Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.1 70
Expected Predictive Rating +10.4 57
Pace 72.1 84
Improvement +0.4 173

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 49 A B- D+ C- B+
Defense C+ 136 B- C C+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 76 B+ 67% 29 +5.8 17
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 342 C 38% 165 -3.7 342
Three Pointers 47% 60 A 41% 4 +8.0 11
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.5 21 A +8.2 8
1st FG Attempt A 1.22 3
Second Chance C- 28.2% 249 A 1.26 7 B- 0.36 89
Turnovers D+ 18.4% 279
Freethrows C 0.31 179 D 69% 298 C- 0.21 214
Total Offense B+ +6.9 49

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 355 B- 54% 71 -7.0 11
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 237 A- 32% 14 -1.9 41
Three Pointers 53% 4 C- 34% 209 +6.5 357
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 94 B- -1.9 101
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 102
Second Chance C- 32.1% 246 C+ 1.01 151 C 0.32 215
Turnovers C+ 18.0% 110
Freethrows B- 0.27 85 D 75% 324 C+ 0.21 130
Total Defense C+ +1.2 136

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.7 39 18.2 311
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 282 0.14 81
Improvement +3.6 #34 -3.3 #317

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36% 36% 30%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3% 4% 1%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 11.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round34% 35% 30%
Second Round6% 7% 5%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 89.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 26 - 26 - 2
Quad 312 - 317 - 5
Quad 49 - 127 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 349 Air Force W 79 - 63 98% +4  63% 1 - 0 C +0 C+ +2 C+ F B+ C -1 F D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 250 Tennessee St. W 87 - 79 92% +6  97% 2 - 0 C +0 D -6 C+ F D B +5 A- C+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 338 @Oral Roberts W 83 - 60 93% +6  65% 3 - 0 B+ +14 C- -2 A- A F A+ +14 A+ B C-
 Wed, Nov 19 194 Lipscomb W 75 - 68 89% +7  89% 4 - 0 C+ +2 F -10 D+ B F A +11 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 356 St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 57 97% +16  94% 5 - 0 A +22 B+ +8 A D+ C A+ +13 A B A
 Wed, Nov 26 171 Toledo W 87 - 72 80% +3  63% 6 - 0 B+ +14 B +7 A+ A+ F B+ +7 B C C+
 Sun, Nov 30 159 @College of Charleston W 96 - 73 69% +19  96% 7 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +23 A+ D+ A B- +3 A+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 3 131 Richmond L 76 - 84 81% +0  42% 7 - 1 D -9 D -5 C+ B F+ D+ -4 F A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 168 @Middle Tennessee W 83 - 62 70% +8  82% 8 - 1 A+ +24 B+ +8 A C+ A- A+ +15 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 117 Illinois-Chicago W 87 - 84 78% -3  26% 9 - 1 1 - 0 C+ +3 A+ +22 A+ B D+ F -19 F D+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 278 @Evansville W 83 - 78 86% +7  99% 10 - 1 2 - 0 C +1 C +1 C+ F D+ C +0 C+ C+ D
 Fri, Dec 19 121 @UC Irvine W 84 - 58 59% +8  75% 11 - 1 A+ +32 A+ +17 A+ B- F+ A+ +15 A A F+
 Mon, Dec 29 200 @Indiana St. L 80 - 81 OT 76% +2  68% 11 - 2 2 - 1 C -0 C- -1 C+ C- F C+ +1 C- C- C
