Alabama A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.7 307
Expected Predictive Rating -6.6 272
Pace 64.4 296
Improvement -2.9 295

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 306 D- D C B- D+
Defense D+ 279 D C D+ C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 214 D- 50% 339 -3.5 299
2 Pt. Jumpers 53% 39 D+ 34% 296 +1.3 104
Three Pointers 36% 287 C- 32% 243 -3.4 304
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 297 D- -4.6 327
1st FG Attempt D- 0.91 335
Second Chance D- 24.3% 334 C 1.03 177 D 0.25 317
Turnovers C 17.2% 202
Freethrows B- 0.34 81 C+ 74% 148 B- 0.25 84
Total Offense D -5.1 306

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 40% 305 C 11.4% 206
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 305 B- 3.9% 98
Three Pointers F+ 75% 343 B 0.3% 44
Total F+ 45% 350 C+ 5.4% 162

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 115 D 62% 298 +3.4 294
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 282 B 34% 45 -2.0 35
Three Pointers 41% 160 D 37% 321 +2.4 297
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 280 D +3.1 298
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 301
Second Chance C- 32.1% 254 B- 0.96 79 C 0.31 169
Turnovers D+ 15.7% 249
Freethrows D+ 0.33 270 C+ 71% 126 C- 0.24 251
Total Defense D+ -3.6 279

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 336 D+ 9.1% 244
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 39% 341 C- 4.2% 211
Three Pointers C- 86% 222 D 0.2% 332
Total D- 64% 339 D+ 4.5% 264

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 300 16.8 102
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 223 0.23 343
Improvement +0.3 #170 -3.2 #322

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 324 305 279
Conference Record 9 - 9 11 - 7 13 - 5
Conference Finish 6 3 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11% 13% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 80% 96% 75%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 10% 36% 2%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four10% 11% 9%
First Round5% 6% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Away) - 25.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 20 - 5
Quad 416 - 916 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 37 @Indiana L 51 - 98 2% -31  0% 0 - 1 F -30 F -18 F+ F C+ F -12 F C B-
 Thu, Nov 13 258 Charleston Southern W 68 - 64 49% +5  77% 1 - 1 C- -4 F -10 F A F B+ +6 C+ D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 260 Lindenwood W 74 - 65 50% +2  61% 2 - 1 C +0 C- -1 C+ C D+ B- +2 C C+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 38 @Clemson L 56 - 92 2% -25  0% 2 - 2 F -19 F+ -10 C- F B+ F+ -10 D F+ C+
 Sun, Nov 30 238 @Coastal Carolina L 60 - 67 24% -6  0% 2 - 3 D -8 F -12 F+ F D B +4 A C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 247 Tennessee St. W 80 - 53 46% +9  97% 3 - 3 A +19 B- +5 B+ B- F A+ +16 A+ C- A
 Sun, Dec 7 190 @Lipscomb L 58 - 92 18% -13  0% 3 - 4 F -33 F -12 F D- C- F -23 F F+ F
