Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.8 227
Expected Predictive Rating -4.5 239
Pace 72.2 82
Improvement +1.1 145

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 271 C- C+ C C- C+
Defense C 173 C- C- C+ F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 60 C- 55% 248 +1.5 119
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 146 C- 37% 198 -0.7 216
Three Pointers 38% 249 D+ 31% 283 -3.1 288
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 115 D+ -2.6 276
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 245
Second Chance D+ 27.5% 264 A- 1.22 16 C+ 0.34 116
Turnovers C 17.0% 186
Freethrows C+ 0.32 144 D- 67% 340 C- 0.21 210
Total Offense D+ -3.7 271

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 45 C+ 56% 133 +2.4 263
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 269 F 46% 352 +0.3 210
Three Pointers 38% 260 C- 35% 235 -0.7 148
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 307 C- +1.2 233
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 243
Second Chance B- 28.2% 92 F+ 1.18 346 C- 0.33 243
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 116
Freethrows F 0.40 357 D+ 74% 287 F 0.29 358
Total Defense C -0.1 173

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 107 17.0 125
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 261 0.20 264
Improvement -0.5 #216 +1.6 #96

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16% 22% 12%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 95% 100% 93%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 10% 29% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 3% 4%
First Round14% 21% 10%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 34.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 414 - 816 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 22 @Saint Louis L 67 - 92 2% -10  22% 0 - 1 D+ -5 D -5 D+ F+ A- B- +2 B C+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 54 @Missouri L 84 - 89 6% -2  32% 0 - 2 B +9 B- +5 A- C+ D- B +4 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 122 St. Thomas L 72 - 84 36% -13  0% 0 - 3 D- -12 F -12 F+ C C+ C+ +0 F A A+
 Tue, Nov 18 28 @Iowa L 70 - 99 3% -19  0% 0 - 4 D -11 B- +4 B- A+ D- F -15 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 246 Cal Poly W 84 - 68 53% +3  38% 1 - 4 B+ +11 C- -0 D+ C+ C A +11 A+ F A
 Wed, Nov 26 313 @Northern Arizona L 72 - 79 58% -7  1% 1 - 5 D- -13 F+ -9 F C A D+ -4 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 194 Lipscomb L 77 - 88 55% -4  18% 1 - 6 F+ -16 F -10 F D+ F+ D+ -4 F+ C+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 293 @Chattanooga W 74 - 70 53% -1  22% 2 - 6 C -0 C +1 C+ B D- C -1 F D- B
 Thu, Dec 18 317 @Tennessee Tech L 74 - 85 62% -2  47% 2 - 7 0 - 1 F -18 F+ -8 F B+ F F+ -9 C D- F+
 Sat, Dec 20 250 @Tennessee St. W 91 - 82 42% +10  95% 3 - 7 1 - 1 B- +7 B- +5 A- A+ F C+ +1 C- A D-
