Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.6 275
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 266
Pace 74.2 45
Improvement +7.3 4

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 278 C- C- D D- C
Defense D+ 256 D+ C D- B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 112 C 59% 152 +1.6 116
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 109 D- 32% 336 -0.7 220
Three Pointers 37% 260 C- 33% 238 -2.6 269
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 193 C- -1.7 232
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 229
Second Chance C- 28.6% 231 C- 0.98 257 C- 0.28 251
Turnovers D 19.4% 324
Freethrows D- 0.25 342 C- 71% 229 D- 0.17 342
Total Offense D+ -4.1 278

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 238 C 11.4% 210
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 20% 246 D 7.8% 321
Three Pointers C- 83% 221 D 1.6% 324
Total D+ 52% 267 D 7.0% 314

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 102 C+ 56% 131 +1.2 224
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 101 D+ 41% 304 +1.6 310
Three Pointers 35% 328 F+ 39% 360 -0.1 175
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 159 D+ +2.8 290
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 269
Second Chance C- 31.6% 232 C+ 0.99 124 C 0.31 191
Turnovers D- 13.4% 343
Freethrows B+ 0.25 35 B- 70% 74 B+ 0.18 31
Total Defense D+ -2.6 256

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 171 C 11.1% 169
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 174 C 4.8% 179
Three Pointers B 78% 221 C+ 1.3% 324
Total B- 52% 112 C+ 6.2% 133

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 165 16.1 23
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 223 0.19 255
Improvement +4.4 #15 +2.9 #45

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 4% 13% 1%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 36% 7% 48%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Away) - 28.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 34 - 114 - 17
Quad 44 - 48 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 62 @Arizona St. L 64 - 81 5% -11  0% 0 - 1 D+ -5 F+ -9 F C+ D+ B +4 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 151 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 95 35% -11  4% 0 - 2 F -26 D- -7 D D+ B F -18 F C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 238 @Nebraska Omaha L 85 - 90 31% -3  11% 0 - 3 D+ -6 C+ +2 B F+ C+ F+ -8 F A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 10 @Gonzaga L 50 - 122 1% -34  0% 0 - 4 F -50 F -21 F D- F F -18 F F D
 Wed, Nov 19 121 @Washington St. L 74 - 98 13% -12  14% 0 - 5 F -18 D+ -3 B+ F F F -14 C- F F
 Fri, Nov 28 178 @Robert Morris L 54 - 61 21% -11  0% 0 - 6 D+ -5 F -17 F C F A+ +11 A+ B- D
 Sat, Nov 29 325 Stetson W 70 - 68 65% -3  30% 1 - 6 D -9 F -11 D F+ F+ B- +2 D+ D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 158 @Oregon St. L 70 - 81 18% -11  0% 1 - 7 D -8 D+ -4 D+ A- F+ D+ -4 F B C+
