UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.6 226
Expected Predictive Rating -5.5 253
Pace 64.5 295
Improvement +0.0 186

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 249 C- C- C- C F
Defense C 195 C- C+ C- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 359 C- 56% 214 -6.1 350
2 Pt. Jumpers 59% 19 B- 41% 84 +7.2 2
Three Pointers 34% 315 B- 35% 114 -2.7 270
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.7 364 C+ +1.3 124
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 219
Second Chance C- 29.3% 217 D+ 0.97 274 C- 0.28 245
Turnovers C- 17.5% 229
Freethrows C+ 0.32 124 D+ 69% 277 C 0.22 161
Total Offense C- -2.8 249

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 38% 318 C 10.9% 170
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 313 C- 5.7% 233
Three Pointers B+ 91% 32 B- 0.6% 106
Total F+ 45% 347 C 5.5% 171

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 65 C 58% 179 +2.7 271
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 255 F+ 44% 347 +0.2 210
Three Pointers 39% 251 C+ 33% 133 -1.7 110
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 286 C +0.5 199
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 220
Second Chance C- 31.6% 230 B 0.93 52 C+ 0.29 125
Turnovers C- 16.0% 229
Freethrows C 0.30 194 B+ 68% 24 C+ 0.21 141
Total Defense C -0.8 195

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 145 C 11.7% 138
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 154 C 4.8% 174
Three Pointers D- 90% 329 C- 0.7% 199
Total C 55% 160 C+ 6.2% 129

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.0 333 17.1 149
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 269 0.19 254
Improvement -0.8 #232 +0.8 #134

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 254 223 189
Conference Record 7 - 9 8 - 8 9 - 7
Conference Finish 5 4 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 6% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 2% 4% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 82% 96% 58%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 3% 4%
First Round4% 5% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Radford (Home) - 63.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 31 - 41 - 10
Quad 411 - 712 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 97 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 14% -4  10% 0 - 1 D -9 F -10 F A+ F C+ +1 A- F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 262 @Georgia Southern L 90 - 93 47% +1  56% 0 - 2 D+ -6 C +0 B- B F D -6 D- A F+
 Tue, Nov 11 190 Lipscomb W 69 - 64 56% +4  84% 1 - 2 C +0 D+ -3 B B F B- +3 A D+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 254 @Western Carolina L 73 - 80 45% -1  21% 1 - 3 D -9 C +0 B+ F D+ F -10 C- C- F
 Tue, Nov 25 247 Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 65% +3  71% 1 - 4 D -10 F -11 A+ F+ F B- +2 C D- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 174 Appalachian St. W 67 - 55 52% +8  95% 2 - 4 B- +8 D+ -3 D+ A+ F A+ +12 B B+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 300 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 77 67% +0  41% 3 - 4 C- -3 B +6 C+ B C+ F+ -8 F C- B-
