Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 218
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 186
Pace 62.4 333
Improvement +2.8 81

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 305 D D+ D+ D- C
Defense C+ 122 B- D+ C+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 40 D 53% 302 +0.9 141
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 95 C 37% 203 +1.2 111
Three Pointers 32% 339 F+ 29% 348 -6.9 349
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 190 D- -4.8 332
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 322
Second Chance B- 33.8% 84 F 0.80 364 D+ 0.27 269
Turnovers D+ 18.5% 287
Freethrows D+ 0.28 267 F 63% 364 D- 0.18 338
Total Offense D -5.0 305

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 143 C- 12.1% 249
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 283 C- 5.6% 228
Three Pointers D 78% 308 B 0.3% 41
Total D 50% 303 D 6.8% 295

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 267 B+ 51% 29 -4.0 54
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 295 C+ 37% 120 -1.7 55
Three Pointers 47% 27 C+ 33% 145 +2.8 307
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 223 B -3.1 64
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 85
Second Chance D+ 33.1% 289 C- 1.08 257 D+ 0.36 293
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 122
Freethrows C- 0.32 229 C 72% 175 C- 0.23 224
Total Defense C+ +1.8 122

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 37 A 18.8% 15
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 255 C 5.4% 135
Three Pointers D 88% 306 B- 1.6% 63
Total C- 57% 220 B+ 8.4% 28

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 283 18.0 290
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 184 0.14 84
Improvement +3.1 #51 -0.4 #218

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 252 216 178
Conference Record 8 - 12 10 - 10 12 - 8
Conference Finish 8 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 52% 78% 42%
.500 or above in Conference 68% 92% 59%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 1%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round3% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 28.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 33 - 84 - 11
Quad 411 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 79 @Nevada L 50 - 77 11% -16  1% 0 - 1 F+ -17 F -15 F D- F+ D+ -5 B- F B
 Sat, Nov 15 332 Jackson St. W 68 - 51 85% +3  59% 1 - 1 C+ +3 F -14 F D+ F+ A+ +17 A+ C B-
 Wed, Nov 19 211 @Indiana St. L 51 - 60 37% -5  1% 1 - 2 D -9 F -25 F D- D+ A+ +17 A+ A- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 211 Indiana St. W 75 - 73 60% +1  57% 2 - 2 C- -4 C- -1 C A+ F D+ -3 D+ B+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 349 Alcorn St. W 83 - 58 88% +10  98% 3 - 2 B +9 B+ +8 C- A- A+ B- +3 B B- B-
