Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +17.6 21
Expected Predictive Rating +18.8 16
Pace 69.1 171
Improvement +2.2 93

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #16 A B- B D+ C-
Defense B+ #28 B+ B+ C+ B A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 341 64% 64 -2.5 265
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 180 47% 17 +1.8 82
Three Pointers 48% 39 41% 3 +9.2 6
1st FG Attempt 1.19 13 +8.6 13
Second Chance 34.6% 67 1.02 184 0.35 91
Turnovers 14.7% 51
Freethrows 0.27 289 73% 167 0.20 269
Total Offense +10.3 16

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 337 56% 128 +4.9 37
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 2 38% 160 -4.5 362
Three Pointers 36% 315 29% 18 +5.3 9
1st FG Attempt 0.91 38 +5.6 38
Second Chance 24.5% 19 1.00 135 0.24 34
Turnovers 17.5% 144
Freethrows 0.28 87 67% 8 0.19 47
Total Defense +7.3 28

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 259 -2.0 7
Shot Type Accuracy +9.0 5 -3.6 53
Possession Length 16.7 113 17.8 267
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 208 0.09 11
Improvement +0.7 #140 +1.5 #104

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 4.1% 4.6% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 34.1% 36.2% 17.8%
Top 6 Seed 78.8% 81.0% 62.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.9% 99.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.9% 99.6%
Average Seed 5.2 5.1 6.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 98.5%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
Second Round81.7% 82.7% 73.8%
Sweet Sixteen39.6% 40.6% 32.0%
Elite Eight16.1% 16.6% 12.3%
Final Four6.7% 6.9% 4.6%
Championship Game2.6% 2.7% 2.0%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.7%

Next Game: Colorado (Home) - 88.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 9
Quad 26 - 113 - 10
Quad 36 - 019 - 10
Quad 44 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 244 Lindenwood W 98 - 60 98% +19  87% 1 - 0 A+ +30 A +12 B D A+ A+ +15 A A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 7 120 Sam Houston St. W 98 - 77 94% +8  80% 2 - 0 A +21 A+ +21 A- A+ B C -1 A- D- B
 Tue, Nov 11 6 @Illinois L 77 - 81 26% -4  11% 2 - 1 A +20 B+ +8 A+ C- F A +12 A- A- A
 Fri, Nov 14 268 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 63 98% +4  69% 3 - 1 B- +8 B +5 D+ A B B- +4 B- D A
 Thu, Nov 20 72 Wake Forest W 84 - 83 82% +2  56% 4 - 1 B +9 B +6 B+ B- B B- +3 B- C+ F+
 Fri, Nov 21 9 Purdue L 56 - 86 39% -17  3% 4 - 2 D -9 F+ -9 F B- A C- -2 F+ A- B+
 Wed, Nov 26 224 New Orleans W 82 - 50 98% +12  92% 5 - 2 A+ +26 C +0 D+ A D A+ +25 A+ A- A
 Sun, Nov 30 105 Wyoming W 76 - 72 93% +2  69% 6 - 2 B- +5 C+ +3 C+ B- B B- +3 C+ A+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 56 LSU W 82 - 58 77% +18  98% 7 - 2 A+ +34 B+ +9 A C F+ A+ +25 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 17 Arkansas L 86 - 93 49% +2  80% 7 - 3 B +11 A+ +21 A+ A- A+ F+ -11 C F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 175 Northern Colorado W 101 - 90 97% +7  97% 8 - 3 B- +7 A+ +24 A+ D A+ F -17 F F D
 Sat, Dec 20 3 Duke W 82 - 81 29% -4  30% 9 - 3 A+ +24 A+ +18 A+ A- A B+ +6 D A+ C
