Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 243
Expected Predictive Rating -3.8 229
Pace 67.0 227
Improvement +2.0 105

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 316 D C- F+ C+ C-
Defense C+ 131 D- C+ A+ F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 127 D 53% 304 -1.0 222
2 Pt. Jumpers 56% 27 D+ 35% 284 +1.1 112
Three Pointers 34% 323 C- 33% 219 -4.1 316
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 259 D -3.4 298
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 302
Second Chance B- 33.1% 99 D- 0.88 344 C- 0.29 225
Turnovers F+ 20.7% 351
Freethrows C+ 0.32 123 C- 70% 243 C+ 0.23 152
Total Offense D -5.8 316

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 144 F+ 15.3% 348
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A 45% 11 C- 5.9% 242
Three Pointers C 84% 192 D+ 1.3% 298
Total C+ 58% 115 F 8.2% 359

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 16 D+ 62% 290 +6.3 354
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 259 C 38% 163 -1.1 105
Three Pointers 36% 321 F+ 39% 352 -0.1 177
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 324 D- +4.2 328
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 334
Second Chance B- 27.5% 75 D+ 1.08 269 C+ 0.30 139
Turnovers A+ 22.6% 7
Freethrows F 0.45 365 C 72% 186 F 0.32 365
Total Defense C+ +1.4 131

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 136 D+ 9.1% 247
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 173 C- 4.3% 201
Three Pointers C 84% 180 D+ 0.5% 273
Total C+ 54% 146 C- 5.1% 208

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 297 16.5 39
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 91 0.24 352
Improvement -0.9 #234 +2.9 #48