 Sat, Dec 13 44 @Washington L 69 - 105 4% -18  0% 1 - 8 F -21 C- -1 A- F C+ F -20 F C+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 311 @Northern Arizona L 57 - 65 47% -0  47% 1 - 9 D- -14 F -20 F F F B +5 B D+ F+
 Mon, Dec 29 188 @Utah Tech L 66 - 80 23% -2  42% 1 - 10 0 - 1 D- -13 F -11 D- D F C -1 C- C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 183 Texas Arlington L 77 - 86 42% -1  46% 1 - 11 0 - 2 D- -13 C- -1 B- D D F -12 F A- D
 Thu, Jan 8 102 @Utah Valley L 72 - 89 9% -10  0% 1 - 12 0 - 3 D -9 C- -2 C C- B- D- -7 D- D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 138 @California Baptist L 55 - 58 15% -6  0% 1 - 13 0 - 4 C +2 D- -8 F A+ F A +9 A+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 15 224 Tarleton St. W 106 - 105 OT 49% +5  93% 2 - 13 1 - 4 D+ -5 B +7 B- A- A- F -13 F+ F D
 Sat, Jan 17 242 Abilene Christian W 74 - 52 53% +11  96% 3 - 13 2 - 4 A- +15 D+ -3 C- C+ D+ A+ +17 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 102 Utah Valley W 84 - 70 21% +4  81% 4 - 13 3 - 4 A- +16 B+ +9 A A- F+ B+ +7 A+ B F
 Sat, Jan 24 188 @Utah Tech L 91 - 102 23% -8  8% 4 - 14 3 - 5 D -10 A +13 B B- A- F -22 F+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 183 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 80 22% -14  0% 4 - 15 3 - 6 F+ -17 F -11 F F C D -6 D D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 242 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 76 31% -4  7% 5 - 15 4 - 6 C +2 B+ +8 A+ B+ F D- -7 F B- F
 Sat, Feb 7 224 Tarleton St. L 59 - 62 49% -1  30% 5 - 16 4 - 7 D -9 F -15 F D+ F B+ +5 C+ B B+
 Thu, Feb 12 138 California Baptist L 66 - 83 31% -8  4% 5 - 17 4 - 8 F -18 D -6 C+ F+ B+ F -14 D- F F
 Sat, Feb 14 183 @Texas Arlington W 78 - 73 22% +3  87% 6 - 17 5 - 8 B- +7 B +6 A+ C F C+ +0 C- A- F
 Thu, Feb 19 224 @Tarleton St. L 72 - 78 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 242 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 74 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 188 Utah Tech L 75 - 77 44%
 Thu, Mar 5 102 Utah Valley L 73 - 82 21%
 Sat, Mar 7 138 California Baptist L 69 - 74 32%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 11 -7 D+ -4 F C- C D+ -3 C- C- D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C D- C- C- 41% 44% 37% C C- C- C- C- D D- C- D- D+ C+ D+ F+ D+ 42% 23% 35% C D+ C- C+ C D- B+ B- B+
1.03 59% 32% 33% -2 0 0.99 29% 1.0 .28 19% .25 71% .17 1.12 56% 41% 39% +3 0 1.08 32% 1.0 .31 13% .25 70% .17
Nov
4		 Arizona St. F+ C F F F 46% 17% 37% B+ F B D+ C+ D+ F A+ F B D- B F F+ 44% 17% 39% D F+ C+ A+ A+ A- C+ A- B
0.88 56% 20% 14% -16 +1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 22% .14 100% .14 1.11 67% 33% 43% +8 +1 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 19% .34 70% .24
Nov
8		 UT Rio Grande Valley D- B F D D 31% 27% 42% D D D+ D D+ B D+ F D- F C+ A+ F F 47% 12% 42% F+ F F A+ C+ C- A+ A+ A+
0.98 65% 27% 30% -3 -1 0.93 28% 0.8 .21 15% .31 63% .19 1.30 57% 14% 64% +16 +2 1.37 44% 0.6 .28 16% .08 60% .05
