Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.0 214
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 176
Pace 63.6 315
Improvement -0.8 217

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 305 D+ C F C- C
Defense C+ 112 C+ C B C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 342 C- 57% 208 -4.8 336
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 248 B- 41% 77 -0.5 203
Three Pointers 51% 20 D+ 31% 290 +3.0 83
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.2 216 D+ -2.1 245
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 247
Second Chance B 35.1% 54 D- 0.90 331 C 0.32 162
Turnovers F 21.5% 360
Freethrows C+ 0.32 140 F+ 66% 349 C- 0.21 217
Total Offense D -5.0 305

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 150 C 11.1% 187
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 212 B- 3.7% 84
Three Pointers B+ 92% 31 C 1.0% 199
Total B 61% 66 B 4.6% 67

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 318 D 62% 298 -1.8 114
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 171 B 34% 59 -0.7 131
Three Pointers 46% 38 B- 32% 86 +1.2 246
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 100 C+ -0.8 146
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 131
Second Chance D+ 33.4% 295 B 0.93 50 C 0.31 181
Turnovers B 19.1% 61
Freethrows C- 0.32 245 B 70% 65 C- 0.23 212
Total Defense C+ +2.0 112

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 60% 351 C 11.1% 172
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 214 A+ 11.3% 8
Three Pointers D- 90% 31 B+ 1.9% 199
Total D- 65% 345 B- 6.9% 78

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 285 17.6 237
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 135 0.22 328
Improvement -2.7 #314 +1.9 #80

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28% 32% 23%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 74% 90% 52%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 2%
First Round28% 32% 22%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Away) - 58.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 31 - 23 - 4
Quad 418 - 520 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 124 @UNLV W 86 - 81 20% -1  43% 1 - 0 B +11 C +1 C C+ C+ A +9 B+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 114 @Bradley W 78 - 67 19% +2  64% 2 - 0 A- +17 C+ +2 A+ A- F A+ +14 A+ D A
 Tue, Nov 18 85 @Florida St. L 73 - 87 12% -6  12% 2 - 1 C- -4 D+ -3 B+ A F C +0 D+ B+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 334 Prairie View W 69 - 68 78% -2  38% 3 - 1 D -10 F -11 D- F F C+ +0 B+ C- C+
 Sun, Nov 23 244 Southern Miss L 60 - 70 56% -14  0% 3 - 2 F+ -15 C- -0 C+ D- C+ F -17 F F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 260 Charleston Southern W 73 - 56 71% +5  77% 4 - 2 B +8 C- -1 D D+ C A +11 A+ C B
 Sun, Dec 7 306 Alabama St. W 74 - 64 79% -0  34% 5 - 2 C -2 C- -1 F+ B+ C- C -0 F A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 10 128 @Southern Illinois L 54 - 83 22% -9  15% 5 - 3 F -24 F -14 F F F F -10 F F B
 Thu, Dec 18 250 @Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 46% +1  61% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D -9 D- -8 F C+ F+ C -1 D- B- D
 Sat, Dec 20 319 @Tennessee Tech W 86 - 62 65% +7  85% 6 - 4 1 - 1 A- +17 A+ +15 A+ F A- B +5 F A- A-
