Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -9.5 315
Results Rating -10.3 324
Consistency 0.17 270
Pace 72.2 85
Improvement +0.7 158

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 292 D+ C+ D D+ C+
Defense D 314 D+ D F+ B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 41 D 53% 306 +0.9 146
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 73 B- 41% 77 +1.3 108
Three Pointers 34% 324 D+ 32% 268 -4.7 329
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 171 D+ -2.6 271
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 258
Second Chance C+ 31.3% 155 C 1.04 162 C+ 0.33 140
Opponents' Steals F 12.6% 359
Other Turnovers B- 6.7% 106
Turnovers D 19.3% 327
Freethrows C 0.31 178 F 64% 362 D+ 0.20 274
Total Offense D+ -4.5 292

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 192 D- 14.3% 336
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 231 C+ 4.2% 126
Three Pointers D 78% 305 C 1.0% 208
Total D 50% 309 F+ 7.6% 340


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 10 C- 60% 222 +5.6 345
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 214 D+ 41% 288 +0.1 194
Three Pointers 34% 350 D+ 36% 279 -2.6 67
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 311 D+ +2.2 273
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 284
Second Chance C- 31.3% 231 D- 1.16 333 D 0.36 302
Turnovers from Steals F+ 6.5% 348
Other Turnovers D 6.4% 298
Turnovers F+ 12.9% 352
Freethrows B 0.26 70 C- 73% 221 B- 0.19 77
Total Defense D -5.0 314

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 45% 122 D 7.6% 313
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 103 D+ 3.5% 260
Three Pointers B 79% 58 D+ 0.4% 280
Total B 50% 69 D+ 4.4% 272

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 187 16.0 13
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 208 0.20 266
Consistency 0.14 324 0.11 95
Improvement -0.1 190 +0.8 145

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 324 315 299
Results Rating Rank 336 320 300
Conference Record 8 - 8 8 - 8 9 - 7
Conference Finish 4 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 7% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 7% 6%
First Round3% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Maine (Away) - 48.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 411 - 911 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 8 @Connecticut L 47 - 110 1% -42  0% 0 - 1 F -39 F -20 F D+ F F -16 F F D
 Mon, Nov 10 326 New Haven L 67 - 73 65% +1  54% 0 - 2 F -20 F -10 F A+ D+ F+ -9 F F B
 Thu, Nov 13 190 @Columbia L 72 - 86 16% -1  57% 0 - 3 D- -13 C- -2 B- F+ F F -11 D- D- B+
 Sun, Nov 16 68 @Wake Forest L 75 - 109 4% -15  1% 0 - 4 F -23 D+ -2 C+ D- C F -18 D- F F
 Wed, Nov 19 111 @Bradley L 77 - 87 8% +0  46% 0 - 5 C- -4 B +7 B- D+ C- F -11 F+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 228 @St. Peter's L 66 - 68 20% -2  22% 0 - 6 C- -3 F+ -9 A- D F B+ +6 A F D+
 Wed, Nov 26 335 @Stonehill W 75 - 64 47% +5  91% 1 - 6 C+ +2 C+ +3 D+ C B C -0 B+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 202 @Massachusetts L 60 - 80 17% -8  11% 1 - 7 F -19 F -21 F+ D F B- +3 C A D+
