Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.2 217
Expected Predictive Rating -1.8 189
Pace 63.2 324
Improvement -1.5 241

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 299 D+ C F C- C-
Defense C+ 125 C+ C B C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 341 C- 56% 211 -4.9 338
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 247 C+ 40% 125 -0.6 212
Three Pointers 51% 21 D 31% 297 +2.8 85
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 220 D+ -2.5 269
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 269
Second Chance B 35.6% 46 D- 0.89 340 C 0.32 161
Turnovers F 21.2% 356
Freethrows C+ 0.31 156 F+ 66% 349 C- 0.21 229
Total Offense D -4.9 299

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 147 C 10.6% 156
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 227 C+ 4.5% 141
Three Pointers B+ 92% 26 C 0.9% 193
Total B 61% 65 B 4.6% 69

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 325 D 63% 310 -1.9 113
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 144 B 34% 46 -0.6 142
Three Pointers 46% 42 B- 32% 95 +1.4 253
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 89 C -0.5 160
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 140
Second Chance D+ 33.3% 295 B- 0.95 74 C 0.32 203
Turnovers B 19.0% 58
Freethrows C- 0.33 254 B 70% 60 C- 0.23 221
Total Defense C+ +1.7 125

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F+ 60% 355 C 10.8% 184
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 166 A+ 11.5% 8
Three Pointers D 89% 321 B+ 1.9% 41
Total D- 64% 341 B- 6.9% 82

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 303 17.6 237
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 150 0.22 328
Improvement -2.6 #310 +1.1 #122

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 244 218 189
Conference Record 12 - 8 14 - 6 14 - 6
Conference Finish 4 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23% 24% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 29% 35% 2%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 2%
First Round23% 24% 17%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 31 - 22 - 4
Quad 417 - 620 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 125 @UNLV W 86 - 81 20% -1  43% 1 - 0 B +11 C -0 C C+ C A +10 B+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 120 @Bradley W 78 - 67 20% +2  64% 2 - 0 A- +17 C+ +2 A+ A- F A+ +14 A+ D A
 Tue, Nov 18 86 @Florida St. L 73 - 87 12% -6  12% 2 - 1 C- -4 D+ -3 B+ A F C +0 D+ B+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 334 Prairie View W 69 - 68 78% -2  38% 3 - 1 D -10 F -10 D F F C+ +0 B+ C C
 Sun, Nov 23 245 Southern Miss L 60 - 70 55% -14  0% 3 - 2 F+ -14 C- -0 C+ D- C+ F -17 F F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 258 Charleston Southern W 73 - 56 70% +5  77% 4 - 2 B +9 C- -1 D D+ C A +11 A+ C B+
 Sun, Dec 7 309 Alabama St. W 74 - 64 79% -0  34% 5 - 2 C- -2 C- -1 F+ B+ D+ C -0 F A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 10 128 @Southern Illinois L 54 - 83 21% -9  15% 5 - 3 F -24 F -14 F+ F F F -10 F F B
 Thu, Dec 18 247 @Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 44% +1  61% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D -9 D- -7 F C+ F+ C -1 F+ B D
 Sat, Dec 20 314 @Tennessee Tech W 86 - 62 62% +7  85% 6 - 4 1 - 1 A- +18 A+ +16 A+ F A- B +4 F A A
