Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#304
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#295
Pace74.4#59
Improvement-1.7#289

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#249
First Shot-2.2#233
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#202
Layup/Dunks-2.9#274
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#179
Freethrows+2.6#45
Improvement-3.9#355

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#324
First Shot-1.3#221
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#345
Layups/Dunks+1.9#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#54
Freethrows-7.5#358
Improvement+2.2#33
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 13.1% 20.6% 6.7%
.500 or above in Conference 35.3% 41.4% 30.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 7.3% 5.2% 9.1%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 46.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 31 - 62 - 9
Quad 49 - 1011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 101   @ Missouri St. W 99-94 8%     1 - 0 +12.7 +18.2 -6.0
  Nov 13, 2021 236   Youngstown St. L 79-97 46%     1 - 1 -25.0 -4.6 -19.3
  Nov 19, 2021 228   Arkansas St. L 60-72 43%     1 - 2 -18.3 -12.1 -7.2
  Nov 26, 2021 351   @ Incarnate Word W 79-76 67%     2 - 2 -9.5 -3.0 -6.6
  Nov 27, 2021 269   Portland L 68-74 42%     2 - 3 -11.8 -10.6 -0.9
  Nov 28, 2021 192   Montana St. L 68-75 26%     2 - 4 -8.1 -13.4 +5.9
  Dec 08, 2021 237   Evansville L 66-67 46%    
  Dec 11, 2021 271   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-80 32%    
  Dec 15, 2021 146   @ Southern Illinois L 61-73 12%    
  Dec 18, 2021 229   @ Pepperdine L 73-81 23%    
  Dec 21, 2021 219   @ California Baptist L 72-81 21%    
  Dec 30, 2021 94   @ Murray St. L 64-81 6%    
  Jan 01, 2022 257   Austin Peay W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 06, 2022 57   @ Belmont L 70-89 4%    
  Jan 08, 2022 327   @ Tennessee St. L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 13, 2022 280   Tennessee Tech W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 15, 2022 324   @ SIU Edwardsville L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 20, 2022 327   Tennessee St. W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 22, 2022 350   @ Eastern Illinois W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 27, 2022 143   Morehead St. L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 29, 2022 324   SIU Edwardsville W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 03, 2022 343   @ Tennessee Martin W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 05, 2022 350   Eastern Illinois W 76-67 80%    
  Feb 10, 2022 257   @ Austin Peay L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 12, 2022 57   Belmont L 73-86 12%    
  Feb 17, 2022 280   @ Tennessee Tech L 73-78 35%    
  Feb 19, 2022 143   @ Morehead St. L 65-78 13%    
  Feb 24, 2022 343   Tennessee Martin W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 26, 2022 94   Murray St. L 67-78 18%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.8 5.6 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 16.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 6.6 6.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 19.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 7.7 6.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 19.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 6.8 4.8 1.0 0.1 15.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 5.2 3.2 0.6 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.3 1.9 3.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.6 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.4 6.4 9.9 13.0 15.2 15.1 13.1 9.8 6.4 3.5 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 94.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 47.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 11.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 11.1% 11.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.7% 7.5% 7.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.5
12-6 3.5% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.5
11-7 6.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.4
10-8 9.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.8
9-9 13.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.0
8-10 15.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.0
7-11 15.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.2
6-12 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.0
5-13 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.9
4-14 6.4% 6.4
3-15 3.4% 3.4
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%