UNLV
Mountain West
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#145
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#114
Pace64.8#288
Improvement-1.0#255

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#175
First Shot+0.8#152
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#237
Layup/Dunks-2.1#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#119
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#168
Freethrows+2.1#59
Improvement+1.1#69

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#112
First Shot+1.8#111
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#197
Layups/Dunks+3.0#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#148
Freethrows-1.4#260
Improvement-2.1#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.4% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 1.0% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.2 11.6 12.5
.500 or above 47.8% 65.5% 40.9%
.500 or above in Conference 43.8% 52.3% 40.5%
Conference Champion 2.0% 3.0% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 2.3% 4.9%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round2.2% 3.1% 1.9%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 28.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 7
Quad 22 - 52 - 12
Quad 35 - 37 - 15
Quad 48 - 115 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 187   Gardner-Webb W 64-58 71%     1 - 0 +1.8 -12.3 +14.0
  Nov 13, 2021 121   California W 55-52 57%     2 - 0 +2.9 -8.8 +12.0
  Nov 15, 2021 166   North Dakota St. W 64-62 67%     3 - 0 -1.0 -6.3 +5.4
  Nov 19, 2021 16   Michigan L 61-74 11%     3 - 1 +2.0 -0.4 +1.6
  Nov 21, 2021 53   Wichita St. L 73-74 26%     3 - 2 +7.4 +6.5 +0.9
  Nov 27, 2021 6   UCLA L 51-73 12%     3 - 3 -7.5 -8.8 -1.8
  Dec 01, 2021 100   @ SMU L 67-73 28%    
  Dec 04, 2021 50   @ San Francisco L 61-72 15%    
  Dec 08, 2021 176   Seattle W 72-67 68%    
  Dec 11, 2021 265   Hartford W 73-63 83%    
  Dec 15, 2021 331   Nebraska Omaha W 76-60 92%    
  Dec 22, 2021 154   San Diego W 68-64 64%    
  Jan 01, 2022 49   San Diego St. L 59-64 33%    
  Jan 05, 2022 294   @ San Jose St. W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 08, 2022 258   @ Air Force W 63-59 65%    
  Jan 11, 2022 230   New Mexico W 77-69 75%    
  Jan 14, 2022 130   Fresno St. W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 18, 2022 49   @ San Diego St. L 56-67 17%    
  Jan 22, 2022 294   San Jose St. W 75-63 85%    
  Jan 28, 2022 42   @ Colorado St. L 66-78 15%    
  Feb 01, 2022 92   Nevada L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 05, 2022 46   @ Utah St. L 63-74 16%    
  Feb 08, 2022 258   Air Force W 66-56 80%    
  Feb 11, 2022 68   @ Boise St. L 59-68 23%    
  Feb 16, 2022 130   @ Fresno St. L 62-66 36%    
  Feb 19, 2022 42   Colorado St. L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 22, 2022 92   @ Nevada L 68-75 26%    
  Feb 26, 2022 68   Boise St. L 62-65 41%    
  Mar 02, 2022 78   Wyoming L 67-69 43%    
  Mar 05, 2022 230   @ New Mexico W 74-72 56%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.9 2.6 0.8 0.1 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.9 1.2 0.1 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.4 2.3 0.2 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.6 6.6 3.0 0.2 15.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 5.5 6.9 2.9 0.3 0.0 17.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 5.9 6.5 2.6 0.3 17.9 8th
9th 0.3 1.8 3.8 3.3 1.2 0.1 10.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.6 7.7 11.1 14.2 14.8 13.1 11.4 8.5 5.4 3.1 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 69.2% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 46.4% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1
13-5 20.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 60.0% 25.0% 35.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 46.7%
15-3 0.7% 36.9% 15.4% 21.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 25.5%
14-4 1.4% 18.1% 11.6% 6.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 7.4%
13-5 3.1% 14.4% 10.9% 3.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.7 4.0%
12-6 5.4% 5.7% 5.2% 0.6% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.1 0.6%
11-7 8.5% 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.2 0.1%
10-8 11.4% 1.9% 1.9% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.2
9-9 13.1% 1.8% 1.8% 13.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.9
8-10 14.8% 1.1% 1.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.6
7-11 14.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1
6-12 11.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 11.1
5-13 7.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.7
4-14 4.6% 4.6
3-15 2.5% 2.5
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.4% 1.9% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 97.6 0.5%