Nov
15		 Nebraska Omaha C+ A A D- B- 45% 14% 41% B B C- F F+ C+ D D+ D F+ C D+ F F 44% 22% 35% D+ F C+ A+ A+ D- F F F
1.14 73% 50% 29% +5 +1 1.16 28% 0.7 .21 13% .26 71% .19 1.21 58% 42% 53% +11 0 1.24 25% 0.3 .06 13% .39 80% .31
Nov
17		 Gonzaga F C+ F F F 29% 29% 43% C F D+ F D- F D+ D+ D F F+ F F F 36% 42% 22% A+ F C+ F F D C+ F C-
0.61 56% 25% 17% -15 -2 0.68 20% 0.6 .11 28% .26 67% .17 1.49 74% 63% 57% +24 -3 1.44 35% 1.6 .54 11% .27 80% .22
Nov
19		 Washington St. D+ B B- A A- 31% 31% 38% D- B+ F F F F C- C+ C- F F+ F C+ D 36% 24% 40% B+ C- D- F F F B B+ B+
1.03 63% 44% 40% +7 -2 1.12 17% 0.8 .13 19% .28 75% .21 1.36 71% 57% 35% +10 -1 1.21 34% 1.9 .66 10% .25 69% .17
Nov
28		 Robert Morris F C F F F 47% 22% 31% C- F D B+ C F D- F F A+ A+ F A+ A 27% 31% 41% A A+ B- C+ B- D C+ A+ A-
0.84 57% 10% 21% -13 0 0.78 25% 1.1 .28 23% .32 63% .20 0.94 43% 56% 19% -8 -2 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 15% .22 50% .11
Nov
29		 Stetson F A F F D- 52% 20% 28% B- D F A- F+ F+ B- A+ A B- D+ F A- D 36% 28% 36% B- D+ D- C D+ B+ A+ F A-
1.01 73% 20% 21% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.3 .28 19% .30 88% .27 0.98 61% 50% 28% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.0 .30 22% .18 80% .15
Dec
6		 Oregon St. D+ D A+ F D- 57% 8% 35% A D+ D- A+ A- F+ F F F D+ F B F F 40% 24% 36% B- F B- B B C+ B D+ B-
1.00 52% 50% 22% -9 +3 0.90 26% 1.7 .43 18% .24 64% .16 1.15 70% 33% 44% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.1 .28 18% .33 79% .26
Dec
13		 Washington C- A+ A- D- A 28% 35% 37% D A- C- F F C+ F F F F D F F F 35% 27% 38% C F C C+ C+ F D+ D+ D
0.97 75% 45% 29% +4 -3 1.05 23% 0.4 .10 15% .17 50% .08 1.47 67% 50% 48% +14 -1 1.28 37% 1.1 .40 3% .33 78% .26
Dec
18		 Northern Arizona F F F A F 54% 21% 25% C F F F F F D- F F+ B A- B F B+ 51% 31% 18% C B C- D- D+ F+ D+ B- C-
0.88 46% 30% 42% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 23% .24 67% .16 1.00 48% 33% 44% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.1 .27 12% .30 65% .19
Dec
29		 Utah Tech F F B D F+ 51% 14% 35% B- D- D+ D+ D F A- F C+ C B- A+ F C 53% 11% 36% F C- F A- C- C B- A B
0.92 48% 43% 29% -7 +2 0.92 28% 0.9 .26 21% .37 62% .23 1.11 55% 17% 45% +2 +2 1.11 38% 0.7 .28 17% .22 62% .13
Jan
3		 Texas Arlington C- A F F C+ 47% 22% 31% B+ B- D C D D C- B C F B- D- F F 41% 22% 37% B- F A+ D+ A- D F+ D F+
1.06 71% 27% 25% -1 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 19% .36 76% .27 1.18 50% 45% 56% +10 0 1.22 24% 1.0 .24 18% .42 76% .32
Jan
8		 Utah Valley C- F F A+ C 40% 19% 42% C+ C D B+ C- B- C- F F+ D- D- B+ F F+ 52% 19% 30% B- D- F A- D+ C C+ A- B
0.99 43% 20% 45% -2 0 0.98 26% 1.2 .31 19% .32 58% .19 1.22 68% 30% 44% +8 +1 1.20 46% 0.9 .43 21% .28 63% .17
Jan
10		 California Baptist D- F F F F 42% 18% 40% B- F A A+ A+ F F+ B- D- A A+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 27% 35% A- A+ F+ D+ D- F D A+ B-
