Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.4 #259
Expected Predictive Rating -7.4 #288
Pace 73.6 #64
Improvement -3.6 #329

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #278 D+ B C D+ C+
Defense #227 D D C+ F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #51 1.06 #297 +0.9 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #172 0.82 #88 +0.7 #140
Three Pointers 36% #298 0.92 #294 -4.5 #319
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #260 -3.0 #259
Freethrows 16.2 #248 68% #300 11.1 #274
Second Chance 28.5% #244 1.31 #4 0.37 #78
Turnovers 16.3% #165
Total Offense -3.8 #278

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #51 1.19 #227 -3.7 #306
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #198 0.87 #330 -0.9 #257
Three Pointers 37% #295 1.07 #251 +1.3 #132
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #279 -3.3 #282
Freethrows 23.5 #361 77% #332 18.0 #362
Second Chance 29.7% #140 1.22 #346 0.36 #286
Turnovers 17.6% #111
Total Defense -1.6 #227

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #136 0.9% #258
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.6% #285 5.4% #278
Possession Length 16.7 #121 17.1 #151
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #226 0.20 #289
Improvement -2.1 #302 -1.5 #276

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 10.7% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 31.0% 43.5% 17.4%
.500 or above in Conference 64.7% 78.2% 50.0%
Conference Champion 1.8% 3.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four3.0% 3.3% 2.6%
First Round6.8% 9.3% 4.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 52.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 411 - 1013 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 26 @Saint Louis L 67 - 92 3% -10  0 - 1 -7 -3 D F A -1 B C A
 Fri, Nov 7 52 @Missouri L 84 - 89 5% -2  0 - 2 +9 +8 A+ C- F +1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 133 St. Thomas L 72 - 84 35% -13  0 - 3 -13 -9 F B- C+ -4 F A A+
 Tue, Nov 18 21 @Iowa L 70 - 99 2% -19  0 - 4 -9 +9 B+ A+ F -19 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 263 Cal Poly W 84 - 68 51% +3  1 - 4 +10 +4 C B- C +6 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 317 @Northern Arizona L 72 - 79 54% -7  1 - 5 -13 -5 F C A+ -9 C F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 167 Lipscomb L 77 - 88 44% -4  1 - 6 -15 -7 F D F -7 F A- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 254 @Chattanooga W 74 - 70 37% -1  2 - 6 +2 +3 C- B D -1 F F A-
 Thu, Dec 18 333 @Tennessee Tech L 74 - 85 60% -2  2 - 7 0 - 1 -19 -4 F A- F -14 C F F
 Sat, Dec 20 233 @Tennessee St. W 91 - 82 34% +10  3 - 7 1 - 1 +8 +10 A+ A+ F -3 C A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 314 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 74% -2  4 - 7 2 - 1 -3 -7 F A+ B- +4 D A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 358 Western Illinois W 73 - 50 87% +9  5 - 7 3 - 1 +5 -1 D+ A+ F +8 A- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 324 @Southern Indiana W 84 - 76 56% +5  6 - 7 4 - 1 +1 +10 A+ F B -9 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 296 @Morehead St. L 69 - 71 48% +4  6 - 8 4 - 2 -7 +3 F C A+ -10 F B- A-
 Thu, Jan 15 250 Lindenwood L 76 - 88 59% -17  6 - 9 4 - 3 -20 -9 F B+ D+ -9 D- F B
 Sat, Jan 17 262 SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 68 62% -16  6 - 10 4 - 4 -22 -13 F F F -10 F D C
 Tue, Jan 20 206 Tennessee Martin W 72 - 71 52%
 Thu, Jan 22 283 Arkansas Little Rock W 77 - 73 65%
 Thu, Jan 29 358 @Western Illinois W 73 - 67 71%
 Sat, Jan 31 314 @Eastern Illinois W 70 - 69 54%
 Thu, Feb 5 296 Morehead St. W 77 - 72 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 324 Southern Indiana W 77 - 69 77%
 Thu, Feb 12 262 @SIU Edwardsville L 68 - 71 39%
 Sat, Feb 14 250 @Lindenwood L 76 - 80 37%
 Tue, Feb 17 206 @Tennessee Martin L 69 - 74 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 283 @Arkansas Little Rock L 74 - 76 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 333 Tennessee Tech W 79 - 71 78%
Totals 12 - 15 10 - 9 -5 -4 D+ B C -2 D D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.3 1.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.8 1.1 0.1 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.0 2.7 0.3 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.8 5.9 0.8 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.5 4.8 8.6 2.0 0.0 16.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.8 9.6 4.1 0.1 18.0 6th
7th 0.3 3.8 9.2 5.2 0.6 0.0 19.0 7th
8th 0.4 2.5 5.5 4.1 0.6 13.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.9 0.1 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.9 10.6 17.6 21.0 20.1 14.0 6.9 2.3 0.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 83.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 39.3% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 8.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.3% 36.7% 36.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
14-6 2.3% 33.8% 33.8% 15.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.6
13-7 6.9% 24.9% 24.9% 15.6 0.0 0.7 1.0 5.2
12-8 14.0% 13.0% 13.0% 15.8 0.4 1.5 12.2
11-9 20.1% 7.8% 7.8% 15.9 0.2 1.4 18.6
10-10 21.0% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0 20.0
9-11 17.6% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.7 16.9
8-12 10.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 10.4
7-13 4.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.9
6-14 1.8% 1.8
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 15.7 92.0 0.0%