Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.3 #319
Expected Predictive Rating -10.7 #324
Pace 66.1 #272
Improvement -1.2 #250

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #350 D- C+ F D F
Defense #212 C C F C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #225 1.09 #263 -2.5 #268
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #25 0.67 #284 +2.6 #62
Three Pointers 33% #329 0.94 #263 -5.4 #326
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #320 -5.2 #319
Freethrows 17.5 #181 76% #77 13.3 #142
Second Chance 26.2% #299 0.87 #341 0.23 #340
Turnovers 18.9% #304
Total Offense -8.2 #350

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 1.31 #330 -3.9 #303
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #350 0.70 #120 +2.9 #14
Three Pointers 47% #45 0.85 #25 +1.0 #145
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #174 +0.1 #173
Freethrows 17.2 #183 75% #296 13.0 #213
Second Chance 35.5% #330 1.22 #340 0.43 #349
Turnovers 17.1% #154
Total Defense -1.1 #212

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.9% #332 2.1% #335
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.7% #297 -2.2% #140
Possession Length 19.1 #336 16.3 #47
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #149 0.19 #255
Improvement -1.2 #268 +0.0 #191

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.5% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3.1% 4.7% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 28.9% 38.0% 15.8%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.7% 6.2% 17.2%
First Four1.5% 1.9% 0.9%
First Round1.2% 1.6% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 59.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 49 - 1110 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 205 @Valparaiso L 63-66 18%     -4.6   0 - 1 -2.7 -7.7 +5.0
  Fri, Nov 7 212 Nicholls St. W 65-57 37%     4.8   1 - 1 +2.0 -9.9 +12.0
  Tue, Nov 11 59 @Notre Dame L 58-78 3%     -7.4   1 - 2 -8.0 +1.1 -12.1
  Fri, Nov 14 22 @Kentucky L 53-99 1%     -26.6   1 - 3 -27.3 -8.6 -20.1
  Tue, Nov 25 253 @Central Arkansas L 60-81 25%     -16.0   1 - 4 -23.4 -8.1 -17.5
  Fri, Nov 28 3 @Purdue L 62-109 0.4%    -25.1   1 - 5 -20.9 -2.0 -17.6
  Sat, Dec 6 231 Lindenwood L 74-82 41%     0.8   1 - 6 0 - 1 -14.9 -2.9 -11.8
  Wed, Dec 10 263 Eastern Kentucky L 59-68 48%     -5.0   1 - 7 -17.9 -13.5 -5.4
  Sun, Dec 14 4 @Iowa St. L 53-78 0.4%    -15.0   1 - 8 +0.7 -7.1 +7.9
  Thu, Dec 18 270 SIU Edwardsville W 76-72 OT 49%     0.3   2 - 8 1 - 1 -5.0 +0.2 -5.3
  Thu, Jan 1 218 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59-68 20%     1.8   2 - 9 1 - 2 -9.3 -12.5 +3.2
  Sat, Jan 3 236 @Tennessee Martin L 61-65 23%     8.4   2 - 10 1 - 3 -5.4 -8.1 +2.5
  Thu, Jan 8 316 Tennessee Tech W 71-69 59%    
  Sat, Jan 10 229 Tennessee St. L 69-71 41%    
  Tue, Jan 13 357 Western Illinois W 68-60 76%    
  Thu, Jan 15 301 @Arkansas Little Rock L 65-69 34%    
  Thu, Jan 22 329 @Southern Indiana L 66-68 43%    
  Sat, Jan 24 304 @Morehead St. L 65-69 34%    
  Thu, Jan 29 236 Tennessee Martin L 64-66 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 218 Southeast Missouri St. L 68-71 39%    
  Thu, Feb 5 229 @Tennessee St. L 66-74 21%    
  Sat, Feb 7 316 @Tennessee Tech L 68-72 37%    
  Tue, Feb 10 357 @Western Illinois W 65-63 56%    
  Sat, Feb 14 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 68-66 56%    
  Thu, Feb 19 304 Morehead St. W 68-66 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 329 Southern Indiana W 69-65 65%    
  Thu, Feb 26 231 @Lindenwood L 67-75 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 270 @SIU Edwardsville L 61-67 28%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.5 5.1 1.1 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.8 6.2 2.0 0.1 14.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 5.4 7.3 2.6 0.2 16.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.6 6.5 2.6 0.2 16.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.4 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.9 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.4 7.8 11.8 14.6 15.6 14.4 12.1 8.3 4.9 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 76.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 36.9% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 9.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 35.5% 35.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2
14-6 1.0% 18.8% 18.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.8
13-7 2.3% 11.1% 11.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.0
12-8 4.9% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 4.5
11-9 8.3% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.4 8.0
10-10 12.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 11.8
9-11 14.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 14.2
8-12 15.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.5
7-13 14.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.6
6-14 11.8% 11.8
5-15 7.8% 7.8
4-16 4.4% 4.4
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 98.1 0.0%