Rice
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.9 233
Expected Predictive Rating -4.1 236
Pace 64.5 293
Improvement +2.4 92

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 163 D+ C+ C- C- F
Defense D+ 286 C- C- C- D+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 26% 364 C- 56% 228 -7.7 362
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 89 D+ 35% 265 +2.5 59
Three Pointers 45% 107 C 34% 169 +2.1 108
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -1.9 352 C- -1.2 217
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 281
Second Chance B+ 36.2% 37 D 0.92 320 C+ 0.33 126
Turnovers C- 17.6% 234
Freethrows C 0.30 203 D 69% 291 C- 0.21 230
Total Offense C -0.1 163

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 277 C+ 10.0% 125
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 11% 353 D 7.9% 326
Three Pointers C+ 85% 170 C- 1.1% 228
Total D+ 51% 287 C+ 5.4% 163

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 314 D- 65% 340 -0.7 150
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 15 B 34% 43 +2.0 326
Three Pointers 38% 269 D 37% 310 +0.2 193
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.4 16 D +2.9 295
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 229
Second Chance D+ 32.5% 272 C 1.02 179 C- 0.33 239
Turnovers C- 15.8% 244
Freethrows D+ 0.33 267 D+ 74% 281 D+ 0.25 283
Total Defense D+ -3.8 286

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 167 C- 10.0% 207
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 69 A- 9.5% 21
Three Pointers C+ 83% 132 B- 1.4% 79
Total C+ 53% 116 B- 6.6% 98

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 265 17.2 164
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 133 0.21 301
Improvement +4.3 #18 -1.9 #283

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 265 234 196
Conference Record 5 - 13 7 - 11 8 - 10
Conference Finish 12 11 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 4% 13% 1%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 26.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 14
Quad 47 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 91 @Oregon L 63 - 67 12% -0  47% 0 - 1 B- +5 D -4 D- C+ F A +9 A+ C C+
 Tue, Nov 11 98 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 81 28% -8  1% 0 - 2 D -10 C- -2 D F+ A F+ -9 D- C B-
 Fri, Nov 14 304 East Texas A&M W 71 - 64 76% +2  48% 1 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 B C F C -1 D+ C B+
 Mon, Nov 17 16 @Tennessee L 66 - 91 2% -12  0% 1 - 3 C- -3 C+ +3 C- C- B D- -7 C F D+
 Thu, Nov 20 223 Tarleton St. L 74 - 90 60% -3  42% 1 - 4 F -22 D- -6 D F A F -15 F A- D
 Mon, Nov 24 165 Kennesaw St. L 84 - 89 OT 36% +1  54% 1 - 5 D+ -5 D -4 C- C- D- C -0 C C+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 253 @Florida Gulf Coast L 63 - 78 OT 43% +4  83% 1 - 6 F+ -17 F -22 F D- F A- +7 B A- B