 Sat, Dec 6 24 @North Carolina St. L 63 - 75 3% -3  24% 3 - 5 B- +7 D+ -3 D C C A +9 A F+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 85 Miami (OH) L 87 - 90 OT 24% -6  26% 3 - 6 C +1 C+ +2 B C- B C -1 C A F
 Sat, Dec 13 121 St. Thomas L 59 - 80 37% -13  7% 3 - 7 F -21 F -16 F C- F D- -7 D+ C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 123 @UAB L 47 - 72 19% -13  10% 3 - 8 F -19 F -20 F F F+ C -1 D+ B+ F+
 Wed, Dec 31 89 High Point L 69 - 87 25% -11  3% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F+ -15 D+ -4 F+ C+ A+ F -11 F D B
 Sat, Jan 3 258 @Charleston Southern L 83 - 86 46% -6  0% 3 - 10 0 - 2 D+ -5 B- +5 F A+ C+ F -10 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 270 Longwood W 72 - 61 71% +6  98% 4 - 10 1 - 2 C+ +2 C +1 C D+ B+ B- +2 B- A F
 Sat, Jan 10 234 @Radford W 91 - 72 40% +9  98% 5 - 10 2 - 2 A +18 A- +10 A+ F C+ A- +8 A A F
 Wed, Jan 14 272 @Presbyterian L 70 - 71 49% -6  9% 5 - 11 2 - 3 C- -4 C- -1 F C- C+ C- -3 F B+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 136 Winthrop L 67 - 69 42% -6  3% 5 - 12 2 - 4 C- -4 F -11 F D- B A- +7 A- B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 302 @South Carolina Upstate W 83 - 69 56% +6  93% 6 - 12 3 - 4 B +9 A +12 A D B C- -2 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 69 - 50 94% +12  95% 7 - 12 4 - 4 C- -2 D -5 C D- C B+ +6 B D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 136 @Winthrop L 71 - 84 22% -7  0% 7 - 13 4 - 5 D -9 C+ +2 C- F A F -12 F D B+
 Wed, Feb 4 302 South Carolina Upstate W 76 - 67 76% +0  46% 8 - 13 5 - 5 C- -2 C +0 A D D C- -2 C- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 270 @Longwood W 79 - 74 49% +0  43% 9 - 13 6 - 5 C+ +2 B +6 C B A+ D+ -4 F+ C F
 Sat, Feb 14 272 Presbyterian L 57 - 58 71% +2  79% 9 - 14 6 - 6 D -10 F -16 D- F C B+ +5 B+ D C+
 Thu, Feb 19 89 @High Point L 48 - 74 12% -13  1% 9 - 15 6 - 7 F+ -17 F -21 F D- D- B- +2 B B- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 234 Radford W 77 - 74 63%
 Thu, Feb 26 363 @Gardner-Webb W 79 - 67 87%
 Sat, Feb 28 258 Charleston Southern W 76 - 71 68%
Totals 11 - 16 8 - 8 -4 C- -3 A+ C+ F C -1 B- D+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- B- B- C+ 29% 59% 34% F C- C- D+ C- C- C+ D+ C C C F+ C+ C 43% 18% 39% D+ C- C- B C+ C- C B+ C+
1.05 56% 41% 35% +1 -3 0.99 29% 1.0 .28 18% .32 69% .22 1.10 58% 44% 33% +1 +1 1.04 32% 0.9 .29 16% .30 68% .22
Nov
4		 Wichita St. F F C D- D+ 13% 58% 29% F F B- A+ A+ F D+ F D C+ A+ F B- A- 45% 29% 27% B A- F F F A+ B A B+
0.86 33% 39% 29% -5 -7 0.79 31% 1.5 .47 24% .25 62% .15 1.11 36% 50% 31% -8 -1 0.86 51% 1.3 .66 21% .28 60% .17
Nov
8		 Georgia Southern C B- A+ F A- 40% 37% 23% F B- D A+ B F B- A B+ D C+ F C+ F+ 47% 14% 39% C- D- C- A+ A F+ F C F
1.12 62% 63% 25% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.4 .45 22% .38 83% .32 1.16 52% 75% 32% +1 +1 1.07 29% 0.6 .17 11% .55 72% .39
Nov
11		 Lipscomb D+ B- A+ B A- 26% 37% 37% F B C A B F A+ F A+ B- B- F A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% C- A F A+ D+ D+ D B D+
