Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.6 247
Expected Predictive Rating -2.3 205
Pace 74.9 32
Improvement +0.8 158

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 178 D C C+ C- D-
Defense D+ 291 D- D+ B- F+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 171 C 58% 178 +0.1 175
2 Pt. Jumpers 64% 7 D+ 35% 281 +3.1 46
Three Pointers 30% 353 D- 30% 331 -7.6 356
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.3 331 D+ -3.0 291
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 312
Second Chance C+ 31.4% 160 C 1.03 171 C 0.32 143
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 147
Freethrows D+ 0.28 260 B- 75% 105 C- 0.21 216
Total Offense C -0.7 178

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 209 C+ 9.9% 117
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 281 A- 1.5% 12
Three Pointers F+ 75% 342 C- 1.2% 266
Total F+ 45% 348 B- 4.7% 82

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 22 D+ 61% 256 +5.1 334
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 351 F 47% 359 -1.2 97
Three Pointers 41% 186 D- 38% 326 +2.1 282
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 358 D- +4.4 334
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 346
Second Chance C- 31.9% 238 C- 1.07 253 D+ 0.34 260
Turnovers B- 18.7% 71
Freethrows F+ 0.38 340 D+ 74% 288 F+ 0.28 350
Total Defense D+ -3.9 291

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 175 C- 9.2% 238
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 30% 280 C- 4.3% 200
Three Pointers C 84% 160 B- 1.4% 70
Total C- 57% 211 C 5.4% 196

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 102 16.5 45
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 89 0.23 340
Improvement +4.2 #23 -3.4 #327

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 269 245 214
Conference Record 12 - 8 13 - 7 15 - 5
Conference Finish 5 3 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17% 21% 11%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 28% 39% 10%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 4% 3%
First Round15% 19% 9%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 61.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 01 - 2
Quad 32 - 33 - 5
Quad 414 - 717 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 68 @Belmont L 79 - 87 8% -6  2% 0 - 1 C+ +3 D -4 F C- B A +9 B- A+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 168 @Western Kentucky L 82 - 95 25% -9  0% 0 - 2 D -11 C+ +2 B- F C- F -11 F F D-
 Thu, Nov 20 16 @Tennessee L 60 - 89 2% -22  0% 0 - 3 D+ -7 F -11 D- D+ F A- +7 B D+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 226 @UNC Asheville W 75 - 73 35% -3  17% 1 - 3 C +1 D+ -3 D- A- F B +5 F B- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 282 @Chattanooga W 70 - 64 48% +8  99% 2 - 3 C+ +2 D+ -3 F B- B- B+ +6 A- D F
 Wed, Dec 3 307 @Alabama A&M L 53 - 80 54% -9  0% 2 - 4 F -33 F -21 F C+ F F -14 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 125 @UNLV W 63 - 60 17% -2  15% 3 - 4 B +9 F -13 F+ A- F A+ +22 A+ A A+
 Thu, Dec 18 217 Tennessee Martin W 78 - 71 56% -1  28% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C +1 C+ +2 B- D+ A C -1 B+ D B-
