Tulsa
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#225
Expected Predictive Rating-7.6#288
Pace72.1#91
Improvement-0.8#230

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#249
First Shot-2.4#242
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#212
Layup/Dunks-1.5#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#170
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#197
Freethrows-0.2#191
Improvement-3.3#359

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#192
First Shot+1.6#127
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#320
Layups/Dunks+0.5#156
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#60
Freethrows+0.6#151
Improvement+2.5#24
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 11.6% 15.6% 4.9%
.500 or above in Conference 18.8% 21.9% 13.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 22.8% 19.9% 27.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 62.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 33 - 84 - 15
Quad 48 - 411 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 103-80 93%     1 - 0 +2.6 +9.8 -8.9
  Nov 13, 2024 261   Oral Roberts W 85-76 69%     2 - 0 +0.4 +6.5 -6.0
  Nov 16, 2024 165   @ Missouri St. L 106-111 3OT 28%     2 - 1 -2.6 +1.8 -2.7
  Nov 20, 2024 233   Arkansas Little Rock L 57-71 63%     2 - 2 -20.9 -10.7 -11.7
  Nov 23, 2024 86   @ Loyola Chicago L 53-89 12%     2 - 3 -26.7 -15.7 -9.9
  Nov 26, 2024 298   Detroit Mercy W 63-44 64%     3 - 3 +11.8 -7.4 +21.0
  Nov 27, 2024 230   Georgia St. L 71-74 51%     3 - 4 -6.8 -4.2 -2.6
  Dec 04, 2024 81   Oklahoma St. L 55-76 25%     3 - 5 -17.4 -18.1 +1.7
  Dec 07, 2024 234   Southern W 72-69 63%    
  Dec 14, 2024 83   Central Florida L 69-79 17%    
  Dec 21, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 77-56 98%    
  Jan 01, 2025 168   Rice W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 124   @ UAB L 73-82 21%    
  Jan 07, 2025 249   @ Texas San Antonio L 77-79 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 205   Charlotte W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 148   @ South Florida L 70-77 26%    
  Jan 21, 2025 159   East Carolina L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 26, 2025 94   Wichita St. L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 29, 2025 124   UAB L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 02, 2025 220   @ Tulane L 71-74 38%    
  Feb 05, 2025 32   @ Memphis L 68-87 4%    
  Feb 08, 2025 92   Florida Atlantic L 76-82 28%    
  Feb 12, 2025 118   @ Temple L 70-79 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 249   Texas San Antonio W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 19, 2025 77   @ North Texas L 56-70 11%    
  Feb 22, 2025 168   @ Rice L 66-72 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 220   Tulane W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 118   Temple L 73-76 38%    
  Mar 09, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. L 67-79 14%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.9 3.9 0.6 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.4 5.8 1.6 0.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.4 2.7 0.1 12.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.4 3.9 0.4 13.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.2 4.0 0.7 0.0 14.7 12th
13th 0.4 1.8 3.8 4.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 14.0 13th
Total 0.4 1.8 4.4 8.3 12.0 14.3 15.0 13.9 11.2 8.4 4.9 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 36.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 28.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 2.4% 2.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 11.1% 11.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.7% 5.6% 5.6% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-6 1.5% 2.9% 2.9% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
11-7 3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
10-8 4.9% 1.1% 1.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
9-9 8.4% 0.6% 0.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3
8-10 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1
7-11 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 13.9
6-12 15.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.0
5-13 14.3% 14.3
4-14 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.0
3-15 8.3% 8.3
2-16 4.4% 4.4
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%