 Mon, Dec 15 340 North Alabama W 68 - 60 73% +0  53% 4 - 4 D+ -7 F -11 F C A- B +4 D- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 73 Mississippi L 66 - 80 7% -13  0% 4 - 5 D+ -6 C +0 B- C- C+ D- -8 F A C-
 Sun, Dec 21 282 Chattanooga L 66 - 73 55% -4  20% 4 - 6 F+ -17 F+ -9 F D B- F+ -9 F+ C- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 328 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 83 - 95 46% -4  33% 4 - 7 0 - 1 F -20 A +11 D- A+ C- F -32 F F D-
 Mon, Jan 5 365 @Mississippi Valley W 71 - 51 87% +10  80% 5 - 7 1 - 1 C -1 F -13 F D F A+ +12 B C+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 349 Alcorn St. L 62 - 64 77% +4  80% 5 - 8 1 - 2 F -18 F -17 F F C- C- -2 C B F
 Mon, Jan 12 332 Jackson St. W 100 - 91 70% +6  73% 6 - 8 2 - 2 D+ -5 C+ +2 C+ C+ C- F+ -9 D- B- F
 Mon, Jan 19 309 Alabama St. W 73 - 69 50% +0  52% 7 - 8 3 - 2 C- -5 D- -6 F D B- C+ +2 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 297 @Texas Southern L 74 - 89 35% +1  40% 7 - 9 3 - 3 F -20 C- -1 B F+ D F -19 F C- F
 Tue, Jan 27 334 @Prairie View W 80 - 60 48% +12  84% 8 - 9 4 - 3 B+ +12 C+ +3 B F C+ A +9 B- A C+
 Sat, Jan 31 333 Florida A&M W 72 - 65 71% +8  99% 9 - 9 5 - 3 D+ -7 C +0 D D- B D- -7 D C- C-
 Mon, Feb 2 241 Bethune-Cookman L 62 - 80 45% -14  0% 9 - 10 5 - 4 F -25 F -17 F F D+ D- -7 F A D+
 Sat, Feb 7 267 @Southern L 68 - 81 29% -8  0% 9 - 11 5 - 5 F+ -16 D+ -3 F C A+ F -14 F F D-
 Mon, Feb 9 293 @Grambling St. W 66 - 58 34% +10  97% 10 - 11 6 - 5 C+ +4 D -4 D F+ D+ A +8 A+ C- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 72 - 65 95% +1  44% 11 - 11 7 - 5 F -20 D- -7 D- D B- F -12 D C- D-
 Mon, Feb 16 328 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82 - 70 69% +4  79% 12 - 11 8 - 5 C- -2 B+ +8 A- D+ C- F+ -8 C- C F
 Thu, Feb 19 333 @Florida A&M W 63 - 61 48% +1  59% 13 - 11 9 - 5 D+ -6 D- -7 C- D D C+ +1 D B D
 Sat, Feb 21 241 @Bethune-Cookman L 67 - 74 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 309 Alabama St. W 73 - 70 61%
 Tue, Mar 3 293 Grambling St. W 68 - 66 57%
 Thu, Mar 5 267 Southern W 73 - 72 51%
Totals 15 - 13 11 - 7 -9 D -5 A- D- D+ D+ -4 C- C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D+ C- D- 37% 53% 36% D+ D- D- C D C B- C+ B- D+ D B D D 41% 17% 41% D+ D C- B- C D+ D+ C+ C-
1.01 50% 34% 32% -5 -1 0.91 24% 1.0 .25 17% .34 74% .25 1.14 62% 34% 37% +3 +1 1.10 32% 1.0 .31 16% .33 71% .24
Nov
5		 Indiana F F F C F+ 34% 36% 30% D F+ F A F C+ C+ F F+ F F D+ F F 57% 4% 40% F F B- D+ C B- A- F C-
0.73 35% 28% 33% -12 -2 0.74 8% 1.3 .10 16% .32 53% .17 1.39 80% 50% 43% +18 +3 1.45 27% 1.2 .32 16% .27 100% .27
Nov
13		 Charleston Southern F F B B- F 41% 34% 25% D F A A- A F F A+ F+ B+ F+ A+ A- B- 41% 11% 48% C- C+ F B+ D+ A+ F A D-
0.98 26% 42% 36% -11 -2 0.77 38% 1.2 .45 20% .22 92% .20 0.92 67% 20% 29% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 26% .37 58% .21
Nov
16		 Lindenwood C- B- F A B- 36% 20% 44% D C+ D A C D+ A+ B+ A+ B- F D+ A+ C+ 43% 17% 40% D+ C C+ C C+ B- F B+ D
1.09 63% 22% 40% +2 0 1.07 28% 1.3 .34 19% .46 76% .35 0.96 70% 38% 16% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.1 .32 21% .39 62% .24
Nov
