Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +7.5 77
Expected Predictive Rating +8.2 75
Pace 69.3 159
Improvement -2.7 288

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 44 B B+ B- B+ A-
Defense C 173 C C+ C- B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 69 C 58% 183 +2.3 94
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 352 C+ 40% 117 -4.2 349
Three Pointers 48% 42 B+ 39% 23 +7.0 19
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.7 14 B- +3.1 81
1st FG Attempt B 1.12 47
Second Chance C+ 31.6% 148 A 1.27 4 B+ 0.40 35
Turnovers B- 15.2% 77
Freethrows B- 0.33 95 A 80% 4 B+ 0.26 35
Total Offense B+ +7.6 44

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 267 C+ 10.2% 132
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 285 B+ 1.9% 16
Three Pointers C+ 86% 153 C+ 0.7% 125
Total C+ 58% 123 B- 4.9% 97

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 191 C- 59% 208 +0.3 193
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 193 B+ 33% 34 -1.2 99
Three Pointers 42% 157 C 34% 199 +0.5 210
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 174 C -0.3 176
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 169
Second Chance B 26.1% 43 D+ 1.11 295 C+ 0.29 117
Turnovers C- 15.7% 247
Freethrows B- 0.27 69 C- 73% 208 B- 0.20 81
Total Defense C +0.0 173

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 52% 250 D+ 8.2% 294
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 169 D- 1.1% 353
Three Pointers A- 75% 15 C 0.8% 166
Total C 55% 170 D 3.7% 320

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.4 85 18.0 284
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 122 0.13 62
Improvement -2.3 #301 -0.4 #215

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 92 75 59
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 13 - 5
Conference Finish 3 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25% 25% 19%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1% 1% 0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 11.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 9% 9% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round25% 25% 19%
Second Round4% 4% 2%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Home) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 33 - 5
Quad 310 - 313 - 7
Quad 411 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 113 Rhode Island W 82 - 65 66% +9  93% 1 - 0 A +20 A+ +16 B A+ C B+ +6 B D A
 Wed, Nov 12 338 @Oral Roberts W 88 - 87 93% -2  21% 2 - 0 D+ -8 B- +5 D+ B- D+ F -13 F D F
 Mon, Nov 17 92 @Kansas St. L 83 - 84 44% -3  15% 2 - 1 B- +8 B +6 C- C- A+ B- +2 A F D-
 Fri, Nov 21 154 Austin Peay W 84 - 75 84% -2  27% 3 - 1 B- +6 A- +11 A D+ B D+ -4 D- B- D-
 Tue, Nov 25 221 San Jose St. W 81 - 51 85% +13  92% 4 - 1 A+ +27 A +14 A- A+ A- A+ +17 A+ B- A-
 Wed, Nov 26 90 Northern Iowa W 63 - 60 55% +3  72% 5 - 1 B +9 C+ +2 B D+ B- A- +8 A C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 202 Missouri St. W 98 - 74 88% +14  95% 6 - 1 A +19 A+ +24 A+ C+ A+ D+ -4 F A B+
 Wed, Dec 10 328 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 117 - 84 97% +16  91% 7 - 1 A +19 A+ +23 A+ A+ B D- -7 F D- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 157 New Mexico St. W 83 - 70 76% +13  98% 8 - 1 B+ +13 B +6 A+ A+ F A- +7 A- B+ C+
