Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#238
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#171
Pace74.9#50
Improvement-0.5#214

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#290
First Shot-3.6#280
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#243
Layup/Dunks+0.7#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#342
Freethrows-0.1#193
Improvement-0.7#230

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#164
First Shot-0.6#190
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#153
Layups/Dunks-3.8#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#43
Freethrows-3.2#345
Improvement+0.2#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 15.9% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 75.4% 85.4% 63.8%
.500 or above in Conference 72.7% 83.5% 60.2%
Conference Champion 9.3% 13.9% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.6% 2.9%
First Four1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
First Round11.8% 15.0% 8.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Away) - 53.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 33 - 5
Quad 412 - 715 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 69 @Belmont L 79-87 8%     0 - 1 +3.0 -0.2 +4.3
  Sun, Nov 16 144 @Western Kentucky L 82-95 21%     0 - 2 -8.8 +4.3 -12.0
  Thu, Nov 20 15 @Tennessee L 60-89 2%     0 - 3 -8.6 -8.9 +3.7
  Tue, Nov 25 231 @UNC Asheville W 75-73 38%     1 - 3 +0.6 -2.3 +2.8
  Sun, Nov 30 234 @Chattanooga W 70-64 38%     2 - 3 +4.5 -0.2 +5.1
  Wed, Dec 3 293 @Alabama A&M L 53-80 49%     2 - 4 -31.1 -16.4 -16.8
  Sat, Dec 13 132 @UNLV W 63-60 19%     3 - 4 +7.8 -9.0 +16.8
  Thu, Dec 18 213 Tennessee Martin W 78-71 58%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +0.5 +2.2 -1.7
  Sat, Dec 20 211 Southeast Missouri St. L 82-91 57%     4 - 5 1 - 1 -15.4 -0.7 -13.9
  Sat, Jan 3 309 @Arkansas Little Rock W 72-71 54%    
  Thu, Jan 8 355 @Western Illinois W 73-67 72%    
  Sat, Jan 10 325 @Eastern Illinois W 71-69 58%    
  Thu, Jan 15 307 Morehead St. W 75-68 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 341 Southern Indiana W 78-68 82%    
  Thu, Jan 22 248 @SIU Edwardsville L 68-71 41%    
  Sat, Jan 24 224 @Lindenwood L 76-80 37%    
  Tue, Jan 27 284 Tennessee Tech W 78-73 68%    
  Thu, Jan 29 309 Arkansas Little Rock W 75-68 74%    
  Thu, Feb 5 325 Eastern Illinois W 74-66 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 355 Western Illinois W 76-64 87%    
  Thu, Feb 12 341 @Southern Indiana W 75-71 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 307 @Morehead St. W 72-71 53%    
  Thu, Feb 19 224 Lindenwood W 79-77 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 248 SIU Edwardsville W 71-68 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 213 @Tennessee Martin L 70-74 36%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 3.2 2.9 1.5 0.3 9.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 5.1 4.3 1.5 0.2 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 6.7 4.9 1.1 0.1 15.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.4 5.4 1.1 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 5.5 5.3 1.2 0.1 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.1 5.2 1.3 0.1 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.5 1.5 0.1 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.2 1.5 0.1 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.1 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.6 7.5 11.5 14.1 15.4 15.7 12.4 8.6 4.5 1.7 0.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-4 89.9% 1.5    1.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 63.5% 2.9    1.6 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 36.8% 3.2    1.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 10.3% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.3% 9.3 4.4 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.3% 45.5% 45.5% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
16-4 1.7% 42.2% 42.2% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.0
15-5 4.5% 36.4% 36.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 2.9
14-6 8.6% 30.9% 30.9% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.6 5.9
13-7 12.4% 22.2% 22.2% 15.3 0.2 1.5 1.1 9.6
12-8 15.7% 14.2% 14.2% 15.6 0.1 0.8 1.3 13.5
11-9 15.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.7 0.0 0.4 0.9 14.1
10-10 14.1% 5.0% 5.0% 15.8 0.2 0.6 13.4
9-11 11.5% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 11.0
8-12 7.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.4
7-13 4.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.6
6-14 2.3% 2.3
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 5.5 5.0 87.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.7 4.3 37.0 45.7 13.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%