Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -17.8 362
Expected Predictive Rating -20.0 360
Pace 65.8 255
Improvement -2.0 266

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ 359 F D- C D+ D-
Defense F+ 354 F+ D- D C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 254 F 47% 362 -5.6 346
2 Pt. Jumpers 57% 24 D 33% 321 +1.9 79
Three Pointers 35% 306 F+ 29% 343 -5.7 339
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.2 326 F -8.1 364
1st FG Attempt F 0.83 363
Second Chance D 24.9% 327 D 0.93 313 D- 0.23 338
Turnovers C 17.1% 195
Freethrows C- 0.30 208 F+ 66% 345 D+ 0.20 273
Total Offense F+ -10.2 359

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 24% 365 D+ 12.3% 260
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 14% 327 D- 8.0% 331
Three Pointers D- 77% 324 C 0.9% 188
Total F 36% 365 D 7.1% 324

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 34 F+ 66% 352 +7.1 357
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 315 C 38% 190 -1.8 47
Three Pointers 39% 233 D 36% 290 +0.7 222
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 343 D- +4.9 344
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.14 349
Second Chance D 34.1% 318 D 1.13 313 D- 0.39 335
Turnovers D 14.3% 327
Freethrows C- 0.31 215 C- 73% 246 C- 0.23 226
Total Defense F+ -7.5 354

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 261 F+ 5.0% 355
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 168 C 4.8% 177
Three Pointers C 83% 146 D 0.2% 326
Total C- 58% 227 D- 3.1% 347

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.1 337 16.0 19
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 339 0.24 346
Improvement -1.0 #238 -1.0 #252

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 364 362 360
Conference Record 1 - 19 1 - 19 3 - 17
Conference Finish 11 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 99% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 42 - 192 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 234 @Radford L 75 - 80 7% -5  6% 0 - 1 D+ -6 B+ +7 D- A+ C F -14 F F F
 Fri, Nov 7 26 @Iowa L 58 - 77 0% -10  7% 0 - 2 C -0 D+ -3 D- D+ C C +0 F A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 331 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58 - 74 18% -7  4% 0 - 3 F -24 F -18 D- F F D- -7 F+ C+ C
 Fri, Nov 14 139 @California Baptist L 59 - 69 3% -6  2% 0 - 4 D+ -6 D -5 D+ F+ B C- -2 B+ C+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 238 Coastal Carolina L 64 - 84 16% -13  0% 0 - 5 F -27 F -16 F B D+ F -11 D- F+ C-
 Sun, Nov 23 295 North Dakota L 69 - 78 25% +1  51% 0 - 6 F -20 F -17 D D F+ C- -3 F B B
 Tue, Dec 2 194 @Drake L 57 - 108 5% -26  0% 0 - 7 F -50 F -14 F F B F -41 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 295 @North Dakota W 69 - 66 OT 12% +1  53% 1 - 7 C- -2 F -13 F A D A+ +11 A+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 260 @Lindenwood L 76 - 92 9% -13  1% 1 - 8 0 - 1 F -19 D -4 D C- B+ F -13 F F D-
