Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.1 320
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 314
Pace 65.6 262
Improvement -1.9 263

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ 355 F D+ D+ C- D-
Defense C 196 C D- B D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 217 F+ 49% 356 -4.0 319
2 Pt. Jumpers 59% 19 D- 31% 348 +2.1 74
Three Pointers 31% 348 D 31% 306 -6.6 349
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.5 338 F+ -7.1 361
1st FG Attempt F 0.85 361
Second Chance D 26.0% 305 C- 1.00 215 D+ 0.26 298
Turnovers D+ 18.5% 284
Freethrows D+ 0.28 268 B- 74% 118 C- 0.21 234
Total Offense F+ -9.3 355

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 254 D 13.7% 318
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 174 D- 8.2% 333
Three Pointers B- 88% 101 F 3.0% 365
Total D+ 50% 294 F 8.6% 362

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 158 D 63% 309 +2.5 265
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 331 D+ 41% 293 -1.5 68
Three Pointers 45% 56 B+ 30% 42 -0.3 162
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 306 C -0.1 179
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 201
Second Chance D- 35.2% 337 D+ 1.10 281 D- 0.39 334
Turnovers B 18.9% 67
Freethrows D+ 0.33 274 F 77% 357 D 0.26 313
Total Defense C -0.8 196

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 58% 346 D 7.6% 315
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 230 A 10.6% 10
Three Pointers F+ 92% 101 D+ 0.4% 365
Total D- 64% 341 C- 4.8% 242

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.7 316 16.5 50
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 144 0.20 272
Improvement -1.2 #247 -0.7 #235

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 17% 30% 3%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 50.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 10
Quad 410 - 1010 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 160 @Valparaiso L 63 - 66 12% -5  4% 0 - 1 C -0 F -10 D+ F F A +10 A+ C- A
 Fri, Nov 7 264 Nicholls St. W 65 - 57 45% +5  78% 1 - 1 C -1 F -15 F C D A+ +14 A+ A C
 Tue, Nov 11 83 @Notre Dame L 58 - 78 4% -7  6% 1 - 2 D -10 D -4 C+ F+ D F+ -9 B F C
 Fri, Nov 14 25 @Kentucky L 53 - 99 1% -27  0% 1 - 3 F -27 F -12 D- F C+ F -16 F F A
 Tue, Nov 25 184 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 14% -16  0% 1 - 4 F -20 F+ -8 F+ D+ C+ F -13 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 8 @Purdue L 62 - 109 0% -25  7% 1 - 5 F -23 D- -6 B+ F F F -16 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 257 Lindenwood L 74 - 82 43% +1  50% 1 - 6 0 - 1 F+ -16 D -5 F B A F -11 D+ F D
 Wed, Dec 10 278 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 68 49% -5  6% 1 - 7 F -19 F -17 F D F+ C- -3 C D+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 7 @Iowa St. L 53 - 78 0% -15  13% 1 - 8 C -0 F+ -10 D- D+ D- A +9 A A B
