Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.0 299
Expected Predictive Rating -8.4 301
Pace 66.1 248
Improvement +5.3 20

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 276 D C D+ F F+
Defense D+ 296 F C- B- C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 304 C+ 60% 118 -1.7 246
2 Pt. Jumpers 61% 11 F 29% 361 +1.8 84
Three Pointers 33% 334 C+ 35% 146 -3.8 309
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.8 350 C- -1.9 246
1st FG Attempt D 0.95 293
Second Chance C 30.3% 183 C- 1.01 205 C 0.31 185
Turnovers D+ 18.6% 292
Freethrows F+ 0.23 358 F+ 66% 354 F 0.15 363
Total Offense D+ -3.9 276

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 55 A- 6.8% 19
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 104 B- 3.7% 89
Three Pointers D 78% 304 C+ 0.8% 156
Total C 56% 160 B+ 3.8% 21

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 153 F+ 66% 353 +3.8 309
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 357 B 35% 74 -3.2 3
Three Pointers 47% 33 F 40% 362 +7.0 359
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 340 F +6.4 361
1st FG Attempt F 1.17 362
Second Chance F+ 35.9% 346 B 0.92 42 C- 0.33 234
Turnovers B- 18.3% 91
Freethrows C+ 0.29 129 C+ 71% 108 C+ 0.20 111
Total Defense D+ -4.0 296

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 231 C- 9.9% 213
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 336 A+ 14.7% 1
Three Pointers D+ 88% 287 D+ 0.5% 264
Total D- 63% 332 C+ 6.1% 134

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 272 16.9 108
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 153 0.23 341
Improvement +3.0 #54 +2.2 #68

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 313 295 269
Conference Record 8 - 12 10 - 10 11 - 9
Conference Finish 7 7 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 64% 90% 43%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 45.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 411 - 1011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 269 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72 - 92 32% -7  4% 0 - 1 F -23 D -6 D B- F F -17 F F C+
 Wed, Nov 12 87 @Marquette L 49 - 89 6% -18  6% 0 - 2 F -31 F -19 F F F F -13 F B C-
 Sat, Nov 15 313 @Ball St. W 68 - 62 43% +2  57% 1 - 2 C -0 D -5 C+ A+ F B +5 F+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 18 124 @Murray St. L 68 - 89 11% -16  2% 1 - 3 F+ -15 D+ -4 F A- F F -13 F F D
 Fri, Nov 21 225 @Texas St. L 56 - 65 24% -5  5% 1 - 4 D -10 F -14 F D F B +4 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 128 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 74 11% -1  37% 1 - 5 C- -4 C+ +3 A D+ F D- -8 F C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 180 @Central Arkansas L 47 - 85 18% -29  1% 1 - 6 F -36 F -29 F D- F D- -7 F B- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 140 Arkansas St. L 78 - 90 28% -8  1% 1 - 7 D- -14 C- -0 A F B F -13 F D D-
 Tue, Dec 9 55 @West Virginia L 58 - 90 4% -22  0% 1 - 8 F -19 C- -1 F+ B+ B- F -22 F C+ C
 Tue, Dec 16 286 @Morehead St. L 64 - 78 36% -10  9% 1 - 9 0 - 1 F -18 F -19 F D+ F B- +2 D- D A+
 Thu, Dec 18 341 @Southern Indiana W 77 - 62 55% +4  73% 2 - 9 1 - 1 B- +6 C+ +3 A+ F F B- +3 D- D C-
