Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#186
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#222
Pace71.5#127
Improvement-4.6#359

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#198
First Shot+1.0#146
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#317
Layup/Dunks+2.4#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#110
Freethrows-1.1#255
Improvement-0.2#193

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#185
First Shot-1.0#205
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#170
Layups/Dunks+0.0#177
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#152
Freethrows+0.3#163
Improvement-4.4#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 12.8 14.0
.500 or above 5.3% 14.4% 4.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.8% 18.0% 5.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.1% 4.6% 13.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 12.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 22 - 72 - 11
Quad 34 - 56 - 17
Quad 46 - 311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 270 South Carolina Upstate L 66-67 75%     0 - 1 -9.7 -10.5 +0.7
  Sat, Nov 8 276 Long Beach St. W 82-62 76%     1 - 1 +10.9 +1.4 +9.0
  Wed, Nov 12 84 UC San Diego L 73-78 29%     1 - 2 -1.2 +0.6 -1.7
  Sat, Nov 15 88 Utah Valley W 75-74 31%     2 - 2 +4.5 +4.8 -0.3
  Tue, Nov 18 136 Stephen F. Austin W 80-78 48%     3 - 2 +0.7 +10.2 -9.5
  Fri, Nov 21 242 New Orleans W 85-76 71%     4 - 2 +1.3 -1.2 +1.7
  Wed, Nov 26 267 Pepperdine W 76-53 65%     5 - 2 +17.3 +3.8 +13.9
  Sun, Nov 30 311 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-76 83%     5 - 3 -16.7 -8.3 -8.4
  Sat, Dec 6 23 @Arkansas L 58-82 4%     5 - 4 -5.8 -10.2 +5.5
  Wed, Dec 10 219 @Cal St. Northridge L 87-89 46%     5 - 5 -2.7 +11.9 -14.6
  Sat, Dec 20 132 @UNLV L 72-84 27%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -7.2 +2.3 -9.7
  Tue, Dec 30 32 Utah St. L 70-82 13%    
  Sat, Jan 3 91 Nevada L 71-76 32%    
  Tue, Jan 6 196 @San Jose St. L 72-74 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 53 @San Diego St. L 66-81 8%    
  Tue, Jan 13 92 Colorado St. L 72-77 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 102 Wyoming L 74-78 37%    
  Wed, Jan 21 67 @New Mexico L 71-84 12%    
  Sat, Jan 24 83 Grand Canyon L 70-76 31%    
  Sat, Jan 31 326 @Air Force W 71-66 67%    
  Tue, Feb 3 132 UNLV L 78-79 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 91 @Nevada L 68-79 16%    
  Tue, Feb 10 32 @Utah St. L 67-85 5%    
  Sat, Feb 14 326 Air Force W 74-63 84%    
  Tue, Feb 17 102 @Wyoming L 71-81 19%    
  Sat, Feb 21 67 New Mexico L 74-81 26%    
  Tue, Feb 24 92 @Colorado St. L 69-80 16%    
  Sat, Feb 28 52 Boise St. L 67-76 22%    
  Tue, Mar 3 196 San Jose St. W 75-71 63%    
  Sat, Mar 7 83 @Grand Canyon L 67-79 15%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 2.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.4 0.2 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.9 6.3 4.2 0.9 0.0 16.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.7 8.4 9.6 5.3 1.1 0.1 28.7 10th
11th 0.2 2.3 6.7 9.4 7.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 29.1 11th
12th 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.3 12th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.6 9.0 13.9 16.8 16.6 13.9 10.3 6.5 3.7 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5 27.3% 0.0    0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 3.3% 3.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.3% 4.8% 4.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.9% 1.9% 1.9% 12.0 0.0 0.8
11-9 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
10-10 3.7% 0.5% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
9-11 6.5% 0.5% 0.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5
8-12 10.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 10.3
7-13 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 13.9
6-14 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.6
5-15 16.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.8
4-16 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.9
3-17 9.0% 9.0
2-18 4.6% 4.6
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%