UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#271
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#202
Pace70.3#149
Improvement+0.9#98

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#270
First Shot-3.3#276
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#179
Layup/Dunks-2.4#257
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#167
Freethrows+3.1#26
Improvement-1.6#318

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#266
First Shot+0.0#169
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#321
Layups/Dunks-10.5#356
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#17
Freethrows+1.8#82
Improvement+2.5#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 5.7% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 35.2% 47.4% 21.6%
.500 or above in Conference 57.9% 64.5% 50.5%
Conference Champion 4.7% 6.2% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 2.4% 5.2%
First Four1.5% 1.3% 1.6%
First Round3.8% 5.0% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Home) - 52.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 411 - 613 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 52   @ UAB L 77-102 6%     0 - 1 -13.3 +8.4 -21.0
  Nov 14, 2021 109   @ Chattanooga L 45-75 12%     0 - 2 -23.0 -20.0 -6.6
  Nov 18, 2021 261   Tennessee Tech W 61-55 48%     1 - 2 +0.6 -19.0 +19.2
  Nov 23, 2021 43   @ North Carolina L 53-72 5%     1 - 3 -5.8 -14.1 +7.2
  Dec 01, 2021 240   The Citadel W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 04, 2021 337   NC Central W 75-66 81%    
  Dec 08, 2021 109   Chattanooga L 61-68 26%    
  Dec 11, 2021 301   @ Western Carolina L 74-75 45%    
  Dec 14, 2021 345   @ Tennessee Martin W 75-70 67%    
  Dec 18, 2021 123   East Tennessee St. L 65-71 29%    
  Dec 29, 2021 32   @ Indiana L 58-79 3%    
  Jan 05, 2022 182   @ Campbell L 59-67 24%    
  Jan 08, 2022 348   Charleston Southern W 83-71 86%    
  Jan 12, 2022 146   @ Winthrop L 72-83 18%    
  Jan 15, 2022 334   South Carolina Upstate W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 19, 2022 279   N.C. A&T W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 22, 2022 247   @ Radford L 64-68 35%    
  Jan 26, 2022 187   Gardner-Webb L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 29, 2022 283   @ Presbyterian L 64-66 41%    
  Feb 02, 2022 209   Longwood L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 05, 2022 285   @ High Point L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 09, 2022 338   Hampton W 76-66 80%    
  Feb 12, 2022 334   @ South Carolina Upstate W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 16, 2022 348   @ Charleston Southern W 80-74 69%    
  Feb 19, 2022 146   Winthrop L 75-80 36%    
  Feb 23, 2022 187   @ Gardner-Webb L 65-73 25%    
  Feb 26, 2022 283   Presbyterian W 67-63 62%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 4.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.6 1.0 0.1 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.7 3.2 4.0 1.2 0.1 9.2 3rd
4th 0.4 3.6 5.1 1.3 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.3 3.3 6.1 2.1 0.2 11.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 6.8 3.1 0.2 12.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 6.0 3.9 0.4 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 5.3 4.0 0.6 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.6 1.0 0.0 9.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.0 0.8 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.5 4.7 8.4 11.6 13.6 15.1 13.9 11.3 8.3 5.0 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
14-2 92.0% 1.0    0.8 0.3
13-3 60.1% 1.6    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-4 23.4% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
11-5 4.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.4% 31.0% 31.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.1% 25.7% 25.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-3 2.7% 18.7% 18.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.2
12-4 5.0% 12.3% 12.3% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 4.4
11-5 8.3% 10.6% 10.6% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 7.4
10-6 11.3% 6.6% 6.6% 15.8 0.2 0.6 10.5
9-7 13.9% 5.2% 5.2% 15.9 0.1 0.6 13.2
8-8 15.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.3 14.8
7-9 13.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.5
6-10 11.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.6
5-11 8.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.3
4-12 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.7
3-13 2.5% 2.5
2-14 1.0% 1.0
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 95.5 0.0%