Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.4 #276
Expected Predictive Rating -8.8 #303
Pace 66.5 #242
Improvement +2.4 #84

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #257 C- F+ B- C- C
Defense #278 C- D- D D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #339 1.12 #225 -4.8 #333
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #219 0.82 #81 -0.3 #193
Three Pointers 51% #20 0.95 #266 +3.2 #71
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #229 -1.9 #229
Freethrows 0.28 #270 75% #100 0.21 #231
Second Chance 19.7% #363 1.02 #190 0.20 #359
Turnovers 15.4% #88
Total Offense -3.1 #257

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #217 1.18 #218 +0.1 #170
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #229 0.74 #143 +0.8 #124
Three Pointers 44% #93 1.07 #258 -2.7 #297
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #230 -1.7 #232
Freethrows 0.34 #297 73% #235 0.25 #297
Second Chance 32.9% #282 1.17 #340 0.39 #330
Turnovers 14.5% #319
Total Defense -3.3 #278

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #220 0.3% #194
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.4% #231 2.9% #233
Possession Length 17.4 #187 17.9 #280
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #240 0.19 #243
Improvement -0.8 #230 +3.2 #36

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 3.0% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 0.9% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 16.0% 34.4% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.3% 1.9%
First Four1.7% 2.4% 1.3%
First Round1.3% 1.9% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 34.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 52 - 9
Quad 49 - 1011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 42 @St. Mary's L 66 - 87 3% -12  0 - 1 -6 +4 B D- F+ -11 F A A-
 Sat, Nov 8 129 @UNLV L 69 - 101 15% -11  0 - 2 -27 +0 B- F C+ -28 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 224 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73 - 91 28% -13  0 - 3 -18 -0 D F B -18 D F F
 Wed, Nov 19 359 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 66 70% +8  1 - 3 +0 -2 D- C- C +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Nov 22 328 North Alabama W 71 - 57 75% +6  2 - 3 +1 +2 C C+ F +1 D+ C+ B-
 Sun, Nov 30 242 Tennessee St. L 64 - 70 54% -8  2 - 4 -14 -9 F D A+ -5 B F+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 237 Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 74 53% +1  2 - 5 -11 -1 B- D+ C+ -11 D F C
 Sat, Dec 13 28 Auburn L 78 - 92 3% -7  2 - 6 +2 +10 C+ D A+ -9 D- F A
 Wed, Dec 17 303 @Bellarmine L 64 - 79 45% +1  2 - 7 -20 -15 F F A+ -6 C- C C+
 Sun, Dec 21 306 @Alabama A&M W 73 - 66 46% +4  3 - 7 +2 +6 C+ D+ A -3 C+ D F
 Thu, Jan 1 312 @UNC Greensboro L 72 - 77 48% -1  3 - 8 0 - 1 -11 -3 B- F C- -8 F+ F+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 356 @VMI L 71 - 79 68% -8  3 - 9 0 - 2 -19 -8 F F+ C -11 F C- C-
 Wed, Jan 7 164 Furman L 67 - 78 38% -5  3 - 10 0 - 3 -14 -6 C F D -8 C+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 10 227 Samford W 88 - 79 51% +14  4 - 10 1 - 3 +2 +6 C F A+ -4 D- B+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 201 @Wofford W 76 - 67 25% -2  5 - 10 2 - 3 +9 +2 A- F C+ +7 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 277 @Western Carolina W 90 - 82 39% -3  6 - 10 3 - 3 +5 +20 A+ C A- -15 F+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 132 East Tennessee St. L 66 - 67 31% -2  6 - 11 3 - 4 -2 -6 C F D+ +3 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 227 @Samford L 64 - 75 29% -1  6 - 12 3 - 5 -12 -3 D+ D- B -10 C C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 201 Wofford L 55 - 81 47% -13  6 - 13 3 - 6 -32 -20 F F C+ -13 D+ D F
 Sun, Feb 1 164 @Furman L 70 - 75 19% -12  6 - 14 3 - 7 -2 +3 D+ B D+ -6 C- F D+
 Thu, Feb 5 149 Mercer L 76 - 80 35%
 Sat, Feb 7 346 The Citadel W 74 - 66 78%
 Wed, Feb 11 132 @East Tennessee St. L 66 - 77 14%
 Sat, Feb 14 277 Western Carolina W 79 - 76 62%
 Thu, Feb 19 149 @Mercer L 73 - 83 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 346 @The Citadel W 71 - 69 58%
 Thu, Feb 26 312 UNC Greensboro W 78 - 72 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 356 VMI W 79 - 68 85%
Totals 10 - 18 7 - 11 -6 -3 C- F+ B- -3 C- D- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.2 2.1 4th
5th 0.3 6.3 8.0 1.7 0.0 16.2 5th
6th 0.0 5.9 12.9 3.6 0.1 22.5 6th
7th 0.0 3.2 16.2 5.8 0.3 25.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 10.7 5.8 0.2 18.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 6.9 5.8 0.5 15.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 10th
Total 0.1 2.1 8.2 19.8 28.6 25.2 12.5 3.2 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.3% 10.3% 10.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 3.2% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.1
9-9 12.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5 12.0
8-10 25.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 24.6
7-11 28.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.5 28.1
6-12 19.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 19.6
5-13 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.2
4-14 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 16.0 98.0 0.0%