Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#85
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#57
Pace72.0#100
Improvement+5.0#2

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#41
First Shot+6.0#31
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#217
Layup/Dunks+5.3#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#115
Freethrows+1.7#75
Improvement+3.2#9

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#151
First Shot+2.2#106
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#269
Layups/Dunks+1.8#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#81
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#186
Freethrows-1.2#257
Improvement+1.8#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.5% 24.0% 15.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.0% 5.7% 1.7%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 12.2
.500 or above 96.4% 97.6% 90.6%
.500 or above in Conference 93.2% 94.0% 89.2%
Conference Champion 24.5% 26.0% 17.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four2.5% 2.7% 1.1%
First Round21.3% 22.6% 14.7%
Second Round5.9% 6.5% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.8% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 22 - 22 - 5
Quad 36 - 39 - 8
Quad 411 - 120 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 10   @ Alabama L 64-93 10%     0 - 1 -9.0 -1.5 -6.8
  Nov 12, 2021 244   Jackson St. W 70-68 89%     1 - 1 -5.4 -5.2 -0.3
  Nov 19, 2021 340   @ Northwestern St. W 83-64 93%     2 - 1 +8.8 +2.6 +6.0
  Nov 24, 2021 259   Louisiana Monroe W 96-74 90%     3 - 1 +13.9 +13.5 -0.9
  Nov 27, 2021 74   @ North Carolina St. L 81-90 35%     3 - 2 +0.9 +12.2 -11.4
  Dec 01, 2021 176   Texas Southern W 87-60 81%     4 - 2 +23.6 +12.0 +11.1
  Dec 04, 2021 83   @ Santa Clara W 78-75 38%     5 - 2 +12.3 +8.8 +3.5
  Dec 11, 2021 189   Louisiana W 83-73 83%    
  Dec 18, 2021 11   LSU L 71-82 16%    
  Dec 30, 2021 126   Marshall W 86-80 72%    
  Jan 01, 2022 130   Western Kentucky W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 06, 2022 169   @ UTEP W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 08, 2022 278   @ Texas San Antonio W 83-74 81%    
  Jan 13, 2022 281   Southern Miss W 79-63 92%    
  Jan 16, 2022 281   @ Southern Miss W 76-66 80%    
  Jan 22, 2022 46   UAB L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 27, 2022 186   Rice W 84-74 81%    
  Jan 29, 2022 106   North Texas W 68-63 66%    
  Feb 03, 2022 183   @ Florida Atlantic W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 215   @ Florida International W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 10, 2022 220   @ Charlotte W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 17, 2022 169   UTEP W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 19, 2022 278   Texas San Antonio W 86-71 91%    
  Feb 24, 2022 186   @ Rice W 81-77 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 106   @ North Texas L 65-66 46%    
  Mar 02, 2022 203   Old Dominion W 73-62 83%    
  Mar 05, 2022 46   @ UAB L 70-77 28%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.9 7.6 6.4 3.1 0.8 24.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.5 7.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.4 5.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 16.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.9 4.2 1.0 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.5 0.8 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 2.9 0.8 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.0 0.1 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.4 6.0 8.8 12.1 14.6 15.4 14.2 11.3 7.0 3.1 0.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.9% 3.1    3.0 0.1
16-2 91.4% 6.4    5.1 1.3 0.0
15-3 67.5% 7.6    4.6 2.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 34.5% 4.9    1.8 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.1% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.5% 24.5 15.5 6.8 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 86.4% 48.8% 37.5% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 73.3%
17-1 3.1% 74.1% 41.8% 32.3% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 55.4%
16-2 7.0% 54.5% 36.2% 18.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.1 3.2 28.7%
15-3 11.3% 38.2% 29.6% 8.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.0 12.3%
14-4 14.2% 27.4% 24.7% 2.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 10.3 3.6%
13-5 15.4% 20.4% 19.8% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.2 12.2 0.7%
12-6 14.6% 14.2% 14.1% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 12.5 0.2%
11-7 12.1% 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.0%
10-8 8.8% 7.0% 7.0% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.2
9-9 6.0% 4.1% 4.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.7
8-10 3.4% 4.1% 4.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.3
7-11 2.0% 2.9% 2.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
6-12 0.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.5% 18.5% 4.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.6 4.2 8.2 4.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 77.5 5.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.6 17.6 5.9 11.8 37.3 21.6 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 96.3% 6.1 14.8 14.8 33.3 22.2 7.4 3.7