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 270 241 205
Conference Record 4 - 14 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 1% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 65% 53% 93%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 68.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 33 - 74 - 14
Quad 48 - 411 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 240 Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 71 61% +4  76% 1 - 0 D+ -5 D- -7 C C F C+ +1 D A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 98 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 76 12% -1  31% 1 - 1 C- -2 C- -1 D D C+ C -1 D- B C-
 Tue, Nov 18 225 @Texas St. L 49 - 63 35% -11  1% 1 - 2 F+ -15 F -20 F B F B +4 D A- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 335 Texas San Antonio W 61 - 50 75% +7  94% 2 - 2 C -0 F -12 F B F A+ +13 B+ C A
 Tue, Nov 25 134 William & Mary L 58 - 92 28% -12  1% 2 - 3 F -32 F -21 F F+ F F+ -9 F D+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 276 @Pepperdine W 71 - 63 47% +8  88% 3 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +3 C C- B+ B- +2 D+ A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 157 New Mexico St. W 77 - 69 45% +5  82% 4 - 3 B- +5 B +7 A+ B- F C -1 C- B A-
 Tue, Dec 16 3 @Arizona L 62 - 96 1% -21  0% 4 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -2 C C+ D- C- -3 F D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 21 @BYU L 67 - 85 2% -5  28% 4 - 5 C+ +2 D+ -3 D A F B+ +5 D F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 297 @Texas Southern W 75 - 68 52% -2  30% 5 - 5 C+ +2 C- -2 D+ C F B +4 D C+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 198 Utah Tech L 64 - 79 53% -14  12% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -20 F -11 C+ F+ F F -10 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 95 Utah Valley W 85 - 68 25% +5  74% 6 - 6 1 - 1 A +20 A +13 A D+ A+ A- +7 D+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 223 @Tarleton St. W 84 - 80 35% +7  98% 7 - 6 2 - 1 C+ +4 B+ +8 B- A+ D+ D -5 A F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 176 @Texas Arlington L 72 - 82 27% -6  2% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D+ -8 B- +5 A- B- D+ F -14 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 15 139 California Baptist L 58 - 74 40% -13  12% 7 - 8 2 - 3 F -18 F -10 D+ F B F+ -9 D- C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 273 @Southern Utah L 52 - 74 47% -11  0% 7 - 9 2 - 4 F -26 F -26 F F F C+ +1 D- D+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 198 Utah Tech L 70 - 76 53% -7  0% 7 - 10 2 - 5 D -11 F -12 D- A- F C+ +1 D+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 273 Southern Utah L 76 - 79 69% +4  84% 7 - 11 2 - 6 D- -13 C- -2 B D C F -11 F F+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 95 @Utah Valley L 55 - 68 12% -7  23% 7 - 12 2 - 7 C- -4 F -14 C+ F F A +9 B D- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 139 @California Baptist L 63 - 65 21% -4  5% 7 - 13 2 - 8 C+ +2 D -5 F+ D- D- A- +8 C A+ C
 Thu, Feb 12 176 Texas Arlington W 67 - 63 48% +2  56% 8 - 13 3 - 8 C -0 D -5 F B C+ B +5 F A- A+
 Sat, Feb 14 223 Tarleton St. W 73 - 59 58% -3  26% 9 - 13 4 - 8 B- +8 D+ -3 C- B F A +10 D A+ A+
 Mon, Feb 16 223 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 65 OT 35% +1  63% 9 - 14 4 - 9 C- -3 F -15 F F D- A+ +12 C A+ A
 Sat, Feb 21 273 Southern Utah W 75 - 70 69%
