Kansas
Big 12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.6#7
Expected Predictive Rating+19.1#4
Pace72.1#83
Improvement-0.5#248

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#16
First Shot+7.5#14
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#123
Layup/Dunks+3.7#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#102
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#90
Freethrows+0.2#159
Improvement+0.1#168

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#13
First Shot+6.7#22
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#42
Layups/Dunks+4.9#27
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#191
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#133
Freethrows+0.7#132
Improvement-0.6#273
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.8% 13.6% 6.0%
#1 Seed 40.7% 50.7% 30.7%
Top 2 Seed 80.9% 89.4% 72.6%
Top 4 Seed 98.0% 99.6% 96.5%
Top 6 Seed 99.7% 100.0% 99.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.9 1.6 2.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.7% 99.3% 94.1%
Conference Champion 30.7% 43.1% 18.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round94.7% 95.9% 93.5%
Sweet Sixteen63.5% 65.8% 61.1%
Elite Eight38.1% 40.9% 35.3%
Final Four20.4% 22.0% 18.8%
Championship Game10.5% 11.5% 9.4%
National Champion5.1% 5.8% 4.5%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 49.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b7 - 113 - 7
Quad 25 - 018 - 8
Quad 32 - 020 - 8
Quad 43 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 310   Nebraska Omaha W 89-64 99%     1 - 0 +14.2 +9.4 +4.8
  Nov 10, 2022 241   North Dakota St. W 82-59 98%     2 - 0 +16.1 +2.2 +13.3
  Nov 15, 2022 24   Duke W 69-64 63%     3 - 0 +18.2 +0.3 +17.7
  Nov 18, 2022 114   Southern Utah W 82-76 93%     4 - 0 +6.4 -2.8 +8.4
  Nov 23, 2022 37   North Carolina St. W 80-74 69%     5 - 0 +17.5 +7.3 +9.8
  Nov 24, 2022 57   Wisconsin W 69-68 OT 76%     6 - 0 +10.1 +1.8 +8.3
  Nov 25, 2022 3   Tennessee L 50-64 42%     6 - 1 +4.7 -7.6 +11.7
  Nov 28, 2022 314   Texas Southern W 87-55 99%     7 - 1 +21.1 +16.7 +6.3
  Dec 01, 2022 41   Seton Hall W 91-65 79%     8 - 1 +34.0 +26.4 +8.0
  Dec 10, 2022 46   @ Missouri W 95-67 65%     9 - 1 +40.8 +15.3 +23.0
  Dec 17, 2022 21   Indiana W 84-62 71%     10 - 1 +33.0 +9.3 +22.0
  Dec 22, 2022 157   Harvard W 68-54 95%     11 - 1 +11.7 +1.6 +11.1
  Dec 31, 2022 35   Oklahoma St. W 69-67 76%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +11.2 +13.7 -2.3
  Jan 03, 2023 53   @ Texas Tech W 75-72 65%     13 - 1 2 - 0 +15.6 +12.0 +3.7
  Jan 07, 2023 23   @ West Virginia W 76-62 51%     14 - 1 3 - 0 +30.3 +11.7 +18.9
  Jan 10, 2023 43   Oklahoma W 79-75 80%     15 - 1 4 - 0 +11.8 +8.0 +3.7
  Jan 14, 2023 22   Iowa St. W 62-60 71%     16 - 1 5 - 0 +13.0 +2.4 +10.8
  Jan 17, 2023 28   @ Kansas St. L 82-83 OT 54%     16 - 2 5 - 1 +14.5 +7.6 +7.1
  Jan 21, 2023 15   TCU L 60-83 68%     16 - 3 5 - 2 -11.1 -6.7 -4.1
  Jan 23, 2023 14   @ Baylor L 69-75 47%     16 - 4 5 - 3 +11.5 +5.6 +5.6
  Jan 28, 2023 32   @ Kentucky W 77-68 56%     17 - 4 +24.0 +11.1 +13.0
  Jan 31, 2023 28   Kansas St. W 90-78 74%     18 - 4 6 - 3 +22.1 +11.4 +9.2
  Feb 04, 2023 22   @ Iowa St. W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 06, 2023 10   Texas W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 11, 2023 43   @ Oklahoma W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 14, 2023 35   @ Oklahoma St. W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 18, 2023 14   Baylor W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 20, 2023 15   @ TCU L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 25, 2023 23   West Virginia W 77-71 72%    
  Feb 28, 2023 53   Texas Tech W 76-66 82%    
  Mar 04, 2023 10   @ Texas L 73-75 42%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 8.4 13.0 7.0 1.5 30.7 1st
2nd 0.4 6.8 12.1 3.2 0.1 22.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.1 11.0 3.2 0.1 17.4 3rd
4th 1.0 7.3 4.4 0.2 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 3.5 4.7 0.5 8.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.1 0.8 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.7 8.1 16.3 23.6 23.9 16.3 7.1 1.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
14-4 98.2% 7.0    6.2 0.8 0.0
13-5 79.7% 13.0    6.9 5.1 0.9 0.0
12-6 35.1% 8.4    1.3 3.5 2.8 0.7 0.1
11-7 3.8% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.7% 30.7 15.9 9.6 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.5% 100.0% 23.9% 76.1% 1.1 1.4 0.1 100.0%
14-4 7.1% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 1.2 6.1 1.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.3% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 1.3 11.9 4.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 23.9% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 1.5 12.7 10.7 0.5 100.0%
11-7 23.6% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 1.8 6.9 14.0 2.7 0.1 100.0%
10-8 16.3% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.3 1.7 8.4 5.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
9-9 8.1% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 3.0 0.1 1.7 4.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
8-10 2.7% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 4.3 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.6% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
6-12 0.1% 85.7% 7.1% 78.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.6%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 1.9 40.7 40.2 13.6 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 1.1 94.0 6.0
Lose Out 0.1% 85.7% 10.1 7.1 64.3 10.7 3.6