Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.5 278
Results Rating -6.8 271
Pace 74.3 43
Improvement +6.8 11

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 251 C- C- D- D- C
Defense D+ 278 D+ C D- B C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 114 C 58% 180 +1.3 126
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 99 D- 32% 338 -0.8 224
Three Pointers 37% 263 C+ 34% 154 -1.7 242
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 190 C- -1.2 215
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 207
Second Chance C- 29.3% 211 D+ 0.97 280 C- 0.28 247
Turnovers D- 19.5% 328
Freethrows D- 0.25 339 C- 71% 213 D- 0.18 330
Total Offense D+ -3.1 251

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 269 C- 11.5% 214
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 224 D- 8.0% 330
Three Pointers C- 82% 226 D 1.5% 313
Total D+ 51% 281 D 7.0% 321

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 59 C 58% 179 +2.8 272
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 125 D 42% 315 +1.4 297
Three Pointers 35% 338 F+ 39% 349 -0.8 146
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 198 D +3.1 301
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.09 294
Second Chance C- 31.4% 219 C+ 0.98 107 C 0.31 177
Turnovers D- 13.3% 346
Freethrows B 0.26 52 B- 70% 73 B 0.18 46
Total Defense D+ -3.4 278

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 135 C 11.0% 169
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 158 C 4.7% 183
Three Pointers B+ 77% 30 B- 1.4% 77
Total B- 51% 78 C+ 6.3% 126

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 174 15.9 12
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 215 0.20 293
Improvement +5.6 #4 +1.2 #121

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 298 277 253
Results Rating Rank 314 275 245
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 7 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 55% 28% 75%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round0% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Home) - 43.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 113 - 18
Quad 44 - 47 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 60 @Arizona St. L 64 - 81 5% -11  0% 0 - 1 D+ -5 F+ -9 F B- D+ B +4 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 145 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 95 34% -11  4% 0 - 2 F -25 D- -8 D D B- F -17 F C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 239 @Nebraska Omaha L 85 - 90 31% -3  11% 0 - 3 D+ -6 C+ +2 B F+ C+ D- -8 F A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 12 @Gonzaga L 50 - 122 1% -34  0% 0 - 4 F -50 F -22 F D- F F -18 F F D
 Wed, Nov 19 126 @Washington St. L 74 - 98 13% -12  14% 0 - 5 F -18 D+ -3 B F F F -14 C- F F
 Fri, Nov 28 179 @Robert Morris L 54 - 61 21% -11  0% 0 - 6 D+ -5 F -17 F C- F A+ +11 A+ B- D
 Sat, Nov 29 326 Stetson W 70 - 68 66% -3  30% 1 - 6 D -9 F -11 D F+ F+ B- +3 D+ D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 158 @Oregon St. L 70 - 81 19% -11  0% 1 - 7 D+ -8 D+ -4 D+ A- F+ D+ -4 F B C+
