Rice
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#168
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#110
Pace65.3#284
Improvement-1.9#303

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#223
First Shot-2.6#255
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#142
Layup/Dunks-6.7#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#218
Freethrows+3.9#22
Improvement-1.4#282

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#127
First Shot-0.3#181
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#67
Layups/Dunks+2.1#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#144
Freethrows-2.9#330
Improvement-0.6#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.6% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 74.4% 87.4% 68.3%
.500 or above in Conference 38.7% 46.4% 35.1%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.3% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 7.0% 10.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.1% 1.6% 0.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Away) - 31.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 12
Quad 412 - 218 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 253   Florida International W 77-70 76%     1 - 0 -1.0 -3.3 +1.8
  Nov 09, 2024 61   Florida St. L 65-73 18%     1 - 1 +1.3 -3.1 +4.5
  Nov 12, 2024 332   Louisiana Monroe W 66-50 87%     2 - 1 +3.2 -7.9 +12.1
  Nov 16, 2024 297   Northwestern St. W 77-75 OT 81%     3 - 1 -8.1 -1.4 -6.8
  Nov 19, 2024 262   @ Louisiana W 83-61 58%     4 - 1 +19.2 +13.3 +7.8
  Nov 22, 2024 351   @ Houston Christian W 61-58 80%     5 - 1 -6.6 -10.3 +4.0
  Nov 29, 2024 156   Hofstra L 63-68 OT 46%     5 - 2 -4.7 -10.9 +6.4
  Nov 30, 2024 130   Arkansas St. W 75-67 41%     6 - 2 +9.6 +5.2 +4.5
  Dec 01, 2024 274   Iona W 70-66 70%     7 - 2 -2.2 -2.8 +0.6
  Dec 08, 2024 138   @ Texas St. L 64-69 32%    
  Dec 16, 2024 352   Alcorn St. W 74-59 92%    
  Dec 22, 2024 357   Prairie View W 84-67 94%    
  Jan 01, 2025 225   @ Tulsa L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 205   Charlotte W 67-63 66%    
  Jan 08, 2025 77   @ North Texas L 54-65 16%    
  Jan 11, 2025 118   Temple L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 14, 2025 249   Texas San Antonio W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 19, 2025 92   @ Florida Atlantic L 70-79 19%    
  Jan 25, 2025 220   Tulane W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 28, 2025 148   @ South Florida L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 02, 2025 32   Memphis L 68-79 17%    
  Feb 05, 2025 159   @ East Carolina L 63-67 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 205   @ Charlotte L 64-66 44%    
  Feb 11, 2025 77   North Texas L 57-62 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 220   @ Tulane L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 124   UAB W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 225   Tulsa W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 26, 2025 32   @ Memphis L 65-82 7%    
  Mar 02, 2025 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 06, 2025 94   Wichita St. L 67-70 39%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 4.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.3 4.1 0.6 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.4 5.5 1.2 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.2 3.0 5.8 1.8 0.1 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 2.2 5.3 2.6 0.2 10.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 4.1 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 2.9 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.9 9.3 12.3 14.3 14.8 13.1 10.4 7.3 4.4 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 96.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 79.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 33.6% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
13-5 9.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 7.7% 7.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 8.8% 8.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.9% 8.9% 8.9% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-5 2.3% 6.9% 6.9% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1
12-6 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.2
11-7 7.3% 2.8% 2.8% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.1
10-8 10.4% 1.9% 1.9% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.2
9-9 13.1% 0.9% 0.9% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.0
8-10 14.8% 0.8% 0.8% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7
7-11 14.3% 0.2% 0.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3
6-12 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 12.2
5-13 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 9.3
4-14 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.9
3-15 3.0% 3.0
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.9 0.0%