Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#275
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#242
Pace70.4#162
Improvement-2.4#335

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#251
First Shot-0.1#181
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#329
Layup/Dunks+4.0#59
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#297
Freethrows-0.9#225
Improvement-0.9#263

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#276
First Shot+1.1#134
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#347
Layups/Dunks+2.6#88
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#341
Freethrows+1.0#126
Improvement-1.6#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 7.5% 9.9% 2.9%
.500 or above in Conference 17.1% 19.7% 12.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 19.1% 16.9% 23.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Home) - 65.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 48 - 510 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 258 Coastal Carolina W 76-71 58%     1 - 0 -3.3 -3.7 +0.0
  Sun, Nov 9 226 @Campbell L 82-91 30%     1 - 1 -9.9 -2.0 -6.7
  Wed, Nov 12 241 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83-71 55%     2 - 1 +4.5 -1.4 +4.9
  Sun, Nov 16 265 @South Dakota L 78-83 37%     2 - 2 -7.9 +3.4 -11.3
  Thu, Nov 20 24 @Ohio St. L 58-91 2%     2 - 3 -15.6 -8.9 -5.6
  Sun, Nov 23 301 Mount St. Mary's W 83-60 67%     3 - 3 +12.3 +7.7 +5.3
  Sat, Nov 29 209 @Valparaiso L 55-84 27%     3 - 4 -29.0 -11.5 -19.7
  Wed, Dec 3 306 Southern Indiana W 79-75 66%    
  Sat, Dec 6 204 @SIU Edwardsville L 66-73 27%    
  Sun, Dec 14 26 @Iowa L 59-82 1%    
  Sat, Dec 20 210 Buffalo L 75-76 50%    
  Tue, Dec 30 170 @Toledo L 74-82 22%    
  Tue, Jan 6 126 @Miami (OH) L 71-83 14%    
  Sat, Jan 10 200 Eastern Michigan L 71-72 47%    
  Tue, Jan 13 183 Massachusetts L 75-77 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 54 @Akron L 72-91 4%    
  Tue, Jan 20 117 Bowling Green L 70-77 28%    
  Sat, Jan 24 310 Central Michigan W 76-71 67%    
  Tue, Jan 27 329 @Northern Illinois W 76-75 52%    
  Tue, Feb 3 211 @Ohio L 75-81 29%    
  Wed, Feb 11 170 Toledo L 77-79 42%    
  Sat, Feb 14 200 @Eastern Michigan L 68-75 27%    
  Tue, Feb 17 54 Akron L 75-88 12%    
  Sat, Feb 21 310 @Central Michigan L 73-74 46%    
  Tue, Feb 24 117 @Bowling Green L 67-80 13%    
  Sat, Feb 28 126 Miami (OH) L 74-80 30%    
  Tue, Mar 3 305 Ball St. W 73-69 65%    
  Fri, Mar 6 124 @Kent St. L 74-86 14%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.1 1.2 0.1 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 4.3 2.2 0.2 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 4.4 3.5 0.5 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.6 5.5 1.1 0.0 12.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.3 6.5 2.1 0.1 13.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 4.2 7.0 2.8 0.2 0.0 14.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 4.3 6.1 2.9 0.3 14.9 12th
13th 0.3 1.8 3.4 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.9 13th
Total 0.3 2.0 4.6 8.6 12.5 15.1 15.1 13.8 10.9 7.6 4.9 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 63.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 29.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 9.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.2% 12.5% 12.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.5% 6.4% 6.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 1.3% 5.7% 5.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
11-7 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
10-8 4.9% 2.0% 2.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.8
9-9 7.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 7.5
8-10 10.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.8
7-11 13.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.8
6-12 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.1
5-13 15.1% 15.1
4-14 12.5% 12.5
3-15 8.6% 8.6
2-16 4.6% 4.6
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%