Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#178
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#153
Pace68.2#205
Improvement+1.8#66

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#183
First Shot+3.7#82
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#349
Layup/Dunks+4.7#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#343
Freethrows+3.8#24
Improvement+2.5#25

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#189
First Shot-3.9#303
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#17
Layups/Dunks-1.0#200
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#251
Freethrows-4.1#348
Improvement-0.6#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.3% 12.9% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.0 13.8
.500 or above 60.1% 85.4% 59.2%
.500 or above in Conference 61.7% 77.5% 61.1%
Conference Champion 8.8% 15.2% 8.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 2.7% 5.6%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round8.3% 12.8% 8.1%
Second Round0.7% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Baylor (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 35 - 75 - 11
Quad 410 - 315 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 128   Middle Tennessee L 56-79 51%     0 - 1 -24.3 -18.4 -5.5
  Nov 16, 2024 138   Texas St. W 72-60 52%     1 - 1 +10.4 +0.0 +10.5
  Nov 20, 2024 146   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-84 32%     1 - 2 -2.2 +3.6 -5.5
  Nov 25, 2024 250   Southern Miss W 82-74 64%     2 - 2 +3.3 +12.1 -8.4
  Nov 26, 2024 122   @ Montana St. L 59-85 27%     2 - 3 -20.7 -6.5 -16.4
  Nov 30, 2024 306   @ Nebraska Omaha W 71-55 63%     3 - 3 +11.6 -0.7 +13.2
  Dec 04, 2024 218   @ New Mexico St. W 78-70 47%     4 - 3 +7.9 +10.5 -2.2
  Dec 09, 2024 13   @ Baylor L 63-82 3%    
  Dec 18, 2024 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 74-65 81%    
  Dec 21, 2024 294   Texas Southern W 76-67 79%    
  Dec 28, 2024 30   @ Texas A&M L 61-78 6%    
  Dec 31, 2024 197   Stephen F. Austin W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 04, 2025 184   @ Utah Valley L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 123   @ Seattle L 67-73 28%    
  Jan 16, 2025 100   @ Grand Canyon L 71-80 20%    
  Jan 18, 2025 185   California Baptist W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 23, 2025 323   Tarleton St. W 74-63 84%    
  Jan 25, 2025 161   Texas Arlington W 78-76 58%    
  Jan 30, 2025 185   @ California Baptist L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 06, 2025 291   @ Utah Tech W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 199   @ Southern Utah L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 13, 2025 123   Seattle L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 20, 2025 199   Southern Utah W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 291   Utah Tech W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 27, 2025 323   @ Tarleton St. W 71-66 67%    
  Mar 01, 2025 161   @ Texas Arlington L 75-79 37%    
  Mar 06, 2025 184   Utah Valley W 74-71 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 100   Grand Canyon L 74-77 39%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.8 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.8 6.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.2 6.9 2.0 0.2 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.0 6.8 2.1 0.1 14.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.3 6.0 2.0 0.1 13.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.7 4.5 1.6 0.1 10.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.0 2.5 2.6 0.8 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.7 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.1 7.3 10.3 13.5 15.0 14.7 12.2 9.1 6.0 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-2 96.1% 1.1    1.0 0.1
13-3 81.2% 2.5    1.7 0.7 0.1
12-4 47.3% 2.8    1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0
11-5 18.3% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 4.9 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 40.7% 40.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.4% 35.3% 35.3% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.2% 35.4% 35.4% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-3 3.0% 31.5% 31.5% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.1
12-4 6.0% 25.3% 25.3% 13.3 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.5
11-5 9.1% 19.4% 19.4% 13.8 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 7.3
10-6 12.2% 12.5% 12.5% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 10.7
9-7 14.7% 6.6% 6.6% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 13.7
8-8 15.0% 3.4% 3.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 14.5
7-9 13.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.2
6-10 10.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.2
5-11 7.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.2
4-12 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-13 2.1% 2.1
2-14 0.8% 0.8
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.8 2.5 2.9 1.8 0.3 91.7 0.0%