BYU
West Coast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#81
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#104
Pace74.2#42
Improvement+1.2#46

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#159
First Shot-1.0#221
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#73
Layup/Dunks-0.3#187
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#165
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#233
Freethrows+0.1#172
Improvement+0.3#133

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#34
First Shot+6.2#27
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#185
Layups/Dunks+6.4#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#49
Freethrows-1.0#260
Improvement+0.9#55
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 6.0% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.6 13.7
.500 or above 85.8% 94.2% 69.9%
.500 or above in Conference 59.7% 73.8% 33.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round5.6% 5.8% 5.2%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Home) - 65.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 5
Quad 22 - 43 - 9
Quad 36 - 39 - 12
Quad 47 - 116 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 283   Idaho St. W 60-56 92%     1 - 0 -5.3 -23.1 +17.5
  Nov 11, 2022 33   @ San Diego St. L 75-82 21%     1 - 1 +7.9 +1.4 +7.3
  Nov 16, 2022 136   Missouri St. W 66-64 76%     2 - 1 +1.1 -3.2 +4.4
  Nov 19, 2022 250   Nicholls St. W 87-73 90%     3 - 1 +6.5 +3.1 +2.1
  Nov 23, 2022 44   USC L 76-82 35%     3 - 2 +4.5 +3.2 +1.7
  Nov 24, 2022 86   Butler L 70-75 53%     3 - 3 +0.8 +0.6 +0.2
  Nov 25, 2022 68   Dayton W 79-75 OT 44%     4 - 3 +12.2 +12.5 -0.2
  Dec 03, 2022 286   South Dakota L 68-69 89%     4 - 4 -7.7 -14.0 +6.3
  Dec 07, 2022 99   Utah Valley L 60-75 67%     4 - 5 -13.0 -7.6 -6.1
  Dec 10, 2022 11   Creighton W 83-80 20%     5 - 5 +18.4 +5.4 +12.5
  Dec 17, 2022 51   Utah W 75-66 48%     6 - 5 +16.2 +0.8 +14.5
  Dec 20, 2022 352   Lindenwood W 90-61 97%     7 - 5 +13.0 +9.0 +3.4
  Dec 22, 2022 213   Weber St. W 63-57 86%     8 - 5 +1.1 -4.5 +6.1
  Dec 29, 2022 208   @ Pacific W 69-49 71%     9 - 5 1 - 0 +20.9 -5.6 +26.5
  Dec 31, 2022 166   Portland W 71-58 81%     10 - 5 2 - 0 +10.4 -2.9 +13.9
  Jan 05, 2023 91   @ Loyola Marymount L 59-64 44%     10 - 6 2 - 1 +3.2 -11.0 +14.2
  Jan 07, 2023 216   @ San Diego W 68-48 72%     11 - 6 3 - 1 +20.5 -5.9 +27.3
  Jan 12, 2023 13   Gonzaga L 74-75 29%     11 - 7 3 - 2 +11.2 -0.4 +11.6
  Jan 14, 2023 190   Pepperdine W 91-81 84%     12 - 7 4 - 2 +6.1 +11.2 -5.6
  Jan 19, 2023 93   @ Santa Clara L 76-83 44%     12 - 8 4 - 3 +1.1 -3.0 +4.9
  Jan 21, 2023 88   @ San Francisco L 74-82 43%     12 - 9 4 - 4 +0.4 +1.6 -0.9
  Jan 28, 2023 12   St. Mary's L 56-57 29%     12 - 10 4 - 5 +11.3 +3.4 +7.7
  Feb 02, 2023 91   Loyola Marymount W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 04, 2023 208   Pacific W 80-69 86%    
  Feb 09, 2023 190   @ Pepperdine W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 11, 2023 13   @ Gonzaga L 72-83 14%    
  Feb 16, 2023 93   Santa Clara W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 18, 2023 12   @ St. Mary's L 57-68 14%    
  Feb 25, 2023 88   San Francisco W 75-71 64%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 9.9 4.7 0.4 16.7 3rd
4th 1.0 14.2 10.6 0.8 0.0 26.6 4th
5th 0.2 9.1 13.9 1.1 0.0 24.3 5th
6th 0.0 3.4 13.0 2.1 0.0 18.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.4 3.0 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.1 2.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.3 2.7 11.2 26.2 32.0 21.6 5.6 0.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.5% 32.7% 10.5% 22.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 24.8%
10-6 5.6% 8.9% 7.1% 1.8% 11.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.1 1.9%
9-7 21.6% 6.6% 6.5% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 20.2 0.1%
8-8 32.0% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 30.1 0.0%
7-9 26.2% 4.7% 4.7% 14.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 24.9
6-10 11.2% 4.1% 4.1% 15.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 10.7
5-11 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.6
4-12 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.7% 5.5% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.1 94.3 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 32.7% 10.5 1.2 1.2 12.5 16.5 1.2
Lose Out 0.3% 0.7% 16.0 0.7