St. Francis Brooklyn
Northeast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.4#349
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#329
Pace66.8#221
Improvement-0.5#252

Offense
Total Offense-7.6#350
First Shot-7.8#351
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#156
Layup/Dunks-6.0#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#281
Freethrows+0.4#147
Improvement-0.2#224

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#314
First Shot-4.8#319
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#173
Layups/Dunks-5.2#348
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#90
Freethrows-1.2#272
Improvement-0.3#233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 11.3% 18.7% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 30.8% 45.2% 15.1%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 52.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 30 - 40 - 5
Quad 412 - 1012 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 173   @ Minnesota L 54-72 9%     0 - 1 -15.3 -5.2 -13.5
  Nov 13, 2022 266   @ St. Thomas L 48-84 18%     0 - 2 -38.8 -26.1 -15.3
  Nov 19, 2022 263   St. Peter's W 61-58 34%     1 - 2 -5.2 -11.2 +6.1
  Nov 23, 2022 34   @ Miami (FL) L 56-79 1%     1 - 3 -8.2 -12.1 +3.6
  Nov 25, 2022 129   @ South Florida L 60-75 6%     1 - 4 -10.0 -8.5 -1.9
  Nov 30, 2022 356   Delaware St. W 81-73 68%     2 - 4 -9.3 -2.6 -6.9
  Dec 06, 2022 360   Hartford W 68-50 76%     3 - 4 -1.7 -5.0 +5.7
  Dec 10, 2022 177   @ Umass Lowell L 59-68 9%     3 - 5 -6.5 -7.0 -0.3
  Dec 13, 2022 181   Longwood L 57-63 19%     3 - 6 -9.2 -14.1 +4.6
  Dec 17, 2022 360   @ Hartford W 67-51 57%     4 - 6 +1.8 -7.8 +10.7
  Dec 31, 2022 329   @ Central Connecticut St. L 52-74 31%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -29.2 -24.3 -4.7
  Jan 05, 2023 307   Fairleigh Dickinson L 57-76 43%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -29.7 -21.9 -9.0
  Jan 07, 2023 337   @ Merrimack L 53-65 33%     4 - 9 0 - 3 -20.0 -10.0 -11.8
  Jan 10, 2023 360   Hartford W 78-73 76%     5 - 9 -14.7 +0.3 -14.7
  Jan 14, 2023 323   Sacred Heart W 82-79 48%     6 - 9 1 - 3 -8.9 -2.9 -6.2
  Jan 16, 2023 363   @ LIU Brooklyn W 73-66 62%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -8.6 -4.9 -3.6
  Jan 20, 2023 325   @ St. Francis (PA) L 61-87 29%     7 - 10 2 - 4 -32.5 -15.7 -17.3
  Jan 22, 2023 337   Merrimack L 55-63 54%     7 - 11 2 - 5 -21.4 -15.0 -6.9
  Jan 26, 2023 284   @ Wagner W 65-56 21%     8 - 11 3 - 5 +5.1 +2.1 +4.4
  Jan 28, 2023 363   LIU Brooklyn W 71-59 79%     9 - 11 4 - 5 -9.0 -14.1 +4.4
  Feb 02, 2023 329   Central Connecticut St. W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 04, 2023 340   Stonehill W 67-66 56%    
  Feb 09, 2023 284   Wagner L 61-64 39%    
  Feb 11, 2023 340   @ Stonehill L 65-69 34%    
  Feb 16, 2023 325   St. Francis (PA) L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 23, 2023 323   @ Sacred Heart L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 25, 2023 307   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 71-78 24%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 1.2 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.2 0.3 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.1 4.6 2.6 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 9.2 0.4 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 10.6 4.6 0.0 16.1 6th
7th 1.2 10.4 13.0 0.4 25.0 7th
8th 3.4 12.0 13.4 2.3 31.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 3.5 13.2 24.7 27.8 19.5 8.8 2.3 0.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 83.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 31.5% 0.7    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.3% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-6 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 2.2
9-7 8.8% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 8.5
8-8 19.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 19.3
7-9 27.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 27.7
6-10 24.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 24.6
5-11 13.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.2
4-12 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 9.3% 16.0 9.3
Lose Out 3.5% 0.1% 16.0 0.1