Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.5 78
Expected Predictive Rating +9.8 59
Pace 72.3 83
Improvement -0.7 214

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 49 A B- D+ C- B+
Defense C 153 B- C- C+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 81 B+ 67% 32 +5.8 20
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% 343 C+ 40% 109 -3.4 336
Three Pointers 47% 62 A 41% 4 +8.0 12
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.5 23 A +8.4 7
1st FG Attempt A 1.23 2
Second Chance C- 28.5% 237 A 1.26 6 B- 0.36 87
Turnovers D+ 18.4% 275
Freethrows C 0.31 183 D 68% 314 C- 0.21 221
Total Offense B+ +6.9 49

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 356 B- 54% 78 +6.9 15
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 237 B+ 33% 18 +1.8 52
Three Pointers 53% 4 C- 34% 206 -6.4 357
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 96 C+ -1.8 104
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 103
Second Chance C- 32.2% 250 C 1.02 175 C- 0.33 232
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 118
Freethrows B- 0.27 79 D- 76% 346 C+ 0.21 132
Total Defense C +0.5 153

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.7 37 18.2 311
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 293 0.14 79
Improvement +4.2 #16 -4.8 #355

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31% 32% 29%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1% 2% 0%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 11.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 99% 100% 98%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round30% 31% 29%
Second Round5% 6% 5%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 53.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 25 - 25 - 2
Quad 311 - 317 - 5
Quad 49 - 126 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 348 Air Force W 79 - 63 97% +4  63% 1 - 0 C +1 C+ +2 C+ F+ B+ C -1 F D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 241 Tennessee St. W 87 - 79 91% +6  97% 2 - 0 C +1 D -5 C+ F D B +5 A- C+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 333 @Oral Roberts W 83 - 60 92% +6  65% 3 - 0 A- +15 C- -1 A- A F A+ +15 A+ B- C-
 Wed, Nov 19 188 Lipscomb W 75 - 68 87% +7  89% 4 - 0 C+ +2 F -10 D+ B- F A +12 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 355 St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 57 97% +16  94% 5 - 0 A +23 B+ +9 A+ D+ C+ A +13 A B A
 Wed, Nov 26 164 Toledo W 87 - 72 77% +3  63% 6 - 0 A- +15 B+ +7 A+ A+ F B+ +7 B C C+
 Sun, Nov 30 162 @College of Charleston W 96 - 73 68% +19  96% 7 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +22 A+ D A+ B- +3 A+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 3 127 Richmond L 76 - 84 79% +0  42% 7 - 1 D -9 D -5 C+ B- F+ C- -3 F A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 167 @Middle Tennessee W 83 - 62 68% +8  82% 8 - 1 A+ +24 B+ +8 A C+ A- A+ +15 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 128 Illinois-Chicago W 87 - 84 79% -3  26% 9 - 1 1 - 0 C+ +2 A+ +21 A+ B- D+ F -19 F D+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 275 @Evansville W 83 - 78 85% +7  99% 10 - 1 2 - 0 C +1 C +1 C+ F D+ C+ +0 C+ C+ D
 Fri, Dec 19 123 @UC Irvine W 84 - 58 58% +8  75% 11 - 1 A+ +31 A+ +17 A+ B- F+ A+ +15 A A F+
