Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#214
Expected Predictive Rating+1.7#145
Pace66.0#274
Improvement-1.3#263

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#243
First Shot-3.4#274
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#132
Layup/Dunks-8.4#359
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.2#3
Freethrows-0.9#240
Improvement+0.4#145

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#191
First Shot+2.0#113
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#337
Layups/Dunks-0.6#203
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#108
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement-1.6#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 20.9% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 92.2% 93.7% 78.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.0% 91.0% 72.9%
Conference Champion 31.0% 32.9% 14.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 2.8%
First Four1.8% 1.7% 2.4%
First Round19.1% 20.0% 11.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 89.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 32 - 33 - 5
Quad 416 - 619 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 133 @UNLV W 86-81 22%     1 - 0 +9.7 +4.1 +5.0
  Wed, Nov 12 108 @Bradley W 78-67 16%     2 - 0 +17.9 +6.3 +11.1
  Tue, Nov 18 113 @Florida St. L 73-87 18%     2 - 1 -7.5 -2.1 -4.4
  Sat, Nov 22 320 Prairie View W 69-68 72%     3 - 1 -8.5 -7.6 -0.9
  Sun, Nov 23 207 Southern Miss L 60-70 48%     3 - 2 -13.0 +0.8 -16.4
  Tue, Dec 2 239 Charleston Southern W 73-56 66%     4 - 2 +9.4 +1.5 +9.0
  Sun, Dec 7 281 Alabama St. W 74-64 72%     5 - 2 +0.5 -0.7 +1.8
  Wed, Dec 10 130 @Southern Illinois L 54-83 21%     5 - 3 -24.0 -15.2 -8.9
  Thu, Dec 18 237 @Tennessee St. L 71-78 42%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -8.5 -1.0 -7.5
  Sat, Dec 20 285 @Tennessee Tech W 86-62 51%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +20.4 +20.4 +2.5
  Thu, Jan 1 356 Western Illinois W 74-61 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 325 Eastern Illinois W 72-63 81%    
  Thu, Jan 8 307 @Morehead St. W 70-68 57%    
  Sat, Jan 10 339 @Southern Indiana W 72-67 67%    
  Thu, Jan 15 249 SIU Edwardsville W 69-64 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 229 Lindenwood W 76-72 63%    
  Tue, Jan 20 215 @Southeast Missouri St. L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Jan 24 309 Arkansas Little Rock W 73-65 77%    
  Thu, Jan 29 325 @Eastern Illinois W 69-66 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 356 @Western Illinois W 71-64 74%    
  Thu, Feb 5 339 Southern Indiana W 75-64 83%    
  Sat, Feb 7 307 Morehead St. W 73-65 76%    
  Thu, Feb 12 229 @Lindenwood L 73-75 42%    
  Sat, Feb 14 249 @SIU Edwardsville L 66-67 45%    
  Tue, Feb 17 215 Southeast Missouri St. W 75-72 61%    
  Thu, Feb 19 309 @Arkansas Little Rock W 70-68 57%    
  Thu, Feb 26 285 Tennessee Tech W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 237 Tennessee St. W 73-69 64%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.3 6.0 8.5 7.5 4.4 1.7 0.4 31.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.9 6.9 2.8 0.6 0.1 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.9 5.1 1.4 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.6 4.3 1.0 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.5 0.9 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.0 0.9 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.8 0.1 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.0 5.3 8.3 11.3 13.7 15.2 14.4 11.4 8.1 4.5 1.7 0.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
17-3 98.7% 4.4    4.2 0.2
16-4 92.2% 7.5    6.3 1.1 0.0
15-5 74.2% 8.5    5.4 2.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 41.7% 6.0    2.3 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 14.8% 2.3    0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.0% 31.0 20.7 7.5 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.4% 57.4% 57.4% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
18-2 1.7% 49.8% 49.8% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9
17-3 4.5% 45.0% 45.0% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.5
16-4 8.1% 38.9% 38.9% 14.6 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.2 5.0
15-5 11.4% 34.0% 34.0% 15.0 0.0 0.7 2.4 0.7 7.5
14-6 14.4% 27.0% 27.0% 15.2 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.3 10.5
13-7 15.2% 19.3% 19.3% 15.5 0.1 1.3 1.5 12.3
12-8 13.7% 10.9% 10.9% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 12.2
11-9 11.3% 8.0% 8.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 10.4
10-10 8.3% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.1 0.3 7.9
9-11 5.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.1
8-12 3.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.9
7-13 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-14 0.8% 0.8
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 9.1 5.9 80.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.3 9.1 53.0 37.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%