Minnesota
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#108
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#142
Pace59.6#356
Improvement+0.8#143

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#155
First Shot+1.1#139
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#199
Layup/Dunks+3.0#75
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#253
Freethrows-0.6#216
Improvement+3.6#25

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#101
First Shot+0.1#174
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#21
Layups/Dunks-0.8#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#227
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#246
Freethrows+2.4#38
Improvement-2.8#325
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 10.5 11.3 10.1
.500 or above 1.6% 5.0% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 72.2% 52.2% 73.7%
First Four0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 7.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 71 - 14
Quad 21 - 43 - 18
Quad 32 - 25 - 20
Quad 47 - 011 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 308   Oral Roberts W 80-57 91%     1 - 0 +11.7 +3.3 +10.1
  Nov 09, 2024 234   Nebraska Omaha W 68-64 84%     2 - 0 -2.9 -5.9 +3.2
  Nov 13, 2024 68   North Texas L 51-54 45%     2 - 1 +1.7 -6.1 +7.2
  Nov 16, 2024 87   Yale W 59-56 51%     3 - 1 +6.4 +3.9 +3.4
  Nov 19, 2024 186   Cleveland St. W 58-47 77%     4 - 1 +6.8 -11.9 +19.6
  Nov 25, 2024 242   Central Michigan W 68-65 84%     5 - 1 -4.2 -1.1 -2.9
  Nov 28, 2024 133   Wichita St. L 66-68 OT 57%     5 - 2 -0.2 -8.4 +8.3
  Nov 29, 2024 61   Wake Forest L 51-57 31%     5 - 3 +2.8 -7.9 +9.8
  Dec 01, 2024 247   Bethune-Cookman W 79-62 86%     6 - 3 +9.2 +12.6 -2.0
  Dec 04, 2024 11   Michigan St. L 72-90 15%     6 - 4 0 - 1 -3.4 +14.1 -19.1
  Dec 09, 2024 52   @ Indiana L 67-82 18%     6 - 5 0 - 2 -1.6 +3.0 -4.9
  Dec 21, 2024 322   Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-60 92%     7 - 5 +1.5 -3.6 +5.7
  Dec 29, 2024 348   Morgan St. W 90-68 95%     8 - 5 +6.9 +13.4 -4.9
  Jan 02, 2025 14   Purdue L 61-81 16%     8 - 6 0 - 3 -5.9 +4.3 -14.1
  Jan 06, 2025 29   Ohio St. L 88-89 2OT 27%     8 - 7 0 - 4 +8.8 +9.0 -0.1
  Jan 10, 2025 24   @ Wisconsin L 59-80 9%     8 - 8 0 - 5 -2.6 -3.0 -1.1
  Jan 13, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 61-76 7%    
  Jan 16, 2025 10   Michigan L 64-76 12%    
  Jan 21, 2025 37   @ Iowa L 68-80 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 27   Oregon L 64-71 24%    
  Jan 28, 2025 11   @ Michigan St. L 57-74 6%    
  Feb 01, 2025 92   Washington W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 04, 2025 53   @ Penn St. L 65-75 18%    
  Feb 08, 2025 12   Illinois L 65-76 15%    
  Feb 15, 2025 60   @ USC L 63-71 22%    
  Feb 18, 2025 28   @ UCLA L 56-68 13%    
  Feb 22, 2025 53   Penn St. L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 25, 2025 57   Northwestern L 62-65 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 48   @ Nebraska L 61-71 18%    
  Mar 05, 2025 24   Wisconsin L 64-73 21%    
  Mar 09, 2025 72   @ Rutgers L 64-71 26%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 3 - 17




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.2 2.7 14th
15th 0.2 1.9 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.0 1.8 0.1 10.7 16th
17th 0.1 1.7 7.1 8.5 4.0 0.6 0.0 22.0 17th
18th 3.9 13.6 18.1 14.4 6.0 0.9 0.0 57.0 18th
Total 3.9 13.7 19.8 22.0 17.8 12.0 6.4 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.1% 54.2% 54.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.2%
9-11 0.4% 5.4% 5.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.4%
8-12 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.5%
7-13 2.8% 2.8
6-14 6.4% 6.4
5-15 12.0% 12.0
4-16 17.8% 17.8
3-17 22.0% 22.0
2-18 19.8% 19.8
1-19 13.7% 13.7
0-20 3.9% 3.9
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.9%