Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.0 #155
Expected Predictive Rating -2.3 #204
Pace 71.5 #119
Improvement +0.8 #130

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #224 C+ D+ C D- B
Defense #107 C B- B B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #81 1.23 #101 +3.8 #67
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #289 0.68 #274 -2.4 #302
Three Pointers 42% #158 1.00 #195 +0.4 #163
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #139 +1.7 #137
Freethrows 15.6 #272 73% #168 11.4 #257
Second Chance 30.8% #180 1.00 #241 0.31 #205
Turnovers 19.1% #320
Total Offense -2.1 #224

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #271 1.32 #336 -1.0 #217
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #229 0.74 #174 +0.8 #139
Three Pointers 46% #56 0.88 #36 +0.6 #165
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #163 +0.3 #163
Freethrows 15.7 #109 72% #143 11.2 #259
Second Chance 25.5% #30 1.03 #169 0.26 #52
Turnovers 19.7% #43
Total Defense +2.1 #107

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #65 0.0% #166
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.3% #159 -0.6% #171
Possession Length 15.9 #62 16.6 #85
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #137 0.22 #316
Improvement -1.3 #272 +2.1 #58

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 12.2 13.6
.500 or above 7.6% 20.2% 6.2%
.500 or above in Conference 9.7% 25.8% 7.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 0.7% 2.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 10.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 62 - 11
Quad 34 - 56 - 16
Quad 46 - 312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 285 South Carolina Upstate L 66-67 83%     3.8   0 - 1 -11.0 -11.4 +0.4
  Sat, Nov 8 259 Long Beach St. W 82-62 80%     10.4   1 - 1 +11.3 +2.1 +8.7
  Wed, Nov 12 89 UC San Diego L 73-78 37%     -4.0   1 - 2 -1.6 +0.0 -1.5
  Sat, Nov 15 99 Utah Valley W 75-74 41%     -4.4   2 - 2 +3.3 +3.8 -0.5
  Tue, Nov 18 112 Stephen F. Austin W 80-78 46%     -0.9   3 - 2 +2.9 +11.6 -8.6
  Fri, Nov 21 232 New Orleans W 85-76 75%     4.4   4 - 2 +1.9 -1.5 +2.5
  Wed, Nov 26 267 Pepperdine W 76-53 72%     6.9   5 - 2 +17.0 +4.2 +13.3
  Sun, Nov 30 290 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-76 83%     3.9   5 - 3 -15.2 -7.9 -7.2
  Sat, Dec 6 19 @Arkansas L 58-82 5%     -15.4   5 - 4 -4.7 -9.8 +6.1
  Wed, Dec 10 201 @Cal St. Northridge L 87-89 48%     -3.8   5 - 5 -1.5 +12.7 -14.2
  Sat, Dec 20 143 @UNLV L 72-84 35%     -4.3   5 - 6 0 - 1 -8.0 +2.3 -10.5
  Tue, Dec 30 33 Utah St. L 63-72 16%     -7.3   5 - 7 0 - 2 +1.8 -10.4 +12.9
  Sat, Jan 3 87 Nevada L 65-66 36%     2.0   5 - 8 0 - 3 +2.7 -1.6 +4.2
  Tue, Jan 6 217 @San Jose St. W 70-55 51%     11.1   6 - 8 1 - 3 +14.8 +2.9 +13.4
  Sat, Jan 10 50 @San Diego St. L 66-80 10%    
  Tue, Jan 13 95 Colorado St. L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Jan 17 96 Wyoming L 72-75 41%    
  Wed, Jan 21 55 @New Mexico L 67-80 12%    
  Sat, Jan 24 97 Grand Canyon L 70-72 42%    
  Sat, Jan 31 336 @Air Force W 70-62 76%    
  Tue, Feb 3 143 UNLV W 78-76 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 87 @Nevada L 66-76 18%    
  Tue, Feb 10 33 @Utah St. L 66-83 6%    
  Sat, Feb 14 336 Air Force W 73-59 90%    
  Tue, Feb 17 96 @Wyoming L 69-78 21%    
  Sat, Feb 21 55 New Mexico L 70-77 27%    
  Tue, Feb 24 95 @Colorado St. L 67-76 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 52 Boise St. L 66-73 25%    
  Tue, Mar 3 217 San Jose St. W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Mar 7 97 @Grand Canyon L 67-75 23%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.9 0.1 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.2 0.3 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.5 3.9 0.7 0.0 13.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 5.5 9.5 6.6 1.3 0.0 24.3 9th
10th 0.5 3.8 9.4 11.2 6.6 1.5 0.1 33.2 10th
11th 0.4 2.2 4.2 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.1 8.2 14.3 18.5 18.8 16.3 10.2 5.6 2.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.4% 4.2% 4.2% 12.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 1.0% 2.6% 2.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 1.0
11-9 2.7% 1.9% 1.9% 12.0 0.1 2.6
10-10 5.6% 0.7% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
9-11 10.2% 0.2% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 10.2
8-12 16.3% 0.2% 0.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 16.3
7-13 18.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 18.8
6-14 18.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.5
5-15 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.3
4-16 8.2% 8.2
3-17 3.1% 3.1
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%