 Thu, Jan 1 362 Western Illinois W 67 - 60 94% -2  27% 7 - 4 2 - 1 D- -14 F -11 F F A- C- -2 F A- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 320 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 61 83% -0  41% 8 - 4 3 - 1 D -9 F -10 F A- F C+ +1 C+ A- C-
 Thu, Jan 8 288 @Morehead St. W 76 - 68 55% -3  28% 9 - 4 4 - 1 C+ +4 B +6 B+ B- D+ C- -2 C- F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 342 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 56 73% +2  52% 10 - 4 5 - 1 B- +8 B- +5 B- A+ F B +5 A- F+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 236 SIU Edwardsville W 65 - 59 66% +3  71% 11 - 4 6 - 1 C -1 D+ -4 D B+ D+ B- +3 A- C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 256 Lindenwood W 69 - 55 70% +10  96% 12 - 4 7 - 1 B- +6 F+ -9 C- C- F A+ +15 A+ B A
 Tue, Jan 20 226 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 66 41% -18  0% 12 - 5 7 - 2 F+ -17 F -19 F C F C+ +1 C+ F+ B-
 Thu, Jan 29 320 @Eastern Illinois W 76 - 68 66% +7  94% 13 - 5 8 - 2 C +1 B- +4 A+ C- F C- -3 C+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 362 @Western Illinois W 84 - 44 86% +21  98% 14 - 5 9 - 2 A+ +25 A- +10 C A+ C+ A+ +19 A- A+ A
 Tue, Feb 3 302 Arkansas Little Rock W 55 - 52 78% +1  69% 15 - 5 10 - 2 D -8 F -19 F+ D+ F A+ +11 B- C- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 342 Southern Indiana W 76 - 54 87% +13  91% 16 - 5 11 - 2 B- +7 C+ +3 C- A+ F B+ +5 A- B- B-
 Sat, Feb 7 288 Morehead St. L 55 - 61 76% -0  37% 16 - 6 11 - 3 F+ -16 F -19 F D- C C+ +1 B- C- B+
 Thu, Feb 12 256 @Lindenwood L 74 - 75 48% +0  47% 16 - 7 11 - 4 C- -3 C +0 A- C F D+ -4 F A A
 Sat, Feb 14 236 @SIU Edwardsville W 81 - 76 43% +2  53% 17 - 7 12 - 4 C+ +4 A +11 A+ C F D- -7 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 17 226 Southeast Missouri St. L 53 - 56 OT 64% -5  2% 17 - 8 12 - 5 D -10 F -24 F F C- A+ +15 A+ C A+
 Thu, Feb 19 302 @Arkansas Little Rock W 68 - 66 58%
 Thu, Feb 26 319 Tennessee Tech W 74 - 64 83%
 Sat, Feb 28 250 Tennessee St. W 75 - 70 68%
Totals 19 - 9 14 - 6 -3 D -5 D+ D+ C C+ +2 D+ F+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- B- D+ D+ 31% 31% 51% C D+ B D- C F C+ F+ C- C+ D B B- C+ 33% 21% 46% B- C+ D+ B C B C- B C-
1.02 57% 41% 31% -2 0 0.97 35% 0.9 .32 21% .32 66% .21 1.06 62% 34% 32% -1 0 0.99 33% 0.9 .31 19% .32 70% .22
Nov
4		 UNLV C F+ A+ C C- 30% 12% 58% C+ C C- A- C+ C+ A+ F A+ A D B- A A- 33% 19% 49% B- B+ B- F F A+ F F+ F
1.07 47% 50% 34% -1 +1 1.00 28% 1.3 .35 17% .73 56% .41 1.01 64% 38% 29% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.5 .47 27% .64 76% .48
Nov
12		 Bradley C+ B A+ A+ A+ 39% 9% 52% A+ A+ D A+ A- F C+ F D+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ 42% 18% 40% D- A+ C+ F D A F F+ F
1.06 65% 50% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 1.6 .42 31% .34 65% .22 0.91 63% 13% 6% -19 +1 0.64 26% 1.3 .33 19% .62 81% .51
Nov
18		 Florida St. D+ D- A+ A- A- 31% 18% 51% C+ B+ B+ A A F A+ B+ A+ C D+ A+ C- C- 45% 9% 46% D D+ C- A+ B+ F D+ A+ B
0.97 50% 63% 39% +6 0 1.13 37% 1.2 .43 34% .42 76% .32 1.15 64% 20% 35% +2 +2 1.09 33% 0.9 .29 8% .33 57% .19
Nov
22		 Prairie View F B- A+ F D- 40% 18% 43% C D- F F+ F F A+ D+ A+ C+ C+ C- A+ B 23% 45% 32% A+ B+ D- B C- C+ F D+ F