 Thu, Jan 1 114 Bradley W 88 - 78 77% +3  85% 12 - 2 3 - 1 B +10 A +13 A+ A+ F+ C- -3 F+ D+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 128 Southern Illinois L 67 - 68 80% -0  33% 12 - 3 3 - 2 C- -2 D+ -4 A+ D F C+ +2 C C- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 91 @Northern Iowa W 78 - 65 48% +8  95% 13 - 3 4 - 2 A +22 A+ +26 A+ B+ A+ C- -2 B C F
 Sat, Jan 10 189 @Drake W 78 - 76 75% -11  4% 14 - 3 5 - 2 C+ +3 C- -2 F A F B +5 F A A+
 Tue, Jan 13 170 Valparaiso W 78 - 74 86% +3  79% 15 - 3 6 - 2 C +0 B+ +8 A+ F B+ D -7 C+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 128 @Southern Illinois W 73 - 68 62% +2  58% 16 - 3 7 - 2 B +10 B- +5 C- B A+ B +5 A C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 103 Illinois St. W 80 - 69 73% +6  79% 17 - 3 8 - 2 B+ +13 B +7 A+ C- F+ B +6 A+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 28 170 @Valparaiso W 78 - 77 71% +2  60% 18 - 3 9 - 2 C+ +3 B +7 A+ A- F D+ -4 F+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 119 Murray St. W 103 - 86 78% +20  96% 19 - 3 10 - 2 A- +17 A+ +24 A+ A+ A D -7 A F B
 Tue, Feb 3 189 Drake W 103 - 90 88% +8  92% 20 - 3 11 - 2 B +8 A+ +24 A+ A A+ F -15 F F B+
 Fri, Feb 6 117 @Illinois-Chicago W 68 - 62 58% +9  96% 21 - 3 12 - 2 B+ +12 B- +5 A+ F+ F A- +8 C A+ C-
 Mon, Feb 9 114 @Bradley L 84 - 95 OT 57% -2  27% 21 - 4 12 - 3 C- -5 B- +4 C A+ D- D- -8 D- B- F+
 Thu, Feb 12 91 Northern Iowa W 91 - 86 70% +2  76% 22 - 4 13 - 3 B- +8 A+ +20 A+ B- B F -12 D C- C
 Sun, Feb 15 119 @Murray St. W 87 - 70 58% -3  33% 23 - 4 14 - 3 A+ +23 B+ +8 A C- D+ A+ +15 B+ A- A-
 Sat, Feb 21 200 Indiana St. W 86 - 73 90%
 Wed, Feb 25 278 Evansville W 86 - 68 95%
 Sun, Mar 1 103 @Illinois St. W 77 - 76 51%
Totals 25 - 5 16 - 4 +8 B+ +7 D A B+ C+ +1 A D C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B+ C A A 42% 20% 47% B+ A C- A B- D+ C D C- C+ B- A- C- B- 29% 19% 53% B- B- C- C+ C C+ B- D C+
1.18 67% 38% 41% +8 +2 1.22 28% 1.3 .36 18% .31 69% .21 1.07 54% 32% 34% -2 0 0.97 32% 1.0 .32 18% .27 75% .23
Nov
3		 Air Force C+ A F D- C 48% 10% 42% A C+ D F F B+ A+ A+ A+ C F D- D F 33% 23% 44% A F F A D A+ A F B
1.19 74% 20% 30% +3 +2 1.13 26% 0.8 .19 12% .43 84% .36 0.95 79% 40% 37% +9 -1 1.19 35% 0.9 .30 35% .21 78% .16
Nov
8		 Tennessee St. D A+ F F C- 57% 6% 37% A- C+ F+ F F D A+ F A B A A+ C- A 32% 30% 38% B- A- D- A- C+ C C- F D-
1.07 76% 0% 26% +4 +3 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 21% .51 67% .34 0.97 45% 21% 33% -10 -2 0.79 36% 0.8 .30 16% .29 85% .25
Nov
15		 Oral Roberts C- B- D+ A+ A 45% 16% 39% C- A- C+ A+ A F D+ F F A+ C+ F A+ A+ 33% 15% 52% C+ A+ B B- B C- F D F
1.10 59% 38% 47% +8 +1 1.20 35% 1.5 .52 25% .30 47% .14 0.80 53% 50% 11% -18 0 0.67 23% 0.9 .20 17% .42 77% .32
Nov
19		 Lipscomb F C D D- D- 33% 7% 60% A D+ C A- B F A+ C+ A+ A A+ D- A+ A+ 27% 8% 64% B- A+ F D- F A+ A- F B
0.96 60% 33% 30% -4 +1 0.98 31% 1.2 .37 28% .52 72% .38 0.87 31% 40% 24% -17 +1 0.69 36% 1.2 .42 24% .17 90% .15
Nov
24		 St. Francis (PA) B+ B D A+ A 42% 6% 53% B+ A F A+ D+ C F A- F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 33% 15% 52% D- A C A+ B A C- D D+
1.31 68% 33% 50% +17 +2 1.40 24% 1.5 .36 18% .24 79% .19 0.79 41% 50% 22% -13 0 0.77 27% 0.7 .20 24% .27 73% .20
Nov
26		 Toledo B B+ A A+ A+ 36% 4% 60% B A+ B A+ A+ F F D- F B+ D+ B B+ B+ 33% 15% 53% D- B A+ F C C+ A- A- A
