Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.8 #146
Expected Predictive Rating -0.1 #169
Pace 70.9 #125
Improvement +2.0 #90

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #234 C D+ D C B
Defense #88 B- B+ B+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #68 1.20 #124 +3.5 #76
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #281 0.71 #233 -2.0 #280
Three Pointers 41% #179 0.98 #231 -0.7 #207
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #160 +0.8 #158
Freethrows 16.4 #237 75% #120 12.3 #204
Second Chance 30.4% #187 0.94 #304 0.29 #250
Turnovers 18.2% #291
Total Offense -2.5 #234

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #273 1.29 #323 -0.4 #193
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #223 0.76 #167 +0.6 #149
Three Pointers 46% #50 0.81 #5 +2.2 #103
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #105 +2.4 #106
Freethrows 14.5 #48 73% #202 10.6 #62
Second Chance 26.2% #39 0.98 #101 0.26 #45
Turnovers 19.1% #54
Total Defense +3.3 #88

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #65 0.0% #159
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.3% #181 -4.6% #90
Possession Length 16.2 #75 16.9 #104
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #120 0.22 #323
Improvement -1.7 #277 +3.7 #20

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 1.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 14.0% 37.2% 11.3%
.500 or above in Conference 19.3% 46.1% 16.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 1.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 10.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 22 - 62 - 11
Quad 36 - 47 - 15
Quad 46 - 314 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 292 South Carolina Upstate L 66 - 67 85% +4  0 - 1 -11 -11 F A F -1 D- D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 245 Long Beach St. W 82 - 62 79% +10  1 - 1 +12 +3 A+ F F +9 A+ A A+
 Wed, Nov 12 111 UC San Diego L 73 - 78 50% -4  1 - 2 -4 -1 B+ F F -3 D C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 96 Utah Valley W 75 - 74 44% -4  2 - 2 +3 +3 A+ D- F +0 C+ A- C+
 Tue, Nov 18 105 Stephen F. Austin W 80 - 78 47% -1  3 - 2 +3 +13 A+ B F -9 C- F A
 Fri, Nov 21 235 New Orleans W 85 - 76 77% +4  4 - 2 +2 -3 C- A+ F +4 A- B A+
 Wed, Nov 26 281 Pepperdine W 76 - 53 76% +7  5 - 2 +16 +4 B- B- A+ +13 A+ D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 299 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71 - 76 86% +4  5 - 3 -16 -7 F A+ F -9 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 20 @Arkansas L 58 - 82 5% -15  5 - 4 -4 -10 F F F +7 B- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 10 204 @Cal St. Northridge L 87 - 89 53% -4  5 - 5 -2 +13 A+ F C- -15 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 114 @UNLV L 72 - 84 29% -4  5 - 6 0 - 1 -6 +3 C B- B- -9 F F B+
 Tue, Dec 30 39 Utah St. L 63 - 72 20% -7  5 - 7 0 - 2 +1 -12 D- F D +13 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 79 Nevada L 65 - 66 36% +2  5 - 8 0 - 3 +3 -2 B B- F +5 A C+ B+
 Tue, Jan 6 243 @San Jose St. W 70 - 55 59% +11  6 - 8 1 - 3 +14 +2 C C F +13 B+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 46 @San Diego St. L 52 - 71 11% -15  6 - 9 1 - 4 -5 -15 F F D- +11 A+ F C-
 Tue, Jan 13 97 Colorado St. W 79 - 69 44% +7  7 - 9 2 - 4 +12 +13 C C+ A+ +1 A- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 108 Wyoming W 63 - 60 49% -2  8 - 9 3 - 4 +4 -1 C F A- +5 A A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 49 @New Mexico L 67 - 80 10%
 Sat, Jan 24 80 Grand Canyon L 69 - 72 36%
 Sat, Jan 31 341 @Air Force W 70 - 61 81%
 Tue, Feb 3 114 UNLV W 76 - 75 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 79 @Nevada L 66 - 76 19%
 Tue, Feb 10 39 @Utah St. L 67 - 82 8%
 Sat, Feb 14 341 Air Force W 73 - 58 92%
 Tue, Feb 17 108 @Wyoming L 70 - 76 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 49 New Mexico L 70 - 77 25%
 Tue, Feb 24 97 @Colorado St. L 67 - 75 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 66 Boise St. L 67 - 72 34%
 Tue, Mar 3 243 San Jose St. W 74 - 66 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 80 @Grand Canyon L 66 - 75 19%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 12 +1 -3 C D+ D +3 B- B+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.8 3.2 2.5 0.2 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 5.3 5.1 0.7 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 6.7 8.5 2.2 0.1 18.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.3 9.8 12.7 3.9 0.2 29.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 4.0 9.9 9.2 3.5 0.2 27.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.4 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 4.9 12.5 20.3 23.6 18.6 11.2 5.6 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 7.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 11.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 1.9
11-9 5.6% 1.3% 1.3% 12.1 0.1 0.0 5.5
10-10 11.2% 0.7% 0.7% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.1
9-11 18.6% 0.2% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.6
8-12 23.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.1 23.5
7-13 20.3% 20.3
6-14 12.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.5
5-15 4.9% 4.9
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 12.9 99.7 0.0%