Ohio
Mid-American
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#72
Expected Predictive Rating+13.6#33
Pace71.1#126
Improvement-2.2#327

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#45
First Shot+5.5#35
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#194
Layup/Dunks+1.0#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#32
Freethrows-1.6#276
Improvement-1.5#312

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#117
First Shot-0.1#177
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#80
Layups/Dunks-1.0#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#106
Freethrows-0.2#199
Improvement-0.7#253
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 2.0% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 1.4% 5.5% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.6% 46.7% 30.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.7% 17.1% 4.3%
Average Seed 11.6 10.3 11.9
.500 or above 99.2% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 99.2% 97.8%
Conference Champion 39.0% 49.9% 37.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.6% 5.8% 2.2%
First Round31.4% 43.5% 29.7%
Second Round9.6% 17.0% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 5.2% 2.4%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.6% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LSU (Away) - 12.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 37 - 39 - 7
Quad 415 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 66   Belmont W 92-80 60%     1 - 0 +16.3 +14.2 +1.4
  Nov 13, 2021 164   @ Cleveland St. W 67-56 65%     2 - 0 +14.1 -0.3 +15.0
  Nov 15, 2021 289   Robert Morris W 85-71 93%     3 - 0 +4.0 +1.7 +1.6
  Nov 19, 2021 12   @ Kentucky L 59-77 14%     3 - 1 +0.5 -0.6 -0.5
  Nov 22, 2021 297   Mount St. Mary's W 73-59 94%     4 - 1 +3.7 +4.6 +0.4
  Dec 01, 2021 10   @ LSU L 70-82 12%    
  Dec 04, 2021 272   St. Francis (PA) W 84-68 93%    
  Dec 11, 2021 270   @ Stetson W 77-67 82%    
  Dec 15, 2021 114   Marshall W 86-79 73%    
  Dec 21, 2021 337   South Carolina Upstate W 86-64 98%    
  Dec 28, 2021 263   Eastern Michigan W 84-69 92%    
  Jan 01, 2022 295   @ Western Michigan W 79-68 85%    
  Jan 04, 2022 165   @ Akron W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 08, 2022 139   Kent St. W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 11, 2022 225   Bowling Green W 84-71 88%    
  Jan 15, 2022 300   @ Central Michigan W 85-73 85%    
  Jan 18, 2022 138   @ Miami (OH) W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 22, 2022 115   Toledo W 81-74 73%    
  Jan 25, 2022 310   Northern Illinois W 78-60 95%    
  Jan 29, 2022 70   @ Buffalo L 80-83 39%    
  Feb 01, 2022 211   Ball St. W 84-72 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 295   Western Michigan W 82-65 94%    
  Feb 08, 2022 115   @ Toledo W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 12, 2022 263   @ Eastern Michigan W 81-72 79%    
  Feb 15, 2022 138   Miami (OH) W 78-70 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 139   @ Kent St. W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 22, 2022 300   Central Michigan W 88-70 94%    
  Feb 26, 2022 165   Akron W 75-65 80%    
  Mar 01, 2022 225   @ Bowling Green W 81-74 72%    
  Mar 04, 2022 310   @ Northern Illinois W 75-63 85%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.9 6.8 10.8 9.9 6.1 1.9 39.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.0 8.1 7.7 4.2 1.0 0.1 26.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 5.7 3.7 1.1 0.1 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.0 1.0 0.2 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.8 6.1 9.0 12.3 15.0 15.7 15.1 10.8 6.1 1.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
19-1 98.8% 6.1    5.8 0.3
18-2 91.0% 9.9    8.2 1.7 0.0
17-3 71.3% 10.8    7.2 3.3 0.3
16-4 43.7% 6.8    3.3 2.8 0.7 0.1
15-5 19.2% 2.9    0.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 39.0% 39.0 27.3 9.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.9% 90.3% 63.8% 26.5% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 73.2%
19-1 6.1% 74.5% 54.8% 19.7% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.6 43.7%
18-2 10.8% 57.7% 45.9% 11.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.6 21.8%
17-3 15.1% 42.7% 37.6% 5.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.4 1.2 0.1 8.7 8.3%
16-4 15.7% 31.1% 29.4% 1.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.8 2.3%
15-5 15.0% 26.0% 25.8% 0.2% 12.7 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 11.1 0.3%
14-6 12.3% 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 10.0 0.0%
13-7 9.0% 14.8% 14.8% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 7.7
12-8 6.1% 11.8% 11.8% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.4
11-9 3.8% 7.9% 7.9% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.5
10-10 2.1% 7.1% 7.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9
9-11 1.1% 3.2% 3.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
8-12 0.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.0 0.0 0.6
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 32.6% 28.6% 4.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.8 5.3 11.3 7.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 67.4 5.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.5 5.3 17.9 26.3 32.6 12.6 3.2 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 6.8 8.0 12.0 24.0 24.0 12.0 16.0 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 88.9% 7.3 11.1 18.5 11.1 7.4 11.1 3.7 14.8 11.1