 Thu, Feb 26 198 @Utah Tech L 67 - 72 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 95 @Utah Valley L 64 - 77 12%
 Thu, Mar 5 139 @California Baptist L 61 - 70 21%
 Sat, Mar 7 176 Texas Arlington L 65 - 66 48%
Totals 11 - 17 6 - 12 -4 D -6 C+ D C- C+ +1 C- C- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D D+ C- D 40% 56% 34% C- D B- D- C- F+ C+ C- C+ C+ D+ C F+ D- 46% 18% 36% D D- B- D+ C+ A+ F C F
1.00 53% 35% 33% -3 -1 0.94 33% 0.9 .29 21% .32 70% .23 1.07 62% 38% 39% +4 +1 1.12 28% 1.1 .30 23% .45 72% .23
Nov
6		 Nebraska Omaha D- C C- C+ C- 39% 17% 43% C C A- F C F A B- A C+ C- F C- D- 37% 22% 41% C D A- A+ A+ A+ F C- F
1.06 61% 38% 35% +2 0 1.07 38% 0.8 .31 20% .38 76% .29 1.03 60% 56% 35% +5 0 1.12 20% 0.4 .08 23% .59 74% .44
Nov
14		 Stephen F. Austin C- C- D- F D 47% 35% 18% D- D C+ F D C+ B+ A+ A C A+ F F D 43% 17% 40% F D- A+ F B C- F A+ F
0.98 54% 33% 22% -7 -1 0.86 30% 0.8 .24 16% .34 84% .28 1.13 35% 50% 53% +4 +1 1.11 17% 1.5 .26 12% .44 58% .25
Nov
18		 Texas St. F F A+ F F 57% 14% 29% B+ F A D+ B F A- F D+ B A A F D+ 56% 26% 18% F D F A+ A- A+ F B F
0.77 21% 50% 25% -23 +2 0.60 40% 0.9 .35 25% .40 53% .21 1.00 45% 30% 71% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.5 .21 30% .50 73% .36
Nov
24		 Texas San Antonio F F F C+ F 45% 16% 39% C+ F A- D+ B F A C- A A+ B B- A+ A 51% 16% 32% F B+ B D C A F A+ F
0.98 30% 14% 35% -16 +1 0.73 45% 1.0 .45 24% .36 71% .26 0.81 47% 33% 17% -15 +1 0.76 26% 1.0 .26 23% .56 56% .31
Nov
25		 William & Mary F B- B- F F+ 31% 23% 46% D- F B F F+ F B- F F F+ F F D+ F 55% 15% 30% D+ F B- F D+ B- F A F
0.78 63% 42% 21% -7 -1 0.87 35% 0.6 .20 28% .32 35% .11 1.23 85% 57% 36% +18 +2 1.43 24% 1.4 .33 19% .49 67% .33
Dec
2		 Pepperdine C+ C+ B+ C+ B- 33% 24% 43% F C C- C+ C- B+ A+ B- A+ B- F+ A+ D- C- 44% 17% 39% F+ D+ A- A+ A C- F C F
1.15 60% 45% 35% +3 -1 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 13% .43 74% .32 1.02 67% 0% 38% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.7 .15 18% .49 76% .37
Dec
6		 New Mexico St. B D+ A A+ A+ 36% 26% 38% C- A+ A F+ B- F A A- A+ C A D F C 41% 19% 41% F C- F A+ B A- F D- F
1.22 53% 45% 50% +9 -1 1.19 41% 1.0 .41 21% .46 83% .38 1.09 47% 43% 40% 0 0 1.03 42% 0.6 .26 19% .68 77% .53
Dec
16		 Arizona D+ D- F A C 36% 36% 29% C C B- C C+ D- A+ D A+ C- F F F F 51% 19% 30% F F B F D- A+ F D- F
0.84 44% 25% 38% -8 -2 0.82 26% 0.8 .21 22% .43 64% .28 1.30 86% 50% 46% +22 +1 1.49 37% 1.3 .47 26% .69 79% .55
Dec
19		 BYU D+ A+ F+ F C- 19% 52% 29% F D A- B+ A F B- A+ A+ B+ F+ F C+ D- 30% 30% 41% B+ D A F F A+ F B- F
0.94 89% 28% 21% -5 -5 0.81 33% 1.3 .42 22% .27 93% .25 1.19 73% 64% 33% +12 -2 1.22 30% 2.3 .70 25% .75 73% .54
Dec
22		 Texas Southern C- A+ F F D+ 41% 20% 39% D+ D+ D+ B+ C F A+ A+ A+ B F A+ A D+ 57% 20% 24% F D A+ F C+ B D- B- D
1.08 74% 22% 28% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.3 .36 22% .50 81% .40 0.98 73% 11% 27% +1 +1 1.07 15% 1.8 .26 20% .34 68% .23
Jan
1		 Utah Tech F A+ F F B- 46% 22% 33% C- C+ C- F F+ F A+ D+ A- F F F F F 37% 11% 52% D F B- B- B- A+ C F D-
0.96 86% 20% 20% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .21 27% .39 68% .27 1.19 71% 60% 46% +16 +1 1.37 26% 0.8 .22 23% .23 92% .21
Jan
3		 Utah Valley A C+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 29% 20% C- A C D- D+ A+ F A+ D A- C B- F+ D+ 49% 7% 44% D D+ A- F+ C+ A+ D F+ D-