 Mon, Dec 29 198 @Indiana St. L 80 - 81 OT 74% +2  68% 11 - 2 2 - 1 C -0 C- -0 C+ C- F C +0 C- D+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 119 Bradley W 88 - 78 77% +3  85% 12 - 2 3 - 1 B +10 A +13 A+ A F+ C- -3 D- D+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 122 Southern Illinois L 67 - 68 78% -0  33% 12 - 3 3 - 2 C -2 D+ -4 A+ D F+ B- +2 C C A+
 Wed, Jan 7 99 @Northern Iowa W 78 - 65 47% +8  95% 13 - 3 4 - 2 A +21 A+ +26 A+ B+ A+ C- -3 B C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 182 @Drake W 78 - 76 71% -11  4% 14 - 3 5 - 2 C+ +4 C- -1 F A F B +5 F A A+
 Tue, Jan 13 163 Valparaiso W 78 - 74 84% +3  79% 15 - 3 6 - 2 C +1 B+ +9 A+ F+ A- D- -8 C F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 122 @Southern Illinois W 73 - 68 58% +2  58% 16 - 3 7 - 2 B +10 B- +5 C- B A+ B +5 A C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 90 Illinois St. W 80 - 69 67% +6  79% 17 - 3 8 - 2 B+ +14 B+ +7 A+ C- F+ B+ +7 A+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 28 163 @Valparaiso W 78 - 77 68% +2  60% 18 - 3 9 - 2 C+ +4 B+ +8 A+ A- F D+ -4 F+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 111 Murray St. W 103 - 86 75% +20  96% 19 - 3 10 - 2 A- +17 A+ +23 A+ A+ A D -6 A F B
 Tue, Feb 3 182 Drake W 103 - 90 86% +8  92% 20 - 3 11 - 2 B +9 A+ +24 A+ A A+ F -15 F F B+
 Fri, Feb 6 128 @Illinois-Chicago W 68 - 62 60% +9  96% 21 - 3 12 - 2 B +11 B- +4 A+ F+ F B+ +8 C- A+ C-
 Mon, Feb 9 119 @Bradley L 84 - 95 OT 57% -2  27% 21 - 4 12 - 3 D+ -5 C+ +3 C A+ D D- -7 D- B- F+
 Thu, Feb 12 99 Northern Iowa W 91 - 86 70% +2  76% 22 - 4 13 - 3 B- +7 A+ +20 A+ B- B F -13 D C- C-
 Sun, Feb 15 111 @Murray St. W 88 - 87 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 198 Indiana St. W 86 - 73 89%
 Wed, Feb 25 275 Evansville W 86 - 69 94%
 Sun, Mar 1 90 @Illinois St. L 77 - 78 45%
Totals 25 - 5 16 - 4 +7 F +7 D+ A B+ B- +1 A D C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B+ C+ A A 42% 11% 47% B+ A C- A B- D+ C D C- C B- B+ C- C+ 29% 19% 53% B- B- C- C C- C+ B- D- C+
1.19 67% 40% 41% +8 +1 1.23 29% 1.3 .36 18% .31 68% .21 1.08 54% 33% 34% -2 0 0.97 32% 1.0 .33 18% .27 76% .23
Nov
3		 Air Force C+ A F D- C 48% 10% 42% A C+ D F F+ B+ A+ A+ A+ C F D- D F 33% 23% 44% A F F A D A+ A F B
1.19 74% 20% 30% +3 +2 1.13 26% 0.8 .19 12% .43 84% .36 0.95 79% 40% 37% +9 -1 1.19 35% 0.9 .30 35% .21 78% .16
Nov
8		 Tennessee St. D A+ F F C 57% 6% 37% A- C+ F+ F F D A+ F A B A A+ C- A 32% 30% 38% B- A- D- A- C+ C- D+ F D-
1.07 76% 0% 26% +4 +3 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 21% .51 67% .34 0.97 45% 21% 33% -10 -2 0.79 36% 0.8 .30 16% .29 85% .25
Nov
15		 Oral Roberts C- B- D+ A+ A 45% 16% 39% C- A- B- A+ A F D+ F F A+ C+ F A+ A+ 33% 15% 52% C+ A+ B C+ B- C- F D F
1.10 59% 38% 47% +8 +1 1.20 35% 1.5 .52 25% .30 47% .14 0.80 53% 50% 11% -18 0 0.67 23% 0.9 .20 17% .42 77% .32
Nov
19		 Lipscomb F C D D- D- 33% 7% 60% A D+ C A- B- F A+ C A+ A A+ D- A+ A+ 27% 8% 64% B- A+ F D F A+ A- F B
0.96 60% 33% 30% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.2 .37 28% .52 72% .38 0.87 31% 40% 24% -17 +1 0.69 36% 1.2 .42 24% .17 90% .15
Nov
24		 St. Francis (PA) B+ B D A+ A+ 42% 6% 53% B+ A+ F A+ D+ C+ F A F A A+ F A+ A+ 33% 15% 52% D- A C A B A D+ D D+
1.31 68% 33% 50% +17 +2 1.40 24% 1.5 .36 18% .24 79% .19 0.79 41% 50% 22% -13 0 0.77 27% 0.7 .20 24% .27 73% .20
Nov
26		 Toledo B+ B+ A A+ A+ 36% 4% 60% B A+ B A+ A+ F F D- F B+ D+ B B+ B+ 33% 15% 53% D- B A+ F C C+ A- A- A
