Pepperdine
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.0 #267
Expected Predictive Rating -8.9 #300
Pace 68.3 #214
Improvement -0.4 #195

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #318 D C- D D- C-
Defense #185 C C+ C C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #245 1.08 #272 -3.0 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #156 0.72 #219 +0.0 #178
Three Pointers 43% #150 0.94 #267 -0.8 #212
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #279 -3.8 #278
Freethrows 14.2 #319 82% #4 11.6 #245
Second Chance 29.9% #216 0.88 #333 0.26 #291
Turnovers 19.4% #325
Total Offense -5.5 #318

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #90 1.19 #207 -2.6 #267
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #355 0.71 #120 +3.0 #11
Three Pointers 45% #77 0.95 #100 -0.4 #200
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #175 +0.1 #172
Freethrows 15.7 #106 75% #279 11.7 #224
Second Chance 29.7% #141 1.11 #268 0.33 #205
Turnovers 16.9% #169
Total Defense -0.4 #185

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #230 2.4% #352
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.9% #281 -2.5% #135
Possession Length 18.4 #289 17.1 #159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #356 0.18 #198
Improvement -0.9 #245 +0.5 #154

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.9% 2.3% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 50.3% 31.5% 59.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 31.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 32 - 92 - 17
Quad 45 - 57 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 37 @UCLA L 63-74 3%     -9.6   0 - 1 +5.1 +4.3 -0.4
  Sat, Nov 15 175 Northern Colorado L 81-88 OT 43%     -4.6   0 - 2 -11.0 -7.4 -2.6
  Tue, Nov 18 232 New Orleans W 90-79 54%     6.0   1 - 2 +3.9 +7.0 -3.7
  Fri, Nov 21 112 Stephen F. Austin L 60-63 25%     3.4   1 - 3 -2.1 -8.2 +6.0
  Wed, Nov 26 155 Fresno St. L 53-76 28%     -6.9   1 - 4 -23.0 -16.7 -6.7
  Sat, Nov 29 255 @Cal St. Fullerton L 69-83 37%     -5.4   1 - 5 -16.5 -5.9 -10.6
  Tue, Dec 2 210 Abilene Christian L 63-71 50%     -8.0   1 - 6 -13.9 -2.7 -12.3
  Sat, Dec 6 183 Vermont L 56-65 44%     -0.7   1 - 7 -13.5 -14.9 +0.4
  Sat, Dec 13 290 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-62 43%     3.8   2 - 7 +3.8 -2.1 +6.2
  Thu, Dec 18 259 @Long Beach St. L 78-81 38%     1.6   2 - 8 -5.7 +3.1 -8.8
  Sat, Dec 20 256 Rice W 84-62 60%     7.6   3 - 8 +13.4 +5.7 +7.5
  Sun, Dec 28 7 Gonzaga L 56-96 2%     -21.6   3 - 9 0 - 1 -22.5 -10.4 -11.7
  Tue, Dec 30 41 St. Mary's L 45-72 8%     -11.6   3 - 10 0 - 2 -17.4 -17.2 -4.0
  Fri, Jan 2 63 @Santa Clara L 63-82 6%     -7.1   3 - 11 0 - 3 -7.1 -9.4 +3.4
  Sun, Jan 4 141 @Pacific L 69-74 17%     -2.7   3 - 12 0 - 4 -0.9 +1.8 -2.9
  Thu, Jan 8 229 @San Diego L 71-76 32%    
  Sat, Jan 10 103 San Francisco L 65-73 22%    
  Wed, Jan 14 240 Portland W 73-71 57%    
  Wed, Jan 21 7 @Gonzaga L 61-90 0.4%   
  Sat, Jan 24 144 @Washington St. L 66-76 17%    
  Wed, Jan 28 229 San Diego W 74-73 53%    
  Wed, Feb 4 115 @Seattle L 61-74 12%    
  Sat, Feb 7 141 Pacific L 67-71 35%    
  Wed, Feb 11 41 @St. Mary's L 58-80 2%    
  Sat, Feb 14 125 Loyola Marymount L 66-71 31%    
  Wed, Feb 18 240 @Portland L 70-74 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 197 @Oregon St. L 65-72 27%    
  Wed, Feb 25 115 Seattle L 64-71 27%    
  Sat, Feb 28 144 Washington St. L 69-73 37%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.3 1.7 0.9 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 2.5 0.3 5.4 8th
9th 0.4 3.7 4.9 0.9 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 5.6 8.5 2.5 0.1 17.5 10th
11th 0.1 2.3 9.3 11.5 3.5 0.2 26.9 11th
12th 1.8 7.3 12.6 10.2 3.0 0.1 35.0 12th
Total 1.8 7.5 14.9 20.3 20.5 16.1 10.3 5.5 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9 0.7% 0.7
8-10 2.2% 2.2
7-11 5.5% 5.5
6-12 10.3% 10.3
5-13 16.1% 16.1
4-14 20.5% 20.5
3-15 20.3% 20.3
2-16 14.9% 14.9
1-17 7.5% 7.5
0-18 1.8% 1.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%