Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.9 #251
Expected Predictive Rating -5.8 #256
Pace 72.9 #74
Improvement -1.8 #266

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #276 D+ C+ C C- C+
Defense #202 D+ D+ C F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #62 1.09 #266 +1.3 #132
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #198 0.79 #129 -0.1 #175
Three Pointers 37% #266 0.90 #316 -4.1 #313
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #263 -2.8 #261
Freethrows 0.31 #158 66% #344 0.21 #220
Second Chance 27.2% #272 1.32 #3 0.36 #97
Turnovers 16.4% #176
Total Offense -4.0 #276

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #65 1.18 #210 -3.1 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #243 0.86 #324 -0.1 #194
Three Pointers 39% #249 1.06 #252 +0.3 #165
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #274 -3.0 #274
Freethrows 0.41 #363 76% #338 0.31 #363
Second Chance 29.3% #125 1.20 #340 0.35 #270
Turnovers 17.0% #148
Total Defense -0.9 #202

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #126 1.2% #281
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.5% #295 4.5% #266
Possession Length 17.1 #144 17.1 #139
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #250 0.20 #285
Improvement -1.9 #285 +0.1 #185

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 13.8% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 57.7% 71.3% 40.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 97.3% 84.2%
Conference Champion 3.6% 5.8% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.4% 3.3% 3.6%
First Round9.4% 12.0% 6.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Away) - 55.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 413 - 914 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 26 @Saint Louis L 67 - 92 3% -10  0 - 1 -7 -2 D+ F+ A- -2 B- C B+
 Fri, Nov 7 56 @Missouri L 84 - 89 6% -2  0 - 2 +8 +8 A- C F +0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 137 St. Thomas L 72 - 84 37% -13  0 - 3 -14 -9 D- B- C -4 F A- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 23 @Iowa L 70 - 99 2% -19  0 - 4 -10 +9 B- A+ F+ -20 F F C
 Tue, Nov 25 271 Cal Poly W 84 - 68 55% +3  1 - 4 +10 +2 D+ C+ C +7 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 306 @Northern Arizona L 72 - 79 52% -7  1 - 5 -12 -6 F C- A -7 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 173 Lipscomb L 77 - 88 47% -4  1 - 6 -15 -7 F+ D+ D- -7 F B A+
 Sat, Dec 6 276 @Chattanooga W 74 - 70 45% -1  2 - 6 +0 +4 C B- D -3 F+ F+ B
 Thu, Dec 18 338 @Tennessee Tech L 74 - 85 63% -2  2 - 7 0 - 1 -19 -4 F B+ F -15 C F+ F+
 Sat, Dec 20 231 @Tennessee St. W 91 - 82 34% +10  3 - 7 1 - 1 +8 +10 A A+ F -2 C A D-
 Thu, Jan 1 312 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 76% -2  4 - 7 2 - 1 -3 -7 F A+ B +4 D A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 359 Western Illinois W 73 - 50 88% +9  5 - 7 3 - 1 +5 -1 D+ A+ D +8 B+ A A+
 Thu, Jan 8 324 @Southern Indiana W 84 - 76 58% +5  6 - 7 4 - 1 +1 +11 A+ D- B- -11 F+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 300 @Morehead St. L 69 - 71 50% +4  6 - 8 4 - 2 -7 +3 D- C- A+ -10 F B- B
 Thu, Jan 15 238 Lindenwood L 76 - 88 59% -17  6 - 9 4 - 3 -19 -9 F B+ C -9 D+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 263 SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 68 64% -16  6 - 10 4 - 4 -22 -13 D- D- F -10 F D C
 Tue, Jan 20 228 Tennessee Martin W 66 - 50 57% +20  7 - 10 5 - 4 +9 -2 D B- D- +13 B+ C A+
 Thu, Jan 22 281 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 65 68% +5  8 - 10 6 - 4 -5 -6 D F B- +1 B B- F
 Thu, Jan 29 359 @Western Illinois W 78 - 74 75% +2  9 - 10 7 - 4 -8 +2 B- D F -10 F A- F
 Sat, Jan 31 312 @Eastern Illinois W 69 - 68 55%
 Thu, Feb 5 300 Morehead St. W 77 - 71 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 324 Southern Indiana W 76 - 68 77%
 Thu, Feb 12 263 @SIU Edwardsville L 67 - 69 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 238 @Lindenwood L 76 - 80 37%
 Tue, Feb 17 228 @Tennessee Martin L 68 - 72 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 281 @Arkansas Little Rock L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 338 Tennessee Tech W 78 - 69 81%
Totals 13 - 14 11 - 8 -5 -4 D+ C+ C -1 D+ D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.6 2.1 0.9 3.6 1st
2nd 0.7 5.8 2.8 0.2 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 6.6 7.6 1.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 4.0 11.7 2.0 0.0 17.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 10.5 6.7 0.2 19.0 5th
6th 0.8 7.2 8.4 0.7 17.2 6th
7th 0.4 3.8 6.6 2.0 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.0 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.5 7.0 16.5 25.3 26.5 16.3 6.0 1.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 81.3% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 35.6% 2.1    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1
13-7 4.0% 0.6    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.0% 48.8% 48.8% 14.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
14-6 6.0% 32.0% 32.0% 15.4 0.1 1.0 0.8 4.0
13-7 16.3% 22.7% 22.7% 15.7 0.0 1.1 2.6 12.6
12-8 26.5% 9.7% 9.7% 15.9 0.0 0.4 2.2 23.9
11-9 25.3% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.2 1.6 23.5
10-10 16.5% 4.3% 4.3% 15.9 0.1 0.6 15.8
9-11 7.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 6.8
8-12 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 15.7 88.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.4 13.7 34.3 52.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%