Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -8.9 311
Results Rating -9.6 319
Consistency 0.16 228
Pace 72.5 77
Improvement +1.9 110

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 274 C- C+ D- D+ C
Defense D 311 D+ D F+ B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 46 D 53% 299 +0.8 144
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 70 B 42% 57 +1.5 98
Three Pointers 34% 315 C- 33% 229 -4.0 314
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.2 175 C- -1.9 243
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 226
Second Chance C+ 31.2% 162 C+ 1.05 148 C+ 0.33 135
Turnovers from Steals F 12.9% 361
Other Turnovers C+ 7.0% 146
Turnovers D- 19.9% 334
Freethrows C+ 0.31 163 F 64% 363 D+ 0.20 262
Total Offense D+ -4.0 274

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 48% 192 D- 14.1% 330
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 243 C+ 4.6% 151
Three Pointers D+ 79% 285 C- 1.0% 223
Total D+ 50% 299 D- 7.5% 339

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 10 C- 60% 227 +5.6 345
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 218 D+ 40% 267 -0.1 180
Three Pointers 34% 347 D 37% 304 -2.1 92
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 313 D+ +2.5 279
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.09 290
Second Chance C- 31.5% 232 D 1.14 321 D 0.36 298
Turnovers from Steals F+ 6.5% 348
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 282
Turnovers F+ 13.1% 350
Freethrows B- 0.27 73 C- 73% 249 B- 0.20 91
Total Defense D -5.0 311

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 140 D+ 8.1% 298
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 114 C- 3.8% 243
Three Pointers B- 80% 74 D+ 0.5% 275
Total B- 51% 94 D+ 4.7% 252

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 203 16.1 19
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 192 0.20 292
Consistency 0.15 331 0.11 70
Improvement +0.8 140 +1.1 124

