Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#209
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#101
Pace71.4#121
Improvement-0.5#225

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#211
First Shot+0.9#148
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#301
Layup/Dunks-0.9#196
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#169
Freethrows-3.9#349
Improvement-0.4#229

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#195
First Shot-0.9#206
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#163
Layups/Dunks+2.2#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#118
Freethrows-3.2#327
Improvement-0.1#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 12.2% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 78.9% 86.7% 65.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.7% 82.5% 69.5%
Conference Champion 12.5% 14.4% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.6% 2.5%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 1.3%
First Round10.2% 11.9% 7.3%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Brown (Home) - 62.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 54 - 8
Quad 414 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 113   @ Dayton W 59-58 21%     1 - 0 +7.6 -0.7 +8.4
  Nov 16, 2021 32   Oklahoma St. L 58-80 10%     1 - 1 -10.0 -7.8 -1.5
  Nov 17, 2021 348   Central Connecticut St. W 77-53 87%     2 - 1 +9.8 -0.1 +11.1
  Nov 19, 2021 262   @ George Washington W 67-56 52%     3 - 1 +8.4 -8.6 +16.4
  Nov 24, 2021 116   @ Massachusetts L 81-92 22%     3 - 2 -4.8 +1.0 -5.1
  Dec 01, 2021 216   Brown W 70-67 63%    
  Dec 04, 2021 232   @ Merrimack L 61-63 45%    
  Dec 08, 2021 144   @ Boston University L 66-73 27%    
  Dec 19, 2021 309   Sacred Heart W 77-68 80%    
  Dec 21, 2021 276   @ LIU Brooklyn W 76-75 54%    
  Dec 23, 2021 331   St. Francis Brooklyn W 80-68 86%    
  Jan 02, 2022 323   @ Binghamton W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 06, 2022 254   NJIT W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 08, 2022 211   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 12, 2022 298   @ Albany W 70-68 59%    
  Jan 15, 2022 265   Hartford W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 19, 2022 352   Maine W 73-56 93%    
  Jan 22, 2022 195   @ New Hampshire L 65-69 38%    
  Jan 26, 2022 298   Albany W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 29, 2022 265   @ Hartford W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 02, 2022 352   @ Maine W 70-59 83%    
  Feb 05, 2022 104   Vermont L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 09, 2022 219   @ Stony Brook L 69-72 42%    
  Feb 12, 2022 211   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 74-71 61%    
  Feb 16, 2022 254   @ NJIT W 68-67 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 323   Binghamton W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 23, 2022 219   Stony Brook W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 26, 2022 104   @ Vermont L 62-71 21%    
  Mar 01, 2022 195   New Hampshire W 68-66 59%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.4 3.4 2.2 0.7 0.2 12.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.9 6.3 3.9 1.1 0.2 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.2 5.7 6.2 2.6 0.4 17.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 5.8 4.6 1.5 0.1 14.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.3 4.9 1.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.2 3.7 0.6 10.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.1 2.3 0.7 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 1.4 0.4 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.7 3.8 5.9 9.0 11.8 13.6 12.6 13.1 11.1 7.7 4.5 2.4 0.7 0.2 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 93.5% 2.2    1.9 0.3
15-3 75.2% 3.4    2.5 0.8 0.1
14-4 44.5% 3.4    1.6 1.5 0.3
13-5 18.8% 2.1    0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1
12-6 4.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.5% 12.5 7.4 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 68.4% 67.1% 1.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0%
17-1 0.7% 42.9% 42.9% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4
16-2 2.4% 29.8% 29.8% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7
15-3 4.5% 28.3% 28.3% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.2
14-4 7.7% 17.2% 17.2% 14.5 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 6.3
13-5 11.1% 17.4% 17.4% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 9.2
12-6 13.1% 13.8% 13.8% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.5 11.3
11-7 12.6% 8.3% 8.3% 15.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 11.6
10-8 13.6% 8.2% 8.2% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 12.5
9-9 11.8% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.1 0.4 11.2
8-10 9.0% 3.1% 3.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 8.7
7-11 5.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 5.8
6-12 3.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-13 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.4 2.9 89.4 0.0%