1.22 67% 50% 50% +18 +2 1.42 40% 1.6 .64 28% .06 67% .04 1.01 61% 38% 31% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.7 .29 17% .22 69% .15
Nov
30		 College of Charleston A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 20% 48% B- A+ D+ D D A+ B+ F C B- A+ A+ A A+ 13% 17% 69% B+ A+ D D- D- F F C+ F
1.36 83% 55% 48% +22 0 1.45 28% 0.9 .24 8% .29 58% .17 1.03 43% 22% 25% -14 -1 0.71 33% 1.2 .39 11% .48 73% .35
Dec
3		 Richmond D B+ F D- C- 38% 5% 56% A+ C+ D A+ B- F+ D F F C- B B- F F 25% 33% 42% B+ F A+ C A+ C+ C D C-
1.03 67% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.6 .41 20% .26 47% .12 1.14 54% 35% 59% +14 -3 1.25 10% 1.0 .10 16% .32 80% .26
Dec
7		 Middle Tennessee B+ A A C+ A 46% 19% 35% C+ A C- A- C+ A- F F F A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 14% 27% 59% A+ A+ B F D+ F C+ F C-
1.18 69% 45% 35% +7 +1 1.18 24% 1.2 .30 11% .21 38% .08 0.88 38% 40% 18% -16 -3 0.64 26% 1.2 .30 11% .26 75% .19
Dec
13		 Illinois-Chicago A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 5% 56% A A+ A- C- B- D+ A+ D+ A+ F D+ B F F 20% 24% 56% A F F+ C+ D+ F A F C+
1.36 65% 50% 54% +20 +2 1.47 44% 0.9 .40 22% .44 73% .32 1.32 60% 33% 43% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 13% .23 100% .23
Dec
16		 Evansville C D+ F A+ C- 50% 13% 37% A C+ F C- F D+ A+ C- A+ C+ A+ A- F+ B- 24% 19% 57% D+ C+ C- B+ C+ D F F F
1.09 56% 14% 45% +2 +2 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 18% .40 72% .29 1.02 38% 30% 39% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.9 .22 17% .38 83% .32
Dec
19		 UC Irvine A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 9% 43% A+ A+ D+ A B- F+ B+ B+ A- A+ A+ A+ C+ A 25% 27% 48% B+ A A A A F+ B- A+ B+
1.21 48% 75% 55% +12 +2 1.30 30% 1.1 .33 22% .31 76% .24 0.83 38% 21% 32% -11 -2 0.77 23% 0.8 .19 13% .28 59% .17
Dec
29		 Indiana St. C- F+ F A+ C 46% 11% 44% A C+ D+ C+ C- F B- A+ B+ C B+ A+ F D+ 39% 11% 50% B C- F+ B D+ C F A+ D
1.06 46% 17% 44% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 21% .28 82% .23 1.07 52% 17% 44% +3 +1 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 18% .42 50% .21
Jan
1		 Bradley A B F A+ A- 50% 2% 48% A+ A+ A+ B- A F+ A+ C+ A+ C- B+ C+ F F+ 24% 18% 58% C+ D- F A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ B
1.26 64% 0% 43% +8 +3 1.25 43% 1.1 .46 23% .56 73% .41 1.12 50% 33% 45% +7 -1 1.14 41% 0.8 .32 23% .32 65% .20
Jan
4		 Southern Illinois D+ A- A+ F+ A 61% 14% 25% A+ A+ C- D- D F+ A F D+ B- A- F+ D C- 28% 32% 40% A- C F A C A+ B+ A- B+
0.97 67% 67% 27% +7 +3 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 23% .37 50% .19 0.98 50% 50% 35% +2 -2 1.02 38% 0.8 .30 26% .25 62% .16
Jan
7		 Northern Iowa A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 9% 42% A A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ B- F D C- D- A+ B- B 29% 8% 63% C B C C- C- F A- C- B+
1.33 73% 50% 47% +17 +2 1.40 22% 1.4 .30 10% .29 53% .15 1.11 67% 0% 31% -3 +1 0.98 22% 1.1 .24 5% .18 70% .13
Jan
10		 Drake C- D+ F F F 33% 11% 56% A- F A- B+ A F A+ A A+ B B+ A+ F F 19% 13% 67% C F B- A+ A A+ B+ A- A-
1.07 56% 17% 27% -9 +1 0.85 39% 1.1 .41 19% .43 76% .32 1.04 50% 29% 46% +9 0 1.19 23% 0.8 .17 23% .25 64% .16
Jan
13		 Valparaiso B+ A+ C- A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% B A+ F D+ F+ A- F A+ F D- F B- B C- 12% 36% 52% A+ C D- F F B- A- A+ A+
