Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#69
Expected Predictive Rating+11.4#52
Pace75.2#46
Improvement+1.3#101

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#66
First Shot+5.3#50
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#197
Layup/Dunks+2.3#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#23
Freethrows-1.6#282
Improvement+2.9#22

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#87
First Shot+1.9#114
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#95
Layups/Dunks+8.2#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#346
Freethrows+0.5#148
Improvement-1.6#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.5% 31.1% 24.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.4% 2.9% 1.1%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 11.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.8% 95.0%
Conference Champion 39.2% 43.7% 24.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.4% 1.7% 0.6%
First Round28.8% 30.3% 23.9%
Second Round7.1% 7.6% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 76.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 24 - 34 - 3
Quad 311 - 315 - 7
Quad 411 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 322 Air Force W 79-63 96%     1 - 0 +3.2 +6.1 -2.1
  Sat, Nov 8 237 Tennessee St. W 87-79 92%     2 - 0 +0.5 +0.8 -1.4
  Sat, Nov 15 303 @Oral Roberts W 83-60 88%     3 - 0 +18.0 +1.6 +14.8
  Wed, Nov 19 144 Lipscomb W 75-68 82%     4 - 0 +5.2 -5.0 +9.4
  Mon, Nov 24 361 St. Francis (PA) W 94-57 98%     5 - 0 +21.5 +12.2 +8.4
  Wed, Nov 26 170 Toledo W 87-72 80%     6 - 0 +14.3 +9.2 +4.9
  Sun, Nov 30 169 @College of Charleston W 96-73 71%     7 - 0 +25.4 +22.9 +2.3
  Wed, Dec 3 104 Richmond L 76-84 74%     7 - 1 -6.5 +0.3 -6.5
  Sun, Dec 7 158 @Middle Tennessee W 83-62 68%     8 - 1 +24.2 +12.0 +12.0
  Sat, Dec 13 200 Illinois-Chicago W 87-84 89%     9 - 1 1 - 0 -2.4 +19.5 -21.7
  Tue, Dec 16 252 @Evansville W 83-78 83%     10 - 1 2 - 0 +2.8 +4.5 -2.1
  Fri, Dec 19 131 @UC Irvine W 84-58 62%     11 - 1 +30.8 +18.3 +12.7
  Mon, Dec 29 201 @Indiana St. W 84-76 76%    
  Thu, Jan 1 108 Bradley W 79-72 75%    
  Sun, Jan 4 130 Southern Illinois W 84-75 80%    
  Wed, Jan 7 93 @Northern Iowa L 68-69 46%    
  Sat, Jan 10 143 @Drake W 77-73 64%    
  Tue, Jan 13 219 Valparaiso W 83-68 91%    
  Sat, Jan 17 130 @Southern Illinois W 81-78 61%    
  Sun, Jan 25 82 Illinois St. W 79-75 65%    
  Wed, Jan 28 219 @Valparaiso W 80-71 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 100 Murray St. W 89-83 70%    
  Tue, Feb 3 143 Drake W 80-70 81%    
  Fri, Feb 6 200 @Illinois-Chicago W 82-75 75%    
  Mon, Feb 9 108 @Bradley W 76-75 54%    
  Thu, Feb 12 93 Northern Iowa W 71-66 67%    
  Sun, Feb 15 100 @Murray St. L 85-86 49%    
  Sat, Feb 21 201 Indiana St. W 87-73 89%    
  Wed, Feb 25 252 Evansville W 83-67 93%    
  Sun, Mar 1 82 @Illinois St. L 76-78 44%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.0 10.6 10.6 6.8 2.7 0.6 39.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.3 7.1 8.6 4.5 1.1 0.1 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.7 5.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 3.5 1.0 0.1 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.3 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.2 8.3 12.2 15.4 16.6 15.3 11.7 6.8 2.7 0.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7 0.0
18-2 99.3% 6.8    6.3 0.4
17-3 90.3% 10.6    8.5 2.0 0.1
16-4 68.8% 10.6    6.4 3.6 0.5 0.0
15-5 36.0% 6.0    2.2 2.8 0.9 0.1
14-6 11.4% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 39.2% 39.2 27.0 9.6 2.1 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 79.4% 53.4% 25.9% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 55.7%
19-1 2.7% 65.7% 50.2% 15.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.9 31.0%
18-2 6.8% 51.5% 44.3% 7.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 0.4 3.3 12.8%
17-3 11.7% 42.5% 39.1% 3.4% 11.2 0.0 0.2 3.4 1.3 0.0 6.7 5.6%
16-4 15.3% 35.3% 34.2% 1.1% 11.4 0.0 0.1 3.1 2.2 0.0 9.9 1.7%
15-5 16.6% 29.8% 29.4% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 2.0 2.8 0.1 11.7 0.7%
14-6 15.4% 24.7% 24.6% 0.1% 11.8 1.0 2.6 0.2 11.6 0.1%
13-7 12.2% 18.2% 18.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.0 0.1%
12-8 8.3% 15.9% 15.9% 12.1 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 7.0
11-9 5.2% 10.7% 10.7% 12.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.6
10-10 3.0% 10.8% 10.8% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.7
9-11 1.4% 7.3% 7.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
8-12 0.5% 4.3% 4.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
7-13 0.2% 7.8% 7.8% 14.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.5% 27.8% 1.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 13.4 12.5 1.2 0.1 70.5 2.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 6.6 5.0 10.9 16.8 19.8 15.8 14.9 5.9 6.9 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 60.6% 10.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 27.3 24.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 48.6% 9.7 2.7 18.9 13.5 13.5