Lindenwood
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#237
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#179
Pace77.3#28
Improvement+3.9#14

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#258
First Shot-4.2#295
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#138
Layup/Dunks+3.1#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#268
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#347
Freethrows+1.2#103
Improvement+2.5#31

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#187
First Shot+0.6#144
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#274
Layups/Dunks-1.2#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#91
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#118
Freethrows-1.4#270
Improvement+1.4#79
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.7% 18.6% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 75.5% 78.5% 54.0%
.500 or above in Conference 84.9% 87.3% 67.1%
Conference Champion 27.0% 29.0% 12.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.4% 3.5%
First Four4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
First Round15.8% 16.6% 9.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 87.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 416 - 717 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 24 @Texas Tech L 60-98 3%     0 - 1 -20.1 -10.8 -6.0
  Mon, Nov 10 42 @Saint Louis L 66-109 5%     0 - 2 -28.4 -8.7 -13.8
  Fri, Nov 14 266 Charleston Southern W 83-77 56%     1 - 2 +0.4 +0.1 -0.3
  Sun, Nov 16 290 @Alabama A&M L 65-74 50%     1 - 3 -13.2 -6.2 -7.2
  Thu, Nov 20 27 @Indiana L 53-73 3%     1 - 4 -2.2 -11.5 +9.5
  Mon, Nov 24 345 UMKC W 80-67 84%     2 - 4 -1.8 -2.9 +0.1
  Tue, Dec 2 326 @Northern Illinois W 99-64 60%     3 - 4 +28.2 +16.3 +9.9
  Sat, Dec 6 333 @Eastern Illinois W 82-74 63%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +0.4 +5.7 -5.5
  Thu, Dec 18 354 Western Illinois W 78-65 88%    
  Tue, Dec 23 250 @Missouri St. L 70-72 42%    
  Thu, Jan 1 323 Morehead St. W 79-71 78%    
  Sat, Jan 3 317 Southern Indiana W 81-73 78%    
  Tue, Jan 6 233 @SIU Edwardsville L 70-73 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 313 Arkansas Little Rock W 77-69 76%    
  Thu, Jan 15 217 @Southeast Missouri St. L 76-80 36%    
  Sat, Jan 17 251 @Tennessee Martin L 71-73 43%    
  Thu, Jan 22 265 Tennessee Tech W 80-76 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 236 Tennessee St. W 77-74 61%    
  Thu, Jan 29 317 @Southern Indiana W 78-76 57%    
  Sat, Jan 31 323 @Morehead St. W 76-74 58%    
  Tue, Feb 3 233 SIU Edwardsville W 73-70 60%    
  Thu, Feb 5 313 @Arkansas Little Rock W 74-72 56%    
  Thu, Feb 12 251 Tennessee Martin W 74-70 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 217 Southeast Missouri St. W 79-77 58%    
  Thu, Feb 19 236 @Tennessee St. L 74-77 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 265 @Tennessee Tech L 77-79 45%    
  Thu, Feb 26 333 Eastern Illinois W 76-67 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 354 @Western Illinois W 75-68 72%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.5 6.9 6.6 4.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 27.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.6 6.1 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.5 5.2 1.8 0.2 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.7 4.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 3.8 0.9 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.4 0.9 0.1 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.6 0.9 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 4.4 6.4 8.9 11.1 13.0 13.6 12.6 10.5 7.5 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
18-2 99.7% 2.2    2.1 0.0
17-3 97.3% 4.3    4.0 0.3
16-4 87.7% 6.6    5.3 1.2 0.1
15-5 66.0% 6.9    4.2 2.3 0.4 0.0
14-6 36.0% 4.5    1.6 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-7 10.2% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.0% 27.0 18.4 6.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 65.9% 65.9% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.8% 48.5% 48.5% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4
18-2 2.2% 46.6% 46.6% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.2
17-3 4.5% 43.2% 43.2% 14.8 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.2 2.5
16-4 7.5% 35.6% 35.6% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.8 4.8
15-5 10.5% 31.9% 31.9% 15.5 0.2 1.5 1.7 7.2
14-6 12.6% 26.2% 26.2% 15.7 0.1 1.1 2.2 9.3
13-7 13.6% 18.0% 18.0% 15.8 0.0 0.4 2.0 11.2
12-8 13.0% 9.8% 9.8% 15.9 0.2 1.1 11.7
11-9 11.1% 6.7% 6.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 10.4
10-10 8.9% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.6
9-11 6.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 6.3
8-12 4.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.3
7-13 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
6-14 1.2% 1.2
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 6.3 9.3 82.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.0 17.4 65.2 13.0 4.3