IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.4	#307
Expected Predictive Rating	-8.3	#295

Pace	67.4	#240
Improvement	+0.0	#180

Offense
Total Offense	-5.6	#322

First Shot	-6.3	#343
After Offensive Rebound	+0.7	#126

Layup/Dunks	-2.7	#277
2 Pt Jumpshots	+1.9	#77
3 Pt Jumpshots	-5.5	#327
Freethrows	+0.1	#177

Improvement	-1.2	#268

Defense
Total Defense	-2.8	#270

First Shot	+0.4	#157
After Offensive Rebounds	-3.2	#348

Layups/Dunks	+0.2	#167
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.6	#152
3 Pt Jumpshots	+0.0	#189
Freethrows	-0.4	#208

Improvement	+1.2	#109

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.7%	7.8%	3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.9	15.9

.500 or above	15.1%	28.6%	10.6%
.500 or above in Conference	56.2%	76.2%	49.7%
Conference Champion	7.4%	16.5%	4.4%
Last Place in Conference	3.3%	1.0%	4.1%

First Four	3.1%	4.7%	2.6%
First Round	3.1%	5.3%	2.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Away) - 24.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 8
Quad 4	11 - 9	12 - 18

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Fri, Nov 7	61 @Wake Forest	L	65-81	4%	0 - 1			-4.2	-9.5	+7.3
Sun, Nov 9	22 @Georgia	L	81-120	1%	0 - 2			-20.1	+6.5	-21.7
Tue, Nov 11	40 @Clemson	L	56-83	2%	0 - 3			-11.8	+0.4	-16.8
Fri, Nov 21	141 @East Tennessee St.	L	62-77	12%	0 - 4			-10.7	-5.3	-6.5
Sat, Nov 22	359 Louisiana Monroe	W	83-80	74%	1 - 4			-11.9	+1.3	-13.2
Sat, Nov 29	354 @IU Indianapolis	L	80-85	59%	1 - 5			-15.7	-11.0	-4.0
Tue, Dec 2	100 @Murray St.	L	52-84	7%	1 - 6			-23.7	-17.5	-7.5
Sat, Dec 6	286 @Presbyterian	L	72-80	32%	1 - 7			-11.6	+1.4	-13.3
Tue, Dec 16	309 Arkansas Little Rock	W	78-64	62%	2 - 7	1 - 0		+2.5	-4.2	+5.9
Sat, Dec 20	339 @Southern Indiana	W	64-60 OT	50%	3 - 7	2 - 0		-4.4	-3.9	+0.0
Thu, Jan 1	229 @Lindenwood	L	71-78	25%
Sat, Jan 3	249 @SIU Edwardsville	L	64-70	27%
Thu, Jan 8	214 Tennessee Martin	L	68-70	43%
Sat, Jan 10	215 Southeast Missouri St.	L	73-75	43%
Thu, Jan 15	237 @Tennessee St.	L	68-75	27%
Sat, Jan 17	285 @Tennessee Tech	L	70-75	33%
Thu, Jan 22	356 Western Illinois	W	72-64	78%
Sat, Jan 24	325 Eastern Illinois	W	70-66	66%
Thu, Jan 29	249 SIU Edwardsville	L	66-67	49%
Sat, Jan 31	229 Lindenwood	L	74-75	46%
Thu, Feb 5	215 @Southeast Missouri St.	L	70-78	24%
Sat, Feb 7	214 @Tennessee Martin	L	65-73	24%
Thu, Feb 12	285 Tennessee Tech	W	73-72	55%
Sat, Feb 14	237 Tennessee St.	L	71-72	47%
Thu, Feb 19	325 @Eastern Illinois	L	67-69	45%
Sat, Feb 21	356 @Western Illinois	W	69-67	58%
Tue, Feb 24	339 Southern Indiana	W	73-67	70%
Thu, Feb 26	309 @Arkansas Little Rock	L	68-71	40%
Projected Record					11 - 17	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	1.0	2.1	2.1	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0		7.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.6	3.5	2.4	0.7	0.1	0.0					8.4	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	1.8	4.6	2.8	0.6	0.0							10.0	3rd
4th										0.1	1.6	5.1	3.6	0.6	0.0								11.0	4th
5th									0.1	1.1	5.1	4.7	0.9	0.0									11.9	5th
6th								0.0	0.9	4.7	5.6	1.2	0.1										12.5	6th
7th							0.1	0.9	4.0	5.8	1.7	0.1											12.5	7th
8th						0.0	0.8	3.3	5.0	2.0	0.1	0.0											11.3	8th
9th					0.1	0.7	2.9	3.5	1.6	0.2													8.9	9th
10th				0.1	0.6	1.5	1.7	0.8	0.1														4.8	10th
11th			0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.0															1.5	11th

Total			0.1	0.3	1.2	2.8	5.5	8.6	11.6	13.7	14.2	13.1	10.9	7.9	5.0	2.9	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-3	99.4%	0.5		0.5	0.0
16-4	92.7%	1.4		1.1	0.2	0.0
15-5	73.7%	2.1		1.3	0.7	0.1
14-6	41.0%	2.1		0.8	0.9	0.3	0.1
13-7	12.9%	1.0		0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	1.3%	0.1			0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%	0.0							0.0
10-10	0.0%

Total	7.4%	7.4		4.0	2.3	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																							0.0
19-1	0.0%																					0.0		0.0
18-2	0.1%		35.7%	35.7%		14.7															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
17-3	0.5%		29.4%	29.4%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4
16-4	1.5%		27.4%	27.4%		15.7																0.1	0.3	1.1
15-5	2.9%		23.6%	23.6%		15.9																0.1	0.6	2.2
14-6	5.0%		17.1%	17.1%		15.9																0.1	0.8	4.2
13-7	7.9%		10.9%	10.9%		16.0																0.0	0.8	7.1
12-8	10.9%		6.8%	6.8%		16.0																0.0	0.7	10.2
11-9	13.1%		3.2%	3.2%		16.0																	0.4	12.7
10-10	14.2%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																	0.3	13.9
9-11	13.7%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	13.6
8-12	11.6%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	11.6
7-13	8.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	8.6
6-14	5.5%																							5.5
5-15	2.8%																							2.8
4-16	1.2%																							1.2
3-17	0.3%																							0.3
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19
0-20

Total	100%		4.7%	4.7%	0.0%	15.9															0.0	0.4	4.3	95.3		0.0%