 Wed, Nov 26 338 Oral Roberts W 81 - 62 78% +10  91% 2 - 6 B- +7 A- +11 A- A+ D+ C -1 B+ F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 225 Texas St. W 77 - 72 60% +2  63% 3 - 6 C -2 C+ +2 F A+ C- D+ -3 C- A D
 Sat, Dec 13 140 Arkansas St. W 77 - 76 42% -7  1% 4 - 6 C -1 C +1 C- C- A C- -2 D- A F+
 Sat, Dec 20 276 @Pepperdine L 62 - 84 49% -8  5% 4 - 7 F -26 F -16 F C D F -10 F D- A
 Wed, Dec 31 77 @Tulsa L 48 - 97 10% -16  0% 4 - 8 0 - 1 F -38 F -22 F F D- F -20 F C C
 Sat, Jan 3 103 Memphis L 70 - 76 29% +1  45% 4 - 9 0 - 2 C- -4 B- +4 D+ B+ C- F+ -8 A F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 97 @Wichita St. W 66 - 64 13% +2  59% 5 - 9 1 - 2 B +10 C +2 B- D B- A +9 A+ A+ F+
 Sun, Jan 11 178 Charlotte L 73 - 74 51% -5  5% 5 - 10 1 - 3 D+ -5 C- -1 D- D- C- D+ -4 F A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 14 335 @Texas San Antonio W 89 - 73 67% +11  100% 6 - 10 2 - 3 B- +8 A+ +22 A+ B- C+ F -12 D- F+ D
 Wed, Jan 21 152 Temple L 65 - 69 46% -0  40% 6 - 11 2 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -4 D+ B D- D+ -4 B F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 77 Tulsa L 81 - 87 21% -13  0% 6 - 12 2 - 5 C -1 B+ +8 A A- F+ F -10 B F C
 Wed, Jan 28 242 @East Carolina W 83 - 77 40% +7  95% 7 - 12 3 - 5 C+ +5 B+ +8 B+ B- D+ D+ -3 C+ D+ F+
 Fri, Jan 30 178 @Charlotte L 70 - 80 29% -6  9% 7 - 13 3 - 6 D -8 C+ +3 F A+ D+ F -12 F B- C-
 Wed, Feb 4 138 North Texas W 86 - 83 2OT 42% -1  39% 8 - 13 4 - 6 C +1 C+ +3 F+ A F C- -2 C+ B F+
 Sun, Feb 8 123 @UAB L 65 - 71 18% +1  62% 8 - 14 4 - 7 C -0 D+ -3 F+ B- C B- +2 C+ C- D+
 Wed, Feb 11 118 Florida Atlantic W 81 - 73 35% +7  92% 9 - 14 5 - 7 B- +8 B +7 B C- A+ C+ +1 A+ C D-
 Sat, Feb 14 242 East Carolina L 75 - 85 63% -6  12% 9 - 15 5 - 8 F+ -17 C +1 F+ B- A- F -19 F F F
 Sun, Feb 22 163 @Tulane L 69 - 76 26%
 Wed, Feb 25 57 South Florida L 73 - 83 16%
 Sun, Mar 1 152 @Temple L 69 - 76 25%
 Wed, Mar 4 138 @North Texas L 63 - 71 22%
 Sun, Mar 8 335 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 84%
Totals 11 - 18 7 - 11 -4 C +0 D+ C- F D+ -4 C D C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- D+ C C- 26% 46% 45% F D+ B+ D C+ C- C D C- D+ D- B D D 33% 29% 38% A- C- D+ C C- C- D+ D+ D+
1.09 56% 35% 34% -1 -2 0.96 36% 0.9 .33 18% .30 69% .21 1.14 65% 34% 37% +3 -1 1.05 33% 1.0 .33 16% .33 74% .22
Nov
7		 Oregon D F F A+ D 25% 30% 45% D D- B D C+ F D- D+ D- A B+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 18% 55% A- A+ F+ A C C+ F B+ F
0.95 23% 31% 42% -5 -2 0.87 34% 0.8 .27 21% .21 73% .15 1.01 50% 14% 24% -15 -1 0.71 42% 0.9 .39 18% .70 68% .48
Nov
11		 Stephen F. Austin C- F F A+ C- 28% 43% 28% F D B F F+ A A+ D- A+ F+ F C+ F F 24% 33% 43% A- D- A+ F C B- F F F
1.02 38% 30% 46% -4 -4 0.87 34% 0.6 .20 12% .57 68% .39 1.20 67% 38% 43% +8 -3 1.12 23% 1.4 .32 15% .40 74% .30
Nov
14		 East Texas A&M D+ F D+ A+ B 44% 13% 42% C+ B B+ F+ C F C A+ B- C F F+ A F+ 33% 37% 31% A+ D+ B- D- C B+ C- B+ C+
