Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.1 140
Expected Predictive Rating +0.1 157
Pace 77.2 18
Improvement +1.5 129

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 142 C- B D- B- B-
Defense C 164 C B- D+ C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 177 C 59% 148 +0.4 164
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 281 C- 36% 251 -2.3 292
Three Pointers 46% 75 D+ 32% 267 +1.1 142
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.7 98 C- -1.4 225
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 199
Second Chance A- 37.9% 18 C- 1.00 215 B 0.38 56
Turnovers D- 20.1% 339
Freethrows B- 0.33 114 C+ 74% 132 B- 0.24 104
Total Offense C +0.9 142

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 203 C+ 10.4% 145
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 231 F 9.7% 351
Three Pointers B+ 92% 28 B+ 0.2% 36
Total B- 59% 100 C 5.6% 194

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 255 C- 60% 243 -0.5 159
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 128 C 38% 184 +0.5 228
Three Pointers 42% 148 C+ 33% 147 +0.1 187
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 111 C +0.4 195
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 181
Second Chance B 27.1% 68 C 1.03 191 B- 0.28 83
Turnovers D+ 15.0% 294
Freethrows C- 0.33 250 C 72% 171 C- 0.24 243
Total Defense C +0.2 164

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 296 D 7.0% 326
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 199 C- 4.1% 217
Three Pointers C 84% 167 D+ 0.4% 280
Total C- 58% 235 D 3.6% 325

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.1 17 17.5 232
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 118 0.17 192
Improvement -0.5 #214 +2.0 #74

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 166 141 121
Conference Record 9 - 9 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 7 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 16% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 97%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round15% 16% 9%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Away) - 87.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 38 - 38 - 7
Quad 411 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 208 @Ohio W 89 - 85 54% -2  24% 1 - 0 C+ +4 B +7 C A+ F C- -3 F+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 98 @Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 90 25% -16  0% 1 - 1 F+ -17 F+ -8 F C- D D- -7 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 202 @Missouri St. W 86 - 85 52% -7  15% 2 - 1 C +2 C +0 D- A- D- C+ +1 D+ A- D
 Wed, Nov 19 41 @St. Mary's L 72 - 85 9% -7  4% 2 - 2 C+ +3 B +7 C A- C+ D+ -4 D+ D B
 Fri, Nov 21 32 @SMU L 69 - 100 7% -15  6% 2 - 3 D- -13 F -10 D A+ F C+ +1 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 200 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 63 73% +7  86% 3 - 3 B- +6 D -6 D+ D- F A+ +11 A A B+
 Fri, Nov 28 132 North Dakota St. W 85 - 80 OT 59% -1  43% 4 - 3 C+ +4 C- -1 D- B- A B +5 C+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 176 Texas Arlington W 83 - 63 69% +10  78% 5 - 3 A- +16 B +6 B+ D+ D A +10 A+ D- F+
 Sat, Dec 6 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90 - 78 72% +8  97% 6 - 3 B- +7 A- +10 C+ A- B- D+ -3 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 233 @Rice L 76 - 77 58% +7  97% 6 - 4 C- -2 C- -1 B- D C C -1 C- B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 225 @Texas St. W 89 - 70 56% +8  91% 7 - 4 1 - 0 A +18 A +11 A A+ F B+ +6 B+ C+ F+
