Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +2.0 129
Results Rating +1.7 131
Consistency 0.16 239
Pace 74.0 44
Improvement +2.0 115

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 170 D C B B- C+
Defense C+ 110 C B B- F+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 127 F+ 49% 353 -2.6 273
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 236 D+ 35% 276 -1.2 248
Three Pointers 41% 181 C 34% 198 -0.2 188
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 134 D -4.3 323
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 305
Second Chance C+ 31.5% 149 C- 0.99 247 C 0.31 171
Opponents' Steals B 8.0% 50
Other Turnovers B- 6.4% 73
Turnovers B 14.4% 46
Freethrows C+ 0.32 138 B- 75% 98 B- 0.24 111
Total Offense C -0.3 170

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 234 C- 11.4% 205
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 114 D+ 6.4% 274
Three Pointers B 89% 69 C+ 0.8% 162
Total C+ 58% 130 C- 6.1% 244


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 317 C+ 57% 139 -3.5 65
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 117 D+ 41% 292 +1.3 294
Three Pointers 44% 79 C 34% 165 +1.6 266
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 75 C +0.0 182
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 157
Second Chance B- 28.1% 94 B 0.93 43 B 0.26 49
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.7% 91
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 168
Turnovers B- 18.0% 97
Freethrows F 0.40 359 B 70% 49 F+ 0.28 354
Total Defense C+ +2.3 110

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 307 C+ 11.8% 138
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 299 D- 1.4% 345
Three Pointers C- 85% 203 D+ 0.5% 271
Total D+ 60% 288 D+ 4.5% 263

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 90 16.9 110
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 129 0.12 41
Consistency 0.14 287 0.10 28
Improvement +1.0 135 +1.0 131

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 146 129 110
Results Rating Rank 170 132 93
Conference Record 11 - 9 12 - 8 13 - 7
Conference Finish 4 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17% 19% 15%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round17% 19% 15%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Missouri St. (Away) - 54.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 34 - 76 - 11
Quad 412 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 310 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 70 90% +9  92% 1 - 0 C -0 D -6 F B+ C B +5 D+ D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 288 @Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 79 72% -0  39% 2 - 0 C+ +4 C -0 D+ F A+ B- +3 F A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 195 Tennessee St. W 95 - 82 75% +9  96% 3 - 0 B- +8 B+ +8 C- B+ A+ C -1 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 17 Vanderbilt L 78 - 83 7% -6  16% 3 - 1 B+ +13 C- -0 B- D D A+ +14 B A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 54 South Florida L 91 - 97 OT 21% +5  73% 3 - 2 C+ +4 C- -0 C C+ C- B+ +6 B- A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 92 Wichita St. W 75 - 70 34% +1  54% 4 - 2 B +11 A- +11 B- C A+ C+ +1 C A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 296 Evansville W 80 - 79 88% +3  55% 5 - 2 D -10 D+ -3 D+ D D- D- -6 F+ C- B
 Wed, Dec 10 186 @Marshall L 61 - 77 53% -7  24% 5 - 3 F+ -15 F -16 F F C+ C+ +1 B C F
