Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.6 16
Expected Predictive Rating +18.5 18
Pace 65.3 268
Improvement -0.1 188

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws
Shot Selection
Offense A- 32 B A+ C- B+ C+
Defense A 12 A- A- C+ B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 44 B 63% 73 +5.2 26
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 209 B- 41% 80 +0.2 164
Three Pointers 36% 274 B 37% 75 -0.8 211
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 117 B +3.9 62
1st FG Attempt B 1.11 56
Second Chance A+ 46.5% 1 C+ 1.07 116 A+ 0.50 3
Turnovers C- 17.8% 247
Freethrows A- 0.37 14 C- 71% 234 B+ 0.26 36
Total Offense A- +8.7 32

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A+ 70% 3 B+ 7.4% 26
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 69 C+ 4.8% 170
Three Pointers B- 88% 105 C+ 0.8% 161
Total A 69% 12 B 4.5% 58

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 310 B+ 51% 32 -5.1 40
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 125 B 34% 40 -0.4 159
Three Pointers 44% 79 A- 29% 21 -1.5 117
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 88 A- -6.4 12
1st FG Attempt A- 0.88 16
Second Chance A- 23.9% 10 B+ 0.91 38 A- 0.22 13
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 115
Freethrows C+ 0.29 143 A 66% 6 B 0.19 61
Total Defense A +9.9 12

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 37% 14 B- 14.1% 66
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 75 C 5.4% 133
Three Pointers B+ 77% 34 A 2.4% 16
Total B+ 48% 29 B- 7.0% 72

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.5 89 19.1 361
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 33 0.11 25
Improvement +0.0 #184 -0.1 #197

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 23 16 9
Conference Record 10 - 8 12 - 6 14 - 4
Conference Finish 6 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed 7 5 2
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round 2nd Round Final 4

