Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#296
Expected Predictive Rating-1.1#198
Pace65.5#270
Improvement+1.7#54

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#222
First Shot-0.2#184
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#261
Layup/Dunks-1.1#214
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#78
Freethrows-0.3#207
Improvement+1.2#61

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#330
First Shot-5.5#328
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#197
Layups/Dunks-8.4#354
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#197
Freethrows+0.6#154
Improvement+0.5#133
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.9 15.7
.500 or above 3.8% 6.5% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 9.7% 11.9% 8.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.6% 20.1% 27.9%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 42.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 32 - 72 - 15
Quad 47 - 59 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 22   @ Michigan St. L 46-90 2%     0 - 1 -27.2 -17.1 -9.1
  Nov 22, 2021 19   @ Iowa L 61-109 2%     0 - 2 -30.6 -15.1 -10.5
  Nov 26, 2021 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 67-77 20%     0 - 3 -8.3 -5.9 -2.6
  Nov 27, 2021 274   Purdue Fort Wayne W 93-85 OT 46%     1 - 3 +1.8 +13.4 -11.7
  Nov 28, 2021 327   SE Louisiana W 81-77 OT 61%     2 - 3 -6.1 -2.9 -3.5
  Dec 05, 2021 204   Valparaiso L 67-69 42%    
  Dec 11, 2021 231   @ Detroit Mercy L 70-77 26%    
  Dec 20, 2021 63   @ Notre Dame L 62-80 5%    
  Dec 29, 2021 117   @ Toledo L 68-81 11%    
  Jan 01, 2022 76   Ohio L 68-79 16%    
  Jan 04, 2022 260   Eastern Michigan W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 08, 2022 304   @ Central Michigan L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 11, 2022 72   Buffalo L 73-84 15%    
  Jan 15, 2022 136   Miami (OH) L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 18, 2022 165   @ Akron L 62-72 18%    
  Jan 22, 2022 224   Bowling Green L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 25, 2022 137   @ Kent St. L 63-75 14%    
  Jan 29, 2022 214   @ Ball St. L 71-79 23%    
  Feb 01, 2022 312   Northern Illinois W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 05, 2022 76   @ Ohio L 65-82 6%    
  Feb 08, 2022 136   @ Miami (OH) L 65-77 13%    
  Feb 12, 2022 304   Central Michigan W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 15, 2022 165   Akron L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 19, 2022 72   @ Buffalo L 70-87 6%    
  Feb 22, 2022 117   Toledo L 71-78 26%    
  Feb 26, 2022 224   @ Bowling Green L 70-78 26%    
  Mar 01, 2022 260   @ Eastern Michigan L 70-75 33%    
  Mar 04, 2022 214   Ball St. L 74-76 42%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.4 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.2 4.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.9 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 4.5 4.2 1.5 0.3 11.7 8th
9th 0.3 2.7 6.0 5.2 1.7 0.2 16.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.5 7.5 5.4 2.2 0.2 19.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 4.5 6.4 4.8 1.2 0.2 18.6 11th
12th 0.8 2.6 4.7 4.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 15.6 12th
Total 0.8 2.7 6.3 10.3 12.4 15.7 13.9 12.7 9.3 6.3 4.4 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 57.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.2% 0.2
14-6 0.4% 0.4
13-7 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 0.6
12-8 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 1.4
11-9 2.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 2.7
10-10 4.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 4.3
9-11 6.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.2
8-12 9.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.2
7-13 12.7% 12.7
6-14 13.9% 13.9
5-15 15.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.7
4-16 12.4% 12.4
3-17 10.3% 10.3
2-18 6.3% 6.3
1-19 2.7% 2.7
0-20 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%