Pepperdine
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.8 #283
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 #296
Pace 67.4 #227
Improvement -1.6 #264

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #328 D D D- C C-
Defense #188 C C C B+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #261 1.10 #245 -2.7 #275
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #151 0.69 #266 -0.2 #186
Three Pointers 43% #154 0.91 #301 -1.4 #237
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #300 -4.3 #298
Freethrows 16.0 #253 78% #43 12.4 #193
Second Chance 28.6% #240 0.89 #336 0.26 #298
Turnovers 18.8% #310
Total Offense -6.2 #328

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.19 #219 -2.7 #270
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #361 0.77 #201 +2.7 #15
Three Pointers 45% #81 0.96 #113 -0.7 #209
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #201 -0.7 #202
Freethrows 14.4 #40 73% #191 10.5 #312
Second Chance 31.1% #195 1.04 #170 0.32 #186
Turnovers 16.7% #170
Total Defense -0.6 #188

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #238 2.5% #354
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.7% #301 -1.0% #163
Possession Length 18.2 #265 17.2 #176
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #349 0.16 #143
Improvement -1.4 #271 -0.2 #201

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 4.0% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 73.0% 52.0% 73.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 0.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 32 - 102 - 18
Quad 45 - 57 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 38 @UCLA L 63 - 74 3% -10  0 - 1 +5 +5 D A+ C -1 B F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 170 Northern Colorado L 81 - 88 OT 39% -5  0 - 2 -11 -7 D- F C- -3 C+ D A+
 Tue, Nov 18 248 New Orleans W 90 - 79 54% +6  1 - 2 +3 +5 B+ F A+ -3 C C A
 Fri, Nov 21 108 Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 63 22% +3  1 - 3 -2 -7 D+ C- F +5 A- F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 152 Fresno St. L 53 - 76 24% -7  1 - 4 -23 -16 F C+ F -7 D F F
 Sat, Nov 29 228 @Cal St. Fullerton L 69 - 83 28% -5  1 - 5 -15 -4 F F C -10 C F D-
 Tue, Dec 2 231 Abilene Christian L 63 - 71 50% -8  1 - 6 -15 -4 F F B -12 D- C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 202 Vermont L 56 - 65 45% -1  1 - 7 -15 -15 F F F -1 D+ A+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 292 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 70 - 62 42% +4  2 - 7 +3 -2 A- F F +5 A+ A+ B
 Thu, Dec 18 255 @Long Beach St. L 78 - 81 33% +2  2 - 8 -5 +4 A+ A+ F -9 F C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 243 Rice W 84 - 62 53% +8  3 - 8 +15 +6 A+ B- F +9 A+ D B-
 Sun, Dec 28 9 Gonzaga L 56 - 96 2% -22  3 - 9 0 - 1 -23 -10 F B+ C+ -12 C- B- C-
 Tue, Dec 30 42 St. Mary's L 45 - 72 8% -12  3 - 10 0 - 2 -18 -18 F D+ F -4 C- A- C
 Fri, Jan 2 55 @Santa Clara L 63 - 82 4% -7  3 - 11 0 - 3 -6 -9 F D+ F +4 D A+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 146 @Pacific L 69 - 74 16% -3  3 - 12 0 - 4 -1 +1 C D- D+ -2 D+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 218 @San Diego L 63 - 83 27% -12  3 - 13 0 - 5 -20 -7 D F F -14 F D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 103 San Francisco L 60 - 80 20% -12  3 - 14 0 - 6 -18 -8 F D A+ -11 F B- B
 Wed, Jan 14 237 Portland W 67 - 63 51% +0  4 - 14 1 - 6 -3 -6 C- B D- +3 A A+ D
 Wed, Jan 21 9 @Gonzaga L 60 - 90 0%
 Sat, Jan 24 139 @Washington St. L 65 - 76 15%
 Wed, Jan 28 218 San Diego L 72 - 73 48%
 Wed, Feb 4 120 @Seattle L 61 - 73 12%
 Sat, Feb 7 146 Pacific L 67 - 72 34%
 Wed, Feb 11 42 @St. Mary's L 58 - 80 2%
 Sat, Feb 14 140 Loyola Marymount L 65 - 70 32%
 Wed, Feb 18 237 @Portland L 68 - 74 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 176 @Oregon St. L 64 - 72 21%
 Wed, Feb 25 120 Seattle L 64 - 70 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 139 Washington St. L 68 - 73 32%
Totals 7 - 22 4 - 14 -7 -6 D D D- -1 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.1 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 0.9 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 3.2 0.2 5.4 9th
10th 0.1 2.2 6.9 1.6 0.0 10.9 10th
11th 0.3 5.6 12.7 5.2 0.2 24.0 11th
12th 6.7 19.3 20.0 8.3 0.4 54.8 12th
Total 6.7 19.6 25.7 23.3 14.6 6.9 2.6 0.5 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.5% 0.5
7-11 2.6% 2.6
6-12 6.9% 6.9
5-13 14.6% 14.6
4-14 23.3% 23.3
3-15 25.7% 25.7
2-16 19.6% 19.6
1-17 6.7% 6.7
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.7%