 Fri, Dec 19 64 Tulsa L 81 - 82 35% +3  84% 5 - 4 B- +5 B- +4 C- B- A C+ +1 C A+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 191 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 78 54% -12  3% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -10 D -6 F C- C D+ -4 F A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 106 Sam Houston St. W 102 - 91 54% -1  33% 6 - 5 1 - 1 B+ +12 A+ +16 D+ A+ C- D -5 C C+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 222 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 61 79% +7  93% 7 - 5 2 - 1 C -2 D+ -4 F B- B B- +3 A- C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 174 @New Mexico St. L 64 - 80 50% -16  0% 7 - 6 2 - 2 D- -14 D- -8 F B+ A+ D- -7 C F+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 259 @UTEP W 68 - 56 67% +0  45% 8 - 6 3 - 2 B +9 D -5 F+ D B+ A+ +15 A A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 202 Missouri St. W 87 - 72 76% +6  72% 9 - 6 4 - 2 B +10 A +14 C+ A+ A D+ -3 B- D- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 156 Kennesaw St. L 65 - 81 68% -5  15% 9 - 7 4 - 3 F -19 F -15 F F A D+ -3 D+ A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 113 Liberty L 69 - 76 56% -5  10% 9 - 8 4 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -4 D C+ D C- -3 D+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 106 @Sam Houston St. L 58 - 73 32% -14  0% 9 - 9 4 - 5 D+ -8 F -13 F B+ F B +4 B+ F D-
 Wed, Jan 28 156 @Kennesaw St. L 69 - 72 46% +0  35% 9 - 10 4 - 6 C +0 D- -7 F B+ A A- +7 C A B-
 Sat, Jan 31 163 @Middle Tennessee W 65 - 60 47% +1  57% 10 - 10 5 - 6 B- +8 D -6 C- F B+ A+ +14 B- A+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 191 Jacksonville St. L 66 - 71 75% -1  32% 10 - 11 5 - 7 D -10 F -13 F F B B- +3 A+ F+ A
 Sat, Feb 7 193 Florida International W 80 - 70 75% -1  36% 11 - 11 6 - 7 C+ +5 B- +5 F B- A+ C+ +0 C B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 14 163 Middle Tennessee W 82 - 80 70% +3  68% 12 - 11 7 - 7 C -1 B- +4 B+ B- F D -5 C+ F C+
 Wed, Feb 18 273 @Delaware W 88 - 87 OT 69% -7  3% 13 - 11 8 - 7 C- -2 A- +11 C- A+ C+ F -13 D F F
 Sat, Feb 21 113 @Liberty W 94 - 73 34% +8  74% 14 - 11 9 - 7 A+ +27 A+ +19 B A+ A A +8 C- A+ A-
 Thu, Feb 26 174 New Mexico St. W 93 - 70 72% +21  99% 15 - 11 10 - 7 A +19 B- +4 A+ F A- A+ +13 A+ A- B
 Sat, Feb 28 259 UTEP W 97 - 65 84% +13  96% 16 - 11 11 - 7 A+ +23 A+ +16 A+ C- A+ B+ +6 A C- B
 Thu, Mar 5 202 @Missouri St. W 74 - 73 55%
 Sat, Mar 7 193 @Florida International W 81 - 80 54%
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 8 +2 C +0 C D C+ C+ +2 C B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C F+ D+ C D 40% 33% 41% C+ D C+ C- C B C+ B- B- C+ C+ D+ C C 33% 22% 44% B- C B- B B B- F B F+
1.08 49% 35% 34% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 14% .32 75% .24 1.05 57% 41% 34% 0 -1 1.01 28% 0.9 .26 18% .40 70% .22
Nov
3		 Tennessee Tech D F A F F 54% 26% 20% C+ F B- A- B+ C A+ B A+ B B F C+ D 30% 17% 53% C- D+ B F D+ A+ A- A+ A+
1.08 37% 46% 20% -13 0 0.76 33% 1.4 .46 14% .54 80% .43 0.92 50% 56% 32% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.3 .33 25% .21 50% .10
Nov
10		 Eastern Kentucky C B+ B+ F D+ 42% 27% 32% C- D+ D F F A+ B+ F C B- F F B- F 10% 42% 48% A+ F A A+ A+ B- F+ A- D+
1.15 68% 50% 26% +4 -1 1.08 28% 0.5 .14 4% .39 64% .25 1.05 100% 64% 32% +13 -5 1.19 24% 0.5 .12 19% .33 65% .21
Nov
16		 Tennessee St. B+ B A+ F D 68% 8% 25% A+ C- B- A- B+ A+ A+ C- A C A F F F 30% 28% 42% C+ F B A+ A+ B- F B- F
