Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#325
Expected Predictive Rating-9.8#314
Pace66.1#272
Improvement-1.4#274

Offense
Total Offense-7.0#339
First Shot-5.4#328
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#285
Layup/Dunks-2.0#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#339
Freethrows+0.0#182
Improvement+1.0#104

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#269
First Shot-0.7#188
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#322
Layups/Dunks-2.5#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#92
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#143
Freethrows-0.5#222
Improvement-2.4#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 3.9% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 4.5% 11.4% 2.9%
.500 or above in Conference 30.5% 51.9% 25.6%
Conference Champion 1.9% 5.5% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.8% 4.2% 13.5%
First Four1.6% 2.9% 1.2%
First Round1.2% 2.3% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Away) - 18.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 49 - 1110 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 219 @Valparaiso L 63-66 19%     0 - 1 -3.7 -9.0 +5.2
  Fri, Nov 7 234 Nicholls St. W 65-57 41%     1 - 1 +0.6 -10.3 +10.9
  Tue, Nov 11 64 @Notre Dame L 58-78 3%     1 - 2 -8.6 -0.3 -11.3
  Fri, Nov 14 20 @Kentucky L 53-99 1%     1 - 3 -26.8 -8.6 -19.7
  Tue, Nov 25 282 @Central Arkansas L 60-81 27%     1 - 4 -24.5 -6.6 -20.0
  Fri, Nov 28 5 @Purdue L 62-109 0.4%    1 - 5 -22.2 -3.0 -18.0
  Sat, Dec 6 229 Lindenwood L 74-82 40%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -15.1 -2.5 -12.4
  Wed, Dec 10 259 Eastern Kentucky L 59-68 45%     1 - 7 -17.4 -12.4 -6.1
  Sun, Dec 14 3 @Iowa St. L 53-78 0.4%    1 - 8 +0.2 -6.9 +7.2
  Thu, Dec 18 249 SIU Edwardsville W 76-72 OT 43%     2 - 8 1 - 1 -4.0 +0.7 -4.8
  Thu, Jan 1 215 @Southeast Missouri St. L 68-77 19%    
  Sat, Jan 3 214 @Tennessee Martin L 63-72 19%    
  Thu, Jan 8 285 Tennessee Tech L 71-72 49%    
  Sat, Jan 10 237 Tennessee St. L 69-71 42%    
  Tue, Jan 13 356 Western Illinois W 70-63 74%    
  Thu, Jan 15 309 @Arkansas Little Rock L 66-70 34%    
  Thu, Jan 22 339 @Southern Indiana L 68-69 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 307 @Morehead St. L 66-70 34%    
  Thu, Jan 29 214 Tennessee Martin L 66-69 38%    
  Sat, Jan 31 215 Southeast Missouri St. L 71-74 38%    
  Thu, Feb 5 237 @Tennessee St. L 66-74 23%    
  Sat, Feb 7 285 @Tennessee Tech L 68-74 29%    
  Tue, Feb 10 356 @Western Illinois W 67-66 53%    
  Sat, Feb 14 309 Arkansas Little Rock W 69-67 57%    
  Thu, Feb 19 307 Morehead St. W 69-67 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 339 Southern Indiana W 71-66 66%    
  Thu, Feb 26 229 @Lindenwood L 68-77 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 249 @SIU Edwardsville L 61-69 24%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.7 4.4 1.0 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.5 5.9 1.4 0.1 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.1 6.5 2.2 0.1 15.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.3 6.2 2.4 0.2 16.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.5 4.1 1.5 0.2 13.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 6.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.7 8.1 11.3 13.9 14.6 13.9 11.3 8.2 5.5 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-4 85.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-5 71.5% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 44.9% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 12.7% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 29.4% 29.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2
15-5 0.6% 23.3% 23.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5
14-6 1.6% 19.6% 19.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 1.3
13-7 3.1% 11.0% 11.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 2.7
12-8 5.5% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 5.1
11-9 8.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.3 7.9
10-10 11.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 11.1
9-11 13.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.7
8-12 14.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.5
7-13 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
6-14 11.3% 11.3
5-15 8.1% 8.1
4-16 4.7% 4.7
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%