SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.9#324
Expected Predictive Rating-10.5#307
Pace69.2#182
Improvement-0.2#193

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#321
First Shot-8.5#347
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#42
Layup/Dunks+1.5#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.0#349
Freethrows-0.5#214
Improvement-1.1#282

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#301
First Shot-1.7#233
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#314
Layups/Dunks-0.9#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#106
Freethrows-3.6#324
Improvement+1.0#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.6% 6.3% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 20.3% 24.7% 16.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.3% 10.5% 15.8%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Home) - 46.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 49 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 67   @ Marquette L 77-88 4%     0 - 1 -0.5 -2.1 +3.3
  Nov 12, 2021 355   @ Chicago St. L 56-67 64%     0 - 2 -24.5 -17.5 -7.8
  Nov 19, 2021 221   Niagara L 60-70 24%     0 - 3 -12.5 -8.0 -5.4
  Nov 20, 2021 236   @ Youngstown St. W 69-66 20%     1 - 3 +2.0 -5.6 +7.6
  Nov 21, 2021 323   St. Thomas L 73-86 50%     1 - 4 -22.9 -5.5 -18.3
  Nov 27, 2021 75   @ Creighton L 65-70 4%     1 - 5 +4.9 -1.9 +6.7
  Nov 30, 2021 336   @ Nebraska Omaha W 75-65 49%     2 - 5 +0.3 -4.9 +5.1
  Dec 04, 2021 181   @ Bradley L 55-80 13%     2 - 6 -22.8 -18.6 -2.5
  Dec 08, 2021 271   Purdue Fort Wayne L 72-73 47%    
  Dec 12, 2021 223   UMKC L 64-68 34%    
  Dec 21, 2021 122   @ South Alabama L 62-78 7%    
  Dec 30, 2021 57   Belmont L 67-82 8%    
  Jan 01, 2022 343   @ Tennessee Martin W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 06, 2022 257   @ Austin Peay L 65-73 24%    
  Jan 08, 2022 94   Murray St. L 62-74 13%    
  Jan 13, 2022 350   @ Eastern Illinois W 68-66 55%    
  Jan 15, 2022 304   Southeast Missouri St. W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 20, 2022 280   @ Tennessee Tech L 67-73 28%    
  Jan 22, 2022 143   @ Morehead St. L 59-74 9%    
  Jan 27, 2022 327   Tennessee St. W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 29, 2022 304   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 03, 2022 350   Eastern Illinois W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 05, 2022 94   @ Murray St. L 59-77 5%    
  Feb 10, 2022 343   Tennessee Martin W 74-68 72%    
  Feb 12, 2022 280   Tennessee Tech L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 17, 2022 327   @ Tennessee St. L 71-73 41%    
  Feb 19, 2022 57   @ Belmont L 64-85 3%    
  Feb 24, 2022 257   Austin Peay L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 26, 2022 143   Morehead St. L 62-71 22%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 9.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.2 4.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 14.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 7.4 5.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 17.7 6th
7th 0.3 3.5 8.5 5.4 1.1 0.1 18.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.8 4.2 0.7 0.0 17.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 12.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.7 1.2 0.1 7.3 10th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.0 6.5 10.6 14.2 16.1 15.4 12.9 9.1 5.8 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 85.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 30.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.7% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.5% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 1.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
11-7 3.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.1
10-8 5.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.8
9-9 9.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.1
8-10 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
7-11 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.4
6-12 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.0
5-13 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.2
4-14 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.6
3-15 6.5% 6.5
2-16 3.0% 3.0
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%