Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.8#356
Expected Predictive Rating-16.8#350
Pace64.3#314
Improvement+0.0#176

Offense
Total Offense-7.9#347
First Shot-4.8#311
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#346
Layup/Dunks-2.1#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#332
Freethrows-0.6#221
Improvement-2.6#343

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#342
First Shot-4.5#324
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#287
Layups/Dunks+0.3#161
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#191
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#314
Freethrows-1.1#270
Improvement+2.7#34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 4.1% 12.4% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 55.0% 33.4% 57.6%
First Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 10.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 46 - 156 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 261 @Radford L 75-80 15%     0 - 1 -7.5 +8.7 -16.9
  Fri, Nov 7 18 @Iowa L 58-77 1%     0 - 2 +0.5 +1.0 -2.6
  Tue, Nov 11 305 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 21%     0 - 3 -21.2 -13.6 -8.3
  Fri, Nov 14 134 @California Baptist L 59-69 5%     0 - 4 -5.3 -4.4 -2.1
  Fri, Nov 21 230 Coastal Carolina L 64-84 27%     0 - 5 -27.2 -12.5 -13.7
  Sun, Nov 23 333 North Dakota L 69-78 49%     0 - 6 -22.4 -12.6 -9.5
  Tue, Dec 2 143 @Drake L 57-108 6%     0 - 7 -46.8 -9.0 -42.7
  Sat, Dec 13 333 @North Dakota W 69-66 OT 27%     1 - 7 -4.4 -8.8 +4.3
  Thu, Dec 18 229 @Lindenwood L 76-92 12%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -17.1 -1.5 -14.4
  Mon, Dec 22 249 SIU Edwardsville L 61-66 29%     1 - 9 0 - 2 -13.0 -13.5 +0.5
  Thu, Jan 1 214 @Tennessee Martin L 61-74 11%    
  Sat, Jan 3 215 @Southeast Missouri St. L 66-79 11%    
  Thu, Jan 8 237 Tennessee St. L 67-73 28%    
  Sat, Jan 10 285 Tennessee Tech L 69-73 35%    
  Tue, Jan 13 325 @Eastern Illinois L 63-70 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 309 @Arkansas Little Rock L 64-72 22%    
  Thu, Jan 22 307 @Morehead St. L 64-72 22%    
  Sat, Jan 24 339 @Southern Indiana L 66-71 31%    
  Thu, Jan 29 215 Southeast Missouri St. L 69-76 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 214 Tennessee Martin L 64-71 26%    
  Thu, Feb 5 285 @Tennessee Tech L 66-76 18%    
  Sat, Feb 7 237 @Tennessee St. L 64-76 13%    
  Tue, Feb 10 325 Eastern Illinois L 66-67 47%    
  Thu, Feb 12 309 Arkansas Little Rock L 67-69 42%    
  Thu, Feb 19 339 Southern Indiana W 69-68 52%    
  Sat, Feb 21 307 Morehead St. L 67-69 42%    
  Thu, Feb 26 249 @SIU Edwardsville L 59-71 15%    
  Sat, Feb 28 229 Lindenwood L 69-76 28%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.6 0.2 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.2 4.3 1.1 0.1 13.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 6.1 8.3 6.1 1.6 0.1 24.9 10th
11th 1.3 4.7 9.7 11.3 9.9 5.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 43.1 11th
Total 1.3 4.8 10.1 13.5 16.5 15.6 13.5 9.9 6.8 4.0 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 43.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 18.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 7.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 14.5% 14.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.4% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-9 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
10-10 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
9-11 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.0
8-12 6.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.8
7-13 9.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.8
6-14 13.5% 13.5
5-15 15.6% 15.6
4-16 16.5% 16.5
3-17 13.5% 13.5
2-18 10.1% 10.1
1-19 4.8% 4.8
0-20 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%