 Sat, Dec 20 245 @Southern Miss W 93 - 86 60% +3  60% 8 - 4 2 - 0 B- +6 A+ +17 F+ A+ A F -11 F D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 210 James Madison L 74 - 78 75% +2  65% 8 - 5 2 - 1 D -10 D- -6 D D- B- D+ -3 F A- A-
 Wed, Jan 7 146 Troy W 86 - 74 63% +10  86% 9 - 5 3 - 1 B +10 C+ +3 B- A- F B+ +6 C+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 225 Texas St. W 83 - 82 77% +5  94% 10 - 5 4 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -3 F C F+ C- -3 C- F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 188 @South Alabama L 87 - 91 OT 50% -0  44% 10 - 6 4 - 2 C- -3 C- -0 C- B- F C- -2 C B F
 Sat, Jan 17 146 @Troy L 74 - 99 40% -9  16% 10 - 7 4 - 3 F -21 B- +4 F+ A- A- F -26 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 262 @Georgia Southern W 85 - 68 64% +9  88% 11 - 7 5 - 3 B+ +14 C+ +2 A- F F A+ +12 A+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 24 283 @Georgia St. L 81 - 82 69% +3  64% 11 - 8 5 - 4 D+ -5 B+ +9 B+ C+ F F -14 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 239 Old Dominion L 71 - 75 79% -5  1% 11 - 9 5 - 5 D- -11 F -10 D+ D F C -1 C C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 173 Marshall L 61 - 70 69% -4  11% 11 - 10 5 - 6 D- -13 F -13 F D+ D C -1 B- C B-
 Wed, Feb 4 238 @Coastal Carolina W 70 - 66 59% +0  46% 12 - 10 6 - 6 C+ +3 D+ -3 C D+ F B+ +6 C+ D A+
 Sat, Feb 7 166 Bowling Green W 91 - 54 67% +21  98% 13 - 10 A+ +34 A- +10 A+ A C+ A+ +21 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 11 353 Louisiana Monroe W 103 - 70 95% +15  99% 14 - 10 7 - 6 A- +16 A +13 B A C+ C+ +1 C+ C+ C-
 Sat, Feb 14 188 South Alabama L 88 - 92 OT 72% +5  74% 14 - 11 7 - 7 D -9 C+ +3 C B+ F F -12 B- F F
 Thu, Feb 19 303 @Louisiana W 79 - 62 73% +1  53% 15 - 11 8 - 7 B+ +12 B- +4 B+ B F A- +8 B+ A F
 Sat, Feb 21 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 89 - 77 87%
 Tue, Feb 24 245 Southern Miss W 82 - 73 79%
 Fri, Feb 27 303 Louisiana W 78 - 66 88%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 7 +1 C +1 F C- B- C +0 D+ C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C C- D+ C- 39% 29% 46% B- C- A- C- B D- B- C+ B- C C- C C+ C 36% 22% 42% C+ C B C B- D+ C- C C-
1.10 59% 36% 32% -1 +1 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 20% .33 74% .24 1.08 60% 38% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.0 .28 15% .33 72% .24
Nov
3		 Ohio B F A+ C D+ 42% 4% 54% A C A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C- D+ F C F+ 41% 17% 42% D- F+ A A+ A+ D- C- B- C
1.18 45% 100% 35% -2 +2 1.02 42% 1.6 .68 24% .49 89% .44 1.13 63% 70% 32% +6 +1 1.15 20% 0.6 .11 13% .34 68% .23
Nov
7		 Stephen F. Austin F+ F D- F F 41% 13% 46% B F D B- C- D A+ A- A+ D- A- F A- D+ 27% 29% 44% B C- F F F A+ F A+ C-
0.88 42% 33% 19% -17 +1 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 19% .55 79% .43 1.22 47% 69% 29% +3 -2 1.04 49% 1.4 .67 19% .32 53% .17
Nov
11		 Missouri St. C B A F D+ 19% 43% 38% F D- B- A- A- D- A B+ A+ C+ F D+ B D 31% 31% 38% B- D+ A+ F+ A- D F F F
1.08 70% 48% 25% +1 -4 0.96 36% 1.2 .44 20% .46 79% .36 1.07 75% 38% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 15% .55 73% .40
Nov
