BYU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.4 #15
Expected Predictive Rating +19.0 #16
Pace 74.1 #49
Improvement -3.7 #329

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #10 B+ A B+ B- C-
Defense #25 A- C+ C+ A- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #306 1.39 #7 +1.2 #134
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #156 0.83 #71 +1.2 #108
Three Pointers 45% #108 1.08 #81 +3.4 #68
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #43 +5.8 #43
Freethrows 0.32 #128 76% #74 0.25 #100
Second Chance 37.8% #21 1.22 #14 0.46 #9
Turnovers 14.2% #36
Total Offense +11.2 #10

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #358 1.10 #107 +7.2 #14
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #7 0.65 #31 -2.3 #333
Three Pointers 42% #157 0.88 #27 +2.6 #81
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #11 +7.5 #11
Freethrows 0.23 #16 69% #49 0.16 #15
Second Chance 25.9% #36 1.11 #296 0.29 #114
Turnovers 17.6% #141
Total Defense +7.2 #25

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #251 -4.1% #5
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.3% #25 -10.9% #26
Possession Length 15.2 #24 18.3 #316
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #26 0.14 #69
Improvement -0.3 #196 -3.4 #334

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.0% 2.6% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 8.8% 11.1% 3.3%
Top 4 Seed 49.9% 56.8% 33.5%
Top 6 Seed 86.4% 90.9% 75.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.8% 99.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% 99.8% 99.1%
Average Seed 4.6 4.3 5.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 98.1% 89.7%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.7%
First Round99.5% 99.8% 98.8%
Second Round86.4% 88.8% 80.5%
Sweet Sixteen48.9% 51.9% 41.8%
Elite Eight21.2% 23.2% 16.6%
Final Four9.0% 9.9% 7.0%
Championship Game3.8% 4.1% 3.0%
National Champion1.4% 1.6% 1.2%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 70.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b6 - 18 - 8
Quad 27 - 115 - 9
Quad 34 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 32 Villanova W 71 - 66 66% +6  1 - 0 +19 +7 C- D+ A+ +13 A+ F C
 Sat, Nov 8 326 Holy Cross W 98 - 53 99% +28  2 - 0 +32 +16 A+ F A+ +14 A+ C- B+
 Tue, Nov 11 288 Delaware W 85 - 68 99% -0  3 - 0 +7 +21 C A+ B -12 D+ C F
 Sat, Nov 15 9 Connecticut L 84 - 86 40% -9  3 - 1 +19 +18 A+ A+ C +2 F C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 37 Wisconsin W 98 - 70 68% +13  4 - 1 +42 +24 A A A+ +16 A+ B B+
 Thu, Nov 27 40 Miami (FL) W 72 - 62 71% +3  5 - 1 +23 +6 B C C+ +17 A+ C+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 88 Dayton W 83 - 79 87% -0  6 - 1 +10 +10 A- C+ B+ -0 D+ B C+
 Wed, Dec 3 133 California Baptist W 91 - 60 93% +18  7 - 1 +33 +21 A A+ B+ +12 A+ A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 9 33 Clemson W 67 - 64 66% -5  8 - 1 +17 +13 D A+ A- +4 A+ C- A
 Sat, Dec 13 291 UC Riverside W 100 - 53 99% +22  9 - 1 +37 +16 A+ D+ B +18 A+ C+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 123 Pacific W 93 - 57 95% +18  10 - 1 +35 +17 B A+ B+ +17 A+ D+ A
 Fri, Dec 19 268 Abilene Christian W 85 - 67 99% +5  11 - 1 +9 +8 B- A+ D +1 A- F B-
 Mon, Dec 22 244 Eastern Washington W 109 - 81 98% +10  12 - 1 +20 +23 A- A+ A -5 C+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 92 @Kansas St. W 83 - 73 81% +6  13 - 1 1 - 0 +19 +6 C A- F +12 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 7 76 Arizona St. W 104 - 76 90% +17  14 - 1 2 - 0 +33 +21 A+ B- C +9 A+ B- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 105 @Utah W 89 - 84 85% +4  15 - 1 3 - 0 +12 +13 C A+ C+ -1 A- F D
 Wed, Jan 14 51 TCU W 76 - 70 85% -0  16 - 1 4 - 0 +13 +9 F A+ A+ +4 A- B+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 19 @Texas Tech L 71 - 84 42% -1  16 - 2 4 - 1 +7 +6 C B C +1 B+ C+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 105 Utah W 91 - 78 94% +6  17 - 2 5 - 1 +14 +24 B- A+ B+ -9 D- A+ F
 Mon, Jan 26 2 Arizona L 83 - 86 39% -8  17 - 3 5 - 2 +18 +15 A B+ B+ +4 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 12 @Kansas L 82 - 90 37% -13  17 - 4 5 - 3 +14 +22 A+ A- A -8 F A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 56 @Oklahoma St. W 89 - 83 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 6 Houston L 74 - 75 50%
 Tue, Feb 10 47 @Baylor W 84 - 80 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 71 Colorado W 89 - 76 89%
 Wed, Feb 18 2 @Arizona L 79 - 88 20%
 Sat, Feb 21 4 Iowa St. L 79 - 80 48%
 Tue, Feb 24 44 Central Florida W 89 - 79 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 57 @West Virginia W 74 - 68 73%
 Tue, Mar 3 52 @Cincinnati W 77 - 72 69%
 Sat, Mar 7 19 Texas Tech W 83 - 79 64%
Totals 23 - 8 11 - 7 +18 +11 B+ A B+ +7 A- C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 0.6 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 3.6 0.5 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 7.2 1.9 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 10.5 5.9 0.1 18.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 8.7 9.8 0.8 20.2 5th
6th 0.6 6.9 10.4 2.2 0.0 20.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 4.4 7.9 2.7 0.1 15.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 3.1 0.9 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.4 8.5 16.8 23.5 24.3 15.3 6.1 1.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 57.4% 0.6    0.2 0.4 0.1
14-4 8.0% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.1% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 1.8 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.1% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 2.5 0.8 2.2 2.2 0.8 0.1 100.0%
13-5 15.3% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 3.2 0.6 2.6 6.4 4.7 1.0 0.1 100.0%
12-6 24.3% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 4.0 0.2 1.1 5.9 10.2 5.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 23.5% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 4.8 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.5 8.9 4.9 0.8 0.0 100.0%
10-8 16.8% 100.0% 3.3% 96.7% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.1 6.1 3.0 0.6 0.1 100.0%
9-9 8.5% 99.3% 2.8% 96.5% 6.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.2 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 99.3%
8-10 3.4% 96.5% 2.1% 94.4% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 96.4%
7-11 0.8% 85.7% 3.6% 82.1% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 85.2%
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.7% 6.9% 92.8% 4.6 0.4 99.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 76.2 23.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 2.0 16.0 66.0 18.0