 Thu, Jan 1 362 Western Illinois W 67 - 60 94% -2  27% 7 - 4 2 - 1 D- -14 F -11 F F B+ C- -2 F+ A- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 320 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 61 83% -0  41% 8 - 4 3 - 1 D -9 F -10 F A F C+ +1 C+ A- C-
 Thu, Jan 8 286 @Morehead St. W 76 - 68 54% -3  28% 9 - 4 4 - 1 C+ +4 B +6 B B- D+ C -1 C- F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 341 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 56 72% +2  52% 10 - 4 5 - 1 B- +8 B- +5 C+ A+ F B +5 A- D- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 248 SIU Edwardsville W 65 - 59 67% +3  71% 11 - 4 6 - 1 C- -2 D+ -3 D B+ D+ B- +2 A- C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 260 Lindenwood W 69 - 55 70% +10  96% 12 - 4 7 - 1 B- +5 F+ -10 C- C- F A+ +15 A+ B- A
 Tue, Jan 20 227 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 66 40% -18  0% 12 - 5 7 - 2 F+ -17 F -19 F C F C+ +1 C+ F+ B-
 Thu, Jan 29 320 @Eastern Illinois W 76 - 68 65% +7  94% 13 - 5 8 - 2 C +1 B- +4 A+ C- F C- -3 C+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 362 @Western Illinois W 84 - 44 86% +21  98% 14 - 5 9 - 2 A+ +25 A- +9 C A+ C A+ +19 A- A+ A
 Tue, Feb 3 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 55 - 52 77% +1  69% 15 - 5 10 - 2 D+ -8 F -19 F+ D+ F A+ +11 B- C A+
 Thu, Feb 5 341 Southern Indiana W 76 - 54 87% +13  91% 16 - 5 11 - 2 B- +7 C+ +3 C- A+ F B+ +6 A- B B-
 Sat, Feb 7 286 Morehead St. L 55 - 61 75% -0  37% 16 - 6 11 - 3 F+ -16 F -19 F D- C C+ +2 B- D+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 260 @Lindenwood L 74 - 75 48% +0  47% 16 - 7 11 - 4 C- -4 C +0 A- C F D+ -4 F A A
 Sat, Feb 14 248 @SIU Edwardsville W 81 - 76 45% +2  53% 17 - 7 12 - 4 C+ +3 A +12 A+ C F F+ -8 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 17 227 Southeast Missouri St. L 53 - 56 OT 63% -5  2% 17 - 8 12 - 5 D -10 F -24 F F C- A+ +15 A+ C A+
 Thu, Feb 19 299 @Arkansas Little Rock L 65 - 67 57% +2  67% 17 - 9 12 - 6 D+ -7 C- -2 F B- B+ D -6 D F B-
 Thu, Feb 26 314 Tennessee Tech W 73 - 64 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 247 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 66%
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 7 -3 D -5 B D+ C- C+ +2 D F+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- C+ D D+ 31% 32% 51% C- D+ B D- C F C+ F+ C- C+ D B B- C 32% 21% 46% B- C+ D+ B- C B C- B C-
1.02 56% 40% 31% -2 0 0.97 36% 0.9 .32 21% .31 66% .21 1.06 63% 34% 32% -1 -1 1.00 33% 1.0 .32 19% .33 70% .22
Nov
4		 UNLV C F A+ C C- 30% 12% 58% C+ C C- A- C+ C A+ F A+ A D B A A- 33% 19% 49% B- B+ B- F F A+ F F+ F
1.07 47% 50% 34% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.3 .35 17% .73 56% .41 1.01 64% 38% 29% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.5 .47 27% .64 76% .48
Nov
12		 Bradley C+ B A+ A+ A+ 39% 9% 52% A+ A+ D+ A+ A- F C+ F D+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ 42% 18% 40% D- A+ C+ F D A F F+ F
1.06 65% 50% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 1.6 .42 31% .34 65% .22 0.91 63% 13% 6% -19 +1 0.64 26% 1.3 .33 19% .62 81% .51
Nov
18		 Florida St. D+ D- A+ A- A- 31% 18% 51% C+ B+ B+ A A F A+ B+ A+ C D+ A+ C- C- 45% 9% 46% D D+ C- A+ B+ F D+ A+ B
0.97 50% 63% 39% +6 0 1.13 37% 1.2 .43 34% .42 76% .32 1.15 64% 20% 35% +1 +2 1.09 33% 0.9 .29 8% .33 57% .19
Nov
22		 Prairie View F B- A+ F D- 40% 18% 43% C D F+ F F F A+ D A+ C+ C C- A+ B- 23% 45% 32% A+ B+ D B+ C C F D+ F
