IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.1	#324
Expected Predictive Rating	-5.8	#263

Pace	62.4	#336
Improvement	+0.0	#178

Offense
Total Offense	-4.7	#304

First Shot	-4.9	#310
After Offensive Rebound	+0.2	#169

Layup/Dunks	-8.8	#361
2 Pt Jumpshots	+6.7	#6
3 Pt Jumpshots	-0.9	#206
Freethrows	-1.9	#283

Improvement	+1.7	#61

Defense
Total Defense	-4.4	#312

First Shot	-2.4	#252
After Offensive Rebounds	-2.0	#306

Layups/Dunks	-4.5	#326
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.9	#266
3 Pt Jumpshots	+3.5	#64
Freethrows	-0.4	#220

Improvement	-1.6	#309

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.7%	7.0%	4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.8	15.9

.500 or above	30.9%	49.6%	25.9%
.500 or above in Conference	43.2%	54.3%	40.2%
Conference Champion	4.9%	8.0%	4.1%
Last Place in Conference	13.3%	9.2%	14.4%

First Four	3.2%	4.1%	2.9%
First Round	3.1%	4.9%	2.6%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 3	2 - 3	2 - 4
Quad 4	11 - 13	13 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	194	@ San Jose St.	W	59-55	16%	1 - 0			+5.6	-5.0	+11.2
Nov 06, 2024	258	@ Pepperdine	L	64-77	26%	1 - 1			-15.4	-7.5	-8.2
Nov 13, 2024	310	Green Bay	L	73-87	56%	1 - 2			-24.8	-4.8	-20.4
Nov 16, 2024	337	Central Arkansas	W	63-61	66%	2 - 2			-11.3	-5.9	-5.1
Nov 19, 2024	113	@ Northern Iowa	L	56-82	8%	2 - 3			-19.6	-7.3	-15.4
Nov 26, 2024	206	@ South Alabama	W	64-63	17%	3 - 3			+1.9	+3.1	-1.1
Nov 27, 2024	314	Incarnate Word	L	75-86	47%	3 - 4			-19.4	-2.1	-17.9
Dec 14, 2024	224	@ South Dakota	L	71-80	21%
Dec 17, 2024	330	Tennessee Tech	W	70-66	63%
Dec 21, 2024	354	@ Lindenwood	W	68-67	55%
Jan 02, 2025	273	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	62-68	28%
Jan 04, 2025	316	@ Eastern Illinois	L	64-67	37%
Jan 09, 2025	328	Tennessee Martin	W	70-67	62%
Jan 11, 2025	318	Tennessee St.	W	73-70	60%
Jan 16, 2025	266	@ Morehead St.	L	63-69	29%
Jan 18, 2025	293	@ Southern Indiana	L	67-72	31%
Jan 23, 2025	233	Arkansas Little Rock	L	66-68	42%
Jan 25, 2025	295	Southeast Missouri St.	W	69-68	52%
Jan 30, 2025	316	Eastern Illinois	W	67-64	59%
Feb 01, 2025	273	SIU Edwardsville	L	65-66	50%
Feb 06, 2025	318	@ Tennessee St.	L	70-73	39%
Feb 08, 2025	328	@ Tennessee Martin	L	67-70	41%
Feb 13, 2025	293	Southern Indiana	W	70-69	53%
Feb 15, 2025	266	@ Morehead St.	L	63-69	30%
Feb 20, 2025	295	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	66-71	33%
Feb 22, 2025	233	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	63-71	23%
Feb 25, 2025	354	Lindenwood	W	71-64	74%
Feb 27, 2025	330	@ Tennessee Tech	L	67-69	41%
Projected Record						12 - 16	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.4	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.0			4.9	1st
2nd												0.1	1.1	2.2	2.0	0.8	0.2	0.0					6.5	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.4	3.3	2.4	0.7	0.1							8.0	3rd
4th										0.1	1.3	3.8	2.8	0.7	0.0								8.6	4th
5th									0.0	1.0	4.0	3.6	0.6	0.1	0.0								9.4	5th
6th							0.0	0.0	0.8	4.0	4.3	0.9	0.1										10.0	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	3.8	5.0	1.5	0.1											11.1	7th
8th						0.0	0.7	3.4	4.8	1.9	0.1												11.0	8th
9th					0.1	0.9	3.3	4.7	2.2	0.2	0.0												11.5	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.3	1.4	3.3	3.7	1.7	0.2	0.0													10.6	10th
11th	0.0	0.3	0.9	1.7	2.5	2.0	0.8	0.2	0.0														8.3	11th

Total	0.0	0.3	0.9	2.0	4.0	6.3	8.6	10.8	11.8	12.2	11.3	9.9	7.9	5.9	4.0	2.3	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.0				Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
17-3	95.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
16-4	84.9%	1.0		0.8	0.2	0.0
15-5	62.4%	1.4		0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
14-6	30.8%	1.2		0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0
13-7	8.3%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-8	1.0%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-10	0.0%

Total	4.9%	4.9		2.7	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%																			0.0	0.0			0.0
18-2	0.2%		44.9%	44.9%		14.9															0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1
17-3	0.6%		39.2%	39.2%		15.1															0.0	0.1	0.0	0.3
16-4	1.2%		27.1%	27.1%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	0.9
15-5	2.3%		28.3%	28.3%		15.9																0.1	0.6	1.6
14-6	4.0%		21.0%	21.0%		16.0																0.0	0.8	3.2
13-7	5.9%		13.9%	13.9%		16.0																0.0	0.8	5.1
12-8	7.9%		9.0%	9.0%		16.0																0.0	0.7	7.2
11-9	9.9%		4.7%	4.7%		16.0																0.0	0.5	9.5
10-10	11.3%		2.6%	2.6%		16.0																	0.3	11.0
9-11	12.2%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.2	12.0
8-12	11.8%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	11.7
7-13	10.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
6-14	8.6%																							8.6
5-15	6.3%																							6.3
4-16	4.0%																							4.0
3-17	2.0%																							2.0
2-18	0.9%																							0.9
1-19	0.3%																							0.3
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		4.7%	4.7%	0.0%	15.9														0.0	0.1	0.5	4.2	95.3		0.0%