 Fri, Dec 19 168 @Western Kentucky W 82 - 81 69% -3  11% 9 - 1 C+ +3 B+ +8 B D A D -5 D D+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 236 Denver W 90 - 85 91% +4  91% 10 - 1 C- -2 D+ -3 F+ B B- C +0 B F A
 Wed, Dec 31 233 Rice W 97 - 48 90% +16  99% 11 - 1 1 - 0 A+ +42 A+ +24 A+ B C+ A+ +22 A+ A+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 138 @North Texas L 67 - 72 62% +0  40% 11 - 2 1 - 1 C -1 B +7 D+ A+ B- F+ -8 D D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 57 South Florida L 78 - 93 54% -8  11% 11 - 3 1 - 2 D -9 C +1 C F B- F+ -9 F C C-
 Wed, Jan 14 178 @Charlotte W 86 - 74 71% +8  94% 12 - 3 2 - 2 B+ +14 A +13 A+ D D+ C+ +2 C- A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 123 @UAB W 99 - 77 57% +10  97% 13 - 3 3 - 2 A+ +28 A+ +25 A+ B- B+ B- +2 C A F
 Wed, Jan 21 103 Memphis W 83 - 66 71% +3  72% 14 - 3 4 - 2 A +19 A+ +17 C- A+ A+ B- +3 A- C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 233 @Rice W 87 - 81 79% +13  98% 15 - 3 5 - 2 B- +5 A +14 C A+ C+ F+ -8 F D- B
 Wed, Jan 28 138 North Texas W 82 - 66 81% +4  85% 16 - 3 6 - 2 B+ +14 A- +10 B A A B +5 C+ A C-
 Sun, Feb 1 97 Wichita St. W 93 - 83 69% +6  76% 17 - 3 7 - 2 B+ +12 A+ +17 A+ A+ B- D -5 A- D- F+
 Wed, Feb 4 118 @Florida Atlantic W 78 - 76 56% -1  38% 18 - 3 8 - 2 B- +8 B- +5 C+ D+ A+ B- +3 A- D F+
 Sun, Feb 8 57 @South Florida L 74 - 80 32% -6  0% 18 - 4 8 - 3 B- +6 B +6 D+ A+ D+ C+ +1 C- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 123 UAB L 63 - 68 77% -4  14% 18 - 5 8 - 4 D+ -5 F+ -8 C- C F B- +3 B+ B- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 97 @Wichita St. L 77 - 81 47% +3  84% 18 - 6 8 - 5 C+ +4 B+ +9 C C- A- D+ -5 D B+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 178 Charlotte W 79 - 74 86% +6  88% 19 - 6 9 - 5 C +1 B- +4 B- C D C- -3 F+ B- C-
 Sun, Feb 22 335 Texas San Antonio W 90 - 68 98%
 Wed, Feb 25 163 @Tulane W 79 - 74 67%
 Thu, Mar 5 242 @East Carolina W 83 - 74 80%
 Sun, Mar 8 152 Temple W 82 - 72 83%
Totals 22 - 7 12 - 6 +8 B+ +8 C+ B- A- C +0 B+ A B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ C C+ B+ B- 43% 17% 48% A- B C+ A B+ B- B- A B+ C C- B+ C C 38% 20% 42% C C B D+ C+ C- B- C- B-
1.19 58% 40% 39% +3 +2 1.12 32% 1.3 .40 15% .33 80% .26 1.09 59% 33% 34% 0 0 1.02 26% 1.1 .29 16% .27 73% .24
Nov
7		 Rhode Island A+ C+ F A+ B 47% 16% 38% B- B A+ A+ A+ C A+ F B+ B+ C- A+ B- B 43% 19% 38% C+ B C F D A D+ F+ D-
1.26 57% 14% 47% +3 +1 1.11 45% 1.6 .72 21% .47 63% .29 1.00 61% 25% 31% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.1 .36 25% .39 79% .30
Nov
12		 Oral Roberts B- D F B- D 51% 9% 40% B D+ C+ B B- D+ A+ A- A+ F F A+ F F 31% 13% 56% C F A F D F D+ A C
1.21 50% 25% 37% -3 +2 1.00 34% 1.3 .43 16% .59 78% .46 1.20 76% 0% 42% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.7 .31 14% .32 65% .21
Nov
17		 Kansas St. B C- A+ F D 44% 5% 51% A+ C- C D C- A+ A+ C+ A+ B- D- A A+ A 43% 21% 36% B- A C F F D- D- F F
1.10 54% 100% 21% -8 +2 0.91 33% 1.1 .36 12% .44 72% .32 1.11 68% 25% 24% -4 0 0.95 33% 1.4 .47 13% .32 90% .29
Nov
21		 Austin Peay A- B D A+ A 35% 6% 59% B+ A D C D+ B D+ A+ A- D+ B D- F D- 49% 17% 34% D- D- B- C+ B- D- B- B+ B
