Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.0 #302
Expected Predictive Rating -9.2 #305
Pace 67.0 #242
Improvement +4.7 #11

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #304 D D- C- F D-
Defense #272 F C+ C B- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #213 1.21 #115 +0.2 #165
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #38 0.54 #358 +0.3 #166
Three Pointers 34% #322 0.98 #223 -4.4 #314
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #283 -3.9 #284
Freethrows 16.1 #249 64% #348 10.3 #305
Second Chance 30.6% #191 0.97 #268 0.30 #233
Turnovers 21.6% #360
Total Offense -5.0 #304

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #96 1.35 #350 -5.9 #346
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #363 0.73 #155 +3.3 #7
Three Pointers 46% #52 1.22 #357 -7.5 #360
1st FG Attempt 1.22 #364 -10.1 #364
Freethrows 16.6 #153 71% #108 11.7 #233
Second Chance 34.9% #319 0.94 #67 0.33 #201
Turnovers 18.2% #94
Total Defense -3.0 #272

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #319 2.7% #357
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.2% #256 16.7% #361
Possession Length 18.4 #294 16.8 #116
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #115 0.26 #358
Improvement +1.8 #64 +2.8 #36

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 6.7% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 6.7% 13.2% 3.8%
.500 or above in Conference 49.2% 67.9% 40.5%
Conference Champion 3.4% 6.6% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 1.2% 4.6%
First Four3.0% 4.4% 2.3%
First Round2.8% 4.6% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Away) - 31.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 410 - 1011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 10 202 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72-92 21%     -7.0   0 - 1 -19.5 -1.5 -18.2
  Wed, Nov 12 110 @Marquette L 49-89 8%     -18.2   0 - 2 -32.7 -16.2 -18.4
  Sat, Nov 15 318 @Ball St. W 68-62 44%     1.7   1 - 2 -0.3 -4.4 +4.3
  Tue, Nov 18 91 @Murray St. L 68-89 6%     -16.0   1 - 3 -11.9 +1.0 -14.1
  Fri, Nov 21 267 @Texas St. L 56-65 31%     -4.9   1 - 4 -12.0 -13.0 +0.3
  Sat, Nov 29 130 @Southern Illinois L 65-74 12%     -0.8   1 - 5 -4.1 +2.9 -7.9
  Wed, Dec 3 254 @Central Arkansas L 47-85 29%     -28.6   1 - 6 -40.4 -28.2 -11.4
  Sat, Dec 6 128 Arkansas St. L 78-90 25%     -7.7   1 - 7 -13.0 +2.1 -14.9
  Tue, Dec 9 67 @West Virginia L 58-90 5%     -21.7   1 - 8 -20.4 -1.4 -22.7
  Tue, Dec 16 303 @Morehead St. L 64-78 39%     -10.1   1 - 9 0 - 1 -19.1 -14.3 -4.0
  Thu, Dec 18 328 @Southern Indiana W 77-62 47%     4.2   2 - 9 1 - 1 +7.7 +6.2 +2.1
  Thu, Jan 1 312 Tennessee Tech W 77-58 65%     5.4   3 - 9 2 - 1 +7.2 +0.8 +7.0
  Sat, Jan 3 231 Tennessee St. L 79-84 46%     -3.3   3 - 10 2 - 2 -11.9 -0.5 -11.0
  Thu, Jan 8 264 @SIU Edwardsville L 64-69 32%    
  Sat, Jan 10 235 @Lindenwood L 70-77 26%    
  Thu, Jan 15 317 Eastern Illinois W 69-65 65%    
  Sat, Jan 17 357 Western Illinois W 72-63 80%    
  Thu, Jan 22 222 @Southeast Missouri St. L 69-77 24%    
  Sat, Jan 24 239 @Tennessee Martin L 65-72 27%    
  Thu, Jan 29 231 @Tennessee St. L 70-77 25%    
  Sat, Jan 31 312 @Tennessee Tech L 72-74 42%    
  Thu, Feb 5 235 Lindenwood L 73-74 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 264 SIU Edwardsville W 67-66 53%    
  Thu, Feb 12 357 @Western Illinois W 69-66 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 317 @Eastern Illinois L 66-68 45%    
  Thu, Feb 19 239 Tennessee Martin L 68-69 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 222 Southeast Missouri St. L 72-74 44%    
  Thu, Feb 26 303 Morehead St. W 71-68 61%    
  Sat, Feb 28 328 Southern Indiana W 73-68 69%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 3.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.8 3.6 0.5 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.1 5.3 1.0 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.0 6.9 1.7 0.1 14.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.5 7.1 2.6 0.1 15.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 4.1 6.7 2.6 0.2 14.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 4.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.0 0.1 5.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.0 6.4 10.2 14.0 15.8 15.9 13.2 9.5 5.8 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 96.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-5 78.0% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 41.2% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 10.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.4% 30.8% 30.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
15-5 1.3% 30.3% 30.3% 15.8 0.1 0.3 0.9
14-6 3.1% 26.3% 26.3% 15.9 0.1 0.7 2.3
13-7 5.8% 14.3% 14.3% 15.9 0.1 0.8 5.0
12-8 9.5% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8 8.7
11-9 13.2% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.6 12.5
10-10 15.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.4 15.5
9-11 15.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 15.6
8-12 14.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.9
7-13 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.2
6-14 6.4% 6.4
5-15 3.0% 3.0
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.9 95.7 0.0%