Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.3 #237
Expected Predictive Rating -5.2 #248
Pace 72.6 #80
Improvement -0.5 #211

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #266 C- C C C- C+
Defense #189 C- C- B- F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #65 1.10 #250 +1.4 #127
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #204 0.78 #132 -0.3 #194
Three Pointers 38% #249 0.94 #281 -3.1 #290
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #231 -1.9 #230
Freethrows 0.31 #180 66% #346 0.20 #247
Second Chance 27.3% #274 1.20 #19 0.33 #140
Turnovers 17.0% #177
Total Offense -3.7 #266

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #56 1.15 #168 -2.6 #272
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #254 0.85 #316 +0.1 #184
Three Pointers 39% #255 1.07 #255 +0.2 #172
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #261 -2.3 #263
Freethrows 0.41 #363 75% #307 0.31 #363
Second Chance 28.9% #106 1.17 #339 0.34 #245
Turnovers 18.5% #90
Total Defense -0.7 #189

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #117 1.3% #291
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.8% #260 3.3% #243
Possession Length 16.6 #110 16.8 #117
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #249 0.20 #271
Improvement -0.8 #233 +0.3 #171

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 14.6% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 72.7% 80.8% 49.8%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 99.3% 91.5%
Conference Champion 6.0% 7.7% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.6% 3.6% 3.6%
First Round11.8% 13.1% 8.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 414 - 815 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 25 @Saint Louis L 67 - 92 2% -10  0 - 1 -6 -3 D+ F+ A- -0 B C+ B
 Fri, Nov 7 54 @Missouri L 84 - 89 6% -2  0 - 2 +8 +8 A- C D +0 F A+ A
 Sat, Nov 15 135 St. Thomas L 72 - 84 38% -13  0 - 3 -13 -9 D- C C+ -4 F A- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 21 @Iowa L 70 - 99 2% -19  0 - 4 -9 +9 B A+ D -19 F+ F C
 Tue, Nov 25 264 Cal Poly W 84 - 68 56% +3  1 - 4 +10 +2 D+ C+ C+ +7 A+ F A-
 Wed, Nov 26 311 @Northern Arizona L 72 - 79 57% -7  1 - 5 -13 -6 F C A -7 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 179 Lipscomb L 77 - 88 50% -4  1 - 6 -15 -8 F+ D D -6 F+ C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 276 @Chattanooga W 74 - 70 47% -1  2 - 6 +1 +4 C B- D+ -3 F+ D- B-
 Thu, Dec 18 322 @Tennessee Tech L 74 - 85 61% -2  2 - 7 0 - 1 -18 -5 F B+ F+ -13 C F+ F+
 Sat, Dec 20 241 @Tennessee St. W 91 - 82 39% +10  3 - 7 1 - 1 +7 +9 A- A+ F -2 C- A F+
 Thu, Jan 1 321 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 79% -2  4 - 7 2 - 1 -4 -7 F+ A+ A +3 D+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 362 Western Illinois W 73 - 50 91% +9  5 - 7 3 - 1 +4 -2 C- A+ D+ +7 B+ A- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 333 @Southern Indiana W 84 - 76 63% +5  6 - 7 4 - 1 +0 +12 A+ D- B+ -12 F F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 296 @Morehead St. L 69 - 71 53% +4  6 - 8 4 - 2 -7 +3 F+ C A+ -10 F C+ B
 Thu, Jan 15 248 Lindenwood L 76 - 88 64% -17  6 - 9 4 - 3 -20 -9 F B+ C -9 D F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 247 SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 68 64% -16  6 - 10 4 - 4 -21 -12 F+ D- F+ -10 F+ D D+
 Tue, Jan 20 206 Tennessee Martin W 66 - 50 56% +18  7 - 10 5 - 4 +10 -1 D+ A- C +12 A+ C A+
 Thu, Jan 22 291 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 65 72% +5  8 - 10 6 - 4 -5 -6 D- F A- +0 B C+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 362 @Western Illinois W 78 - 74 80% +2  9 - 10 7 - 4 -9 +2 B- D F+ -11 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 321 @Eastern Illinois W 77 - 59 60% +12  10 - 10 8 - 4 +11 +10 A+ F B+ +2 D+ C+ B+
 Thu, Feb 5 296 Morehead St. W 78 - 71 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 333 Southern Indiana W 75 - 66 81%
 Thu, Feb 12 247 @SIU Edwardsville L 66 - 68 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 248 @Lindenwood L 77 - 79 41%
 Tue, Feb 17 206 @Tennessee Martin L 67 - 72 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 291 @Arkansas Little Rock W 73 - 72 51%
 Sat, Feb 28 322 Tennessee Tech W 80 - 71 79%
Totals 14 - 13 12 - 7 -4 -4 C- C C -1 C- C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.9 3.3 1.8 6.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 12.2 6.1 0.5 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 9.9 9.2 0.3 19.8 3rd
4th 0.0 3.7 12.0 1.4 17.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 9.3 5.4 0.0 15.6 5th
6th 0.3 4.4 7.6 0.4 12.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.2 1.2 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 2.5 9.6 22.4 29.6 23.7 9.6 2.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 78.4% 1.8    0.9 0.9 0.1
14-6 33.8% 3.3    0.5 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.9% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 1.4 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 2.3% 39.0% 39.0% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.4
14-6 9.6% 29.5% 29.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.2 6.8
13-7 23.7% 18.5% 18.5% 15.7 0.0 1.2 3.2 19.3
12-8 29.6% 10.9% 10.9% 15.8 0.6 2.6 26.4
11-9 22.4% 6.7% 6.7% 15.9 0.2 1.3 20.9
10-10 9.6% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 9.2
9-11 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 2.5
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 15.6 86.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 14.6 2.2 40.0 53.3 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%