Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#295
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#273
Pace74.3#58
Improvement+1.1#114

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#330
First Shot-2.7#259
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#329
Layup/Dunks-5.9#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#185
Freethrows-4.0#349
Improvement+0.3#153

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#206
First Shot-1.1#207
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#184
Layups/Dunks-1.3#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#15
Freethrows-6.0#361
Improvement+0.8#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 15.8% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 40.9% 64.6% 37.9%
.500 or above in Conference 66.8% 79.2% 65.2%
Conference Champion 13.0% 19.9% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 2.5% 5.4%
First Four6.6% 7.4% 6.5%
First Round7.4% 12.3% 6.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 11.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 31 - 6
Quad 413 - 1014 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 71   @ Bradley L 60-88 6%     0 - 1 -17.0 -10.0 -6.7
  Nov 10, 2024 67   @ Vanderbilt L 76-85 5%     0 - 2 +2.9 +3.8 -0.5
  Nov 17, 2024 200   Chattanooga L 82-87 42%     0 - 3 -9.8 -5.0 -4.2
  Nov 21, 2024 337   @ Central Arkansas W 77-73 OT 51%     1 - 3 -3.3 -6.1 +2.5
  Nov 22, 2024 193   UNC Asheville L 64-72 30%     1 - 4 -9.4 -9.9 +0.4
  Nov 30, 2024 292   UMKC W 80-59 61%     2 - 4 +11.2 -3.2 +12.4
  Dec 05, 2024 105   @ Lipscomb L 60-78 10%     2 - 5 -10.9 -8.5 -2.6
  Dec 08, 2024 117   @ Murray St. L 63-76 11%    
  Dec 19, 2024 316   Eastern Illinois W 72-67 67%    
  Dec 21, 2024 273   SIU Edwardsville W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 02, 2025 318   @ Tennessee St. L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Martin L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 09, 2025 293   Southern Indiana W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 266   Morehead St. W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 14, 2025 233   Arkansas Little Rock L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 16, 2025 330   @ Tennessee Tech L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 23, 2025 354   @ Lindenwood W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 324   @ Western Illinois L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 30, 2025 328   Tennessee Martin W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 318   Tennessee St. W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 06, 2025 266   @ Morehead St. L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 293   @ Southern Indiana L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 11, 2025 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 330   Tennessee Tech W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 20, 2025 324   Western Illinois W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 354   Lindenwood W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 27, 2025 273   @ SIU Edwardsville L 67-71 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 316   @ Eastern Illinois L 69-70 47%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 3.4 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 13.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 4.3 4.1 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.9 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 1.4 4.7 4.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.2 1.0 0.1 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.5 1.1 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.7 1.5 0.2 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.2 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.2 8.4 9.9 11.8 11.9 11.8 10.3 8.4 5.9 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.3% 0.8    0.8 0.0
17-3 94.1% 1.9    1.8 0.2
16-4 83.5% 3.0    2.3 0.6 0.0
15-5 57.3% 3.4    1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-6 32.9% 2.8    1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1
13-7 7.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 8.2 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 59.7% 59.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.8% 45.3% 45.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
17-3 2.0% 39.1% 39.1% 15.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.2
16-4 3.6% 33.1% 33.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4
15-5 5.9% 30.7% 30.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.1
14-6 8.4% 25.3% 25.3% 16.0 0.1 2.1 6.3
13-7 10.3% 17.1% 17.1% 16.0 0.0 1.7 8.6
12-8 11.8% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2 10.5
11-9 11.9% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.7 11.2
10-10 11.8% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.4 11.4
9-11 9.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 9.6
8-12 8.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.3
7-13 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.2
6-14 4.2% 4.2
5-15 2.5% 2.5
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.6% 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 9.3 89.1 0.0%