0.90 42% 13% 22% -18 +1 0.67 36% 1.3 .46 20% .25 75% .18 0.95 37% 23% 18% -21 -1 0.59 44% 1.0 .42 10% .35 58% .20
Jan
15		 Tarleton St. B B D- B+ C+ 40% 11% 49% B B- D+ A+ A- A- A+ C+ A+ F B B+ F D 61% 18% 21% F F+ B- F F D D C D
1.17 67% 33% 38% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.5 .45 20% .58 74% .43 1.16 50% 33% 57% +2 +2 1.09 28% 1.5 .44 18% .38 75% .28
Jan
17		 Abilene Christian D+ B F C+ D+ 45% 12% 43% B- C- B+ F+ C+ D+ F C- F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 55% 14% 31% F A+ D+ A+ A+ C F D- F
1.04 65% 17% 36% +2 +2 1.10 34% 0.9 .31 24% .26 71% .18 0.73 30% 29% 20% -23 +2 0.59 35% 0.4 .16 21% .44 76% .34
Jan
21		 Utah Valley B+ B- F A+ A+ 36% 23% 40% D+ A A- C+ A- F+ C+ A+ A- B+ A A+ A+ A+ 48% 13% 39% C A+ C A- B F D+ A+ C+
1.19 59% 27% 53% +9 -1 1.19 39% 1.1 .43 24% .35 84% .30 0.99 48% 14% 23% -14 +2 0.77 37% 0.9 .35 14% .33 60% .20
Jan
24		 Utah Tech A A+ F D+ B+ 50% 24% 26% C- B C- A B- A- A+ A A+ F C- F+ F F+ 52% 18% 31% D F+ D- F F F D- D- D-
1.26 76% 25% 31% +5 0 1.12 30% 1.2 .37 12% .47 80% .38 1.41 63% 45% 42% +7 +1 1.19 34% 1.3 .46 4% .29 75% .22
Jan
29		 Texas Arlington F F B F+ F+ 27% 43% 31% F F F+ F F C A- F+ B- D C- A+ F D 53% 18% 29% D D F A+ D+ D- D+ C D+
0.87 31% 43% 27% -9 -4 0.78 20% 0.8 .15 17% .45 65% .29 1.14 56% 22% 40% -1 +1 1.02 51% 0.7 .37 17% .38 73% .27
Jan
31		 Abilene Christian B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 53% 32% 16% D- A+ A D+ B+ F C+ A+ A D- F C+ F F 30% 32% 38% A F A+ F B- F A+ A+ A+
1.16 85% 50% 50% +22 0 1.45 38% 1.0 .38 32% .45 86% .39 1.11 81% 35% 40% +10 -2 1.17 22% 1.1 .25 13% .20 50% .10
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Tarleton St. F F F B F 33% 23% 44% D F B F D+ F F A+ F B+ A F C C+ 50% 32% 18% C C+ B- B+ B B+ A+ A A+
0.86 38% 27% 38% -7 -1 0.88 38% 0.8 .30 28% .16 88% .14 0.90 44% 50% 33% -3 -1 0.94 27% 0.9 .24 23% .23 67% .15
Feb
12		 California Baptist D C+ F A B- 46% 24% 30% C C+ D F F+ B+ C+ F D- F A- F F+ F 40% 29% 31% A D- C F F F A+ D+ A+
0.98 57% 25% 40% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .34 55% .18 1.23 43% 59% 39% +3 -1 1.05 37% 1.4 .51 12% .13 75% .10
Feb
14		 Texas Arlington B B- A+ A- A+ 36% 29% 36% C- A+ A- F C F B+ D+ B C+ A+ F D C- 45% 26% 30% B C- A- B+ A- F F B F
1.12 63% 69% 38% +12 -1 1.24 36% 0.9 .32 23% .43 70% .30 1.05 38% 58% 36% -3 0 0.96 29% 0.8 .24 13% .48 69% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.2 0.5 3rd
4th 0.5 6.4 8.6 3.0 0.2 18.6 4th
5th 0.7 15.1 21.1 6.2 0.6 43.5 5th
6th 5.6 15.0 2.4 0.1 23.1 6th
7th 10.6 3.5 0.1 14.2 7th
Total 16.9 34.1 30.0 14.8 3.8 0.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 3.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.8
8-10 14.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 14.5
7-11 30.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.4 29.6
6-12 34.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 33.9
5-13 16.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 99.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 10.8%