0.99 63% 57% 24% -1 +1 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 23% .56 70% .39 0.98 55% 38% 20% -7 -4 0.79 27% 0.9 .24 16% .53 77% .41
Nov
23		 Southern Miss C- D+ A+ C C+ 38% 20% 43% C- C+ C+ F D- C+ A F C F F B- F F 31% 33% 36% B F F D- F F+ B A+ A+
1.08 53% 63% 35% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.7 .20 16% .43 55% .23 1.25 71% 33% 38% +5 -2 1.07 42% 1.2 .48 14% .31 53% .17
Dec
2		 Charleston Southern C- B F F+ D- 27% 15% 58% C+ D A F D+ C A+ A A+ A F+ D+ A+ A+ 19% 10% 71% A- A+ D+ B- C B B- A B
1.11 62% 14% 29% -7 0 0.88 40% 0.7 .27 12% .55 78% .43 0.85 67% 40% 24% -9 0 0.83 31% 0.8 .26 21% .23 58% .13
Dec
7		 Alabama St. C- D A+ F F+ 28% 17% 54% D F+ A+ D B+ C- A- F F+ C F B F F 36% 28% 36% B- F A- A+ A+ C+ F+ A+ C-
1.12 54% 50% 28% -4 0 0.93 45% 1.0 .45 20% .43 48% .21 0.97 71% 31% 41% +6 -1 1.13 25% 0.4 .09 20% .36 58% .21
Dec
10		 Southern Illinois F F D- F F 28% 12% 60% C+ F C+ F F F D- D D- F F B F F 52% 22% 26% F F D+ F F B F+ C+ D
0.77 43% 33% 27% -11 0 0.80 29% 0.5 .16 27% .24 67% .16 1.19 73% 36% 38% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 19% .37 67% .25
Dec
18		 Tennessee St. D- F A+ F F 43% 16% 41% C- F B D+ C+ F+ A+ C- A+ C D D- C- F 41% 43% 17% A- D- A D B- D C- D+ D+
1.00 47% 57% 22% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 72% .38 1.10 64% 43% 33% +4 -3 1.06 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 78% .23
Dec
20		 Tennessee Tech A+ A A+ A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% D A+ D+ F F A- F+ A+ D B F F B- F 18% 24% 58% A F B A+ A- A- B- C B-
1.36 71% 55% 46% +17 -1 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 11% .23 85% .19 0.98 88% 55% 31% +7 -2 1.11 27% 0.8 .21 24% .25 75% .19
Jan
1		 Western Illinois F C F A- F 50% 38% 12% F F B F F A- A+ D- A+ C- F+ A+ F F 17% 36% 47% A+ F F A+ A- B+ A F+ B+
1.05 62% 19% 40% -4 -1 0.90 38% 0.5 .21 11% .54 68% .37 0.94 63% 18% 45% +1 -4 0.98 41% 0.3 .13 20% .22 73% .16
Jan
3		 Eastern Illinois F F A+ F F 22% 15% 63% D F C- A+ A- F A+ A A+ C+ F B- A+ C 18% 33% 49% A- C+ D A+ A- C- F A+ F
0.97 44% 67% 19% -13 0 0.76 34% 1.5 .50 27% .53 85% .45 0.91 67% 31% 25% -7 -3 0.82 30% 0.5 .16 18% .42 65% .27
Jan
8		 Morehead St. B B- A A- B+ 36% 18% 45% D+ B+ A D B- D+ A+ D- A+ C- D B A- C+ 47% 13% 40% F C- F B+ F+ B+ F A- D-
1.23 63% 50% 40% +8 0 1.18 46% 0.8 .39 16% .52 67% .35 1.10 62% 33% 28% -3 +2 1.00 51% 0.8 .40 21% .39 68% .27
Jan
10		 Southern Indiana B- D F A+ C+ 53% 14% 33% B+ B- A+ C+ A+ F A A- A+ B A+ B B A 30% 23% 48% C+ A- D F F+ B- F B- F
1.17 52% 17% 50% +2 +2 1.09 53% 1.0 .53 22% .41 80% .33 0.89 23% 30% 29% -16 -1 0.68 32% 1.0 .32 19% .57 62% .36
Jan
15		 SIU Edwardsville D+ C+ A+ F D 15% 17% 67% D+ D B B B+ D+ A+ F A+ B- A+ F A+ B+ 22% 41% 37% A+ A- B D+ C+ F C A+ A
1.02 57% 50% 26% -6 -1 0.87 38% 1.1 .41 17% .50 65% .32 0.93 42% 55% 15% -7 -4 0.80 25% 1.1 .27 9% .28 44% .12
Jan
17		 Lindenwood F+ B- C C- C 35% 26% 39% F+ C- C+ D- C- F F B- F A+ B+ C A+ A+ 18% 47% 36% A+ A+ C+ B B A F B F
0.97 63% 36% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 0.9 .31 24% .20 73% .15 0.77 50% 33% 13% -15 -5 0.62 29% 1.0 .29 24% .50 63% .31
Jan
20		 Southeast Missouri St. F D+ F+ F F 36% 8% 56% B- F A+ F C F A+ F C+ C+ C+ A- C+ C 27% 15% 58% B- C+ F B+ F+ B- C A+ B+
