Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#128
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#143
Pace71.7#105
Improvement+1.4#84

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#197
First Shot-0.2#193
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#189
Layup/Dunks-1.0#206
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#187
Freethrows+0.2#174
Improvement+1.1#85

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#87
First Shot+3.8#62
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#248
Layups/Dunks+6.2#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#90
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#162
Freethrows-4.4#342
Improvement+0.3#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.7% 20.2% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 89.5% 93.9% 80.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 92.8% 86.3%
Conference Champion 22.0% 24.9% 16.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round17.6% 20.1% 12.5%
Second Round2.5% 3.1% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Home) - 67.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 34 - 7
Quad 413 - 317 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 66   @ Utah L 56-70 22%     0 - 1 -3.5 -12.3 +8.8
  Nov 12, 2021 76   @ Texas A&M L 80-81 2OT 24%     0 - 2 +8.7 +4.8 +4.0
  Nov 16, 2021 234   @ Texas Arlington W 80-71 OT 62%     1 - 2 +8.3 -1.9 +8.9
  Dec 04, 2021 351   Incarnate Word W 98-65 96%     2 - 2 +14.5 +8.0 +4.6
  Dec 11, 2021 161   Drexel W 72-67 68%    
  Dec 15, 2021 214   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-62 75%    
  Dec 22, 2021 218   Longwood W 71-63 76%    
  Dec 30, 2021 132   @ Utah Valley L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 01, 2022 305   @ Dixie St. W 81-73 75%    
  Jan 06, 2022 162   Stephen F. Austin W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 08, 2022 224   Sam Houston St. W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 13, 2022 123   @ Grand Canyon L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 15, 2022 104   @ New Mexico St. L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 20, 2022 199   Seattle W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 22, 2022 219   California Baptist W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 26, 2022 292   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 29, 2022 313   @ Lamar W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 02, 2022 355   Chicago St. W 81-59 97%    
  Feb 05, 2022 292   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-70 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 191   @ Tarleton St. W 62-61 52%    
  Feb 17, 2022 224   @ Sam Houston St. W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 24, 2022 313   Lamar W 79-65 89%    
  Feb 26, 2022 162   @ Stephen F. Austin L 71-72 46%    
  Mar 03, 2022 305   Dixie St. W 84-70 88%    
  Mar 05, 2022 191   Tarleton St. W 64-58 71%    
Projected Record 16 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.8 6.9 5.5 2.7 0.6 22.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.1 6.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.5 5.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.5 1.4 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.8 1.5 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.0 1.7 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.0 0.2 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.5 7.1 10.1 12.3 14.5 14.6 12.8 10.0 6.0 2.7 0.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.0% 2.7    2.6 0.1
16-2 92.1% 5.5    4.4 1.0 0.0
15-3 69.2% 6.9    4.0 2.5 0.4 0.0
14-4 37.1% 4.8    1.4 2.2 1.0 0.1
13-5 9.7% 1.4    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.0% 22.0 13.2 6.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 65.4% 56.0% 9.4% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.4%
17-1 2.7% 49.6% 48.6% 1.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 2.0%
16-2 6.0% 40.7% 40.6% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 3.5 0.1%
15-3 10.0% 34.8% 34.8% 13.4 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.5
14-4 12.8% 28.8% 28.8% 13.9 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.8 0.1 9.1
13-5 14.6% 19.3% 19.3% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.1 11.8
12-6 14.5% 12.4% 12.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 12.7
11-7 12.3% 8.2% 8.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 11.3
10-8 10.1% 5.6% 5.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.5
9-9 7.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.0
8-10 4.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.4
7-11 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
6-12 1.3% 1.3
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.7% 17.6% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.7 5.6 4.0 1.0 82.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 8.0 0.8 8.5 9.3 14.0 14.7 7.0 10.9 13.2 15.5 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 38.8% 11.0 2.0 4.1 4.1 12.2 14.3 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 28.0% 11.4 4.0 8.0 16.0