 Sat, Dec 13 214 @Quinnipiac L 71 - 75 19% +1  58% 1 - 8 C- -4 D- -7 A F F B- +3 B- F+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 287 Sacred Heart W 87 - 82 53% -0  46% 2 - 8 D+ -5 C +0 C C- B- D -6 F C+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 256 @Boston University L 76 - 88 24% -9  0% 2 - 9 D- -14 C +1 B B- F F -16 F F D+
 Mon, Dec 29 28 @Iowa L 62 - 90 1% -19  0% 2 - 10 D -10 C- -1 B C D F -11 D- C F+
 Sat, Jan 3 319 Albany W 83 - 71 62% +10  88% 3 - 10 1 - 0 C -1 B- +4 D A+ C+ D+ -4 B- F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 351 @Bryant W 77 - 63 55% +6  86% 4 - 10 2 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +3 C+ A- D- C+ +1 C- C+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 357 @Binghamton W 73 - 68 63% +6  92% 5 - 10 3 - 0 D+ -8 F+ -8 D D F C+ +0 C- C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 323 NJIT L 64 - 73 65% -10  2% 5 - 11 3 - 1 F -22 F -16 F D- D D -6 C- A F
 Thu, Jan 22 237 Vermont L 68 - 77 41% -5  13% 5 - 12 3 - 2 F+ -16 F+ -9 F A- F D- -8 D- A F
 Sat, Jan 24 220 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 56 - 79 19% -12  0% 5 - 13 3 - 3 F -23 F -16 F F+ C- F+ -8 D+ D+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 353 @New Hampshire L 61 - 66 55% -3  12% 5 - 14 3 - 4 F+ -16 F -16 F C- D+ C+ +0 B- C F
 Sat, Jan 31 342 Maine W 91 - 77 71% +11  88% 6 - 14 4 - 4 C -1 A- +11 A A+ F F -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 323 @NJIT L 56 - 81 42% -19  3% 6 - 15 4 - 5 F -32 F -19 F D F F -14 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 319 @Albany W 89 - 79 39% +5  74% 7 - 15 5 - 5 C+ +3 A- +10 B+ A+ D- D -6 C F F
 Thu, Feb 12 351 Bryant W 88 - 69 76% +12  99% 8 - 15 6 - 5 C+ +2 A +11 A- A+ C D- -8 C- F D+
 Thu, Feb 19 353 New Hampshire W 78 - 56 76% +13  94% 9 - 15 7 - 5 B- +5 D+ -4 C C- B A +8 A+ C F
 Sat, Feb 21 357 Binghamton W 92 - 79 81% +6  83% 10 - 15 8 - 5 D+ -6 A +14 A A+ A- F -19 F C+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 237 @Vermont L 64 - 66 21% +1  47% 10 - 16 8 - 6 C- -3 D- -7 D- D C- B +4 A F D
 Sat, Feb 28 220 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 60 - 84 38% -11  1% 10 - 17 8 - 7 F -30 F -14 F B- A- F -18 F D F
 Tue, Mar 3 342 @Maine L 69 - 70 49%
Totals 10 - 18 8 - 8 -10 D+ -5 F D+ C+ D -5 D+ F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D B- D+ D+ 44% 48% 34% C+ D+ C+ C C+ D C F D+ D C- D+ D+ D+ 47% 19% 34% D D+ C- D- D F+ B C- B-
1.02 53% 41% 32% -3 0 0.97 31% 1.0 .33 19% .31 64% .20 1.16 60% 41% 36% +2 +1 1.08 31% 1.2 .36 13% .26 73% .22
Nov
7		 Connecticut F F F C- F 43% 26% 31% C F D C- D+ F A+ C A+ F F F D- F 61% 7% 32% F F F B- F D D+ D- D-
0.63 22% 0% 31% -27 0 0.48 21% 0.9 .18 28% .59 72% .43 1.47 74% 75% 39% +15 +3 1.39 52% 1.1 .55 13% .34 77% .26
Nov
10		 New Haven F F B F F 35% 15% 50% C F B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ C A+ F+ C D- F F 45% 24% 31% C- F F F+ F B C- B+ C
0.98 29% 43% 25% -16 +1 0.71 33% 1.5 .51 18% .48 78% .37 1.07 59% 42% 40% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.1 .33 20% .28 67% .18
Nov
13		 Columbia C- D+ F A+ B- 55% 22% 24% B- B- C F F+ F D- F F F B+ F F D- 57% 14% 29% F+ D- F A+ D- B+ F B- F
1.04 53% 25% 54% +2 +1 1.07 29% 0.6 .17 20% .25 64% .16 1.24 50% 57% 50% +5 +2 1.16 61% 0.7 .42 24% .50 69% .34