 Thu, Jan 1 320 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 81% -2  37% 4 - 7 2 - 1 C- -4 F+ -10 F+ A+ A B+ +5 D+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 362 Western Illinois W 73 - 50 93% +9  80% 5 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +3 D -5 D+ A+ D A +10 B+ B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 342 @Southern Indiana W 84 - 76 70% +5  73% 6 - 7 4 - 1 C -1 B+ +8 A+ F B+ F+ -9 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 288 @Morehead St. L 69 - 71 52% +4  86% 6 - 8 4 - 2 D+ -6 C +1 D- C- A+ D- -7 F C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 257 Lindenwood L 76 - 88 67% -17  2% 6 - 9 4 - 3 F -20 F -12 F A- C D- -7 D F C
 Sat, Jan 17 235 SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 68 63% -16  0% 6 - 10 4 - 4 F -20 F -15 F D- F D- -7 F+ D C-
 Tue, Jan 20 206 Tennessee Martin W 66 - 50 57% +18  99% 7 - 10 5 - 4 B +10 D+ -4 D+ A- C A+ +15 A+ C A+
 Thu, Jan 22 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 65 76% +5  85% 8 - 10 6 - 4 D+ -6 F+ -9 D F B B- +3 B C+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 362 @Western Illinois W 78 - 74 84% +2  72% 9 - 10 7 - 4 D -10 C- -2 B- D F F+ -9 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 320 @Eastern Illinois W 77 - 59 62% +12  97% 10 - 10 8 - 4 B +11 B+ +8 A+ F A- B +4 D C+ B+
 Thu, Feb 5 288 Morehead St. W 82 - 70 73% +9  93% 11 - 10 9 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 B- A F B- +2 F+ C- B-
 Sat, Feb 7 342 Southern Indiana W 90 - 65 86% +5  53% 12 - 10 10 - 4 B +10 A +14 C- A+ A+ D+ -3 C D+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 235 @SIU Edwardsville L 56 - 74 40% -1  58% 12 - 11 10 - 5 F -19 F -12 D- F+ C+ D- -8 D+ F D-
 Sat, Feb 14 257 @Lindenwood W 73 - 61 44% +2  54% 13 - 11 11 - 5 B +10 D+ -4 D F C+ A+ +13 A- A+ F
 Tue, Feb 17 206 @Tennessee Martin L 67 - 71 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 301 @Arkansas Little Rock W 73 - 72 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 317 Tennessee Tech W 80 - 71 80%
Totals 15 - 12 13 - 6 -4 D+ -4 B D+ C+ C +0 D+ D- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C- D+ D+ 43% 40% 38% C+ C- D+ A- C+ C C+ D- C- C C+ F C- C- 44% 18% 38% D C- B- F+ C- C+ F D+ F
1.03 55% 37% 31% -3 +1 0.98 28% 1.2 .34 17% .32 67% .21 1.09 56% 46% 35% +1 +1 1.06 28% 1.2 .33 18% .40 74% .24
Nov
3		 Saint Louis D C D F+ C 25% 42% 32% F D+ F D- F+ A- A- D B B- F+ B A- B+ 49% 5% 46% C- B F+ A C+ B+ D F F+
0.87 53% 32% 26% -7 -4 0.80 15% 0.7 .11 12% .38 69% .26 1.19 71% 33% 31% +4 +3 1.16 39% 0.9 .33 19% .34 81% .27
Nov
7		 Missouri B- A- A+ C A 26% 31% 43% D A- A F C+ D- B+ A- A B F F D- F 41% 33% 27% A+ F A- A+ A+ A+ F A- F
1.09 64% 53% 35% +7 -2 1.11 38% 0.7 .26 21% .34 81% .28 1.15 75% 63% 38% +17 -1 1.33 31% 0.9 .28 25% .53 61% .33
Nov
15		 St. Thomas F D D- F+ F+ 46% 23% 32% C- F+ F A+ C C+ F F F C+ F A+ F F 49% 11% 40% D+ F A+ F A A+ F F F
0.94 54% 31% 28% -6 0 0.89 18% 2.0 .35 17% .19 58% .11 1.10 82% 0% 44% +14 +2 1.33 5% 2.0 .09 21% .43 85% .36
Nov
18		 Iowa B- D A+ C B- 46% 17% 37% B B- A- A+ A+ D- A F C+ F F F D- F 41% 14% 45% C- F D+ F F B- F C+ F
