Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#214
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#142
Pace66.0#274
Improvement-1.2#262

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#242
First Shot-3.4#268
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#132
Layup/Dunks-8.2#359
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.1#3
Freethrows-1.1#252
Improvement+0.3#144

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#189
First Shot+2.0#111
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#336
Layups/Dunks-0.5#196
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#110
Freethrows-0.4#211
Improvement-1.5#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.3% 21.2% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 92.2% 93.7% 79.6%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 91.3% 72.2%
Conference Champion 31.4% 33.4% 14.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 2.1%
First Four1.3% 1.2% 1.8%
First Round19.7% 20.6% 11.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 89.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 32 - 43 - 5
Quad 416 - 619 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 134 @UNLV W 86-81 22%     1 - 0 +9.7 +4.1 +5.0
  Wed, Nov 12 107 @Bradley W 78-67 17%     2 - 0 +18.0 +6.4 +11.1
  Tue, Nov 18 111 @Florida St. L 73-87 18%     2 - 1 -7.5 -2.1 -4.4
  Sat, Nov 22 319 Prairie View W 69-68 72%     3 - 1 -8.4 -7.5 -0.9
  Sun, Nov 23 206 Southern Miss L 60-70 48%     3 - 2 -12.9 +0.9 -16.4
  Tue, Dec 2 215 Charleston Southern W 73-56 62%     4 - 2 +10.5 +2.2 +9.4
  Sun, Dec 7 282 Alabama St. W 74-64 72%     5 - 2 +0.5 -0.7 +1.8
  Wed, Dec 10 129 @Southern Illinois L 54-83 21%     5 - 3 -24.1 -15.2 -8.9
  Thu, Dec 18 240 @Tennessee St. L 71-78 43%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -8.5 -1.0 -7.5
  Sat, Dec 20 285 @Tennessee Tech W 86-62 51%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +20.4 +20.4 +2.5
  Thu, Jan 1 357 Western Illinois W 74-61 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 326 Eastern Illinois W 72-63 82%    
  Thu, Jan 8 308 @Morehead St. W 70-68 57%    
  Sat, Jan 10 339 @Southern Indiana W 72-67 68%    
  Thu, Jan 15 247 SIU Edwardsville W 69-64 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 228 Lindenwood W 76-72 63%    
  Tue, Jan 20 216 @Southeast Missouri St. L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 310 Arkansas Little Rock W 73-65 77%    
  Thu, Jan 29 326 @Eastern Illinois W 69-66 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 357 @Western Illinois W 71-64 75%    
  Thu, Feb 5 339 Southern Indiana W 75-64 84%    
  Sat, Feb 7 308 Morehead St. W 73-65 76%    
  Thu, Feb 12 228 @Lindenwood L 73-75 42%    
  Sat, Feb 14 247 @SIU Edwardsville L 66-67 45%    
  Tue, Feb 17 216 Southeast Missouri St. W 75-72 61%    
  Thu, Feb 19 310 @Arkansas Little Rock W 70-68 57%    
  Thu, Feb 26 285 Tennessee Tech W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 240 Tennessee St. W 74-70 64%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.9 6.2 8.5 7.7 4.7 1.7 0.4 31.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.5 6.9 7.0 3.1 0.7 0.1 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.0 5.1 1.5 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.5 4.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.6 0.8 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.0 0.8 0.1 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.9 0.1 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.1 5.1 8.0 11.0 13.8 14.8 14.7 11.8 8.4 4.7 1.7 0.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
17-3 98.9% 4.7    4.5 0.2
16-4 92.0% 7.7    6.5 1.2 0.0
15-5 72.5% 8.5    5.4 2.8 0.4 0.0
14-6 42.2% 6.2    2.2 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-7 13.1% 1.9    0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-8 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.4% 31.4 20.9 7.6 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.4% 58.6% 58.6% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.7% 48.8% 48.8% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9
17-3 4.7% 43.8% 43.8% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.6
16-4 8.4% 39.2% 39.2% 14.6 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.2 5.1
15-5 11.8% 35.3% 35.3% 14.9 0.1 1.0 2.5 0.6 7.6
14-6 14.7% 27.2% 27.2% 15.2 0.0 0.3 2.4 1.3 10.7
13-7 14.8% 18.6% 18.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.3 12.1
12-8 13.8% 12.4% 12.4% 15.6 0.0 0.7 1.0 12.1
11-9 11.0% 6.6% 6.6% 15.7 0.2 0.5 10.3
10-10 8.0% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.1 0.3 7.6
9-11 5.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.9
8-12 3.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 3.0
7-13 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-14 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.1 9.6 5.4 79.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.4 1.5 66.2 27.7 4.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%