BYU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.5#9
Expected Predictive Rating+22.7#11
Pace69.5#185
Improvement+0.4#149

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#7
First Shot+6.4#36
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#6
Layup/Dunks+3.1#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#137
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement+0.2#162

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#14
First Shot+11.2#3
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#342
Layups/Dunks+8.9#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#138
Freethrows+3.8#10
Improvement+0.2#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.6% 2.6% 2.4%
#1 Seed 15.1% 15.1% 7.9%
Top 2 Seed 39.4% 39.5% 22.8%
Top 4 Seed 79.4% 79.5% 61.4%
Top 6 Seed 94.4% 94.4% 85.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.7% 99.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% 99.6% 99.1%
Average Seed 3.2 3.2 4.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.8% 95.8% 90.6%
Conference Champion 16.4% 16.4% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round99.6% 99.6% 98.4%
Second Round91.8% 91.8% 85.8%
Sweet Sixteen61.9% 62.0% 52.8%
Elite Eight32.8% 32.8% 26.0%
Final Four15.7% 15.7% 11.8%
Championship Game7.2% 7.2% 6.3%
National Champion3.2% 3.2% 4.7%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 6
Quad 27 - 117 - 7
Quad 34 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 35 Villanova W 71-66 73%     1 - 0 +18.2 +5.9 +12.4
  Sat, Nov 8 324 Holy Cross W 98-53 99%     2 - 0 +32.2 +15.5 +15.5
  Tue, Nov 11 287 Delaware W 85-68 99%     3 - 0 +7.4 +21.0 -11.1
  Sat, Nov 15 7 Connecticut L 84-86 44%     3 - 1 +19.1 +17.1 +2.1
  Fri, Nov 21 48 Wisconsin W 98-70 79%     4 - 1 +39.0 +24.1 +13.1
  Thu, Nov 27 36 Miami (FL) W 72-62 73%     5 - 1 +23.2 +7.3 +16.0
  Fri, Nov 28 68 Dayton W 83-79 86%     6 - 1 +12.0 +10.1 +1.6
  Wed, Dec 3 130 California Baptist W 66-44 94%     7 - 1 +23.8 +26.7 +7.9
  Tue, Dec 9 40 Clemson W 67-64 75%     8 - 1 +15.3 +10.5 +5.3
  Sat, Dec 13 271 UC Riverside W 100-53 99%     9 - 1 +38.2 +14.6 +20.3
  Tue, Dec 16 137 Pacific W 93-57 96%     10 - 1 +34.4 +18.0 +15.6
  Fri, Dec 19 210 Abilene Christian W 85-67 98%     11 - 1 +11.7 +9.6 +1.8
  Mon, Dec 22 260 Eastern Washington W 93-65 99.6%   
  Sat, Jan 3 60 @Kansas St. W 86-78 76%    
  Wed, Jan 7 62 Arizona St. W 85-71 90%    
  Sat, Jan 10 111 @Utah W 85-72 89%    
  Wed, Jan 14 55 TCU W 79-66 87%    
  Sat, Jan 17 23 @Texas Tech W 77-76 54%    
  Sat, Jan 24 111 Utah W 88-69 96%    
  Mon, Jan 26 2 Arizona L 77-78 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 17 @Kansas L 72-73 48%    
  Wed, Feb 4 53 @Oklahoma St. W 86-80 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 8 Houston W 72-70 59%    
  Tue, Feb 10 30 @Baylor W 82-80 58%    
  Sat, Feb 14 73 Colorado W 86-71 91%    
  Wed, Feb 18 2 @Arizona L 74-81 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 3 Iowa St. W 77-76 50%    
  Tue, Feb 24 51 Central Florida W 86-74 86%    
  Sat, Feb 28 65 @West Virginia W 74-66 77%    
  Tue, Mar 3 67 @Cincinnati W 77-69 77%    
  Sat, Mar 7 23 Texas Tech W 80-73 74%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.4 5.4 2.4 0.4 16.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.5 5.0 1.1 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.9 8.3 5.2 0.8 0.0 18.6 3rd
4th 0.4 3.1 7.8 4.7 0.7 0.0 16.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.5 3.9 0.5 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.9 8.7 12.2 16.5 17.2 15.8 11.2 6.5 2.4 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.6% 2.4    2.1 0.2
16-2 83.0% 5.4    3.5 1.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 48.1% 5.4    2.1 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 15.8% 2.5    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.4% 16.4 8.6 5.4 1.9 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.4% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.5% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 1.5 3.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 11.2% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 1.8 4.2 5.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.8% 100.0% 17.7% 82.3% 2.2 3.2 7.1 4.6 0.8 0.1 100.0%
13-5 17.2% 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 2.7 1.5 5.6 6.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 16.5% 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 3.4 0.4 2.5 6.4 5.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.2% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 4.1 0.1 0.6 2.8 4.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 8.7% 100.0% 3.8% 96.2% 4.9 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 4.9% 99.6% 3.0% 96.6% 5.8 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
8-10 2.6% 98.7% 1.5% 97.2% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7%
7-11 1.1% 93.0% 0.9% 92.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 92.9%
6-12 0.3% 81.6% 1.0% 80.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 81.4%
5-13 0.1% 37.2% 37.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 37.2%
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.7% 12.9% 86.7% 3.2 15.1 24.3 23.3 16.8 9.9 5.1 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 99.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 92.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 84.0 16.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 74.1 22.2 3.7