Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#177
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#162
Pace70.9#106
Improvement-1.8#346

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#185
First Shot-2.4#260
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#47
Layup/Dunks-1.0#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#266
Freethrows+0.2#162
Improvement-1.3#331

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#171
First Shot+0.9#142
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#263
Layups/Dunks+0.5#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#95
Freethrows-1.7#298
Improvement-0.6#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.2% 25.8% 21.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.3% 89.4%
Conference Champion 13.5% 14.9% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.9%
First Round25.1% 25.7% 20.9%
Second Round1.4% 1.4% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Home) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 34 - 34 - 4
Quad 417 - 421 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 346   @ Columbia W 89-62 80%     1 - 0 +17.7 +6.8 +8.9
  Nov 12, 2022 20   @ Rutgers L 65-73 7%     1 - 1 +8.5 +2.8 +5.9
  Nov 16, 2022 323   Sacred Heart W 90-81 86%     2 - 1 -2.9 +1.6 -5.5
  Nov 23, 2022 207   @ Brown W 73-62 45%     3 - 1 +11.9 +2.7 +9.1
  Nov 27, 2022 340   Stonehill W 73-59 89%     4 - 1 +0.2 -1.3 +2.3
  Nov 30, 2022 337   Merrimack W 77-51 89%     5 - 1 +12.6 -0.5 +11.7
  Dec 03, 2022 323   @ Sacred Heart W 70-59 72%     6 - 1 +4.6 -9.9 +13.9
  Dec 05, 2022 363   @ LIU Brooklyn W 84-64 92%     7 - 1 +4.4 +2.4 +1.3
  Dec 08, 2022 143   @ Massachusetts W 85-80 33%     8 - 1 +9.3 +6.1 +2.7
  Dec 10, 2022 349   St. Francis Brooklyn W 68-59 91%     9 - 1 -6.1 -4.8 -0.5
  Dec 13, 2022 198   @ Rhode Island L 75-77 OT 44%     9 - 2 -0.7 -0.8 +0.2
  Dec 21, 2022 276   Boston University W 68-60 79%     10 - 2 -0.6 -7.9 +7.3
  Dec 31, 2022 320   @ NJIT W 67-64 72%     11 - 2 1 - 0 -3.3 -4.3 +1.2
  Jan 05, 2023 288   Maine W 72-70 81%     12 - 2 2 - 0 -7.5 -2.7 -4.7
  Jan 08, 2023 336   @ Albany L 63-89 77%     12 - 3 2 - 1 -33.9 -9.9 -26.0
  Jan 11, 2023 146   Vermont W 80-65 55%     13 - 3 3 - 1 +13.5 +12.3 +2.3
  Jan 14, 2023 324   @ Binghamton L 65-66 73%     13 - 4 3 - 2 -7.5 -7.6 +0.1
  Jan 18, 2023 217   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 81-75 68%     14 - 4 4 - 2 +1.0 +5.8 -4.5
  Jan 22, 2023 195   Bryant W 98-79 64%     15 - 4 5 - 2 +14.9 +9.6 +3.3
  Jan 25, 2023 288   @ Maine L 70-75 64%     15 - 5 5 - 3 -9.0 -3.6 -5.5
  Jan 28, 2023 272   @ New Hampshire L 65-69 61%     15 - 6 5 - 4 -7.0 -8.0 +1.0
  Feb 01, 2023 336   Albany W 66-50 89%     16 - 6 6 - 4 +2.6 -10.5 +14.0
  Feb 04, 2023 320   NJIT W 74-63 87%    
  Feb 06, 2023 360   @ Hartford W 76-62 90%    
  Feb 11, 2023 146   @ Vermont L 66-70 34%    
  Feb 15, 2023 195   @ Bryant L 79-81 43%    
  Feb 18, 2023 324   Binghamton W 76-64 87%    
  Feb 22, 2023 217   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 25, 2023 272   New Hampshire W 70-62 79%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.6 7.5 4.4 13.5 1st
2nd 1.9 18.8 12.6 0.7 34.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 11.3 13.0 0.4 25.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.9 11.9 1.0 15.9 4th
5th 0.4 5.7 2.3 8.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.2 1.9 10.5 27.5 34.4 20.6 5.1 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 85.7% 4.4    2.7 1.7 0.0
11-5 36.7% 7.5    1.7 4.1 1.7 0.1
10-6 4.6% 1.6    0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 13.5% 13.5 4.4 6.0 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 5.1% 39.9% 39.9% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.3 3.1
11-5 20.6% 32.1% 32.1% 14.4 0.0 0.4 3.4 2.7 0.1 14.0
10-6 34.4% 25.8% 25.8% 14.7 0.2 3.1 5.1 0.5 25.5
9-7 27.5% 20.9% 20.9% 14.9 0.0 1.2 3.5 1.0 21.7
8-8 10.5% 16.6% 16.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 8.7
7-9 1.9% 11.1% 11.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7
6-10 0.2% 13.3% 13.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 25.2% 25.2% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 1.1 9.1 12.6 2.4 74.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.8% 40.8% 13.8 0.8 10.6 24.0 5.4