Preseason Rankings
Ohio
Mid-American
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#145
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.5#40
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#123
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#192
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.5% 15.1% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.7 13.4
.500 or above 71.9% 81.4% 58.1%
.500 or above in Conference 81.9% 86.7% 75.0%
Conference Champion 16.9% 20.6% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.7% 1.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round12.5% 15.1% 8.7%
Second Round1.3% 1.7% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 59.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 9
Quad 412 - 317 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 140   Arkansas St. W 79-76 59%    
  Nov 06, 2025 109   Illinois St. L 75-76 49%    
  Nov 11, 2025 49   @ St. Mary's L 60-73 11%    
  Nov 15, 2025 11   @ Louisville L 69-89 4%    
  Nov 19, 2025 246   Bethune-Cookman W 80-72 77%    
  Nov 24, 2025 99   George Mason L 68-72 35%    
  Dec 03, 2025 290   Maine W 76-65 83%    
  Dec 06, 2025 187   Marshall W 79-73 69%    
  Dec 13, 2025 120   St. Bonaventure L 70-72 45%    
  Dec 20, 2025 220   Bowling Green W 80-73 73%    
  Dec 30, 2025 299   @ Central Michigan W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 03, 2026 291   @ Eastern Michigan W 79-74 66%    
  Jan 06, 2026 173   Massachusetts W 81-76 66%    
  Jan 10, 2026 334   Buffalo W 86-72 88%    
  Jan 13, 2026 180   @ Toledo L 79-80 48%    
  Jan 16, 2026 244   @ Ball St. W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 20, 2026 316   Northern Illinois W 84-71 85%    
  Jan 24, 2026 104   Akron L 81-82 47%    
  Jan 27, 2026 126   @ Kent St. L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 31, 2026 334   @ Buffalo W 83-75 75%    
  Feb 03, 2026 286   Western Michigan W 82-71 81%    
  Feb 14, 2026 128   @ Miami (OH) L 76-80 35%    
  Feb 17, 2026 244   Ball St. W 79-71 75%    
  Feb 21, 2026 316   @ Northern Illinois W 81-74 70%    
  Feb 28, 2026 180   Toledo W 82-77 67%    
  Mar 03, 2026 173   @ Massachusetts L 78-79 46%    
  Mar 06, 2026 128   Miami (OH) W 79-77 56%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 4.8 4.5 2.4 0.7 16.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.8 5.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 5.0 4.1 1.2 0.1 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.3 3.5 0.8 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.2 0.9 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.5 2.6 2.9 0.9 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.4 0.8 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.8 6.8 8.4 10.4 11.7 12.3 12.2 10.5 7.9 5.3 2.4 0.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 98.7% 2.4    2.2 0.2
16-2 85.2% 4.5    3.4 1.1 0.0
15-3 60.4% 4.8    2.6 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 30.7% 3.2    1.2 1.4 0.6 0.1
13-5 8.9% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.9% 16.9 10.4 4.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 55.3% 53.1% 2.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 4.9%
17-1 2.4% 44.3% 43.5% 0.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 1.5%
16-2 5.3% 36.5% 36.5% 12.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.4
15-3 7.9% 28.4% 28.4% 12.6 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.7
14-4 10.5% 19.6% 19.6% 12.9 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 8.4
13-5 12.2% 15.7% 15.7% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.3
12-6 12.3% 10.0% 10.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 11.0
11-7 11.7% 6.9% 6.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.9
10-8 10.4% 4.8% 4.8% 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 9.9
9-9 8.4% 2.3% 2.3% 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.2
8-10 6.8% 1.2% 1.2% 18.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
7-11 4.8% 0.2% 0.2% 24.0 0.0 4.8
6-12 3.0% 3.0
5-13 1.8% 1.8
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.5% 12.4% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.6 3.7 2.3 1.1 0.4 87.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 7.5 1.2 48.8 50.0
Lose Out 0.0%