Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#264
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#160
Pace65.6#269
Improvement+3.8#42

Offense
Total Offense-7.0#338
First Shot-7.0#343
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#181
Layup/Dunks-1.6#239
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#296
Freethrows-1.8#298
Improvement-2.9#321

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#123
First Shot+0.8#145
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#84
Layups/Dunks+0.7#157
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#46
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#211
Freethrows-1.1#261
Improvement+6.7#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.1% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round1.9% 2.0% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 61.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 33 - 34 - 9
Quad 413 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 34   @ Oklahoma L 59-89 4%     0 - 1 -15.4 -8.0 -6.3
  Nov 11, 2023 281   Louisiana Monroe L 64-74 64%     0 - 2 -18.9 -9.8 -9.6
  Nov 13, 2023 75   @ Florida St. L 67-94 9%     0 - 3 -17.1 -2.6 -13.4
  Nov 15, 2023 102   @ South Florida W 68-63 11%     1 - 3 +13.0 -1.4 +14.3
  Nov 20, 2023 355   Siena W 70-56 82%     2 - 3 -0.9 +0.5 +0.1
  Nov 21, 2023 196   Stetson L 61-71 39%     2 - 4 -12.3 -5.3 -8.8
  Nov 29, 2023 63   @ Ohio St. L 61-88 7%     2 - 5 -15.4 -7.7 -8.1
  Dec 06, 2023 304   Valparaiso W 71-67 70%     3 - 5 -6.5 -5.5 -0.9
  Dec 09, 2023 10   @ Creighton L 64-109 2%     3 - 6 -25.5 -2.4 -21.6
  Dec 21, 2023 353   Detroit Mercy W 75-63 87%     4 - 6 -5.5 -9.2 +3.6
  Dec 30, 2023 95   @ Loyola Chicago L 35-73 10%     4 - 7 -29.3 -29.9 -0.4
  Jan 02, 2024 344   Buffalo L 64-76 83%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -27.4 -15.1 -12.5
  Jan 06, 2024 270   @ Ball St. W 71-65 40%     5 - 8 1 - 1 +3.4 +3.9 +0.0
  Jan 09, 2024 329   @ Eastern Michigan W 80-64 59%     6 - 8 2 - 1 +8.5 +6.7 +2.4
  Jan 13, 2024 170   Kent St. W 77-62 43%     7 - 8 3 - 1 +11.8 +13.8 +0.3
  Jan 16, 2024 154   @ Ohio L 61-73 21%     7 - 9 3 - 2 -8.8 -9.6 +0.1
  Jan 19, 2024 143   Toledo W 65-62 34%     8 - 9 4 - 2 +2.0 -14.6 +16.5
  Jan 23, 2024 247   Miami (OH) W 71-55 57%     9 - 9 5 - 2 +9.1 -0.6 +10.7
  Jan 27, 2024 299   @ Western Michigan W 62-55 49%     10 - 9 6 - 2 +2.2 -9.6 +12.1
  Jan 30, 2024 314   Northern Illinois W 84-77 2OT 74%     11 - 9 7 - 2 -4.8 -4.5 -1.0
  Feb 03, 2024 235   @ Bowling Green W 77-76 2OT 34%     12 - 9 8 - 2 +0.1 -0.2 +0.2
  Feb 06, 2024 103   @ Akron L 47-68 12%     12 - 10 8 - 3 -13.3 -15.7 +0.0
  Feb 10, 2024 271   @ Old Dominion W 58-57 40%     13 - 10 -1.6 -8.3 +6.8
  Feb 17, 2024 299   Western Michigan W 69-42 69%     14 - 10 9 - 3 +16.8 -6.9 +24.0
  Feb 20, 2024 235   Bowling Green W 62-60 OT 55%     15 - 10 10 - 3 -4.4 -18.4 +13.8
  Feb 24, 2024 247   @ Miami (OH) L 60-88 36%     15 - 11 10 - 4 -29.5 -9.2 -22.2
  Feb 27, 2024 270   Ball St. W 67-64 62%    
  Mar 02, 2024 170   @ Kent St. L 63-70 24%    
  Mar 05, 2024 314   @ Northern Illinois W 68-67 54%    
  Mar 08, 2024 329   Eastern Michigan W 69-61 78%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 7.4 4.4 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 7.9 31.4 22.8 2.0 64.3 3rd
4th 2.4 11.9 6.2 20.5 4th
5th 1.1 0.2 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 3.7 20.1 38.9 30.3 7.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 8.1% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3
13-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 7.0% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.7
13-5 30.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 29.6
12-6 38.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 38.3
11-7 20.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 19.8
10-8 3.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.0% 3.7% 14.7 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.3
Lose Out 3.7% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 1.1