1.23 67% 33% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 0.8 .20 16% .28 94% .26 1.10 50% 44% 44% +2 +1 1.09 25% 1.1 .28 13% .27 69% .19
Nov
25		 San Jose St. A D F A+ B+ 48% 6% 46% A A- D A+ A+ A- F B+ F A+ A+ A- C A+ 29% 35% 35% B A+ C B+ B- A- A B A
1.32 57% 0% 50% +8 +3 1.23 31% 1.9 .58 15% .19 80% .15 0.83 29% 29% 35% -11 -3 0.75 33% 0.9 .30 20% .20 70% .14
Nov
26		 Northern Iowa C+ B- D C B 33% 13% 54% C+ B F A+ D+ B- C+ A+ A A- C- A+ A+ A+ 41% 20% 39% B- A C+ F+ C- C B+ C B+
1.00 60% 33% 32% -2 +1 1.00 13% 1.3 .17 16% .28 93% .26 0.95 62% 20% 25% -7 0 0.88 19% 1.3 .25 14% .19 70% .13
Dec
6		 Missouri St. A+ D F A+ A 40% 2% 58% A+ A+ A+ F C+ A+ A+ A- A+ D+ C- A F F 31% 18% 51% D- F A+ C- A B+ C- A B-
1.46 58% 0% 50% +13 +2 1.33 47% 0.8 .36 10% .50 80% .40 1.10 64% 25% 48% +10 0 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 21% .36 58% .21
Dec
10		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A+ B- D A+ A+ 49% 5% 45% A A+ C+ A+ A+ B A+ A A+ D- F B- A- F 39% 17% 44% F+ F C+ F D- C+ D+ F F+
1.51 63% 33% 48% +12 +3 1.31 37% 1.8 .67 13% .55 84% .46 1.09 81% 33% 29% +5 +1 1.13 24% 1.3 .31 19% .34 86% .29
Dec
13		 New Mexico St. B C C- A+ A+ 29% 7% 63% A- A+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ A- A A C+ A 43% 22% 35% F+ A- A+ F+ B+ C+ F B F
1.19 58% 33% 42% +8 +1 1.20 32% 1.6 .52 23% .65 83% .54 1.00 45% 27% 33% -8 0 0.86 21% 1.1 .24 16% .44 69% .31
Dec
19		 Western Kentucky B+ B+ A+ C- B- 29% 8% 63% A- B F A+ D A A+ C+ A+ D A A+ F D 38% 13% 48% D D A- F D+ D- F+ D- F
1.16 64% 75% 33% +4 +1 1.13 17% 1.2 .20 13% .52 72% .37 1.14 40% 14% 44% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.3 .35 11% .38 79% .30
Dec
22		 Denver D+ D- A+ F F 67% 2% 31% A+ F+ A- C- B B- B B+ B+ C D- B- A+ B+ 35% 30% 35% C B F F F A F D F
1.17 54% 100% 22% -7 +4 0.97 41% 1.1 .45 12% .35 75% .27 1.11 63% 38% 26% -2 -1 0.94 39% 1.4 .55 20% .42 81% .34
Dec
31		 Rice A+ A F A+ A+ 53% 14% 33% A+ A+ A D B C+ F A+ F A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 31% 45% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ A+ B-
1.49 74% 14% 71% +24 +2 1.53 44% 0.9 .40 15% .22 83% .18 0.74 50% 20% 23% -15 -2 0.67 27% 0.6 .16 18% .32 59% .19
Jan
4		 North Texas B F B+ D- D- 51% 16% 33% A- D+ C A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F+ D+ A F F+ 44% 27% 29% A- D B+ F D- F C+ F C-
1.08 45% 43% 29% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.6 .50 21% .51 84% .43 1.16 60% 25% 38% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.4 .42 13% .33 78% .26
Jan
10		 South Florida C D A+ F C- 37% 12% 51% A- C F D- F B- A+ A+ A+ F+ D A+ F+ F 29% 2% 70% B- F B- D- C C- A- B+ A
1.06 50% 80% 27% -3 +1 0.98 18% 0.8 .15 18% .65 79% .51 1.27 63% 0% 38% +5 +2 1.16 36% 1.3 .46 15% .31 68% .21
Jan
14		 Charlotte A D+ A+ A+ A 56% 8% 35% A+ A+ A F D D+ A- A+ A+ C+ C F C C- 46% 14% 40% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ F B F C-
1.29 56% 50% 53% +10 +3 1.27 39% 0.7 .29 16% .39 82% .32 1.11 61% 57% 35% +5 +1 1.14 17% 0.4 .07 12% .29 88% .26
Jan
18		 UAB A+ A A+ A+ A+ 49% 10% 41% A A+ D+ A+ B- B+ F A+ D B- D- B+ D+ D 38% 41% 21% A+ C A+ B+ A F C- D+ D+
1.38 72% 67% 46% +17 +2 1.41 24% 1.2 .28 14% .16 90% .15 1.08 67% 30% 33% 0 -3 0.96 23% 0.9 .20 7% .33 73% .24