1.07 45% 33% 53% +5 +1 1.16 38% 0.9 .34 27% .31 80% .25 0.97 69% 44% 27% +2 -2 1.02 21% 1.0 .21 21% .25 62% .15
Nov
17		 Tennessee C+ D- B- D C 26% 26% 48% D C- A- F C- B A+ A- A+ D- D B+ C+ C+ 52% 12% 36% F C D- F+ F D+ C- F+ D
0.96 46% 38% 29% -6 -2 0.86 33% 0.6 .19 16% .43 72% .31 1.33 65% 33% 33% +3 +2 1.12 51% 1.2 .63 16% .38 77% .29
Nov
20		 Tarleton St. D- A- F B- D+ 24% 27% 49% F D D+ F F A C+ F F F F C- D- F 50% 34% 16% C+ F C+ A+ A- D F+ C- F+
0.99 69% 27% 37% +2 -2 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 19% .40 46% .18 1.21 84% 41% 38% +15 -1 1.30 29% 0.8 .21 17% .41 76% .31
Nov
24		 Kennesaw St. D F B B C 33% 29% 38% F C- B F C- D- A+ F A C C+ A+ D- C 40% 17% 43% B- C D A- C+ C- F F F
1.04 44% 44% 38% 0 -1 0.98 34% 0.8 .27 19% .58 63% .37 1.10 54% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 39% 0.8 .32 16% .44 77% .34
Nov
25		 Florida Gulf Coast F C+ C- F F 39% 20% 41% C- F F B- D- F D+ F F+ A- B A+ F B 34% 30% 36% C+ B B- A A- B F C F
0.79 62% 36% 14% -11 0 0.80 21% 1.1 .23 24% .33 65% .21 0.98 53% 20% 44% -1 -2 0.96 28% 0.8 .23 20% .52 73% .38
Nov
26		 Oral Roberts A- F A+ A+ A+ 37% 27% 37% F A- A A+ A+ D+ F A+ C- C A+ F A+ A- 37% 14% 49% C B+ F+ F F C- A A+ A+
1.31 44% 54% 56% +11 -1 1.22 43% 1.4 .61 16% .23 92% .21 1.00 39% 57% 25% -11 +1 0.82 33% 1.4 .45 18% .20 60% .12
Dec
3		 Texas St. C+ A+ D+ F F 23% 27% 50% F F A A+ A+ C- A+ B A+ D+ F+ B D- D- 35% 44% 21% A+ C- D- A+ A D D- B- D+
1.13 80% 33% 23% -5 -2 0.89 39% 1.3 .50 19% .53 76% .40 1.06 67% 35% 36% +2 -3 1.00 38% 0.5 .18 16% .33 74% .25
Dec
13		 Arkansas St. C D F A+ C- 35% 25% 40% D+ C- C+ D C- A B F+ C+ C- F C A F 37% 33% 31% A+ D- B A+ A F+ C A+ B
1.12 53% 14% 45% -1 -1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 10% .37 65% .24 1.10 83% 38% 27% +6 -2 1.10 34% 0.8 .26 16% .33 63% .21
Dec
20		 Pepperdine F F D- F F 51% 13% 36% B- F A- F C D A+ D A F B- A- F F 31% 20% 49% C F F+ D+ D- A C D- C-
0.88 42% 33% 18% -18 +2 0.70 40% 0.9 .36 18% .38 68% .26 1.19 53% 30% 54% +12 -1 1.24 34% 1.0 .34 23% .29 81% .24
Dec
31		 Tulsa F F+ F F F 24% 31% 45% F F C+ F F D- B+ F C- F F A+ F F 53% 14% 33% C- F F A+ C C A+ D A+
0.74 50% 20% 23% -15 -2 0.67 27% 0.6 .16 18% .32 59% .19 1.49 74% 14% 71% +24 +2 1.53 44% 0.9 .40 15% .22 83% .18
Jan
3		 Memphis B- A- F D D+ 22% 12% 66% C+ D+ B B B+ C- A+ B+ A+ F+ D- A+ A+ A 37% 34% 29% A A F F F A- F F F
1.07 67% 0% 30% -7 0 0.88 38% 1.0 .38 21% .59 77% .45 1.16 67% 14% 25% -9 -2 0.80 45% 1.8 .83 23% .60 87% .52
Jan
7		 Wichita St. C C- A+ F A- 22% 45% 33% F B- C- F D B- C+ F+ C- A A+ A+ C A+ 39% 27% 34% B+ A+ A- A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.02 55% 59% 25% +4 -4 1.02 27% 0.7 .19 15% .29 63% .18 0.99 41% 17% 33% -13 -1 0.75 33% 0.7 .22 11% .54 77% .42
Jan
11		 Charlotte C- B- D C- D+ 18% 41% 41% F D- A+ F D- C- A+ A+ A+ D+ F C- F F 31% 21% 49% A- F A A+ A+ C+ F A+ F