1.23 57% 56% 45% +8 0 1.18 30% 0.9 .27 14% .22 92% .20 0.98 60% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.15 31% 1.3 .38 32% .34 75% .25
Jan
8		 Tarleton St. B+ C- A+ A- B 43% 23% 34% C- B- B+ A+ A+ D+ A C A D B+ A A+ A+ 67% 22% 11% F A D- F F C- F F F
1.16 58% 60% 40% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.6 .64 25% .48 73% .35 1.10 48% 30% 0% -14 +2 0.78 35% 1.7 .61 19% .50 93% .46
Jan
10		 Texas Arlington B- D+ B+ A+ A+ 28% 46% 26% F A- D+ A+ B- D+ A+ F+ A+ F C D- F F 52% 26% 21% C+ F F F F C- F F F
1.09 55% 44% 50% +8 -4 1.10 25% 1.4 .36 18% .59 66% .39 1.24 55% 45% 44% +3 0 1.10 46% 1.4 .63 20% .55 86% .47
Jan
15		 California Baptist F D- D C D 52% 27% 20% C D+ D- F F B A+ D- A F+ D+ A+ F D- 54% 19% 27% D D- C+ C+ C+ D+ F F F
0.91 48% 33% 33% -7 0 0.89 19% 0.3 .05 13% .45 68% .30 1.16 58% 11% 46% 0 +1 1.04 36% 0.8 .30 16% .39 86% .33
Jan
17		 Southern Utah F F F F F 55% 14% 31% A F B- F F F A+ A- A+ C+ D- A+ D+ D 45% 12% 43% F D- D- B- D+ A C- C C-
0.73 30% 29% 20% -23 +2 0.59 35% 0.4 .16 21% .44 76% .34 1.04 65% 17% 36% +2 +2 1.10 34% 0.9 .31 24% .26 71% .18
Jan
29		 Utah Tech F D- F C- F+ 48% 14% 38% B- D- D+ A+ A- F D F F C+ D+ A+ F D+ 45% 17% 38% D+ D+ D+ F F+ A+ F B F
0.95 54% 14% 32% -7 +2 0.92 30% 1.5 .43 20% .26 53% .14 1.03 63% 14% 44% +4 +1 1.12 31% 1.1 .34 28% .57 67% .38
Jan
31		 Southern Utah C- A+ D B+ A- 30% 32% 38% F B F A- D C D- F F F F F F F 53% 32% 16% C+ F F C- F+ A+ F F F
1.11 81% 35% 40% +10 -2 1.17 22% 1.1 .25 13% .20 50% .10 1.16 85% 50% 50% +22 0 1.45 38% 1.0 .38 32% .45 86% .39
Feb
5		 Utah Valley F F F A+ B 34% 27% 39% D- C+ C F F F C- F F A C- A+ A+ A- 62% 11% 28% F+ B C F D- A+ F A+ D+
0.80 40% 25% 53% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 29% .31 47% .14 0.99 62% 20% 23% -4 +3 1.00 37% 1.3 .47 29% .43 52% .23
Feb
7		 California Baptist D F A- F F 49% 22% 29% B- F+ B+ F D- D- A+ D A+ A- A+ A+ F C 51% 15% 33% D C A A+ A+ C F C+ F
0.93 42% 45% 21% -12 +1 0.80 33% 0.5 .16 18% .47 69% .32 0.96 35% 17% 54% -5 +2 0.95 30% 0.3 .10 18% .61 71% .43
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Texas Arlington D F F F F 40% 27% 33% C+ F B C+ B C+ C- B- C B F F F F 63% 23% 14% D F A+ F A- A+ F A- F
1.00 47% 23% 25% -13 -1 0.75 33% 1.1 .38 16% .36 75% .27 0.94 68% 50% 40% +10 +1 1.26 19% 1.3 .24 33% .51 65% .33
Feb
14		 Tarleton St. D+ C+ D- B C- 33% 15% 53% C C- A+ D B F A+ A A+ A C+ F C D 48% 24% 29% D D A A+ A+ A+ F A+ B-
1.04 62% 33% 38% +4 0 1.10 45% 0.9 .42 31% .64 81% .52 0.84 55% 50% 33% +1 0 1.05 23% 0.7 .17 30% .41 55% .22
Feb
16		 Tarleton St. F B D- F F 38% 32% 30% F+ F B+ F F D- A- F D+ A+ D- D+ A+ D+ 35% 35% 30% A C A+ A+ A+ A F C+ F
0.82 67% 33% 14% -7 -1 0.85 39% 0.6 .22 26% .45 56% .25 0.86 64% 43% 25% 0 -2 0.98 10% 0.7 .07 25% .62 74% .46



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 2.8 2.8 0.2 5.9 4th
5th 0.9 13.4 13.5 1.7 0.0 29.6 5th
6th 8.6 17.6 2.3 0.0 28.5 6th
7th 9.2 20.9 5.8 0.1 36.0 7th
Total 9.2 30.4 36.8 18.7 4.6 0.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.4% 3.8% 3.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 4.6% 5.2% 5.2% 15.3 0.2 0.1 4.3
7-11 18.7% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 18.2
6-12 36.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.6 36.2
5-13 30.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.3 30.1
4-14 9.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 9.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.9 98.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 5.2%