1.22 67% 50% 50% +18 +2 1.42 40% 1.6 .64 28% .06 67% .04 1.01 61% 38% 31% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.7 .29 17% .22 69% .15
Nov
30		 College of Charleston A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 20% 48% B- A+ D+ D+ D+ A A- F C+ B- A+ A+ A A+ 13% 17% 69% B+ A+ D D D- F F C+ F
1.36 83% 55% 48% +22 0 1.45 28% 0.9 .24 8% .29 58% .17 1.03 43% 22% 25% -14 -1 0.71 33% 1.2 .39 11% .48 73% .35
Dec
3		 Richmond D B+ F D- C- 38% 5% 56% A+ C+ D A+ B F+ D F F D+ B B- F F 25% 33% 42% B+ F A+ C A+ C+ C+ D+ C
1.03 67% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.6 .41 20% .26 47% .12 1.14 54% 35% 59% +14 -3 1.25 10% 1.0 .10 16% .32 80% .26
Dec
7		 Middle Tennessee B+ A A C+ A 46% 19% 35% C+ A C- B+ C+ A- F F F A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 14% 27% 59% A+ A+ B F D+ F C F D+
1.18 69% 45% 35% +7 +1 1.18 24% 1.2 .30 11% .21 38% .08 0.88 38% 40% 18% -16 -3 0.64 26% 1.2 .30 11% .26 75% .19
Dec
13		 Illinois-Chicago A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 5% 56% A A+ A- D+ B D+ A+ D+ A+ F D+ B F F 20% 24% 56% A F D- C+ D+ F A F C
1.36 65% 50% 54% +20 +2 1.47 44% 0.9 .40 22% .44 73% .32 1.32 60% 33% 43% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 13% .23 100% .23
Dec
16		 Evansville C D+ F A+ C- 50% 13% 37% A C+ F C- F D+ A+ C A+ C A+ A- F+ B- 24% 19% 57% D+ C+ C- B+ C+ D F F F
1.09 56% 14% 45% +2 +2 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 18% .40 72% .29 1.02 38% 30% 39% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.9 .22 17% .38 83% .32
Dec
19		 UC Irvine A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 9% 43% A+ A+ D+ A B- F+ B+ B+ A- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 25% 27% 48% B A A A A F+ C+ A+ B
1.21 48% 75% 55% +12 +2 1.30 30% 1.1 .33 22% .31 76% .24 0.83 38% 21% 32% -11 -2 0.77 23% 0.8 .19 13% .28 59% .17
Dec
29		 Indiana St. C- F F A+ C- 46% 11% 44% A C+ D C+ C- F B- A+ A- C+ A- A+ F D+ 39% 11% 50% B C- F+ B+ C- C F A+ D
1.06 46% 17% 44% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 21% .28 82% .23 1.07 52% 17% 44% +3 +1 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 18% .42 50% .21
Jan
1		 Bradley A B F A+ A 50% 2% 48% A+ A+ A+ B A+ F+ A+ C A+ C- B+ C+ F F+ 24% 18% 58% C+ F+ F A+ D+ A+ C A+ B
1.26 64% 0% 43% +8 +3 1.25 43% 1.1 .46 23% .56 73% .41 1.12 50% 33% 45% +7 -1 1.14 41% 0.8 .32 23% .32 65% .20
Jan
4		 Southern Illinois D+ A- A+ F+ A 61% 14% 25% A+ A+ C- D- D F A F C- C+ A- F+ D D+ 28% 32% 40% A- C F A- C- A+ B+ A- A-
0.97 67% 67% 27% +7 +3 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 23% .37 50% .19 0.98 50% 50% 35% +2 -2 1.02 38% 0.8 .30 26% .25 62% .16
Jan
7		 Northern Iowa A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 9% 42% A A+ C- A+ B+ A+ B- F D C- D- A+ B- B+ 29% 8% 63% C B C C- C F A- C B+
1.33 73% 50% 47% +17 +2 1.40 22% 1.4 .30 10% .29 53% .15 1.11 67% 0% 31% -3 +1 0.98 22% 1.1 .24 5% .18 70% .13
Jan
10		 Drake C- D+ F F F 33% 11% 56% A- F A B+ A F A+ A- A+ B B+ A+ F F 19% 13% 67% C F B- A+ A A+ B+ A- A-
1.07 56% 17% 27% -9 +1 0.85 39% 1.1 .41 19% .43 76% .32 1.04 50% 29% 46% +9 0 1.19 23% 0.8 .17 23% .25 64% .16
Jan
13		 Valparaiso B+ A+ C- A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% B A+ F D F B+ F A+ F D F B- B C- 12% 36% 52% A+ C+ D- F F B- A- A+ A+
