Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.0 284
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 277
Pace 74.1 52
Improvement +7.4 3

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #299 D+ C- D- D- C
Defense C- #248 D+ C D- B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 116 59% 159 +1.7 118
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 149 31% 347 -1.0 232
Three Pointers 37% 264 32% 272 -3.3 292
1st FG Attempt 0.97 259 -2.6 258
Second Chance 28.4% 237 1.00 215 0.28 243
Turnovers 19.6% 326
Freethrows 0.24 344 71% 211 0.17 345
Total Offense -4.7 299

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 85 57% 155 -1.9 249
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 114 40% 256 -1.1 274
Three Pointers 35% 327 39% 352 +0.0 174
1st FG Attempt 1.08 279 -2.9 280
Second Chance 32.1% 246 0.96 85 0.31 172
Turnovers 13.8% 338
Freethrows 0.25 38 70% 70 0.18 33
Total Defense -2.3 248

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.0 196 +0.1 181
Shot Type Accuracy -2.5 266 +2.8 288
Possession Length 17.1 154 16.1 24
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 201 0.19 245
Improvement +3.6 #32 +3.8 #20

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 4% 10% 1%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 31% 15% 38%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 31.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 123 - 18
Quad 44 - 48 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 69 @Arizona St. L 64 - 81 6% -11  0% 0 - 1 D+ -6 F+ -9 F B- D+ B +4 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 149 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 95 33% -11  4% 0 - 2 F -25 D- -7 D D B F -17 F C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 249 @Nebraska Omaha L 85 - 90 31% -3  11% 0 - 3 D+ -7 C+ +3 B D- C F+ -9 F A+ F+
 Mon, Nov 17 13 @Gonzaga L 50 - 122 1% -34  0% 0 - 4 F -50 F -22 F D- F F -18 F F+ D-
 Wed, Nov 19 125 @Washington St. L 74 - 98 13% -12  14% 0 - 5 F -19 D+ -3 B+ F F F -15 D+ F F
 Fri, Nov 28 204 @Robert Morris L 54 - 61 24% -11  0% 0 - 6 D+ -7 F -18 F C- F A +10 A C+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 333 Stetson W 70 - 68 65% -3  30% 1 - 6 D -9 F -11 D F+ F+ C+ +2 D+ D B+
 Sat, Dec 6 178 @Oregon St. L 70 - 81 20% -11  0% 1 - 7 D -9 D -5 D A- F+ D+ -4 F B- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 46 @Washington L 69 - 105 3% -18  0% 1 - 8 F -22 C- -1 A- F C+ F -20 F C F
 Thu, Dec 18 311 @Northern Arizona L 57 - 65 46% -0  47% 1 - 9 D- -14 F -20 F F F B +5 B D+ F+
 Mon, Dec 29 203 @Utah Tech L 66 - 80 24% -2  42% 1 - 10 0 - 1 D- -14 F -11 D- D F C- -2 D+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 169 Texas Arlington L 77 - 86 37% -1  46% 1 - 11 0 - 2 D- -13 C- -1 B- D+ D F -12 F A- D
 Thu, Jan 8 91 @Utah Valley L 72 - 89 8% -10  0% 1 - 12 0 - 3 D -9 C- -1 C C B- D -7 D- C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 138 @California Baptist L 55 - 58 15% -6  0% 1 - 13 0 - 4 C +1 D- -8 F A+ F A- +8 A+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 214 Tarleton St. W 106 - 105 OT 46% +5  93% 2 - 13 1 - 4 D+ -5 B +6 B- B+ B+ F -11 D- F D
 Sat, Jan 17 260 Abilene Christian W 74 - 52 56% +11  96% 3 - 13 2 - 4 B+ +13 D -5 C- C D A+ +18 A+ A C+
 Wed, Jan 21 91 Utah Valley W 84 - 70 19% +4  81% 4 - 13 3 - 4 A- +16 A- +10 A+ A- F+ B+ +6 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 203 @Utah Tech L 91 - 102 24% -8  8% 4 - 14 3 - 5 D -11 A +13 B B- A- F -23 F+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 169 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 80 19% -14  0% 4 - 15 3 - 6 F+ -17 F -11 F F C D -6 D C- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 260 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 76 33% -4  7% 5 - 15 4 - 6 C +0 B +7 A+ B F D -6 F B- F