 Sat, Dec 13 48 @Washington L 69 - 105 4% -18  0% 1 - 8 F -22 C- -1 A- F C+ F -20 F C F
 Thu, Dec 18 304 @Northern Arizona L 57 - 65 46% -0  47% 1 - 9 D- -13 F -19 F F F B+ +5 B D+ F+
 Mon, Dec 29 189 @Utah Tech L 66 - 80 23% -2  42% 1 - 10 0 - 1 D- -13 F -11 D- D F C -1 D+ C C
 Sat, Jan 3 180 Texas Arlington L 77 - 86 41% -1  46% 1 - 11 0 - 2 D- -13 C +0 B D+ D F -13 F A- D
 Thu, Jan 8 95 @Utah Valley L 72 - 89 8% -10  0% 1 - 12 0 - 3 D -8 C -0 C C B- D- -7 F+ D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 138 @California Baptist L 55 - 58 16% -6  0% 1 - 13 0 - 4 C +1 D- -7 F A+ F A- +8 A+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 230 Tarleton St. W 106 - 105 OT 51% +5  93% 2 - 13 1 - 4 D+ -6 B +6 B- B+ B+ F -12 F+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 245 Abilene Christian W 74 - 52 54% +11  96% 3 - 13 2 - 4 A- +15 D+ -3 C- C+ C- A+ +17 A+ A C
 Wed, Jan 21 95 Utah Valley W 84 - 70 19% +4  81% 4 - 13 3 - 4 A- +17 A- +11 A+ A D- B+ +6 A+ B F
 Sat, Jan 24 189 @Utah Tech L 91 - 102 23% -8  8% 4 - 14 3 - 5 D -10 A +12 B B- B+ F -22 F+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 180 @Texas Arlington L 61 - 80 22% -14  0% 4 - 15 3 - 6 F+ -17 F -10 F F C D- -7 D D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 245 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 76 31% -4  7% 5 - 15 4 - 6 C +2 B+ +8 A+ B F D- -7 F B- F
 Sat, Feb 7 230 Tarleton St. L 59 - 62 51% -1  30% 5 - 16 4 - 7 D -10 F -16 F D F B+ +6 C+ B A-
 Thu, Feb 12 138 California Baptist L 66 - 83 32% -8  4% 5 - 17 4 - 8 F -19 D -5 C+ F+ B+ F -14 D- F F
 Sat, Feb 14 180 @Texas Arlington W 78 - 73 22% +3  87% 6 - 17 5 - 8 B- +7 B +7 A+ C F C -1 C- A- F
 Thu, Feb 19 230 @Tarleton St. L 74 - 78 29% -1  34% 6 - 18 5 - 9 C- -5 B- +4 D C- C+ F+ -9 F B- F
 Sat, Feb 21 245 @Abilene Christian L 83 - 87 31% +4  73% 6 - 19 5 - 10 D+ -5 B- +5 A+ C F F -10 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 189 Utah Tech L 76 - 78 43%
 Thu, Mar 5 95 Utah Valley L 73 - 82 19%
 Sat, Mar 7 138 California Baptist L 70 - 75 33%
Totals 7 - 21 6 - 12 -7 D+ -3 C- C- C D+ -3 C+ C- D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C D- C+ C- 41% 45% 37% C C- C- D+ C- D- D- C- D- D+ C D F+ D 43% 22% 35% C- D+ C- C+ C D- B B- B
1.04 58% 32% 34% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.0 .28 20% .25 71% .18 1.13 58% 42% 39% +3 0 1.09 31% 1.0 .31 13% .26 70% .18
Nov
4		 Arizona St. F+ C- F F F 46% 17% 37% B+ F B+ C- B- D+ F A+ F B D- B F F+ 44% 17% 39% D F+ C+ A+ A+ A- C+ A- B
0.88 56% 20% 14% -16 +1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 22% .14 100% .14 1.11 67% 33% 43% +8 +1 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 19% .34 70% .24
Nov
8		 UT Rio Grande Valley D- B F D D 31% 27% 42% D D D D+ D B- D F D- F C+ A+ F F 47% 12% 42% F+ F F A+ C+ C- A+ A+ A+
0.98 65% 27% 30% -3 -1 0.93 28% 0.8 .21 15% .31 63% .19 1.30 57% 14% 64% +16 +2 1.37 44% 0.6 .28 16% .08 60% .05
Nov
15		 Nebraska Omaha C+ A A D- B- 45% 14% 41% B B C- F F+ C+ D+ D+ D D- C D+ F F 44% 22% 35% D+ F C+ A+ A+ D- F F F
