Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#184
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#219
Pace73.0#90
Improvement-3.1#346

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#200
First Shot+1.3#137
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#331
Layup/Dunks+2.3#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#123
Freethrows-0.4#209
Improvement-0.1#181

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#172
First Shot-0.5#189
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#187
Layups/Dunks-0.1#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#134
Freethrows+0.7#131
Improvement-3.0#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 8.4% 16.4% 5.2%
.500 or above in Conference 10.7% 20.5% 6.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.9% 4.7% 13.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 28.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 22 - 72 - 11
Quad 34 - 56 - 16
Quad 46 - 312 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 261 South Carolina Upstate L 66-67 75%     0 - 1 -9.5 -10.6 +1.2
  Sat, Nov 8 276 Long Beach St. W 82-62 77%     1 - 1 +10.9 +1.7 +8.7
  Wed, Nov 12 85 UC San Diego L 73-78 31%     1 - 2 -1.5 +0.4 -1.8
  Sat, Nov 15 83 Utah Valley W 75-74 30%     2 - 2 +4.8 +5.5 -0.7
  Tue, Nov 18 137 Stephen F. Austin W 80-78 50%     3 - 2 +0.5 +10.0 -9.4
  Fri, Nov 21 247 New Orleans W 85-76 73%     4 - 2 +1.2 -1.3 +1.6
  Wed, Nov 26 292 Pepperdine W 76-53 71%     5 - 2 +15.8 +3.5 +12.7
  Sun, Nov 30 312 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-76 83%     5 - 3 -16.8 -8.4 -8.3
  Sat, Dec 6 20 @Arkansas L 58-82 4%     5 - 4 -5.3 -9.4 +5.1
  Wed, Dec 10 220 @Cal St. Northridge L 87-89 46%     5 - 5 -2.6 +11.7 -14.3
  Sat, Dec 20 139 @UNLV L 76-82 29%    
  Tue, Dec 30 44 Utah St. L 71-81 17%    
  Sat, Jan 3 98 Nevada L 71-75 37%    
  Tue, Jan 6 189 @San Jose St. L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 52 @San Diego St. L 69-84 9%    
  Tue, Jan 13 70 Colorado St. L 71-78 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 89 Wyoming L 74-78 34%    
  Wed, Jan 21 72 @New Mexico L 72-84 13%    
  Sat, Jan 24 92 Grand Canyon L 71-75 35%    
  Sat, Jan 31 322 @Air Force W 71-66 67%    
  Tue, Feb 3 139 UNLV W 80-79 51%    
  Sat, Feb 7 98 @Nevada L 68-78 19%    
  Tue, Feb 10 44 @Utah St. L 68-84 8%    
  Sat, Feb 14 322 Air Force W 74-63 84%    
  Tue, Feb 17 89 @Wyoming L 71-81 18%    
  Sat, Feb 21 72 New Mexico L 75-81 29%    
  Tue, Feb 24 70 @Colorado St. L 68-81 13%    
  Sat, Feb 28 47 Boise St. L 67-77 19%    
  Tue, Mar 3 189 San Jose St. W 75-72 62%    
  Sat, Mar 7 92 @Grand Canyon L 68-78 18%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.1 0.9 0.1 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.8 6.6 4.7 0.9 0.1 17.1 9th
10th 0.4 2.9 7.3 8.5 5.0 1.1 0.1 25.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 5.5 8.6 6.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 25.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.9 12th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.8 7.7 12.3 14.8 15.5 14.3 11.6 8.0 5.4 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 39.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 3.0% 3.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.2% 7.5% 7.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.7% 3.6% 3.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-8 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
11-9 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
10-10 5.4% 1.0% 1.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
9-11 8.0% 0.2% 0.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0
8-12 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 11.6
7-13 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.3
6-14 15.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.5
5-15 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.8
4-16 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.3
3-17 7.7% 7.7
2-18 3.8% 3.8
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%