Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#217
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#202
Pace69.6#134
Improvement+0.8#90

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#81
First Shot+4.9#48
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#298
Layup/Dunks-0.7#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#80
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#29
Freethrows-0.8#248
Improvement-0.1#217

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#324
First Shot-4.9#322
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#253
Layups/Dunks-2.8#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#330
Freethrows+1.1#95
Improvement+0.9#56
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 12.7% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 90.8% 97.1% 83.1%
Conference Champion 7.8% 11.9% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.6% 1.3% 1.9%
First Round10.7% 12.1% 8.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Away) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 52 - 8
Quad 417 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 77   @ Tulane L 67-89 13%     0 - 1 -12.4 -6.3 -4.8
  Nov 14, 2022 115   Princeton L 64-94 40%     0 - 2 -29.8 -10.2 -19.4
  Nov 18, 2022 261   Lafayette W 71-63 71%     1 - 2 -0.1 +3.8 -3.2
  Nov 20, 2022 329   Central Connecticut St. W 78-76 84%     2 - 2 -10.7 +3.9 -14.5
  Nov 22, 2022 138   @ UNC Greensboro L 72-76 26%     2 - 3 +0.4 +12.7 -12.7
  Nov 26, 2022 186   @ Georgetown L 70-79 34%     2 - 4 -7.2 -3.9 -3.2
  Nov 30, 2022 345   Coppin St. W 109-82 87%     3 - 4 +12.3 +15.7 -6.4
  Dec 03, 2022 258   @ Lehigh W 88-62 50%     4 - 4 +23.6 +11.5 +11.0
  Dec 06, 2022 346   @ Columbia W 73-66 75%     5 - 4 -2.3 -0.3 -1.8
  Dec 10, 2022 300   Morgan St. W 75-63 78%     6 - 4 +1.6 -5.9 +6.8
  Dec 13, 2022 333   @ Loyola Maryland W 72-69 69%     7 - 4 -4.5 +2.6 -6.9
  Dec 18, 2022 305   William & Mary W 78-62 78%     8 - 4 +5.4 +5.9 +1.0
  Dec 29, 2022 31   @ Maryland L 64-80 6%     8 - 5 -0.9 -4.6 +4.7
  Jan 01, 2023 146   Vermont L 61-74 47%     8 - 6 0 - 1 -14.5 -5.6 -10.3
  Jan 05, 2023 336   Albany W 92-83 85%     9 - 6 1 - 1 -4.4 +9.5 -14.1
  Jan 08, 2023 195   @ Bryant W 81-73 36%     10 - 6 2 - 1 +9.4 +6.5 +2.9
  Jan 14, 2023 288   Maine W 85-77 75%     11 - 6 3 - 1 -1.5 +6.5 -8.1
  Jan 16, 2023 360   Hartford W 87-62 94%     12 - 6 +5.3 +11.0 -3.9
  Jan 18, 2023 177   @ Umass Lowell L 75-81 32%     12 - 7 3 - 2 -3.5 +7.8 -11.7
  Jan 21, 2023 272   New Hampshire W 80-69 72%     13 - 7 4 - 2 +2.5 +11.5 -8.0
  Jan 25, 2023 320   @ NJIT L 65-69 65%     13 - 8 4 - 3 -10.3 -7.3 -3.1
  Jan 28, 2023 146   @ Vermont L 68-74 27%     13 - 9 4 - 4 -2.0 +3.5 -6.0
  Feb 01, 2023 324   Binghamton W 69-55 82%     14 - 9 5 - 4 +2.0 -3.9 +7.1
  Feb 04, 2023 288   @ Maine W 75-73 55%    
  Feb 08, 2023 320   NJIT W 77-68 82%    
  Feb 11, 2023 195   Bryant W 85-83 57%    
  Feb 15, 2023 336   @ Albany W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 18, 2023 272   @ New Hampshire W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 22, 2023 177   Umass Lowell W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 28, 2023 324   @ Binghamton W 76-72 64%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.3 2.4 7.8 1st
2nd 1.6 14.6 10.9 1.6 28.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 11.0 10.4 0.4 22.3 3rd
4th 0.0 4.7 11.8 0.8 17.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 9.6 2.4 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.3 2.6 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.2 1.7 7.3 17.4 26.9 26.8 15.6 4.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 60.3% 2.4    1.2 1.3 0.0
11-5 27.7% 4.3    0.7 2.3 1.2 0.1
10-6 3.8% 1.0    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 1.9 3.7 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 4.0% 21.3% 21.3% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 3.2
11-5 15.6% 15.8% 15.8% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.5 13.2
10-6 26.8% 13.3% 13.3% 15.3 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.4 23.2
9-7 26.9% 9.7% 9.7% 15.5 0.1 1.0 1.5 24.3
8-8 17.4% 7.8% 7.8% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 16.1
7-9 7.3% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.1 0.4 6.9
6-10 1.7% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.1 1.6
5-11 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 1.1 5.3 4.9 88.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.0% 21.3% 14.5 1.2 8.1 11.5 0.4
Lose Out 0.2% 1.1% 16.0 1.1