1.14 73% 50% 29% +5 +1 1.16 28% 0.7 .21 13% .26 71% .19 1.21 58% 42% 53% +11 0 1.24 25% 0.3 .06 13% .39 80% .31
Nov
17		 Gonzaga F C F F F 29% 29% 43% C F D+ F D- F D D+ D F F F F F 36% 42% 22% A+ F B- F F D B- F C-
0.61 56% 25% 17% -15 -2 0.68 20% 0.6 .11 28% .26 67% .17 1.49 74% 63% 57% +24 -3 1.44 35% 1.6 .54 11% .27 80% .22
Nov
19		 Washington St. D+ B B- A A- 31% 31% 38% D- B F F F F C- C+ C F F+ F C+ D 36% 24% 40% B+ C- D F F F B B+ B+
1.03 63% 44% 40% +7 -2 1.12 17% 0.8 .13 19% .28 75% .21 1.36 71% 57% 35% +10 -1 1.21 34% 1.9 .66 10% .25 69% .17
Nov
28		 Robert Morris F C F F F 47% 22% 31% C- F D B+ C- F D- F F A+ A+ F A+ A 27% 31% 41% A+ A+ B- C+ B- D C+ A+ B+
0.84 57% 10% 21% -13 0 0.78 25% 1.1 .28 23% .32 63% .20 0.94 43% 56% 19% -8 -2 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 15% .22 50% .11
Nov
29		 Stetson F A F F D- 52% 20% 28% B- D F A- F+ F+ B- A+ A B- D+ F A D+ 36% 28% 36% B- D+ D- C D+ B+ A+ F B+
1.01 73% 20% 21% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.3 .28 19% .30 88% .27 0.98 61% 50% 28% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.0 .30 22% .18 80% .15
Dec
6		 Oregon St. D+ D A+ F D- 57% 8% 35% A D+ D- A+ A- F+ F F F D+ F B F F 40% 24% 36% B- F B- B B C+ B D+ B-
1.00 52% 50% 22% -9 +3 0.90 26% 1.7 .43 18% .24 64% .16 1.15 70% 33% 44% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.1 .28 18% .33 79% .26
Dec
13		 Washington C- A+ A- D- A 28% 35% 37% D A- D+ F F C+ F F F F D F+ F F 35% 27% 38% C F C- C+ C F D D+ D
0.97 75% 45% 29% +4 -3 1.05 23% 0.4 .10 15% .17 50% .08 1.47 67% 50% 48% +14 -1 1.28 37% 1.1 .40 3% .33 78% .26
Dec
18		 Northern Arizona F F F A F 54% 21% 25% C F F F F F F+ F+ F B+ A- B- F B+ 51% 31% 18% C B C D- D+ F+ D+ B- C-
0.88 46% 30% 42% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 23% .24 67% .16 1.00 48% 33% 44% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.1 .27 12% .30 65% .19
Dec
29		 Utah Tech F F B+ D F+ 51% 14% 35% B D- D+ D D F A F B- C B- A+ F C 53% 11% 36% F D+ F A C C C+ A+ B
0.92 48% 43% 29% -7 +2 0.92 28% 0.9 .26 21% .37 62% .23 1.11 55% 17% 45% +2 +2 1.11 38% 0.7 .28 17% .22 62% .13
Jan
3		 Texas Arlington C A F F B- 47% 22% 31% B+ B D C+ D+ D C- B C+ F B- D- F F 41% 22% 37% B- F A+ D+ A- D F+ D- F
1.06 71% 27% 25% -1 +1 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 19% .36 76% .27 1.18 50% 45% 56% +10 0 1.22 24% 1.0 .24 18% .42 76% .32
Jan
8		 Utah Valley C F F A+ C 40% 19% 42% C+ C D A C B- C- F F+ D- D- B+ F F 52% 19% 30% B- F+ F B+ D+ C C+ A- B-
0.99 43% 20% 45% -2 0 0.98 26% 1.2 .31 19% .32 58% .19 1.22 68% 30% 44% +8 +1 1.20 46% 0.9 .43 21% .28 63% .17
Jan
10		 California Baptist D- F F F F 42% 18% 40% B- F A A+ A+ F F+ B- D- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 27% 35% A- A+ F+ D+ F+ F D A+ C+
0.90 42% 13% 22% -18 +1 0.67 36% 1.3 .46 20% .25 75% .18 0.95 37% 23% 18% -21 -1 0.59 44% 1.0 .42 10% .35 58% .20
Jan
15		 Tarleton St. B B D- B B- 40% 11% 49% B B- D+ A+ B+ B+ A+ C+ A+ F B B F D 61% 18% 21% F F+ B- F F D+ D- C D
1.17 67% 33% 38% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.5 .45 20% .58 74% .43 1.16 50% 33% 57% +2 +2 1.09 28% 1.5 .44 18% .38 75% .28