 Mon, Dec 22 248 SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 66 17% +3  70% 1 - 9 0 - 2 D- -13 F -15 D F+ D- C+ +2 B+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 1 217 @Tennessee Martin L 60 - 67 6% +2  56% 1 - 10 0 - 3 D+ -7 D- -7 C- F D+ C -1 B- A F
 Sat, Jan 3 227 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 73 6% -9  4% 1 - 11 0 - 4 F -24 F -19 F F F D -6 F+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 247 Tennessee St. L 68 - 90 17% -14  0% 1 - 12 0 - 5 F -30 F -15 F D+ A- F -14 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 314 Tennessee Tech L 54 - 59 30% +2  68% 1 - 13 0 - 6 F+ -17 F -21 F F F B +3 B- B+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 320 @Eastern Illinois L 55 - 57 16% -4  7% 1 - 14 0 - 7 D -9 F -17 F D C- A- +7 A- B- C
 Sat, Jan 17 299 @Arkansas Little Rock L 79 - 86 12% -6  13% 1 - 15 0 - 8 D- -12 B- +4 D- D+ A+ F -16 F C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 286 @Morehead St. L 66 - 71 11% -1  23% 1 - 16 0 - 9 D -9 D- -8 F C A- C- -2 B+ F D
 Fri, Jan 23 341 @Southern Indiana L 64 - 96 21% -22  0% 1 - 17 0 - 10 F -41 F -16 F F A- F -24 F F+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 227 Southeast Missouri St. L 74 - 78 15% -2  21% 1 - 18 0 - 11 D -11 C- -1 D+ F A+ F+ -9 F C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 217 Tennessee Martin L 44 - 84 14% -21  0% 1 - 19 0 - 12 F -46 F -28 F F D F -22 F F F
 Thu, Feb 5 314 @Tennessee Tech L 72 - 97 14% -18  1% 1 - 20 0 - 13 F -31 C+ +3 C C- D+ F -37 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 247 @Tennessee St. L 56 - 83 7% -21  0% 1 - 21 0 - 14 F -29 F -20 F F C F+ -9 F A+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 320 Eastern Illinois W 79 - 70 33% +4  70% 2 - 21 1 - 14 C- -4 C- -1 C D A- D+ -3 D D+ D-
 Thu, Feb 12 299 Arkansas Little Rock L 58 - 77 26% -7  7% 2 - 22 1 - 15 F -30 F -24 F F A D -6 C- D F
 Thu, Feb 19 341 Southern Indiana L 70 - 77 40% +2  82% 2 - 23 1 - 16 F -22 D -5 B- B- F+ F -17 D F F+
 Sat, Feb 21 286 Morehead St. L 67 - 75 24%
 Thu, Feb 26 248 @SIU Edwardsville L 57 - 73 7%
 Sat, Feb 28 260 Lindenwood L 70 - 79 19%
Totals 2 - 26 1 - 19 -18 F+ -10 D- F D- F+ -8 F+ F+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ F D F+ F 36% 57% 35% D- F D D D- C C- F+ D+ F+ F+ C D D- 44% 16% 39% D- F+ D D D- D C- C- C-
0.94 47% 33% 29% -8 -1 0.83 25% 0.9 .23 17% .30 66% .20 1.19 66% 38% 36% +5 +1 1.14 34% 1.1 .39 14% .31 73% .22
Nov
3		 Radford B+ F A+ D+ D+ 37% 30% 33% F D- A+ A+ A+ C B+ F+ C+ F F F A+ F 41% 17% 41% C- F F F F F F A F
1.21 47% 50% 33% -1 -1 0.98 47% 1.5 .72 18% .39 65% .25 1.29 82% 57% 24% +7 +1 1.17 43% 1.2 .53 11% .56 65% .36
Nov
7		 Iowa D+ C F C+ D+ 28% 37% 35% F D- D C+ D+ C B+ A+ A C F B- F F 37% 11% 52% C- F A+ A+ A+ F+ C- C+ C-
0.92 58% 25% 33% -5 -3 0.86 21% 1.0 .21 22% .37 83% .31 1.22 82% 40% 42% +15 +1 1.35 15% 0.0 .00 11% .36 75% .27
Nov
