Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.0 #144
Expected Predictive Rating +0.0 #161
Pace 71.7 #98
Improvement +1.1 #141

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #231 C D+ D+ C C+
Defense #84 B- C+ B B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #130 1.19 #131 +1.8 #113
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #233 0.75 #178 -1.1 #240
Three Pointers 42% #158 0.99 #212 +0.0 #181
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #153 +0.7 #152
Freethrows 0.30 #205 75% #82 0.23 #167
Second Chance 28.9% #231 0.94 #293 0.27 #268
Turnovers 18.6% #290
Total Offense -2.3 #231

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #291 1.29 #329 -0.1 #184
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #233 0.74 #137 +0.9 #115
Three Pointers 46% #39 0.79 #2 +2.4 #83
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #76 +3.3 #74
Freethrows 0.27 #63 72% #136 0.19 #65
Second Chance 28.3% #92 1.03 #190 0.29 #116
Turnovers 19.7% #42
Total Defense +3.3 #84

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #112 0.0% #165
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.3% #169 -6.3% #59
Possession Length 17.3 #170 16.9 #122
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #99 0.22 #333
Improvement -0.5 #221 +1.6 #104

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 11.0 13.7
.500 or above 7.6% 24.3% 6.4%
.500 or above in Conference 11.7% 37.4% 9.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 6.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 7
Quad 22 - 62 - 12
Quad 35 - 37 - 16
Quad 47 - 214 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 298 South Carolina Upstate L 66 - 67 87% +4  0 - 1 -12 -11 F B+ D -1 D D- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 251 Long Beach St. W 82 - 62 80% +10  1 - 1 +12 +3 A+ F F +8 A B+ A-
 Wed, Nov 12 141 UC San Diego L 73 - 78 61% -4  1 - 2 -7 -0 C+ D D- -6 D D- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 94 Utah Valley W 75 - 74 45% -4  2 - 2 +3 +3 A+ D D- -0 C B+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 102 Stephen F. Austin W 80 - 78 47% -1  3 - 2 +4 +12 A+ B- D -8 C F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 230 New Orleans W 85 - 76 77% +4  4 - 2 +2 -2 C- A+ F+ +4 B+ C+ B+
 Wed, Nov 26 292 Pepperdine W 76 - 53 79% +7  5 - 2 +15 +3 B C+ A+ +13 A+ D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 325 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71 - 76 90% +4  5 - 3 -18 -9 F A+ F -9 C A- F
 Sat, Dec 6 22 @Arkansas L 58 - 82 5% -15  5 - 4 -4 -11 F+ F+ F +8 B- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 10 186 @Cal St. Northridge L 87 - 89 49% -4  5 - 5 -1 +13 A+ F+ C -14 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 128 @UNLV L 72 - 84 34% -4  5 - 6 0 - 1 -7 +1 C- B C+ -8 F F B-
 Tue, Dec 30 35 Utah St. L 63 - 72 17% -7  5 - 7 0 - 2 +2 -10 D F C +13 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 67 Nevada L 65 - 66 34% +2  5 - 8 0 - 3 +4 -1 B B- F +5 B+ C+ B
 Tue, Jan 6 236 @San Jose St. W 70 - 55 59% +11  6 - 8 1 - 3 +14 +3 C C+ F +12 B- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 43 @San Diego St. L 52 - 71 10% -15  6 - 9 1 - 4 -4 -13 D- F C +10 A+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 13 105 Colorado St. W 79 - 69 48% +7  7 - 9 2 - 4 +12 +14 C+ B- A -2 C+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 106 Wyoming W 63 - 60 49% -2  8 - 9 3 - 4 +4 -1 C F A- +5 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 51 @New Mexico L 74 - 83 12% -11  8 - 10 3 - 5 +5 -0 C C F +6 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 65 Grand Canyon L 57 - 68 33% -5  8 - 11 3 - 6 -6 -7 F+ F C +0 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 350 @Air Force W 79 - 62 84% +8  9 - 11 4 - 6 +8 +3 B- F B- +4 B- B B-
 Tue, Feb 3 128 UNLV W 98 - 96 57% -4  10 - 11 5 - 6 +1 +11 A+ C- C -11 F C- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 67 @Nevada L 59 - 69 17% +2  10 - 12 5 - 7 +1 -3 D- C- A +3 A+ D D+
 Tue, Feb 10 35 @Utah St. L 66 - 82 7%
 Sat, Feb 14 350 Air Force W 76 - 60 94%
 Tue, Feb 17 106 @Wyoming L 70 - 76 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 51 New Mexico L 73 - 80 26%
 Tue, Feb 24 105 @Colorado St. L 66 - 73 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 58 Boise St. L 70 - 75 31%
 Tue, Mar 3 236 San Jose St. W 74 - 66 78%
 Sat, Mar 7 65 @Grand Canyon L 66 - 76 17%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 12 +1 -2 C D+ D+ +3 B- C+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.4 1.0 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 2.4 9.4 5.9 0.5 18.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 15.2 10.2 1.0 0.0 28.2 8th
9th 0.9 12.2 14.4 1.6 0.0 29.2 9th
10th 0.4 5.9 11.5 1.9 0.0 19.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.5 7.0 25.4 34.0 21.5 9.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.2
11-9 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 2.1
10-10 9.4% 0.4% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 9.4
9-11 21.5% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.5
8-12 34.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 33.9
7-13 25.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 25.3
6-14 7.0% 7.0
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.6 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%