Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#199
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#96
Pace72.6#81
Improvement+0.2#173

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#169
First Shot-1.5#224
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#87
Layup/Dunks-4.4#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#260
Freethrows+0.7#144
Improvement-0.3#213

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#236
First Shot-1.3#215
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#235
Layups/Dunks-1.0#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#99
Freethrows+2.6#43
Improvement+0.6#132
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.4% 11.1% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 12.9 13.8
.500 or above 64.7% 86.1% 63.8%
.500 or above in Conference 55.0% 69.1% 54.4%
Conference Champion 7.3% 12.3% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 3.7% 7.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round6.4% 11.1% 6.2%
Second Round0.4% 1.3% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 411 - 315 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 253   Florida International W 80-75 72%     1 - 0 -3.0 -5.5 +1.9
  Nov 16, 2024 306   Nebraska Omaha W 79-73 79%     2 - 0 -4.4 +0.8 -5.2
  Nov 19, 2024 86   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-76 15%     2 - 1 +5.3 +9.8 -4.8
  Nov 22, 2024 312   @ San Diego W 72-67 63%     3 - 1 -0.1 -3.0 +2.7
  Nov 23, 2024 265   Idaho W 82-67 66%     4 - 1 +9.1 +20.7 -8.4
  Nov 26, 2024 18   @ UCLA L 43-88 5%     4 - 2 -27.4 -19.1 -7.6
  Nov 30, 2024 244   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-64 71%     5 - 2 +2.6 +0.4 +2.6
  Dec 07, 2024 23   @ Arizona L 72-91 4%    
  Dec 16, 2024 218   @ New Mexico St. L 72-74 44%    
  Dec 18, 2024 166   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 79-83 35%    
  Dec 21, 2024 301   Northern Arizona W 79-70 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 100   @ Grand Canyon L 74-84 19%    
  Jan 09, 2025 323   Tarleton St. W 77-67 83%    
  Jan 11, 2025 161   Texas Arlington W 81-79 56%    
  Jan 18, 2025 123   @ Seattle L 70-77 26%    
  Jan 23, 2025 100   Grand Canyon L 77-81 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 185   California Baptist W 74-72 59%    
  Jan 30, 2025 161   @ Texas Arlington L 78-82 34%    
  Feb 01, 2025 323   @ Tarleton St. W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 06, 2025 185   @ California Baptist L 71-75 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 178   Abilene Christian W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 13, 2025 291   Utah Tech W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 184   Utah Valley W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 20, 2025 178   @ Abilene Christian L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 27, 2025 291   @ Utah Tech W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 184   @ Utah Valley L 73-77 38%    
  Mar 06, 2025 123   Seattle L 73-74 46%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.7 5.5 1.9 0.2 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.1 6.3 1.6 0.1 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.2 6.7 1.8 0.1 14.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.1 6.4 2.0 0.1 14.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.5 5.4 1.7 0.1 13.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 3.0 2.8 0.8 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.4 8.6 12.3 14.3 14.8 13.5 10.7 7.9 4.6 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 96.5% 0.8    0.7 0.1
13-3 82.4% 2.0    1.5 0.5 0.0
12-4 52.6% 2.4    1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
11-5 19.3% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 3.9 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.2% 40.2% 40.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.8% 40.0% 40.0% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-3 2.5% 28.7% 28.7% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8
12-4 4.6% 24.6% 24.6% 13.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 3.4
11-5 7.9% 17.6% 17.6% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.5
10-6 10.7% 9.3% 9.3% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.7
9-7 13.5% 6.1% 6.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 12.6
8-8 14.8% 3.4% 3.4% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 14.3
7-9 14.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 14.0
6-10 12.3% 1.0% 1.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.2
5-11 8.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.6
4-12 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.4
3-13 2.8% 2.8
2-14 1.2% 1.2
1-15 0.3% 0.3
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.3 1.2 0.2 93.6 0.0%