Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.0 217
Expected Predictive Rating +0.4 153
Pace 63.8 314
Improvement -0.6 211

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #303 D+ C F C- C
Defense C+ #115 C+ C B- C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 340 56% 234 -5.0 341
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 234 43% 48 -0.1 183
Three Pointers 51% 20 30% 307 +2.6 92
1st FG Attempt 0.97 255 -2.5 254
Second Chance 35.9% 47 0.90 324 0.32 145
Turnovers 21.5% 357
Freethrows 0.32 129 66% 347 0.21 209
Total Offense -4.9 303

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 332 63% 305 +2.4 98
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 119 35% 80 +0.1 181
Three Pointers 46% 43 31% 64 -0.8 219
1st FG Attempt 0.98 119 +1.7 120
Second Chance 33.0% 287 0.93 58 0.31 174
Turnovers 18.3% 100
Freethrows 0.32 246 69% 39 0.22 203
Total Defense +1.9 115

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.2 211 -0.7 67
Shot Type Accuracy -2.3 254 -1.0 140
Possession Length 18.4 292 17.5 228
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 161 0.21 309
Improvement -2.8 #321 +2.3 #66

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.9% 32.9% 25.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 74.1% 87.9% 62.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.3%
First Round28.4% 32.5% 25.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Away) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 31 - 32 - 5
Quad 418 - 421 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 128 @UNLV W 86 - 81 22% -1  43% 1 - 0 B +10 C +1 C C+ C+ A- +9 B+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 119 @Bradley W 78 - 67 20% +2  64% 2 - 0 A- +17 C+ +2 A+ A- F A+ +15 A+ D A
 Tue, Nov 18 95 @Florida St. L 73 - 87 15% -6  12% 2 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -3 A- A F C -1 D A- F
 Sat, Nov 22 337 Prairie View W 69 - 68 79% -2  38% 3 - 1 D -10 F -11 D- F F C+ +1 B+ C- C
 Sun, Nov 23 240 Southern Miss L 60 - 70 56% -14  0% 3 - 2 F+ -15 C- -1 C+ D- C+ F -16 F+ F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 258 Charleston Southern W 73 - 56 70% +5  77% 4 - 2 B +9 C- -1 D+ D+ C- A +11 A+ C- B
 Sun, Dec 7 316 Alabama St. W 74 - 64 82% -0  34% 5 - 2 C- -3 C- -2 F+ B D+ C -0 F A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 10 131 @Southern Illinois L 54 - 83 22% -9  15% 5 - 3 F -24 F -15 F+ F F F+ -9 F F B-
 Thu, Dec 18 234 @Tennessee St. L 71 - 78 43% +1  61% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D -8 D- -7 F C+ F C -2 D- B- D+
 Sat, Dec 20 320 @Tennessee Tech W 86 - 62 65% +7  85% 6 - 4 1 - 1 A- +17 A+ +15 A+ F A B- +4 F A- A-
 Thu, Jan 1 362 Western Illinois W 67 - 60 93% -2  27% 7 - 4 2 - 1 D- -13 F -11 F F A- C -1 F A- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 326 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 61 83% -0  41% 8 - 4 3 - 1 D -9 F+ -10 F A- F C+ +1 B- A- C-
