Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#235
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#283
Pace65.5#285
Improvement+2.6#42

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#183
First Shot+1.6#129
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#320
Layup/Dunks-3.9#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#35
Freethrows-0.1#192
Improvement-0.4#204

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#298
First Shot-2.3#249
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#297
Layups/Dunks+1.6#119
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#300
Freethrows-1.1#261
Improvement+3.0#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 8.6% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 28.8% 39.9% 18.1%
.500 or above in Conference 62.4% 75.4% 49.8%
Conference Champion 6.2% 9.5% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.1% 5.1%
First Four2.4% 2.4% 2.3%
First Round5.7% 7.5% 3.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Away) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 411 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 44 @St. Mary's L 66-87 5%     0 - 1 -6.3 +4.6 -11.6
  Sat, Nov 8 133 @UNLV L 69-101 19%     0 - 2 -27.3 +0.2 -28.4
  Sat, Nov 15 186 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73-91 29%     0 - 3 -16.8 -0.3 -16.7
  Wed, Nov 19 358 @South Carolina St. W 78-66 76%     1 - 3 +0.1 -2.7 +2.4
  Sat, Nov 22 244 North Alabama W 71-57 63%     2 - 3 +6.2 +6.2 +2.2
  Sun, Nov 30 237 Tennessee St. L 64-70 62%     2 - 4 -13.5 -5.8 -8.1
  Sat, Dec 6 215 Southeast Missouri St. L 70-74 58%     2 - 5 -10.5 -1.8 -8.9
  Sat, Dec 13 34 Auburn L 78-92 6%     2 - 6 -0.6 +9.1 -9.7
  Wed, Dec 17 267 @Bellarmine L 64-79 44%     2 - 7 -17.8 -11.7 -6.6
  Sun, Dec 21 293 @Alabama A&M W 73-66 49%     3 - 7 +2.9 +6.8 -3.2
  Thu, Jan 1 294 @UNC Greensboro L 73-74 49%    
  Sat, Jan 3 332 @VMI W 76-73 61%    
  Wed, Jan 7 148 Furman L 72-74 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 227 Samford W 76-73 60%    
  Wed, Jan 14 220 @Wofford L 71-75 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 299 @Western Carolina W 75-74 51%    
  Wed, Jan 21 141 East Tennessee St. L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 227 @Samford L 73-76 38%    
  Thu, Jan 29 220 Wofford W 74-72 59%    
  Sun, Feb 1 148 @Furman L 69-77 23%    
  Thu, Feb 5 174 Mercer L 76-77 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 355 The Citadel W 77-65 87%    
  Wed, Feb 11 141 @East Tennessee St. L 68-77 21%    
  Sat, Feb 14 299 Western Carolina W 78-72 71%    
  Thu, Feb 19 174 @Mercer L 74-80 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 355 @The Citadel W 74-68 71%    
  Thu, Feb 26 294 UNC Greensboro W 76-70 69%    
  Sat, Feb 28 332 VMI W 79-70 79%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 5.3 4.4 1.2 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.5 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.9 4.9 1.0 0.0 15.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.1 4.6 0.9 0.0 14.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.3 7.1 9.8 13.0 14.5 14.3 12.4 9.3 6.1 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 98.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
15-3 85.8% 1.4    1.0 0.4 0.0
14-4 57.8% 2.0    1.1 0.8 0.2
13-5 25.6% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 3.2 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.5% 32.4% 32.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.7% 24.2% 24.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.3
14-4 3.5% 20.6% 20.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.8
13-5 6.1% 16.1% 16.1% 15.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 5.1
12-6 9.3% 11.7% 11.7% 15.4 0.0 0.6 0.5 8.3
11-7 12.4% 8.6% 8.6% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 11.4
10-8 14.3% 5.8% 5.8% 15.9 0.0 0.8 13.4
9-9 14.5% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.7 13.8
8-10 13.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 12.6
7-11 9.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 9.6
6-12 7.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.1
5-13 4.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.2
4-14 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 3.9 93.3 0.0%