Nov
16		 Wake Forest D+ C A+ D- C+ 45% 15% 40% B C+ D D- D- C C C- C- F D+ F D- D- 41% 14% 45% D D- C F F F D+ F+ D-
0.99 58% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 25% 0.9 .22 20% .30 72% .21 1.43 63% 63% 38% +8 +1 1.21 32% 2.0 .65 9% .35 83% .29
Nov
19		 Bradley B A+ A- C- A- 21% 47% 32% F B- C+ F D+ C- A+ A+ A+ F F A+ F F 30% 36% 34% A+ F+ F F F C+ F C+ F
1.14 80% 45% 33% +8 -5 1.09 31% 0.8 .24 19% .48 85% .40 1.29 79% 18% 56% +10 -3 1.17 39% 1.3 .48 15% .45 73% .33
Nov
22		 St. Peter's F+ A+ B+ F A- 58% 18% 24% B A- B F D F A+ F B B+ A+ D A+ A+ 35% 13% 53% D- A A- F F D+ A+ C A+
0.93 73% 43% 22% +5 +2 1.16 41% 0.8 .31 34% .61 55% .34 0.95 37% 43% 24% -15 +1 0.75 29% 1.6 .45 17% .20 75% .15
Nov
26		 Stonehill C+ C+ F+ F+ D 42% 13% 45% B D+ B- D+ C B A+ F C- C A+ A C+ B+ 34% 20% 46% C+ B+ D C+ C- F A F B
1.09 59% 29% 29% -4 +1 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 10% .41 48% .19 0.93 37% 27% 31% -12 0 0.79 31% 0.9 .27 13% .15 78% .12
Dec
6		 Massachusetts F F A+ F F 57% 20% 24% B F+ D C- D F A F D- B- C+ F+ B C 50% 28% 22% C C D+ A+ A D+ B+ D B-
0.78 46% 67% 18% -7 +1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 26% .48 48% .23 1.05 57% 47% 31% +1 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .26 17% .27 71% .19
Dec
13		 Quinnipiac D- D- C+ A+ A 50% 15% 35% B A F F F F D- F F B- D- A- A+ B 43% 29% 27% C+ B- D+ F F+ D- F B F
0.95 50% 38% 56% +7 +2 1.19 22% 0.5 .11 25% .23 54% .13 1.00 64% 27% 21% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.2 .42 13% .45 66% .29
Dec
16		 Sacred Heart C F A+ A+ C 46% 11% 44% B C B- F C- B- C- F D- D C- F F F 22% 24% 55% A F B+ D- C+ C+ A B+ A
1.19 46% 67% 44% +4 +2 1.14 36% 0.9 .31 12% .25 56% .14 1.12 58% 54% 43% +11 -2 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 19% .19 73% .13
Dec
21		 Boston University C C+ A+ B- B 47% 19% 34% B- B C- A B- F A+ F C F F F F F 47% 20% 33% C- F D F F D+ F B- F+
1.16 59% 67% 38% +8 +1 1.19 30% 1.3 .37 17% .39 52% .20 1.35 76% 67% 47% +20 +1 1.44 30% 1.8 .55 17% .37 70% .26
Dec
29		 Iowa C- B F A- B- 50% 20% 30% B B B F+ C D B F D- F F+ F B- D 60% 15% 25% F+ D- C C+ C F+ F F F
0.95 64% 22% 38% +2 +1 1.07 30% 0.8 .23 24% .36 50% .18 1.37 72% 57% 33% +11 +2 1.29 33% 1.0 .33 11% .41 92% .38
Jan
3		 Albany B- C- C- D- D 53% 22% 25% C+ D A+ B A+ C+ C- D D+ D+ B- A+ B+ B+ 54% 15% 31% F B- C F F+ F+ C A- C+
1.24 56% 36% 31% -3 +1 0.98 50% 1.3 .64 13% .29 71% .21 1.06 55% 25% 29% -6 +2 0.94 31% 1.3 .40 16% .23 62% .14
Jan
8		 Bryant C+ A C+ D+ B- 50% 26% 24% D C+ C A+ A- D- C+ D+ C C+ B- D C D 31% 20% 49% B+ C- B- C- C+ F A+ A+ A+
1.19 68% 38% 33% +5 0 1.12 36% 1.3 .46 17% .32 71% .22 0.97 50% 40% 32% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.0 .24 14% .16 67% .11
Jan
10		 Binghamton F+ F B+ A+ D 40% 24% 36% D- D F A+ D F A+ D A+ C+ C A+ D+ C+ 57% 16% 27% F C- C A- C+ D+ C+ A- B
1.06 44% 45% 44% +2 0 1.04 19% 1.5 .28 16% .52 67% .34 0.98 55% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 19% 0.7 .13 19% .34 68% .23
Jan
15		 NJIT F F D+ F F 47% 24% 29% C- F D+ D- D- D A C+ A D A- F B+ C+ 44% 17% 39% F C- B A+ A F F+ F F
