Southern Utah
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#133
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#138
Pace72.9#84
Improvement+2.5#34

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#100
First Shot-0.2#192
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#46
Layup/Dunks+1.2#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#131
Freethrows+0.3#168
Improvement+2.6#24

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#178
First Shot-0.5#185
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#162
Layups/Dunks-1.8#251
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#178
Freethrows+2.3#63
Improvement-0.1#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.5% 24.8% 18.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 94.6% 97.4% 90.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 98.1% 96.6%
Conference Champion 32.7% 36.2% 27.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round22.2% 24.6% 18.5%
Second Round2.5% 3.0% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 36 - 7
Quad 414 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 305   @ Dixie St. L 76-83 76%     0 - 1 -12.1 -6.4 -5.2
  Nov 15, 2021 41   @ St. Mary's L 51-70 16%     0 - 2 -5.9 -11.8 +5.9
  Nov 18, 2021 121   @ California L 68-75 2OT 36%     0 - 3 -1.0 -8.1 +8.0
  Nov 23, 2021 135   Yale W 88-85 OT 50%     1 - 3 +5.2 +3.9 +0.9
  Nov 24, 2021 202   Bowling Green W 87-73 64%     2 - 3 +12.5 +7.0 +4.8
  Dec 02, 2021 222   @ Eastern Washington W 89-76 57%     3 - 3 1 - 0 +13.5 +5.0 +7.1
  Dec 04, 2021 345   @ Idaho W 81-75 88%     4 - 3 2 - 0 -4.7 +2.4 -7.0
  Dec 08, 2021 132   Utah Valley W 73-70 61%    
  Dec 18, 2021 21   @ Michigan L 64-78 9%    
  Dec 22, 2021 305   Dixie St. W 87-74 90%    
  Dec 30, 2021 295   Sacramento St. W 79-66 88%    
  Jan 01, 2022 184   Northern Colorado W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 06, 2022 260   Portland St. W 78-68 83%    
  Jan 08, 2022 310   Northern Arizona W 81-67 90%    
  Jan 13, 2022 209   @ Montana W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 15, 2022 192   @ Montana St. W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 22, 2022 322   Idaho St. W 76-61 91%    
  Jan 24, 2022 96   Weber St. W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 27, 2022 260   @ Portland St. W 75-71 65%    
  Feb 03, 2022 345   Idaho W 87-68 95%    
  Feb 05, 2022 222   Eastern Washington W 84-76 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 295   @ Sacramento St. W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 14, 2022 184   @ Northern Colorado W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 19, 2022 192   Montana St. W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 21, 2022 310   @ Northern Arizona W 78-70 76%    
  Feb 24, 2022 209   Montana W 75-68 74%    
  Mar 03, 2022 322   @ Idaho St. W 73-64 78%    
  Mar 05, 2022 96   @ Weber St. L 73-79 30%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.4 7.2 9.4 7.5 3.5 1.0 32.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.7 10.0 7.5 2.9 0.5 29.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.1 5.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.8 3.4 1.0 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.8 5.2 8.3 11.1 14.2 16.0 15.1 12.3 7.9 3.5 1.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-1 100.0% 3.5    3.4 0.1
18-2 94.2% 7.5    6.4 1.1
17-3 76.1% 9.4    6.6 2.7 0.1
16-4 47.5% 7.2    3.7 3.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 21.0% 3.4    1.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.7% 32.7 22.1 8.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.0% 58.5% 57.1% 1.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 3.4%
19-1 3.5% 45.3% 45.2% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.9 0.3%
18-2 7.9% 40.6% 40.6% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.7 0.1%
17-3 12.3% 32.9% 32.9% 13.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 0.7 0.0 8.3
16-4 15.1% 28.5% 28.5% 14.2 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.5 0.1 10.8
15-5 16.0% 21.7% 21.7% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.3 12.6
14-6 14.2% 17.2% 17.2% 14.9 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.5 11.8
13-7 11.1% 12.8% 12.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.5 9.7
12-8 8.3% 9.9% 9.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 7.4
11-9 5.2% 7.2% 7.2% 15.7 0.1 0.3 4.8
10-10 2.8% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.7
9-11 1.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.4
8-12 0.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.5 7.3 6.8 2.3 77.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.4 5.9 8.8 26.5 17.6 11.8 14.7 2.9 8.8 2.9