Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.0 #282
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 #287
Pace 74.3 #49
Improvement +8.4 #2

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #288 D+ C- D D- C+
Defense #256 D+ C D- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #80 1.18 #150 +2.6 #99
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #178 0.57 #355 -2.0 #277
Three Pointers 37% #255 0.94 #277 -3.3 #295
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #256 -2.7 #255
Freethrows 0.24 #343 70% #268 0.16 #347
Second Chance 28.4% #245 1.03 #204 0.29 #237
Turnovers 18.9% #324
Total Offense -4.4 #288

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #70 1.11 #118 -1.5 #230
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #135 0.80 #257 -1.0 #263
Three Pointers 35% #323 1.19 #356 -0.2 #189
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #269 -2.7 #270
Freethrows 0.26 #52 71% #133 0.18 #49
Second Chance 32.3% #264 1.00 #118 0.32 #192
Turnovers 13.4% #334
Total Defense -2.6 #256

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #153 0.3% #190
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.8% #279 5.0% #271
Possession Length 17.0 #137 16.3 #31
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #164 0.18 #232
Improvement +4.5 #11 +4.0 #15

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.8% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.8% 18.3% 4.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 49.7% 31.4% 53.4%
First Four1.1% 1.5% 1.0%
First Round0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Away) - 16.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 113 - 17
Quad 45 - 57 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 77 @Arizona St. L 64 - 81 6% -11  0 - 1 -6 -8 F B- D +2 D A A-
 Sat, Nov 8 191 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 95 42% -11  0 - 2 -28 -5 D+ D B -23 F C- C
 Sat, Nov 15 243 @Nebraska Omaha L 85 - 90 30% -3  0 - 3 -7 +6 B D- C+ -12 F A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 17 11 @Gonzaga L 50 - 122 1% -34  0 - 4 -49 -19 F+ D- F -20 F F+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 131 @Washington St. L 74 - 98 14% -12  0 - 5 -19 -1 B+ F F -18 D+ F F
 Fri, Nov 28 203 @Robert Morris L 54 - 61 24% -11  0 - 6 -7 -16 F C- F +8 A+ C+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 329 Stetson W 70 - 68 63% -3  1 - 6 -8 -8 D D- F+ -1 D+ D B+
 Sat, Dec 6 182 @Oregon St. L 70 - 81 22% -11  1 - 7 -10 -3 D A- F -7 F B- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 46 @Washington L 69 - 105 3% -18  1 - 8 -22 +1 A- F C+ -22 F C F
 Thu, Dec 18 313 @Northern Arizona L 57 - 65 46% -0  1 - 9 -14 -16 F F F +1 B- D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 223 @Utah Tech L 66 - 80 27% -2  1 - 10 0 - 1 -15 -9 D- D+ F -5 D+ C- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 157 Texas Arlington L 77 - 86 34% -1  1 - 11 0 - 2 -12 +3 B- C- D+ -15 F A- D
 Thu, Jan 8 108 @Utah Valley L 72 - 89 10% -10  1 - 12 0 - 3 -10 +1 C C C -10 D- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 140 @California Baptist L 55 - 58 15% -6  1 - 13 0 - 4 +1 -6 F A+ F +7 A+ D F
 Thu, Jan 15 187 Tarleton St. W 106 - 105 OT 42% +5  2 - 13 1 - 4 -4 +7 C+ B B- -11 F+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 17 252 Abilene Christian W 74 - 52 54% +11  3 - 13 2 - 4 +14 -2 C- C D- +16 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 21 108 Utah Valley W 84 - 70 23% +4  4 - 13 3 - 4 +15 +12 A+ A- F +3 A+ B F
 Sat, Jan 24 223 @Utah Tech L 91 - 102 27% -8  4 - 14 3 - 5 -12 +15 B- B- B+ -26 F+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 157 @Texas Arlington L 66 - 76 17%
 Sat, Jan 31 252 @Abilene Christian L 70 - 75 32%
 Sat, Feb 7 187 Tarleton St. L 78 - 80 42%
 Thu, Feb 12 140 California Baptist L 69 - 74 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 157 @Texas Arlington L 66 - 76 17%
 Thu, Feb 19 187 @Tarleton St. L 75 - 83 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 252 @Abilene Christian L 70 - 75 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 223 Utah Tech L 75 - 76 49%
 Thu, Mar 5 108 Utah Valley L 73 - 81 24%
 Sat, Mar 7 140 California Baptist L 69 - 74 32%
Totals 7 - 21 6 - 12 -7 -4 D+ C- D -3 D+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.1 3rd
4th 0.4 3.7 5.8 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 7.3 9.9 3.7 0.3 0.0 22.1 5th
6th 1.6 9.4 12.9 4.2 0.3 28.4 6th
7th 4.4 12.7 11.8 3.6 0.2 32.6 7th
Total 4.4 14.3 22.1 24.1 18.1 10.2 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 42.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 20.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.4% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 1.5% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 1.4
9-9 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.2 4.6
8-10 10.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 10.0
7-11 18.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 17.9
6-12 24.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 23.9
5-13 22.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 22.1
4-14 14.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.2
3-15 4.4% 4.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.1%