19		 St. Mary's B D D+ D- D+ 47% 10% 43% A C A+ D+ A- C+ C- A+ C+ D+ C A+ F D+ 51% 19% 30% D D+ D C- D B F B+ F
1.04 48% 33% 28% -9 +2 0.88 37% 0.9 .33 15% .22 85% .19 1.23 59% 13% 54% +5 +1 1.14 41% 1.2 .47 19% .59 76% .45
Nov
21		 SMU F A- A+ F D- 31% 20% 49% C+ D A+ C+ A+ F A- C- B+ C+ F F D+ F 41% 27% 32% C F+ A- A+ A+ F A- A+ A+
0.86 67% 50% 17% -8 -1 0.86 54% 1.0 .54 40% .33 69% .23 1.25 81% 56% 38% +16 -1 1.33 31% 0.2 .05 10% .22 63% .14
Nov
24		 Jacksonville St. D D+ F C+ D 39% 8% 53% B D+ D- D+ D- F A+ B- A+ A+ B+ F A+ A 38% 16% 46% B A C- A+ A B+ F B- F
1.01 53% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 22% 1.0 .22 22% .51 79% .40 0.86 47% 75% 17% -10 +1 0.84 31% 0.6 .18 20% .50 66% .33
Nov
28		 North Dakota St. C- D- F C+ F+ 37% 10% 53% B+ D- C- A B- A A- A+ A+ B A+ C F C+ 34% 23% 43% C- C+ A A+ A+ C- F A- F
1.08 55% 17% 35% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 14% .33 91% .30 1.02 42% 38% 42% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.7 .18 15% .47 65% .30
Dec
2		 Texas Arlington B A+ C+ F B+ 40% 28% 32% C B+ A F D+ D A+ C A+ A B- A+ A+ A+ 45% 27% 29% B A+ C F+ D- F+ F A+ C-
1.14 76% 40% 24% +3 -1 1.06 39% 0.7 .28 19% .50 72% .36 0.87 50% 23% 7% -19 0 0.63 36% 1.1 .40 17% .43 62% .26
Dec
6		 Arkansas Little Rock A- A+ F C- C 36% 7% 57% B- C+ C+ A A- B- F A+ F+ D+ F C F F 27% 38% 35% B+ F A+ F A+ F D A- C-
1.26 80% 25% 34% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.2 .44 17% .15 100% .15 1.09 73% 33% 53% +12 -3 1.20 9% 1.3 .13 13% .27 59% .16
Dec
13		 Rice C- A+ C+ F B- 37% 33% 31% C- B- C+ F D C C F D C B- A+ F C 35% 25% 40% D- C- A C B+ F F+ B D
1.10 83% 38% 27% +6 -2 1.10 34% 0.8 .26 16% .33 63% .21 1.12 53% 14% 45% -1 -1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 10% .37 65% .24
Dec
17		 Texas St. A B+ F A+ A 46% 13% 41% B- A A+ A+ A+ F B B- B+ B+ A- C+ A- A- 53% 28% 19% D B+ A F C+ F+ C- F+ D+
1.23 67% 0% 53% +11 +1 1.26 44% 1.8 .80 26% .37 75% .28 0.97 47% 38% 27% -8 0 0.86 24% 1.1 .27 15% .29 83% .24
Dec
20		 Southern Miss A+ D F C F 43% 16% 41% B- F+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F F C+ F F 28% 40% 32% A F B- F D+ D- F F F
1.30 52% 13% 35% -6 +1 0.92 43% 1.6 .70 13% .53 82% .43 1.20 71% 35% 44% +7 -3 1.10 28% 1.3 .34 15% .44 93% .41
Jan
3		 James Madison D- A F F D 35% 17% 48% C D A F D- B- A- F C D+ F+ C- F F 45% 23% 32% C+ F B+ A A- A- F A F
1.04 68% 11% 27% -6 0 0.91 39% 0.6 .24 11% .43 59% .25 1.10 67% 36% 47% +10 0 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 21% .46 62% .29
Jan
7		 Troy C+ F A+ A- B 23% 19% 58% D+ B- B+ B A- F A+ B+ A+ B+ F A+ D+ D+ 30% 26% 44% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D C+ A+ B+
1.14 45% 56% 39% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 21% .49 76% .37 0.98 76% 13% 36% 0 -1 1.00 23% 0.7 .15 15% .28 61% .17
Jan
10		 Texas St. D+ B F F F 43% 13% 44% C+ F A+ F C F+ A+ A- A+ C- F A- A+ D+ 44% 35% 20% B- C- A F F B- D+ F D-
1.07 65% 14% 25% -6 +1 0.93 44% 0.6 .28 22% .53 78% .41 1.06 75% 32% 18% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.9 .47 21% .31 84% .26
Jan
15		 South Alabama C- B D D- D+ 25% 5% 69% B- C- B D+ B- F C+ A- B- C- D+ F A+ B- 51% 9% 40% F C A+ F B F F+ D- F
1.06 67% 33% 29% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 23% .24 80% .19 1.11 61% 67% 19% -5 +2 0.97 15% 1.5 .22 6% .39 70% .27
Jan
