Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#184
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#220
Pace71.5#126
Improvement-4.4#357

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#198
First Shot+1.0#150
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#312
Layup/Dunks+2.5#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#106
Freethrows-1.2#255
Improvement-0.2#191

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#183
First Shot-0.8#191
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#173
Layups/Dunks+0.0#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#142
Freethrows+0.3#162
Improvement-4.2#359
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.2 14.4
.500 or above 5.5% 14.4% 4.2%
.500 or above in Conference 7.1% 18.4% 5.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.7% 3.9% 12.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 12.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 22 - 72 - 11
Quad 34 - 56 - 17
Quad 46 - 311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 264 South Carolina Upstate L 66-67 75%     0 - 1 -9.7 -10.4 +0.8
  Sat, Nov 8 275 Long Beach St. W 82-62 76%     1 - 1 +10.8 +1.4 +9.0
  Wed, Nov 12 83 UC San Diego L 73-78 30%     1 - 2 -1.1 +0.5 -1.5
  Sat, Nov 15 85 Utah Valley W 75-74 30%     2 - 2 +4.6 +4.9 -0.3
  Tue, Nov 18 132 Stephen F. Austin W 80-78 48%     3 - 2 +0.8 +10.2 -9.4
  Fri, Nov 21 241 New Orleans W 85-76 72%     4 - 2 +1.4 -1.2 +1.7
  Wed, Nov 26 262 Pepperdine W 76-53 65%     5 - 2 +17.4 +3.8 +13.9
  Sun, Nov 30 305 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71-76 82%     5 - 3 -16.2 -7.4 -8.7
  Sat, Dec 6 23 @Arkansas L 58-82 4%     5 - 4 -5.8 -10.2 +5.5
  Wed, Dec 10 212 @Cal St. Northridge L 87-89 45%     5 - 5 -2.3 +11.7 -14.0
  Sat, Dec 20 133 @UNLV L 72-84 27%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -7.3 +2.2 -9.7
  Tue, Dec 30 33 Utah St. L 70-82 13%    
  Sat, Jan 3 89 Nevada L 71-76 32%    
  Tue, Jan 6 197 @San Jose St. L 72-74 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 52 @San Diego St. L 66-81 8%    
  Tue, Jan 13 91 Colorado St. L 72-77 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 103 Wyoming L 74-77 37%    
  Wed, Jan 21 66 @New Mexico L 71-84 12%    
  Sat, Jan 24 87 Grand Canyon L 70-75 31%    
  Sat, Jan 31 322 @Air Force W 71-66 69%    
  Tue, Feb 3 133 UNLV L 78-79 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 89 @Nevada L 68-79 16%    
  Tue, Feb 10 33 @Utah St. L 67-85 5%    
  Sat, Feb 14 322 Air Force W 74-63 84%    
  Tue, Feb 17 103 @Wyoming L 71-80 20%    
  Sat, Feb 21 66 New Mexico L 74-81 26%    
  Tue, Feb 24 91 @Colorado St. L 69-80 17%    
  Sat, Feb 28 51 Boise St. L 67-76 21%    
  Tue, Mar 3 197 San Jose St. W 75-71 63%    
  Sat, Mar 7 87 @Grand Canyon L 67-78 15%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.5 0.2 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.9 6.5 4.3 0.8 0.0 16.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.4 8.7 9.6 5.1 1.2 0.0 28.6 10th
11th 0.1 2.1 6.6 9.5 7.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 29.0 11th
12th 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.0 12th
Total 0.3 1.4 4.3 8.7 13.7 17.1 16.5 14.0 10.3 6.7 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 4.2% 0.0    0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 0.3% 4.1% 4.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.9
11-9 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 1.9
10-10 3.9% 0.4% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 3.8
9-11 6.7% 0.2% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 6.7
8-12 10.3% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 10.2
7-13 14.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 14.0
6-14 16.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.5
5-15 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.1
4-16 13.7% 13.7
3-17 8.7% 8.7
2-18 4.3% 4.3
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%