 Sat, Feb 7 214 Tarleton St. L 59 - 62 46% -1  30% 5 - 16 4 - 7 D -9 F -16 F D+ F B+ +7 C+ B+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 138 California Baptist L 69 - 74 32%
 Sat, Feb 14 169 @Texas Arlington L 66 - 75 19%
 Thu, Feb 19 214 @Tarleton St. L 72 - 79 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 260 @Abilene Christian L 70 - 74 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 203 Utah Tech L 75 - 76 45%
 Thu, Mar 5 91 Utah Valley L 72 - 81 19%
 Sat, Mar 7 138 California Baptist L 69 - 74 32%
Totals 7 - 21 6 - 12 -7 D+ -5 D+ C- D- C- -2 D+ C D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C D- D+ D+ 41% 22% 37% C D+ C- C- C- D- F+ C- D- C- C C- F+ D+ 42% 22% 35% C D+ C- B- C D- B B- B+
1.02 59% 31% 32% -3 0 0.97 28% 1.0 .28 20% .24 71% .17 1.12 57% 40% 39% +3 0 1.08 32% 1.0 .31 14% .25 70% .17
Nov
4		 Arizona St. F+ C F F F 46% 17% 37% B+ F B C- B- D+ F A+ F B D- B F F+ 44% 17% 39% D F+ C+ A+ A+ A- B- B+ B
0.88 56% 20% 14% -16 +1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 22% .14 100% .14 1.11 67% 33% 43% +8 +1 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 19% .34 70% .24
Nov
8		 UT Rio Grande Valley D- B F D D+ 31% 27% 42% D D D+ D D B D+ F D- F C+ A+ F F 47% 12% 42% F+ F F A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ A+
0.98 65% 27% 30% -3 -1 0.93 28% 0.8 .21 15% .31 63% .19 1.30 57% 14% 64% +16 +2 1.37 44% 0.6 .28 16% .08 60% .05
Nov
15		 Nebraska Omaha C+ A A D- B 45% 14% 41% B B C- F D- C D- D D- F+ C D+ F F 44% 22% 35% D+ F C+ A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.14 73% 50% 29% +5 +1 1.16 28% 0.7 .21 13% .26 71% .19 1.21 58% 42% 53% +11 0 1.24 25% 0.3 .06 13% .39 80% .31
Nov
17		 Gonzaga F C+ F F F 29% 29% 43% C F D+ F D- F D+ D+ D+ F F F F F 36% 42% 22% A+ F B- F F+ D- C+ F C-
0.61 56% 25% 17% -15 -2 0.68 20% 0.6 .11 28% .26 67% .17 1.49 74% 63% 57% +24 -3 1.44 35% 1.6 .54 11% .27 80% .22
Nov
19		 Washington St. D+ B- B- A A- 31% 31% 38% D- B+ F F F F D+ C+ C- F F+ F C D 36% 24% 40% B+ D+ D F F F B+ B+ B+
1.03 63% 44% 40% +7 -2 1.12 17% 0.8 .13 19% .28 75% .21 1.36 71% 57% 35% +10 -1 1.21 34% 1.9 .66 10% .25 69% .17
Nov
28		 Robert Morris F C F F F 47% 22% 31% C- F D B+ C- F D- F F A A F A+ A 27% 31% 41% A A C+ C C+ D B- A+ A-
0.84 57% 10% 21% -12 0 0.78 25% 1.1 .28 23% .32 63% .20 0.94 43% 56% 19% -8 -2 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 15% .22 50% .11
Nov
29		 Stetson F A- F F D- 52% 20% 28% B- D F A- F+ F+ B- A+ A C+ D+ F A- D 36% 28% 36% B- D+ D- C D B+ A+ F A-
1.01 73% 20% 21% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.3 .28 19% .30 88% .27 0.98 61% 50% 28% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.0 .30 22% .18 80% .15
Dec
6		 Oregon St. D D A+ F F+ 57% 8% 35% A D D- A+ A- F+ F F F D+ F B+ F F 40% 24% 36% B- F C+ B- B- C+ B D+ B-
1.00 52% 50% 22% -9 +3 0.90 26% 1.7 .43 18% .24 64% .16 1.15 70% 33% 44% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.1 .28 18% .33 79% .26
Dec
13		 Washington C- A+ A- D- A 28% 35% 37% D A- D+ F F C+ F F F F D F F F 35% 27% 38% C F C C+ C F D+ D+ D
0.97 75% 45% 29% +4 -3 1.05 23% 0.4 .10 15% .17 50% .08 1.47 67% 50% 48% +14 -1 1.28 37% 1.1 .40 3% .33 78% .26
Dec
18		 Northern Arizona F F F+ A F 54% 21% 25% C+ F F F F F D F+ D- B A- B- F B+ 51% 31% 18% C- B C- D- D+ F+ D+ B- C-
