Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.9 #299
Expected Predictive Rating -9.8 #315
Pace 72.4 #91
Improvement +2.4 #67

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #250 C D+ C F C
Defense #325 D- C F D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #53 1.06 #288 +1.1 #133
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #145 0.80 #120 +1.1 #118
Three Pointers 34% #315 1.05 #128 -3.0 #282
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #190 -0.7 #192
Freethrows 17.5 #186 62% #355 10.9 #274
Second Chance 31.3% #163 1.02 #222 0.32 #178
Turnovers 19.9% #336
Total Offense -2.9 #250

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #25 1.21 #246 -5.0 #331
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #161 0.85 #297 -1.2 #269
Three Pointers 34% #345 1.15 #330 +1.4 #132
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #323 -4.9 #324
Freethrows 17.5 #193 72% #156 12.6 #197
Second Chance 35.1% #323 1.14 #298 0.40 #333
Turnovers 14.4% #307
Total Defense -5.0 #325

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #158 0.9% #257
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.9% #196 8.5% #322
Possession Length 17.9 #242 15.7 #19
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #254 0.22 #305
Improvement +0.5 #152 +1.9 #66

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.0% 13.6% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 15.2% 25.2% 8.5%
.500 or above in Conference 76.0% 88.3% 67.7%
Conference Champion 10.0% 16.6% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.6% 3.1%
First Four9.4% 10.9% 8.4%
First Round6.3% 8.2% 5.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bryant (Away) - 40.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 412 - 912 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 5 @Connecticut L 47-110 1%     -42.5   0 - 1 -38.2 -15.2 -19.0
  Mon, Nov 10 331 New Haven L 67-73 71%     1.0   0 - 2 -19.5 -8.5 -11.1
  Thu, Nov 13 138 @Columbia L 72-86 13%     -1.1   0 - 3 -9.7 +1.7 -11.5
  Sun, Nov 16 58 @Wake Forest L 75-109 4%     -15.2   0 - 4 -21.9 +3.4 -22.7
  Wed, Nov 19 121 @Bradley L 77-87 11%     0.1   0 - 5 -4.2 +10.7 -15.3
  Sat, Nov 22 251 @St. Peter's L 66-68 30%     -1.8   0 - 6 -4.3 -6.3 +2.0
  Wed, Nov 26 339 @Stonehill W 75-64 52%     5.3   1 - 6 +2.5 +3.3 -0.5
  Sat, Dec 6 170 @Massachusetts L 60-80 17%     -8.4   1 - 7 -17.9 -15.2 -1.0
  Sat, Dec 13 160 @Quinnipiac L 71-75 16%     1.0   1 - 8 -1.3 -3.6 +2.6
  Tue, Dec 16 287 Sacred Heart W 87-82 59%     -0.3   2 - 8 -5.1 +3.4 -8.7
  Sun, Dec 21 280 @Boston University L 76-88 34%     -8.9   2 - 9 -15.7 +2.9 -19.5
  Mon, Dec 29 17 @Iowa L 62-90 1%     -19.5   2 - 10 -7.9 +2.9 -12.8
  Sat, Jan 3 324 Albany W 83-71 69%     9.9   3 - 10 1 - 0 -0.9 +5.8 -6.2
  Thu, Jan 8 310 @Bryant L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 362 @Binghamton W 78-72 70%    
  Thu, Jan 15 355 NJIT W 78-70 79%    
  Thu, Jan 22 183 Vermont L 73-76 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 265 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 74-79 32%    
  Thu, Jan 29 340 @New Hampshire W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 343 @Maine W 69-68 53%    
  Thu, Feb 5 355 @NJIT W 75-73 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 324 @Albany L 77-78 47%    
  Thu, Feb 12 310 Bryant W 74-71 62%    
  Thu, Feb 19 340 New Hampshire W 77-70 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 362 Binghamton W 81-69 85%    
  Thu, Feb 26 183 @Vermont L 70-79 19%    
  Sat, Feb 28 265 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-76 54%    
  Tue, Mar 3 343 @Maine W 69-68 53%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 10.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.2 7.9 4.9 1.3 0.1 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 7.1 8.7 3.7 0.5 0.0 21.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.4 7.1 2.3 0.2 0.0 17.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.9 5.6 1.3 0.1 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.4 1.0 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.5 6.9 11.5 14.6 16.5 16.5 13.1 8.5 4.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
14-2 92.6% 1.6    1.3 0.3
13-3 69.5% 3.1    1.8 1.1 0.1
12-4 36.6% 3.1    1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0
11-5 10.7% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.0% 10.0 5.1 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 32.1% 32.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.5% 36.6% 36.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
14-2 1.8% 30.0% 30.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2
13-3 4.4% 25.4% 25.4% 15.9 0.1 1.1 3.3
12-4 8.5% 18.6% 18.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6 6.9
11-5 13.1% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 2.0 11.0
10-6 16.5% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 2.0 14.5
9-7 16.5% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 1.6 14.9
8-8 14.6% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 1.1 13.5
7-9 11.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.5 11.0
6-10 6.9% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 6.7
5-11 3.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.4
4-12 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-13 0.4% 0.4
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.6 89.0 0.0%