BYU
West Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#20
Expected Predictive Rating+20.7#3
Pace68.8#196
Improvement+1.4#71

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#20
First Shot+4.4#56
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#12
Layup/Dunks+3.3#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#311
Freethrows+2.5#39
Improvement+1.1#75

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#38
First Shot+3.4#72
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#39
Layups/Dunks+1.9#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#24
Freethrows+0.9#141
Improvement+0.4#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.1% 0.4%
#1 Seed 6.1% 6.7% 3.0%
Top 2 Seed 15.5% 17.1% 7.1%
Top 4 Seed 36.0% 39.3% 18.4%
Top 6 Seed 56.8% 60.5% 37.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.6% 95.1% 85.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.1% 93.8% 83.9%
Average Seed 5.8 5.6 6.9
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 98.6% 97.2%
Conference Champion 21.2% 22.2% 15.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.0% 3.5% 6.4%
First Round91.9% 93.6% 82.5%
Second Round63.6% 65.8% 51.7%
Sweet Sixteen32.4% 34.1% 22.9%
Elite Eight15.0% 15.9% 10.1%
Final Four7.0% 7.4% 4.4%
Championship Game3.0% 3.3% 1.8%
National Champion1.5% 1.6% 0.7%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Away) - 84.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 14 - 4
Quad 26 - 210 - 5
Quad 37 - 117 - 6
Quad 46 - 023 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 166   Cleveland St. W 69-59 94%     1 - 0 +6.9 +2.0 +6.0
  Nov 12, 2021 48   San Diego St. W 66-60 77%     2 - 0 +12.6 +3.1 +9.7
  Nov 16, 2021 44   Oregon W 81-49 66%     3 - 0 +42.1 +18.0 +26.2
  Nov 24, 2021 199   Texas Southern W 81-64 95%     4 - 0 +12.2 +4.3 +7.4
  Nov 27, 2021 57   @ Utah W 75-64 63%     5 - 0 +22.0 +13.7 +9.2
  Dec 01, 2021 152   @ Utah Valley W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 04, 2021 93   @ Missouri St. W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 08, 2021 46   Utah St. W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 11, 2021 66   Creighton W 76-69 74%    
  Dec 18, 2021 97   @ Weber St. W 76-70 71%    
  Dec 22, 2021 225   South Florida W 69-52 94%    
  Jan 01, 2022 251   @ Portland W 81-65 93%    
  Jan 06, 2022 187   Pacific W 78-59 96%    
  Jan 08, 2022 41   St. Mary's W 68-61 73%    
  Jan 13, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 74-84 18%    
  Jan 15, 2022 49   @ San Francisco W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 20, 2022 153   @ San Diego W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 22, 2022 251   Portland W 84-62 98%    
  Jan 27, 2022 82   @ Santa Clara W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 187   @ Pacific W 75-62 86%    
  Feb 03, 2022 49   San Francisco W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 05, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 77-81 36%    
  Feb 10, 2022 130   @ Loyola Marymount W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 12, 2022 235   @ Pepperdine W 80-65 91%    
  Feb 19, 2022 41   @ St. Mary's W 65-64 55%    
  Feb 24, 2022 130   Loyola Marymount W 79-64 90%    
  Feb 26, 2022 235   Pepperdine W 83-62 97%    
Projected Record 22 - 5 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.0 8.5 6.4 1.2 21.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 1.1 6.1 15.5 15.1 6.2 44.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 5.2 8.3 4.3 0.5 19.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.7 1.2 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.2 6.3 10.5 15.6 20.9 19.6 14.7 6.4 1.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
15-1 100.0% 6.4    4.9 1.5
14-2 58.1% 8.5    4.0 4.5 0.1
13-3 20.6% 4.0    0.8 2.4 0.8 0.0
12-4 4.8% 1.0    0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0
11-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 21.2% 21.2 10.9 8.9 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.2% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-1 6.4% 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% 1.8 2.5 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 100.0%
14-2 14.7% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 2.9 2.2 4.5 3.6 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-3 19.6% 99.9% 22.1% 77.8% 4.4 0.6 1.7 3.1 5.8 3.7 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-4 20.9% 99.0% 15.3% 83.7% 6.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 4.6 3.7 3.7 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.8%
11-5 15.6% 96.4% 13.5% 82.9% 7.9 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.6 95.8%
10-6 10.5% 88.6% 7.9% 80.7% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.2 2.3 2.0 0.4 1.2 87.6%
9-7 6.3% 72.3% 7.8% 64.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.4 1.8 70.0%
8-8 3.2% 58.0% 5.0% 53.0% 10.6 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.3 55.8%
7-9 1.2% 22.7% 3.4% 19.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 20.0%
6-10 0.2% 25.0% 8.1% 16.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 18.4%
5-11 0.1% 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 93.6% 18.7% 74.9% 5.8 6.1 9.4 8.8 11.7 11.2 9.6 8.3 7.0 7.4 7.3 5.5 1.2 6.4 92.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 69.0 31.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 82.2 17.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 100.0