Tennessee
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.8#13
Expected Predictive Rating+17.9#11
Pace71.3#117
Improvement-0.3#208

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#27
First Shot+2.9#94
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#20
Layup/Dunks+6.6#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#140
Freethrows-2.9#325
Improvement-1.3#292

Defense
Total Defense+9.3#5
First Shot+6.3#26
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#29
Layups/Dunks+5.7#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#176
Freethrows+0.6#156
Improvement+1.0#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.2% 4.4% 1.7%
#1 Seed 13.8% 17.7% 8.7%
Top 2 Seed 29.6% 37.0% 20.0%
Top 4 Seed 58.3% 67.1% 46.9%
Top 6 Seed 77.7% 84.8% 68.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.6% 97.5% 90.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.6% 96.9% 89.4%
Average Seed 4.2 3.7 4.8
.500 or above 98.6% 99.5% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 94.1% 89.6%
Conference Champion 22.2% 25.2% 18.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four2.0% 1.3% 3.0%
First Round93.7% 96.9% 89.5%
Second Round75.7% 80.9% 68.9%
Sweet Sixteen46.0% 51.5% 38.9%
Elite Eight23.9% 27.4% 19.3%
Final Four11.9% 13.9% 9.2%
Championship Game5.8% 7.0% 4.2%
National Champion2.7% 3.3% 1.9%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Neutral) - 56.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 25 - 114 - 9
Quad 35 - 019 - 10
Quad 45 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 343   Tennessee Martin W 90-62 99%     1 - 0 +11.7 +7.1 +4.3
  Nov 14, 2021 131   East Tennessee St. W 94-62 93%     2 - 0 +31.3 +14.4 +14.5
  Nov 20, 2021 7   Villanova L 53-71 42%     2 - 1 -0.1 -12.3 +11.7
  Nov 21, 2021 24   North Carolina W 89-72 59%     3 - 1 +30.4 +14.9 +14.7
  Nov 26, 2021 280   Tennessee Tech W 80-69 98%     4 - 1 +1.6 +2.9 -1.3
  Nov 30, 2021 276   Presbyterian W 86-44 98%     5 - 1 +32.8 +19.3 +17.9
  Dec 04, 2021 81   @ Colorado W 69-54 73%     6 - 1 +24.4 +0.5 +24.0
  Dec 07, 2021 19   Texas Tech W 70-68 57%    
  Dec 11, 2021 174   UNC Greensboro W 73-54 96%    
  Dec 14, 2021 335   South Carolina Upstate W 87-56 99.8%   
  Dec 18, 2021 34   Memphis W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 22, 2021 5   Arizona W 76-75 51%    
  Dec 29, 2021 10   @ Alabama L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 05, 2022 61   Mississippi W 70-59 85%    
  Jan 08, 2022 11   @ LSU L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 11, 2022 118   South Carolina W 80-65 92%    
  Jan 15, 2022 15   @ Kentucky L 71-73 41%    
  Jan 18, 2022 86   @ Vanderbilt W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 22, 2022 11   LSU W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 26, 2022 30   Florida W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 29, 2022 12   @ Texas L 64-67 39%    
  Feb 01, 2022 76   Texas A&M W 72-60 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 118   @ South Carolina W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 09, 2022 48   @ Mississippi St. W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 12, 2022 86   Vanderbilt W 76-63 87%    
  Feb 15, 2022 15   Kentucky W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 19, 2022 25   @ Arkansas L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 22, 2022 158   @ Missouri W 74-62 86%    
  Feb 26, 2022 16   Auburn W 76-72 64%    
  Mar 01, 2022 150   @ Georgia W 77-66 84%    
  Mar 05, 2022 25   Arkansas W 78-73 68%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 5.2 7.4 5.4 2.2 0.4 22.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 6.2 7.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.7 6.1 1.5 0.1 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.1 5.6 1.5 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.7 5.2 1.8 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.3 0.2 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.2 0.2 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.0 6.7 9.9 12.9 15.0 15.5 13.7 10.0 5.7 2.2 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.5% 2.2    2.2 0.1
16-2 94.2% 5.4    4.5 0.8 0.0
15-3 73.6% 7.4    4.4 2.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 37.6% 5.2    1.5 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.2% 1.6    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.2% 22.2 13.2 6.4 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 47.9% 52.1% 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.2% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 1.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.7% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 1.5 3.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 10.0% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 1.8 4.0 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.7% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 2.4 2.9 4.8 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.5% 100.0% 17.7% 82.3% 3.3 1.1 3.2 4.8 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.0% 99.9% 12.4% 87.5% 4.3 0.2 1.2 3.4 4.1 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 12.9% 99.4% 8.3% 91.1% 5.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 3.2 2.7 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
10-8 9.9% 96.5% 5.3% 91.2% 6.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.3%
9-9 6.7% 88.0% 3.9% 84.1% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 87.5%
8-10 4.0% 65.6% 1.8% 63.9% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 65.0%
7-11 2.3% 38.0% 1.2% 36.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4 37.2%
6-12 1.0% 15.1% 0.6% 14.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 14.6%
5-13 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.6%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 94.6% 15.6% 79.0% 4.2 13.8 15.8 15.3 13.5 11.0 8.4 6.1 3.7 2.5 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.4 93.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.1 6.9