Kansas
Big 12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#9
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#36
Pace74.5#61
Improvement-3.2#347

Offense
Total Offense+11.1#5
First Shot+10.5#6
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#134
Layup/Dunks+8.8#10
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#95
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#148
Freethrows-0.2#199
Improvement-2.3#342

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#42
First Shot+4.8#42
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#109
Layups/Dunks+1.6#132
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#73
Freethrows+2.0#67
Improvement-0.9#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.8% 7.4% 4.2%
#1 Seed 23.2% 25.0% 15.4%
Top 2 Seed 41.8% 45.2% 26.9%
Top 4 Seed 68.3% 71.9% 52.4%
Top 6 Seed 84.0% 86.8% 71.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.2% 97.6% 90.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.0% 96.8% 87.9%
Average Seed 3.5 3.4 4.3
.500 or above 98.8% 99.5% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.6% 92.2% 83.7%
Conference Champion 30.4% 32.1% 23.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 1.8%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.8%
First Round95.6% 97.1% 89.1%
Second Round81.5% 84.1% 70.5%
Sweet Sixteen54.0% 55.9% 45.5%
Elite Eight30.9% 32.6% 23.5%
Final Four16.6% 17.6% 12.0%
Championship Game8.5% 9.0% 6.4%
National Champion4.3% 4.7% 2.8%

Next Game: St. John's (Neutral) - 81.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 6
Quad 27 - 116 - 7
Quad 36 - 121 - 8
Quad 43 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 22   Michigan St. W 87-74 62%     1 - 0 +26.8 +15.5 +10.1
  Nov 12, 2021 155   Tarleton St. W 88-62 95%     2 - 0 +23.7 +21.6 +3.6
  Nov 18, 2021 219   Stony Brook W 88-59 97%     3 - 0 +23.6 +12.7 +11.2
  Nov 25, 2021 108   North Texas W 71-59 88%     4 - 0 +16.2 +3.2 +13.2
  Nov 26, 2021 113   Dayton L 73-74 89%     4 - 1 +2.6 +3.5 -0.9
  Nov 28, 2021 106   Iona W 96-83 88%     5 - 1 +17.2 +22.6 -5.9
  Dec 03, 2021 61   St. John's W 87-78 81%    
  Dec 07, 2021 162   UTEP W 82-62 97%    
  Dec 11, 2021 132   Missouri W 83-65 95%    
  Dec 18, 2021 158   Stephen F. Austin W 86-67 96%    
  Dec 21, 2021 75   @ Colorado W 78-71 74%    
  Dec 29, 2021 131   Harvard W 85-67 95%    
  Jan 01, 2022 90   TCU W 81-67 90%    
  Jan 04, 2022 32   @ Oklahoma St. W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 08, 2022 17   @ Texas Tech L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 11, 2022 59   Iowa St. W 82-70 87%    
  Jan 15, 2022 45   West Virginia W 80-70 82%    
  Jan 18, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma W 75-73 59%    
  Jan 22, 2022 91   @ Kansas St. W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 24, 2022 17   Texas Tech W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 29, 2022 12   Kentucky W 79-75 66%    
  Feb 01, 2022 59   @ Iowa St. W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 05, 2022 3   Baylor W 77-76 55%    
  Feb 07, 2022 11   @ Texas L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 35   Oklahoma W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 14, 2022 32   Oklahoma St. W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 19, 2022 45   @ West Virginia W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 22, 2022 91   Kansas St. W 78-64 90%    
  Feb 26, 2022 3   @ Baylor L 74-79 35%    
  Mar 01, 2022 90   @ TCU W 78-70 75%    
  Mar 05, 2022 11   Texas W 72-68 64%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 3.5 7.4 8.0 6.6 3.2 0.7 30.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.9 7.5 5.9 1.8 0.2 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.6 6.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 16.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.3 5.0 1.5 0.2 12.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.3 2.5 0.7 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.5 4.4 6.9 8.8 12.7 13.8 14.1 13.9 9.9 6.7 3.2 0.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 3.2    3.1 0.0
16-2 97.8% 6.6    5.7 0.8
15-3 81.5% 8.0    5.8 2.1 0.2
14-4 53.7% 7.4    3.7 3.1 0.6 0.0
13-5 24.6% 3.5    0.9 1.8 0.7 0.1
12-6 7.2% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.4% 30.4 20.0 8.1 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 43.1% 56.9% 1.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
17-1 3.2% 100.0% 52.0% 48.0% 1.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.7% 100.0% 41.6% 58.4% 1.3 4.8 1.8 0.1 100.0%
15-3 9.9% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 1.4 6.2 3.0 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.9% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.9 5.2 5.5 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.1% 100.0% 28.9% 71.1% 2.5 2.8 4.5 4.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.8% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 3.4 0.7 2.5 4.2 3.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.7% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 4.5 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.4 3.5 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 8.8% 99.8% 11.8% 88.0% 5.5 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.2 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 6.9% 98.8% 10.1% 88.7% 6.7 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.7%
8-10 4.4% 85.5% 6.7% 78.8% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.6 84.4%
7-11 2.5% 55.2% 3.6% 51.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 53.5%
6-12 1.6% 27.8% 27.8% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 27.8%
5-13 0.6% 11.1% 11.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 11.1%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.2% 23.0% 73.1% 3.5 23.2 18.6 14.9 11.6 9.7 6.0 4.7 2.6 1.7 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.8 95.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 82.7 17.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.8 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 84.6 15.4