Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#137
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#161
Pace68.0#186
Improvement+0.3#153

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#139
First Shot+2.5#91
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#276
Layup/Dunks+4.5#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#93
Freethrows-1.5#292
Improvement+0.2#148

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#153
First Shot+1.1#138
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#244
Layups/Dunks+3.9#44
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#36
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#335
Freethrows-0.3#216
Improvement+0.1#171
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 4.2% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 43.2% 53.2% 22.5%
.500 or above in Conference 43.2% 53.2% 22.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.9% 1.4%
First Round3.5% 3.9% 2.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Home) - 67.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 42 - 8
Quad 34 - 66 - 14
Quad 48 - 013 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2022 53   @ Texas Tech L 55-64 16%     0 - 1 +3.6 -8.9 +12.1
  Nov 17, 2022 112   @ Louisiana L 88-94 33%     0 - 2 +0.2 +10.3 -9.7
  Nov 21, 2022 265   Louisiana Monroe W 79-58 83%     1 - 2 +12.8 +0.3 +11.7
  Nov 23, 2022 347   @ Alabama A&M W 80-75 85%     2 - 2 -4.4 -1.2 -3.5
  Nov 25, 2022 145   @ Samford W 79-76 41%     3 - 2 +7.1 -1.8 +8.6
  Dec 02, 2022 233   Southern W 74-59 78%     4 - 2 +8.6 -2.4 +10.3
  Dec 10, 2022 139   @ Wyoming L 65-92 40%     4 - 3 -22.6 -1.1 -24.3
  Dec 14, 2022 135   Stephen F. Austin L 79-80 OT 60%     4 - 4 -1.9 -3.3 +1.5
  Dec 17, 2022 175   @ UTEP L 55-60 47%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -2.4 -12.4 +10.2
  Dec 29, 2022 312   Texas San Antonio W 91-69 88%     5 - 5 1 - 1 +11.1 +10.6 +0.4
  Dec 31, 2022 110   @ Charlotte L 66-68 33%     5 - 6 1 - 2 +4.3 +0.5 +3.7
  Jan 05, 2023 170   @ Rice W 88-82 OT 46%     6 - 6 2 - 2 +8.8 +6.9 +1.3
  Jan 07, 2023 175   UTEP W 60-58 67%     7 - 6 3 - 2 -0.9 -4.6 +3.9
  Jan 11, 2023 80   @ North Texas L 65-67 23%     7 - 7 3 - 3 +7.3 +10.8 -3.8
  Jan 14, 2023 71   UAB L 74-81 37%     7 - 8 3 - 4 -1.9 +6.6 -8.9
  Jan 19, 2023 163   Western Kentucky W 85-74 OT 66%     8 - 8 4 - 4 +8.6 +8.4 -0.1
  Jan 21, 2023 121   Middle Tennessee L 51-68 57%     8 - 9 4 - 5 -17.1 -14.8 -4.2
  Jan 26, 2023 71   @ UAB L 59-65 20%     8 - 10 4 - 6 +4.5 -4.8 +8.9
  Jan 28, 2023 312   @ Texas San Antonio W 66-55 75%     9 - 10 5 - 6 +5.6 +3.8 +4.2
  Feb 02, 2023 170   Rice W 77-73 67%    
  Feb 09, 2023 226   @ Florida International W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 11, 2023 52   @ Florida Atlantic L 66-77 15%    
  Feb 16, 2023 80   North Texas L 58-60 43%    
  Feb 18, 2023 110   Charlotte W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 23, 2023 163   @ Western Kentucky L 70-71 44%    
  Feb 25, 2023 121   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-71 36%    
  Mar 02, 2023 226   Florida International W 77-69 76%    
  Mar 04, 2023 52   Florida Atlantic L 69-74 32%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.5 2.9 0.7 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.4 6.1 8.4 2.2 0.1 17.2 4th
5th 0.0 3.9 10.0 2.7 0.1 16.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 10.5 5.2 0.3 17.1 6th
7th 0.3 7.1 8.2 0.8 0.0 16.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 8.3 1.5 0.0 12.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 5.0 2.6 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.1 4.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.5 2.9 9.5 19.4 24.6 22.4 13.9 5.5 1.2 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 10.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 14.3% 14.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 1.2% 8.9% 8.9% 12.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-8 5.5% 6.6% 6.6% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.2
11-9 13.9% 5.1% 5.1% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 13.2
10-10 22.4% 4.4% 4.4% 15.1 0.0 0.8 0.1 21.4
9-11 24.6% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.1 0.7 23.8
8-12 19.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5 18.8
7-13 9.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 9.3
6-14 2.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.9
5-15 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 14.3% 12.2 1.4 8.6 4.3
Lose Out 0.5% 0.4% 16.0 0.4