Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#215
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#237
Pace74.6#53
Improvement-1.0#255

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#220
First Shot-3.6#284
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#71
Layup/Dunks+0.1#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#70
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#314
Freethrows-1.2#258
Improvement+0.6#128

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#215
First Shot-1.2#211
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#220
Layups/Dunks+0.6#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#44
Freethrows-5.7#361
Improvement-1.6#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 20.0% 11.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 66.4% 71.5% 44.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.1% 88.8% 69.4%
Conference Champion 21.7% 24.5% 9.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 1.9%
First Four3.9% 3.8% 4.0%
First Round16.6% 18.1% 9.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 413 - 715 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 37 @Saint Louis L 67-92 4%     0 - 1 -8.9 -4.4 -2.2
  Fri, Nov 7 60 @Missouri L 84-89 8%     0 - 2 +6.8 +6.5 +0.8
  Sat, Nov 15 135 St. Thomas L 72-84 42%     0 - 3 -13.3 -8.2 -4.0
  Tue, Nov 18 18 @Iowa L 70-99 3%     0 - 4 -9.5 +8.4 -18.6
  Tue, Nov 25 257 Cal Poly W 84-68 57%     1 - 4 +10.6 +2.8 +6.7
  Wed, Nov 26 289 @Northern Arizona L 72-79 51%     1 - 5 -10.7 -1.0 -9.8
  Sat, Nov 29 144 Lipscomb L 77-88 44%     1 - 6 -12.8 -5.4 -6.1
  Sat, Dec 6 235 @Chattanooga W 74-70 42%     2 - 6 +2.6 +3.3 -0.5
  Thu, Dec 18 285 @Tennessee Tech L 74-85 51%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -14.6 -2.9 -11.3
  Sat, Dec 20 237 @Tennessee St. W 91-82 42%     3 - 7 1 - 1 +7.5 +12.0 -5.3
  Thu, Jan 1 325 Eastern Illinois W 77-68 81%    
  Sat, Jan 3 356 Western Illinois W 79-66 89%    
  Thu, Jan 8 339 @Southern Indiana W 78-73 67%    
  Sat, Jan 10 307 @Morehead St. W 75-73 57%    
  Thu, Jan 15 229 Lindenwood W 81-77 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 249 SIU Edwardsville W 74-69 66%    
  Tue, Jan 20 214 Tennessee Martin W 75-72 61%    
  Thu, Jan 22 309 Arkansas Little Rock W 78-70 77%    
  Thu, Jan 29 356 @Western Illinois W 76-69 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 325 @Eastern Illinois W 74-71 62%    
  Thu, Feb 5 307 Morehead St. W 78-70 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 339 Southern Indiana W 81-70 84%    
  Thu, Feb 12 249 @SIU Edwardsville L 71-72 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 229 @Lindenwood L 78-80 42%    
  Tue, Feb 17 214 @Tennessee Martin L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 309 @Arkansas Little Rock W 75-73 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 285 Tennessee Tech W 81-75 71%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.3 6.7 4.9 2.2 0.4 21.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.5 7.1 6.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.1 6.4 5.6 1.5 0.2 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.5 4.8 1.0 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.0 4.4 1.1 0.1 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.6 1.0 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.8 1.0 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.2 7.0 10.3 13.3 15.1 15.7 13.5 9.4 5.3 2.2 0.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-3 99.2% 2.2    2.1 0.1
16-4 92.2% 4.9    4.2 0.7 0.0
15-5 71.8% 6.7    4.2 2.2 0.3 0.0
14-6 39.3% 5.3    2.0 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-7 12.3% 1.9    0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.7% 21.7 13.1 6.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.4% 54.6% 54.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-3 2.2% 44.5% 44.5% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2
16-4 5.3% 42.7% 42.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.2 3.1
15-5 9.4% 38.0% 38.0% 15.2 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.1 5.8
14-6 13.5% 30.4% 30.4% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.2 9.4
13-7 15.7% 20.7% 20.7% 15.7 0.1 0.9 2.3 12.4
12-8 15.1% 13.2% 13.2% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.7 13.1
11-9 13.3% 8.1% 8.1% 15.9 0.1 1.0 12.2
10-10 10.3% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6 9.7
9-11 7.0% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.3 6.7
8-12 4.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.1
7-13 2.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.2
6-14 0.9% 0.9
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 6.7 9.4 81.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.6 5.6 32.4 56.3 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%