 Sat, Dec 20 227 Southeast Missouri St. L 82 - 91 58% -10  5% 4 - 5 1 - 1 F+ -16 C- -1 D F+ A F -14 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 30 314 @Tennessee Tech W 88 - 76 57% +9  83% 5 - 5 2 - 1 B- +6 B+ +9 C- A+ C- D+ -3 F B+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 84 - 79 52% +3  88% 6 - 5 3 - 1 C +0 C +1 F A- A- C -1 C F C
 Thu, Jan 8 362 @Western Illinois W 90 - 68 83% +14  95% 7 - 5 4 - 1 B- +7 B +6 C A+ C- C+ +1 B- D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 320 @Eastern Illinois L 70 - 74 60% -8  0% 7 - 6 4 - 2 D -11 D+ -3 D F B- F+ -8 F D- D
 Thu, Jan 15 286 Morehead St. W 105 - 100 OT 71% +5  94% 8 - 6 5 - 2 D+ -5 A +12 A+ B C+ F -17 D- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 341 Southern Indiana W 73 - 67 84% +4  78% 9 - 6 6 - 2 D -9 D+ -4 C- F+ A+ D -5 F C B-
 Thu, Jan 22 248 @SIU Edwardsville L 66 - 74 39% -2  36% 9 - 7 6 - 3 D -10 C +1 F B- A F -12 F B- B
 Sat, Jan 24 260 @Lindenwood W 96 - 86 42% +5  85% 10 - 7 7 - 3 B- +7 A +12 A+ C D+ D -5 F C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 29 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 63 73% -2  30% 11 - 7 8 - 3 C- -4 F -10 F+ C D B+ +6 A+ F C
 Mon, Feb 2 314 Tennessee Tech L 85 - 90 77% -10  3% 11 - 8 8 - 4 F+ -17 B- +4 D+ A- B- F -22 F C+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 320 Eastern Illinois W 77 - 68 79% +3  81% 12 - 8 9 - 4 C- -4 C +0 C- F A+ D+ -4 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 362 Western Illinois W 83 - 56 93% +21  99% 13 - 8 10 - 4 B- +6 C +1 C+ F B B+ +6 B- B+ B
 Thu, Feb 12 341 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 71 67% -3  19% 14 - 8 11 - 4 D+ -7 C +0 F A+ F D- -7 F D+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 286 @Morehead St. L 86 - 94 48% -6  14% 14 - 9 11 - 5 D- -12 B +7 F B A F -20 F F B
 Thu, Feb 19 260 Lindenwood W 89 - 80 65% -2  40% 15 - 9 12 - 5 C +0 C +1 F A+ B C- -2 F+ C+ A
 Sat, Feb 21 248 SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 70 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 227 @Southeast Missouri St. L 76 - 80 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 217 @Tennessee Martin L 70 - 74 34%
Totals 16 - 11 13 - 7 -5 C -1 B+ D+ D- D+ -4 D- B- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C D+ D- D+ 39% 64% 30% D- D C+ C C C+ D+ B- C- D+ D+ F D- D- 45% 14% 41% F+ D- C- C- D+ B- F+ D+ F+
1.08 58% 35% 30% -3 -1 0.93 31% 1.0 .32 16% .28 75% .21 1.14 61% 47% 38% +4 +1 1.14 32% 1.1 .34 19% .38 74% .21
Nov
8		 Belmont D F F C- F 32% 30% 38% D- F B- F+ C- B C+ A+ B+ A F A+ A+ B+ 57% 6% 37% F B- B A+ A+ B F B- F
0.97 45% 21% 33% -10 -2 0.79 36% 0.8 .30 16% .29 85% .25 1.07 76% 0% 26% +4 +3 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 21% .51 67% .34
Nov
16		 Western Kentucky C+ F A A+ B 30% 28% 42% D+ B- C F F C- A+ B- A+ F F F A+ F+ 68% 8% 25% F F C- F F D- F B- F
1.07 47% 50% 43% +6 -2 1.10 29% 0.4 .11 18% .54 74% .40 1.24 64% 75% 15% 0 +4 1.09 33% 1.3 .42 12% .47 72% .34
Nov
20		 Tennessee F A+ F F D- 24% 29% 47% D- D- B+ F D+ F A+ A+ A+ A- C A+ C+ A- 46% 12% 42% D- B A+ F D+ A- F F F
0.76 73% 23% 19% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.6 .18 28% .44 76% .33 1.12 61% 17% 33% -2 +2 1.02 36% 1.5 .54 21% .56 89% .50