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 1% 3% 0%
Top 2 Seed 7% 13% 2%
Top 4 Seed 47% 67% 35%
Top 6 Seed 91% 97% 87%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 4.6 3.9 5.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 4% 9% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round88% 92% 85%
Sweet Sixteen48% 55% 44%
Elite Eight19% 23% 17%
Final Four8% 10% 7%
Championship Game3% 4% 3%
National Champion1% 2% 1%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Away) - 37.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 9
Quad 26 - 114 - 10
Quad 33 - 017 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 175 Mercer W 76 - 61 97% +11  82% 1 - 0 B +11 D+ -3 D A+ F A+ +14 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 195 Northern Kentucky W 95 - 56 98% +18  94% 2 - 0 A+ +34 A+ +18 A- A+ B A+ +17 A+ C- A
 Wed, Nov 12 339 North Florida W 99 - 66 99% +15  91% 3 - 0 A +18 B- +4 C- A+ F A+ +12 A C- A-
 Mon, Nov 17 233 Rice W 91 - 66 98% +12  99% 4 - 0 A +18 A +12 B- A+ C B+ +7 B+ A+ D+
 Thu, Nov 20 247 Tennessee St. W 89 - 60 98% +22  98% 5 - 0 A +21 C- -2 D- A+ D- A+ +20 A A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 109 Rutgers W 85 - 60 91% +19  97% 6 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +15 A A+ D A+ +15 A- A A+
 Tue, Nov 25 6 Houston W 76 - 73 35% -2  33% 7 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +23 B+ A+ A+ B- +3 D+ A B+
 Wed, Nov 26 15 Kansas L 76 - 81 49% +3  70% 7 - 1 B+ +14 A +12 A- B+ A C+ +2 A A D+
 Tue, Dec 2 70 @Syracuse L 60 - 62 76% -2  14% 7 - 2 B +9 F+ -10 D B- F A+ +19 A A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 5 Illinois L 62 - 75 33% -4  6% 7 - 3 B +10 C+ +3 D- A+ F B+ +5 B B+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 12 Louisville W 83 - 62 59% +11  94% 8 - 3 A+ +37 A+ +15 A+ A B- A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 94 - 52 100% +26  86% 9 - 3 A +21 B+ +8 B+ B+ B A+ +13 A- B+ D+
 Tue, Dec 30 357 South Carolina St. W 105 - 54 100% +23  99% 10 - 3 A+ +33 A+ +24 A+ A+ B A +10 A- B- F
 Sat, Jan 3 17 @Arkansas L 75 - 86 39% -1  32% 10 - 4 0 - 1 B +11 C+ +2 B B- C- A +9 A+ B A+
 Tue, Jan 6 27 Texas W 85 - 71 73% +11  90% 11 - 4 1 - 1 A+ +26 A+ +15 A+ A+ F A+ +12 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 4 @Florida L 67 - 91 23% -10  22% 11 - 5 1 - 2 C+ +2 C +2 B C+ F B- +2 C- B+ D
 Tue, Jan 13 35 Texas A&M W 87 - 82 2OT 76% -3  15% 12 - 5 2 - 2 A- +16 C+ +2 F A+ D- A+ +14 A A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 25 Kentucky L 78 - 80 71% +7  97% 12 - 6 2 - 3 B +11 A+ +16 A+ C- D+ D -6 B F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 19 @Alabama W 79 - 73 40% -1  36% 13 - 6 3 - 3 A+ +27 A +13 A C+ C- A+ +14 A+ B D
 Wed, Jan 28 36 @Georgia W 86 - 85 OT 55% -1  42% 14 - 6 4 - 3 A +18 A+ +18 B A+ B C+ +0 D- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 33 Auburn W 77 - 69 75% +8  99% 15 - 6 5 - 3 A +20 B- +5 C+ B+ D- A+ +15 A+ B C+
 Tue, Feb 3 73 Mississippi W 84 - 66 89% +7  89% 16 - 6 6 - 3 A+ +23 A+ +18 B A+ A+ B+ +6 B- D+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 25 @Kentucky L 71 - 74 49% +5  86% 16 - 7 6 - 4 A- +16 B +6 B B D A +9 B+ B- D+
 Wed, Feb 11 69 @Mississippi St. W 73 - 64 76% +9  91% 17 - 7 7 - 4 A +20 B- +4 C+ A D+ A+ +16 A- A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 54 LSU W 73 - 63 85% +5  86% 18 - 7 8 - 4 A- +17 A +13 D+ A+ C+ B+ +6 A- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 51 Oklahoma W 89 - 66 85% +10  98% 19 - 7 9 - 4 A+ +31 A+ +19 A- A+ A+ A+ +13 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 14 @Vanderbilt L 74 - 77 38%
 Tue, Feb 24 49 @Missouri W 75 - 70 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 19 Alabama W 84 - 81 62%
 Tue, Mar 3 94 @South Carolina W 75 - 65 82%
 Sat, Mar 7 14 Vanderbilt W 77 - 74 60%
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 6 +19 A- +9 B+ B C+ A +10 B C- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B B- B B 44% 35% 36% C+ B A+ C+ A+ C- A- C- B+ A B+ B A- A- 34% 22% 44% B- A- A- B+ A- C+ C+ A B
1.21 63% 41% 37% +4 0 1.11 46% 1.1 .50 18% .37 71% .26 0.95 51% 34% 29% -6 -1 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 18% .29 66% .25
Nov
3
Mercer D+ F A A D- 52% 20% 28% B D A+ A A+ F B F C- A+ A+ A A+ A+ 31% 25% 44% B A+ A A+ A+ F C+ B- C+
1.08 42% 50% 43% -2 +1 1.00 46% 1.2 .54 27% .29 60% .18 0.87 44% 27% 23% -14 -1 0.71 25% 0.7 .18 7% .32 71% .23
Nov
8
Northern Kentucky A+ C+ A+ A A 37% 19% 44% C- A- A+ D+ A+ B C- A B- A+ B B- A+ A+ 39% 12% 49% C- A+ B+ F C- A B+ A+ A+
1.36 60% 60% 42% +10 0 1.22 52% 1.1 .55 17% .33 79% .26 0.80 53% 33% 21% -12 +1 0.80 24% 1.3 .32 22% .24 38% .09
Nov
12
North Florida B- C- A+ D C- 42% 15% 43% C C- A+ B+ A+ F A+ C A A+ A C A A+ 33% 9% 58% D+ A D+ C+ C- A- B- A+ A+
1.30 59% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.08 63% 1.4 .84 18% .39 71% .27 0.87 44% 40% 28% -9 +1 0.85 27% 1.1 .30 22% .20 50% .10
Nov
17
Rice A B- D+ C- C 52% 12% 36% A+ B- A+ A A+ C B+ B B+ B+ A C- B+ A- 26% 26% 48% D+ B+ B A+ A+ D+ F D+ F
1.33 65% 33% 33% +3 +2 1.12 51% 1.2 .63 16% .38 77% .29 0.96 46% 38% 29% -6 -2 0.86 33% 0.6 .19 16% .43 72% .31
Nov
20
Tennessee St. C- C+ F D+ F+ 46% 12% 42% C+ D- B- A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A 24% 29% 47% B A C+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F
1.12 61% 17% 33% -2 +2 1.02 36% 1.5 .54 21% .56 89% .50 0.76 73% 23% 19% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.6 .18 28% .44 76% .33
