Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#183
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#220
Pace71.5#125
Improvement-4.1#356

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#200
First Shot+0.9#154
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#307
Layup/Dunks+2.5#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#112
Freethrows-1.2#261
Improvement-0.2#190

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#184
First Shot-0.8#193
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#173
Layups/Dunks-0.1#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#144
Freethrows+0.3#156
Improvement-3.9#358
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 12.1 14.1
.500 or above 5.3% 14.1% 4.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.9% 18.1% 5.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.8% 4.6% 12.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 12.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 22 - 72 - 12
Quad 34 - 56 - 17
Quad 46 - 311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 264 South Carolina Upstate L 66-67 75%     0 - 1 -9.7 -10.4 +0.8
  Sat, Nov 8 275 Long Beach St. W 82-62 76%     1 - 1 +10.8 +1.2 +9.1
  Wed, Nov 12 81 UC San Diego L 73-78 30%     1 - 2 -1.1 +0.6 -1.7
  Sat, Nov 15 85 Utah Valley W 75-74 30%     2 - 2 +4.6 +4.9 -0.3
  Tue, Nov 18 130 Stephen F. Austin W 80-78 48%     3 - 2 +0.8 +10.2 -9.4
  Fri, Nov 21 242 New Orleans W 85-76 72%     4 - 2 +1.4 -1.2 +1.7
  Wed, Nov 26 273 Pepperdine W 76-53 66%     5 - 2 +17.0 +3.7 +13.7
  Sun, Nov 30 307 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-76 82%     5 - 3 -16.2 -7.4 -8.7
  Sat, Dec 6 24 @Arkansas L 58-82 4%     5 - 4 -5.8 -10.3 +5.5
  Wed, Dec 10 207 @Cal St. Northridge L 87-89 43%     5 - 5 -2.0 +11.6 -13.6
  Sat, Dec 20 134 @UNLV L 72-84 27%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -7.3 +2.2 -9.7
  Tue, Dec 30 33 Utah St. L 70-82 13%    
  Sat, Jan 3 89 Nevada L 71-76 31%    
  Tue, Jan 6 195 @San Jose St. L 72-74 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 52 @San Diego St. L 66-81 9%    
  Tue, Jan 13 91 Colorado St. L 72-77 33%    
  Sat, Jan 17 103 Wyoming L 74-77 38%    
  Wed, Jan 21 65 @New Mexico L 71-84 12%    
  Sat, Jan 24 86 Grand Canyon L 70-75 31%    
  Sat, Jan 31 324 @Air Force W 71-66 68%    
  Tue, Feb 3 134 UNLV L 78-79 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 89 @Nevada L 68-79 16%    
  Tue, Feb 10 33 @Utah St. L 67-85 5%    
  Sat, Feb 14 324 Air Force W 74-63 84%    
  Tue, Feb 17 103 @Wyoming L 71-80 20%    
  Sat, Feb 21 65 New Mexico L 74-81 26%    
  Tue, Feb 24 91 @Colorado St. L 69-80 17%    
  Sat, Feb 28 51 Boise St. L 67-76 21%    
  Tue, Mar 3 195 San Jose St. W 75-71 63%    
  Sat, Mar 7 86 @Grand Canyon L 67-78 15%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 4.1 6.4 4.3 0.8 0.0 16.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.6 8.4 9.5 5.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 28.4 10th
11th 0.1 2.1 6.7 9.6 7.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 28.9 11th
12th 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.3 12th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.3 9.1 13.9 16.6 16.7 13.9 10.4 6.6 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 57.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 14.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-9 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 1.9
10-10 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
9-11 6.6% 0.2% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 6.6
8-12 10.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 10.4
7-13 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 13.9
6-14 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.7
5-15 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.6
4-16 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.9
3-17 9.1% 9.1
2-18 4.3% 4.3
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%