1.13 63% 33% 33% -2 -4 0.91 43% 0.6 .26 15% .55 80% .44 1.15 83% 38% 47% +17 -1 1.36 27% 0.6 .17 20% .52 59% .31
Jan
14		 Texas San Antonio A+ B- B A+ A+ 18% 16% 66% D- A+ B- C B- C+ A D+ A- F D+ F C+ F 28% 20% 52% B- D- F C+ F+ D C+ F D
1.44 63% 43% 55% +23 -1 1.45 39% 1.1 .43 15% .36 68% .25 1.19 57% 50% 31% 0 -1 1.00 43% 0.9 .37 15% .25 85% .21
Jan
21		 Temple D+ F C+ A+ C 37% 35% 29% F D+ B- A- B D- F C- F D+ B- C D+ C- 23% 48% 29% A+ B D F F+ F+ B+ F+ B-
1.06 44% 41% 43% 0 -2 0.98 31% 1.2 .38 18% .14 71% .10 1.13 55% 39% 36% 0 -5 0.94 32% 1.2 .38 10% .31 82% .25
Jan
24		 Tulsa B+ B+ A A+ A+ 24% 31% 45% F A A+ D A- F+ C- F D+ F D+ A+ D- B- 38% 21% 42% A B F+ F F C F C+ F
1.22 67% 47% 45% +12 -2 1.22 41% 1.0 .41 20% .26 64% .17 1.31 61% 20% 40% +1 0 1.04 38% 1.8 .68 15% .50 79% .39
Jan
28		 East Carolina B+ A C A A 21% 28% 51% F+ B+ B- C+ B- D+ A+ F A D+ F+ A+ A+ C+ 43% 24% 33% D+ C+ C+ F+ D+ F+ F F F
1.18 70% 38% 42% +9 -2 1.15 34% 1.2 .40 19% .44 60% .26 1.10 65% 23% 22% -6 0 0.89 31% 1.2 .37 13% .43 88% .38
Jan
30		 Charlotte C+ F+ D F F 8% 38% 54% F F A+ A- A+ D+ A C A- F D+ F F F 28% 33% 38% A+ F D- A B- C- F D F
1.15 50% 33% 23% -11 -4 0.71 54% 1.3 .71 16% .41 71% .29 1.31 64% 46% 53% +15 -2 1.28 38% 0.7 .28 18% .64 75% .48
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 North Texas C+ A+ F D D+ 13% 37% 50% F F+ A+ D+ A F A C- B+ C- F C+ A+ D 31% 41% 28% A+ C+ D+ A B F+ D B C-
1.07 71% 25% 30% -6 -4 0.81 51% 1.0 .49 27% .44 69% .31 1.03 79% 32% 18% -3 -3 0.90 37% 0.8 .29 14% .39 67% .26
Feb
8		 UAB D+ C C+ F D- 22% 30% 48% F F+ A D- B- C F+ F F B- D+ A+ B- C+ 37% 25% 38% B- C+ D+ C C- D+ D A C
0.98 58% 38% 27% -5 -2 0.87 37% 0.8 .28 17% .18 50% .09 1.07 63% 23% 30% -4 -1 0.92 34% 1.0 .34 11% .35 62% .22
Feb
11		 Florida Atlantic B A+ C+ D- B+ 31% 22% 47% D- B D B+ C- A+ C+ F D C+ C+ C+ A+ A- 26% 44% 30% A+ A+ D B C D- F C- F
1.16 78% 38% 30% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.1 .24 7% .31 60% .19 1.05 57% 42% 19% -5 -4 0.83 36% 1.0 .36 14% .42 72% .30
Feb
14		 East Carolina C A+ D- F D 15% 40% 45% F F+ A D- B- A- C+ A+ B+ F D+ F F F 24% 45% 31% A+ F C F F F F D+ F
1.13 88% 32% 28% -2 -4 0.89 40% 1.0 .40 14% .28 88% .24 1.28 58% 50% 47% +11 -4 1.16 32% 1.6 .50 12% .44 73% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 0.1 1.1 6th
7th 0.4 1.6 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 3.5 0.7 4.2 8th
9th 0.8 7.6 0.1 8.4 9th
10th 0.1 10.7 4.2 15.1 10th
11th 3.6 30.4 23.9 0.5 58.3 11th
12th 3.2 6.5 0.7 10.4 12th
13th 13th
Total 6.8 37.0 36.0 16.2 3.7 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.4% 0.4
9-9 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 3.7
8-10 16.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 16.1
7-11 36.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 36.0
6-12 37.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 37.0
5-13 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%