Arkansas Little Rock
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#288
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#228
Pace74.2#71
Improvement-1.9#321

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#303
First Shot-2.8#265
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#296
Layup/Dunks-1.6#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.1#353
Freethrows+2.5#38
Improvement-0.6#249

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#237
First Shot-0.2#178
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#279
Layups/Dunks+0.2#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#345
Freethrows+2.0#71
Improvement-1.3#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 2.4% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 8.4% 26.4% 7.9%
.500 or above in Conference 19.8% 37.6% 19.3%
Conference Champion 1.0% 4.0% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 32.9% 21.6% 33.2%
First Four0.5% 0.0% 0.5%
First Round0.9% 2.4% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 2.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 93 - 13
Quad 47 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 156   Southern Illinois W 69-66 33%     1 - 0 +0.7 -6.0 +6.5
  Nov 17, 2021 129   @ Loyola Marymount L 63-82 13%     1 - 1 -13.6 -15.5 +3.6
  Nov 21, 2021 217   Sam Houston St. L 59-77 33%     1 - 2 -20.4 -14.4 -6.2
  Nov 22, 2021 310   Northern Illinois W 67-60 56%     2 - 2 -1.3 -5.6 +4.5
  Nov 26, 2021 142   @ Tulsa L 63-77 14%     2 - 3 -9.2 -8.2 -1.2
  Dec 01, 2021 42   @ Colorado St. L 66-86 3%    
  Dec 04, 2021 25   @ Arkansas L 65-88 1%    
  Dec 08, 2021 93   Missouri St. L 70-80 19%    
  Dec 14, 2021 340   @ Central Arkansas W 77-74 60%    
  Dec 21, 2021 147   Jacksonville St. L 66-71 32%    
  Dec 30, 2021 180   Georgia Southern L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 01, 2022 140   Georgia St. L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 06, 2022 260   @ Louisiana Monroe L 71-75 34%    
  Jan 08, 2022 183   @ Louisiana L 71-80 22%    
  Jan 13, 2022 231   @ Arkansas St. L 67-74 28%    
  Jan 15, 2022 231   Arkansas St. L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 20, 2022 152   Texas St. L 64-69 33%    
  Jan 22, 2022 237   Texas Arlington L 70-71 50%    
  Jan 27, 2022 227   @ Coastal Carolina L 70-77 26%    
  Jan 29, 2022 172   @ Appalachian St. L 61-71 20%    
  Feb 03, 2022 183   Louisiana L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 05, 2022 260   Louisiana Monroe W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 10, 2022 157   @ South Alabama L 65-75 18%    
  Feb 12, 2022 242   @ Troy L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 17, 2022 237   @ Texas Arlington L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 19, 2022 152   @ Texas St. L 61-72 17%    
  Feb 24, 2022 172   Appalachian St. L 64-68 38%    
  Feb 26, 2022 227   Coastal Carolina L 73-74 47%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 2.0 0.4 4.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.0 1.7 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 4.3 3.1 0.4 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 4.4 4.5 0.7 0.0 10.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.6 5.9 1.5 0.0 13.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.4 6.1 5.9 2.0 0.2 17.1 11th
12th 0.8 2.7 5.5 6.7 5.0 1.7 0.2 22.7 12th
Total 0.8 2.7 6.1 9.2 12.3 13.4 13.6 12.0 10.0 7.9 5.3 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 90.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 78.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 37.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 11.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 21.4% 21.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.9% 6.9% 6.9% 15.0 0.1 0.8
12-6 1.8% 6.1% 6.1% 15.4 0.1 0.0 1.7
11-7 3.4% 5.1% 5.1% 15.4 0.1 0.1 3.2
10-8 5.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.1
9-9 7.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.7
8-10 10.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.9
7-11 12.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 11.9
6-12 13.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.6
5-13 13.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.4
4-14 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.3
3-15 9.2% 9.2
2-16 6.1% 6.1
1-17 2.7% 2.7
0-18 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%