Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.1 #233
Expected Predictive Rating -4.8 #241
Pace 73.0 #72
Improvement +0.2 #180

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #270 C- C+ C C- C+
Defense #180 C- C- B- F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #55 1.09 #262 +1.4 #128
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #210 0.79 #128 -0.3 #194
Three Pointers 38% #247 0.95 #267 -2.9 #285
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #231 -1.9 #230
Freethrows 0.31 #174 66% #343 0.20 #245
Second Chance 27.5% #268 1.21 #15 0.33 #128
Turnovers 17.3% #200
Total Offense -3.7 #270

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #49 1.14 #156 -2.6 #272
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #264 0.88 #339 -0.1 #190
Three Pointers 38% #254 1.07 #250 +0.3 #165
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #261 -2.3 #261
Freethrows 0.41 #362 75% #303 0.30 #363
Second Chance 28.5% #97 1.18 #344 0.34 #241
Turnovers 18.5% #88
Total Defense -0.4 #180

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #113 1.4% #297
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.7% #256 3.1% #238
Possession Length 16.7 #113 16.7 #95
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #256 0.20 #275
Improvement -0.7 #227 +1.0 #131

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 14.5% 9.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 80.3% 85.2% 55.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 100.0% 97.1%
Conference Champion 5.7% 6.6% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.9% 2.8% 3.4%
First Round12.4% 13.2% 8.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 414 - 815 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 25 @Saint Louis L 67 - 92 3% -10  0 - 1 -6 -3 D+ F+ A- -0 B C+ B
 Fri, Nov 7 53 @Missouri L 84 - 89 6% -2  0 - 2 +8 +8 A- C D +0 F A+ A
 Sat, Nov 15 122 St. Thomas L 72 - 84 37% -13  0 - 3 -13 -8 D- C C+ -3 F A- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 21 @Iowa L 70 - 99 2% -19  0 - 4 -9 +8 B A+ D -18 F+ F C
 Tue, Nov 25 263 Cal Poly W 84 - 68 57% +3  1 - 4 +10 +1 D+ C C+ +8 A+ F A-
 Wed, Nov 26 306 @Northern Arizona L 72 - 79 56% -7  1 - 5 -13 -6 F C A -7 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 186 Lipscomb L 77 - 88 52% -4  1 - 6 -16 -8 F D+ D -6 F+ C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 269 @Chattanooga W 74 - 70 46% -1  2 - 6 +1 +4 C+ B- D+ -3 F+ D- B-
 Thu, Dec 18 319 @Tennessee Tech L 74 - 85 60% -2  2 - 7 0 - 1 -18 -6 F B+ F+ -12 C F+ F+
 Sat, Dec 20 237 @Tennessee St. W 91 - 82 40% +10  3 - 7 1 - 1 +8 +9 A- A+ F -2 C- A- D-
 Thu, Jan 1 323 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 80% -2  4 - 7 2 - 1 -4 -7 F+ A+ A- +3 C- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 362 Western Illinois W 73 - 50 92% +9  5 - 7 3 - 1 +3 -3 C- A+ D+ +8 B+ A- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 334 @Southern Indiana W 84 - 76 65% +5  6 - 7 4 - 1 -0 +12 A+ F+ B+ -12 F F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 302 @Morehead St. L 69 - 71 54% +4  6 - 8 4 - 2 -7 +3 F+ C A+ -11 F C B
 Thu, Jan 15 241 Lindenwood L 76 - 88 64% -17  6 - 9 4 - 3 -20 -9 F B+ C -9 D F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 246 SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 68 65% -16  6 - 10 4 - 4 -21 -12 F+ D- F+ -10 F+ D- D+
 Tue, Jan 20 200 Tennessee Martin W 66 - 50 55% +18  7 - 10 5 - 4 +11 -1 C- A- C +12 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 294 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 65 74% +5  8 - 10 6 - 4 -6 -6 D- F B+ +0 B C+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 362 @Western Illinois W 78 - 74 82% +2  9 - 10 7 - 4 -10 +0 C+ D F+ -10 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 323 @Eastern Illinois W 77 - 59 61% +12  10 - 10 8 - 4 +11 +10 A+ F B+ +2 D+ C+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 302 Morehead St. W 82 - 70 75% +9  11 - 10 9 - 4 +1 +2 C+ A F -1 F+ C- B-
 Sat, Feb 7 334 Southern Indiana W 76 - 66 83%
 Thu, Feb 12 246 @SIU Edwardsville L 66 - 68 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 241 @Lindenwood L 77 - 79 41%
 Tue, Feb 17 200 @Tennessee Martin L 67 - 72 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 294 @Arkansas Little Rock W 73 - 72 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 319 Tennessee Tech W 81 - 72 79%
Totals 14 - 13 12 - 7 -4 -4 C- C+ C +0 C- C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.5 1.8 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 12.7 9.2 0.7 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 9.1 12.1 0.5 22.0 3rd
4th 0.1 3.2 13.8 2.2 19.3 4th
5th 0.6 8.7 6.1 0.1 15.6 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 6.4 0.7 10.3 6th
7th 0.3 1.9 0.6 2.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.5 5.9 19.3 31.2 27.6 13.2 2.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 72.4% 1.8    0.7 1.0 0.1
14-6 26.4% 3.5    0.5 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 1.2 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 2.4% 35.0% 35.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 1.6
14-6 13.2% 28.5% 28.5% 15.4 0.2 2.0 1.6 9.4
13-7 27.6% 15.7% 15.7% 15.7 0.1 1.3 2.9 23.2
12-8 31.2% 10.5% 10.5% 15.8 0.0 0.7 2.6 28.0
11-9 19.3% 6.5% 6.5% 15.8 0.3 1.0 18.0
10-10 5.9% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.6
9-11 0.5% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 15.6 86.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 14.6 4.7 34.1 57.6 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 0.3%