Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.5 #293
Expected Predictive Rating -9.0 #304
Pace 67.4 #219
Improvement +4.3 #25

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #262 D+ C C- D+ D+
Defense #294 C- F C- C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #168 1.11 #235 -0.6 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #58 0.80 #109 +3.1 #43
Three Pointers 34% #322 0.92 #302 -5.3 #332
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #259 -2.8 #258
Freethrows 0.28 #281 70% #269 0.19 #294
Second Chance 28.5% #242 1.08 #104 0.31 #187
Turnovers 18.0% #251
Total Offense -3.4 #262

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #53 1.21 #250 -4.0 #311
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #295 0.71 #97 +1.9 #51
Three Pointers 40% #223 1.04 #222 +0.1 #179
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #247 -2.0 #245
Freethrows 0.35 #302 70% #63 0.24 #270
Second Chance 34.9% #325 1.23 #357 0.43 #359
Turnovers 15.8% #250
Total Defense -4.1 #294

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #292 1.7% #320
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.9% #237 2.2% #220
Possession Length 18.3 #291 16.7 #92
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #180 0.22 #315
Improvement +1.3 #102 +3.0 #39

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.6% 22.4% 26.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 41.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 33 - 53 - 12
Quad 45 - 98 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 172 Appalachian St. W 82 - 66 37% +12  1 - 0 +12 +16 A+ C D- -3 A+ F D
 Sat, Nov 8 120 @Bradley L 54 - 85 11% -14  1 - 1 -25 -15 F D D -11 F C C
 Thu, Nov 13 199 South Alabama L 64 - 66 31% -3  1 - 2 -4 +0 F+ B- C -5 A- F C-
 Fri, Nov 14 364 Coppin St. W 82 - 59 89% +13  2 - 2 +2 -2 F+ B B- +4 A+ F F
 Thu, Nov 20 196 Northern Kentucky L 66 - 90 41% -13  2 - 3 -29 -8 D A F -22 F F C-
 Sat, Nov 22 94 @Marquette L 71 - 85 7% -5  2 - 4 -5 +1 D F+ A+ -7 F+ C C-
 Tue, Dec 2 270 @Loyola Chicago L 72 - 83 34% -2  2 - 5 -14 +1 C+ C D- -16 C F F
 Sun, Dec 7 25 @Saint Louis L 65 - 107 2% -23  2 - 6 -23 +2 B C D- -25 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 13 216 @Stony Brook L 55 - 78 24% -16  2 - 7 -23 -13 F D+ B+ -13 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 308 @Northern Illinois L 73 - 74 44% +10  2 - 8 0 - 1 -7 +3 D+ A+ D -10 C+ F C+
 Mon, Dec 22 37 @Wisconsin L 61 - 88 2% -15  2 - 9 -10 -3 D D- A- -9 F A- C+
 Tue, Dec 30 190 Ohio L 64 - 80 40% -5  2 - 10 0 - 2 -21 -18 F+ F D -2 B C- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 162 Toledo L 75 - 78 34% +5  2 - 11 0 - 3 -6 -2 D+ D A+ -4 B+ C+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 64 @Akron L 69 - 82 5% -10  2 - 12 0 - 4 -1 -1 C F F+ -0 F F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 143 Kent St. W 87 - 85 29% +1  3 - 12 1 - 4 +0 +10 D A+ A+ -10 B+ F C+
 Tue, Jan 13 92 @Miami (OH) L 61 - 100 7% -17  3 - 13 1 - 5 -30 -10 D- F D- -20 F F D
 Tue, Jan 20 305 Ball St. L 67 - 68 65% -5  3 - 14 1 - 6 -12 +2 B- D+ D+ -15 F+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 279 @Western Michigan L 65 - 77 36% -3  3 - 15 1 - 7 -16 -10 F C D -6 B- D+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 227 Eastern Michigan W 100 - 65 47% +9  4 - 15 2 - 7 +28 +19 A+ C A +7 C C- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 148 Bowling Green W 62 - 59 30% -4  5 - 15 3 - 7 +1 -11 F A C+ +12 A+ A+ C-
 Tue, Feb 3 174 @Massachusetts L 89 - 95 19% +1  5 - 16 3 - 8 -4 +17 A+ A+ F -21 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 301 @Louisiana L 66 - 68 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 308 Northern Illinois W 74 - 70 65%
 Tue, Feb 17 227 @Eastern Michigan L 67 - 74 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 279 Western Michigan W 77 - 75 58%
 Tue, Feb 24 143 @Kent St. L 71 - 83 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 198 @Buffalo L 72 - 80 23%
 Tue, Mar 3 64 Akron L 73 - 86 11%
 Fri, Mar 6 305 @Ball St. L 68 - 70 43%
Totals 8 - 21 5 - 13 -7 -3 D+ C C- -4 C- F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 1.7 0.2 3.1 7th
8th 1.4 6.6 1.4 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 1.9 13.0 5.4 0.1 20.4 9th
10th 0.1 10.3 10.4 0.5 21.3 10th
11th 3.4 14.2 2.0 19.6 11th
12th 0.4 10.0 5.0 0.1 15.4 12th
13th 4.3 5.0 0.4 9.6 13th
Total 4.7 18.5 31.8 26.8 13.6 3.8 0.8 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.8% 0.8
8-10 3.8% 3.8
7-11 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.6
6-12 26.8% 26.8
5-13 31.8% 31.8
4-14 18.5% 18.5
3-15 4.7% 4.7
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.2%