Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#231
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#176
Pace68.4#210
Improvement+1.5#58

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#226
First Shot+1.4#136
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#336
Layup/Dunks+3.8#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#243
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement+0.3#140

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#234
First Shot-1.0#210
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#230
Layups/Dunks-6.9#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#139
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#38
Freethrows+0.5#161
Improvement+1.3#66
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 5.2% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 54.9% 58.1% 30.9%
.500 or above in Conference 47.9% 49.7% 34.4%
Conference Champion 5.7% 6.1% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 11.5% 10.5% 18.9%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.8%
First Round4.5% 4.9% 1.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 63 - 9
Quad 412 - 515 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 30   @ Illinois L 53-92 5%     0 - 1 -23.7 -17.9 -2.6
  Nov 19, 2021 304   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 72-60 56%     1 - 1 +7.0 +1.0 +7.0
  Nov 26, 2021 133   Morehead St. L 51-75 40%     1 - 2 -24.7 -19.7 -6.2
  Nov 28, 2021 215   UMKC W 66-55 57%     2 - 2 +5.7 -1.8 +8.9
  Dec 04, 2021 340   Central Arkansas W 80-67 88%    
  Dec 08, 2021 357   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 76-63 89%    
  Dec 11, 2021 358   @ Mississippi Valley W 83-65 95%    
  Dec 14, 2021 18   @ Texas Tech L 58-79 3%    
  Dec 19, 2021 258   Air Force W 66-61 67%    
  Dec 30, 2021 140   Georgia St. L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 01, 2022 180   Georgia Southern W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 06, 2022 183   @ Louisiana L 71-76 32%    
  Jan 08, 2022 260   @ Louisiana Monroe L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 13, 2022 288   Arkansas Little Rock W 74-67 72%    
  Jan 15, 2022 288   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 20, 2022 237   Texas Arlington W 70-67 62%    
  Jan 22, 2022 152   Texas St. L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 27, 2022 172   @ Appalachian St. L 62-68 29%    
  Jan 29, 2022 227   @ Coastal Carolina L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 03, 2022 260   Louisiana Monroe W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 05, 2022 183   Louisiana W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 10, 2022 242   @ Troy L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 12, 2022 157   @ South Alabama L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 17, 2022 152   @ Texas St. L 62-69 27%    
  Feb 19, 2022 237   @ Texas Arlington L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 23, 2022 227   Coastal Carolina W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 25, 2022 172   Appalachian St. L 65-66 49%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.0 2.6 0.9 0.1 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.3 0.8 0.1 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.6 1.2 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 4.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.1 3.0 0.2 9.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 4.2 3.6 0.5 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.2 4.4 1.0 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 3.1 4.2 1.5 0.1 9.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 2.6 3.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.9 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.3 5.1 7.9 10.0 11.7 12.2 11.7 11.6 8.8 6.6 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 95.4% 0.6    0.6 0.0
15-3 87.3% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 67.3% 1.8    1.0 0.6 0.1
13-5 29.6% 1.3    0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.7% 26.2% 26.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 1.3% 30.2% 30.2% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.6% 22.1% 22.1% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.1
13-5 4.4% 17.8% 17.8% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.6
12-6 6.6% 10.9% 10.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 5.9
11-7 8.8% 7.6% 7.6% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 8.1
10-8 11.6% 5.9% 5.9% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 10.9
9-9 11.7% 2.9% 2.9% 15.7 0.1 0.3 11.4
8-10 12.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.0
7-11 11.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.6
6-12 10.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.9
5-13 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.9
4-14 5.1% 5.1
3-15 3.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.3
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 1.7 95.2 0.0%