17		 Troy B- F A- B+ F 45% 12% 43% A- F+ B- A A- A- A+ F C+ F F F D+ F 43% 2% 55% F+ F F F F F D- F F
1.11 32% 50% 38% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.3 .44 13% .38 55% .21 1.48 77% 100% 36% +11 +3 1.29 41% 1.5 .59 10% .35 90% .32
Jan
22		 Georgia Southern C+ D+ A+ A+ A- 47% 8% 45% B A- D F F F B A A- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 6% 51% D- A+ F+ F+ F C+ F A- D
1.14 54% 75% 43% +7 +2 1.22 31% 0.7 .22 23% .40 83% .33 0.91 52% 0% 11% -22 +2 0.62 33% 1.3 .42 16% .42 65% .27
Jan
24		 Georgia St. B+ C A+ C+ B 51% 6% 43% A B+ A- D- C+ F A- A+ A+ F A+ F F F 20% 26% 54% C+ F A+ A+ A+ F F+ F F
1.20 58% 100% 35% +5 +3 1.17 41% 0.8 .34 21% .36 89% .32 1.22 40% 62% 44% +11 -2 1.20 13% 0.5 .07 10% .37 91% .33
Jan
28		 Old Dominion F A- F D+ D+ 32% 19% 49% C- D+ D+ D D F D- F F C C D+ B- C 32% 31% 37% B- C A+ F C+ D- A- F+ B
0.98 71% 10% 31% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .26 21% .30 65% .19 1.04 58% 39% 32% -1 -2 0.97 14% 1.8 .25 12% .22 79% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Marshall F B+ F F F 32% 11% 57% B+ F A- F D+ D A+ F A- C C B F C 27% 38% 35% A B- D B C B- D+ F D-
0.96 67% 20% 19% -12 +1 0.79 42% 0.7 .28 19% .49 64% .31 1.10 62% 33% 41% +3 -3 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 19% .29 80% .23
Feb
4		 Coastal Carolina D+ F F+ A+ C 33% 27% 41% C+ C A F D+ F A C A- B+ B F A- B- 28% 16% 56% F C+ D- D+ D A+ D- A C-
1.00 38% 31% 45% -2 -1 0.96 38% 0.7 .25 20% .37 71% .27 0.94 50% 50% 29% -5 0 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 23% .31 65% .20
Feb
7		 Bowling Green A- A+ F A+ A+ 37% 8% 56% B A+ A+ C+ A C+ C+ F D A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 40% 22% 38% A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ C D-
1.21 74% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.27 41% 1.1 .44 17% .34 57% .19 0.72 59% 25% 10% -16 0 0.69 23% 0.1 .03 23% .38 73% .27
Feb
11		 Louisiana Monroe A B A+ B+ B 47% 5% 48% A- B A+ C- A C+ C F D- C+ A+ B D C 29% 23% 48% B C+ C+ C C+ C- F A+ D
1.39 67% 67% 39% +9 +3 1.26 51% 1.1 .56 15% .25 50% .13 0.95 40% 33% 36% -5 -1 0.90 23% 1.0 .23 16% .42 62% .26
Feb
14		 South Alabama C+ F D B C+ 14% 12% 75% D C A+ F+ B+ F A+ F A+ F A A+ F C 21% 29% 50% A+ B- D- F F F D- F F
1.15 43% 33% 37% +1 -1 1.02 47% 1.0 .44 24% .51 67% .34 1.21 46% 17% 42% -3 -2 0.92 28% 1.5 .41 7% .36 77% .28
Feb
19		 Louisiana B- A A+ F B+ 50% 17% 33% C+ B+ A+ D- B F A+ C- A+ A- A+ F+ A- A- 27% 37% 36% B- B+ C- A+ A F B+ D+ B
1.15 71% 86% 21% +8 +1 1.21 45% 0.9 .41 26% .55 71% .39 0.90 31% 45% 29% -7 -3 0.81 27% 0.4 .12 4% .17 73% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 1st
2nd 4.3 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 19.7 19.8 3rd
4th 2.3 28.4 30.8 4th
5th 0.0 12.4 8.8 21.3 5th
6th 1.4 15.9 17.3 6th
7th 0.0 3.4 1.4 4.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 0.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.4 6.1 32.0 61.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 61.5% 17.6% 17.6% 13.4 0.6 5.5 4.6 0.2 50.7
10-8 32.0% 11.2% 11.2% 14.0 0.0 0.8 2.2 0.6 0.0 28.4
9-9 6.1% 6.7% 6.7% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.7
8-10 0.4% 0.4
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 13.6 85.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.8% 100.0% 13.4 5.3 50.5 42.0 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.8%
Lose Out 0.3%