1.20 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 20% 0.8 .16 14% .11 100% .11 1.14 83% 33% 31% -1 -4 0.92 37% 1.6 .58 17% .28 53% .15
Jan
17		 Southern Illinois B- A+ F F D+ 40% 19% 40% C+ C- B B- B A+ A C A B A- A+ C A 36% 20% 44% D A B C- C+ C+ D F F
1.05 71% 30% 19% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.1 .35 13% .38 70% .27 0.98 50% 20% 32% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.0 .26 17% .35 85% .30
Jan
24		 Illinois St. B A+ A A+ A+ 38% 31% 31% C- A+ F A+ C- F+ A- F B- B B+ A+ A A+ 28% 19% 53% C+ A+ F D F A- F+ F F
1.15 72% 47% 53% +17 -1 1.33 12% 2.0 .23 20% .38 62% .23 0.99 54% 22% 28% -9 -1 0.83 35% 1.2 .43 20% .36 85% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Valparaiso B B- C- A+ A+ 33% 14% 53% C+ A+ D A+ A- F A- F+ B- D+ F A F+ F 28% 28% 43% C F+ C+ A+ A+ D C- F+ D+
1.14 64% 33% 48% +13 0 1.28 27% 1.4 .38 22% .38 65% .24 1.13 73% 27% 39% +5 -2 1.08 31% 0.6 .19 13% .35 76% .27
Jan
31		 Murray St. A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 24% 33% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ D- A- D F A+ A+ A 35% 20% 46% B- A F F F B F F F
1.46 63% 54% 44% +11 0 1.24 47% 1.5 .69 11% .40 68% .27 1.22 81% 22% 19% -5 0 0.91 47% 1.4 .68 18% .45 85% .38
Feb
3		 Drake A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 34% 14% 53% B+ A+ D- A+ A A+ F+ F F F B+ F F F 31% 20% 49% C F F F F B+ B- D C+
1.47 80% 38% 48% +19 +1 1.41 24% 1.8 .42 7% .23 53% .12 1.29 50% 50% 48% +10 0 1.22 36% 1.7 .61 17% .28 75% .21
Feb
6		 Illinois-Chicago B- A- F A+ A+ 21% 9% 70% C A+ D F F+ F B F D A- C- F A+ C- 39% 27% 34% B C C+ A+ A+ C- D B C-
1.07 67% 25% 43% +10 0 1.23 31% 0.8 .23 27% .35 56% .19 0.98 59% 58% 20% -1 -1 0.98 35% 0.5 .18 17% .36 68% .25
Feb
9		 Bradley B- A+ F D- C- 25% 19% 57% B- C B+ A+ A+ D- A- B- A- D- A A+ F D- 29% 15% 56% D+ D- B- B- B- F+ D- D+ D-
1.09 85% 20% 30% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.4 .53 22% .40 75% .30 1.23 47% 11% 48% +5 0 1.12 24% 1.0 .24 10% .37 77% .29
Feb
12		 Northern Iowa A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 38% 8% 55% B+ A+ F A+ B- B B A+ A- F C- F D D 41% 16% 43% C D B F C- C F F F
1.28 65% 100% 45% +16 +2 1.38 13% 2.0 .25 15% .30 83% .25 1.21 62% 50% 36% +5 +1 1.14 18% 1.4 .25 14% .39 96% .38
Feb
15		 Murray St. B+ B+ F A+ A- 52% 8% 40% A+ A F A+ C- D+ B A+ A A+ C+ A+ C B+ 24% 18% 58% B+ B+ C+ A+ A- A- D+ A+ B
1.19 63% 0% 43% +5 +3 1.17 21% 1.5 .32 18% .33 85% .28 0.96 58% 22% 34% -2 -1 0.96 32% 0.8 .27 20% .36 62% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 7.6 48.2 43.9 100.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.3 7.6 48.2 43.9 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 43.9    43.9
16-4 100.0% 48.2    48.2
15-5 100.0% 7.6    7.0 0.6
14-6 90.3% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 99.2 0.7 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 43.9% 38.8% 35.1% 3.8% 11.2 0.0 0.5 12.2 4.4 0.0 26.9 5.8%
16-4 48.2% 34.4% 33.1% 1.3% 11.5 0.0 7.9 8.5 0.1 31.6 1.9%
15-5 7.6% 27.6% 27.1% 0.5% 11.7 0.7 1.3 0.1 5.5 0.7%
14-6 0.3% 22.6% 22.6% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 35.8% 33.5% 2.3% 11.4 64.2 3.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.4% 100.0% 11.2 0.1 3.1 69.0 27.8 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.7% 7.5% 11.0 0.1 7.1 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.8% 5.9% 11.0 5.6 0.3