1.20 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 20% 0.8 .16 14% .11 100% .11 1.14 83% 33% 31% -1 -4 0.92 37% 1.6 .58 17% .28 53% .15
Jan
17		 Southern Illinois B- A+ F F D+ 40% 19% 40% C+ C- B B- B A+ A C- A- B A- A+ C A+ 36% 20% 44% D A B C- C+ C+ D F F
1.05 71% 30% 19% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.1 .35 13% .38 70% .27 0.98 50% 20% 32% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.0 .26 17% .35 85% .30
Jan
24		 Illinois St. B+ A+ A A+ A+ 38% 31% 31% C- A+ F A+ C- F+ A- F B- B+ B+ A+ A A+ 28% 19% 53% C+ A+ F D F A- F+ F F
1.15 72% 47% 53% +17 -1 1.33 12% 2.0 .23 20% .38 62% .23 0.99 54% 22% 28% -9 -1 0.83 35% 1.2 .43 20% .36 85% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Valparaiso B+ B C- A+ A+ 33% 14% 53% C+ A+ D A+ A- F A- F+ B- D+ F A F+ F 28% 28% 43% C F+ C+ A+ A+ D C- D- D+
1.14 64% 33% 48% +13 0 1.28 27% 1.4 .38 22% .38 65% .24 1.13 73% 27% 39% +5 -2 1.08 31% 0.6 .19 13% .35 76% .27
Jan
31		 Murray St. A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 24% 33% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ D- A- D F A+ A+ A 35% 20% 46% B- A F F F B F F F
1.46 63% 54% 44% +11 0 1.24 47% 1.5 .69 11% .40 68% .27 1.22 81% 22% 19% -5 0 0.91 47% 1.4 .68 18% .45 85% .38
Feb
3		 Drake A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 34% 14% 53% B+ A+ D- A+ A A+ F+ F F F B+ F F F 31% 20% 49% C- F F F F B+ B- D C+
1.47 80% 38% 48% +19 +1 1.41 24% 1.8 .42 7% .23 53% .12 1.29 50% 50% 48% +10 0 1.22 36% 1.7 .61 17% .28 75% .21
Feb
6		 Illinois-Chicago B- A- F A+ A+ 21% 9% 70% C A+ D F F+ F B- F D B+ C- F A+ C- 39% 27% 34% B C- C+ A+ A+ C- D+ B+ C-
1.07 67% 25% 43% +10 0 1.23 31% 0.8 .23 27% .35 56% .19 0.98 59% 58% 20% -1 -1 0.98 35% 0.5 .18 17% .36 68% .25
Feb
9		 Bradley C+ A+ F D- C- 25% 19% 57% B- C B A+ A+ D A- B- A- D- A A+ F D- 29% 15% 56% D+ D- B- B- B- F+ D D+ D-
1.09 85% 20% 30% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.4 .53 22% .40 75% .30 1.23 47% 11% 48% +5 0 1.12 24% 1.0 .24 10% .37 77% .29
Feb
12		 Northern Iowa A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 8% 55% A- A+ F A+ B- B B A+ A- F C- F D D 41% 16% 43% C D B F C- C- F F F
1.28 65% 100% 45% +16 +2 1.38 13% 2.0 .25 15% .30 83% .25 1.21 62% 50% 36% +5 +1 1.14 18% 1.4 .25 14% .39 96% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.0 29.0 45.3 20.7 99.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.3 4.8 29.0 45.3 20.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 20.7    20.7
16-4 100.0% 45.3    45.3
15-5 100.0% 29.0    25.1 3.9
14-6 83.8% 4.0    1.2 2.3 0.5 0.0
13-7 32.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 99.1% 99.1 92.2 6.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 20.7% 36.0% 33.9% 2.1% 11.2 0.0 0.3 5.6 1.6 13.2 3.2%
16-4 45.3% 31.0% 30.4% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 7.2 6.8 0.0 31.2 0.8%
15-5 29.0% 27.0% 26.9% 0.2% 11.7 2.7 5.0 0.1 21.2 0.2%
14-6 4.8% 24.9% 24.8% 0.1% 11.8 0.2 0.9 0.1 3.6 0.1%
13-7 0.3% 25.0% 25.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 30.6% 29.8% 0.7% 11.5 69.4 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.0% 100.0% 11.2 0.4 3.6 73.3 22.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.3% 3.9% 11.0 3.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.4% 3.7% 11.1 3.5 0.2
Lose Out 0.1%