 Thu, Jan 1 314 Tennessee Tech W 77 - 58 67% +5  75% 3 - 9 2 - 1 B- +7 D+ -2 B- D- D+ A +10 A+ C- A
 Sat, Jan 3 247 Tennessee St. L 79 - 84 48% -3  4% 3 - 10 2 - 2 D- -13 D- -6 F B C D -6 C+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 248 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 70 28% -6  6% 4 - 10 3 - 2 C +1 A- +9 C C+ A D- -8 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 260 @Lindenwood W 82 - 74 30% +5  88% 5 - 10 4 - 2 B- +5 B+ +9 B B+ D+ D+ -4 F D+ A-
 Thu, Jan 15 320 Eastern Illinois W 74 - 63 69% -4  7% 6 - 10 5 - 2 C- -2 C+ +3 C B+ C D+ -4 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 362 Western Illinois W 86 - 79 88% +6  87% 7 - 10 6 - 2 D- -14 B- +5 C- D+ A- F -18 F D F
 Thu, Jan 22 227 @Southeast Missouri St. L 65 - 70 24% -5  13% 7 - 11 6 - 3 D+ -6 D- -6 F D+ A+ C+ +0 D- A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 247 @Tennessee St. L 63 - 70 27% +2  63% 7 - 12 6 - 4 D -9 F -14 F B+ C B+ +5 D C A-
 Sat, Jan 31 314 @Tennessee Tech L 77 - 87 44% -8  10% 7 - 13 6 - 5 F+ -16 C +0 B+ F B- F -17 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 3 217 @Tennessee Martin L 52 - 55 23% -1  25% 7 - 14 6 - 6 C- -3 F -14 D- C F A +10 D+ B- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 260 Lindenwood L 74 - 79 53% -0  36% 7 - 15 6 - 7 D- -14 C- -1 F A+ A F -13 D- D D-
 Sat, Feb 7 248 SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 71 49% -9  0% 7 - 16 6 - 8 F -18 F -12 F+ F+ A- D- -7 F+ A D+
 Thu, Feb 12 362 @Western Illinois W 77 - 58 74% +7  82% 8 - 16 7 - 8 C+ +4 D -5 F+ C- A A +9 D+ A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 320 @Eastern Illinois L 72 - 78 47% -2  25% 8 - 17 7 - 9 D- -13 C +1 D+ C+ B F -15 C- F F
 Thu, Feb 19 217 Tennessee Martin W 67 - 65 43% -2  27% 9 - 17 8 - 9 C- -4 C+ +3 C+ A+ C- D- -7 B- D- F
 Sat, Feb 21 227 Southeast Missouri St. L 71 - 72 45%
 Thu, Feb 26 286 Morehead St. W 74 - 72 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 341 Southern Indiana W 73 - 66 75%
Totals 11 - 18 10 - 10 -8 D+ -4 F C- F+ D+ -4 C+ F+ F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C+ F C+ C- 34% 61% 33% F+ D C C- C D+ F+ F+ F D+ F+ B F F 39% 14% 47% D- F F+ B C- B- C+ C+ C+
1.03 60% 29% 35% -2 -2 0.95 30% 1.0 .31 19% .23 66% .15 1.14 66% 35% 40% +6 +1 1.17 36% 0.9 .33 18% .29 71% .16
Nov
10		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee D D F A+ D 52% 20% 28% C+ D D A+ B- F D- F F F F C+ F F 30% 16% 54% D+ F D+ F F C+ F F F
1.04 54% 20% 43% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.5 .39 22% .28 67% .18 1.32 73% 38% 44% +13 0 1.28 33% 1.7 .56 16% .39 78% .31
Nov
12		 Marquette F C+ F B+ F 36% 30% 34% D- F C F F F C+ F F+ F F A+ F F 59% 4% 37% F+ F F A+ B C- C A B-
0.73 59% 0% 38% -9 -1 0.81 31% 0.5 .14 30% .28 54% .15 1.33 70% 0% 47% +13 +4 1.35 44% 0.6 .25 13% .31 61% .19
Nov
15		 Ball St. D A- F A+ B- 41% 34% 24% D- C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F B C- D C- F+ 41% 11% 48% F+ F+ A+ F C A+ F B- D-
1.01 71% 21% 50% +5 -2 1.10 46% 1.5 .69 34% .25 45% .11 0.92 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 14% 1.5 .21 22% .36 68% .25
Nov
