Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#233
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#156
Pace71.0#128
Improvement+0.8#134

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#286
First Shot-2.3#239
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#289
Layup/Dunks-2.7#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#81
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#200
Freethrows-0.8#227
Improvement-1.8#309

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#158
First Shot+5.4#38
After Offensive Rebounds-5.1#362
Layups/Dunks+5.7#35
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#195
Freethrows-2.3#309
Improvement+2.6#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.6% 27.5% 20.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 86.3% 91.7% 78.7%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 90.6% 84.4%
Conference Champion 33.6% 37.5% 28.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.7% 1.6%
First Four6.1% 5.5% 6.8%
First Round21.6% 24.8% 17.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Home) - 58.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 21 - 5
Quad 417 - 719 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 179   @ Winthrop L 67-82 29%     0 - 1 -13.0 -11.1 -0.3
  Nov 12, 2024 130   @ Arkansas St. L 63-80 21%     0 - 2 -12.4 -3.3 -9.9
  Nov 16, 2024 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 81-64 42%     1 - 2 +15.3 +3.3 +11.5
  Nov 20, 2024 225   @ Tulsa W 71-57 37%     2 - 2 +13.4 +6.8 +8.2
  Nov 22, 2024 33   @ Arkansas L 67-79 4%     2 - 3 +3.7 -2.8 +7.5
  Nov 25, 2024 14   @ Illinois L 34-92 3%     2 - 4 -39.7 -29.3 -11.6
  Nov 27, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-59 89%     3 - 4 +1.8 -1.0 +3.3
  Dec 04, 2024 337   Central Arkansas W 63-57 81%     4 - 4 -7.3 -17.8 +10.3
  Dec 15, 2024 217   Illinois-Chicago W 75-73 59%    
  Dec 19, 2024 273   SIU Edwardsville W 70-65 68%    
  Dec 21, 2024 316   Eastern Illinois W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 02, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Martin W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 04, 2025 318   @ Tennessee St. W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 09, 2025 266   Morehead St. W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 11, 2025 293   Southern Indiana W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 14, 2025 295   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 330   @ Tennessee Tech W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 23, 2025 324   @ Western Illinois W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 354   @ Lindenwood W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 30, 2025 318   Tennessee St. W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 01, 2025 328   Tennessee Martin W 75-66 77%    
  Feb 06, 2025 293   @ Southern Indiana L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 266   @ Morehead St. L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 11, 2025 295   Southeast Missouri St. W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 13, 2025 330   Tennessee Tech W 75-66 78%    
  Feb 20, 2025 354   Lindenwood W 76-64 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 324   Western Illinois W 71-63 77%    
  Feb 27, 2025 316   @ Eastern Illinois W 69-67 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 273   @ SIU Edwardsville L 67-68 47%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 4.6 7.8 8.3 6.3 3.3 1.4 0.3 33.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 5.4 6.7 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 4.8 4.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 7.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 2.9 0.9 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.8 0.1 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 5.0 7.5 9.8 11.3 12.8 13.3 12.0 9.6 6.6 3.3 1.4 0.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
18-2 99.6% 3.3    3.3 0.1
17-3 95.8% 6.3    5.8 0.5 0.0
16-4 86.7% 8.3    6.5 1.7 0.1
15-5 64.6% 7.8    4.8 2.6 0.4 0.0
14-6 34.4% 4.6    1.7 2.0 0.8 0.1
13-7 11.4% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 33.6% 33.6 24.0 7.5 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 60.9% 60.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
19-1 1.4% 63.0% 63.0% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5
18-2 3.3% 53.9% 53.9% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.5
17-3 6.6% 49.0% 49.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 0.4 3.4
16-4 9.6% 41.9% 41.9% 15.2 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.2 5.6
15-5 12.0% 37.7% 37.7% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.5 7.5
14-6 13.3% 30.8% 30.8% 15.8 0.1 0.9 3.1 9.2
13-7 12.8% 21.2% 21.2% 15.9 0.0 0.4 2.3 10.1
12-8 11.3% 14.6% 14.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.5 9.7
11-9 9.8% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8 9.0
10-10 7.5% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.4 7.1
9-11 5.0% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.2 4.8
8-12 3.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.1
7-13 2.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.0
6-14 1.1% 1.1
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 7.9 12.6 75.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.2 2.5 7.5 53.8 36.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%