Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#190
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#180
Pace76.0#53
Improvement+1.8#47

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#205
First Shot+0.6#162
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#291
Layup/Dunks+0.5#157
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#115
Freethrows-0.3#189
Improvement+2.2#20

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#186
First Shot+0.9#136
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#278
Layups/Dunks-1.8#247
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#71
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement-0.4#218
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.4
.500 or above 18.9% 25.4% 10.0%
.500 or above in Conference 13.9% 17.0% 9.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 16.6% 14.0% 20.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Neutral) - 57.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 61 - 10
Quad 35 - 66 - 16
Quad 46 - 313 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 322 South Carolina Upstate L 66-67 83%     0 - 1 -13.2 -12.7 -0.4
  Sat, Nov 8 286 Long Beach St. W 82-62 77%     1 - 1 +10.5 +3.4 +6.6
  Wed, Nov 12 113 UC San Diego L 73-78 42%     1 - 2 -4.8 -0.7 -4.1
  Sat, Nov 15 133 Utah Valley W 75-74 48%     2 - 2 -0.5 +0.6 -1.1
  Tue, Nov 18 131 Stephen F. Austin W 80-78 48%     3 - 2 +0.6 +9.9 -9.3
  Fri, Nov 21 198 New Orleans W 85-76 64%     4 - 2 +3.5 +1.1 +1.5
  Wed, Nov 26 233 Pepperdine W 77-75 58%    
  Sun, Nov 30 261 Cal St. Bakersfield W 80-74 72%    
  Sat, Dec 6 27 @Arkansas L 70-89 4%    
  Wed, Dec 10 205 @Cal St. Northridge L 81-83 42%    
  Sat, Dec 20 97 @UNLV L 79-89 19%    
  Tue, Dec 30 35 Utah St. L 72-84 14%    
  Sat, Jan 3 109 Nevada L 75-77 42%    
  Tue, Jan 6 166 @San Jose St. L 74-78 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 73 @San Diego St. L 68-81 12%    
  Tue, Jan 13 90 Colorado St. L 75-80 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 137 Wyoming L 77-78 50%    
  Wed, Jan 21 94 @New Mexico L 75-85 18%    
  Sat, Jan 24 99 Grand Canyon L 78-82 37%    
  Sat, Jan 31 312 @Air Force W 73-70 61%    
  Tue, Feb 3 97 UNLV L 82-86 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 109 @Nevada L 72-80 23%    
  Tue, Feb 10 35 @Utah St. L 69-87 6%    
  Sat, Feb 14 312 Air Force W 76-67 79%    
  Tue, Feb 17 137 @Wyoming L 74-80 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 94 New Mexico L 78-82 36%    
  Tue, Feb 24 90 @Colorado St. L 72-83 17%    
  Sat, Feb 28 58 Boise St. L 68-77 23%    
  Tue, Mar 3 166 San Jose St. W 77-75 57%    
  Sat, Mar 7 99 @Grand Canyon L 75-85 20%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.4 1.0 0.1 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 1.8 0.2 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.9 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.5 6.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 14.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.5 7.3 4.2 0.8 0.0 20.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 4.3 7.5 6.7 2.9 0.6 0.0 23.4 11th
12th 0.3 1.5 3.1 3.0 1.6 0.5 0.0 10.1 12th
Total 0.3 1.7 4.4 7.5 11.0 13.5 14.1 13.6 11.3 8.7 5.8 3.7 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 88.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 44.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 28.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 3.7% 3.7% 12.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.2% 11.4% 11.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.5% 10.9% 10.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.2% 5.5% 5.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
12-8 2.3% 3.2% 3.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
11-9 3.7% 1.9% 1.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
10-10 5.8% 1.3% 1.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
9-11 8.7% 0.4% 0.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7
8-12 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
7-13 13.6% 0.2% 0.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6
6-14 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
5-15 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.5
4-16 11.0% 11.0
3-17 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
2-18 4.4% 4.4
1-19 1.7% 1.7
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.0%