BYU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +17.4 20
Expected Predictive Rating +16.8 27
Pace 73.8 55
Improvement -5.7 353

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A #10 B+ A B+ B- C-
Defense B #41 A- C+ C A- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 307 69% 10 +1.0 143
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 156 42% 66 +1.3 106
Three Pointers 44% 117 37% 54 +3.8 59
1st FG Attempt 1.14 37 +6.1 38
Second Chance 37.7% 19 1.19 24 0.45 13
Turnovers 14.0% 32
Freethrows 0.33 118 75% 99 0.24 98
Total Offense +11.5 10

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% 357 57% 153 +6.2 19
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 7 33% 25 -2.3 340
Three Pointers 41% 179 29% 24 +2.9 68
1st FG Attempt 0.88 16 +6.8 16
Second Chance 26.3% 44 1.13 317 0.30 137
Turnovers 17.1% 176
Freethrows 0.24 23 69% 36 0.17 18
Total Defense +5.9 41

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 253 -2.0 7
Shot Type Accuracy +6.5 18 -4.8 37
Possession Length 15.3 24 18.3 323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 22 0.14 82
Improvement -0.1 #179 -5.6 #361

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 2.2% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 17.0% 24.0% 8.1%
Top 6 Seed 56.2% 68.2% 40.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.1% 99.4% 96.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.1% 99.4% 96.4%
Average Seed 6.2 5.7 6.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 92.3% 69.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 0.2% 2.2%
First Round97.7% 99.4% 95.7%
Second Round73.6% 78.6% 67.1%
Sweet Sixteen31.9% 36.8% 25.6%
Elite Eight12.5% 14.7% 9.8%
Final Four5.0% 6.0% 3.7%
Championship Game1.8% 2.3% 1.3%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.5%

Next Game: Baylor (Away) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b6 - 27 - 9
Quad 26 - 113 - 10
Quad 35 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 30 Villanova W 71 - 66 60% +6  88% 1 - 0 A +20 B- +4 C- D+ A+ A+ +16 A+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 8 322 Holy Cross W 98 - 53 99% +28  99% 2 - 0 A+ +32 A +13 A+ F A+ A+ +17 A+ C- A-
 Tue, Nov 11 281 Delaware W 85 - 68 99% -0  36% 3 - 0 B- +7 A+ +18 C A+ B+ D- -8 C- C F
 Sat, Nov 15 8 Connecticut L 84 - 86 36% -9  10% 3 - 1 A +19 A+ +15 A+ A+ B- B +4 F C+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 38 Wisconsin W 98 - 70 64% +13  92% 4 - 1 A+ +42 A+ +22 A A A A+ +18 A+ B+ B+
 Thu, Nov 27 42 Miami (FL) W 72 - 62 68% +3  54% 5 - 1 A +22 C+ +3 B C C+ A+ +19 A+ C+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 97 Dayton W 83 - 79 87% -0  40% 6 - 1 B +9 B +7 A- C+ B C+ +2 D B B-
 Wed, Dec 3 140 California Baptist W 91 - 60 93% +18  98% 7 - 1 A+ +32 A+ +20 A A+ B A+ +13 A+ A B
 Tue, Dec 9 32 Clemson W 67 - 64 60% -5  20% 8 - 1 A +18 A +11 D A+ A- B+ +7 A+ C- A
 Sat, Dec 13 295 UC Riverside W 100 - 53 99% +22  96% 9 - 1 A+ +36 A +13 A+ D+ B A+ +20 A C+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 115 Pacific W 93 - 57 94% +18  99% 10 - 1 A+ +36 A+ +16 B+ A+ B+ A+ +19 A+ D A
 Fri, Dec 19 262 Abilene Christian W 85 - 67 98% +5  67% 11 - 1 B +9 B +6 B A+ D- B- +3 A- F B-