0.99 63% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 23% .56 70% .39 0.98 55% 38% 20% -7 -4 0.79 27% 0.9 .24 16% .53 77% .41
Nov
23		 Southern Miss C- D+ A+ C C+ 38% 20% 43% C- C+ C+ F D- C+ A F C F F B- F F 31% 33% 36% B F F D- F F+ B A+ A+
1.08 53% 63% 35% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.7 .20 16% .43 55% .23 1.25 71% 33% 38% +4 -2 1.07 42% 1.2 .48 14% .31 53% .17
Dec
2		 Charleston Southern C- B F F+ D- 27% 15% 58% C+ D A F D+ C A+ A A+ A F+ D+ A+ A+ 19% 10% 71% A- A+ D+ B- C B+ B- A B
1.11 62% 14% 29% -7 0 0.88 40% 0.7 .27 12% .55 78% .43 0.85 67% 40% 24% -9 0 0.83 31% 0.8 .26 21% .23 58% .13
Dec
7		 Alabama St. C- D A+ F F+ 28% 17% 54% D F+ A+ D B+ D+ A- F F C F B F F 36% 28% 36% B- F A- A+ A+ B- F A+ C-
1.12 54% 50% 28% -4 0 0.93 45% 1.0 .45 20% .43 48% .21 0.97 71% 31% 41% +6 -1 1.13 25% 0.4 .09 20% .36 58% .21
Dec
10		 Southern Illinois F F D F F 28% 12% 60% C+ F+ C+ F F F D D+ D F F B F F 52% 22% 26% F F D+ F F B F+ C+ D-
0.77 43% 33% 27% -11 0 0.80 29% 0.5 .16 27% .24 67% .16 1.19 73% 36% 38% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 19% .37 67% .25
Dec
18		 Tennessee St. D- F A+ F F 43% 16% 41% C- F B D+ C+ F+ A+ C- A+ C D D- C- F 41% 43% 17% A- F+ A D B D C- D+ D+
1.00 47% 57% 22% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 72% .38 1.10 64% 43% 33% +4 -3 1.06 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 78% .23
Dec
20		 Tennessee Tech A+ A A+ A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% D A+ D+ F F A- F+ A+ D+ B F F B- F 18% 24% 58% A F B A+ A A B- C B-
1.36 71% 55% 46% +17 -1 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 11% .23 85% .19 0.98 88% 55% 31% +6 -2 1.11 27% 0.8 .21 24% .25 75% .19
Jan
1		 Western Illinois F C F A- F 50% 38% 12% F F B F F B+ A+ D- A+ C- F+ A+ F F 17% 36% 47% A+ F+ F A+ A- B+ A F+ B+
1.05 62% 19% 40% -4 -1 0.90 38% 0.5 .21 11% .54 68% .37 0.94 63% 18% 45% +1 -4 0.98 41% 0.3 .13 20% .22 73% .16
Jan
3		 Eastern Illinois F F A+ F F 22% 15% 63% D- F C A+ A F A+ A A+ C+ F B- A C 18% 33% 49% A C+ D- A+ A- C- F A+ F
0.97 44% 67% 19% -13 0 0.76 34% 1.5 .50 27% .53 85% .45 0.91 67% 31% 25% -7 -3 0.82 30% 0.5 .16 18% .42 65% .27
Jan
8		 Morehead St. B B- A A- B+ 36% 18% 45% D+ B A D B- D+ A+ D- A+ C D B+ A- C+ 47% 13% 40% F C- F B F+ B+ F B+ D-
1.23 63% 50% 40% +8 0 1.18 46% 0.8 .39 16% .52 67% .35 1.10 62% 33% 28% -3 +2 1.00 51% 0.8 .40 21% .39 68% .27
Jan
10		 Southern Indiana B- D F A+ C 53% 14% 33% B+ C+ A+ C A+ F A A- A+ B A+ B B A 30% 23% 48% C+ A- D F+ D- B- F B- F
1.17 52% 17% 50% +2 +2 1.09 53% 1.0 .53 22% .41 80% .33 0.89 23% 30% 29% -16 -1 0.68 32% 1.0 .32 19% .57 62% .36
Jan
15		 SIU Edwardsville D+ C+ A+ F D 15% 17% 67% D+ D B B B+ D+ A+ F A+ B- A F A+ B 22% 41% 37% A+ A- B D+ C+ F C- A+ A
1.02 57% 50% 26% -6 -1 0.87 38% 1.1 .41 17% .50 65% .32 0.93 42% 55% 15% -7 -4 0.80 25% 1.1 .27 9% .28 44% .12
Jan
17		 Lindenwood F+ B- C C- C+ 35% 26% 39% F+ C- C+ D- C- F F B- F A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ 18% 47% 36% A+ A+ C+ B B- A F B F
0.97 63% 36% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 0.9 .31 24% .20 73% .15 0.77 50% 33% 13% -15 -5 0.62 29% 1.0 .29 24% .50 63% .31
Jan
20		 Southeast Missouri St. F D+ F+ F F 36% 8% 56% B- F A+ F C F A+ F C+ C+ C+ A- C+ C+ 27% 15% 58% B- C+ F B+ F+ B- C A+ B+