18		 Murray St. D+ D+ F C- F+ 48% 40% 13% F+ F A C+ A- F C+ B- C+ F A+ F F F 38% 13% 50% D+ F D F F D F+ C+ D-
1.03 52% 26% 33% -8 -2 0.83 43% 1.1 .46 21% .31 75% .23 1.34 44% 83% 46% +9 +1 1.23 37% 1.4 .50 14% .40 74% .30
Nov
21		 Texas St. F F F D+ F 56% 18% 27% B- F B- F D F B- F+ C B F B- D- F 51% 24% 24% F+ F F A+ A+ A+ D- A+ B-
0.87 44% 25% 33% -10 +2 0.84 32% 0.7 .21 23% .36 67% .24 1.01 74% 36% 36% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.2 .07 26% .34 56% .19
Nov
29		 Southern Illinois C+ A+ A+ F A 34% 23% 43% D+ A B- F D+ F D- F F D- D F F F 49% 17% 34% F F D- A C+ A+ F A D
1.02 81% 55% 25% +6 -1 1.13 31% 0.8 .24 25% .23 45% .10 1.16 65% 86% 43% +16 +1 1.37 35% 0.8 .26 23% .41 60% .25
Dec
3		 Central Arkansas F F F F F 37% 24% 39% D F C- F D- F F F F D- F F+ F 33% 0% 67% F F F A+ B- B+ B- D+ C+
0.66 44% 17% 26% -15 -1 0.71 26% 0.9 .24 29% .18 22% .04 1.19 72% 39% +10 +2 1.26 36% 0.7 .25 20% .24 71% .17
Dec
6		 Arkansas St. C- A+ D A+ A+ 27% 38% 35% F A F A+ F B D- F F F F A+ C- F 36% 7% 57% D F C F+ D D- A+ F A+
1.09 73% 33% 53% +12 -3 1.20 9% 1.3 .13 13% .27 59% .16 1.26 80% 25% 34% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.2 .44 17% .15 100% .15
Dec
9		 West Virginia C- C F C D 27% 37% 37% F F+ A- C B+ B- A- F C+ F F+ F F F 41% 4% 54% F F F A+ C+ C C A+ B+
0.92 54% 17% 33% -9 -3 0.78 33% 1.0 .33 18% .31 63% .19 1.43 68% 100% 56% +25 +2 1.57 48% 0.7 .35 16% .32 53% .17
Dec
16		 Morehead St. F B- F F F 38% 32% 30% F F F A+ D+ F A C A- B- D- A+ F D 57% 22% 22% F D- F C+ D A+ F D+ F
0.86 61% 27% 21% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.7 .29 19% .41 72% .30 1.05 65% 20% 40% +2 +1 1.09 42% 0.8 .35 24% .44 76% .34
Dec
18		 Southern Indiana C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% C A+ B+ F F F B+ F C B- D+ A+ D D 38% 15% 48% F+ D- A F D C- C- A+ A-
1.14 74% 50% 47% +17 +1 1.37 39% 0.2 .06 25% .38 63% .24 0.92 56% 0% 35% -6 +1 0.92 21% 1.4 .29 16% .32 44% .14
Jan
1		 Tennessee Tech D+ A+ C+ D B+ 28% 32% 40% F B- F B- D- D+ A F B+ A A A+ A A+ 23% 21% 56% B A+ F A+ C- A D- F F+
1.14 92% 40% 32% +9 -2 1.15 23% 1.3 .29 16% .39 68% .26 0.86 45% 10% 26% -16 -1 0.69 44% 0.8 .33 24% .33 82% .27
Jan
3		 Tennessee St. D- C F D+ F 42% 27% 31% F F C+ A- B C A+ C- A D D A+ A- B- 49% 25% 26% F C+ D F F D+ D- F+ F+
1.06 60% 23% 33% -4 -1 0.94 33% 1.2 .41 19% .48 72% .35 1.13 64% 14% 27% -6 0 0.91 35% 1.3 .45 15% .33 81% .27
Jan
8		 SIU Edwardsville A- A- D- C C+ 29% 40% 31% F C A D- C+ A A+ F+ A D- B D- F F 23% 28% 49% B- F F C+ F A+ F+ C D-
1.16 64% 32% 33% -1 -3 0.94 42% 0.8 .34 11% .45 68% .31 1.12 50% 42% 43% +6 -2 1.09 45% 1.0 .45 26% .34 69% .24
Jan
10		 Lindenwood B+ A+ B- D A- 42% 34% 25% F B A+ D- B+ D+ F A+ D+ D+ F+ F C F 43% 12% 45% D- F D C D+ A- B F C
1.19 77% 39% 31% +7 -1 1.13 47% 0.9 .43 19% .25 86% .22 1.08 67% 50% 32% +4 +1 1.12 34% 1.1 .38 23% .27 79% .21
Jan
15		 Eastern Illinois C+ A F B- B- 32% 30% 39% F C A C- B+ C C- B+ C+ D+ A C- F F+ 31% 31% 38% B- D- D F F A+ A- D- B
1.15 71% 31% 35% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.1 .47 19% .32 82% .27 0.98 43% 36% 41% -1 -2 0.96 30% 1.6 .47 26% .21 80% .17
Jan
