SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#231
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#216
Pace65.4#288
Improvement-1.7#298

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#281
First Shot-1.8#226
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#314
Layup/Dunks-0.5#196
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#297
Freethrows-0.5#211
Improvement+0.4#148

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#159
First Shot+2.9#88
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#327
Layups/Dunks+8.4#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#279
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#260
Freethrows-2.1#303
Improvement-2.0#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.3% 20.0% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 80.4% 86.9% 69.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.7% 89.6% 73.1%
Conference Champion 25.8% 31.5% 15.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.4% 2.4%
First Four4.0% 4.2% 3.8%
First Round15.3% 17.9% 10.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Away) - 63.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 32 - 4
Quad 415 - 917 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 282 @Texas San Antonio W 77-60 48%     1 - 0 +13.6 +1.6 +11.4
  Mon, Nov 10 187 Indiana St. L 55-64 53%     1 - 1 -13.8 -18.9 +5.3
  Fri, Nov 14 130 @Drake W 61-59 19%     2 - 1 +7.3 +0.1 +7.5
  Mon, Nov 17 40 @Wisconsin L 69-94 5%     2 - 2 -10.3 +6.4 -18.1
  Fri, Nov 21 329 @Air Force L 63-77 61%     2 - 3 -20.8 -9.8 -11.3
  Sun, Nov 23 262 Alabama St. W 83-68 56%     3 - 3 +9.5 +9.9 +0.3
  Tue, Dec 2 342 @North Florida W 72-63 67%     4 - 3 +0.4 -2.0 +3.1
  Sat, Dec 6 244 Western Michigan L 73-83 64%     4 - 4 -17.7 -2.4 -15.6
  Thu, Dec 18 334 @Eastern Illinois W 68-64 64%    
  Mon, Dec 22 359 @Western Illinois W 70-63 76%    
  Thu, Jan 1 324 Southern Indiana W 74-66 78%    
  Sat, Jan 3 328 Morehead St. W 73-64 79%    
  Tue, Jan 6 235 Lindenwood W 73-70 62%    
  Thu, Jan 8 321 Arkansas Little Rock W 71-63 77%    
  Thu, Jan 15 246 @Tennessee Martin L 65-67 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 217 @Southeast Missouri St. L 69-73 37%    
  Thu, Jan 22 247 Tennessee St. W 72-68 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 267 Tennessee Tech W 73-68 66%    
  Thu, Jan 29 328 @Morehead St. W 70-67 60%    
  Sat, Jan 31 324 @Southern Indiana W 71-69 59%    
  Tue, Feb 3 235 @Lindenwood L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Feb 7 321 @Arkansas Little Rock W 68-66 58%    
  Thu, Feb 12 217 Southeast Missouri St. W 72-70 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 246 Tennessee Martin W 68-64 64%    
  Thu, Feb 19 267 @Tennessee Tech L 70-71 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 247 @Tennessee St. L 69-71 43%    
  Thu, Feb 26 359 Western Illinois W 73-60 88%    
  Sat, Feb 28 334 Eastern Illinois W 71-61 80%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 6.5 6.2 4.5 2.1 0.8 0.1 25.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.6 6.1 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.4 5.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.6 4.2 1.3 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.7 1.0 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 0.9 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.5 6.5 9.0 11.3 12.7 13.2 12.2 10.3 7.1 4.6 2.1 0.8 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8
18-2 99.7% 2.1    2.0 0.0
17-3 97.0% 4.5    4.1 0.4 0.0
16-4 86.6% 6.2    4.7 1.4 0.1
15-5 63.6% 6.5    3.7 2.5 0.3 0.0
14-6 33.4% 4.1    1.5 1.8 0.7 0.1
13-7 9.6% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.8% 25.8 17.2 6.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 60.5% 60.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.8% 55.8% 55.8% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4
18-2 2.1% 48.1% 48.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1
17-3 4.6% 40.1% 40.1% 14.7 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 2.8
16-4 7.1% 37.9% 37.9% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.8 4.4
15-5 10.3% 31.1% 31.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.7 7.1
14-6 12.2% 25.0% 25.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.2 9.2
13-7 13.2% 16.3% 16.3% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.8 11.1
12-8 12.7% 10.7% 10.7% 15.9 0.1 1.2 11.4
11-9 11.3% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.0 0.8 10.5
10-10 9.0% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.6
9-11 6.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 6.3
8-12 4.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 4.4
7-13 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
6-14 1.5% 1.5
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.6 9.4 82.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.3 7.7 50.0 42.3