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 322 307 284
Results Rating Rank 340 310 277
Conference Record 8 - 8 9 - 7 11 - 5
Conference Finish 4 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 12% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1% 4% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four9% 11% 9%
First Round4% 6% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Vermont (Away) - 22.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 412 - 912 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 9 @Connecticut L 47 - 110 1% -42  0% 0 - 1 F -39 F -19 F D+ F F -16 F F D
 Mon, Nov 10 328 New Haven L 67 - 73 68% +1  54% 0 - 2 F -20 F -11 F A+ D+ F+ -9 F+ F B-
 Thu, Nov 13 202 @Columbia L 72 - 86 18% -1  57% 0 - 3 D- -13 D+ -3 B- F+ F F -10 D- F+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 71 @Wake Forest L 75 - 109 4% -15  1% 0 - 4 F -23 C- -2 B- D- C F -18 D- F F
 Wed, Nov 19 113 @Bradley L 77 - 87 9% +0  46% 0 - 5 C- -4 B+ +7 B- D+ C F -12 F+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 239 @St. Peter's L 66 - 68 23% -2  22% 0 - 6 C- -3 F+ -9 A- D F B+ +6 A F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 342 @Stonehill W 75 - 64 51% +5  91% 1 - 6 C+ +2 C+ +3 D+ C+ B C -1 B D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 190 @Massachusetts L 60 - 80 17% -8  11% 1 - 7 F -19 F -21 F+ D F B- +3 C A D+
 Sat, Dec 13 206 @Quinnipiac L 71 - 75 19% +1  58% 1 - 8 C- -4 D- -6 A F F B- +3 B F+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 287 Sacred Heart W 87 - 82 55% -0  46% 2 - 8 D+ -5 C +0 C C- B- D -6 F C+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 257 @Boston University L 76 - 88 26% -9  0% 2 - 9 D- -14 C +1 B- B- F F -16 F F D+
 Mon, Dec 29 24 @Iowa L 62 - 90 1% -19  0% 2 - 10 D -9 C- -1 B C- D F -10 D C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 315 Albany W 83 - 71 64% +10  88% 3 - 10 1 - 0 C -1 B- +4 D A+ B- D+ -4 B- F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 354 @Bryant W 77 - 63 60% +6  86% 4 - 10 2 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +3 C+ A- F+ C+ +1 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 358 @Binghamton W 73 - 68 67% +6  92% 5 - 10 3 - 0 D -8 F+ -8 D D F C +0 D+ B- D+
 Thu, Jan 15 316 NJIT L 64 - 73 64% -10  2% 5 - 11 3 - 1 F -22 F -16 F D- D- D -6 C A F
 Thu, Jan 22 230 Vermont L 68 - 77 42% -5  13% 5 - 12 3 - 2 F+ -16 F+ -9 F A- F D- -8 D- A F
 Sat, Jan 24 234 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 56 - 79 23% -12  0% 5 - 13 3 - 3 F -24 F -17 F F+ C- F+ -9 D D D+
 Thu, Jan 29 346 @New Hampshire L 61 - 66 54% -3  12% 5 - 14 3 - 4 F+ -15 F -16 F C- D+ C+ +1 B- C F+
 Sat, Jan 31 343 Maine W 91 - 77 74% +11  88% 6 - 14 4 - 4 C -2 A +11 A A+ F F -13 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 316 @NJIT L 56 - 81 41% -19  3% 6 - 15 4 - 5 F -32 F -19 F D F F -13 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 315 @Albany W 89 - 79 41% +5  74% 7 - 15 5 - 5 C+ +3 A- +10 B+ A+ D- D- -7 C F F
 Thu, Feb 12 354 Bryant W 88 - 69 79% +12  99% 8 - 15 6 - 5 C +2 A- +11 A- A+ C- D- -8 C- F D+
 Thu, Feb 19 346 New Hampshire W 78 - 56 75% +13  94% 9 - 15 7 - 5 B- +6 D+ -3 C C- B- A +9 A+ C F
 Sat, Feb 21 358 Binghamton W 92 - 79 84% +6  83% 10 - 15 8 - 5 D+ -6 A +14 A A+ A- F -19 F B- F
 Thu, Feb 26 230 @Vermont L 70 - 78 22%
 Sat, Feb 28 234 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 74 - 76 43%
 Tue, Mar 3 343 @Maine W 70 - 69 53%
