Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#312
Expected Predictive Rating-13.2#329
Pace66.4#243
Improvement-0.7#358

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#230
First Shot-2.8#268
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#121
Layup/Dunks-6.7#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#235
Freethrows+0.4#152
Improvement-0.2#285

Defense
Total Defense-6.9#333
First Shot-5.4#321
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#277
Layups/Dunks-1.7#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#313
Freethrows-0.1#178
Improvement-0.4#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 7.7% 10.2% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 39.2% 33.5% 43.9%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 45.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 46 - 96 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 166   @ Minnesota L 60-61 13%     0 - 1 +2.2 -3.3 +5.4
  Nov 13, 2022 276   @ Valparaiso L 65-81 28%     0 - 2 -18.8 -11.3 -6.8
  Nov 18, 2022 340   @ Houston Christian W 90-84 51%     1 - 2 -3.2 +10.3 -13.8
  Nov 19, 2022 278   @ Rice L 88-96 28%     1 - 3 -10.8 +7.9 -18.6
  Nov 20, 2022 292   Georgia Southern L 57-63 43%     1 - 4 -13.0 -11.3 -2.4
  Nov 26, 2022 202   Cleveland St. L 49-71 34%     1 - 5 -26.7 -18.1 -11.8
  Nov 30, 2022 74   @ Dayton L 47-67 5%     1 - 6 -9.6 -8.5 -4.5
  Dec 10, 2022 253   Illinois-Chicago L 71-72 45%    
  Dec 18, 2022 33   @ Iowa St. L 55-78 2%    
  Dec 30, 2022 35   @ Wisconsin L 54-77 2%    
  Jan 03, 2023 54   @ Kent St. L 60-81 2%    
  Jan 06, 2023 102   @ Toledo L 72-89 6%    
  Jan 10, 2023 263   Eastern Michigan L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 14, 2023 271   Bowling Green L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 17, 2023 186   @ Ball St. L 68-79 16%    
  Jan 21, 2023 137   Akron L 61-69 23%    
  Jan 24, 2023 157   @ Ohio L 66-79 13%    
  Jan 28, 2023 244   @ Central Michigan L 70-78 24%    
  Jan 31, 2023 266   Northern Illinois L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 04, 2023 190   Buffalo L 75-80 33%    
  Feb 07, 2023 286   @ Miami (OH) L 73-78 31%    
  Feb 11, 2023 266   @ Northern Illinois L 69-75 28%    
  Feb 14, 2023 54   Kent St. L 63-78 9%    
  Feb 18, 2023 186   Ball St. L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 21, 2023 263   @ Eastern Michigan L 72-79 28%    
  Feb 25, 2023 137   @ Akron L 58-72 10%    
  Feb 28, 2023 286   Miami (OH) W 76-75 52%    
  Mar 03, 2023 244   Central Michigan L 73-75 44%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.3 2.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.3 2.8 4.6 1.3 0.1 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.0 5.8 2.5 0.2 11.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.4 7.3 3.9 0.3 15.5 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 5.0 8.4 5.1 0.8 0.0 20.5 11th
12th 1.2 4.4 8.2 8.2 4.2 0.8 0.0 27.0 12th
Total 1.2 4.4 9.3 13.6 16.2 16.5 13.7 10.4 7.0 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 6.3% 0.0    0.0
13-5 12.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9
10-8 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
9-9 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.0
8-10 7.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.9
7-11 10.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.3
6-12 13.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.7
5-13 16.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.5
4-14 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.2
3-15 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.6
2-16 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.3
1-17 4.4% 4.4
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%