1.24 64% 75% 15% 0 +4 1.09 33% 1.3 .42 12% .47 72% .34 1.07 47% 50% 43% +5 -2 1.10 29% 0.4 .11 18% .54 74% .40
Nov
26		 Vanderbilt C- C+ F B+ C+ 38% 18% 44% B B- B+ F D D A+ C- A+ A+ D+ A+ D B+ 37% 20% 43% B- B A+ A A+ A+ F A F
0.97 58% 11% 36% -3 0 0.96 32% 0.6 .18 21% .52 73% .38 1.03 67% 20% 38% +2 0 1.06 20% 1.0 .20 21% .58 70% .41
Nov
27		 South Florida C- C- C+ B- C+ 31% 29% 40% D C D- A+ C+ C- A- C- B+ B+ A- A+ D- B- 47% 13% 40% B- B- A- A+ A+ C+ B- D+ C+
1.00 53% 39% 36% 0 -2 0.98 23% 1.3 .30 21% .39 68% .26 1.06 47% 22% 37% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .29 16% .34 77% .26
Nov
28		 Wichita St. A- F A A B- 40% 29% 31% C+ B- B D- C A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ B- B- D C- 31% 29% 40% A- C C- A+ A C- F F F
1.18 42% 50% 40% 0 -1 1.00 32% 0.8 .26 11% .41 78% .32 1.10 53% 36% 37% 0 -2 0.98 40% 0.7 .28 14% .48 81% .38
Dec
6		 Evansville D+ F F+ A+ D 45% 24% 31% B- D+ B+ F D D- A+ C- A+ D- D B- F F 12% 33% 56% A+ F+ F A+ C- B F A+ D+
1.10 44% 31% 53% +1 0 1.04 38% 0.6 .24 19% .39 74% .29 1.08 67% 35% 45% +9 -3 1.13 31% 0.8 .26 21% .40 57% .22
Dec
10		 Marshall F F+ F+ D- F 35% 27% 38% D+ F C F F C+ C+ C- C+ C+ B+ D C- B- 26% 40% 34% A+ B D B+ C F C A- B-
0.89 50% 29% 30% -8 -1 0.85 34% 0.4 .14 16% .36 71% .26 1.12 53% 43% 35% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .25 67% .17
Dec
19		 Tulsa B- F F A+ D+ 38% 13% 48% B- C- C+ A- B- A A+ A A+ C+ D F B- C- 29% 8% 63% B C A+ B A+ D F A F
1.14 40% 14% 44% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.3 .35 11% .38 79% .30 1.16 64% 75% 33% +4 +1 1.13 17% 1.2 .20 13% .52 72% .37
Dec
29		 Jacksonville St. D F F F F 31% 13% 56% C F A+ F C- C B- F C- D+ D- F F F 46% 3% 51% F+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ F C F
0.97 41% 29% 27% -13 +1 0.78 44% 0.6 .26 16% .36 67% .24 1.13 63% 100% 50% +16 +3 1.40 20% 0.6 .12 25% .75 69% .52
Jan
2		 Sam Houston St. A+ F F B- D 35% 13% 53% B D+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B- A+ D D- D+ C C- 33% 25% 43% B+ C D+ B+ C+ D+ C- B C
1.32 47% 29% 34% -5 +1 0.95 49% 1.5 .73 17% .42 74% .31 1.18 65% 40% 35% +3 -1 1.07 39% 0.9 .34 15% .29 68% .20
Jan
4		 Louisiana Tech D+ F F F F 23% 9% 68% C F D A+ B- B A+ A A+ B- B B+ A B+ 31% 37% 31% A+ A- C+ D+ C- F D- A+ B-
1.02 30% 25% 27% -15 0 0.73 28% 1.5 .40 15% .45 80% .36 0.94 50% 32% 25% -9 -3 0.78 33% 0.9 .29 14% .34 47% .16
Jan
8		 New Mexico St. D- F C+ F F 37% 30% 33% D+ F B B- B+ A+ C+ D+ C D- A+ C F C 28% 28% 43% C+ C F C+ F+ B F D F
0.97 15% 38% 22% -22 -1 0.56 36% 1.2 .44 8% .38 74% .28 1.21 31% 38% 45% 0 -2 0.98 44% 0.9 .41 17% .62 76% .47
Jan
10		 UTEP D F B- F+ F+ 41% 31% 27% D+ F+ B F D B+ C+ F D A+ F A+ A+ A- 17% 38% 45% A+ A C- A+ A+ A F F F
1.00 48% 44% 29% -5 -1 0.90 39% 0.7 .27 15% .38 59% .22 0.82 88% 22% 24% -8 -4 0.79 27% 0.4 .11 22% .42 77% .32
Jan
14		 Missouri St. A F A+ A+ C+ 38% 29% 33% B C+ B+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ D+ D F A+ B 24% 12% 63% D- B- D+ F+ D- C+ D+ F D-
1.32 50% 50% 44% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.5 .55 12% .50 83% .41 1.09 67% 50% 26% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.3 .43 18% .37 75% .28
Jan
17		 Kennesaw St. F F D B- F 37% 16% 47% C F C- F F A D- F F D+ A+ F F D- 27% 22% 51% A+ D+ B- A+ A+ D+ F F F
0.90 24% 33% 37% -11 +1 0.81 27% 0.5 .14 11% .36 65% .23 1.12 43% 45% 42% +4 -1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 15% .47 76% .36