1.07 64% 50% 38% +8 -3 1.12 31% 1.2 .38 23% .48 63% .30 0.99 55% 50% 21% -9 +1 0.87 39% 0.8 .29 15% .27 73% .20
Nov
19		 Western Carolina C A B A+ A+ 15% 43% 43% F B+ D+ F F D+ A+ F D+ F D+ F+ A+ C- 49% 24% 27% C- C- F A+ C- F F F F
1.13 71% 45% 50% +15 -4 1.23 25% 0.6 .16 17% .43 52% .22 1.24 59% 45% 25% -1 0 1.00 49% 0.7 .36 12% .51 79% .41
Nov
25		 Tennessee St. F C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 43% 22% F A+ D+ F F+ F A+ F A B- B- D- A+ B- 49% 26% 25% F+ C F+ C- D- A- C- C- C-
0.99 62% 63% 63% +21 -3 1.38 28% 0.9 .24 31% .55 64% .36 1.02 54% 43% 23% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 20% .29 76% .22
Nov
30		 Appalachian St. D+ A A+ F C- 29% 29% 41% F+ D+ B A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ A+ B- 21% 30% 49% A+ B A+ D B+ C B A+ A
1.04 67% 50% 18% -4 -2 0.90 36% 1.3 .46 20% .52 81% .43 0.85 80% 36% 22% -5 -2 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 16% .28 47% .13
Dec
2		 UNC Greensboro B D- A+ A+ B 35% 35% 31% F C+ D+ A+ B C+ A+ C A F+ F D+ F F 31% 22% 47% C F B- F+ C- B- C- D+ D+
1.26 53% 53% 47% +9 -2 1.16 28% 1.5 .41 12% .37 71% .26 1.19 79% 40% 43% +13 -1 1.27 25% 1.2 .29 17% .39 71% .28
Dec
6		 North Carolina St. D+ F D A C+ 13% 46% 42% F D D+ B+ C C C+ A B A F+ B A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% D- A B- F F+ A B+ D B
0.93 33% 32% 40% -2 -5 0.88 24% 1.1 .26 21% .32 76% .24 1.11 71% 33% 20% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.7 .47 18% .27 80% .22
Dec
10		 Miami (OH) C+ B B A+ A- 29% 34% 36% F B F A+ C- B B+ B- B+ C F+ C D+ C- 36% 22% 41% B C A+ D A F C C+ C
1.12 65% 45% 43% +9 -2 1.16 10% 2.3 .24 15% .33 77% .26 1.15 71% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 12% 1.3 .15 6% .33 75% .25
Dec
13		 St. Thomas F C- D+ F F+ 40% 32% 28% F F C D+ C- F C- F D- D- C+ A+ F C- 57% 10% 33% D- D+ F A+ C- D+ F A+ C-
0.88 58% 33% 23% -6 -1 0.87 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 62% .16 1.20 62% 20% 47% +7 +3 1.22 30% 0.7 .21 13% .42 54% .22
Dec
21		 UAB F F A F D+ 18% 55% 27% F F D- F F F+ F+ F F+ C C+ A+ D+ C 62% 15% 23% F D+ C A+ B+ F+ C B C+
0.73 44% 44% 23% -3 -6 0.84 19% 0.0 .00 20% .18 67% .12 1.12 56% 25% 33% -3 +2 1.00 32% 0.8 .24 8% .30 67% .20
Dec
31		 High Point D+ A+ F F D 32% 38% 30% F F+ F+ A+ C+ A+ A F B F F A+ F F 40% 19% 42% B F A+ F D B F B- F
1.03 81% 26% 20% -3 -3 0.90 24% 1.5 .36 12% .41 63% .25 1.30 82% 25% 50% +17 0 1.37 19% 2.3 .43 16% .47 73% .34
Jan
3		 Charleston Southern B- F C F F 42% 32% 26% D+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C- A+ F F F F+ F 53% 9% 38% F+ F F D F A- F A+ F
1.15 33% 38% 23% -15 -1 0.70 44% 1.3 .58 11% .61 69% .42 1.19 72% 50% 39% +11 +3 1.30 42% 1.0 .42 22% .52 52% .27
Jan
7		 Longwood C C D A+ B- 35% 26% 39% F+ C A+ F D+ B+ B F C B- C- A+ B- B 42% 17% 42% D- B- A- A- A F D- A C-
1.13 63% 33% 44% +6 -1 1.13 44% 0.5 .22 16% .39 62% .24 0.96 60% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.92 26% 0.8 .20 16% .37 65% .24
Jan
10		 Radford A- A+ C+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 41% F A+ D F F C+ A+ F A- A- F+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 8% 46% F A A A A F F C+ F