 Thu, Dec 18 236 SIU Edwardsville W 76 - 72 OT 39% +0  45% 2 - 8 1 - 1 C- -3 C- -1 B C+ F C- -3 F A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 1 225 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 68 18% +2  49% 2 - 9 1 - 2 D -10 F -14 F+ F C+ B +4 B F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 215 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 65 17% +0  47% 2 - 10 1 - 3 C- -4 F+ -8 F F B- B +4 A+ F A
 Thu, Jan 8 319 Tennessee Tech W 71 - 61 61% -2  28% 3 - 10 2 - 3 C- -3 D+ -3 D- C+ B C+ +1 B- C- A
 Sat, Jan 10 250 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 41% +8  95% 4 - 10 3 - 3 C- -4 D -5 D+ C B C+ +1 C A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 362 Western Illinois W 57 - 55 84% +4  89% 5 - 10 4 - 3 F -19 F -24 F F F+ B+ +5 A F+ B
 Thu, Jan 15 301 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63 - 74 32% +4  80% 5 - 11 4 - 4 F+ -16 F+ -9 F A F D- -8 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 22 342 @Southern Indiana W 59 - 51 OT 47% -3  10% 6 - 11 5 - 4 C -1 F -19 F F D A+ +18 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 287 @Morehead St. L 68 - 73 29% -0  46% 6 - 12 5 - 5 D -9 D+ -3 F A F D- -7 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 215 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 34% -7  1% 6 - 13 5 - 6 D- -14 D -4 F C- A+ F -10 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 225 Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 77 37% -12  0% 6 - 14 5 - 7 F -25 F -13 D- D- F+ F -13 F A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 250 @Tennessee St. L 68 - 77 22% -3  8% 6 - 15 5 - 8 D -11 F+ -9 D+ B F C- -2 D+ A F
 Sat, Feb 7 319 @Tennessee Tech W 60 - 54 38% +7  94% 7 - 15 6 - 8 C -1 F -15 F F+ C- A+ +14 A F+ A+
 Tue, Feb 10 362 @Western Illinois L 70 - 79 67% -4  25% 7 - 16 6 - 9 F -24 F -13 F D- C- F -10 F D- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 72 54% +2  57% 8 - 16 7 - 9 D+ -5 C +1 F B A+ D -6 C- F+ D+
 Thu, Feb 19 287 Morehead St. W 69 - 68 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 342 Southern Indiana W 68 - 63 68%
 Thu, Feb 26 257 @Lindenwood L 67 - 75 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 236 @SIU Edwardsville L 58 - 67 20%
Totals 10 - 18 9 - 11 -10 F+ -9 B F+ D- C -1 D B- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ F+ D- D F+ 37% 59% 31% D- F D C- D+ D+ D+ B- C- C D D+ B+ C 39% 15% 45% D C D- D+ D- B D+ F D
0.95 49% 31% 31% -7 -1 0.85 26% 1.0 .26 18% .28 74% .21 1.10 63% 41% 30% 0 +1 1.03 35% 1.1 .39 19% .33 77% .21
Nov
4		 Valparaiso F A- C- F+ C+ 34% 47% 18% F D+ C F F F A+ A+ A+ A C- A+ A+ A+ 27% 9% 64% F A+ D+ C C- A F A+ F
0.90 69% 33% 29% 0 -4 0.95 31% 0.3 .09 29% .62 81% .50 0.94 58% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.66 34% 1.1 .36 20% .62 60% .37
Nov
7		 Nicholls St. F F F F F 40% 26% 35% D F D+ B C D A+ D+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 43% B+ A+ F A+ A C F B- F
0.93 47% 27% 27% -11 -1 0.79 32% 1.2 .38 23% .54 76% .41 0.82 63% 8% 19% -15 -1 0.69 33% 0.4 .13 16% .46 63% .29
Nov
