IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.8	#231
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.1	#94
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.2	#268

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.7	#187

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	15.3%	25.7%	14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.8	14.0	14.8

.500 or above	58.9%	84.2%	56.6%
.500 or above in Conference	74.6%	88.0%	73.4%
Conference Champion	16.2%	29.8%	14.9%
Last Place in Conference	2.8%	1.1%	2.9%

First Four	2.4%	1.5%	2.5%
First Round	15.4%	26.1%	14.5%
Second Round	0.5%	1.0%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 8.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 4	2 - 7
Quad 4	13 - 6	15 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	72	@ Saint Louis	L	64-79	8%
Nov 07, 2025	37	@ Missouri	L	65-85	3%
Nov 15, 2025	148	St. Thomas	L	73-74	45%
Nov 18, 2025	32	@ Iowa	L	66-87	3%
Nov 25, 2025	256	Cal Poly	W	82-81	54%
Nov 26, 2025	263	@ Northern Arizona	L	71-72	45%
Nov 29, 2025	188	Lipscomb	W	70-69	54%
Dec 06, 2025	125	@ Chattanooga	L	68-77	22%
Dec 18, 2025	328	@ Tennessee Tech	W	73-70	61%
Dec 20, 2025	259	@ Tennessee St.	L	74-76	45%
Jan 01, 2026	322	Eastern Illinois	W	72-63	77%
Jan 03, 2026	339	Western Illinois	W	73-63	82%
Jan 08, 2026	298	@ Southern Indiana	W	72-71	52%
Jan 10, 2026	293	@ Morehead St.	W	67-66	51%
Jan 15, 2026	327	Lindenwood	W	76-67	78%
Jan 17, 2026	240	SIU Edwardsville	W	70-66	61%
Jan 20, 2026	323	Tennessee Martin	W	75-66	77%
Jan 22, 2026	177	Arkansas Little Rock	W	70-69	52%
Jan 29, 2026	339	@ Western Illinois	W	70-66	63%
Jan 31, 2026	322	@ Eastern Illinois	W	69-66	59%
Feb 05, 2026	293	Morehead St.	W	69-63	70%
Feb 07, 2026	298	Southern Indiana	W	75-68	71%
Feb 12, 2026	240	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	67-69	41%
Feb 14, 2026	327	@ Lindenwood	W	73-70	59%
Feb 17, 2026	323	@ Tennessee Martin	W	72-69	59%
Feb 21, 2026	177	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	67-72	33%
Feb 28, 2026	328	Tennessee Tech	W	76-67	77%
Projected Record						14 - 13	12 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.6	1.9	3.5	4.3	3.4	1.9	0.5			16.2	1st
2nd												0.1	1.2	3.5	5.6	4.3	1.9	0.4	0.0				17.1	2nd
3rd											0.2	1.4	4.7	5.2	2.8	0.7	0.0						15.0	3rd
4th										0.1	1.6	4.3	4.4	1.8	0.3	0.0							12.5	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.1	3.9	3.8	1.2	0.1	0.0								10.2	5th
6th								0.1	1.0	3.3	3.0	1.0	0.1										8.5	6th
7th						0.0	0.0	0.8	2.5	2.7	0.7	0.0											6.9	7th
8th						0.1	0.6	1.9	2.1	0.6	0.0												5.4	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.5	1.4	1.3	0.4	0.0													3.7	9th
10th			0.0	0.2	0.5	1.0	0.9	0.2	0.0														2.9	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0															1.6	11th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.1	2.0	3.0	4.3	6.3	7.9	9.6	10.6	11.6	11.3	10.5	8.6	6.3	3.8	1.9	0.5				Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5
18-2	98.5%	1.9		1.8	0.1
17-3	88.4%	3.4		2.9	0.5	0.0
16-4	69.2%	4.3		2.9	1.2	0.2
15-5	41.2%	3.5		1.7	1.4	0.3	0.0
14-6	17.9%	1.9		0.5	0.9	0.4	0.0	0.0
13-7	5.5%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	16.2%	16.2		10.4	4.4	1.1	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.5%		66.7%	66.7%		12.3			0.0							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2
18-2	1.9%		62.1%	62.1%		13.0												0.0	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.7
17-3	3.8%		47.6%	47.6%		13.8												0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.3	0.0	2.0
16-4	6.3%		40.3%	40.3%		14.5												0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	0.8	0.2	3.7
15-5	8.6%		31.6%	31.6%		15.7													0.0	0.2	0.8	1.2	0.6	5.8
14-6	10.5%		24.9%	24.9%		17.2													0.0	0.1	0.5	1.3	1.1	7.9
13-7	11.3%		15.4%	15.4%		17.3														0.0	0.1	0.9	0.9	9.6
12-8	11.6%		9.5%	9.5%		18.2															0.0	0.4	0.9	10.5
11-9	10.6%		6.4%	6.4%		19.0															0.0	0.1	0.7	9.9
10-10	9.6%		3.4%	3.4%		18.0																0.0	0.3	9.2
9-11	7.9%		2.9%	2.9%		16.6																0.0	0.2	7.7
8-12	6.3%		1.3%	1.3%		16.0																	0.1	6.2
7-13	4.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.3
6-14	3.0%																							3.0
5-15	2.0%																							2.0
4-16	1.1%																							1.1
3-17	0.5%																							0.5
2-18	0.2%																							0.2
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		15.3%	15.3%	0.0%	15.8			0.0							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	2.0	3.6	5.2	4.9	84.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	8.8		2.4							97.6
Lose Out	0.0%