 Mon, Dec 22 228 Eastern Washington W 109 - 81 98% +10  92% 12 - 1 A +21 A+ +21 A- A+ A C -1 B- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 89 @Kansas St. W 83 - 73 78% +6  85% 13 - 1 1 - 0 A +19 C+ +3 C A- F A+ +15 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 7 73 Arizona St. W 104 - 76 88% +17  94% 14 - 1 2 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +19 A+ B- C A +11 A+ B A-
 Sat, Jan 10 108 @Utah W 89 - 84 84% +4  78% 15 - 1 3 - 0 B+ +12 A- +11 C A+ C+ C+ +1 A- F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 53 TCU W 76 - 70 83% -0  35% 16 - 1 4 - 0 B+ +13 B +6 F A+ A+ B+ +7 A- A- D
 Sat, Jan 17 19 @Texas Tech L 71 - 84 38% -1  33% 16 - 2 4 - 1 B- +8 B- +4 C B C+ B- +4 B+ C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 108 Utah W 91 - 78 93% +6  91% 17 - 2 5 - 1 B+ +14 A+ +22 B A+ B+ D -7 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Jan 26 2 Arizona L 83 - 86 34% -8  13% 17 - 3 5 - 2 A +19 A +13 A B+ B+ B +6 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 12 @Kansas L 82 - 90 33% -13  2% 17 - 4 5 - 3 B+ +14 A+ +20 A+ A- A D -6 F A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 57 @Oklahoma St. L 92 - 99 68% -5  8% 17 - 5 5 - 4 B- +6 A +12 A+ B- D D -6 D- D- F
 Sat, Feb 7 5 Houston L 66 - 77 42% -5  5% 17 - 6 5 - 5 B +8 A +12 B- C+ A+ D -6 B F+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 41 @Baylor W 83 - 81 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 69 Colorado W 89 - 77 88%
 Wed, Feb 18 2 @Arizona L 78 - 88 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 7 Iowa St. L 80 - 81 45%
 Tue, Feb 24 52 Central Florida W 90 - 80 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 55 @West Virginia W 74 - 70 65%
 Tue, Mar 3 51 @Cincinnati W 77 - 73 63%
 Sat, Mar 7 19 Texas Tech W 83 - 80 60%
Totals 22 - 9 10 - 8 +17 A +12 B+ A B+ B +6 A- C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A B- B A- 34% 22% 44% C- B+ B+ A- A B+ C+ B- B- B C B+ A- B+ 28% 31% 41% A+ A- B D C+ C B+ B A-
1.25 69% 42% 37% +6 0 1.14 38% 1.2 .45 14% .33 75% .24 1.00 57% 33% 29% -5 -2 0.88 26% 1.1 .30 17% .24 69% .23
Nov
3		 Villanova B- C- F D+ D+ 51% 20% 29% A- C- C- D+ D+ A+ A C A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B A+ C+ F F B- B A+ A
1.04 54% 27% 31% -6 +1 0.93 27% 0.8 .23 6% .33 67% .22 0.97 33% 22% 18% -23 0 0.56 35% 1.8 .65 16% .26 53% .14
Nov
8		 Holy Cross A A+ A+ D- A+ 47% 13% 40% B A+ F F F A+ D+ A+ C A+ B D+ A+ A 4% 58% 38% A+ A+ C- C- C- A- A- B- A-
1.36 93% 75% 29% +18 +2 1.42 16% 0.5 .08 8% .24 81% .20 0.74 50% 43% 15% -8 -7 0.71 22% 1.0 .22 21% .19 73% .14
Nov
11		 Delaware A+ D B B- C- 31% 18% 51% C+ C A+ A+ A+ B+ C A- B- D- B+ B F D 27% 29% 44% A C- C C C F A- D+ B+
1.40 53% 44% 36% +1 0 1.04 51% 1.2 .62 12% .28 87% .24 1.12 50% 33% 48% +6 -2 1.10 21% 0.9 .18 8% .16 78% .13
Nov
15		 Connecticut A+ B+ A+ C- A+ 41% 12% 47% A- A+ A- A+ A+ B- B A- A- B D C F F 50% 15% 35% D+ F A+ F C+ A F B F
1.13 60% 67% 30% +2 +1 1.08 33% 1.4 .47 19% .38 78% .30 1.16 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.35 28% 1.4 .40 22% .46 67% .31
Nov
21		 Wisconsin A+ D- A+ A+ A 27% 15% 58% B- A B+ A A A A+ B A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 20% 26% 54% A+ A+ B+ C+ B+ B+ F A+ C-