 Thu, Jan 8 292 @Morehead St. W 76 - 68 56% -3  28% 9 - 4 4 - 1 C+ +3 B +7 B B- C- C- -2 C- F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 343 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 56 71% +2  52% 10 - 4 5 - 1 B +8 B +6 B- A+ F B +4 A- F+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 242 SIU Edwardsville W 65 - 59 67% +3  71% 11 - 4 6 - 1 C -2 D+ -3 D B+ D+ B- +3 A- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 244 Lindenwood W 69 - 55 67% +10  96% 12 - 4 7 - 1 B- +6 F+ -9 C- D+ F A+ +16 A+ B A
 Tue, Jan 20 230 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 66 41% -18  0% 12 - 5 7 - 2 F+ -17 F -20 F C- F C+ +2 B- D- B-
 Thu, Jan 29 326 @Eastern Illinois W 76 - 68 66% +7  94% 13 - 5 8 - 2 C +1 B- +4 A+ C- F C- -3 C+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 362 @Western Illinois W 84 - 44 84% +21  98% 14 - 5 9 - 2 A+ +26 A- +10 C A+ C+ A+ +20 A- A+ A
 Tue, Feb 3 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 55 - 52 78% +1  69% 15 - 5 10 - 2 D -8 F -19 F D+ F A +11 B- C- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 343 Southern Indiana W 76 - 54 86% +13  91% 16 - 5 11 - 2 B- +7 B- +4 C- A+ F B +5 A- B- C+
 Sat, Feb 7 292 Morehead St. L 55 - 61 77% -0  37% 16 - 6 11 - 3 F+ -17 F -18 F D- C C+ +1 C+ D+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 244 @Lindenwood L 70 - 71 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 242 @SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 62 44%
 Tue, Feb 17 230 Southeast Missouri St. W 71 - 67 63%
 Thu, Feb 19 301 @Arkansas Little Rock W 68 - 66 58%
 Thu, Feb 26 320 Tennessee Tech W 74 - 64 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 234 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 66%
Totals 20 - 8 15 - 5 -3 D -5 D+ C F C+ +2 C+ C B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C- B D D+ 31% 18% 51% C D+ B D C F C+ F+ C- C+ D B- B C+ 32% 22% 46% B- C+ D+ B C B- C- B+ C
1.02 56% 43% 30% -2 0 0.97 36% 0.9 .32 21% .32 66% .21 1.06 63% 35% 31% -1 -1 0.98 33% 0.9 .31 18% .32 69% .22
Nov
4		 UNLV C F+ A+ C C 30% 12% 58% C+ C C- A- C+ C+ A+ F A+ A- D B- A B+ 33% 19% 49% B- B+ B- F F A+ F F+ F
1.07 47% 50% 34% -1 0 1.00 28% 1.3 .35 17% .73 56% .41 1.01 64% 38% 29% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.5 .47 27% .64 76% .48
Nov
12		 Bradley C+ B A+ A+ A+ 39% 9% 52% A+ A+ D A+ A- F C+ F C- A+ D A+ A+ A+ 42% 18% 40% D- A+ C+ F D A F F+ F
1.06 65% 50% 43% +11 +1 1.27 27% 1.6 .42 31% .34 65% .22 0.91 63% 13% 6% -19 +1 0.64 26% 1.3 .33 19% .62 81% .51
Nov
18		 Florida St. D+ D- A+ A- A- 31% 18% 51% C+ A- B+ A A F A+ B A+ C D+ A+ D+ D+ 45% 9% 46% D D C A+ A- F D+ A+ B-
0.97 50% 63% 39% +6 0 1.13 37% 1.2 .43 34% .42 76% .32 1.15 64% 20% 35% +2 +2 1.09 33% 0.9 .29 8% .33 57% .19
Nov
22		 Prairie View F B- A+ F D- 40% 18% 43% C D- F F+ F F A+ D+ A+ C+ C+ C- A+ B 23% 45% 32% A+ B+ D B C- C F D+ F
