Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#244
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#273
Pace76.4#41
Improvement-0.1#148

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#260
First Shot-3.1#277
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#160
Layup/Dunks+1.0#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#330
Freethrows-0.1#180
Improvement-0.1#201

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#218
First Shot-2.6#257
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#101
Layups/Dunks-2.8#283
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#249
Freethrows-0.8#227
Improvement+0.0#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.4% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 18.1% 22.4% 7.4%
.500 or above in Conference 41.4% 45.3% 31.7%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.3% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 9.6% 7.9% 14.0%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 71.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 49 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 21   @ Marquette L 73-97 3%     0 - 1 -6.7 -1.9 -1.3
  Nov 13, 2022 356   Eastern Illinois W 76-60 90%     1 - 1 -1.9 -11.9 +8.4
  Nov 17, 2022 166   @ Minnesota L 60-68 24%     1 - 2 -4.8 -6.5 +1.5
  Nov 21, 2022 201   High Point L 67-68 41%     1 - 3 -2.7 -10.0 +7.4
  Nov 23, 2022 299   Cal St. Northridge W 82-66 64%     2 - 3 +8.3 +5.2 +3.1
  Nov 26, 2022 160   @ California Baptist L 61-77 23%     2 - 4 -12.6 -6.7 -6.3
  Dec 07, 2022 294   Robert Morris W 75-69 72%    
  Dec 10, 2022 169   @ Tulsa L 74-81 26%    
  Dec 18, 2022 112   @ Missouri St. L 63-74 15%    
  Dec 21, 2022 139   Youngstown St. L 77-80 39%    
  Dec 29, 2022 58   @ Michigan L 67-83 7%    
  Jan 03, 2023 286   Miami (OH) W 80-75 69%    
  Jan 07, 2023 263   @ Eastern Michigan L 77-79 43%    
  Jan 10, 2023 266   @ Northern Illinois L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 14, 2023 190   Buffalo L 79-80 50%    
  Jan 17, 2023 137   Akron L 65-68 38%    
  Jan 21, 2023 157   @ Ohio L 70-78 24%    
  Jan 24, 2023 271   Bowling Green W 79-75 65%    
  Jan 28, 2023 312   Western Michigan W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 31, 2023 54   @ Kent St. L 65-81 7%    
  Feb 04, 2023 102   @ Toledo L 77-89 14%    
  Feb 07, 2023 186   Ball St. L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 11, 2023 286   @ Miami (OH) L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 14, 2023 271   @ Bowling Green L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 18, 2023 157   Ohio L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 21, 2023 190   @ Buffalo L 77-83 30%    
  Feb 25, 2023 266   Northern Illinois W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 28, 2023 102   Toledo L 80-86 30%    
  Mar 03, 2023 312   @ Western Michigan W 75-73 56%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.9 4.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.2 5.4 1.8 0.1 12.1 6th
7th 0.3 3.4 6.1 2.2 0.2 12.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 6.1 2.7 0.3 11.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 5.0 3.2 0.3 0.0 10.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 4.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.9 8.5 11.2 13.7 14.1 12.7 10.4 7.7 5.2 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 69.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 48.4% 0.3    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 22.0% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 8.9% 8.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.7% 7.4% 7.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-4 1.5% 6.1% 6.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
13-5 3.1% 4.7% 4.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0
12-6 5.2% 3.7% 3.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.0
11-7 7.7% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.1 0.2 7.5
10-8 10.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.2
9-9 12.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.6
8-10 14.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.0
7-11 13.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.7
6-12 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.2
5-13 8.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.5
4-14 5.9% 5.9
3-15 3.2% 3.2
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%