Jan
21		 Liberty D+ F F A D 32% 21% 47% C- D C+ C+ C+ D A F B+ C- A+ A+ F D 33% 2% 65% B- D+ B- F C- B+ F D+ F
1.07 40% 30% 41% -3 -1 0.96 33% 1.3 .42 20% .33 65% .21 1.17 21% 0% 57% +10 +2 1.26 15% 1.3 .19 17% .45 71% .32
Jan
24		 Sam Houston St. F F F D- F 37% 14% 49% B F C A+ B+ F C+ B B- B C+ C A A- 49% 16% 35% D- B+ A F F D- F+ A+ A
0.87 44% 17% 29% -12 +1 0.79 29% 1.4 .41 28% .33 75% .25 1.09 56% 38% 28% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.6 .46 13% .34 40% .14
Jan
28		 Kennesaw St. D- F F D- F 40% 19% 40% C F B+ B B+ A C- A+ B+ A- A A+ F B- 59% 5% 36% F C B- A+ A B- F B+ F
0.97 26% 27% 30% -17 0 0.68 36% 1.1 .38 11% .40 88% .35 1.01 46% 0% 44% -3 +4 1.02 31% 0.7 .23 18% .52 63% .33
Jan
31		 Middle Tennessee D F B- B- C- 35% 19% 46% C- C- C- F F B+ F B F A+ C- F A+ B 40% 20% 40% D B- B A+ A+ B F A+ F
0.98 47% 40% 36% -2 0 0.98 24% 0.4 .10 12% .17 80% .14 0.91 63% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.5 .14 18% .53 55% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Jacksonville St. F C F F F 26% 22% 52% F+ F C- F F B B+ A+ A+ B- A+ F A+ A+ 56% 26% 18% B+ A+ F C F+ A F D F
0.92 57% 17% 25% -12 -1 0.76 27% 0.6 .16 14% .39 88% .34 0.99 41% 50% 14% -12 +1 0.79 37% 1.0 .37 22% .90 72% .65
Feb
7		 Florida International B- D F D- F 40% 12% 47% B- F A- D B- A+ F A+ D- C+ F A+ D C- 35% 31% 33% A C B- A- B+ B- D+ F F+
1.17 52% 14% 30% -8 +1 0.88 44% 0.9 .40 10% .21 85% .18 1.03 71% 20% 38% +1 -2 1.00 30% 0.9 .27 19% .34 79% .27
Feb
14		 Middle Tennessee B- B+ B- C+ B 40% 12% 48% B B+ D A+ B- F A+ A+ A+ D F D+ A+ C+ 34% 25% 41% C+ C+ F+ F F C+ B D+ B-
1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 +1 1.12 21% 1.5 .32 20% .56 88% .49 1.13 79% 43% 22% +1 -1 1.02 36% 1.2 .44 17% .22 69% .15
Feb
18		 Delaware A- C B- C- C- 34% 24% 42% C C- C A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ F F+ F C D- 33% 24% 43% B- D D+ F F F F D+ F
1.27 59% 42% 33% +1 -1 1.02 30% 1.6 .48 13% .51 81% .41 1.25 67% 55% 35% +7 -1 1.15 22% 1.7 .37 12% .55 79% .44
Feb
21		 Liberty A+ C- F A+ B- 47% 14% 39% B+ B B- A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A F F A C- 51% 2% 47% D C- A+ C- A+ A- F A+ F
1.36 54% 14% 50% +4 +2 1.14 34% 1.9 .66 13% .38 96% .36 1.05 78% 100% 29% +8 +3 1.24 4% 1.0 .04 17% .51 59% .30
Feb
26		 New Mexico St. B- C+ A- A+ A+ 42% 15% 42% B+ A+ F F F A- A- D- B A+ C- B+ A+ A+ 27% 23% 50% C- A+ A+ B- A- B F C- F
1.18 60% 44% 44% +8 +1 1.20 11% 0.3 .03 11% .44 71% .31 0.89 60% 31% 18% -13 -1 0.73 23% 0.9 .21 16% .52 74% .38
Feb
28		 UTEP A+ B A+ A+ A+ 49% 12% 39% A A+ F A+ C- A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ C- A+ A+ 19% 23% 57% C A B F C- B F B- F
1.35 64% 67% 45% +13 +2 1.31 17% 2.0 .33 12% .44 86% .38 0.90 44% 36% 26% -10 -2 0.79 22% 1.2 .27 19% .50 66% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 4.8 4.8 2nd
3rd 15.6 48.6 25.4 89.6 3rd
4th 5.7 5.7 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 21.3 48.6 30.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 30.2% 20.2% 20.2% 12.9 0.0 1.4 3.9 0.8 0.0 24.1
12-8 48.6% 17.0% 17.0% 13.4 0.3 4.5 3.3 0.1 40.3
11-9 21.3% 12.6% 12.6% 13.7 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 18.6
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 13.3 83.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.1% 100.0% 12.9 0.1 23.4 63.7 12.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.5%
Lose Out 6.7%