Nov
24
Rutgers A+ C- F A+ A 39% 17% 43% B- A A+ A+ A+ D A- D B A+ C+ A+ B- A 33% 31% 36% C A- A- A A A+ F A- D-
1.27 56% 25% 50% +7 0 1.17 47% 1.3 .59 19% .32 71% .22 0.90 53% 21% 31% -8 -2 0.82 28% 0.9 .26 21% .46 67% .30
Nov
25
Houston A+ A F D B 45% 14% 40% A B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C- D F D 29% 35% 37% B- D+ F+ A+ A B+ B+ B+ B+
1.26 68% 0% 29% -4 +1 0.98 42% 1.2 .52 15% .56 79% .45 1.21 67% 44% 42% +9 -2 1.15 44% 0.7 .29 15% .21 73% .16
Nov
26
Kansas A B- B C A 33% 27% 40% C- A- B A- B+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ B B+ C+ A 45% 25% 29% C A B- A+ A D+ F F F
1.10 56% 40% 32% -2 -1 0.96 31% 1.0 .31 10% .35 77% .27 1.17 57% 31% 33% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.0 .29 13% .50 87% .43
Dec
2
Syracuse F+ F+ F+ D+ D 47% 26% 28% C D B- C B- F C F F+ A+ B D- A- A 39% 24% 37% B A A- A+ A+ A+ F A- D+
0.87 45% 25% 31% -11 0 0.81 34% 1.2 .39 25% .29 53% .15 0.90 56% 45% 29% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.7 .18 23% .42 59% .25
Dec
6
Illinois C+ F F D+ F 45% 21% 34% A+ D- A+ B- A+ F A+ F A- B+ B- A- C A- 48% 6% 46% F B A+ D- B+ D- B+ A+ A+
1.01 43% 10% 31% -14 0 0.74 53% 1.0 .51 21% .37 44% .16 1.22 58% 33% 35% 0 +3 1.08 32% 1.4 .44 10% .25 57% .14
Dec
16
Louisville A+ A+ A A A+ 47% 20% 33% A A+ A B A B- A+ F+ A+ A+ C F+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% C- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+
1.20 71% 44% 40% +11 +1 1.24 36% 1.0 .36 16% .48 64% .31 0.90 63% 50% 24% -6 +2 0.94 32% 0.6 .19 23% .34 61% .21
Dec
21
Gardner-Webb B+ A- B- B+ B+ 46% 9% 45% B+ B+ A- C B+ B F F F A+ D- A+ A+ A- 30% 19% 52% B+ A- A D+ B+ D+ A+ A+ A+
1.34 73% 40% 40% +11 +2 1.29 44% 1.1 .47 13% .20 67% .13 0.74 63% 10% 25% -11 0 0.80 15% 1.0 .15 19% .16 56% .09
Dec
30
South Carolina St. A+ A+ A+ D A+ 48% 10% 42% C+ A+ A+ D A+ B A+ F B A A+ B B+ A 27% 39% 35% B A- A+ F B- F D+ A+ B
1.52 91% 80% 30% +18 +2 1.42 67% 1.1 .73 14% .56 58% .32 0.78 38% 32% 29% -10 -3 0.76 16% 1.5 .24 14% .34 50% .17
Jan
3
Arkansas C+ F+ B- A+ B- 56% 20% 24% A- B B- B- B- C- A+ F B A C- A+ B- A+ 29% 31% 40% A+ A+ C- A B A+ F F F
1.00 46% 40% 42% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.3 .40 19% .38 52% .20 1.15 67% 25% 33% -2 -2 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 19% .54 88% .48
Jan
6
Texas A+ A+ F A+ A+ 50% 18% 32% A A+ A+ B- A+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F C- A+ 34% 14% 52% C- A+ D+ F+ F+ A+ C+ D C-
1.27 73% 25% 43% +9 +1 1.23 48% 1.0 .48 19% .54 72% .39 1.06 33% 50% 35% -6 +1 0.91 41% 1.4 .57 24% .39 80% .31
Jan
10
Florida C B+ F A- B+ 38% 33% 29% C- B D+ A+ C+ F A+ D A+ B- F F B D+ 38% 15% 46% B+ C- A+ D B+ D D+ F F+
0.90 59% 27% 38% -2 -2 0.96 17% 1.0 .17 24% .51 66% .34 1.22 75% 50% 29% +5 +1 1.13 33% 1.2 .39 13% .39 80% .31
Jan
13
Texas A&M C+ D+ F+ F F 34% 26% 40% D+ F A+ C- A+ D- A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A 32% 2% 67% C A A+ A+ A+ C+ F A+ F+
1.05 53% 31% 25% -9 -1 0.82 49% 0.9 .43 23% .66 74% .48 0.99 50% 0% 34% -3 +2 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 16% .46 66% .30
Jan
17
Kentucky A+ B A+ A+ A+ 46% 13% 41% A+ A+ A+ F C- D+ A+ D A+ D A+ A+ F B+ 39% 11% 50% D- B D- F F C- D A+ C+
1.23 61% 60% 50% +14 +2 1.33 52% 0.4 .19 19% .56 69% .39 1.26 44% 20% 43% 0 +1 1.04 41% 1.4 .56 14% .39 62% .24
Jan
24
Alabama A B+ A B+ A+ 33% 35% 33% D A A F C+ C- A+ C+ A+ A+ C- B+ A+ A+ 29% 20% 51% A+ A+ A D- B D D- A- D+
1.18 63% 47% 38% +6 -2 1.10 38% 0.7 .27 15% .44 68% .30 1.09 64% 40% 24% -5 -1 0.90 26% 1.3 .34 10% .40 71% .28
Jan
28
Georgia A+ D+ A B B+ 32% 30% 38% D- B A+ C+ A+ B A+ F A+ C+ D- F D- F 36% 21% 43% A D- A+ A+ A+ F C+ B+ B-
1.24 50% 47% 37% +2 -2 1.02 57% 0.9 .52 17% .44 60% .26 1.23 70% 58% 38% +11 0 1.23 21% 0.6 .12 9% .32 70% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31
Auburn B- A+ F B- B 37% 37% 26% F+ C+ A+ F B+ D- A+ A- A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 39% 11% 50% C- A+ A+ F B C+ B+ B+ A-
1.12 75% 25% 36% +2 -2 1.02 49% 0.8 .37 22% .58 81% .47 1.01 57% 17% 22% -12 +1 0.81 29% 1.3 .37 15% .34 70% .24
Feb
3
Mississippi A+ F A+ B- B 31% 21% 48% C+ B A+ A- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+ B D- C+ B- 16% 30% 55% C+ B- A F D+ C+ F A+ C-
1.30 38% 67% 35% +1 -1 1.02 52% 1.2 .64 12% .60 68% .41 1.02 57% 46% 33% +2 -3 1.00 23% 1.6 .37 14% .38 62% .23
Feb
7
Kentucky B A C B+ A 19% 40% 40% F B A+ F+ B D A+ D- A+ A F A- A+ B+ 48% 20% 32% D+ B+ A+ F B- D+ D+ A+ B
1.05 67% 37% 37% +3 -4 1.00 45% 0.6 .29 19% .46 68% .31 1.09 75% 30% 19% -1 +1 1.02 23% 1.8 .40 13% .38 59% .22
Feb
11
Mississippi St. B- A- F+ F+ B- 39% 39% 22% D+ C+ A B+ A D+ B A+ A- A+ B- B+ C- B+ 25% 38% 36% A+ A- A+ A- A+ C+ A- A+ A
1.04 65% 30% 27% -3 -2 0.92 35% 1.2 .41 16% .31 83% .25 0.92 57% 33% 35% -1 -3 0.93 18% 0.9 .15 16% .22 54% .12
Feb
14
LSU A D C D D+ 40% 28% 33% C- D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A A+ B+ B+ A+ F+ A- 36% 21% 43% B A- A+ A+ A+ F C+ A B
1.25 50% 36% 31% -5 -1 0.90 50% 1.4 .69 15% .46 74% .34 1.08 53% 20% 40% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.5 .11 5% .34 68% .23
Feb
18
Oklahoma A+ A A+ F A- 52% 20% 28% A- A- A+ B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F C C- 17% 36% 48% A+ B- A+ B+ A+ A+ F C- F
1.35 69% 60% 21% +5 +1 1.14 54% 1.1 .61 11% .42 72% .31 1.00 43% 60% 35% +6 -3 1.07 22% 1.2 .26 23% .41 76% .31