Totals 11 - 17 9 - 7 -9 D+ -4 B+ C- C D -5 C- F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D B C- C- 44% 48% 34% C C- C+ C+ C+ D- C+ F D+ D C- D+ D D+ 47% 19% 34% D D+ C- D D F+ B- C- B-
1.03 53% 42% 33% -2 0 0.99 31% 1.0 .33 20% .31 64% .20 1.16 60% 40% 37% +2 +1 1.09 32% 1.1 .36 13% .27 73% .23
Nov
7		 Connecticut F F F C- F 43% 26% 31% C F D C D+ F A+ C A+ F F F D- F 61% 7% 32% F F F B- F D D+ D- D-
0.63 22% 0% 31% -27 0 0.48 21% 0.9 .18 28% .59 72% .43 1.47 74% 75% 39% +15 +3 1.39 52% 1.1 .55 13% .34 77% .26
Nov
10		 New Haven F F B F F 35% 15% 50% C F B A+ A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ F+ C D F F 45% 24% 31% D+ F+ F F+ F B- D+ B- C-
0.98 29% 43% 25% -16 +1 0.71 33% 1.5 .51 18% .48 78% .37 1.07 59% 42% 40% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.1 .33 20% .28 67% .18
Nov
13		 Columbia D+ D+ F A+ B- 55% 22% 24% B- B- C F F+ F D- F F+ F B+ F F D 57% 14% 29% D- D- F A+ F+ B+ F C+ F
1.04 53% 25% 54% +2 +1 1.07 29% 0.6 .17 20% .25 64% .16 1.24 50% 57% 50% +5 +2 1.16 61% 0.7 .42 24% .50 69% .34
Nov
16		 Wake Forest C- C A+ D- C+ 45% 15% 40% B B- D D- D- C C C- C- F D+ F D- D- 41% 14% 45% D D- C F F F D+ F+ D-
0.99 58% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 25% 0.9 .22 20% .30 72% .21 1.43 63% 63% 38% +8 +1 1.21 32% 2.0 .65 9% .35 83% .29
Nov
19		 Bradley B+ A+ B+ C- A- 21% 47% 32% F B- C F D+ C A+ A+ A+ F F A+ F F 30% 36% 34% A+ F+ F F F C+ F C+ F
1.14 80% 45% 33% +8 -5 1.09 31% 0.8 .24 19% .48 85% .40 1.29 79% 18% 56% +10 -3 1.17 39% 1.3 .48 15% .45 73% .33
Nov
22		 St. Peter's F+ A+ A- F A- 58% 18% 24% B A- B F D F A+ F B B+ A+ D A+ A+ 35% 13% 53% D- A A- F F C- A+ C A+
0.93 73% 43% 22% +5 +2 1.16 41% 0.8 .31 34% .61 55% .34 0.95 37% 43% 24% -15 +1 0.75 29% 1.6 .45 17% .20 75% .15
Nov
26		 Stonehill C+ C+ F+ F+ D 42% 13% 45% B D+ B- D+ C+ B A+ F C C A+ A C+ B+ 34% 20% 46% C+ B D C D+ F A F B
1.09 59% 29% 29% -4 +1 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 10% .41 48% .19 0.93 37% 27% 31% -12 0 0.79 31% 0.9 .27 13% .15 78% .12
Dec
6		 Massachusetts F F A+ F F 57% 20% 24% B F+ D C- D F A F D- B- C+ F+ B C 50% 28% 22% C C D+ A+ A D+ B+ D B
0.78 46% 67% 18% -7 +1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 26% .48 48% .23 1.05 57% 47% 31% +1 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .26 17% .27 71% .19
Dec
13		 Quinnipiac D- D- B- A+ A 50% 15% 35% B A F F F F D- F F B- D- A- A+ B 43% 29% 27% C+ B D+ F F+ D- F B F
0.95 50% 38% 56% +7 +2 1.19 22% 0.5 .11 25% .23 54% .13 1.00 64% 27% 21% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.2 .42 13% .45 66% .29
Dec
16		 Sacred Heart C F A+ A+ C- 46% 11% 44% B C B- F C- B- C- F D- D C- F F F 22% 24% 55% A- F B D- C+ C+ A B+ A
1.19 46% 67% 44% +4 +2 1.14 36% 0.9 .31 12% .25 56% .14 1.12 58% 54% 43% +11 -2 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 19% .19 73% .13
Dec
21		 Boston University C C+ A+ C+ B- 47% 19% 34% B- B- C- A B- F A+ F C F F F F F 47% 20% 33% C- F D F F D+ F C+ F+
1.16 59% 67% 38% +8 +1 1.19 30% 1.3 .37 17% .39 52% .20 1.35 76% 67% 47% +20 +1 1.44 30% 1.8 .55 17% .37 70% .26
Dec
29		 Iowa C- B F A- B 50% 20% 30% B B B F+ C- D B+ F D- F F+ F B- D 60% 15% 25% F+ D C B- C+ F+ F F F
0.95 64% 22% 38% +2 +1 1.07 30% 0.8 .23 24% .36 50% .18 1.37 72% 57% 33% +11 +2 1.29 33% 1.0 .33 11% .41 92% .38
Jan
3		 Albany B- C- C D- D 53% 22% 25% C+ D A+ B- A+ B- C- D- D+ D+ C+ A+ B+ B+ 54% 15% 31% F B- C F F D- C A- C+
1.24 56% 36% 31% -3 +1 0.98 50% 1.3 .64 13% .29 71% .21 1.06 55% 25% 29% -6 +2 0.94 31% 1.3 .40 16% .23 62% .14