Jan
21		 Memphis A+ F D- B+ D+ 40% 16% 44% B C- A A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C A+ A A 37% 18% 45% D+ A- C B- C+ A- B- C+ B-
1.26 41% 29% 37% -6 +1 0.91 42% 1.1 .47 12% .62 86% .54 1.00 58% 22% 26% -8 0 0.86 38% 1.1 .40 23% .28 71% .20
Jan
24		 Rice A C F A- C- 38% 21% 42% B+ C B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ F+ F+ F F F 24% 31% 45% C+ F D- D+ D- B B B+ B
1.31 61% 20% 40% +1 0 1.04 38% 1.8 .68 15% .50 79% .39 1.22 67% 47% 45% +12 -2 1.22 41% 1.0 .41 20% .26 64% .17
Jan
28		 North Texas A- C- D+ C C+ 56% 6% 38% A+ B C- A+ A A C A+ A- B A- F A+ B 56% 12% 33% F C+ B A+ A C- D+ A- C+
1.16 56% 33% 33% -2 +3 1.04 31% 1.6 .48 18% .36 86% .31 0.93 48% 50% 24% -9 +2 0.88 30% 0.7 .21 17% .37 64% .24
Feb
1		 Wichita St. A+ A+ B B+ A+ 42% 19% 40% A- A+ B A+ A+ B- A+ C+ A+ D A+ D+ C A 47% 24% 29% C A- A F D- F+ F B+ F
1.28 75% 44% 37% +10 0 1.23 33% 2.1 .71 15% .44 70% .31 1.14 38% 42% 33% -9 0 0.84 30% 1.5 .47 11% .50 63% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Florida Atlantic B- B F C- C+ 42% 15% 44% C+ C+ F+ B+ D+ A+ C B- C B- D- A+ A+ A 36% 17% 47% C A- D+ D D F+ B+ A+ A
1.08 61% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.02 19% 1.1 .22 11% .30 74% .22 1.05 67% 30% 22% -6 0 0.90 35% 1.2 .43 14% .24 60% .14
Feb
8		 South Florida B F F C+ D+ 22% 14% 63% C+ D+ A A+ A+ D+ C+ F C- C+ D- F A C- 43% 6% 51% C C- A A+ A+ F F D+ F
1.08 36% 29% 35% -5 0 0.92 40% 1.4 .55 20% .33 61% .20 1.17 64% 67% 27% -1 +2 1.04 31% 0.5 .15 10% .49 77% .37
Feb
11		 UAB F+ B- C- F D+ 43% 12% 45% A- C- C C C F F+ F F B- A+ A+ F+ A- 50% 20% 30% D- B+ B+ D+ B- D- A C+ A
0.94 64% 33% 26% -3 +1 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 21% .17 67% .11 1.02 44% 18% 38% -9 +1 0.85 27% 1.1 .30 9% .21 69% .15
Feb
14		 Wichita St. B+ C- A D C+ 20% 25% 55% D+ C D+ B- C- A- B A+ A- D+ F F A+ D- 43% 31% 25% B+ D B- A- B+ F F B F+
1.13 55% 50% 30% -1 -2 0.96 24% 1.0 .24 13% .32 79% .25 1.18 68% 56% 15% +3 -1 1.06 36% 0.9 .31 9% .43 63% .27
Feb
18		 Charlotte B- F+ F A B- 24% 6% 69% B B- C B- C D C C+ C+ C- F A- F F 33% 14% 53% B- F+ A+ F B- C- A+ F A+
1.20 50% 0% 41% +3 +1 1.10 29% 1.2 .35 17% .33 72% .24 1.13 75% 29% 42% +11 0 1.24 23% 1.2 .27 18% .15 88% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 8.0 8.7 1st
2nd 0.0 3.0 31.8 36.7 71.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 7.7 8.3 16.2 3rd
4th 0.6 2.1 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.6 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 1.6 13.0 40.8 44.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 17.9% 8.0    0.9 5.7 1.4
12-6 1.8% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 0.9 5.9 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 44.6% 28.6% 27.8% 0.7% 11.4 0.1 7.6 5.0 0.0 31.9 1.0%
12-6 40.8% 23.7% 23.4% 0.3% 11.7 3.1 6.3 0.2 31.1 0.4%
11-7 13.0% 17.4% 17.4% 11.9 0.4 1.7 0.2 10.7
10-8 1.6% 11.6% 11.6% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.9% 24.4% 0.4% 11.6 75.1 0.6%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.4% 100.0% 11.4 0.6 59.0 40.0 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.3% 1.9% 11.1 1.8 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.6% 0.7% 11.3 0.5 0.2