IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.9	#325
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.0	#235
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.9	#310

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.0	#324

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.3%	8.1%	3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	17.4	15.2	15.5

.500 or above	22.6%	52.8%	21.5%
.500 or above in Conference	35.7%	57.7%	34.9%
Conference Champion	3.5%	8.9%	3.3%
Last Place in Conference	17.2%	7.3%	17.5%

First Four	1.4%	2.4%	1.4%
First Round	3.0%	8.1%	2.9%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 3.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 7
Quad 4	10 - 10	11 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2025	86	@ UNLV	L	58-77	3%
Nov 12, 2025	107	@ Bradley	L	59-76	6%
Nov 18, 2025	75	@ Florida St.	L	62-82	4%
Nov 22, 2025	340	Prairie View	W	73-71	56%
Dec 02, 2025	313	Charleston Southern	W	70-68	56%
Dec 07, 2025	289	Alabama St.	W	70-69	51%
Dec 10, 2025	138	@ Southern Illinois	L	63-77	10%
Dec 18, 2025	268	@ Tennessee St.	L	69-76	27%
Dec 20, 2025	324	@ Tennessee Tech	L	69-72	39%
Jan 01, 2026	343	Western Illinois	W	69-64	66%
Jan 03, 2026	321	Eastern Illinois	W	68-65	58%
Jan 08, 2026	291	@ Morehead St.	L	62-68	32%
Jan 10, 2026	311	@ Southern Indiana	L	68-72	35%
Jan 15, 2026	240	SIU Edwardsville	L	65-68	41%
Jan 17, 2026	326	Lindenwood	W	72-69	60%
Jan 20, 2026	228	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	65-74	23%
Jan 24, 2026	162	Arkansas Little Rock	L	65-71	30%
Jan 29, 2026	321	@ Eastern Illinois	L	65-68	39%
Jan 31, 2026	343	@ Western Illinois	L	66-67	46%
Feb 05, 2026	311	Southern Indiana	W	71-69	55%
Feb 07, 2026	291	Morehead St.	W	66-65	50%
Feb 12, 2026	326	@ Lindenwood	L	69-72	40%
Feb 14, 2026	240	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	62-71	24%
Feb 17, 2026	228	Southeast Missouri St.	L	68-71	40%
Feb 19, 2026	162	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	62-74	16%
Feb 26, 2026	324	Tennessee Tech	W	72-69	59%
Feb 28, 2026	268	Tennessee St.	L	72-73	46%
Projected Record						10 - 17	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	0.5	0.9	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0		3.5	1st
2nd												0.1	0.6	1.6	1.7	1.1	0.5	0.1					5.6	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.1	2.1	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.0						6.8	3rd
4th										0.2	1.3	3.3	2.3	0.7	0.1								7.9	4th
5th									0.2	1.6	3.8	2.9	0.7	0.0									9.3	5th
6th								0.2	1.7	4.3	3.2	0.7	0.0										10.2	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	1.8	4.6	3.0	0.6	0.0											10.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	2.0	4.2	3.5	0.7	0.0												10.9	8th
9th				0.1	0.7	2.9	4.6	3.1	0.6	0.0													12.0	9th
10th		0.0	0.3	1.4	3.1	4.3	2.2	0.5	0.1														11.9	10th
11th	0.4	1.3	2.4	3.1	2.7	1.2	0.3	0.0															11.4	11th

Total	0.4	1.3	2.7	4.6	6.5	8.7	9.4	9.9	10.7	10.0	9.1	8.1	5.7	5.0	3.0	2.2	1.5	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
18-2	100.0%	0.3		0.3	0.0
17-3	83.1%	0.6		0.5	0.1
16-4	62.1%	0.9		0.6	0.3	0.0
15-5	39.0%	0.9		0.4	0.4	0.0
14-6	15.8%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	5.4%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0			0.0		0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	3.5%	3.5		2.0	1.1	0.3	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		49.1%	49.1%		12.0												0.0		0.0				0.0
19-1	0.1%		66.9%	66.9%		13.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
18-2	0.3%		39.0%	39.0%		13.9														0.0	0.1	0.0		0.2
17-3	0.7%		33.8%	33.8%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
16-4	1.5%		28.4%	28.4%		17.1														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	1.1
15-5	2.2%		24.5%	24.5%		18.1														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	1.7
14-6	3.0%		17.7%	17.7%		18.4															0.0	0.2	0.4	2.5
13-7	5.0%		10.1%	10.1%		18.8																0.2	0.4	4.5
12-8	5.7%		4.7%	4.7%		17.0																0.1	0.2	5.5
11-9	8.1%		3.6%	3.6%		18.3																0.0	0.3	7.8
10-10	9.1%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																0.0	0.2	9.0
9-11	10.0%		0.6%	0.6%		19.6																0.0	0.1	9.9
8-12	10.7%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	10.6
7-13	9.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	9.9
6-14	9.4%																							9.4
5-15	8.7%																							8.7
4-16	6.5%																							6.5
3-17	4.6%																							4.6
2-18	2.7%																							2.7
1-19	1.3%																							1.3
0-20	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		3.3%	3.3%	0.0%	17.4												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.1	2.3	96.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%