11		 Cal St. Bakersfield F F C- A+ D 34% 34% 32% F D- C- F F F C F F D- C B- D D 46% 19% 35% F F+ F+ A C+ C D+ D- D
0.87 40% 40% 43% -1 -2 0.95 35% 0.6 .22 25% .36 56% .20 1.10 55% 33% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 19% .37 80% .30
Nov
14		 California Baptist D D A- F D+ 51% 28% 21% C D+ F B- F+ B A- C- B+ C- B- A+ A+ A- 42% 8% 50% D- B+ F A C+ F D- F F
0.94 50% 46% 20% -6 0 0.89 12% 1.0 .12 13% .38 71% .27 1.10 50% 25% 25% -11 +2 0.83 46% 0.7 .30 10% .35 80% .28
Nov
21		 Coastal Carolina F C F+ F F 17% 52% 31% F F C A+ B D+ B- C B- F C+ A+ F D- 27% 20% 54% D- D- F C+ F+ C- D- B- D
0.87 56% 32% 18% -11 -6 0.69 27% 1.3 .35 14% .33 71% .24 1.14 53% 18% 43% +2 -1 1.05 35% 0.9 .32 15% .32 70% .22
Nov
23		 North Dakota F F F A+ D+ 37% 17% 46% D D F A D F+ C F F C- D+ C F F 42% 27% 31% A F A+ F B B C F D-
0.94 41% 25% 48% +1 0 1.04 24% 1.4 .32 23% .37 52% .20 1.07 59% 36% 44% +4 -1 1.10 12% 2.0 .23 18% .33 85% .28
Dec
2		 Drake F F A F F 23% 42% 35% F F D- F F B A F B- F F F F F 31% 16% 53% D+ F D F F D+ A F B-
0.89 45% 45% 24% -6 -4 0.83 24% 0.6 .14 13% .38 62% .23 1.69 81% 75% 59% +33 0 1.69 29% 2.2 .65 13% .21 92% .20
Dec
13		 North Dakota F F F F F 54% 18% 28% C F A+ D+ A D A- A A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 48% 0% 52% F A+ D F F A+ F D+ F
0.95 33% 22% 14% -24 +1 0.56 48% 1.1 .52 22% .44 80% .35 0.91 50% 17% -17 +3 0.74 32% 1.3 .42 23% .45 72% .33
Dec
18		 Lindenwood D C+ F F D- 62% 15% 24% B+ D F A+ C- B+ A+ F C F D B F F 52% 19% 29% D F F F+ F D- F A+ F
1.00 62% 13% 23% -5 +2 0.96 21% 1.5 .32 15% .43 54% .23 1.21 63% 30% 40% +4 +1 1.12 39% 1.3 .49 16% .53 56% .30
Dec
22		 SIU Edwardsville F D D D+ D+ 39% 33% 28% D+ D F A+ F+ D- B+ F+ B- C+ B B+ B- B 27% 38% 36% A B+ C F F A+ F F F
0.86 50% 33% 31% -6 -1 0.87 14% 1.5 .21 18% .38 68% .26 0.93 50% 29% 31% -7 -3 0.82 28% 2.1 .60 24% .43 78% .34
Jan
1		 Tennessee Martin D- C+ F A+ B- 17% 36% 47% F C- A- F F D+ F B- F C D+ A+ F B- 50% 38% 12% B+ B- D+ A+ A F F C- F
0.94 63% 18% 45% +1 -4 0.98 41% 0.3 .13 20% .22 73% .16 1.05 62% 19% 40% -4 -1 0.90 38% 0.5 .21 11% .54 68% .37
Jan
3		 Southeast Missouri St. F F D F F 34% 27% 39% F+ F D- F F F A+ C- A+ D C- F B- D- 59% 11% 30% F F+ F+ F F C D+ C- D+
0.77 43% 36% 19% -15 -1 0.71 21% 0.7 .14 26% .54 73% .39 1.12 58% 60% 31% +1 +3 1.09 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 68% .24
Jan
8		 Tennessee St. F F+ F F F 71% 4% 25% A+ F D+ D+ D+ A- A+ C A+ F F+ B- D F 57% 17% 26% F F C- F F C- F A+ D
0.94 50% 0% 8% -17 +4 0.77 29% 1.0 .29 15% .56 74% .41 1.25 67% 33% 36% +5 +2 1.15 32% 1.7 .55 15% .38 65% .25
Jan
10		 Tennessee Tech F F+ D- A- F+ 35% 40% 25% F F C- F F F A+ F B B C A+ A+ B+ 55% 18% 27% F B- C+ A B+ D+ C A+ A
0.86 50% 31% 40% -3 -3 0.90 31% 0.7 .21 24% .46 55% .25 0.94 56% 22% 23% -9 +1 0.88 30% 0.8 .24 18% .27 50% .14
Jan
13		 Eastern Illinois F F F F F 57% 21% 21% C+ F C F+ D C- C A- B- A- C- A+ A+ A 45% 34% 20% C- A- C B+ B- C F D F
