Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#319
Expected Predictive Rating-20.1#355
Pace74.9#57
Improvement+2.0#38

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#277
First Shot-7.2#340
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#17
Layup/Dunks-4.4#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#259
Freethrows-1.6#278
Improvement+2.5#13

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#319
First Shot-5.7#330
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#140
Layups/Dunks+0.6#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#203
Freethrows-6.4#355
Improvement-0.5#236
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 8.0% 23.0% 6.3%
.500 or above in Conference 26.4% 36.9% 25.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 6.7% 11.6%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 10.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 410 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 341   @ Alabama A&M L 73-82 55%     0 - 1 -19.0 -4.2 -14.6
  Nov 13, 2021 251   Norfolk St. L 59-66 35%     0 - 2 -11.8 -21.8 +10.9
  Nov 21, 2021 233   @ South Dakota L 66-83 21%     0 - 3 -17.4 -10.0 -6.9
  Nov 23, 2021 105   @ Nebraska L 73-79 8%     0 - 4 +1.2 +3.1 -1.8
  Nov 28, 2021 289   Southern L 80-82 54%     0 - 5 -11.9 -0.8 -11.0
  Dec 01, 2021 140   @ Georgia St. L 72-86 10%    
  Dec 04, 2021 355   @ Chicago St. W 78-72 73%    
  Dec 10, 2021 336   IUPUI W 70-64 72%    
  Dec 12, 2021 220   @ Lipscomb L 72-81 19%    
  Dec 16, 2021 348   @ Charleston Southern W 82-79 60%    
  Dec 18, 2021 354   @ South Carolina St. W 81-75 70%    
  Dec 30, 2021 261   Tennessee Tech L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 01, 2022 133   @ Morehead St. L 64-78 10%    
  Jan 06, 2022 345   Tennessee Martin W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 08, 2022 304   Southeast Missouri St. W 79-77 57%    
  Jan 13, 2022 89   @ Murray St. L 62-80 5%    
  Jan 15, 2022 133   Morehead St. L 67-75 23%    
  Jan 20, 2022 304   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 76-80 36%    
  Jan 22, 2022 263   Austin Peay L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 27, 2022 328   @ SIU Edwardsville L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 346   @ Eastern Illinois W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 03, 2022 66   Belmont L 72-85 12%    
  Feb 05, 2022 345   @ Tennessee Martin W 77-75 55%    
  Feb 10, 2022 89   Murray St. L 65-77 14%    
  Feb 12, 2022 263   @ Austin Peay L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 17, 2022 328   SIU Edwardsville W 76-72 66%    
  Feb 19, 2022 346   Eastern Illinois W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 24, 2022 261   @ Tennessee Tech L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 26, 2022 66   @ Belmont L 69-88 5%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.9 4.3 2.7 1.0 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.7 5.8 2.6 0.5 0.1 16.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 7.4 6.3 2.0 0.1 18.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.9 8.2 5.3 1.3 0.1 18.0 7th
8th 0.5 3.3 6.3 4.3 0.6 0.0 14.9 8th
9th 0.5 2.9 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.9 10th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.5 8.8 11.6 15.3 15.1 14.2 10.8 7.5 4.3 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 60.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 12.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 2.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.5
11-7 4.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.3
10-8 7.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.4
9-9 10.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.8
8-10 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
7-11 15.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.1
6-12 15.3% 15.3
5-13 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.6
4-14 8.8% 8.8
3-15 5.5% 5.5
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%