11		 Notre Dame D F A+ C- B 20% 38% 42% F C+ B F F+ D D A C- F+ D- C+ A+ A- 39% 16% 45% D- B F C- F C C+ D C
0.95 44% 53% 32% +1 -4 0.98 28% 0.4 .13 18% .24 83% .20 1.28 68% 38% 27% -1 +1 1.02 53% 1.0 .53 16% .29 73% .22
Nov
14		 Kentucky F C F B- D+ 18% 47% 35% F D- F F F C+ B D B- F F F F+ F 50% 10% 40% F F F F F A B+ D+ B
0.78 56% 22% 35% -7 -5 0.78 13% 0.6 .08 16% .33 68% .23 1.46 80% 60% 40% +17 +2 1.40 57% 1.4 .79 19% .29 75% .22
Nov
25		 Central Arkansas F+ A- D F D- 33% 25% 42% D- F+ F A+ D+ C+ D A+ C+ F F A+ D F 36% 6% 57% F+ F F F F B C+ A- B-
0.95 69% 33% 25% -3 -1 0.94 17% 1.6 .28 19% .23 92% .21 1.28 82% 0% 37% +9 +2 1.23 35% 1.8 .62 19% .25 62% .16
Nov
28		 Purdue D- A+ A+ F A- 27% 31% 41% D+ B+ F F F F D C D+ F F C- F F 36% 25% 39% C+ F F F F B- C F D-
0.86 79% 50% 24% +3 -2 1.04 13% 0.8 .10 24% .16 67% .11 1.52 85% 43% 50% +20 -1 1.41 46% 1.5 .67 14% .29 89% .26
Dec
6		 Lindenwood D F+ F F F 61% 27% 12% C- F C+ A- B A D C+ D+ F F+ B+ A+ C 53% 14% 33% F D+ F F F D F+ F F
1.03 50% 19% 14% -14 +1 0.76 33% 1.2 .40 13% .29 72% .21 1.14 67% 29% 18% -5 +2 0.96 38% 1.4 .53 17% .39 78% .30
Dec
10		 Eastern Kentucky F D F D- F 39% 33% 28% D- F F B+ D F+ F+ A+ C- C- D- F A C 23% 13% 64% D- C D C D+ C C F D-
0.94 56% 20% 31% -8 -1 0.83 24% 1.1 .27 19% .27 86% .24 1.08 64% 67% 27% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.1 .38 17% .25 92% .23
Dec
14		 Iowa St. F+ F F C- D- 29% 33% 39% D+ D- D+ C- D+ D- C- B+ C A F F A+ A+ 42% 17% 42% C- A B+ A- A B F F+ F
0.75 43% 25% 32% -10 -2 0.78 23% 1.0 .23 26% .23 75% .17 1.11 75% 50% 20% 0 +1 1.04 34% 0.9 .31 17% .46 74% .34
Dec
18		 SIU Edwardsville C- A- B D+ B+ 34% 28% 38% D+ B C- B+ C+ F C- B- C C- C A+ F F 32% 22% 46% D F A A+ A+ C+ C F D
1.07 65% 43% 32% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.1 .34 22% .31 76% .23 1.01 56% 18% 48% +5 -1 1.10 22% 0.5 .11 20% .28 81% .23
Jan
1		 Southeast Missouri St. F F D+ B+ F 53% 18% 29% B- F+ F F F C+ C- C- C- B B+ A+ A A 65% 4% 31% F B D- F F D- C- A+ A
0.84 42% 38% 38% -7 +1 0.91 16% 0.4 .06 17% .38 73% .28 0.97 48% 0% 27% -11 +4 0.88 32% 1.9 .62 14% .33 45% .15
Jan
3		 Tennessee Martin F+ B D F F+ 18% 33% 49% F F D+ F F B- A D- B+ B A F A+ A+ 22% 15% 63% C+ A+ C+ F F A F F F
0.91 67% 31% 25% -7 -3 0.82 30% 0.5 .16 18% .42 65% .27 0.97 44% 67% 19% -13 0 0.76 34% 1.5 .50 27% .53 85% .45
Jan
8		 Tennessee Tech D+ C F C F 47% 17% 36% B D- C+ B- C+ B B- D C+ C+ C+ D- A B 33% 18% 49% C- B- C- C+ C- A F F F
1.14 59% 13% 35% -3 +1 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 13% .33 72% .24 0.98 54% 43% 26% -6 0 0.90 32% 1.0 .32 24% .44 90% .40
Jan
10		 Tennessee St. D F F A+ D+ 47% 21% 32% D+ D+ C C C B F A F C+ B+ F A- C 34% 25% 42% D+ C B- A+ A+ C+ F B- F
1.08 48% 27% 53% +2 +1 1.08 31% 1.1 .34 16% .19 82% .16 1.02 50% 54% 27% -3 -1 0.94 29% 0.6 .18 18% .39 73% .28
Jan
13		 Western Illinois F D- F F F 45% 34% 20% F F F+ F F F+ A+ B+ A+ B+ A B+ A+ A+ 57% 21% 21% F A F C- F+ B D F F
0.86 55% 20% 11% -15 -1 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 18% .42 78% .33 0.83 41% 30% 10% -19 +1 0.66 34% 0.9 .32 20% .34 83% .28
