Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #218
Expected Predictive Rating -4.3 #234
Pace 74.4 #52
Improvement +0.2 #169

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #257 D+ D B+ C+ B-
Defense #177 C- F C C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #31 1.05 #303 +1.5 #122
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.84 #75 +0.7 #141
Three Pointers 35% #308 0.89 #306 -5.4 #329
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #264 -3.2 #264
Freethrows 15.4 #283 69% #281 10.7 #289
Second Chance 30.3% #200 1.31 #5 0.40 #48
Turnovers 16.1% #145
Total Offense -3.1 #257

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #68 1.19 #206 -3.2 #282
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #146 0.79 #236 -0.7 #235
Three Pointers 36% #309 1.04 #211 +2.3 #101
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #231 -1.6 #233
Freethrows 25.2 #361 76% #300 19.0 #362
Second Chance 28.0% #88 1.17 #313 0.33 #204
Turnovers 17.4% #136
Total Defense -0.2 #177

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #106 0.5% #215
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.4% #295 2.8% #232
Possession Length 16.5 #111 16.8 #116
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #236 0.21 #284
Improvement -0.9 #247 +1.1 #116

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.2% 22.9% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 73.6% 81.7% 58.8%
.500 or above in Conference 90.5% 94.9% 82.5%
Conference Champion 22.6% 28.1% 12.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four3.7% 3.6% 3.9%
First Round18.3% 21.1% 13.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 64.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 414 - 716 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 35 @Saint Louis L 67-92 4%     -10.0   0 - 1 -8.6 -5.4 -0.9
  Fri, Nov 7 55 @Missouri L 84-89 8%     -1.8   0 - 2 +7.4 +6.7 +1.2
  Sat, Nov 15 140 St. Thomas L 72-84 44%     -13.2   0 - 3 -13.8 -8.6 -4.1
  Tue, Nov 18 17 @Iowa L 70-99 3%     -19.4   0 - 4 -8.9 +8.5 -18.1
  Tue, Nov 25 249 Cal Poly W 84-68 57%     3.3   1 - 4 +10.8 +3.9 +5.8
  Wed, Nov 26 288 @Northern Arizona L 72-79 53%     -7.3   1 - 5 -11.1 -1.8 -9.4
  Sat, Nov 29 159 Lipscomb L 77-88 50%     -4.4   1 - 6 -14.2 -6.3 -6.5
  Sat, Dec 6 262 @Chattanooga W 74-70 48%     -0.6   2 - 6 +1.2 +3.0 -1.6
  Thu, Dec 18 316 @Tennessee Tech L 74-85 59%     -1.8   2 - 7 0 - 1 -16.8 -4.0 -12.4
  Sat, Dec 20 229 @Tennessee St. W 91-82 40%     9.7   3 - 7 1 - 1 +8.2 +11.4 -4.0
  Thu, Jan 1 319 Eastern Illinois W 68-59 80%     -1.8   4 - 7 2 - 1 -3.3 -7.4 +4.1
  Sat, Jan 3 357 Western Illinois W 73-50 89%     8.9   5 - 7 3 - 1 +6.0 -1.0 +8.8
  Thu, Jan 8 329 @Southern Indiana W 76-72 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 304 @Morehead St. W 74-72 56%    
  Thu, Jan 15 231 Lindenwood W 80-76 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 270 SIU Edwardsville W 73-67 71%    
  Tue, Jan 20 236 Tennessee Martin W 73-69 65%    
  Thu, Jan 22 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 77-69 76%    
  Thu, Jan 29 357 @Western Illinois W 74-66 76%    
  Sat, Jan 31 319 @Eastern Illinois W 71-68 61%    
  Thu, Feb 5 304 Morehead St. W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 329 Southern Indiana W 79-69 82%    
  Thu, Feb 12 270 @SIU Edwardsville L 70-71 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 231 @Lindenwood L 77-79 41%    
  Tue, Feb 17 236 @Tennessee Martin L 70-72 43%    
  Sat, Feb 21 301 @Arkansas Little Rock W 74-72 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 316 Tennessee Tech W 80-72 78%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 5.1 7.5 5.3 2.7 0.6 22.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 6.9 7.7 3.9 0.8 0.0 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 6.6 7.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 17.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.9 6.0 1.5 0.1 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.8 1.3 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 3.3 1.3 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.2 0.1 4.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 5.3 8.8 12.6 16.0 16.9 15.3 11.7 6.1 2.7 0.6 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
17-3 98.7% 2.7    2.5 0.2
16-4 86.7% 5.3    4.2 1.0 0.1
15-5 64.0% 7.5    4.3 2.7 0.4 0.0
14-6 33.3% 5.1    1.6 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-7 8.4% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.6% 22.6 13.3 6.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.6% 55.2% 55.2% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-3 2.7% 48.5% 48.5% 14.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.4
16-4 6.1% 42.7% 42.7% 14.8 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.3 3.5
15-5 11.7% 35.7% 35.7% 15.2 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.4 7.5
14-6 15.3% 29.7% 29.7% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.5 10.8
13-7 16.9% 20.4% 20.4% 15.7 0.0 1.0 2.4 13.4
12-8 16.0% 12.6% 12.6% 15.9 0.3 1.7 14.0
11-9 12.6% 8.2% 8.2% 15.9 0.1 0.9 11.5
10-10 8.8% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.3
9-11 5.3% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 5.0
8-12 2.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.5
7-13 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 0.4 2.1 7.6 10.0 79.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.0 19.8 59.3 19.8 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%