Ohio
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#157
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#223
Pace71.3#118
Improvement+1.9#64

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#106
First Shot+3.5#87
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#236
Layup/Dunks+1.8#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#110
Freethrows+0.3#160
Improvement+0.4#141

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#248
First Shot-2.5#254
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#168
Layups/Dunks-2.5#261
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#152
Freethrows+0.5#159
Improvement+1.4#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 15.2% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 72.4% 76.6% 55.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 83.9% 76.4%
Conference Champion 15.8% 17.0% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.3%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.2%
First Round14.3% 15.1% 11.0%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 413 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 114   @ James Madison L 78-88 28%     0 - 1 -3.7 +6.0 -9.5
  Nov 09, 2024 193   UNC Asheville W 82-76 67%     1 - 1 +1.6 +2.6 -1.2
  Nov 12, 2024 170   @ Illinois St. L 75-85 42%     1 - 2 -7.7 +9.1 -17.8
  Nov 15, 2024 32   @ Memphis L 70-94 8%     1 - 3 -8.1 -2.4 -3.9
  Nov 21, 2024 128   Middle Tennessee L 81-83 OT 44%     1 - 4 -0.3 -2.7 +2.7
  Nov 22, 2024 309   Portland W 85-73 77%     2 - 4 +4.4 -0.6 +3.6
  Nov 24, 2024 138   Texas St. L 65-74 46%     2 - 5 -7.6 +1.3 -10.0
  Nov 30, 2024 275   Robert Morris W 84-68 81%     3 - 5 +6.8 +8.9 -2.2
  Dec 07, 2024 266   Morehead St. W 77-68 81%    
  Dec 14, 2024 195   @ Marshall L 78-79 45%    
  Dec 18, 2024 238   Austin Peay W 74-67 76%    
  Jan 04, 2025 196   @ Central Michigan L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 07, 2025 331   @ Buffalo W 81-74 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 338   Northern Illinois W 82-68 90%    
  Jan 14, 2025 270   Ball St. W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 131   @ Akron L 77-81 35%    
  Jan 21, 2025 299   @ Eastern Michigan W 76-71 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 110   Kent St. L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 28, 2025 203   Toledo W 83-78 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 198   @ Miami (OH) L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 04, 2025 271   Western Michigan W 81-72 80%    
  Feb 11, 2025 267   @ Bowling Green W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 110   @ Kent St. L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 18, 2025 196   Central Michigan W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 131   Akron W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 25, 2025 271   @ Western Michigan W 78-75 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 198   Miami (OH) W 77-72 67%    
  Mar 04, 2025 299   Eastern Michigan W 79-68 82%    
  Mar 07, 2025 203   @ Toledo L 80-81 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.6 4.4 2.9 1.0 0.2 15.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.7 6.3 4.1 1.0 0.1 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.0 6.5 3.3 0.5 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 6.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 5.7 3.0 0.3 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.9 7.5 10.6 13.0 14.2 13.7 12.1 9.2 5.4 3.0 1.0 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 96.8% 2.9    2.6 0.3
15-3 80.9% 4.4    3.2 1.2 0.1
14-4 49.9% 4.6    2.1 1.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 18.3% 2.2    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 9.6 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 51.0% 51.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 42.5% 42.5% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-2 3.0% 36.1% 36.1% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9
15-3 5.4% 30.4% 30.4% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 3.8
14-4 9.2% 26.7% 26.7% 13.6 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 6.7
13-5 12.1% 20.3% 20.3% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 9.7
12-6 13.7% 16.1% 16.1% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 11.5
11-7 14.2% 12.3% 12.3% 14.8 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 12.4
10-8 13.0% 9.4% 9.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 11.7
9-9 10.6% 6.9% 6.9% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 9.9
8-10 7.5% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 7.2
7-11 4.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 4.8
6-12 2.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.7 3.9 1.6 85.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.0 11.1 22.2 55.6 3.7 7.4