Jan
15		 Arkansas Little Rock F+ F C- A- F 31% 31% 38% F F D A+ A F F A+ D D- F B- C- D- 32% 30% 39% C- D- F D F C F F F
0.98 43% 36% 41% -1 -2 0.96 30% 1.6 .47 26% .21 80% .17 1.15 71% 31% 35% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.1 .47 19% .32 82% .27
Jan
22		 Southern Indiana F C- F+ F F 28% 50% 22% F F F C+ F D B B B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 18% 49% D+ A+ C- F F A+ F F+ F
0.82 57% 28% 18% -10 -5 0.72 18% 1.0 .18 18% .37 77% .29 0.71 38% 22% 8% -28 0 0.45 29% 1.1 .33 24% .49 70% .34
Jan
24		 Morehead St. D+ F F+ A+ F 45% 28% 28% D- F A+ C A F A+ A+ A+ D- D+ F+ F F 38% 43% 20% A F F D F A+ F F F
1.09 24% 31% 46% -12 0 0.77 51% 0.9 .49 19% .48 83% .40 1.17 60% 47% 50% +9 -3 1.15 52% 1.0 .52 27% .53 88% .46
Jan
29		 Tennessee Martin D B- F F F 38% 28% 34% D+ F D+ B- C- A+ A+ F A- F F F F F 34% 7% 59% F F D C D+ A+ F C+ F
1.01 65% 20% 22% -8 -1 0.83 30% 1.0 .30 12% .49 59% .29 1.12 71% 67% 42% +13 +1 1.32 39% 0.9 .36 30% .42 65% .27
Jan
31		 Southeast Missouri St. F F F A+ F+ 49% 20% 31% C D- F+ C D- F+ F C F F F A+ F F 43% 8% 49% F+ F D+ A+ A+ D+ A+ D- A
0.91 38% 30% 47% -6 +1 0.92 20% 1.2 .23 21% .29 73% .21 1.18 71% 25% 46% +13 +2 1.33 30% 0.6 .17 15% .20 73% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Tennessee St. F+ C- D B- D+ 47% 18% 36% C- D+ F A+ B F F F F C- F A- A+ D+ 43% 27% 29% D D+ A+ C A F F D+ F
0.99 57% 38% 38% +1 +1 1.07 23% 1.8 .42 25% .29 67% .19 1.12 77% 29% 20% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 10% .44 78% .34
Feb
7		 Tennessee Tech F D- F D+ F 39% 37% 24% F F F B- F+ C- C- B+ C+ A+ B- D+ A+ A+ 39% 13% 47% F+ A F C+ F+ A+ F F F
0.93 53% 28% 33% -6 -2 0.86 22% 1.3 .28 15% .29 81% .24 0.84 53% 40% 17% -14 +1 0.76 40% 1.0 .40 33% .46 85% .39
Feb
10		 Western Illinois F D A F F+ 28% 37% 35% F F F B D- C- F F F F F C+ F F 25% 35% 39% A F C+ F D- D+ F F+ F
0.97 56% 48% 25% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.2 .30 15% .23 57% .13 1.10 69% 33% 40% +5 -3 1.06 24% 1.3 .30 15% .43 73% .31
Feb
14		 Arkansas Little Rock C F F A F 46% 25% 29% D F A+ D- B A+ A+ B- A+ D A F C- D+ 33% 33% 33% C+ C- F+ D F+ D+ F B+ D-
1.17 41% 25% 43% -7 0 0.88 49% 0.8 .39 12% .51 73% .38 1.08 47% 47% 35% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 17% .32 61% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.3 0.3 5th
6th 0.8 1.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.4 8.6 22.5 12.6 0.7 44.7 7th
8th 6.7 24.8 14.4 1.3 47.2 8th
9th 3.6 2.3 0.1 6.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 10.6 35.7 37.0 14.7 1.9 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.9
10-10 14.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.5
9-11 37.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.3 36.7
8-12 35.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 35.5
7-13 10.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.6
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 8.8%