Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.8#346
Expected Predictive Rating-19.0#351
Pace70.9#136
Improvement-0.7#245

Offense
Total Offense-9.1#352
First Shot-4.7#308
After Offensive Rebound-4.4#356
Layup/Dunks-1.9#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#113
Freethrows-1.7#285
Improvement+0.4#128

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#309
First Shot-2.7#266
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#296
Layups/Dunks-2.9#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#246
Freethrows+3.3#19
Improvement-1.1#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.7% 5.6% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.1% 33.3% 45.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 21.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 30 - 60 - 13
Quad 44 - 125 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 44   @ Northwestern L 56-80 1%     0 - 1 -11.0 -12.1 +1.6
  Nov 12, 2021 62   @ Saint Louis L 44-86 2%     0 - 2 -31.4 -24.1 -7.2
  Nov 15, 2021 302   Central Michigan L 61-62 39%     0 - 3 -11.9 -18.5 +6.5
  Nov 22, 2021 161   @ Eastern Kentucky L 43-82 6%     0 - 4 -35.6 -34.6 +3.2
  Nov 24, 2021 297   Albany L 62-64 27%     0 - 5 -9.3 -8.4 -1.0
  Nov 28, 2021 245   Evansville L 54-70 26%     0 - 6 -23.2 -16.9 -7.8
  Dec 01, 2021 310   @ Northern Illinois L 61-69 21%    
  Dec 07, 2021 128   @ Missouri L 58-77 3%    
  Dec 11, 2021 103   @ Butler L 53-74 3%    
  Dec 18, 2021 190   @ Western Illinois L 65-81 7%    
  Dec 21, 2021 213   @ Ball St. L 66-81 9%    
  Dec 29, 2021 133   @ Morehead St. L 57-76 4%    
  Jan 01, 2022 66   Belmont L 64-82 5%    
  Jan 06, 2022 89   Murray St. L 58-75 6%    
  Jan 08, 2022 261   @ Tennessee Tech L 65-76 16%    
  Jan 13, 2022 328   SIU Edwardsville L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 15, 2022 263   @ Austin Peay L 63-74 15%    
  Jan 20, 2022 89   @ Murray St. L 55-78 2%    
  Jan 22, 2022 304   Southeast Missouri St. L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 27, 2022 345   @ Tennessee Martin L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 29, 2022 319   Tennessee St. L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 03, 2022 328   @ SIU Edwardsville L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 05, 2022 304   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 69-78 21%    
  Feb 10, 2022 261   Tennessee Tech L 68-73 31%    
  Feb 12, 2022 345   Tennessee Martin W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 17, 2022 66   @ Belmont L 61-85 2%    
  Feb 19, 2022 319   @ Tennessee St. L 69-77 24%    
  Feb 24, 2022 133   Morehead St. L 60-73 12%    
  Feb 26, 2022 263   Austin Peay L 66-71 32%    
Projected Record 5 - 24 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 1.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.6 2.8 0.5 12.4 7th
8th 0.9 5.2 8.1 3.5 0.5 0.0 18.1 8th
9th 0.2 2.8 8.2 9.8 4.1 0.3 0.0 25.4 9th
10th 2.3 7.0 10.3 7.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 29.9 10th
Total 2.3 7.2 13.1 16.8 17.7 15.7 11.3 7.9 4.3 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.2
11-7 0.3% 0.3
10-8 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
9-9 2.2% 2.2
8-10 4.3% 4.3
7-11 7.9% 7.9
6-12 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.3
5-13 15.7% 15.7
4-14 17.7% 17.7
3-15 16.8% 16.8
2-16 13.1% 13.1
1-17 7.2% 7.2
0-18 2.3% 2.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%