Nov
25		 UNC Asheville D+ D+ C+ F D- 49% 26% 25% D+ D- B+ B+ A- F C- A C+ B D+ F F F 35% 43% 22% C+ F C+ B B- A+ F B+ F
1.02 54% 43% 23% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 20% .29 76% .22 0.99 62% 63% 63% +21 -3 1.38 28% 0.9 .24 31% .55 64% .36
Nov
30		 Chattanooga D+ F F+ D F 43% 26% 30% D+ F D- A+ B- B- F A+ C- B+ B+ A+ A- A+ 35% 4% 62% F A- B F D F B- F C
1.07 48% 29% 31% -8 0 0.85 26% 1.6 .41 12% .26 93% .24 0.98 50% 0% 28% -10 +2 0.87 17% 1.7 .28 11% .24 86% .21
Dec
3		 Alabama A&M F F+ F F F 33% 33% 35% F F A+ F C+ F B+ F D+ F D- F F F 42% 19% 40% F+ F F B F A+ F C F
0.81 50% 25% 18% -15 -2 0.67 47% 0.7 .34 21% .39 55% .22 1.23 61% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 23% .54 74% .40
Dec
13		 UNLV F C A+ F F+ 46% 28% 26% C- F+ B+ B+ A- F F F F A+ C+ C+ A+ A+ 51% 12% 37% F A+ C A+ A A+ F A+ F
0.88 57% 50% 8% -8 0 0.86 36% 1.2 .44 25% .24 38% .09 0.84 57% 40% 20% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.5 .18 25% .60 59% .36
Dec
18		 Tennessee Martin C+ B- A- C B+ 41% 43% 17% F B- F A- D+ A D+ A C C A- F A+ A- 43% 16% 41% D- B+ C- D D B- F F+ F
1.10 64% 43% 33% +4 -3 1.06 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 78% .23 1.00 47% 57% 22% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 72% .38
Dec
20		 Southeast Missouri St. C- B- F B+ C- 40% 36% 25% F D D F F+ A A+ C- A+ F F+ F F F 44% 13% 42% D F D- F F A+ F F F
1.07 62% 26% 38% -1 -2 0.96 23% 0.9 .21 13% .54 72% .39 1.19 65% 67% 42% +12 +1 1.29 32% 1.7 .54 25% .50 76% .38
Dec
30		 Tennessee Tech B+ B F A+ C+ 25% 37% 39% F C- B+ A+ A+ C- F A+ F D+ F D+ D- F 42% 20% 38% D F B- A- B+ B B A- B+
1.25 64% 29% 45% +5 -3 1.05 39% 1.6 .64 16% .12 86% .10 1.08 76% 40% 37% +10 0 1.22 28% 0.9 .24 21% .24 69% .16
Jan
3		 Arkansas Little Rock C C+ F F F 49% 25% 26% D+ F C- A+ A- A- B A+ A C C A C+ C+ 42% 27% 31% F+ C D+ F F C F F+ F
1.13 64% 14% 27% -6 0 0.91 35% 1.3 .45 15% .33 81% .27 1.06 60% 23% 33% -4 -1 0.94 33% 1.2 .41 19% .48 72% .35
Jan
8		 Western Illinois B B- D C+ C 57% 17% 26% B- C C- A+ A+ C- A- F C+ C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 71% 4% 25% F B- D D+ D D+ F F F
1.25 67% 33% 36% +5 +2 1.15 32% 1.7 .55 15% .38 65% .25 0.94 50% 0% 8% -17 +4 0.77 29% 1.0 .29 15% .56 74% .41
Jan
10		 Eastern Illinois D+ F A+ F+ D 34% 25% 42% F+ D D F F B- B+ D B- F+ B A- F F 47% 21% 32% F F F+ D+ D- D A F+ B+
1.02 50% 54% 27% -3 -1 0.94 29% 0.6 .18 18% .39 73% .28 1.08 48% 27% 53% +2 +1 1.08 31% 1.1 .34 16% .19 82% .16
Jan
15		 Morehead St. A A- A- A+ A+ 39% 34% 27% F A+ D A+ B C+ B+ D+ B F A- F F D- 40% 26% 33% C- D- C- C- D+ F F F F
1.35 68% 47% 67% +20 -2 1.39 31% 1.3 .41 14% .39 69% .27 1.29 48% 53% 42% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.9 .33 10% .49 85% .42
Jan
17		 Southern Indiana D+ B- F D D+ 52% 20% 29% C+ C- F C F+ A+ F D+ F D B+ F D- F 35% 17% 48% D F D B+ C B- A+ D+ A+
1.08 62% 27% 31% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.0 .21 7% .22 71% .16 0.99 44% 44% 36% -2 0 0.98 33% 0.7 .23 19% .17 67% .11
Jan
22		 SIU Edwardsville C C F F F 43% 24% 33% B- F A+ F+ B- A A- A A F F A+ F F 41% 24% 34% F+ F F+ A+ B- B F C F
1.04 55% 25% 18% -13 0 0.76 46% 0.8 .37 11% .39 82% .32 1.17 76% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 34% 0.7 .24 21% .50 68% .34
