Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.3 #314
Expected Predictive Rating -8.4 #302
Pace 66.1 #268
Improvement -1.0 #245

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #355 F D- D- C F
Defense #193 C F C+ D+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #198 1.05 #304 -2.5 #270
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #29 0.62 #337 +1.7 #90
Three Pointers 32% #339 0.94 #278 -5.9 #338
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #348 -6.7 #348
Freethrows 16.5 #234 76% #69 12.5 #189
Second Chance 26.2% #303 0.96 #284 0.25 #318
Turnovers 18.7% #311
Total Offense -8.6 #355

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #140 1.26 #304 -2.9 #278
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #354 0.80 #244 +2.3 #31
Three Pointers 46% #45 0.86 #20 +1.0 #144
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #168 +0.4 #167
Freethrows 18.0 #215 78% #349 14.0 #283
Second Chance 36.0% #339 1.15 #300 0.41 #348
Turnovers 17.1% #140
Total Defense -0.7 #193

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #323 2.0% #343
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.8% #337 -2.7% #133
Possession Length 19.0 #334 16.5 #50
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #137 0.19 #248
Improvement -1.5 #274 +0.6 #138

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.2% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3.5% 6.4% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 40.8% 57.9% 28.3%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.2% 1.7%
First Four1.5% 2.0% 1.1%
First Round1.4% 2.0% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 42.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 410 - 1011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 170 @Valparaiso L 63 - 66 15% -5  0 - 1 -1 -7 C- F F +6 A+ D A+
 Fri, Nov 7 232 Nicholls St. W 65 - 57 41% +5  1 - 1 +1 -12 F C+ D+ +13 A+ A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 11 72 @Notre Dame L 58 - 78 4% -7  1 - 2 -9 +0 B- F F -12 B F C
 Fri, Nov 14 24 @Kentucky L 53 - 99 1% -27  1 - 3 -27 -9 F F B- -19 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 255 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 25% -16  1 - 4 -23 -7 D- D- D- -18 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 28 5 @Purdue L 62 - 109 1% -25  1 - 5 -22 -3 A F F -18 F F B
 Sat, Dec 6 250 Lindenwood L 74 - 82 44% +1  1 - 6 0 - 1 -16 -2 F B A+ -14 D F D
 Wed, Dec 10 248 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 68 44% -5  1 - 7 -17 -14 F D F -4 C C C
 Sun, Dec 14 10 @Iowa St. L 53 - 78 1% -15  1 - 8 -2 -8 F D+ D- +6 A+ A B+
 Thu, Dec 18 262 SIU Edwardsville W 76 - 72 OT 47% +0  2 - 8 1 - 1 -5 +1 B+ C F -6 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 259 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 68 26% +2  2 - 9 1 - 2 -11 -14 F F C- +3 A F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 206 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 65 19% +8  2 - 10 1 - 3 -4 -7 F F F +3 B+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 333 Tennessee Tech W 71 - 61 67% -2  3 - 10 2 - 3 -4 +1 D- B- B+ -4 C+ D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 233 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 41% +8  4 - 10 3 - 3 -3 -0 C- C B- -2 C A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 358 Western Illinois W 57 - 55 78% +4  5 - 10 4 - 3 -16 -19 F F F +3 A+ F B
 Thu, Jan 15 283 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63 - 74 30% +4  5 - 11 4 - 4 -15 -7 F A F -9 D F D
 Thu, Jan 22 324 @Southern Indiana L 65 - 67 42%
 Sat, Jan 24 296 @Morehead St. L 66 - 70 34%
 Thu, Jan 29 206 Tennessee Martin L 63 - 66 38%
 Sat, Jan 31 259 Southeast Missouri St. L 69 - 70 46%
 Thu, Feb 5 233 @Tennessee St. L 67 - 75 23%
 Sat, Feb 7 333 @Tennessee Tech L 67 - 68 45%
 Tue, Feb 10 358 @Western Illinois W 65 - 63 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 283 Arkansas Little Rock W 69 - 68 52%
 Thu, Feb 19 296 Morehead St. W 69 - 67 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 324 Southern Indiana W 68 - 64 64%
 Thu, Feb 26 250 @Lindenwood L 67 - 74 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 262 @SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 66 27%
Totals 10 - 18 9 - 11 -9 -9 F D- D- -1 C F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.3 0.1 4.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.7 2.8 0.3 7.3 4th
5th 0.5 3.5 5.3 0.9 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.8 7.7 2.6 0.1 14.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 4.2 9.7 4.8 0.2 19.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 6.1 10.5 6.1 0.8 0.0 24.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.9 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.1 4.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.3 2.4 6.7 12.3 17.3 20.3 17.2 12.4 7.0 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 61.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-6 32.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 8.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 1.1% 25.2% 25.2% 15.8 0.1 0.2 0.8
13-7 2.9% 12.4% 12.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.5
12-8 7.0% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.5 6.5
11-9 12.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.4 12.0
10-10 17.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 17.0
9-11 20.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 20.1
8-12 17.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.2
7-13 12.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.2
6-14 6.7% 6.7
5-15 2.4% 2.4
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.9 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%