1.03 53% 57% 33% 0 +1 1.05 34% 1.5 .52 25% .41 57% .23 1.45 78% 67% 40% +16 +1 1.36 36% 1.8 .64 16% .68 74% .51
Nov
25		 Cal Poly C- C- A F D- 50% 7% 43% A D+ C+ C C+ C C- A+ B A A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% B+ A+ F F F A F F+ F
1.12 59% 50% 28% -3 +3 1.02 34% 1.1 .37 16% .27 88% .24 0.91 31% 14% 21% -23 0 0.57 38% 1.2 .45 25% .66 84% .56
Nov
26		 Northern Arizona F+ D+ F F F 59% 7% 34% A F D A- C A F F F D+ C+ D C+ C+ 49% 26% 26% D+ C C- F F C- F D- F
1.04 56% 25% 20% -9 +3 0.90 29% 1.3 .36 12% .21 54% .11 1.14 57% 42% 33% 0 0 1.02 25% 2.4 .61 16% .43 72% .31
Nov
29		 Lipscomb F D- B F F 43% 26% 30% C F C F+ D+ F+ A+ B+ A+ D+ C- C F F 43% 11% 45% C- F+ A F C+ B+ F B F
0.96 52% 43% 19% -8 0 0.85 32% 0.8 .26 21% .47 77% .36 1.10 61% 33% 42% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.3 .24 20% .40 73% .30
Dec
6		 Chattanooga C C+ D- B C+ 35% 19% 46% C- C+ C A B D- F F F C B- F F F 48% 22% 30% D F B F D- B D C- D
1.12 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 17% .16 56% .09 1.06 55% 50% 43% +5 +1 1.13 16% 1.8 .28 18% .31 76% .24
Dec
18		 Tennessee Tech F+ F D F F 38% 13% 50% B F B B B+ F A+ C+ A+ F+ C+ A+ F C 43% 24% 33% C- C C+ F D- F+ F F F
1.02 22% 33% 29% -18 +1 0.69 37% 1.3 .49 19% .53 77% .41 1.18 55% 18% 40% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.3 .39 15% .68 83% .57
Dec
20		 Tennessee St. B- B A+ A A 44% 13% 42% C A- C A+ A+ F A+ C+ A+ C+ D+ A F D+ 40% 36% 25% B- C- A B+ A D- F B- F
1.19 65% 67% 42% +12 +1 1.29 32% 1.7 .54 25% .50 76% .38 1.07 62% 26% 38% -1 -2 0.96 23% 0.9 .21 13% .54 72% .39
Jan
1		 Eastern Illinois F+ F F F F 65% 4% 31% A+ F+ D+ A+ A+ A C F F B+ A D+ F+ C 53% 18% 29% F D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F C+ F
0.97 48% 0% 27% -11 +4 0.88 32% 1.9 .62 14% .33 45% .15 0.84 42% 38% 38% -7 +1 0.91 16% 0.4 .06 17% .38 73% .28
Jan
3		 Western Illinois D D+ A+ D- D 59% 11% 30% A- D+ C A+ A+ D B D- C+ A A- C- A+ A- 34% 27% 39% C- B+ B A B+ A+ F F+ F
1.12 58% 60% 31% +1 +3 1.09 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 68% .24 0.77 43% 36% 19% -15 -1 0.71 21% 0.7 .14 26% .54 73% .39
Jan
8		 Southern Indiana B+ A- B A+ A+ 50% 24% 26% C- A+ F+ F F B+ A+ F C F+ C+ F B+ F 41% 14% 45% F F F F F A- F F F
1.20 68% 42% 54% +14 0 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 13% .46 54% .25 1.08 50% 71% 27% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.2 .41 21% .49 85% .42
Jan
10		 Morehead St. C B+ F F D- 41% 22% 37% D+ D- D+ B- C- A+ B D- C+ D- F F F F 41% 34% 24% B- F D B+ C+ B- F+ B- D-
1.14 65% 27% 28% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 8% .38 67% .25 1.18 71% 57% 40% +14 -2 1.27 38% 0.8 .29 20% .37 72% .27
Jan
15		 Lindenwood F F D- D+ F 50% 12% 38% B F C- A+ A- C B+ D- B- D- C A+ B- C- 61% 4% 35% F D D- F F C F C+ F
0.93 41% 29% 32% -11 +2 0.84 31% 1.4 .44 17% .39 65% .25 1.08 57% 0% 29% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.5 .51 20% .53 66% .35
Jan
17		 SIU Edwardsville F F A+ F F 45% 24% 31% B- F F A D- F A+ F A- D- A- F F D- 43% 24% 33% F F+ C+ F D C- D C- D