Jan
24		 Lindenwood A B- A+ A+ A+ 56% 23% 21% C A+ C- B- C D+ F C F D C+ F F F 38% 28% 34% A- F A- F C+ C+ D F F
1.23 63% 64% 46% +12 +1 1.29 31% 1.1 .34 19% .16 70% .11 1.10 55% 47% 39% +4 -1 1.08 24% 1.3 .31 20% .35 91% .32
Jan
29		 Arkansas Little Rock F C+ D- D+ F+ 43% 23% 34% D F+ F+ A+ C D A+ F B+ B+ B A+ A+ A+ 28% 30% 43% C A+ D+ F F C A- F C+
1.01 63% 30% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.2 .33 20% .42 61% .25 0.91 53% 19% 22% -15 -2 0.69 33% 1.4 .44 19% .16 89% .14
Feb
2		 Tennessee Tech B- C+ B F+ D+ 41% 29% 30% D+ D+ A+ F+ A- B- C- C+ C F A+ D- F F 35% 15% 50% D F B- C+ C+ D+ F C- F
1.23 61% 44% 29% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .50 13% .28 76% .22 1.30 38% 43% 65% +17 0 1.37 29% 1.0 .29 17% .44 76% .33
Feb
5		 Eastern Illinois C A+ F F C- 43% 27% 29% D- C- F D+ F A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ D+ D+ F+ F 47% 18% 36% F F B- F F A+ C- A C+
1.12 77% 29% 20% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 10% .44 78% .34 0.99 57% 38% 38% +1 +1 1.07 23% 1.8 .42 25% .29 67% .19
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Western Illinois C A+ D+ F B- 45% 29% 26% F+ C+ C F F B F A+ D- B+ B D- A+ B 35% 24% 41% D+ B- C- A+ B+ B F F+ F
1.22 85% 35% 27% +8 -1 1.17 33% 0.4 .12 12% .20 92% .18 0.82 47% 42% 20% -11 -1 0.78 26% 0.6 .16 19% .40 73% .29
Feb
12		 Southern Indiana C F F+ A+ F 37% 42% 21% F F A+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ D- D F C- F 49% 23% 28% D F F B+ D+ C+ F A+ F
1.10 38% 28% 44% -9 -3 0.79 46% 1.1 .51 21% .54 86% .46 1.07 57% 50% 33% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.7 .28 18% .63 44% .28
Feb
14		 Morehead St. B F F A F+ 31% 33% 35% F F C+ B B A A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 54% 11% 35% F F F F F B F D- F
1.24 47% 25% 41% -4 -2 0.90 39% 1.1 .41 10% .58 89% .51 1.36 60% 80% 50% +14 +2 1.35 44% 1.2 .52 20% .51 79% .40
Feb
19		 Lindenwood C C- C- F F+ 38% 38% 25% F F A A+ A+ B A+ C A+ C- C+ C- F F 49% 22% 29% C- F+ B- C- C+ A F D- F
1.12 57% 33% 21% -7 -2 0.84 41% 1.4 .57 15% .46 71% .33 1.01 56% 36% 40% +1 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 24% .41 72% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.6 19.4 8.1 28.0 1st
2nd 6.4 11.3 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 19.4 1.7 21.1 3rd
4th 3.2 15.9 19.1 4th
5th 9.7 9.7 5th
6th 4.3 4.3 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 17.3 42.3 32.3 8.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 8.1    5.9 2.2
14-6 60.0% 19.4    1.3 6.8 8.8 2.4
13-7 1.3% 0.6    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 28.0% 28.0 7.3 9.0 8.9 2.6 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 8.1% 33.5% 33.5% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.6 5.4
14-6 32.3% 26.7% 26.7% 15.7 0.1 2.7 5.7 23.7
13-7 42.3% 11.2% 11.2% 15.8 0.0 0.9 3.8 37.6
12-8 17.3% 6.9% 6.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 16.1
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 15.6 82.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 15.1 0.5 12.6 63.6 23.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4%
Lose Out 6.3%