Jan
17		 Abilene Christian D+ B F C+ D+ 45% 12% 43% B- C- B+ F+ C+ C- F C- F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 55% 14% 31% F A+ D+ A+ A C F D- F
1.04 65% 17% 36% +2 +2 1.10 34% 0.9 .31 24% .26 71% .18 0.73 30% 29% 20% -23 +2 0.59 35% 0.4 .16 21% .44 76% .34
Jan
21		 Utah Valley A- B- F A+ A+ 36% 23% 40% D+ A+ A B A D- B- A+ A- B+ A A+ A+ A+ 48% 13% 39% C A+ C+ B+ B F D A C
1.19 59% 27% 53% +9 -1 1.19 39% 1.1 .43 24% .35 84% .30 0.99 48% 14% 23% -14 +2 0.77 37% 0.9 .35 14% .33 60% .20
Jan
24		 Utah Tech A A+ F D+ B+ 50% 24% 26% C- B C- A B- B+ A+ A A+ F D+ F+ F F+ 52% 18% 31% D- F+ D- F F F D- D D-
1.26 76% 25% 31% +5 0 1.12 30% 1.2 .37 12% .47 80% .38 1.41 63% 45% 42% +7 +1 1.19 34% 1.3 .46 4% .29 75% .22
Jan
29		 Texas Arlington F F B F+ D- 27% 43% 31% F F F+ F F C A F+ B- D- C A+ F D 53% 18% 29% D D F A+ D+ D- D+ C- D+
0.87 31% 43% 27% -9 -4 0.78 20% 0.8 .15 17% .45 65% .29 1.14 56% 22% 40% -1 +1 1.02 51% 0.7 .37 17% .38 73% .27
Jan
31		 Abilene Christian B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 53% 32% 16% D- A+ A D+ B F C A+ A D- F C+ F F 30% 32% 38% A F A+ F B- F A+ A+ A+
1.16 85% 50% 50% +22 0 1.45 38% 1.0 .38 32% .45 86% .39 1.11 81% 35% 40% +10 -2 1.17 22% 1.1 .25 13% .20 50% .10
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Tarleton St. F F F B F 33% 23% 44% D F B- F D F F A+ F B+ A F C C+ 50% 32% 18% C C+ B- B+ B A- A+ A A+
0.86 38% 27% 38% -7 -1 0.88 38% 0.8 .30 28% .16 88% .14 0.90 44% 50% 33% -3 -1 0.94 27% 0.9 .24 23% .23 67% .15
Feb
12		 California Baptist D C+ F A B- 46% 24% 30% C C+ D F F+ B+ C+ F D- F A- F F+ F 40% 29% 31% A D- C F F F A+ D+ A+
0.98 57% 25% 40% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .34 55% .18 1.23 43% 59% 39% +3 -1 1.05 37% 1.4 .51 12% .13 75% .10
Feb
14		 Texas Arlington B B- A+ A- A+ 36% 29% 36% C- A+ B+ F C F B+ D+ B C A+ F D D+ 45% 26% 30% B C- A- B A- F F B- F
1.12 63% 69% 38% +12 -1 1.24 36% 0.9 .32 23% .43 70% .30 1.05 38% 58% 36% -3 0 0.96 29% 0.8 .24 13% .48 69% .33
Feb
19		 Tarleton St. B- F F A+ D 35% 21% 44% D+ D A- F C- C+ A+ B+ A+ F+ F C- A+ F 62% 27% 11% F F D- A+ B- F B- A+ A-
1.11 33% 22% 53% 0 0 1.02 42% 0.8 .33 22% .52 78% .40 1.17 71% 40% 17% +5 +1 1.15 35% 0.8 .26 15% .30 65% .19
Feb
21		 Abilene Christian B- C+ D A+ A+ 52% 20% 28% C+ A+ A F C F C- C C- F F F A+ F 62% 12% 26% F F A A+ A+ F F D+ F
1.11 63% 33% 69% +16 +1 1.37 38% 0.8 .29 32% .43 73% .31 1.16 71% 50% 23% +5 +3 1.18 24% 0.6 .14 16% .52 73% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 3.3 1.8 5.1 4th
5th 3.2 25.2 16.0 1.3 45.7 5th
6th 13.8 16.4 1.2 31.4 6th
7th 15.1 2.7 0.0 17.8 7th
Total 32.1 44.3 20.5 3.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 3.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 3.1
7-11 20.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 20.2
6-12 44.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.3 44.0
5-13 32.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 32.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 99.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 20.2%