1.24 80% 40% 52% +18 -2 1.35 28% 0.7 .19 18% .48 62% .30 0.98 67% 25% 13% -12 +2 0.83 21% 0.8 .17 10% .48 72% .35
Jan
14		 Presbyterian C- F F A+ F+ 34% 40% 26% F F C+ D C- C+ A+ A+ A+ C- A- F F F 53% 28% 19% D F B B+ B+ C F A+ D-
1.07 44% 21% 50% -6 -3 0.85 32% 0.9 .29 15% .43 83% .36 1.08 48% 58% 63% +8 0 1.19 29% 0.9 .25 20% .51 52% .27
Jan
17		 Winthrop F F A F F 23% 35% 42% F F C F D- B A D+ A- A- A+ F D+ A+ 43% 2% 54% F A- C+ A B+ A+ F D- F
0.96 42% 50% 18% -10 -3 0.77 30% 0.8 .23 14% .42 72% .30 0.98 25% 100% 36% -11 +3 0.85 32% 0.8 .27 21% .54 80% .44
Jan
21		 South Carolina Upstate A C+ F+ A+ A+ 45% 29% 27% D- A D+ D- D B A A- A C- B+ F D D- 52% 12% 37% F F C+ A+ A+ F B A+ A
1.24 59% 29% 62% +9 -1 1.18 28% 1.0 .28 13% .38 77% .29 1.03 48% 83% 37% +2 +2 1.10 27% 0.4 .11 12% .26 53% .14
Jan
29		 Gardner-Webb D A- F A+ C+ 26% 24% 50% F+ C C+ F D- C A+ F B+ B+ B+ F A+ A- 53% 6% 40% F B C- D+ D+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.16 73% 10% 48% +7 -1 1.14 37% 0.8 .29 15% .41 62% .26 0.84 48% 67% 21% -11 +3 0.85 24% 1.0 .24 22% .15 57% .09
Jan
31		 Winthrop C+ B- A+ F C+ 28% 32% 40% F C- C- F F A A A+ A+ F B+ F F F 33% 4% 62% D F D- C- D B+ F F F
1.09 62% 53% 26% +1 -2 1.00 27% 0.7 .18 12% .42 83% .35 1.30 47% 50% 43% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 19% .53 89% .47
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 South Carolina Upstate C A+ C B+ A+ 32% 23% 45% D- A D- C D D B F C C- F+ B+ B D+ 40% 24% 36% C+ C- B- A+ A+ F C+ B+ C+
1.13 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 25% 1.1 .29 18% .34 63% .22 0.99 64% 31% 30% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.3 .08 13% .29 65% .19
Feb
12		 Longwood B D B A+ B- 37% 33% 31% F C B B- B A+ C- B+ C+ D+ F B- D+ F 35% 18% 47% D+ F+ F A C F F+ A+ C+
1.17 56% 44% 47% +7 -2 1.12 34% 1.0 .34 12% .34 75% .25 1.10 71% 33% 35% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.8 .31 15% .38 59% .23
Feb
14		 Presbyterian F F+ A+ F D- 46% 30% 24% D- D- D F F C F C- F B+ A+ F A+ B+ 42% 31% 27% B- B+ B- F D C+ A A A+
0.90 48% 53% 25% -3 -1 0.94 26% 0.4 .12 16% .17 67% .11 0.92 42% 50% 25% -7 -1 0.87 29% 1.3 .38 21% .24 58% .14
Feb
19		 High Point F F F F F 30% 26% 43% F+ F B- F D- D- D F F B- B- F A A- 53% 2% 45% F B F A+ B- D+ B- D+ B-
0.75 43% 25% 25% -14 -1 0.72 36% 0.7 .24 25% .27 54% .14 1.15 56% 100% 26% -5 +3 0.98 42% 0.8 .33 12% .32 78% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 2.8 24.8 27.6 3rd
4th 5.3 34.0 13.3 52.5 4th
5th 0.4 9.2 6.7 0.2 16.5 5th
6th 1.2 1.8 3.0 6th
7th 0.3 0.3 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 1.9 16.3 43.5 38.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 38.3% 6.1% 6.1% 15.7 0.8 1.6 36.0
8-8 43.5% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2 41.3
7-9 16.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.6 15.7
6-10 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 1.8
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 15.8 94.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 15.7 32.8 67.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 17.5%
Lose Out 1.2%