Minnesota
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#94
Expected Predictive Rating+12.7#43
Pace70.2#150
Improvement-1.7#303

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#172
First Shot+2.3#114
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#302
Layup/Dunks-1.1#206
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#195
Freethrows-0.1#184
Improvement-2.0#334

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#43
First Shot+5.9#28
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#190
Layups/Dunks-2.2#254
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#6
Freethrows+1.6#94
Improvement+0.2#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.8% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 5.8% 1.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 28.5% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.2% 28.0% 12.6%
Average Seed 8.8 8.3 9.1
.500 or above 51.7% 70.5% 46.0%
.500 or above in Conference 14.2% 20.0% 12.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 26.7% 20.3% 28.7%
First Four2.9% 3.9% 2.6%
First Round15.0% 26.1% 11.6%
Second Round6.1% 11.0% 4.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 3.4% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 23.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 23 - 36 - 15
Quad 34 - 110 - 16
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 215   UMKC W 71-56 85%     1 - 0 +9.7 +1.4 +9.5
  Nov 12, 2021 126   Western Kentucky W 73-69 62%     2 - 0 +6.6 +1.7 +4.9
  Nov 14, 2021 151   Princeton W 87-80 2OT 68%     3 - 0 +8.0 -5.7 +12.3
  Nov 19, 2021 274   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-49 91%     4 - 0 +19.8 -5.2 +23.8
  Nov 24, 2021 257   Jacksonville W 55-44 90%     5 - 0 +2.6 -13.8 +17.6
  Nov 30, 2021 200   @ Pittsburgh W 54-53 67%     6 - 0 +2.2 -8.0 +10.4
  Dec 05, 2021 38   @ Mississippi St. L 61-69 23%    
  Dec 08, 2021 22   Michigan St. L 65-70 31%    
  Dec 11, 2021 15   @ Michigan L 60-72 14%    
  Dec 14, 2021 318   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77-59 95%    
  Dec 22, 2021 301   Green Bay W 76-59 93%    
  Dec 29, 2021 315   Alcorn St. W 75-57 94%    
  Jan 02, 2022 30   Illinois L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 09, 2022 34   @ Indiana L 63-72 21%    
  Jan 12, 2022 22   @ Michigan St. L 62-73 16%    
  Jan 16, 2022 19   Iowa L 74-80 31%    
  Jan 19, 2022 67   @ Penn St. L 60-65 34%    
  Jan 22, 2022 87   Rutgers W 65-63 59%    
  Jan 27, 2022 25   Ohio St. L 67-72 34%    
  Jan 30, 2022 29   @ Wisconsin L 58-68 20%    
  Feb 02, 2022 2   Purdue L 65-77 15%    
  Feb 06, 2022 19   @ Iowa L 71-83 16%    
  Feb 09, 2022 107   @ Nebraska L 71-72 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 67   Penn St. W 63-62 55%    
  Feb 15, 2022 25   @ Ohio St. L 64-75 18%    
  Feb 19, 2022 47   Northwestern L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 23, 2022 29   Wisconsin L 61-65 37%    
  Feb 27, 2022 34   Indiana L 66-69 39%    
  Mar 02, 2022 52   @ Maryland L 64-70 32%    
  Mar 06, 2022 47   @ Northwestern L 65-72 26%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.1 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 4.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.4 2.5 1.4 0.1 5.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.6 2.1 0.2 7.5 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 3.7 3.5 0.9 0.0 9.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.7 4.6 1.0 0.1 12.2 11th
12th 0.4 2.1 6.1 5.1 1.6 0.3 15.4 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 3.4 5.7 4.6 2.2 0.2 17.2 13th
14th 0.6 2.7 4.5 5.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 18.0 14th
Total 0.6 2.8 5.6 8.8 11.7 13.6 13.5 11.9 9.9 7.4 5.5 4.2 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2
17-3 73.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 45.3% 0.1    0.1
15-5 0.0%
14-6 7.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.3% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 4.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.6% 100.0% 100.0% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.3% 100.0% 3.9% 96.1% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 2.1% 98.8% 1.9% 96.9% 7.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.8%
11-9 4.2% 91.0% 1.5% 89.5% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.4 90.9%
10-10 5.5% 69.9% 0.9% 69.0% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.2 1.7 69.6%
9-11 7.4% 40.0% 0.9% 39.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.4 39.4%
8-12 9.9% 11.9% 0.0% 11.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 8.7 11.8%
7-13 11.9% 1.7% 1.7% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.7 1.7%
6-14 13.5% 13.5
5-15 13.6% 13.6
4-16 11.7% 11.7
3-17 8.8% 8.8
2-18 5.6% 5.6
1-19 2.8% 2.8
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 16.5% 0.4% 16.1% 8.8 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.9 1.2 0.1 83.5 16.2%