17		 Western Illinois B- A+ F A+ C 31% 26% 43% F C- D- B D+ A- F+ A+ B- F F D- A F 39% 26% 35% D+ F F A+ D F F C+ F+
1.27 76% 14% 43% +6 -1 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 10% .25 100% .25 1.17 71% 43% 26% +2 -1 1.06 44% 0.7 .29 12% .39 65% .25
Jan
22		 Southeast Missouri St. D- F F A+ F 37% 30% 33% F+ F D- B D+ A+ F D F C+ F+ B- C+ D- 43% 12% 45% D D- A A+ A+ C- D- D D-
0.96 35% 25% 44% -7 -1 0.85 22% 1.3 .27 12% .28 71% .20 1.03 67% 33% 32% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.7 .14 16% .37 71% .26
Jan
29		 Tennessee St. F D F F F 28% 30% 43% F F C A+ B+ C F A+ F B+ D B+ C- D 43% 23% 34% F+ D B F C A- F A+ D-
0.91 53% 19% 22% -15 -2 0.69 33% 1.4 .44 19% .16 89% .14 1.01 63% 30% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.2 .33 20% .42 61% .25
Jan
31		 Tennessee Tech C B A+ B A- 48% 28% 24% C- B+ F+ F F B- D B+ D+ F F F F F 44% 7% 49% F F F A+ F A+ F F F
1.13 65% 53% 38% +9 0 1.20 23% 0.7 .15 13% .25 80% .20 1.28 68% 67% 43% +13 +2 1.33 60% 0.7 .43 31% .45 86% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Tennessee Martin F C- C F D- 41% 30% 28% D+ D- D- A- C F F D+ F A F B B- D+ 20% 8% 73% D+ D+ C+ B- B- A+ A A+ A+
0.84 58% 36% 23% -5 -1 0.89 28% 1.1 .31 27% .07 67% .04 0.89 75% 33% 31% 0 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .29 27% .22 50% .11
Feb
5		 Lindenwood C- D+ A- F F 34% 26% 40% F F B- A+ A+ A D+ C+ C- F A- A F F+ 45% 25% 29% B- D- F A- D D- D- C D
1.09 56% 43% 19% -8 -1 0.83 36% 1.4 .51 13% .31 72% .22 1.17 48% 23% 53% 0 0 1.02 41% 0.9 .38 16% .37 67% .25
Feb
7		 SIU Edwardsville F A F A C- 11% 54% 35% F F+ C F F+ A- F D- F D- F A+ F F 33% 27% 39% C- F+ A+ C+ A D+ C F D-
0.90 67% 23% 40% -4 -6 0.81 33% 0.6 .20 12% .17 70% .12 1.05 76% 14% 40% +3 -1 1.06 17% 1.0 .17 16% .27 87% .23
Feb
12		 Western Illinois D D F A+ F+ 42% 27% 31% D- F+ D+ C+ C- A F F F A F A+ A+ C 43% 13% 43% F D+ A+ A+ A+ D- C A+ A
1.09 56% 19% 44% -1 -1 0.98 31% 1.2 .36 10% .20 54% .11 0.82 65% 14% 22% -8 +1 0.89 13% 0.6 .08 14% .30 44% .13
Feb
14		 Eastern Illinois C F B+ B- C 33% 33% 33% F D+ C+ C C+ B C- F F+ F A A F C 46% 25% 29% F+ C- F A F F F C+ F
1.08 47% 47% 35% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 17% .32 61% .20 1.17 41% 25% 43% -7 0 0.88 49% 0.8 .39 12% .51 73% .38
Feb
19		 Tennessee Martin C+ A+ F A+ B+ 23% 47% 30% F C+ C A+ A+ C- B+ F C D- C- A+ C+ B 31% 18% 51% C B- F A- D- F A+ D A
1.12 80% 25% 46% +5 -4 1.02 33% 1.6 .53 20% .38 61% .23 1.09 60% 11% 32% -6 0 0.90 53% 0.7 .38 15% .20 70% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 0.9 5th
6th 1.5 6.2 7.7 6th
7th 3.6 27.8 42.2 13.3 86.9 7th
8th 2.4 1.8 4.2 8th
9th 0.3 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 6.3 29.6 43.7 20.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 20.3% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6 19.8
10-10 43.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.9 42.8
9-11 29.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.5 29.2
8-12 6.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.3
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 16.0 98.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 16.0 1.8 98.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%
Lose Out 5.2%