Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.9 #321
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 #319
Pace 65.3 #268
Improvement -1.6 #256

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #355 F+ D+ D+ C- D-
Defense #205 C D- B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #214 1.00 #344 -3.7 #306
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #17 0.61 #350 +1.8 #85
Three Pointers 31% #347 0.94 #276 -6.1 #344
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #359 -8.1 #359
Freethrows 0.28 #264 75% #79 0.21 #217
Second Chance 26.0% #302 0.98 #242 0.26 #299
Turnovers 18.7% #289
Total Offense -8.9 #355

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #152 1.26 #304 -2.7 #278
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #343 0.80 #263 +1.9 #48
Three Pointers 46% #52 0.90 #40 +0.3 #167
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #193 -0.5 #193
Freethrows 0.32 #227 78% #358 0.25 #294
Second Chance 36.1% #342 1.10 #286 0.40 #339
Turnovers 19.1% #68
Total Defense -0.9 #205

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.9% #332 1.7% #322
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.2% #351 -0.7% #174
Possession Length 18.7 #315 16.5 #52
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #162 0.18 #218
Improvement -1.0 #245 -0.6 #218

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 2.0% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 21.5% 43.4% 15.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.7% 1.7% 0.5%
First Round0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Away) - 21.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 410 - 1010 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 159 @Valparaiso L 63 - 66 12% -5  0 - 1 -0 -7 C- F F +7 A+ D A-
 Fri, Nov 7 248 Nicholls St. W 65 - 57 43% +5  1 - 1 +0 -10 F C+ C- +11 A+ A D+
 Tue, Nov 11 81 @Notre Dame L 58 - 78 4% -7  1 - 2 -10 -1 C+ F+ D -12 B F C
 Fri, Nov 14 26 @Kentucky L 53 - 99 1% -27  1 - 3 -27 -9 D- F B- -19 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 208 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 17% -16  1 - 4 -21 -7 D- D+ C -16 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 9 @Purdue L 62 - 109 0% -25  1 - 5 -23 -4 B+ F F -18 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 246 Lindenwood L 74 - 82 42% +1  1 - 6 0 - 1 -16 -2 F B A+ -13 D+ F D-
 Wed, Dec 10 266 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 68 46% -5  1 - 7 -18 -15 F D D- -4 C C- C-
 Sun, Dec 14 4 @Iowa St. L 53 - 78 0% -15  1 - 8 +0 -7 D- C- D +7 A A B-
 Thu, Dec 18 245 SIU Edwardsville W 76 - 72 OT 42% +0  2 - 8 1 - 1 -4 +2 B C F -6 F A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 1 236 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 68 21% +2  2 - 9 1 - 2 -10 -13 F+ F B +3 B+ F D
 Sat, Jan 3 206 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 65 17% +0  2 - 10 1 - 3 -4 -6 F F C +2 A+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 323 Tennessee Tech W 71 - 61 62% -2  3 - 10 2 - 3 -3 +0 D- C+ B -2 C+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 237 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 41% +8  4 - 10 3 - 3 -4 -2 C- C B -2 C A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 362 Western Illinois W 57 - 55 81% +4  5 - 10 4 - 3 -17 -20 F F D +3 A- D- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 292 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63 - 74 30% +4  5 - 11 4 - 4 -15 -6 F A- F -10 D F D+
 Thu, Jan 22 332 @Southern Indiana W 59 - 51 OT 41% -3  6 - 11 5 - 4 +0 -15 F D- D+ +15 A+ F A
 Sat, Jan 24 298 @Morehead St. L 68 - 73 32% -0  6 - 12 5 - 5 -10 -1 F A D- -10 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 206 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 35% -7  6 - 13 5 - 6 -14 -2 F+ C A+ -12 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 236 Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 77 40% -12  6 - 14 5 - 7 -25 -12 F+ D- D- -15 F A+ C-
 Thu, Feb 5 237 @Tennessee St. L 68 - 76 21%
 Sat, Feb 7 323 @Tennessee Tech L 67 - 70 40%
 Tue, Feb 10 362 @Western Illinois W 66 - 63 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 292 Arkansas Little Rock W 67 - 66 51%
 Thu, Feb 19 298 Morehead St. W 69 - 68 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 332 Southern Indiana W 67 - 63 63%
 Thu, Feb 26 246 @Lindenwood L 67 - 75 22%
 Sat, Feb 28 245 @SIU Edwardsville L 58 - 66 23%
Totals 9 - 19 8 - 12 -10 -9 F+ D+ D+ -1 C D- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.7 1.0 3rd
4th 0.8 0.8 1.6 4th
5th 0.8 2.3 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.1 1.5 6.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 8.0 7.3 0.3 17.7 7th
8th 1.3 8.4 20.0 14.9 2.4 0.0 47.0 8th
9th 0.9 5.6 9.2 5.0 0.8 21.3 9th
10th 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 1.6 7.9 17.9 26.9 24.2 14.6 5.2 1.6 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-8 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
11-9 5.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.1
10-10 14.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 14.3
9-11 24.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 23.9
8-12 26.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 26.9
7-13 17.9% 17.9
6-14 7.9% 7.9
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%