 Sun, Dec 28 132 Winthrop W 87 - 57 95% +26  99% 10 - 3 A+ +29 B+ +9 A- B- D- A+ +20 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 59 Oklahoma St. W 102 - 80 86% +12  95% 11 - 3 1 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +20 A+ A A+ B+ +6 B A F
 Tue, Jan 6 5 @Houston L 65 - 69 23% +0  53% 11 - 4 1 - 1 A +21 B- +5 B B B+ A+ +16 A+ B D
 Sat, Jan 10 70 @Colorado W 73 - 71 74% +9  76% 12 - 4 2 - 1 B+ +13 C+ +2 B- D B+ A +11 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 14 108 Utah W 88 - 74 93% +11  98% 13 - 4 3 - 1 A- +15 A- +9 A+ B+ C B +5 C+ A B
 Sat, Jan 17 20 BYU W 84 - 71 61% +1  54% 14 - 4 4 - 1 A+ +28 A +12 A B- B+ A+ +15 A+ A+ B+
 Tue, Jan 20 42 @Baylor W 92 - 73 58% +16  99% 15 - 4 5 - 1 A+ +35 A+ +25 A+ D+ D- A +10 B+ B B-
 Sat, Jan 24 5 Houston W 90 - 86 43% +1  46% 16 - 4 6 - 1 A+ +23 A+ +30 A A+ A+ D -7 D B+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 52 @Central Florida L 80 - 88 66% -4  3% 16 - 5 6 - 2 B- +5 A- +10 A+ D+ D+ D+ -4 A- F F
 Mon, Feb 2 12 Kansas L 61 - 64 56% +1  55% 16 - 6 6 - 3 B+ +13 D -5 B D B A+ +18 A+ B+ A+
 Sun, Feb 8 55 @West Virginia W 70 - 63 67% +8  98% 17 - 6 7 - 3 A +20 A- +10 A+ F B- A +11 A+ B- D+
 Wed, Feb 11 70 Colorado W 86 - 73 89%
 Sat, Feb 14 2 @Arizona L 74 - 84 18%
 Tue, Feb 17 68 @Arizona St. W 82 - 76 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 88 Kansas St. W 88 - 74 91%
 Tue, Feb 24 51 Cincinnati W 77 - 67 83%
 Sat, Feb 28 8 @Iowa St. L 72 - 78 29%
 Tue, Mar 3 48 TCU W 79 - 69 82%
 Sat, Mar 7 20 @BYU L 81 - 84 39%
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 6 +18 A- +10 A B- B B+ +7 B+ B+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B A A A 31% 21% 48% C- A B C B- B D+ C D+ B+ C+ C A- B 31% 33% 36% A+ B+ A- C+ B+ C+ B- A B
1.23 64% 47% 41% +9 -1 1.19 35% 1.0 .35 15% .27 73% .20 0.98 56% 38% 29% -4 -2 0.91 25% 1.0 .24 17% .28 67% .18
Nov
4		 Lindenwood A D+ B- A B+ 28% 15% 57% D B A F D A+ C+ D- C- A+ A- A- A A 32% 30% 38% A A A A+ A+ C- F C+ F+
1.28 56% 40% 41% +5 0 1.12 42% 0.7 .29 9% .33 65% .22 0.78 47% 25% 25% -12 -2 0.74 23% 0.5 .13 18% .42 65% .27
Nov
7		 Sam Houston St. A+ C+ B+ A A 29% 20% 51% D+ A- A+ C+ A+ B A+ D- A+ C B- B+ F+ B 28% 43% 28% A+ A- F C+ D- B F C+ F+
1.39 62% 44% 39% +6 -1 1.13 50% 1.1 .55 16% .72 65% .47 1.09 53% 30% 40% -2 -4 0.91 45% 0.9 .43 20% .35 70% .25
Nov
11		 Illinois B+ A+ A+ F+ A+ 29% 34% 37% C A+ C C- C- F F B+ F+ A D+ D A B+ 35% 25% 40% A A- A+ D+ A- A F+ A+ D+
1.07 82% 55% 27% +9 -2 1.15 23% 0.9 .20 18% .07 75% .05 1.13 67% 46% 29% +2 -1 1.04 32% 1.3 .41 18% .39 70% .27
Nov
14		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee B B+ D- B- C 24% 26% 50% F D+ A+ C- A B F A+ C- B- D- D- A+ C 23% 43% 34% A+ B- C+ F D A D+ F+ D
1.23 67% 31% 36% +2 -2 1.02 42% 1.1 .47 14% .25 93% .23 0.97 64% 45% 19% -3 -4 0.87 30% 1.3 .40 20% .29 73% .21
Nov
20		 Wake Forest B C+ B A- A 19% 26% 55% F B+ A D- B- B B- C+ B- B- A- C+ F C+ 39% 30% 30% A B- A- F C+ F+ C- A+ B+
1.12 60% 43% 38% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.9 .36 19% .34 76% .26 1.10 50% 41% 41% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.4 .37 11% .33 59% .19