 Wed, Dec 3 262 @Georgia Southern L 69 - 77 48% -4  17% 3 - 3 D -11 D -6 B F B- D -5 F+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 303 Louisiana W 65 - 44 78% +11  92% 4 - 3 B +10 D+ -4 F+ B+ F A+ +17 B+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 163 @Tulane L 53 - 61 28% -6  4% 4 - 4 D+ -5 F -10 F F+ F B +4 A+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 29 246 UTEP W 75 - 63 66% +11  97% 5 - 4 1 - 0 C+ +4 B- +4 A- F A C+ +1 A F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 171 @Middle Tennessee L 51 - 88 29% -19  2% 5 - 5 1 - 1 F -35 F -13 F+ D- F F -29 F B+ F+
 Sun, Jan 4 168 @Western Kentucky L 61 - 66 29% -7  0% 5 - 6 1 - 2 C- -3 D- -7 F C+ A- B +4 A F+ C+
 Thu, Jan 8 100 Liberty L 56 - 72 30% -8  2% 5 - 7 1 - 3 D- -14 F -13 D- F A D+ -3 A F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 263 Delaware W 70 - 68 OT 70% -5  3% 6 - 7 2 - 3 D+ -7 D -6 F C C- C -1 C+ F C
 Wed, Jan 14 171 Middle Tennessee W 59 - 58 52% -10  6% 7 - 7 3 - 3 C- -3 F -14 F F A A+ +11 A+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 200 @Jacksonville St. L 60 - 64 35% -10  0% 7 - 8 3 - 4 C- -3 C- -2 F+ B+ C- C- -2 C D+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 165 Kennesaw St. W 82 - 76 50% -2  31% 8 - 8 4 - 4 C+ +3 B+ +9 A A D+ D -6 B- D D-
 Wed, Jan 28 246 @UTEP W 69 - 59 43% +6  77% 9 - 8 5 - 4 B +8 C +0 C C F A +9 A B- C
 Sat, Jan 31 114 @Sam Houston St. L 67 - 83 19% -6  1% 9 - 9 5 - 5 D -10 C- -1 F A+ D+ F -10 C+ F F
 Wed, Feb 4 157 New Mexico St. L 63 - 72 49% -2  14% 9 - 10 5 - 6 D- -12 F+ -9 D+ D F D+ -4 F C+ A-
 Sat, Feb 7 114 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 37% -0  35% 10 - 10 6 - 6 B +9 B- +4 C C B- B +4 C- A- A-
 Thu, Feb 12 202 @Missouri St. W 79 - 78 2OT 35% -1  31% 11 - 10 7 - 6 C +2 F -11 C F F A+ +12 A+ F B+
 Sat, Feb 14 185 @Florida International L 64 - 77 32% -4  13% 11 - 11 7 - 7 D- -12 D- -8 C F D- D+ -4 C- F A+
 Wed, Feb 18 200 Jacksonville St. W 77 - 71 58% +11  94% 12 - 11 8 - 7 C +1 C +0 A+ D- F C+ +1 D B+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 165 @Kennesaw St. L 70 - 76 28%
 Thu, Feb 26 202 Missouri St. W 67 - 65 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 185 Florida International W 72 - 71 55%
 Thu, Mar 5 100 @Liberty L 62 - 73 15%
 Sat, Mar 7 263 @Delaware L 63 - 64 48%
Totals 14 - 14 10 - 10 -3 D -5 F D- C C+ +2 F+ F D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D C F+ D- 44% 45% 32% C D B- F D+ D+ D+ F D- C+ B+ C+ C+ B 36% 17% 47% C- B- D+ C- D+ C+ C- C C-
1.01 53% 37% 29% -5 0 0.92 34% 0.8 .27 18% .28 63% .18 1.06 51% 37% 33% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.1 .36 18% .32 72% .20
Nov
4		 Nevada F C- F F F 43% 9% 48% A- F D D D- F+ C+ F C- D+ A- F B+ C+ 30% 33% 37% A- B- F F+ F B F C+ F
0.80 53% 25% 14% -18 +2 0.70 22% 1.1 .25 21% .34 65% .22 1.23 46% 50% 31% -1 -2 0.95 49% 1.2 .60 16% .53 75% .40
Nov
15		 Jackson St. F F F F F 63% 12% 26% A F A F D+ F+ A+ F A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 7% 61% F A+ B F C B- D C D
0.99 48% 0% 27% -13 +3 0.81 46% 0.7 .34 19% .56 58% .32 0.75 27% 0% 21% -24 +1 0.57 23% 1.2 .27 20% .31 76% .24
Nov
19		 Indiana St. F F F F F 46% 30% 24% C- F D F+ D- D+ A F C A+ A+ A+ B A+ 34% 2% 64% C A+ A+ C+ A- D+ B+ F B-
