Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#180
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#201
Pace74.4#63
Improvement-2.1#320

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#231
First Shot-0.1#180
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#311
Layup/Dunks+2.1#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#167
Freethrows-0.4#201
Improvement-0.9#262

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#148
First Shot+1.5#117
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#253
Layups/Dunks+0.6#152
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#89
Freethrows+1.1#120
Improvement-1.2#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 14.0
.500 or above 13.1% 18.5% 7.1%
.500 or above in Conference 11.6% 13.9% 9.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 9.3% 13.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Away) - 52.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 62 - 11
Quad 34 - 56 - 16
Quad 46 - 312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 272 South Carolina Upstate L 66-67 75%     0 - 1 -9.8 -10.5 +0.7
  Sat, Nov 8 280 Long Beach St. W 82-62 77%     1 - 1 +10.5 +2.2 +7.8
  Wed, Nov 12 103 UC San Diego L 73-78 37%     1 - 2 -3.3 -2.1 -1.1
  Sat, Nov 15 84 Utah Valley W 75-74 31%     2 - 2 +4.6 +4.3 +0.3
  Tue, Nov 18 140 Stephen F. Austin W 80-78 50%     3 - 2 +0.3 +9.8 -9.4
  Fri, Nov 21 242 New Orleans W 85-76 72%     4 - 2 +1.5 -1.3 +1.9
  Wed, Nov 26 310 Pepperdine W 76-53 74%     5 - 2 +14.7 +2.5 +12.7
  Sun, Nov 30 297 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-76 80%     5 - 3 -15.5 -8.4 -7.0
  Sat, Dec 6 22 @Arkansas L 58-82 4%     5 - 4 -5.9 -8.3 +3.5
  Wed, Dec 10 259 @Cal St. Northridge W 80-79 53%    
  Sat, Dec 20 124 @UNLV L 77-84 25%    
  Tue, Dec 30 44 Utah St. L 70-80 17%    
  Sat, Jan 3 97 Nevada L 71-75 36%    
  Tue, Jan 6 182 @San Jose St. L 71-74 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 55 @San Diego St. L 68-83 9%    
  Tue, Jan 13 72 Colorado St. L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Jan 17 104 Wyoming L 74-77 39%    
  Wed, Jan 21 85 @New Mexico L 74-85 15%    
  Sat, Jan 24 96 Grand Canyon L 71-75 36%    
  Sat, Jan 31 328 @Air Force W 71-66 68%    
  Tue, Feb 3 124 UNLV L 80-81 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 97 @Nevada L 68-78 19%    
  Tue, Feb 10 44 @Utah St. L 67-83 8%    
  Sat, Feb 14 328 Air Force W 74-63 84%    
  Tue, Feb 17 104 @Wyoming L 71-80 21%    
  Sat, Feb 21 85 New Mexico L 77-82 33%    
  Tue, Feb 24 72 @Colorado St. L 68-81 13%    
  Sat, Feb 28 51 Boise St. L 66-75 21%    
  Tue, Mar 3 182 San Jose St. W 74-71 61%    
  Sat, Mar 7 96 @Grand Canyon L 68-78 19%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.2 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.4 6.2 4.5 1.0 0.0 15.9 9th
10th 0.4 2.4 6.6 8.7 5.2 1.2 0.1 24.5 10th
11th 0.2 1.8 5.4 8.4 6.9 3.4 0.7 0.1 26.9 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.0 12th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.9 7.4 11.6 14.4 15.8 14.2 11.2 8.4 5.6 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 22.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 6.5% 6.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.3% 5.2% 5.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 0.7% 1.9% 1.9% 12.0 0.0 0.7
12-8 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 1.7
11-9 3.1% 1.3% 1.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 3.1
10-10 5.6% 0.7% 0.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 5.6
9-11 8.4% 0.5% 0.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3
8-12 11.2% 0.3% 0.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2
7-13 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 14.2
6-14 15.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.7
5-15 14.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.4
4-16 11.6% 11.6
3-17 7.4% 7.4
2-18 3.9% 3.9
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%