1.31 47% 63% 41% +6 0 1.15 30% 1.3 .38 11% .44 76% .33 0.94 82% 21% 24% -7 -2 0.83 26% 1.1 .28 16% .42 65% .27
Nov
27		 Miami (FL) C+ F C A+ B 43% 23% 34% B- B B- D+ C C+ A C- A- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 51% 15% 34% C- A+ A- F+ C+ D+ B+ A+ A+
1.05 45% 36% 50% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 19% .36 65% .23 0.90 41% 38% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.2 .38 15% .29 41% .12
Nov
28		 Dayton B B- B- A+ A- 38% 23% 40% C+ A- F A+ C+ B C A+ B C+ C+ A F D- 30% 16% 54% B+ D A- D B B- A+ A+ A+
1.11 60% 42% 43% +7 0 1.15 17% 1.8 .31 20% .30 83% .25 1.06 59% 22% 42% +4 0 1.11 21% 1.3 .26 19% .23 43% .10
Dec
3		 California Baptist A+ A B+ B- A 38% 20% 42% C A A+ A+ A+ B F B+ F+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 46% 17% 37% C- A+ B A+ A B D+ C- D+
1.31 67% 45% 35% +5 0 1.13 42% 1.6 .68 13% .23 79% .18 0.87 38% 11% 32% -15 +1 0.73 34% 0.6 .22 20% .34 74% .25
Dec
9		 Clemson A B- D F D 36% 28% 36% C D A+ A+ A+ A- C- A+ B- B+ B+ C+ A- A+ 34% 11% 55% C+ A+ F A+ C- A B F C-
1.10 59% 31% 18% -11 -1 0.79 43% 1.4 .59 15% .27 86% .23 1.05 53% 40% 29% -5 +1 0.93 46% 0.7 .32 20% .31 87% .27
Dec
13		 UC Riverside A A+ B A+ A+ 35% 31% 35% F A+ B F D+ B A- F D+ A+ B+ A- B+ A- 19% 37% 44% A+ A A+ F C+ A A+ A+ A+
1.33 95% 47% 47% +22 -2 1.44 36% 0.7 .25 13% .40 50% .20 0.70 50% 30% 29% -8 -4 0.80 17% 1.3 .22 24% .09 20% .02
Dec
16		 Pacific A+ A+ D B- A- 22% 33% 45% D- B+ A+ A A+ B+ A A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 23% 36% 42% A+ A+ A F D A A+ A+ A+
1.30 83% 33% 36% +5 -3 1.07 38% 1.2 .47 13% .43 89% .38 0.80 67% 26% 23% -9 -3 0.77 28% 1.5 .40 25% .06 0% .00
Dec
19		 Abilene Christian B A A+ D+ A- 30% 30% 41% F B C A+ A+ D- A+ C- A+ B- F A A+ B- 19% 52% 29% A+ A- C- F F B- B+ F D+
1.19 73% 64% 33% +12 -2 1.22 30% 2.3 .70 25% .75 73% .54 0.94 89% 28% 21% -5 -5 0.81 33% 1.3 .42 22% .27 93% .25
Dec
22		 Eastern Washington A+ A+ D B A 25% 13% 62% D A- A A A+ A C- A+ C+ C F+ F A C- 11% 40% 49% A+ B- B- F F C A C- A
1.45 93% 38% 38% +12 0 1.27 43% 1.4 .60 12% .30 85% .26 1.08 67% 52% 29% +3 -5 0.98 29% 1.5 .45 19% .20 75% .15
Jan
3		 Kansas St. C+ F B B+ C+ 33% 31% 37% D- C B+ B- A- F A+ D A+ A+ C- C- A+ A+ 57% 14% 29% F A+ A A+ A+ C- D+ C- D+
1.07 41% 44% 37% -2 -2 0.94 40% 1.3 .50 24% .46 67% .31 0.94 64% 38% 12% -7 +2 0.93 26% 0.6 .17 15% .29 74% .21
Jan
7		 Arizona St. A+ A+ A A+ A+ 30% 19% 51% C A+ B+ C- B- C A+ B+ A+ A F A+ A+ A+ 27% 37% 36% A+ A+ F A+ B A- A- B- A
1.34 88% 50% 48% +22 0 1.45 38% 1.0 .38 21% .41 80% .32 0.98 81% 18% 24% -6 -3 0.83 41% 0.8 .33 19% .29 72% .21
Jan
10		 Utah A- B A+ F C- 46% 11% 43% A- C A A- A+ C+ A+ D A+ C+ C D A B+ 39% 30% 30% A A- B- F F D- C- F D-
1.21 64% 67% 22% -2 +2 1.02 41% 1.2 .49 15% .46 66% .30 1.14 59% 41% 29% -1 -1 0.98 29% 1.4 .40 12% .33 86% .28
Jan
14		 TCU B C F F F 25% 37% 38% F F A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ F A+ B- B 20% 33% 46% A+ A- A+ D- A- D B- B+ B+
1.09 54% 26% 15% -16 -3 0.63 44% 1.1 .50 13% .48 79% .38 1.00 82% 22% 32% -2 -3 0.93 23% 1.2 .28 13% .30 67% .20
Jan
17		 Texas Tech B- A D F C 30% 33% 37% C- C B+ C B C+ D A+ B- B- C+ B- C- A- 33% 20% 47% C- B+ B+ D C+ C- F F F
