Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#255
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#255
Pace83.0#3
Improvement+0.2#172

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#331
First Shot-5.5#321
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#204
Layup/Dunks-1.4#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#175
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#307
Freethrows+0.2#167
Improvement+0.4#144

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#151
First Shot+1.0#138
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#212
Layups/Dunks-3.8#312
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#70
Freethrows+2.4#53
Improvement-0.1#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 n/a 14.6
.500 or above 0.6% 3.2% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 1.3% 3.2% 1.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 40.3% 30.8% 41.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Away) - 8.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 21 - 81 - 14
Quad 32 - 63 - 20
Quad 46 - 39 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 320   Sacramento St. W 64-57 74%     1 - 0 -4.9 -11.9 +7.1
  Nov 13, 2024 126   @ UC Santa Barbara L 86-91 17%     1 - 1 +0.1 +1.4 -0.7
  Nov 16, 2024 244   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 36%     1 - 2 -17.4 -17.6 +0.9
  Nov 20, 2024 357   Prairie View W 94-83 87%     2 - 2 -6.2 -0.6 -7.0
  Nov 23, 2024 304   @ Long Beach St. W 72-69 47%     3 - 2 -1.4 -4.9 +3.4
  Nov 26, 2024 74   Washington St. L 73-84 12%     3 - 3 -3.5 -5.0 +3.1
  Nov 27, 2024 185   California Baptist L 81-86 2OT 35%     3 - 4 -6.2 -8.5 +3.2
  Dec 04, 2024 37   San Diego St. L 62-84 10%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -12.9 -10.1 -0.6
  Dec 07, 2024 84   @ Santa Clara L 69-84 8%    
  Dec 11, 2024 49   @ BYU L 70-89 4%    
  Dec 14, 2024 312   San Diego W 79-73 71%    
  Dec 21, 2024 185   California Baptist L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 28, 2024 104   @ UNLV L 67-80 12%    
  Dec 31, 2024 65   New Mexico L 78-89 15%    
  Jan 04, 2025 52   @ Utah St. L 68-86 5%    
  Jan 07, 2025 99   @ Colorado St. L 65-79 11%    
  Jan 11, 2025 48   Nevada L 66-79 13%    
  Jan 17, 2025 286   Air Force W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 20, 2025 65   @ New Mexico L 75-92 6%    
  Jan 25, 2025 99   Colorado St. L 68-76 25%    
  Jan 28, 2025 177   @ Wyoming L 71-78 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 53   @ Boise St. L 66-84 5%    
  Feb 04, 2025 194   San Jose St. L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 07, 2025 52   Utah St. L 71-83 14%    
  Feb 11, 2025 48   @ Nevada L 63-82 5%    
  Feb 15, 2025 104   UNLV L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 18, 2025 37   @ San Diego St. L 61-81 3%    
  Feb 22, 2025 286   @ Air Force L 68-70 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 53   Boise St. L 69-81 15%    
  Mar 04, 2025 177   Wyoming L 74-75 46%    
  Mar 08, 2025 194   @ San Jose St. L 70-77 28%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.0 3.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 5.9 7.8 5.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 21.9 9th
10th 0.4 3.8 10.6 10.3 4.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 30.9 10th
11th 2.1 7.3 10.0 6.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 28.0 11th
Total 2.1 7.6 13.8 18.3 18.5 14.9 10.7 7.1 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.3
10-10 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 0.8
9-11 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.8
8-12 3.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 3.9
7-13 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.1
6-14 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.6
5-15 14.9% 14.9
4-16 18.5% 18.5
3-17 18.3% 18.3
2-18 13.8% 13.8
1-19 7.6% 7.6
0-20 2.1% 2.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%