0.88 46% 30% 42% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 23% .24 67% .16 1.00 48% 33% 44% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.1 .27 12% .30 65% .19
Dec
29		 Utah Tech F F B D F+ 51% 14% 35% B- D- D+ D D F A- F C+ C- B A+ F C- 53% 11% 36% F D+ F B+ C- C B- A+ B
0.92 48% 43% 29% -7 +2 0.92 28% 0.9 .26 21% .37 62% .23 1.11 55% 17% 45% +2 +2 1.11 38% 0.7 .28 17% .22 62% .13
Jan
3		 Texas Arlington C- A F F B- 47% 22% 31% B+ B- D C D+ D C- B+ C F B- D- F F 41% 22% 37% B F A+ D+ A- D F+ D+ F
1.06 71% 27% 25% 0 +1 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 19% .36 76% .27 1.18 50% 45% 56% +10 0 1.22 24% 1.0 .24 18% .42 76% .32
Jan
8		 Utah Valley C- F F A+ C 40% 19% 42% C+ C D A- C B- C- F F+ D D- B+ F F 52% 19% 30% B- D- F A C- C C+ A- B
0.99 43% 20% 45% -2 0 0.98 26% 1.2 .31 19% .32 58% .19 1.22 68% 30% 44% +8 +1 1.20 46% 0.9 .43 21% .28 63% .17
Jan
10		 California Baptist D- F F F F 42% 18% 40% B- F A A+ A+ F F+ C+ D- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 27% 35% A A+ F+ D+ F+ F D+ A+ B-
0.90 42% 13% 22% -18 +1 0.67 36% 1.3 .46 20% .25 75% .18 0.95 37% 23% 18% -21 -1 0.59 44% 1.0 .42 10% .35 58% .20
Jan
15		 Tarleton St. B B F+ B C+ 40% 11% 49% B- B- C- A+ B+ B+ A+ C+ A+ F B B F D 61% 18% 21% F D- B- F F D D C+ D
1.17 67% 33% 38% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.5 .45 20% .58 74% .43 1.16 50% 33% 57% +2 +2 1.09 28% 1.5 .44 18% .38 75% .28
Jan
17		 Abilene Christian D B F C+ D+ 45% 12% 43% B- C- B F+ C D F C- F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 55% 14% 31% F A+ D+ A+ A C+ F F+ F
1.04 65% 17% 36% +2 +2 1.10 34% 0.9 .31 24% .26 71% .18 0.73 30% 29% 20% -23 +2 0.59 35% 0.4 .16 21% .44 76% .34
Jan
21		 Utah Valley A- B- F A+ A+ 36% 23% 40% D+ A+ A C+ A- F+ C+ A+ B+ B+ A A+ A+ A+ 48% 13% 39% C A+ C A- B+ F D+ A+ C+
1.19 59% 27% 53% +9 -1 1.19 39% 1.1 .43 24% .35 84% .30 0.99 48% 14% 23% -14 +2 0.77 37% 0.9 .35 14% .33 60% .20
Jan
24		 Utah Tech A A+ F D+ B+ 50% 24% 26% C- B C- A- B- A- A+ A A+ F C- F+ F F+ 52% 18% 31% D- F+ F+ F F F D D D-
1.26 76% 25% 31% +5 0 1.12 30% 1.2 .37 12% .47 80% .38 1.41 63% 45% 42% +7 +1 1.19 34% 1.3 .46 4% .29 75% .22
Jan
29		 Texas Arlington F F B F+ D- 27% 43% 31% F F F+ F F C A- F+ B- D C- A+ F D 53% 18% 29% D D F A C- D- D+ C D+
0.87 31% 43% 27% -8 -4 0.78 20% 0.8 .15 17% .45 65% .29 1.14 56% 22% 40% -1 +1 1.02 51% 0.7 .37 17% .38 73% .27
Jan
31		 Abilene Christian B A+ A+ A+ A+ 53% 32% 16% D- A+ A- D+ B F C+ A+ A- D F C+ F F 30% 32% 38% A F A+ F B- F A+ A+ A+
1.16 85% 50% 50% +22 0 1.45 38% 1.0 .38 32% .45 86% .39 1.11 81% 35% 40% +10 -2 1.17 22% 1.1 .25 13% .20 50% .10
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Tarleton St. F F F B F 33% 23% 44% D F B F D+ F F A+ F B+ A F C C+ 50% 32% 18% C C+ B A- B+ B+ A+ A+ A+
0.86 38% 27% 38% -7 -1 0.88 38% 0.8 .30 28% .16 88% .14 0.90 44% 50% 33% -3 -1 0.94 27% 0.9 .24 23% .23 67% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.7 0.4 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.1 1.8 0.1 6.3 4th
5th 2.3 12.3 16.1 6.4 0.6 0.0 37.6 5th
6th 3.2 17.6 15.9 3.9 0.2 40.8 6th
7th 6.8 6.2 0.9 0.0 13.9 7th
Total 10.0 26.1 29.1 21.3 9.8 3.1 0.7 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.7% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 3.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 3.0
8-10 9.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 9.6
7-11 21.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 21.0
6-12 29.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 28.9
5-13 26.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 26.0
4-14 10.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.4%