0.87 37% 50% 23% -12 0 0.79 20% 1.2 .23 20% .46 65% .30 1.07 45% 45% 47% +2 0 1.07 27% 1.3 .35 17% .32 71% .23
Jan
20		 Tennessee Martin D+ D- F+ C- D 27% 15% 58% C+ D+ B+ B+ A- C C F F+ A+ B- B+ A+ A+ 36% 8% 56% F A+ F A C A+ F A F
1.03 54% 29% 32% -4 0 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 19% .33 53% .17 0.78 54% 33% 20% -14 +1 0.78 46% 0.7 .31 33% .51 59% .30
Jan
22		 Arkansas Little Rock F+ B- D+ D- D- 43% 12% 45% C+ D F F F B A C A- B- A+ A- F B+ 37% 30% 33% D+ B A F C+ F D- D- D-
1.03 67% 33% 32% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.7 .14 16% .37 71% .26 0.96 35% 25% 44% -7 -1 0.85 22% 1.3 .27 12% .28 71% .20
Jan
29		 Western Illinois C- A+ F F C 51% 7% 42% A- B- F A+ D F A+ D A+ F+ C B+ D- F 35% 14% 51% F F B A- B F F D+ F
1.13 82% 0% 28% +6 +3 1.19 18% 1.8 .32 19% .59 70% .41 1.07 53% 29% 36% -2 +1 1.00 22% 0.8 .16 10% .47 69% .32
Jan
31		 Eastern Illinois B+ A F A+ A+ 43% 8% 49% B A+ D F F A- F D- F B A+ B F C- 49% 20% 31% F D A- F+ C+ B+ C- C+ C-
1.18 71% 25% 46% +13 +2 1.33 30% 0.6 .17 15% .20 73% .14 0.91 38% 30% 47% -6 +1 0.92 20% 1.2 .23 21% .29 73% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Morehead St. C- D- A A+ B- 51% 13% 36% B B- C A+ A F A- D+ B B- B F D+ F+ 48% 23% 29% F+ F+ A+ F C- B- B+ D B-
1.17 50% 50% 47% +5 +2 1.15 37% 1.4 .50 21% .40 68% .27 1.00 52% 64% 36% +4 0 1.10 24% 1.3 .32 20% .25 79% .20
Feb
7		 Southern Indiana A A- C F C- 53% 23% 23% C C- A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A F A- C+ 44% 18% 38% F+ C D+ D D+ C- F D- F
1.33 68% 36% 18% -1 +1 1.02 44% 1.6 .70 9% .52 88% .45 0.96 41% 44% 26% -11 +1 0.82 30% 0.9 .27 16% .41 70% .28
Feb
12		 SIU Edwardsville F F F A D- 29% 27% 45% D+ D- F C+ F+ C+ D+ F F D- B- F B C- 42% 26% 32% D- D+ D- F F D- D B- D+
0.85 36% 15% 41% -8 -1 0.84 20% 1.0 .20 15% .29 50% .14 1.13 52% 46% 31% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 15% .32 67% .22
Feb
14		 Lindenwood D+ A- F F D- 55% 15% 30% B D D F F C+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ F A+ A- 46% 23% 31% C A- A+ C- A+ F F A+ C-
1.01 69% 0% 21% -5 +2 0.96 26% 0.6 .15 17% .66 70% .46 0.84 42% 50% 19% -12 0 0.79 17% 1.1 .20 14% .40 56% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.8 9.3 10.1 1st
2nd 0.2 14.0 6.2 20.5 2nd
3rd 3.0 19.9 0.8 23.6 3rd
4th 0.2 13.4 7.7 21.4 4th
5th 2.3 13.7 0.7 16.7 5th
6th 4.6 3.1 7.7 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 7.2 33.4 43.1 16.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 57.1% 9.3    0.7 3.6 3.8 1.1 0.1
13-7 1.9% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 10.1% 10.1 0.7 3.6 3.9 1.5 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 16.3% 28.5% 28.5% 15.2 0.0 0.5 2.8 1.3 11.7
13-7 43.1% 15.8% 15.8% 15.7 0.1 1.7 5.0 36.3
12-8 33.4% 10.9% 10.9% 15.9 0.0 0.5 3.1 29.8
11-9 7.2% 7.5% 7.5% 15.9 0.1 0.5 6.7
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 15.6 84.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.6% 100.0% 15.2 0.2 10.8 61.2 27.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.5%
Lose Out 2.3%