28		 Clemson F+ A- A+ F C+ 22% 37% 41% F C- F F F B+ C D C- F+ F+ F+ D+ D 47% 8% 45% D- D D D- F+ C+ F D+ F
0.79 64% 47% 19% -5 -3 0.86 8% 0.7 .05 16% .29 71% .20 1.30 70% 50% 36% +8 +2 1.22 33% 1.2 .40 16% .54 75% .40
Nov
30		 Coastal Carolina F F D D- F+ 32% 34% 34% C- F+ D- F F D A F B- B A+ C C A 30% 36% 34% B+ A C+ B- C+ C F F F
0.87 44% 35% 29% -8 -2 0.82 20% 0.7 .14 15% .37 64% .24 0.97 31% 38% 33% -9 -3 0.80 24% 0.9 .22 16% .59 82% .48
Dec
3		 Tennessee St. B- C+ A- A+ A- 42% 19% 40% D+ B+ A F+ B- F A+ C A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% B- A+ F A+ C- A F A+ C
1.23 61% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 23% .54 74% .40 0.81 50% 25% 18% -15 -2 0.67 47% 0.7 .34 21% .39 55% .22
Dec
7		 Lipscomb F F F D F 40% 32% 28% D+ F C+ F D- C- A+ C A F F F D F 53% 5% 42% F F B F F+ F B- A+ B+
0.88 42% 27% 31% -11 -1 0.77 33% 0.7 .23 18% .39 71% .28 1.40 73% 67% 38% +12 +3 1.32 21% 1.7 .36 6% .21 62% .13
Dec
15		 North Alabama F F B F F 36% 23% 40% F+ F D+ B- C A- A+ F A+ B D A+ F F 32% 28% 40% A+ D- A+ A+ A+ C C A B-
1.04 35% 45% 21% -14 -1 0.72 32% 1.2 .39 11% .53 68% .36 0.92 60% 23% 42% +1 -1 1.02 12% 0.5 .06 18% .32 59% .19
Dec
17		 Mississippi C F F A+ B 31% 31% 38% D B- F+ A C- C+ B+ D B- D- F+ D- F F 36% 26% 38% F F B+ A A C- F A+ F
1.03 43% 21% 53% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.3 .28 17% .37 65% .24 1.24 73% 45% 50% +17 -1 1.33 26% 0.9 .23 12% .53 60% .32
Dec
21		 Chattanooga F+ D D- F F 43% 20% 37% C F F A- D B- B+ C+ B+ F+ C+ C+ F F+ 33% 17% 50% D+ F+ B+ F C- D- C- A- C+
1.04 52% 30% 28% -7 0 0.88 23% 1.3 .31 13% .41 74% .30 1.14 56% 38% 42% +5 0 1.13 16% 1.6 .25 13% .29 69% .20
Jan
3		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A C D F F+ 44% 20% 36% C- D- A+ C- A+ C- A+ A A+ F D- C- F F 40% 27% 33% C F F F F D- F F+ F
1.30 60% 33% 25% -5 +1 0.93 56% 1.1 .63 16% .52 82% .43 1.49 63% 38% 56% +13 -1 1.27 54% 1.2 .65 16% .48 81% .39
Jan
5		 Mississippi Valley F F F D+ F 43% 14% 43% B- F C- F+ D F A+ A A+ A+ A B- A B+ 30% 36% 34% D+ B B+ D C+ A F+ B D
1.01 44% 17% 33% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.1 .40 24% .56 83% .47 0.72 43% 35% 25% -10 -3 0.77 19% 1.0 .19 26% .34 67% .23
Jan
10		 Alcorn St. F F+ A+ F F 35% 17% 48% D F F+ D- F C- C- F F C- A- F C+ C+ 46% 18% 36% F C C A B F C F D+
0.96 53% 63% 22% -7 0 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 19% .32 53% .17 0.99 48% 44% 33% -4 +1 0.96 26% 0.7 .17 14% .23 77% .18
Jan
12		 Jackson St. C+ A+ D+ D+ C+ 37% 18% 45% C- C+ F A+ C+ C- A+ A- A+ F+ F+ F A- D 32% 13% 55% F D- A+ F B- F F C- F
1.23 78% 33% 32% +5 0 1.12 25% 1.6 .41 16% .63 79% .50 1.12 63% 63% 27% -1 0 1.02 15% 1.5 .22 12% .43 77% .34
Jan
19		 Alabama St. D- A+ F F F 33% 27% 40% F+ F F A+ D B- A+ A A+ C+ F D+ A F 26% 28% 47% A- D- F+ F F A+ D- B+ C-
1.02 80% 17% 22% -5 -1 0.89 20% 1.5 .30 17% .49 83% .40 0.97 83% 38% 27% +2 -2 1.02 37% 1.3 .47 28% .33 65% .21
Jan
24		 Texas Southern C- D- A+ A+ B+ 42% 24% 33% D B F C+ F+ D C- F+ D F F A+ F F 37% 24% 39% C- F C- D+ C- F F D- F
1.10 53% 55% 47% +8 0 1.18 22% 1.1 .25 18% .36 65% .23 1.32 68% 17% 55% +11 0 1.24 27% 1.1 .30 10% .40 75% .30