0.83 41% 30% 10% -19 +1 0.66 34% 0.9 .32 20% .34 83% .28 0.86 55% 20% 11% -15 -1 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 18% .42 78% .33
Jan
17		 Arkansas Little Rock B- A- B+ F D 39% 26% 35% F+ D- A- F D+ A+ A+ F+ B+ F F A+ F F 31% 26% 43% D F B F C- F C- F F
1.17 71% 43% 26% +2 -1 1.06 44% 0.7 .29 12% .39 65% .25 1.27 76% 14% 43% +6 -1 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 10% .25 100% .25
Jan
22		 Morehead St. D- F C C+ F 33% 25% 42% F+ F F A+ C A- F F F C- D+ A- A+ A- 48% 27% 25% D B+ F F+ F D F+ A+ B
1.03 35% 38% 36% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.4 .36 11% .23 46% .10 1.10 61% 31% 17% -7 0 0.88 50% 1.0 .52 16% .37 50% .18
Jan
23		 Southern Indiana F F+ F F F 42% 33% 25% F F F C F A- B+ D+ B- F D- F F F 42% 18% 40% D- F F D F+ C- B+ F C-
0.87 50% 24% 23% -12 -1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 12% .37 71% .26 1.31 60% 55% 42% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.9 .33 16% .26 81% .21
Jan
29		 Southeast Missouri St. C- D+ F B- D+ 35% 14% 51% C D+ D- F F A+ A- D- B F+ F A+ A- F 51% 7% 42% F F A+ F C+ B- F D+ F
1.07 53% 29% 36% -2 +1 1.00 22% 0.8 .16 10% .47 69% .32 1.13 82% 0% 28% +6 +3 1.19 18% 1.8 .32 19% .59 70% .41
Jan
31		 Tennessee Martin F F D+ D- F 37% 14% 49% B+ F F F F D B- D+ C+ F F+ F C+ F 51% 8% 42% F F F F F F C+ F D+
0.68 25% 33% 29% -17 +1 0.70 18% 0.3 .06 22% .35 67% .24 1.30 67% 50% 32% +4 +3 1.15 48% 1.3 .63 14% .30 76% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Tennessee Tech C+ F+ C+ A+ B- 26% 32% 43% F C D+ C C- D+ C+ B+ B F D+ F F F 35% 14% 51% D- F F D+ F F D C- D
1.16 50% 40% 45% +6 -2 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 16% .31 81% .25 1.57 61% 57% 58% +22 +1 1.47 50% 1.1 .54 13% .32 76% .24
Feb
7		 Tennessee St. F F C- F F 35% 24% 41% F F D F F C B- C- C+ F+ F C+ A- F 45% 29% 26% D F D+ A+ A+ F A F B-
0.82 47% 42% 20% -11 -1 0.78 26% 0.6 .16 19% .40 73% .29 1.22 85% 35% 27% +8 -1 1.17 33% 0.4 .12 12% .20 92% .18
Feb
10		 Eastern Illinois C- A- F+ A B 25% 35% 39% F C F A- D A- A D A- D+ C- F A F+ 28% 37% 35% A- D C+ F D+ D- B A+ A
1.10 69% 33% 40% +5 -3 1.06 24% 1.3 .30 15% .43 73% .31 0.97 56% 48% 25% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.2 .30 15% .23 57% .13
Feb
12		 Arkansas Little Rock F B- F F F 43% 13% 43% C+ F F F F A C+ F F D B- A+ F C 42% 27% 31% F+ C- C F+ D F B- A+ B+
0.82 65% 14% 22% -8 +1 0.89 13% 0.6 .08 14% .30 44% .13 1.09 56% 19% 44% -1 -1 0.98 31% 1.2 .36 10% .20 54% .11
Feb
19		 Southern Indiana D F+ B- A+ B 46% 21% 33% C B- F A+ B- F+ F F F F D+ F A+ C- 57% 13% 30% F D F F F F+ F D+ F
1.06 50% 40% 50% +5 +1 1.13 23% 1.6 .37 20% .23 58% .13 1.17 56% 50% 14% -9 +2 0.89 52% 1.1 .58 14% .53 67% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 2.6 0.4 3.0 10th
11th 58.0 34.6 4.3 0.1 97.0 11th
Total 58.0 34.6 6.9 0.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 6.9% 6.9
2-18 34.6% 34.6
1-19 58.0% 58.0
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5%
Lose Out 58.0%