Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#266
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#270
Pace64.5#303
Improvement+2.2#49

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#257
First Shot-3.2#267
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#183
Layup/Dunks-2.1#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#311
Freethrows+0.6#147
Improvement+2.8#17

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#266
First Shot-2.5#259
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#209
Layups/Dunks+0.8#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#97
Freethrows-2.7#326
Improvement-0.6#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.2% 18.5% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 53.2% 72.6% 48.5%
.500 or above in Conference 76.7% 84.4% 74.9%
Conference Champion 20.0% 27.6% 18.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.5% 3.1%
First Four7.7% 7.5% 7.7%
First Round10.5% 15.1% 9.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 19.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 414 - 915 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 43   @ Louisville L 45-93 4%     0 - 1 -34.0 -23.2 -7.8
  Nov 08, 2024 25   @ Cincinnati L 56-83 3%     0 - 2 -10.1 -1.2 -12.2
  Nov 14, 2024 200   @ Chattanooga L 62-76 25%     0 - 3 -12.8 -12.7 +0.1
  Nov 20, 2024 238   Austin Peay W 63-58 55%     1 - 3 -2.2 -3.3 +1.8
  Nov 27, 2024 347   NJIT L 69-78 73%     1 - 4 -21.3 -0.6 -21.8
  Nov 29, 2024 259   @ Cleveland St. W 71-69 37%     2 - 4 -0.4 +1.1 -1.5
  Dec 04, 2024 195   @ Marshall L 77-80 24%     2 - 5 -1.5 +5.7 -7.2
  Dec 07, 2024 157   @ Ohio L 68-77 19%    
  Dec 19, 2024 328   Tennessee Martin W 72-66 73%    
  Dec 21, 2024 318   Tennessee St. W 76-70 71%    
  Dec 31, 2024 293   @ Southern Indiana L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 04, 2025 330   @ Tennessee Tech W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 09, 2025 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 295   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 16, 2025 324   Western Illinois W 69-63 71%    
  Jan 18, 2025 354   Lindenwood W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 23, 2025 316   @ Eastern Illinois L 66-67 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 273   @ SIU Edwardsville L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 28, 2025 293   Southern Indiana W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 30, 2025 330   Tennessee Tech W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 06, 2025 295   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 233   Arkansas Little Rock W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 13, 2025 354   @ Lindenwood W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 324   Western Illinois W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 20, 2025 273   SIU Edwardsville W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 316   Eastern Illinois W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 27, 2025 318   @ Tennessee St. L 73-74 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Martin W 70-69 51%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.2 4.7 3.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 20.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 4.9 5.4 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.9 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.8 4.2 1.2 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.8 4.0 1.0 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.3 1.1 0.1 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.4 1.2 0.1 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.1 0.1 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.2 6.1 8.2 10.1 12.0 12.1 11.9 10.8 8.5 5.7 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
18-2 98.8% 1.6    1.5 0.1
17-3 94.0% 3.2    2.9 0.3
16-4 82.8% 4.7    3.6 1.0 0.1
15-5 61.2% 5.2    3.1 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 32.7% 3.5    1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1
13-7 8.9% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.0% 20.0 13.3 5.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 47.3% 47.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.5% 57.8% 57.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.6% 46.6% 46.6% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.9
17-3 3.4% 42.1% 42.1% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.5 2.0
16-4 5.7% 37.1% 37.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.6
15-5 8.5% 30.3% 30.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.9
14-6 10.8% 24.5% 24.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.5 8.1
13-7 11.9% 15.5% 15.5% 16.0 0.1 1.8 10.1
12-8 12.1% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1 10.9
11-9 12.0% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8 11.3
10-10 10.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 9.8
9-11 8.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 8.0
8-12 6.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.0
7-13 4.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.2
6-14 2.5% 2.5
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 11.1 85.8 0.0%