Jan
27		 Prairie View C+ A+ B B- A- 37% 33% 30% F B F F F C+ F A+ F A D+ A A+ B- 43% 34% 23% D+ B- F A+ A C+ A+ C A+
1.17 75% 44% 38% +10 -2 1.19 26% 0.9 .22 18% .23 92% .21 0.88 58% 26% 23% -8 -1 0.84 34% 0.3 .11 16% .21 75% .16
Jan
31		 Florida A&M C F+ F A+ D+ 32% 23% 45% D- D C- F D- B A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A- F D 41% 27% 32% C- D F A C- C- F F F
1.15 50% 20% 45% +1 -1 1.02 31% 0.7 .22 16% .44 91% .40 1.04 41% 27% 54% 0 -1 1.00 38% 0.6 .24 21% .48 75% .36
Feb
2		 Bethune-Cookman F F F F F 59% 10% 31% A- F D- F F D+ A+ B- A+ D- F A+ F F 49% 18% 33% F+ F A A+ A D+ F A+ D
0.85 38% 0% 20% -22 +3 0.63 25% 0.9 .23 16% .46 75% .35 1.10 72% 22% 41% +8 +1 1.20 19% 0.7 .14 16% .46 54% .25
Feb
7		 Southern D+ F F A+ F 35% 37% 28% F F D- A+ C A+ A+ F A- F F+ D F+ F 45% 20% 35% F F F B- F D- D- F F
1.04 44% 24% 46% -5 -2 0.87 26% 1.4 .35 12% .51 66% .33 1.24 65% 40% 39% +6 +1 1.16 43% 0.9 .40 14% .37 76% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
9		 Grambling St. D F C+ B D- 45% 18% 36% C D F+ D+ F+ D+ A+ C- A A B A+ A+ A+ 40% 11% 49% F+ A+ C+ F+ C- D- F F F
0.99 45% 38% 38% -4 +1 0.95 25% 1.0 .25 21% .46 71% .32 0.87 50% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.67 26% 1.1 .29 18% .49 89% .44
Feb
14		 Mississippi Valley D- F A+ D- D- 41% 23% 36% D+ D- F A+ D B- A+ D+ A+ F B+ A F D 41% 39% 20% D- D D+ C+ C- D- F C F
1.13 50% 60% 31% 0 0 1.02 28% 1.5 .41 16% .54 72% .39 1.02 47% 28% 56% -2 -2 0.93 26% 0.9 .23 17% .40 71% .28
Feb
16		 Arkansas Pine Bluff B+ C+ D A+ A 39% 22% 39% D+ A- D C D+ C- A+ A+ A+ F+ C+ A+ F C 44% 18% 38% F C- F A+ C F B- C C+
1.29 63% 33% 50% +10 0 1.22 30% 1.1 .35 16% .60 88% .52 1.10 55% 11% 42% -2 +1 1.00 36% 0.7 .24 11% .28 75% .21
Feb
19		 Florida A&M D- C D- A C- 45% 27% 27% D C- F A+ D D D- A D+ C+ B- A F+ D 31% 16% 53% D D C- A+ B D A+ D A+
1.00 60% 33% 42% +3 0 1.07 13% 2.0 .25 21% .28 86% .24 0.97 53% 25% 38% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.6 .17 19% .14 71% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 5.6 4.4 10.3 1st
2nd 0.8 20.2 17.9 0.8 39.6 2nd
3rd 5.8 14.6 0.9 21.3 3rd
4th 0.2 12.4 2.4 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 2.1 6.4 8.4 5th
6th 3.1 0.5 3.6 6th
7th 1.6 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 7.1 25.9 37.5 24.3 5.2 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 85.4% 4.4    2.4 2.0 0.1
12-6 23.1% 5.6    0.6 3.1 1.7 0.3
11-7 0.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 3.0 5.1 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 5.2% 16.2% 16.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.3
12-6 24.3% 13.7% 13.7% 16.0 0.0 3.3 21.0
11-7 37.5% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 0.0 4.0 33.4
10-8 25.9% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 1.9 24.0
9-9 7.1% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.4 6.7
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 16.0 89.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 15.9 0.4 10.4 89.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 4.8%