BYU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#49
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#79
Pace71.4#113
Improvement-2.8#330

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#29
First Shot+3.3#90
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#17
Layup/Dunks-1.7#245
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#105
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#34
Freethrows-1.9#284
Improvement-1.2#278

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#91
First Shot-3.6#297
After Offensive Rebounds+6.4#2
Layups/Dunks+9.3#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#351
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#354
Freethrows-1.6#277
Improvement-1.6#308
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.4% 2.5% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 7.9% 8.1% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.6% 39.5% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.7% 38.5% 18.4%
Average Seed 8.3 8.3 9.1
.500 or above 77.6% 78.8% 49.9%
.500 or above in Conference 43.0% 43.7% 25.6%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 5.9% 12.6%
First Four5.8% 5.8% 4.7%
First Round35.8% 36.6% 16.7%
Second Round19.1% 19.6% 8.7%
Sweet Sixteen6.4% 6.5% 2.8%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.7% 0.8%
Final Four0.9% 0.9% 0.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 95.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 10
Quad 25 - 49 - 14
Quad 33 - 012 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 337   Central Arkansas W 88-50 98%     1 - 0 +24.7 +12.0 +13.5
  Nov 08, 2024 175   UC Riverside W 86-80 90%     2 - 0 +2.2 +6.7 -4.9
  Nov 13, 2024 290   Queens W 99-55 96%     3 - 0 +34.3 +16.5 +15.5
  Nov 16, 2024 265   Idaho W 95-71 95%     4 - 0 +15.1 +12.4 +2.1
  Nov 23, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 87-43 99.5%    5 - 0 +19.8 +15.4 +9.8
  Nov 28, 2024 26   Mississippi L 85-96 OT 38%     5 - 1 +2.5 +4.8 -0.8
  Nov 29, 2024 72   North Carolina St. W 72-61 59%     6 - 1 +18.8 +9.3 +10.4
  Dec 03, 2024 79   @ Providence L 64-83 51%     6 - 2 -8.9 +5.2 -16.6
  Dec 11, 2024 255   Fresno St. W 89-70 96%    
  Dec 14, 2024 177   Wyoming W 80-69 86%    
  Dec 20, 2024 353   Florida A&M W 87-61 99%    
  Dec 31, 2024 51   Arizona St. W 79-76 62%    
  Jan 04, 2025 6   @ Houston L 65-76 15%    
  Jan 07, 2025 24   Texas Tech L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 78   @ TCU W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 14, 2025 81   Oklahoma St. W 82-75 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 60   @ Utah L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 21, 2025 85   @ Colorado W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 25   Cincinnati L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 28, 2025 13   Baylor L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 83   @ Central Florida W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 04, 2025 23   Arizona L 82-83 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 25   @ Cincinnati L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 11, 2025 45   @ West Virginia L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 59   Kansas St. W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 18, 2025 7   Kansas L 75-80 33%    
  Feb 22, 2025 23   @ Arizona L 79-86 28%    
  Feb 26, 2025 51   @ Arizona St. L 76-79 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 45   West Virginia W 75-73 58%    
  Mar 04, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 73-84 17%    
  Mar 08, 2025 60   Utah W 81-77 63%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 4.1 3rd
4th 0.3 1.6 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 3.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.6 3.3 0.7 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.3 2.8 4.2 1.2 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 4.7 2.1 0.1 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 4.0 3.6 0.4 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 0.4 3.0 4.2 0.9 0.0 8.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.1 1.8 0.1 8.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.5 0.3 7.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 6.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.9 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.2 16th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.6 6.0 8.6 11.0 12.2 12.9 11.7 10.4 8.0 5.7 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 89.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 73.4% 0.2    0.2 0.1
16-4 46.1% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 18.3% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 2.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.9% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.0% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 100.0%
14-6 3.8% 99.4% 7.0% 92.3% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
13-7 5.7% 97.1% 3.4% 93.7% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.0%
12-8 8.0% 91.2% 2.7% 88.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.7 91.0%
11-9 10.4% 76.7% 1.5% 75.2% 9.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.1 0.0 2.4 76.4%
10-10 11.7% 55.4% 1.0% 54.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 2.0 0.1 5.2 54.9%
9-11 12.9% 25.1% 0.9% 24.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 0.3 9.7 24.4%
8-12 12.2% 6.8% 0.2% 6.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 11.4 6.6%
7-13 11.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.9 0.8%
6-14 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 8.5
5-15 6.0% 6.0
4-16 3.6% 3.6
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 38.6% 1.5% 37.1% 8.3 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.3 4.7 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.0 0.5 61.4 37.7%