Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.6#14
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#31
Pace66.4#263
Improvement+0.9#121

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#33
First Shot+1.3#138
After Offensive Rebound+6.8#1
Layup/Dunks+3.1#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#149
Freethrows-0.9#239
Improvement-0.3#199

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#10
First Shot+7.9#12
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#64
Layups/Dunks+3.4#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#95
Freethrows+1.6#77
Improvement+1.2#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.7% 2.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 10.0% 10.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 40.8% 40.8% 8.3%
Top 6 Seed 69.8% 69.8% 25.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.6% 94.6% 66.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.8% 93.9% 63.6%
Average Seed 5.2 5.2 7.9
.500 or above 98.8% 98.8% 83.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.9% 85.9% 41.7%
Conference Champion 14.4% 14.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 8.3%
First Four2.7% 2.7% 8.3%
First Round93.7% 93.7% 66.7%
Second Round75.8% 75.8% 58.3%
Sweet Sixteen40.9% 40.9% 33.3%
Elite Eight17.5% 17.5% 16.7%
Final Four7.5% 7.5% 8.3%
Championship Game3.1% 3.1% 0.0%
National Champion1.2% 1.2% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 9
Quad 26 - 214 - 11
Quad 32 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 174 Mercer W 76-61 97%     1 - 0 +10.9 +0.6 +10.3
  Sat, Nov 8 208 Northern Kentucky W 95-56 98%     2 - 0 +32.9 +20.1 +13.0
  Wed, Nov 12 350 North Florida W 99-66 99%     3 - 0 +17.4 +7.5 +7.3
  Mon, Nov 17 231 Rice W 91-66 98%     4 - 0 +17.6 +16.2 +1.9
  Thu, Nov 20 237 Tennessee St. W 89-60 98%     5 - 0 +21.5 +4.3 +13.8
  Mon, Nov 24 147 Rutgers W 85-60 93%     6 - 0 +25.9 +17.8 +9.4
  Tue, Nov 25 8 Houston W 76-73 40%     7 - 0 +23.3 +25.4 -1.7
  Wed, Nov 26 17 Kansas L 76-81 51%     7 - 1 +12.4 +14.8 -2.4
  Tue, Dec 2 75 @Syracuse L 60-62 75%     7 - 2 +8.6 -6.5 +15.1
  Sat, Dec 6 10 Illinois L 62-75 41%     7 - 3 +7.0 +5.0 +0.2
  Tue, Dec 16 13 Louisville W 83-62 60%     8 - 3 +35.9 +16.6 +19.6
  Sun, Dec 21 362 Gardner-Webb W 94-52 99.6%    9 - 3 +23.5 +12.5 +11.0
  Tue, Dec 30 358 South Carolina St. W 90-54 100.0%   
  Sat, Jan 3 23 @Arkansas L 76-77 48%    
  Tue, Jan 6 41 Texas W 78-70 79%    
  Sat, Jan 10 12 @Florida L 71-74 38%    
  Tue, Jan 13 43 Texas A&M W 81-72 79%    
  Sat, Jan 17 20 Kentucky W 75-71 66%    
  Sat, Jan 24 15 @Alabama L 81-84 39%    
  Tue, Jan 27 22 @Georgia L 80-81 45%    
  Sat, Jan 31 34 Auburn W 78-71 75%    
  Tue, Feb 3 63 Mississippi W 75-63 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 20 @Kentucky L 72-74 44%    
  Wed, Feb 11 80 @Mississippi St. W 76-68 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 39 LSU W 77-69 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 45 Oklahoma W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Feb 21 9 @Vanderbilt L 72-78 31%    
  Tue, Feb 24 60 @Missouri W 78-72 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 15 Alabama W 84-81 61%    
  Tue, Mar 3 90 @South Carolina W 73-65 78%    
  Sat, Mar 7 9 Vanderbilt W 76-75 51%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.4 4.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 14.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.6 6.0 4.1 1.1 0.1 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.9 4.4 0.8 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.7 5.1 1.0 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 5.7 1.6 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.0 2.9 0.2 9.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.8 3.6 0.6 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 3.5 1.2 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.0 0.2 4.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.8 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.8 9.9 13.2 15.6 15.8 13.4 9.4 5.4 2.5 0.8 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 96.8% 2.4    2.1 0.3
15-3 79.7% 4.3    2.8 1.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 47.4% 4.4    1.7 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.7% 2.0    0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 7.8 4.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 1.5 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 100.0% 42.1% 57.9% 1.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-2 2.5% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.9 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
15-3 5.4% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 2.5 0.8 1.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 100.0%
14-4 9.4% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 3.1 0.5 2.0 3.8 2.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.4% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 3.7 0.2 1.3 4.1 5.0 2.3 0.5 0.1 100.0%
12-6 15.8% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 4.5 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.1 4.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.6% 99.8% 9.8% 90.1% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 5.0 4.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 13.2% 99.8% 6.2% 93.6% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 4.0 3.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
9-9 9.9% 98.3% 4.4% 93.9% 7.3 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.0 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.2 98.2%
8-10 6.8% 89.1% 3.0% 86.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.0 0.7 88.8%
7-11 3.9% 61.7% 2.0% 59.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.1 1.5 60.9%
6-12 2.0% 21.9% 0.8% 21.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.6 21.3%
5-13 0.9% 2.3% 0.8% 1.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.5%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.6% 12.9% 81.7% 5.2 2.7 7.3 14.0 16.8 15.8 13.2 10.2 5.9 3.4 2.7 2.4 0.1 5.4 93.8%