Nov
21		 Purdue F+ B F F F 16% 22% 63% C F C- A+ B- A B F C C- F+ F F F 24% 52% 24% A+ F+ C- A+ A- B+ C+ A- B
0.84 63% 27% 22% -13 -2 0.73 21% 1.3 .29 14% .24 57% .14 1.30 75% 54% 58% +21 -5 1.34 38% 0.9 .35 17% .27 67% .18
Nov
26		 New Orleans C D F B D+ 38% 25% 37% D D+ A- B+ A D A- F C- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 40% 33% 27% B+ A+ A+ F A- A A+ A+ A+
1.16 50% 31% 37% -3 -1 0.94 43% 1.2 .50 17% .43 60% .26 0.71 58% 25% 8% -15 -2 0.69 17% 1.5 .26 24% .24 62% .15
Nov
30		 Wyoming C+ A+ B- F B 38% 29% 33% F C+ A- D+ B- B A+ F B B- D- F A+ D+ 33% 37% 29% A+ C+ A- A+ A+ B A F B-
1.12 72% 43% 25% +2 -1 1.04 33% 0.8 .28 15% .52 60% .31 1.06 65% 58% 20% +4 -3 1.04 30% 0.7 .20 19% .24 100% .24
Dec
7		 LSU B+ C D- A+ A+ 34% 19% 47% C+ A B+ D C F+ B- A- B A+ C+ B A+ A+ 18% 44% 38% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D B+ A+ A
1.16 56% 30% 48% +8 0 1.17 35% 0.8 .27 20% .32 72% .23 0.82 60% 33% 19% -10 -4 0.73 20% 0.9 .18 13% .31 63% .19
Dec
13		 Arkansas A+ B+ F A A+ 47% 9% 45% A A+ A- C+ A- A+ F+ F F F+ B C+ F C+ 52% 16% 32% F+ C F C F D+ F A+ D-
1.29 63% 20% 38% +4 +2 1.14 37% 1.3 .47 11% .17 30% .05 1.40 58% 38% 50% +7 +2 1.20 46% 1.3 .57 11% .44 65% .29
Dec
16		 Northern Colorado A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 28% 22% 50% D- A+ F A+ D A+ B B- B F F F+ F F 34% 23% 43% B F F F F D A A+ A+
1.47 80% 75% 44% +22 -1 1.44 15% 1.5 .23 4% .37 79% .29 1.31 74% 46% 42% +12 -1 1.25 38% 1.4 .53 15% .14 50% .07
Dec
20		 Duke A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 39% 24% 37% B- A+ C+ A+ A- A A D- B B+ D+ F F D- 40% 7% 53% C+ D A+ D A+ C F A+ D
1.16 70% 58% 37% +11 0 1.24 23% 1.1 .27 16% .29 65% .19 1.15 67% 67% 42% +12 +2 1.29 21% 1.3 .28 16% .49 59% .29
Dec
28		 Winthrop B+ C- A+ A- A 33% 14% 53% C+ A- B- C+ B- D- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% B+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ C
1.23 56% 71% 38% +8 0 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 20% .46 88% .41 0.81 35% 70% 14% -14 0 0.73 36% 0.4 .16 21% .41 65% .27
Jan
3		 Oklahoma St. A+ C+ B- A+ A+ 19% 30% 51% F A+ B A A A+ F+ A D B+ C- A- C+ B 42% 18% 40% A- B A+ D A F A- C B+
1.34 58% 42% 47% +11 -3 1.19 33% 1.3 .43 9% .20 79% .16 1.05 60% 27% 33% -1 +1 1.00 19% 1.1 .21 10% .28 74% .20
Jan
6		 Houston B- D A+ D+ B 29% 16% 55% B- B D+ A+ B B+ F A+ D A+ C- B A+ A+ 22% 48% 30% A+ A+ A D+ B D F C+ F
0.98 50% 50% 30% -4 0 0.94 25% 1.3 .31 21% .21 91% .19 1.04 67% 35% 25% -4 -5 0.85 31% 1.1 .33 9% .36 77% .28
Jan
10		 Colorado C+ A- F B+ B 32% 23% 46% C B- A F D B+ F F F A B+ D+ A A+ 37% 27% 35% B+ A+ A+ C A+ D- D+ F F+
1.07 67% 23% 38% +2 -1 1.05 36% 0.6 .22 13% .17 40% .07 1.04 53% 43% 28% -4 -1 0.92 19% 1.0 .19 10% .36 86% .31
Jan
14		 Utah A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 24% 50% F+ A+ A- B- B+ C F F F B C+ A+ F C 36% 23% 42% B+ C+ A+ C- A B B- B- B-
1.23 60% 64% 41% +12 -1 1.24 37% 1.1 .40 15% .08 60% .05 1.03 58% 8% 50% +3 0 1.08 18% 1.0 .18 18% .29 71% .20
Jan
17		 BYU A C+ B- A- A- 33% 20% 47% A A B- C- B- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D A- A+ A+ 30% 33% 37% A A+ A- A A+ B+ A F B
