Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#304
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#280
Pace74.4#65
Improvement+0.7#119

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#233
First Shot+1.2#141
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#337
Layup/Dunks-6.1#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#36
Freethrows-0.3#205
Improvement-0.1#192

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#333
First Shot-5.4#327
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#222
Layups/Dunks-1.7#244
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#275
Freethrows-0.2#202
Improvement+0.9#95
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 1.0% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 16.0 15.6
.500 or above 1.3% 9.4% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 6.5% 13.6% 6.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 34.5% 22.7% 34.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 1.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 2.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 40 - 9
Quad 32 - 82 - 17
Quad 46 - 68 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 132   @ Missouri L 68-78 11%     0 - 1 -4.7 +1.3 -6.1
  Nov 13, 2021 86   @ DePaul L 66-99 6%     0 - 2 -23.6 -9.9 -10.5
  Nov 15, 2021 347   @ Eastern Illinois W 62-61 61%     1 - 2 -9.8 -13.2 +3.4
  Nov 22, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 54-107 1%     1 - 3 -31.5 -16.6 -9.4
  Nov 23, 2021 177   Bellarmine L 69-76 25%     1 - 4 -7.9 -1.2 -7.2
  Nov 29, 2021 12   @ Kentucky L 57-85 2%     1 - 5 -9.5 -6.3 -3.9
  Dec 01, 2021 37   @ Xavier L 64-86 2%    
  Dec 05, 2021 191   Western Illinois L 77-81 35%    
  Dec 08, 2021 279   @ Youngstown St. L 73-78 33%    
  Dec 11, 2021 252   Illinois-Chicago L 73-74 50%    
  Dec 18, 2021 231   @ Detroit Mercy L 75-83 23%    
  Dec 28, 2021 137   @ Kent St. L 67-80 12%    
  Jan 01, 2022 136   @ Miami (OH) L 69-82 12%    
  Jan 04, 2022 117   Toledo L 75-83 23%    
  Jan 08, 2022 296   Western Michigan W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 11, 2022 260   @ Eastern Michigan L 75-81 31%    
  Jan 15, 2022 76   Ohio L 72-84 15%    
  Jan 18, 2022 72   @ Buffalo L 75-93 5%    
  Jan 22, 2022 214   Ball St. L 78-81 40%    
  Jan 25, 2022 165   Akron L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 29, 2022 312   @ Northern Illinois L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 01, 2022 224   Bowling Green L 78-80 42%    
  Feb 05, 2022 72   Buffalo L 78-90 15%    
  Feb 08, 2022 214   @ Ball St. L 75-84 22%    
  Feb 12, 2022 296   @ Western Michigan L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 15, 2022 260   Eastern Michigan W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 117   @ Toledo L 72-86 11%    
  Feb 22, 2022 76   @ Ohio L 69-87 6%    
  Feb 26, 2022 137   Kent St. L 70-77 26%    
  Mar 01, 2022 136   Miami (OH) L 72-79 26%    
  Mar 04, 2022 165   @ Akron L 66-77 17%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 5 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 1.9 2.1 1.1 0.1 6.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.6 1.3 0.2 9.6 8th
9th 0.4 2.4 5.3 4.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 14.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.3 7.0 5.2 1.6 0.1 18.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.5 5.4 7.7 5.2 1.2 0.0 21.2 11th
12th 1.6 4.9 6.8 6.7 3.0 0.8 0.1 23.8 12th
Total 1.6 5.1 8.3 13.0 14.4 15.6 12.9 10.6 7.6 4.6 3.4 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 91.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.2
13-7 0.4% 0.4
12-8 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.8
11-9 1.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-10 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.4
9-11 4.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.5
8-12 7.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.5
7-13 10.6% 10.6
6-14 12.9% 12.9
5-15 15.6% 15.6
4-16 14.4% 14.4
3-17 13.0% 13.0
2-18 8.3% 8.3
1-19 5.1% 5.1
0-20 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%