SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#273
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#201
Pace66.8#243
Improvement-1.0#245

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#314
First Shot-9.9#360
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#12
Layup/Dunks-4.8#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#174
Freethrows-5.3#357
Improvement-1.1#267

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#202
First Shot-2.0#236
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#112
Layups/Dunks+4.7#51
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#269
Freethrows-4.7#357
Improvement+0.1#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 15.7% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 65.1% 73.8% 51.9%
.500 or above in Conference 73.7% 77.6% 67.6%
Conference Champion 17.4% 20.2% 13.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 2.4% 4.6%
First Four6.0% 6.1% 5.8%
First Round10.7% 12.6% 7.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 60.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 31 - 21 - 4
Quad 414 - 1016 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 39   @ Indiana L 61-80 4%     0 - 1 -4.2 -7.2 +3.8
  Nov 08, 2024 14   @ Illinois L 58-90 2%     0 - 2 -13.7 -4.5 -10.0
  Nov 12, 2024 191   @ Indiana St. W 77-72 23%     1 - 2 +6.7 +1.9 +4.7
  Nov 15, 2024 271   @ Western Michigan W 79-60 38%     2 - 2 +16.0 +7.1 +9.6
  Nov 16, 2024 345   Canisius W 76-58 72%     3 - 2 +5.8 -0.5 +7.1
  Nov 19, 2024 310   @ Green Bay L 57-82 45%     3 - 3 -29.8 -21.0 -8.3
  Nov 29, 2024 182   North Florida L 73-78 42%     3 - 4 -9.1 -7.1 -1.9
  Dec 08, 2024 270   Ball St. W 68-65 60%    
  Dec 19, 2024 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 65-70 32%    
  Dec 21, 2024 295   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 02, 2025 324   Western Illinois W 68-62 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 354   Lindenwood W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 07, 2025 316   @ Eastern Illinois L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 330   Tennessee Tech W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 16, 2025 318   @ Tennessee St. L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Martin W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 23, 2025 293   Southern Indiana W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 266   Morehead St. W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 30, 2025 354   @ Lindenwood W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 324   @ Western Illinois W 66-65 50%    
  Feb 04, 2025 316   Eastern Illinois W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 06, 2025 330   @ Tennessee Tech W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 13, 2025 328   Tennessee Martin W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 318   Tennessee St. W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 20, 2025 266   @ Morehead St. L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 22, 2025 293   @ Southern Indiana L 69-71 42%    
  Feb 27, 2025 295   Southeast Missouri St. W 71-67 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 233   Arkansas Little Rock W 68-67 53%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.1 4.2 4.2 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 17.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 4.6 4.8 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.2 4.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.7 4.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.2 4.1 1.2 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.0 1.1 0.1 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.8 1.3 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 1.4 0.1 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.2 0.2 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.2 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.6 9.2 11.0 11.8 13.0 11.3 9.7 7.0 5.1 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 99.7% 1.3    1.3 0.0
17-3 95.8% 2.7    2.5 0.3 0.0
16-4 83.1% 4.2    3.3 0.9 0.1
15-5 60.0% 4.2    2.5 1.5 0.3 0.0
14-6 32.4% 3.1    1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1
13-7 9.2% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.4% 17.4 11.3 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 71.1% 71.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 39.6% 39.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
18-2 1.3% 48.3% 48.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7
17-3 2.8% 46.7% 46.7% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 1.5
16-4 5.1% 37.0% 37.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.8 3.2
15-5 7.0% 32.2% 32.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 4.7
14-6 9.7% 26.1% 26.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.2 7.1
13-7 11.3% 17.3% 17.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.9 9.4
12-8 13.0% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4 11.6
11-9 11.8% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7 11.1
10-10 11.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.4 10.6
9-11 9.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 9.0
8-12 6.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.5
7-13 4.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.6
6-14 2.9% 2.9
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.0 9.7 86.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.6 6.7 36.7 50.0 6.7