1.20 59% 40% 38% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.1 .33 14% .38 83% .32 1.01 69% 33% 25% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 17% .24 86% .21
Jan
20		 Baylor A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 10% 40% 50% D A+ F+ B- D+ D- D- A D+ A F C- B C+ 10% 51% 39% A+ B+ A- C- B B- D+ A+ A
1.37 80% 52% 62% +29 -5 1.50 22% 1.0 .22 19% .20 82% .17 1.08 100% 44% 32% +6 -6 1.02 32% 1.2 .38 16% .35 50% .18
Jan
24		 Houston A+ C F+ A+ A+ 24% 26% 50% D A A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D F D- F F+ 17% 42% 40% A+ D A C+ B+ D F D+ F
1.38 55% 25% 43% +3 -2 1.04 55% 1.0 .58 15% .54 80% .44 1.32 78% 45% 43% +12 -4 1.17 32% 1.0 .32 9% .36 81% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Central Florida A- A+ A+ B+ A+ 34% 11% 55% B A+ F+ A D+ D+ F F F D+ D A+ D+ B+ 38% 42% 20% A+ A- D F F F D- F+ F
1.16 78% 67% 38% +13 +1 1.30 15% 1.3 .19 19% .21 58% .12 1.27 67% 26% 36% -1 -3 0.95 41% 1.6 .66 9% .35 82% .29
Feb
2		 Kansas D F A+ B- B+ 14% 29% 57% F B B F D B F F+ F A+ F+ C A+ A 22% 39% 39% A+ A+ A+ F B+ A+ A C A-
0.88 13% 47% 33% -4 -3 0.88 30% 0.5 .15 13% .08 60% .05 0.92 73% 37% 26% -2 -3 0.92 16% 2.0 .32 22% .24 77% .18
Feb
8		 West Virginia A- F A A+ A+ 35% 15% 50% B- A+ F C- F B- C A+ B A F C A+ A+ 41% 20% 39% B- A+ A- F+ B- D+ F A+ C-
1.08 41% 43% 54% +10 +1 1.23 7% 1.0 .07 17% .24 85% .21 0.98 75% 40% 5% -9 0 0.84 26% 1.3 .34 14% .41 57% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 0.6 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.6 0.6 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.8 12.3 4.6 0.1 19.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 15.7 11.3 0.4 30.1 4th
5th 1.4 13.4 12.9 1.1 28.7 5th
6th 0.2 4.2 6.0 0.4 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.3 3.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.2 1.9 8.0 22.3 31.8 25.6 8.9 1.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 48.1% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 4.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.3% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 2.4 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.9% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 3.3 0.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 0.8 0.1 100.0%
13-5 25.6% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 4.2 0.1 1.2 5.3 8.6 7.5 2.6 0.4 100.0%
12-6 31.8% 100.0% 5.1% 94.9% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.0 10.1 9.4 3.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 22.3% 99.8% 3.0% 96.8% 6.2 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.6 7.2 6.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 8.0% 99.4% 2.1% 97.3% 7.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 99.4%
9-9 1.9% 97.3% 2.2% 95.1% 8.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 97.2%
8-10 0.2% 95.5% 95.5% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.5%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 5.7% 94.2% 5.2 0.2 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.9 37.5 45.8 4.2 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 2.4 8.2 49.0 34.7 8.2