0.99 63% 57% 24% -1 +1 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 23% .56 70% .39 0.98 55% 38% 20% -7 -4 0.79 27% 0.9 .24 16% .53 77% .41
Nov
23		 Southern Miss C- D+ A+ C C+ 38% 20% 43% C- C+ C+ F D- C+ A F C F F B- F F 31% 33% 36% B- F+ F D- F F+ B A+ A+
1.08 53% 63% 35% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.7 .20 16% .43 55% .23 1.25 71% 33% 38% +5 -2 1.07 42% 1.2 .48 14% .31 53% .17
Dec
2		 Charleston Southern C- B+ F F+ D 27% 15% 58% C+ D+ A F D+ C- A+ A- A+ A D- D+ A+ A+ 19% 10% 71% B+ A+ D+ C C- B B- A B
1.11 62% 14% 29% -7 0 0.88 40% 0.7 .27 12% .55 78% .43 0.85 67% 40% 24% -9 0 0.83 31% 0.8 .26 21% .23 58% .13
Dec
7		 Alabama St. C- D A+ F F+ 28% 17% 54% D F+ A D- B D+ A F F+ C F B F F 36% 28% 36% B- F B+ A+ A+ C+ F+ A+ C-
1.12 54% 50% 28% -4 0 0.93 45% 1.0 .45 20% .43 48% .21 0.97 71% 31% 41% +7 -1 1.13 25% 0.4 .09 20% .36 58% .21
Dec
10		 Southern Illinois F F D F+ F 28% 12% 60% C+ F+ C F F F D- D F+ F+ F B F F 52% 22% 26% F F D+ F F B- D- C D
0.77 43% 33% 27% -11 0 0.80 29% 0.5 .16 27% .24 67% .16 1.19 73% 36% 38% +9 +1 1.22 32% 1.2 .39 19% .37 67% .25
Dec
18		 Tennessee St. D- F A+ F F 43% 16% 41% C- F B D C+ F A+ D A+ C D D- C- F 41% 43% 17% A D- A- D- B- D+ D+ D- D
1.00 47% 57% 22% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 72% .38 1.10 64% 43% 33% +4 -3 1.06 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 78% .23
Dec
20		 Tennessee Tech A+ A A+ A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% D A+ D+ F F A F+ A+ D+ B- F F B- F 18% 24% 58% A F B- A A- A- B C- B-
1.36 71% 55% 46% +17 -1 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 11% .23 85% .19 0.98 88% 55% 31% +7 -2 1.11 27% 0.8 .21 24% .25 75% .19
Jan
1		 Western Illinois F C F A- F 50% 38% 12% F F B F F A- A+ F+ A+ C F+ A+ F F 17% 36% 47% A+ F F A+ A- B+ A D- B+
1.05 62% 19% 40% -4 -1 0.90 38% 0.5 .21 11% .54 68% .37 0.94 63% 18% 45% +2 -4 0.98 41% 0.3 .13 20% .22 73% .16
Jan
3		 Eastern Illinois F+ F A+ F F 22% 15% 63% D F C A+ A- F A+ A- A+ C+ F B- A+ C 18% 33% 49% A- B- D- A+ A- C- F A F
0.97 44% 67% 19% -13 0 0.76 34% 1.5 .50 27% .53 85% .45 0.91 67% 31% 25% -7 -3 0.82 30% 0.5 .16 18% .42 65% .27
Jan
8		 Morehead St. B B- A A- B+ 36% 18% 45% D+ B A D+ B- C- A+ D A+ C- D B A- C+ 47% 13% 40% F C- F B F+ B+ F B+ D-
1.23 63% 50% 40% +8 0 1.18 46% 0.8 .39 16% .52 67% .35 1.10 62% 33% 28% -2 +2 1.00 51% 0.8 .40 21% .39 68% .27
Jan
10		 Southern Indiana B D F A+ C+ 53% 14% 33% B B- A+ B- A+ F A A- A+ B A+ B B A- 30% 23% 48% C+ A- D- F+ F+ B- F B F
1.17 52% 17% 50% +2 +2 1.09 53% 1.0 .53 22% .41 80% .33 0.89 23% 30% 29% -16 -1 0.68 32% 1.0 .32 19% .57 62% .36
Jan
15		 SIU Edwardsville D+ C+ A+ F D+ 15% 17% 67% D+ D B- B B+ D+ A+ F A B- A+ F A+ B+ 22% 41% 37% A+ A- B- D C F C A+ A
1.02 57% 50% 26% -6 -1 0.87 38% 1.1 .41 17% .50 65% .32 0.93 42% 55% 15% -7 -4 0.80 25% 1.1 .27 9% .28 44% .12
Jan
17		 Lindenwood F+ B- C C C+ 35% 26% 39% F+ C- C+ D- D+ F F C+ F A+ B+ C A+ A+ 18% 47% 36% A+ A+ B- B B A F B F