0.78 54% 33% 20% -14 +1 0.78 46% 0.7 .31 33% .51 59% .30 1.03 54% 29% 32% -4 0 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 19% .33 53% .17
Jan
29		 Eastern Illinois B- A A+ A+ A+ 34% 7% 59% B- A+ B F+ C- F A F C+ C- F A+ A+ C+ 38% 28% 34% D+ C+ D C+ D+ F F A+ F
1.12 71% 67% 42% +13 +1 1.32 39% 0.9 .36 30% .42 65% .27 1.01 65% 20% 22% -8 -1 0.83 30% 1.0 .30 12% .49 59% .29
Jan
31		 Western Illinois A- B- A+ D C- 51% 8% 42% A- C A+ A- A+ C C- B C A+ A+ B- B A+ 37% 14% 49% F A- A A+ A+ A D- C D
1.30 67% 50% 32% +4 +3 1.15 48% 1.3 .63 14% .30 76% .23 0.68 25% 33% 29% -17 +1 0.70 18% 0.3 .06 22% .35 67% .24
Feb
3		 Arkansas Little Rock F A D+ D- F+ 20% 8% 73% D+ F+ C- D D+ F F+ F F A+ C+ C- A+ B 41% 30% 28% D B- B- D- C A+ A+ C- A+
0.89 75% 33% 31% 0 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .29 27% .22 50% .11 0.84 58% 36% 23% -5 -1 0.89 28% 1.1 .31 27% .07 67% .04
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Southern Indiana C+ D A+ C- C 28% 26% 46% F C- A+ C A+ F B- F F+ B+ B A+ B- B+ 23% 34% 43% A+ A- D A+ B B- F D F
1.18 54% 50% 33% +1 -1 1.02 55% 1.0 .55 23% .35 53% .18 0.84 45% 13% 30% -14 -3 0.68 32% 0.6 .18 19% .42 68% .29
Feb
7		 Morehead St. F F D- F F 27% 7% 67% C F A- F D- C A+ D A+ C+ C+ A F C 22% 41% 37% A+ B- D- C+ D+ B+ F F F
0.91 42% 33% 20% -19 +1 0.67 45% 0.6 .25 15% .49 68% .33 1.01 56% 29% 40% -1 -4 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 22% .38 89% .34
Feb
12		 Lindenwood C A- F A+ A- 42% 11% 47% B- A- C+ D+ C F A- F D+ D+ F C+ C+ F 59% 13% 28% F F C A+ A A B F C
1.07 68% 0% 43% +6 +2 1.18 33% 1.0 .33 25% .40 52% .21 1.08 78% 33% 31% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.8 .23 25% .27 79% .21
Feb
14		 SIU Edwardsville A A C A+ A+ 27% 18% 55% C A+ D- A- C F A+ B A+ F+ A A+ F F+ 36% 11% 53% F F F F F A+ F D+ F
1.20 67% 38% 46% +12 0 1.25 27% 1.1 .31 21% .43 78% .34 1.12 44% 20% 46% +2 +1 1.09 41% 1.3 .51 27% .48 71% .34
Feb
17		 Southeast Missouri St. F D- F F F 30% 32% 38% F F C+ F F C- D- F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 19% 40% C A+ F A+ C A+ F D F
0.74 50% 24% 15% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 18% .34 65% .22 0.78 40% 11% 21% -20 0 0.63 38% 0.9 .33 27% .46 71% .32
Feb
19		 Arkansas Little Rock C- C- F D F 31% 18% 51% D- F A+ F B- B+ F C- F D F A- F F 23% 47% 30% A+ D D+ F F B- F B F
1.09 60% 11% 32% -6 0 0.90 53% 0.7 .38 15% .20 70% .14 1.12 80% 25% 46% +5 -4 1.02 33% 1.6 .53 20% .38 61% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.6 28.1 28.6 1st
2nd 0.0 7.4 21.5 28.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 20.1 4.1 24.5 3rd
4th 3.7 10.8 14.6 4th
5th 2.8 2.8 5th
6th 0.7 0.7 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 7.4 39.0 53.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 52.3% 28.1    1.8 10.4 13.4 2.4
13-7 1.5% 0.6    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 28.6% 28.6 1.8 10.5 13.4 2.6 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 53.7% 27.8% 27.8% 14.8 0.0 0.2 3.9 9.3 1.5 38.8
13-7 39.0% 18.6% 18.6% 15.4 0.0 0.3 3.8 3.2 31.7
12-8 7.4% 12.6% 12.6% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 6.4
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.1% 23.1% 0.0% 15.0 76.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.9% 100.0% 14.8 0.0 1.1 26.0 62.7 10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 17.8%
Lose Out 2.7%