UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#193
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#187
Pace68.4#198
Improvement+1.8#70

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#154
First Shot-4.3#297
After Offensive Rebound+5.0#8
Layup/Dunks-1.6#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#85
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#202
Freethrows-3.5#341
Improvement+1.2#92

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#247
First Shot-2.4#251
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#166
Layups/Dunks-1.2#215
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#94
Freethrows-2.6#320
Improvement+0.6#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.6% 15.8% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 62.1% 68.4% 42.9%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 76.6% 66.1%
Conference Champion 18.7% 20.4% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.8% 4.2%
First Four1.4% 1.1% 2.1%
First Round14.0% 15.3% 10.1%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 75.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 410 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 54-110 3%     0 - 1 -34.5 -14.3 -17.1
  Nov 09, 2024 157   @ Ohio L 76-82 33%     0 - 2 -2.7 -0.3 -2.3
  Nov 18, 2024 182   @ North Florida W 89-75 37%     1 - 2 +15.9 +16.8 -0.4
  Nov 22, 2024 295   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-64 70%     2 - 2 +1.1 -0.7 +1.9
  Nov 24, 2024 337   @ Central Arkansas L 83-92 2OT 71%     2 - 3 -16.3 -4.0 -10.9
  Dec 01, 2024 318   @ Tennessee St. W 92-74 67%     3 - 3 +12.1 +12.9 -1.4
  Dec 03, 2024 82   @ George Mason L 52-74 15%     3 - 4 -12.5 -10.6 -3.4
  Dec 14, 2024 263   Western Carolina W 79-72 75%    
  Dec 17, 2024 182   North Florida W 81-78 59%    
  Dec 21, 2024 140   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-75 30%    
  Jan 04, 2025 141   High Point W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 08, 2025 202   @ Longwood L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 248   @ Presbyterian W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 15, 2025 343   South Carolina Upstate W 86-73 89%    
  Jan 18, 2025 179   Winthrop W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 22, 2025 221   @ Gardner-Webb L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 276   @ Charleston Southern W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 29, 2025 189   Radford W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 05, 2025 221   Gardner-Webb W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 141   @ High Point L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 12, 2025 343   @ South Carolina Upstate W 83-76 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 276   Charleston Southern W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 19, 2025 189   @ Radford L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 22, 2025 202   Longwood W 74-71 63%    
  Feb 26, 2025 248   Presbyterian W 75-69 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 179   @ Winthrop L 75-78 38%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.4 5.7 5.1 2.6 1.0 0.2 18.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.0 6.9 3.4 0.7 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.2 6.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.5 4.5 6.8 1.8 0.1 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.3 1.8 0.1 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.1 2.0 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.5 1.5 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.0 0.9 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.5 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.5 7.3 10.6 13.5 14.8 14.4 12.4 9.3 5.8 2.6 1.0 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
14-2 98.6% 2.6    2.4 0.2
13-3 88.4% 5.1    4.0 1.1 0.0
12-4 61.4% 5.7    3.0 2.3 0.4 0.0
11-5 27.0% 3.4    0.8 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
10-6 5.4% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 11.4 5.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 46.7% 46.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.0% 43.4% 43.4% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
14-2 2.6% 37.7% 37.7% 13.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.6
13-3 5.8% 31.6% 31.6% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.0
12-4 9.3% 26.4% 26.4% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.0 6.8
11-5 12.4% 21.1% 21.1% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.1 9.8
10-6 14.4% 15.4% 15.4% 14.8 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.3 12.2
9-7 14.8% 11.5% 11.5% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 13.1
8-8 13.5% 8.8% 8.8% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.7 12.4
7-9 10.6% 6.3% 6.3% 15.9 0.1 0.6 10.0
6-10 7.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.3 7.0
5-11 4.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 4.4
4-12 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-13 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.2 5.1 2.7 85.4 0.0%