0.78 54% 33% 20% -14 +1 0.78 46% 0.7 .31 33% .51 59% .30 1.03 54% 29% 32% -4 0 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 19% .33 53% .17
Jan
29		 Eastern Illinois B- A A+ A+ A+ 34% 7% 59% B- A+ B F+ C- F A F C+ C- F A+ A+ C+ 38% 28% 34% D+ C+ D C D+ F F A+ F
1.12 71% 67% 42% +13 +1 1.32 39% 0.9 .36 30% .42 65% .27 1.01 65% 20% 22% -8 -1 0.83 30% 1.0 .30 12% .49 59% .29
Jan
31		 Western Illinois A- B- A+ D C- 51% 8% 42% A- C A+ A- A+ C+ C B- C A+ A+ C+ B A 37% 14% 49% F A- A A+ A+ A D- C D
1.30 67% 50% 32% +4 +3 1.15 48% 1.3 .63 14% .30 76% .23 0.68 25% 33% 29% -17 +1 0.70 18% 0.3 .06 22% .35 67% .24
Feb
3		 Arkansas Little Rock F A D+ D- F+ 20% 8% 73% D+ F+ C- D D+ F F+ F F A+ C C- A+ B 41% 30% 28% D B- B- D- C- A+ A+ C- A+
0.89 75% 33% 31% 0 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .29 27% .22 50% .11 0.84 58% 36% 23% -5 -1 0.89 28% 1.1 .31 27% .07 67% .04
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Southern Indiana C+ D A+ C- C+ 28% 26% 46% F C- A+ C+ A+ F C+ F F+ B+ B A+ B- B+ 23% 34% 43% A+ A- D A+ B- B- F D F
1.18 54% 50% 33% +2 -1 1.02 55% 1.0 .55 23% .35 53% .18 0.84 45% 13% 30% -14 -3 0.68 32% 0.6 .18 19% .42 68% .29
Feb
7		 Morehead St. F F D- F F 27% 7% 67% C F A- F D- C A+ D A+ C+ C+ A F C- 22% 41% 37% A+ B- D- B- C- B+ F F F
0.91 42% 33% 20% -19 +1 0.67 45% 0.6 .25 15% .49 68% .33 1.01 56% 29% 40% -1 -4 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 22% .38 89% .34
Feb
12		 Lindenwood C A- F A+ A- 42% 11% 47% C+ A- C+ C- C F A- F D+ D+ F C C+ F 59% 13% 28% F F C A+ A A B F C
1.07 68% 0% 43% +6 +2 1.18 33% 1.0 .33 25% .40 52% .21 1.08 78% 33% 31% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.8 .23 25% .27 79% .21
Feb
14		 SIU Edwardsville A A C A+ A+ 27% 18% 55% C A+ D- A- C F A+ B A+ D- A A+ F F+ 36% 11% 53% F F F F F A+ F D+ F
1.20 67% 38% 46% +12 0 1.25 27% 1.1 .31 21% .43 78% .34 1.12 44% 20% 46% +2 +1 1.09 41% 1.3 .51 27% .48 71% .34
Feb
17		 Southeast Missouri St. F D- F F F 30% 32% 38% F F C+ F F C- D F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 19% 40% C A+ F A+ C A+ F D F
0.74 50% 24% 15% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 18% .34 65% .22 0.78 40% 11% 21% -20 0 0.63 38% 0.9 .33 27% .46 71% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 2.3 38.1 33.8 74.2 1st
2nd 0.0 7.0 5.8 12.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 7.5 7.6 3rd
4th 0.8 2.7 3.5 4th
5th 1.3 0.1 1.5 5th
6th 0.4 0.4 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.7 19.6 43.9 33.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 33.8    29.1 4.7
14-6 86.8% 38.1    7.1 15.2 11.9 3.6 0.2
13-7 11.8% 2.3    0.1 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 74.2% 74.2 36.3 20.0 12.3 4.5 1.0 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 33.8% 36.1% 36.1% 14.7 0.0 0.3 4.0 7.3 0.7 21.6
14-6 43.9% 28.7% 28.7% 15.3 0.0 1.1 7.1 4.5 31.3
13-7 19.6% 16.6% 16.6% 15.5 0.1 1.3 1.9 16.3
12-8 2.7% 11.2% 11.2% 15.7 0.1 0.2 2.4
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.4% 28.4% 0.0% 15.1 71.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.2% 100.0% 14.7 0.0 2.4 32.4 59.5 5.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.4%
Lose Out 1.0%