1.01 69% 33% 25% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 17% .24 86% .21 1.20 59% 40% 38% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.1 .33 14% .38 83% .32
Jan
24		 Utah A+ A+ F A+ A 27% 35% 37% F B A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D F B- F F 13% 50% 37% A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B+
1.41 79% 28% 42% +7 -3 1.10 44% 1.4 .59 12% .41 83% .34 1.21 71% 33% 65% +17 -6 1.24 19% 0.3 .06 9% .19 100% .19
Jan
26		 Arizona A B C- A+ A+ 11% 43% 46% F A A C+ B+ B+ B+ D- B- B F F A- C- 36% 43% 21% A+ C+ A+ B A+ B F F F
1.10 57% 35% 43% +5 -5 1.02 33% 0.9 .29 16% .30 63% .19 1.14 76% 50% 30% +11 -3 1.17 25% 0.9 .21 17% .51 81% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Kansas A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 21% 26% 53% D A+ B A+ A- A B+ C- B D C- F F F 32% 26% 42% B+ F A+ F A+ F D- A+ C+
1.18 67% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 10% .27 65% .18 1.30 65% 50% 50% +15 -1 1.30 14% 1.8 .24 9% .38 63% .24
Feb
4		 Oklahoma St. A C- A+ A+ A+ 43% 8% 48% B+ A+ B+ D+ B- D C A- B- D F B- B D- 55% 11% 35% D+ D- C F D- F F A+ F+
1.18 54% 60% 45% +8 +2 1.22 33% 1.0 .33 20% .27 76% .21 1.27 73% 33% 32% +7 +2 1.20 31% 1.3 .41 10% .48 65% .31
Feb
7		 Houston A A+ C+ C- A- 16% 40% 44% F B- B+ D C+ A+ A+ F A D F B F+ C 16% 53% 31% A+ B B- F F+ F C- C- C-
1.12 71% 35% 32% 0 -4 0.93 34% 0.8 .27 10% .53 57% .30 1.31 88% 35% 40% +6 -6 1.02 37% 1.3 .49 7% .27 80% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.1 0.6 4.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 8.4 4.6 0.1 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 2.9 14.4 10.9 0.7 28.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 12.7 10.8 1.1 0.0 26.1 7th
8th 0.2 5.9 7.3 0.6 14.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.5 0.7 6.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 0.8 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 0.1 1.1 11th
12th 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.8 4.0 12.8 23.6 27.6 21.2 8.7 1.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.2% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 2.8 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 100.0%
12-6 8.7% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 3.9 0.1 0.5 2.5 3.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-7 21.2% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.9 7.5 5.2 1.4 0.1 100.0%
10-8 27.6% 99.9% 3.6% 96.3% 6.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 6.4 9.8 6.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 23.6% 99.5% 2.4% 97.1% 7.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.0 8.0 6.2 1.9 0.2 0.1 99.5%
8-10 12.8% 95.7% 2.2% 93.5% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.5 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.6 95.6%
7-11 4.0% 82.0% 1.0% 81.0% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.7 81.9%
6-12 0.8% 49.0% 1.3% 47.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 48.3%
5-13 0.1% 0.0 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.1% 3.6% 94.6% 6.2 1.9 98.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 58.3 33.3 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 2.5 11.1 36.1 41.7 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 2.7 5.5 32.9 53.4 6.8 1.4