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 2.6 3.9 1st
2nd 0.1 9.0 23.3 6.7 39.0 2nd
3rd 1.5 16.6 2.8 20.9 3rd
4th 0.0 6.7 8.2 0.1 15.0 4th
5th 0.6 9.6 0.5 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.4 3.3 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 0.3 3.0 7th
8th 0.4 0.9 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.8 6.6 21.5 34.3 27.4 9.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 28.3% 2.6    0.5 1.8 0.3
13-5 4.6% 1.3    0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 0.5 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 9.3% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 2.9 0.8 2.4 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 27.4% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 3.8 0.4 2.3 7.8 10.1 5.7 1.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 34.3% 99.9% 12.2% 87.7% 4.7 0.0 0.5 3.8 9.6 12.6 6.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 21.5% 99.8% 6.8% 93.0% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.5 6.8 7.5 3.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 6.6% 99.0% 4.0% 95.0% 6.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.0%
9-9 0.8% 92.5% 3.1% 89.4% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 92.3%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 12.1% 87.7% 4.6 0.2 99.8%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 1.9 28.7 53.6 16.0 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0% 100.0% 2.7 7.3 33.9 41.8 16.0 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5% 100.0% 3.1 4.2 16.9 45.2 29.6 4.0
Lose Out 0.4% 84.7% 9.1 1.8 21.6 34.2 23.4 3.6