BYU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.8 #12
Expected Predictive Rating +21.4 #11
Pace 72.6 #84
Improvement -3.1 #316

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #12 B+ A+ A- B- C
Defense #18 A+ C C+ A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #260 1.37 #12 +2.2 #103
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #166 0.87 #51 +1.4 #100
Three Pointers 43% #139 1.04 #159 +1.6 #127
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #50 +5.1 #50
Freethrows 18.2 #137 76% #80 13.8 #118
Second Chance 37.6% #24 1.25 #13 0.47 #8
Turnovers 13.9% #36
Total Offense +10.4 #12

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #355 1.10 #98 +7.0 #17
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #9 0.61 #18 -1.4 #286
Three Pointers 42% #152 0.82 #7 +3.7 #50
1st FG Attempt 0.83 #5 +9.3 #5
Freethrows 12.6 #14 68% #33 8.6 #10
Second Chance 27.9% #84 1.17 #319 0.33 #197
Turnovers 17.4% #119
Total Defense +8.4 #18

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #224 -3.9% #7
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.5% #33 -14.8% #7
Possession Length 15.1 #23 18.6 #337
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #16 0.14 #82
Improvement -2.4 #314 -0.7 #231

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
#1 Seed 6.8% 7.1% 2.6%
Top 2 Seed 22.4% 23.0% 10.7%
Top 4 Seed 72.6% 73.7% 52.6%
Top 6 Seed 95.8% 96.3% 87.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 3.7 3.6 4.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 98.3% 89.0%
Conference Champion 9.8% 10.2% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Second Round91.0% 91.5% 83.3%
Sweet Sixteen56.1% 56.8% 44.8%
Elite Eight26.8% 27.3% 17.8%
Final Four12.8% 13.2% 6.7%
Championship Game6.0% 6.1% 2.8%
National Champion2.5% 2.6% 0.9%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 94.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b6 - 111 - 7
Quad 26 - 016 - 8
Quad 34 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 33 Villanova W 71 - 66 69% +6  1 - 0 +19 +6 C- D A+ +13 A+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 8 318 Holy Cross W 98 - 53 99% +28  2 - 0 +32 +17 A+ F A+ +14 A+ C- A
 Tue, Nov 11 294 Delaware W 85 - 68 99% -0  3 - 0 +6 +21 C A+ B+ -12 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 7 Connecticut L 84 - 86 44% -9  3 - 1 +18 +18 A+ A+ C +1 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 41 Wisconsin W 98 - 70 72% +12  4 - 1 +41 +24 B+ A+ A+ +15 A+ A- A-
 Thu, Nov 27 36 Miami (FL) W 72 - 62 70% +3  5 - 1 +23 +7 B+ C B- +17 A+ C+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 66 Dayton W 83 - 79 84% -0  6 - 1 +12 +12 A+ C+ A +0 D+ B A-
 Wed, Dec 3 144 California Baptist W 66 - 44 94% +18  7 - 1 +23 +27 A+ A+ A+ +6 A+ C+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 28 Clemson W 67 - 64 66% -5  8 - 1 +17 +13 D+ A+ A +4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 291 UC Riverside W 100 - 53 99% +14  9 - 1 +37 +15 A+ D+ C +18 A+ C A+
 Tue, Dec 16 132 Pacific W 93 - 57 96% +18  10 - 1 +35 +17 B- A+ B+ +17 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 256 Abilene Christian W 85 - 67 99% +5  11 - 1 +10 +8 A- A+ F +1 A F A
 Mon, Dec 22 244 Eastern Washington W 109 - 81 98% +9  12 - 1 +21 +23 A+ A+ A+ -4 C+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 80 @Kansas St. W 83 - 73 79% +6  13 - 1 1 - 0 +20 +6 C- A+ F +13 A+ A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 7 84 Arizona St. W 104 - 76 91% +17  14 - 1 2 - 0 +32 +21 A+ B D+ +9 A+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 10 106 @Utah W 89 - 84 85% +4  15 - 1 3 - 0 +12 +13 C A+ C -1 A F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 48 TCU W 76 - 70 84% -0  16 - 1 4 - 0 +14 +9 F A+ A+ +5 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 20 @Texas Tech L 71 - 84 45% -1  16 - 2 4 - 1 +7 +7 C A- C +0 B+ B- C
 Sat, Jan 24 106 Utah W 89 - 72 95%
 Mon, Jan 26 2 Arizona L 81 - 82 46%
 Sat, Jan 31 19 @Kansas L 76 - 78 44%
 Wed, Feb 4 62 @Oklahoma St. W 89 - 82 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 4 Houston W 72 - 71 50%
 Tue, Feb 10 40 @Baylor W 81 - 78 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 78 Colorado W 87 - 73 91%
 Wed, Feb 18 2 @Arizona L 78 - 85 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 10 Iowa St. W 78 - 76 57%
 Tue, Feb 24 47 Central Florida W 86 - 76 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 56 @West Virginia W 75 - 69 70%
 Tue, Mar 3 49 @Cincinnati W 76 - 71 67%
 Sat, Mar 7 20 Texas Tech W 81 - 76 66%
Totals 24 - 7 12 - 6 +19 +10 B+ A+ A- +8 A+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.7 2.6 0.4 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.8 7.5 3.3 0.3 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 5.2 11.7 4.6 0.4 22.4 3rd
4th 0.4 4.2 10.4 4.5 0.3 19.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 7.7 4.5 0.4 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.4 3.2 0.4 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.4 1.2 9th
10th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.5 1.6 4.7 9.7 16.2 20.9 20.5 14.3 8.3 2.9 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 89.9% 2.6    2.0 0.6 0.0
15-3 56.3% 4.7    1.7 2.2 0.8 0.0
14-4 14.2% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 4.3 3.7 1.5 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
16-2 2.9% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.3% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.0 2.4 3.8 1.9 0.2 100.0%
14-4 14.3% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 2.5 1.8 5.0 5.7 1.7 0.1 100.0%
13-5 20.5% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 3.2 0.8 3.7 8.5 6.3 1.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 20.9% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 3.8 0.2 1.5 6.6 8.3 3.8 0.6 0.0 100.0%
11-7 16.2% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 4.4 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.0 5.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 9.7% 100.0% 4.3% 95.7% 5.2 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.9 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 4.7% 100.0% 3.6% 96.4% 6.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 100.0%
8-10 1.6% 99.4% 1.8% 97.5% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.4%
7-11 0.5% 94.1% 2.0% 92.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 94.0%
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 11.3% 88.6% 3.7 0.0 100.0%