Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.9 #74
Expected Predictive Rating +10.2 #59
Pace 72.7 #78
Improvement +1.0 #141

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #49 A+ B- C- C- B+
Defense #135 B- C- C+ B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #50 1.32 #32 +6.6 #15
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #343 0.80 #114 -3.4 #335
Three Pointers 45% #92 1.24 #6 +7.2 #16
1st FG Attempt 1.23 #3 +10.4 #3
Freethrows 0.31 #173 68% #311 0.21 #225
Second Chance 28.9% #224 1.25 #8 0.36 #81
Turnovers 18.3% #268
Total Offense +6.8 #49

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #358 1.07 #69 +7.5 #9
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #244 0.62 #12 +2.1 #41
Three Pointers 54% #3 1.03 #200 -6.8 #357
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #85 +2.8 #85
Freethrows 0.26 #53 76% #336 0.20 #92
Second Chance 33.0% #285 1.04 #198 0.34 #254
Turnovers 18.3% #98
Total Defense +1.0 #135

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.1% #20 -0.9% #94
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.7% #8 -4.6% #91
Possession Length 15.7 #41 18.2 #315
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #264 0.14 #62
Improvement +5.0 #7 -4.0 #347

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.5% 36.8% 30.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.2% 3.1% 0.8%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 11.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 93.1% 97.1% 86.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.9% 0.5%
First Round33.7% 35.5% 30.5%
Second Round6.7% 7.4% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 62.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 25 - 16 - 2
Quad 312 - 317 - 5
Quad 49 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 350 Air Force W 79 - 63 97% +4  1 - 0 +1 +6 B- F A- -4 F D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 237 Tennessee St. W 87 - 79 92% +6  2 - 0 +1 -2 C+ F D+ +2 A- C C
 Sat, Nov 15 336 @Oral Roberts W 83 - 60 92% +6  3 - 0 +15 +1 A- A F +12 A+ B- C-
 Wed, Nov 19 186 Lipscomb W 75 - 68 88% +7  4 - 0 +2 -8 C- B- F +9 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 358 St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 57 97% +16  5 - 0 +22 +11 A+ C- C +10 A B A
 Wed, Nov 26 161 Toledo W 87 - 72 78% +3  6 - 0 +15 +10 A+ A+ F +4 B- C C+
 Sun, Nov 30 151 @College of Charleston W 96 - 73 67% +19  7 - 0 +26 +24 A+ D A+ +2 A+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 3 137 Richmond L 76 - 84 81% +0  7 - 1 -10 -3 C B D- -7 F A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 167 @Middle Tennessee W 83 - 62 70% +8  8 - 1 +23 +12 A B- A- +11 A+ D F+
 Sat, Dec 13 134 Illinois-Chicago W 87 - 84 81% -3  9 - 1 1 - 0 +2 +23 A+ B- C- -21 F C- F
 Tue, Dec 16 288 @Evansville W 83 - 78 87% +7  10 - 1 2 - 0 +1 +3 C+ F+ C -3 C B- D-
 Fri, Dec 19 115 @UC Irvine W 84 - 58 57% +8  11 - 1 +32 +20 A+ B- F+ +13 A A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 29 192 @Indiana St. L 80 - 81 OT 74% +2  11 - 2 2 - 1 +0 +2 C+ C- F -2 C- C- C
 Thu, Jan 1 120 Bradley W 88 - 78 78% +3  12 - 2 3 - 1 +10 +15 A+ A+ D- -5 D- C- A+
 Sun, Jan 4 129 Southern Illinois L 67 - 68 80% -0  12 - 3 3 - 2 -2 -1 A+ D F+ -1 C C A+
 Wed, Jan 7 110 @Northern Iowa W 78 - 65 55% +8  13 - 3 4 - 2 +20 +29 A+ B A+ -7 B- C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 164 @Drake W 78 - 76 70% -11  14 - 3 5 - 2 +5 +3 F A F+ +2 F+ A A+
 Tue, Jan 13 159 Valparaiso W 78 - 74 85% +3  15 - 3 6 - 2 +1 +11 A+ F+ A- -10 C+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 129 @Southern Illinois W 73 - 68 61% +2  16 - 3 7 - 2 +10 +8 C- B- A+ +2 A- C+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 89 Illinois St. W 80 - 69 68% +6  17 - 3 8 - 2 +14 +11 A+ C D +3 A+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 28 159 @Valparaiso W 78 - 77 69% +2  18 - 3 9 - 2 +4 +10 A+ A- F -7 D- A D+
 Sat, Jan 31 105 Murray St. W 103 - 86 74% +20  19 - 3 10 - 2 +18 +27 A+ A+ A+ -9 A F B
 Tue, Feb 3 164 Drake W 103 - 90 85% +8  20 - 3 11 - 2 +10 +28 A+ A+ A+ -18 F F B
 Fri, Feb 6 134 @Illinois-Chicago W 78 - 75 62%
 Mon, Feb 9 120 @Bradley W 81 - 79 59%
 Thu, Feb 12 110 Northern Iowa W 72 - 65 75%
 Sun, Feb 15 105 @Murray St. W 88 - 87 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 192 Indiana St. W 87 - 74 89%
 Wed, Feb 25 288 Evansville W 86 - 68 95%
 Sun, Mar 1 89 @Illinois St. L 75 - 76 45%
Totals 25 - 5 16 - 4 +8 +7 A+ B- C- +1 B- C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 8.3 24.2 31.3 22.3 6.5 93.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 3.0 0.8 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.8 0.3 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 3.0 11.6 25.0 31.3 22.3 6.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 6.5    6.5
17-3 100.0% 22.3    22.3
16-4 100.0% 31.3    30.6 0.8
15-5 96.8% 24.2    18.1 5.8 0.3
14-6 71.7% 8.3    2.6 3.9 1.7 0.2
13-7 17.2% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-8 3.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 93.1% 93.1 79.9 10.6 2.1 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 6.5% 53.0% 44.7% 8.3% 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.3 0.2 3.1 15.0%
17-3 22.3% 40.5% 38.2% 2.3% 11.3 0.2 6.3 2.5 0.0 13.2 3.8%
16-4 31.3% 34.2% 33.2% 1.0% 11.4 0.1 5.9 4.8 0.0 20.6 1.4%
15-5 25.0% 29.7% 29.4% 0.3% 11.7 2.7 4.6 0.1 17.5 0.5%
14-6 11.6% 27.2% 27.2% 11.8 0.8 2.3 0.1 8.4
13-7 3.0% 23.8% 23.8% 11.9 0.1 0.6 0.0 2.3
12-8 0.3% 18.2% 18.2% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 34.5% 33.1% 1.4% 11.4 65.5 2.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 10.7 1.7 5.9 23.1 63.4 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1% 18.0% 10.9 0.9 17.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3% 11.2% 10.9 0.8 10.4