Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#32
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#65
Pace73.7#78
Improvement-1.8#311

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#95
First Shot+3.5#82
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#197
Layup/Dunks+10.1#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#225
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#343
Freethrows+1.0#107
Improvement-0.6#244

Defense
Total Defense+8.8#6
First Shot+9.3#10
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#215
Layups/Dunks+5.4#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#82
Freethrows-1.6#280
Improvement-1.2#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.5% 3.0% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 6.1% 7.1% 2.9%
Top 4 Seed 18.7% 21.8% 9.7%
Top 6 Seed 35.8% 40.7% 21.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.6% 72.2% 50.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.5% 70.2% 48.5%
Average Seed 6.4 6.2 7.2
.500 or above 79.8% 85.2% 64.1%
.500 or above in Conference 57.3% 61.5% 45.1%
Conference Champion 5.9% 6.6% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 4.4% 7.6%
First Four5.7% 5.0% 7.6%
First Round63.9% 69.8% 46.9%
Second Round41.0% 45.3% 28.4%
Sweet Sixteen17.8% 19.7% 12.2%
Elite Eight8.1% 9.1% 5.3%
Final Four3.5% 3.9% 2.1%
Championship Game1.7% 2.0% 1.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Home) - 74.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 10
Quad 25 - 211 - 12
Quad 34 - 115 - 13
Quad 44 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 234   Texas Arlington W 88-45 95%     1 - 0 +36.4 +11.8 +23.4
  Nov 12, 2021 124   Oakland L 55-56 87%     1 - 1 -1.2 -14.5 +13.2
  Nov 14, 2021 242   Prairie View W 72-59 95%     2 - 1 +5.8 -11.3 +16.0
  Nov 16, 2021 209   Umass Lowell W 80-58 90%     3 - 1 +20.0 +4.0 +15.3
  Nov 17, 2021 64   North Carolina St. W 74-68 67%     4 - 1 +13.5 -0.5 +13.6
  Nov 22, 2021 198   College of Charleston W 96-66 93%     5 - 1 +25.4 +7.1 +14.0
  Nov 26, 2021 170   @ Oral Roberts W 78-77 OT 81%     6 - 1 +3.8 -4.6 +8.3
  Dec 01, 2021 53   Wichita St. W 70-63 74%    
  Dec 05, 2021 37   Xavier W 71-67 64%    
  Dec 13, 2021 166   Cleveland St. W 75-60 91%    
  Dec 18, 2021 7   Houston L 62-68 32%    
  Dec 21, 2021 16   USC L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 01, 2022 17   @ Texas Tech L 65-71 30%    
  Jan 04, 2022 9   Kansas L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 08, 2022 11   Texas L 64-65 48%    
  Jan 11, 2022 45   @ West Virginia L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 15, 2022 3   @ Baylor L 66-76 18%    
  Jan 19, 2022 90   TCU W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 22, 2022 11   @ Texas L 61-68 27%    
  Jan 26, 2022 59   Iowa St. W 73-66 75%    
  Jan 29, 2022 14   @ Florida L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 02, 2022 91   @ Kansas St. W 67-64 62%    
  Feb 05, 2022 35   Oklahoma W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 08, 2022 90   @ TCU W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 12, 2022 45   West Virginia W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 14, 2022 9   @ Kansas L 71-79 23%    
  Feb 19, 2022 91   Kansas St. W 70-61 80%    
  Feb 21, 2022 3   Baylor L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 26, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma L 67-70 42%    
  Mar 02, 2022 59   @ Iowa St. W 70-69 54%    
  Mar 05, 2022 17   Texas Tech W 68-67 51%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 2.7 2.8 1.6 0.2 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 4.5 4.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.6 4.5 1.2 0.1 14.0 4th
5th 0.5 3.0 6.4 4.5 0.9 0.0 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.6 4.0 0.6 0.0 15.0 6th
7th 0.7 3.2 5.1 2.8 0.5 12.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.3 3.6 1.8 0.3 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.8 0.9 0.1 5.3 9th
10th 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.6 10th
Total 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.2 8.3 11.0 13.0 13.4 12.6 11.2 8.9 5.2 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.1
15-3 85.4% 1.4    1.0 0.4 0.0
14-4 48.7% 1.6    0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.3% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.9% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 47.6% 52.4% 1.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 60.6% 39.4% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.8% 100.0% 26.0% 74.0% 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.7% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 2.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
14-4 3.3% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 2.7 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.2% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 3.6 0.3 0.8 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
12-6 8.9% 99.8% 14.0% 85.7% 4.4 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 99.7%
11-7 11.2% 99.2% 7.7% 91.5% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.8 2.3 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.2%
10-8 12.6% 96.2% 5.5% 90.8% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 2.8 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 96.0%
9-9 13.4% 87.2% 3.7% 83.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 1.7 86.7%
8-10 13.0% 60.5% 3.2% 57.3% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.2 5.1 59.2%
7-11 11.0% 26.2% 1.4% 24.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.1 8.1 25.1%
6-12 8.3% 9.4% 1.1% 8.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.5 8.4%
5-13 5.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.9%
4-14 3.2% 0.7% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 3.2 0.7%
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 66.6% 6.0% 60.6% 6.4 2.5 3.6 5.5 7.1 8.6 8.5 8.2 6.0 4.9 4.3 4.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 33.4 64.5%