Jan
8		 Bryant C+ A- C+ D+ B- 50% 26% 24% D C+ C A+ A- F+ C+ D+ C C+ B D C D 31% 20% 49% B+ D+ B C- C+ F A+ A+ A+
1.19 68% 38% 33% +5 0 1.12 36% 1.3 .46 17% .32 71% .22 0.97 50% 40% 32% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.0 .24 14% .16 67% .11
Jan
10		 Binghamton F+ F B A+ D 40% 24% 36% D- D F A+ D F A+ D- A+ C C A+ D C 57% 16% 27% F D+ C A- B- D+ B- A- B+
1.06 44% 45% 44% +2 0 1.04 19% 1.5 .28 16% .52 67% .34 0.98 55% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 19% 0.7 .13 19% .34 68% .23
Jan
15		 NJIT F F D+ F F 47% 24% 29% C F D+ D- D- D- A C+ A- D A- F B+ C+ 44% 17% 39% F C B A+ A F F+ F F
0.91 46% 33% 27% -10 0 0.82 30% 0.9 .28 17% .43 72% .31 1.04 46% 56% 29% -6 +1 0.93 22% 0.6 .12 10% .38 79% .30
Jan
22		 Vermont F+ F+ F+ C+ F+ 23% 35% 42% F F B- A A- F D A- C- D- C+ F D- D- 46% 18% 37% D D- C A+ A F A+ F A+
1.01 50% 28% 36% -4 -3 0.88 31% 1.3 .38 21% .28 80% .22 1.14 58% 60% 38% +6 +1 1.16 24% 0.5 .12 10% .13 88% .12
Jan
24		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F F A+ F F 40% 19% 42% C F D+ F F+ C- F+ D F+ F+ D+ C+ C D+ 50% 21% 29% D- D C F D D+ F F F
0.84 43% 70% 18% -10 0 0.83 26% 0.7 .18 14% .16 67% .10 1.19 62% 36% 33% +1 +1 1.06 22% 1.2 .26 14% .35 95% .33
Jan
29		 New Hampshire F F A- F F 47% 31% 22% D F D+ B- C- D+ F F F C+ C A+ A B 51% 13% 36% D- B- B+ F C F+ D+ D+ D+
0.88 46% 47% 17% -9 -1 0.84 26% 1.1 .29 16% .22 62% .14 0.95 56% 0% 26% -10 +2 0.85 20% 1.1 .22 14% .29 71% .20
Jan
31		 Maine A C A+ A- A- 66% 8% 26% A+ A A+ B+ A+ F D A+ B+ F F A+ B- F 61% 9% 30% F F A+ A+ A+ F B- F C-
1.28 61% 75% 38% +6 +4 1.22 63% 1.2 .74 25% .28 93% .26 1.08 68% 20% 29% +2 +3 1.13 3% 0.0 .00 10% .30 74% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 NJIT F F C F F 42% 29% 29% D- F B- F D F A+ F A F F A+ B F+ 41% 16% 43% F F+ D- F F F A+ A A+
0.82 30% 36% 14% -21 -1 0.58 37% 0.8 .28 21% .52 61% .31 1.19 78% 11% 29% +1 +1 1.05 31% 1.2 .36 7% .21 62% .13
Feb
7		 Albany A- B+ D- A+ A- 46% 28% 26% D B+ C+ A+ A+ D- A+ D- A+ D- B F B- C+ 49% 20% 31% D+ C A- F F F F A- F
1.28 67% 31% 50% +8 0 1.17 38% 1.6 .62 17% .54 71% .38 1.14 52% 50% 31% -2 +1 1.00 25% 1.6 .41 10% .42 62% .26
Feb
12		 Bryant A- D+ A+ A+ A- 50% 17% 33% C A- A A+ A+ C- B+ F C+ D- B+ A+ D+ C- 37% 12% 51% C- C- F F F D+ D+ A+ C+
1.35 54% 75% 44% +9 +1 1.23 45% 1.3 .58 14% .36 65% .23 1.06 47% 17% 35% -6 +1 0.92 36% 1.4 .52 20% .29 67% .19
Feb
19		 New Hampshire D+ C C+ D- C- 59% 9% 31% A+ C F+ A C- B- D F F A A+ C+ A+ A+ 48% 10% 42% F+ A+ C C C F A+ F A+
1.11 59% 40% 29% -1 +3 1.06 23% 1.3 .29 13% .29 61% .18 0.79 31% 33% 24% -20 +2 0.67 25% 0.9 .23 14% .08 100% .08
Feb
21		 Binghamton A C+ A A+ A 51% 17% 32% C+ A C+ A+ A+ A- A+ D- A+ F F+ F F F 55% 25% 21% D- F A F B- F A+ A+ A+
1.42 63% 50% 53% +14 +1 1.32 34% 1.5 .52 8% .50 67% .33 1.22 66% 62% 55% +16 +1 1.36 13% 1.0 .13 15% .20 45% .09



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.7 4.2 4.9 2nd
3rd 8.8 1.3 10.1 3rd
4th 19.5 43.5 19.5 82.5 4th
5th 2.4 2.4 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 21.9 43.5 29.0 5.6 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 5.6% 16.5% 16.5% 16.0 0.9 4.7
10-6 29.0% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 3.1 25.9
9-7 43.5% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 3.8 39.6
8-8 21.9% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 1.5 20.4
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 16.0 90.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 10.6%