Eastern Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#260
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#193
Pace77.1#34
Improvement-2.2#328

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#279
First Shot-4.0#292
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#173
Layup/Dunks-6.5#344
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#189
Freethrows+0.0#180
Improvement-0.8#266

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#230
First Shot+0.8#143
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#309
Layups/Dunks-1.0#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#71
Freethrows+1.4#105
Improvement-1.4#288
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.2
.500 or above 9.3% 17.7% 6.5%
.500 or above in Conference 20.1% 27.4% 17.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 9.3% 15.8%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 83 - 15
Quad 48 - 511 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 34   @ Indiana L 62-68 4%     0 - 1 +8.8 -7.4 +16.7
  Nov 12, 2021 241   Illinois St. W 103-98 2OT 57%     1 - 1 -2.1 -2.3 -1.1
  Nov 18, 2021 197   @ Northern Kentucky L 73-74 25%     1 - 2 +0.4 +3.8 -3.4
  Nov 20, 2021 22   @ Michigan St. L 59-83 3%     1 - 3 -7.2 -8.7 +3.7
  Nov 24, 2021 191   Western Illinois W 72-68 46%     2 - 3 -0.3 -10.6 +9.9
  Nov 28, 2021 86   @ DePaul L 63-101 9%     2 - 4 -28.6 -12.5 -12.4
  Dec 02, 2021 193   @ UC San Diego L 70-77 25%    
  Dec 08, 2021 180   Niagara L 68-69 44%    
  Dec 11, 2021 226   Florida International W 70-69 50%    
  Dec 20, 2021 204   @ Valparaiso L 67-74 28%    
  Dec 28, 2021 76   @ Ohio L 68-83 9%    
  Jan 01, 2022 72   Buffalo L 77-86 19%    
  Jan 04, 2022 296   @ Western Michigan L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 08, 2022 214   Ball St. L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 11, 2022 304   Central Michigan W 81-75 69%    
  Jan 15, 2022 312   @ Northern Illinois L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 18, 2022 137   Kent St. L 70-74 34%    
  Jan 22, 2022 165   @ Akron L 65-74 23%    
  Jan 25, 2022 224   @ Bowling Green L 74-80 31%    
  Jan 29, 2022 136   Miami (OH) L 71-76 35%    
  Feb 01, 2022 117   Toledo L 74-80 31%    
  Feb 05, 2022 137   @ Kent St. L 67-77 18%    
  Feb 08, 2022 72   @ Buffalo L 74-89 9%    
  Feb 12, 2022 76   Ohio L 71-80 21%    
  Feb 15, 2022 304   @ Central Michigan L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 165   Akron L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 22, 2022 312   Northern Illinois W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 26, 2022 214   @ Ball St. L 75-81 28%    
  Mar 01, 2022 296   Western Michigan W 75-70 67%    
  Mar 04, 2022 136   @ Miami (OH) L 68-79 17%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.5 2.1 3.3 2.0 0.3 8.3 6th
7th 1.1 3.3 4.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.7 6.0 2.6 0.6 0.0 15.4 8th
9th 0.5 2.1 6.3 5.6 2.9 0.4 17.7 9th
10th 0.3 2.4 5.2 5.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 14.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.5 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.4 12th
Total 0.1 1.0 2.6 5.7 9.3 11.1 13.9 13.0 12.9 10.5 7.6 5.3 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 51.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 20.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.1
15-5 0.4% 15.5% 15.5% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.9% 3.0% 3.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.9
13-7 2.2% 2.7% 2.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 2.1
12-8 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.4
11-9 5.3% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.1 0.0 5.2
10-10 7.6% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 7.5
9-11 10.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.3
8-12 12.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.9
7-13 13.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.9
6-14 13.9% 13.9
5-15 11.1% 11.1
4-16 9.3% 9.3
3-17 5.7% 5.7
2-18 2.6% 2.6
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%