Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#17
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#136
Pace66.0#257
Improvement+0.9#106

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#25
First Shot+5.0#43
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#64
Layup/Dunks+4.2#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#204
Freethrows+1.5#87
Improvement-0.4#224

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#19
First Shot+7.3#17
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#161
Layups/Dunks+6.5#15
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#262
Freethrows+2.5#41
Improvement+1.2#70
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.2% 0.4%
#1 Seed 4.6% 6.0% 2.2%
Top 2 Seed 10.6% 13.7% 5.3%
Top 4 Seed 27.3% 33.9% 16.2%
Top 6 Seed 46.5% 54.5% 32.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.9% 85.6% 70.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.0% 83.3% 66.8%
Average Seed 5.8 5.4 6.6
.500 or above 97.0% 98.6% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 79.4% 83.3% 72.6%
Conference Champion 15.3% 18.0% 10.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.5% 2.5%
First Four2.5% 1.7% 3.9%
First Round78.8% 84.9% 68.6%
Second Round58.2% 64.1% 48.2%
Sweet Sixteen31.0% 36.3% 22.1%
Elite Eight15.3% 18.2% 10.3%
Final Four7.1% 8.6% 4.5%
Championship Game3.3% 4.2% 1.7%
National Champion1.5% 1.9% 0.9%

Next Game: Providence (Away) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 8
Quad 25 - 112 - 10
Quad 32 - 014 - 10
Quad 49 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 288   North Florida W 89-74 98%     1 - 0 +5.2 +6.8 -2.1
  Nov 12, 2021 324   Grambling St. W 88-62 99%     2 - 0 +13.7 +10.6 +2.9
  Nov 15, 2021 242   Prairie View W 84-49 97%     3 - 0 +27.8 +4.4 +22.4
  Nov 20, 2021 350   Incarnate Word W 84-62 99%     4 - 0 +7.3 +6.3 +2.2
  Nov 23, 2021 335   Nebraska Omaha W 96-40 99%     5 - 0 +40.9 +20.0 +23.4
  Nov 27, 2021 319   Lamar W 89-57 98%     6 - 0 +20.1 +10.7 +10.3
  Dec 01, 2021 54   @ Providence W 70-67 63%    
  Dec 07, 2021 18   Tennessee W 69-68 50%    
  Dec 14, 2021 229   Arkansas St. W 79-58 97%    
  Dec 18, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 73-80 26%    
  Dec 22, 2021 203   Eastern Washington W 82-63 97%    
  Dec 28, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 84-54 99.7%   
  Jan 01, 2022 32   Oklahoma St. W 71-65 70%    
  Jan 05, 2022 59   @ Iowa St. W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 08, 2022 9   Kansas W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 11, 2022 3   @ Baylor L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 15, 2022 91   @ Kansas St. W 67-61 70%    
  Jan 18, 2022 59   Iowa St. W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 22, 2022 45   West Virginia W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 24, 2022 9   @ Kansas L 71-76 31%    
  Jan 29, 2022 38   Mississippi St. W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 01, 2022 11   Texas W 65-63 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 45   @ West Virginia W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 09, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 12, 2022 90   TCU W 73-61 85%    
  Feb 16, 2022 3   Baylor L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 19, 2022 11   @ Texas L 62-66 36%    
  Feb 22, 2022 35   Oklahoma W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 26, 2022 90   @ TCU W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 28, 2022 91   Kansas St. W 70-58 85%    
  Mar 05, 2022 32   @ Oklahoma St. L 67-68 49%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 2.5 4.4 4.0 2.5 0.9 0.1 15.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.2 6.1 4.2 0.8 0.0 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.7 6.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.4 2.1 7.3 5.7 1.6 0.2 17.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 5.5 3.9 1.0 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 3.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 2.6 1.8 0.3 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.0 0.2 4.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.5 5.7 7.7 10.7 13.8 13.6 12.7 11.2 8.9 4.8 2.6 0.9 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9
16-2 98.2% 2.5    2.3 0.2
15-3 83.6% 4.0    3.0 0.9 0.1
14-4 49.0% 4.4    1.8 2.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 22.6% 2.5    0.7 1.3 0.5 0.1
12-6 6.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.3% 15.3 9.1 4.7 1.3 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 49.2% 50.8% 1.0 0.1 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.6% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.8% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 2.4 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.9% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 3.1 0.9 2.1 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.2% 99.8% 18.6% 81.2% 4.2 0.3 1.0 2.5 2.8 2.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.8%
12-6 12.7% 99.6% 14.7% 85.0% 5.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 2.9 2.9 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.6%
11-7 13.6% 97.4% 10.8% 86.6% 6.6 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 3.1 3.2 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.1%
10-8 13.8% 93.1% 8.2% 84.9% 7.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.8 2.8 3.0 2.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 1.0 92.5%
9-9 10.7% 78.3% 5.6% 72.7% 8.6 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.3 2.3 77.0%
8-10 7.7% 41.9% 2.9% 39.0% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.5 40.1%
7-11 5.7% 15.3% 3.0% 12.3% 10.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 4.8 12.7%
6-12 3.5% 4.1% 1.2% 2.9% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.4 2.9%
5-13 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 14.0 0.0 1.9
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 79.9% 12.6% 67.3% 5.8 4.6 6.0 8.1 8.6 9.3 9.9 10.6 8.6 6.0 4.2 3.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 20.1 77.0%