BYU
Big 12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#14
Expected Predictive Rating+18.2#13
Pace72.9#82
Improvement-1.1#285

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#17
First Shot+5.1#54
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#32
Layup/Dunks-2.8#274
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.2#2
Freethrows-1.4#260
Improvement+0.4#134

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#19
First Shot+5.4#44
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#64
Layups/Dunks+5.3#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.8#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#35
Freethrows+4.0#14
Improvement-1.5#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.8%
#1 Seed 10.3% 10.8% 4.1%
Top 2 Seed 23.9% 24.7% 13.9%
Top 4 Seed 52.0% 53.1% 36.3%
Top 6 Seed 72.1% 73.2% 57.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.8% 93.2% 87.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.9% 92.4% 86.2%
Average Seed 4.5 4.5 5.5
.500 or above 99.5% 99.6% 98.7%
.500 or above in Conference 85.6% 86.0% 80.9%
Conference Champion 16.7% 17.1% 10.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.3%
First Four2.5% 2.4% 3.6%
First Round91.5% 91.9% 86.1%
Second Round72.4% 73.3% 60.3%
Sweet Sixteen42.3% 43.3% 29.3%
Elite Eight21.0% 21.7% 11.1%
Final Four10.4% 10.8% 4.4%
Championship Game5.3% 5.6% 1.4%
National Champion2.4% 2.5% 0.5%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Neutral) - 93.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 5
Quad 26 - 112 - 7
Quad 35 - 017 - 7
Quad 47 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 358   Houston Christian W 110-63 99%     1 - 0 +29.0 +10.6 +12.0
  Nov 10, 2023 21   San Diego St. W 74-65 69%     2 - 0 +19.3 +7.1 +12.2
  Nov 15, 2023 290   SE Louisiana W 105-48 98%     3 - 0 +47.1 +23.3 +22.6
  Nov 18, 2023 334   Morgan St. W 93-50 99%     4 - 0 +28.7 +17.3 +13.6
  Nov 23, 2023 91   Arizona St. W 77-49 82%     5 - 0 +33.8 +11.9 +22.8
  Nov 24, 2023 71   North Carolina St. W 95-86 78%     6 - 0 +16.3 +16.0 -0.6
  Nov 30, 2023 169   Fresno St. W 79-63 93%    
  Dec 05, 2023 201   Evansville W 83-63 97%    
  Dec 09, 2023 41   @ Utah W 77-75 56%    
  Dec 13, 2023 256   Denver W 94-70 99%    
  Dec 16, 2023 185   Georgia St. W 84-64 97%    
  Dec 22, 2023 211   Bellarmine W 81-60 97%    
  Dec 30, 2023 150   Wyoming W 81-63 94%    
  Jan 06, 2024 39   Cincinnati W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 09, 2024 10   @ Baylor L 80-84 36%    
  Jan 13, 2024 86   @ Central Florida W 80-74 71%    
  Jan 16, 2024 31   Iowa St. W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 20, 2024 48   @ Texas Tech W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 23, 2024 3   Houston L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 27, 2024 28   Texas W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 03, 2024 103   @ West Virginia W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 06, 2024 22   @ Oklahoma L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 10, 2024 46   Kansas St. W 82-74 77%    
  Feb 13, 2024 86   Central Florida W 83-71 86%    
  Feb 17, 2024 74   @ Oklahoma St. W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 20, 2024 10   Baylor W 83-81 57%    
  Feb 24, 2024 46   @ Kansas St. W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 27, 2024 7   @ Kansas L 73-78 34%    
  Mar 02, 2024 23   TCU W 80-75 68%    
  Mar 06, 2024 31   @ Iowa St. W 71-70 50%    
  Mar 09, 2024 74   Oklahoma St. W 78-66 85%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 5.1 3.1 1.4 0.2 16.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.0 5.4 1.7 0.3 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 6.1 4.1 0.9 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 6.0 4.2 0.7 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.4 4.1 0.8 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.1 1.1 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.9 1.4 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.1 0.2 4.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.5 3.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.1 4.0 6.1 9.7 11.6 14.3 14.3 12.8 11.0 6.9 3.5 1.4 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.0
16-2 90.7% 3.1    2.6 0.6 0.0
15-3 73.9% 5.1    3.1 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 42.3% 4.6    1.8 2.1 0.7 0.1
13-5 15.3% 2.0    0.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.7% 16.7 9.3 5.4 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.4% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.5% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 1.4 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.9% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 1.7 2.9 3.0 0.9 0.1 100.0%
14-4 11.0% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 2.2 2.6 4.4 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.8% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 2.9 1.0 3.6 4.7 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.3% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 3.9 0.4 1.0 3.9 4.9 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.3% 99.8% 9.2% 90.6% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 4.1 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 11.6% 98.6% 7.8% 90.8% 6.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.5 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.5%
9-9 9.7% 95.2% 7.3% 87.9% 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.5 94.8%
8-10 6.1% 83.4% 5.8% 77.5% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 1.0 82.3%
7-11 4.0% 56.2% 4.3% 51.9% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.8 54.3%
6-12 2.1% 17.9% 2.8% 15.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 15.6%
5-13 1.3% 5.7% 0.5% 5.2% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 5.2%
4-14 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.3%
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 92.8% 11.0% 81.9% 4.5 10.3 13.6 14.8 13.3 11.2 9.0 6.4 4.6 4.1 3.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 91.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 88.6 11.4