0.91 46% 33% 27% -10 0 0.82 30% 0.9 .28 17% .43 72% .31 1.04 46% 56% 29% -6 +1 0.93 22% 0.6 .12 10% .38 79% .30
Jan
22		 Vermont F+ F+ F+ C+ D- 23% 35% 42% F F B- A A- F D A- C- D- C+ F D- D- 46% 18% 37% D D- C A+ A F A+ F A+
1.01 50% 28% 36% -4 -3 0.88 31% 1.3 .38 21% .28 80% .22 1.14 58% 60% 38% +6 +1 1.16 24% 0.5 .12 10% .13 88% .12
Jan
24		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F F A+ F F 40% 19% 42% C F C- F F+ C- F D F+ F+ D+ C+ C D+ 50% 21% 29% F+ D+ C F D+ D+ F+ F F
0.84 43% 70% 18% -10 0 0.83 26% 0.7 .18 14% .16 67% .10 1.19 62% 36% 33% +1 +1 1.06 22% 1.2 .26 14% .35 95% .33
Jan
29		 New Hampshire F F A- F F 47% 31% 22% D F D B- C- D+ F F F C+ C- A+ A B 51% 13% 36% D- B- A- F C F C- D D+
0.88 46% 47% 17% -9 -1 0.84 26% 1.1 .29 16% .22 62% .14 0.95 56% 0% 26% -10 +2 0.85 20% 1.1 .22 14% .29 71% .20
Jan
31		 Maine A- C A+ A- B+ 66% 8% 26% A+ A A+ B+ A+ F D+ A+ B+ F F A+ B F+ 61% 9% 30% F F A+ A+ A+ F B- F C-
1.28 61% 75% 38% +6 +4 1.22 63% 1.2 .74 25% .28 93% .26 1.08 68% 20% 29% +2 +3 1.13 3% 0.0 .00 10% .30 74% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 NJIT F F C F F 42% 29% 29% D- F B- F D F A+ F A F F A+ B F+ 41% 16% 43% F F+ D- F F F A+ A A+
0.82 30% 36% 14% -21 -1 0.58 37% 0.8 .28 21% .52 61% .31 1.19 78% 11% 29% +1 +1 1.05 31% 1.2 .36 7% .21 62% .13
Feb
7		 Albany A- B+ D- A+ A- 46% 28% 26% D B+ B- A+ A+ D- A+ D A+ D B F B- C+ 49% 20% 31% D+ C A- F F F F A- F
1.28 67% 31% 50% +8 0 1.17 38% 1.6 .62 17% .54 71% .38 1.14 52% 50% 31% -2 +1 1.00 25% 1.6 .41 10% .42 62% .26
Feb
12		 Bryant A D+ A+ A+ A 50% 17% 33% C A- A A+ A+ C B+ F C+ D- B+ A+ D+ C- 37% 12% 51% C- C- F F F D+ D+ A+ C+
1.35 54% 75% 44% +9 +1 1.23 45% 1.3 .58 14% .36 65% .23 1.06 47% 17% 35% -6 +1 0.92 36% 1.4 .52 20% .29 67% .19
Feb
19		 New Hampshire D+ C C D- D+ 59% 9% 31% A+ C F+ A C- B D+ F F A A+ C+ A+ A+ 48% 10% 42% F+ A+ C C- C F A+ F A+
1.11 59% 40% 29% -1 +3 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 13% .29 61% .18 0.79 31% 33% 24% -20 +2 0.67 25% 0.9 .23 14% .08 100% .08
Feb
21		 Binghamton A B- A A+ A 51% 17% 32% C+ A C+ A+ A+ A- A+ D A+ F F+ F F F 55% 25% 21% D- F A- F C+ F A+ A+ A+
1.42 63% 50% 53% +14 +1 1.32 34% 1.5 .52 8% .50 67% .33 1.22 66% 62% 55% +16 +1 1.36 13% 1.0 .13 15% .20 45% .09
Feb
26		 Vermont D- C C+ F F+ 45% 27% 29% C+ D- A- F D C- B- F D- B A- A+ B+ A+ 44% 8% 48% F A F F F D C- C- C-
0.98 59% 38% 21% -5 0 0.92 36% 0.6 .21 14% .36 55% .20 1.01 50% 0% 29% -10 +2 0.86 32% 1.3 .39 14% .29 75% .21
Feb
28		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F F F F F 48% 14% 38% B F C A B- A- D F+ D- F F F A+ F 49% 34% 17% B- F B- F D F C+ A- B
0.92 44% 13% 24% -16 +2 0.73 27% 1.3 .34 9% .19 64% .12 1.28 69% 67% 22% +12 -1 1.25 20% 1.4 .28 6% .26 69% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 51.2 48.8 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 51.2 48.8 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 48.8% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 3.6 45.2
8-8 51.2% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 3.3 47.9
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 16.0 93.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.6% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 16.6%
Lose Out 22.6%