0.71 28% 31% 15% -23 -1 0.56 29% 0.8 .23 17% .34 55% .18 0.84 39% 0% 29% -12 +2 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 17% .20 75% .15
Nov
26		 Indiana St. C- C A+ F C+ 43% 33% 24% D C B- A+ A+ F F A+ F D+ F A+ A+ D+ 54% 8% 38% D D+ A+ F B+ F+ A F B-
1.11 57% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 37% 1.5 .53 19% .13 86% .11 1.08 79% 0% 25% +3 +3 1.13 15% 1.3 .19 15% .17 90% .16
Nov
29		 Alcorn St. B+ C+ D- A C 44% 23% 33% D C- A C- A- A+ F F F B- A C- D+ B+ 51% 24% 24% D- B F A+ B- B- F A+ D
1.31 65% 33% 41% +6 0 1.13 48% 1.2 .58 13% .16 56% .09 0.92 43% 36% 36% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.5 .19 21% .42 48% .20
Dec
3		 Georgia Southern D B A+ D- B 45% 14% 41% C+ B F F F B- D- F F D F F A- F 35% 6% 59% D+ F+ C+ F F C+ C+ D- C-
1.03 64% 71% 30% +5 +1 1.14 23% 0.6 .13 16% .30 53% .16 1.15 76% 67% 28% +2 +2 1.10 27% 1.5 .40 16% .32 78% .25
Dec
13		 Louisiana D+ C F F F 52% 12% 36% B F+ A C- B+ F B A+ A A+ A+ C+ C A 26% 26% 49% D- B+ F A+ A A+ F+ A+ C
1.08 59% 20% 27% -6 +2 0.95 43% 1.0 .43 25% .42 84% .35 0.73 27% 36% 33% -9 -2 0.81 34% 0.3 .11 27% .29 54% .16
Dec
17		 Tulane F F B F F 51% 16% 33% B+ F A+ F F+ F A- A A+ B B- F A+ A+ 28% 13% 59% C- A+ F F+ F D- F C F
0.90 43% 43% 13% -17 +2 0.71 46% 0.5 .22 22% .39 78% .31 1.04 55% 80% 13% -14 0 0.74 29% 1.3 .38 12% .60 77% .46
Dec
29		 UTEP B- F A+ A+ A- 36% 17% 48% B- A- C- F F A A+ F A+ C+ A+ B A- A+ 17% 22% 61% C- A F D- F A+ D- F F
1.17 27% 57% 55% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.4 .14 14% .61 59% .36 0.98 38% 30% 29% -10 -2 0.78 42% 1.1 .47 23% .32 81% .26
Jan
2		 Middle Tennessee F C A- F F+ 37% 24% 39% D F+ C F D- F A+ F B+ F F A+ F F 13% 8% 79% C- F D+ A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ A+
0.87 57% 44% 20% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.8 .19 22% .42 68% .29 1.51 100% 25% 58% +33 0 1.67 32% 0.6 .19 12% .16 25% .04
Jan
4		 Western Kentucky D- D- F+ F F 31% 37% 31% F+ F B C- C+ A- D- F F B A+ A+ A A+ 23% 9% 68% C- A B+ F F+ C+ F D- F
0.94 50% 32% 25% -9 -3 0.78 33% 0.9 .29 14% .34 47% .16 1.02 30% 25% 27% -15 0 0.73 28% 1.5 .40 15% .45 80% .36
Jan
8		 Liberty F F D A D- 34% 22% 44% C- D- D- F F A D+ F F D+ B A+ C- A 46% 8% 46% C+ A F D- F D+ D F F
0.92 29% 36% 41% -6 0 0.90 26% 0.5 .14 13% .21 45% .09 1.18 55% 25% 36% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.1 .32 11% .30 81% .24
Jan
10		 Delaware D C F F+ F 36% 34% 30% D F B- D C C- A+ F A+ C A D D- B- 36% 15% 49% D C+ C F F C D+ B- C-
1.06 59% 25% 29% -7 -2 0.85 33% 0.9 .31 15% .53 63% .34 1.03 47% 43% 39% +1 +1 1.04 20% 1.5 .30 18% .28 73% .20
Jan
14		 Middle Tennessee F F C+ F F 65% 15% 19% A F D+ F F A B C B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ 47% 16% 38% F A+ D- F F A- F A+ C
0.91 44% 38% 10% -16 +3 0.75 23% 0.7 .15 11% .36 76% .28 0.90 43% 14% 35% -10 +1 0.84 34% 1.2 .40 20% .35 50% .17
Jan
17		 Jacksonville St. C- F+ A- F D- 40% 31% 29% F+ F+ A+ F B+ C- D- A+ C C- B- A+ F+ C 45% 9% 45% D+ C C- D- D+ B- D+ F F+