0.97 63% 36% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 0.9 .31 24% .20 73% .15 0.77 50% 33% 13% -15 -5 0.62 29% 1.0 .29 24% .50 63% .31
Jan
20		 Southeast Missouri St. F D+ F+ F F 36% 8% 56% B- F A+ F C- F A+ F C C+ C+ A C+ C+ 27% 15% 58% B- B- F A- D- B- C- A+ B
0.78 54% 33% 20% -13 +1 0.78 46% 0.7 .31 33% .51 59% .30 1.03 54% 29% 32% -4 0 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 19% .33 53% .17
Jan
29		 Eastern Illinois B- A- A+ A+ A+ 34% 7% 59% B- A+ B F+ C- F A F C+ C- F A+ A+ B- 38% 28% 34% D+ C+ D C D+ F F A+ F
1.12 71% 67% 42% +14 +1 1.32 39% 0.9 .36 30% .42 65% .27 1.01 65% 20% 22% -8 -1 0.83 30% 1.0 .30 12% .49 59% .29
Jan
31		 Western Illinois A- B- A+ D C- 51% 8% 42% A- C A+ A- A+ C+ C- B- C A+ A+ C+ B A+ 37% 14% 49% F A- A A+ A+ A D- C D
1.30 67% 50% 32% +4 +3 1.15 48% 1.3 .63 14% .30 76% .23 0.68 25% 33% 29% -17 +1 0.70 18% 0.3 .06 22% .35 67% .24
Feb
3		 Arkansas Little Rock F A D D- F 20% 8% 73% D+ F C- D D+ F F+ F F A C+ C- A+ B 41% 30% 28% D B- B- F+ C- A+ A+ C A+
0.89 75% 33% 31% 0 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .29 27% .22 50% .11 0.84 58% 36% 23% -5 -1 0.89 28% 1.1 .31 27% .07 67% .04
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Southern Indiana B- D+ A+ C- C+ 28% 26% 46% F C- A+ B- A+ F B- F F+ B B A+ B- B+ 23% 34% 43% A+ A- D- A+ B- C+ F D+ F
1.18 54% 50% 33% +2 -1 1.02 55% 1.0 .55 23% .35 53% .18 0.84 45% 13% 30% -14 -3 0.68 32% 0.6 .18 19% .42 68% .29
Feb
7		 Morehead St. F F D- F F 27% 7% 67% C F A- F D- C A+ D+ A+ C+ C+ A- F C- 22% 41% 37% A+ C+ D- C+ D+ B+ F F F
0.91 42% 33% 20% -19 +1 0.67 45% 0.6 .25 15% .49 68% .33 1.01 56% 29% 40% -1 -4 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 22% .38 89% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1.1 19.4 30.0 18.6 5.0 74.1 1st
2nd 0.0 5.4 7.7 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.7 5.9 0.5 7.1 3rd
4th 1.5 1.7 3.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 0.1 1.6 5th
6th 0.4 0.5 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.5 4.1 14.2 27.7 30.0 18.6 5.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 5.0    5.0
16-4 100.0% 18.6    18.6
15-5 100.0% 30.0    23.1 6.7 0.3
14-6 70.1% 19.4    3.7 8.5 5.9 1.2 0.1
13-7 7.7% 1.1    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 74.1% 74.1 50.4 15.3 6.5 1.6 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 5.0% 42.9% 42.9% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.4 2.9
16-4 18.6% 37.4% 37.4% 14.7 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.9 0.5 11.6
15-5 30.0% 33.3% 33.3% 15.1 0.0 1.4 6.1 2.4 20.0
14-6 27.7% 26.2% 26.2% 15.3 0.0 0.4 3.9 2.9 20.4
13-7 14.2% 15.6% 15.6% 15.5 0.1 1.0 1.1 11.9
12-8 4.1% 8.1% 8.1% 15.7 0.1 0.2 3.7
11-9 0.5% 6.0% 6.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.9% 28.9% 0.0% 15.0 71.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 14.0 0.5 18.6 60.9 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%
Lose Out 0.3%