1.03 47% 46% 25% -6 -1 0.88 44% 0.9 .38 17% .27 92% .25 1.10 50% 0% 40% -3 +2 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 19% .38 78% .30
Jan
23		 Kennesaw St. B+ D A+ A+ A 48% 22% 30% C A A B A D+ B- F C- D A+ F C- B- 43% 15% 43% C B- C- D D D- F C F
1.25 50% 60% 50% +8 +1 1.20 39% 1.1 .43 17% .44 67% .29 1.16 40% 57% 35% -4 +1 0.96 36% 1.1 .39 14% .58 70% .41
Jan
28		 UTEP C F A+ A C 38% 30% 32% D+ C B+ F+ C F C B+ B- A A+ A+ C+ A+ 29% 27% 44% C- A B- B B- C F F F
1.07 39% 57% 40% +1 -1 1.02 41% 0.8 .34 25% .37 78% .29 0.91 43% 15% 33% -11 -1 0.77 24% 0.9 .22 17% .35 89% .32
Jan
31		 Sam Houston St. C- F D+ F F 36% 30% 34% D- F A A+ A+ D+ B F+ C F C- C A B 59% 17% 24% F C+ D F F F F B+ F
1.03 41% 36% 25% -11 -1 0.77 41% 1.3 .54 18% .36 63% .23 1.28 59% 38% 27% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.3 .52 9% .61 67% .41
Feb
4		 New Mexico St. F+ B F B- D+ 31% 24% 44% C- D+ A+ F D F A+ F C- D+ C F F F 42% 22% 36% F+ F D B+ C+ A- C A- C+
0.99 64% 9% 35% -4 -1 0.91 48% 0.6 .30 20% .50 56% .28 1.13 58% 50% 44% +8 0 1.18 37% 0.8 .30 19% .29 67% .19
Feb
7		 Sam Houston St. B- C A+ F C- 60% 17% 23% A C A+ F C B- A+ B A+ B A+ D F D+ 30% 22% 48% B+ C- A+ F A- A- F C F+
1.14 59% 67% 8% -3 +2 1.00 43% 0.7 .31 16% .54 74% .40 1.02 38% 42% 46% +4 -1 1.07 18% 1.5 .26 21% .35 71% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Missouri St. F A+ C C- B- 25% 49% 25% F C C F F F F F F A+ C+ A A+ A+ 22% 36% 42% A A+ F C- F B+ D+ D D
0.92 87% 38% 33% +7 -5 1.07 33% 0.3 .10 23% .27 67% .18 0.91 62% 24% 20% -13 -3 0.69 41% 1.2 .47 21% .38 69% .26
Feb
14		 Florida International D- B- F+ D- C- 53% 12% 35% B+ C F F F D- D F F D+ C+ B+ F C- 43% 21% 36% C+ C- F C+ F A+ D A C
0.95 62% 33% 29% -1 +2 1.04 26% 0.8 .19 24% .27 57% .16 1.14 55% 30% 41% +1 0 1.04 52% 1.0 .52 24% .35 61% .21
Feb
18		 Jacksonville St. C A+ F B+ A+ 50% 15% 35% B A+ D+ F D- F C+ F F+ C+ A B- F D- 36% 19% 45% A- D A- B B+ C- D+ B C
1.10 83% 29% 38% +13 +2 1.30 26% 0.9 .22 21% .34 58% .20 1.01 41% 33% 48% +2 0 1.06 24% 0.9 .21 17% .38 64% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.5 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 6.9 17.1 6.5 0.5 31.0 3rd
4th 0.9 14.6 5.7 0.3 21.5 4th
5th 5.1 10.4 0.6 16.2 5th
6th 0.1 9.9 2.9 0.0 12.9 6th
7th 1.0 7.5 0.3 8.7 7th
8th 3.0 1.3 4.3 8th
9th 2.5 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.6 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 7.1 24.8 35.2 24.0 8.0 1.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.0% 11.0% 11.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
12-8 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.5
11-9 24.0% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 22.9
10-10 35.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 34.3
9-11 24.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.1 0.2 24.5
8-12 7.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.1 97.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.7 36.4 54.5 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 4.2%