Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#137
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#121
Pace66.5#234
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#100
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#204
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.5% 35.7% 23.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 12.3 13.3
.500 or above 80.1% 94.8% 78.3%
.500 or above in Conference 86.0% 94.7% 85.0%
Conference Champion 32.8% 49.0% 30.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 0.9%
First Round24.4% 35.7% 23.1%
Second Round2.7% 5.7% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 10.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 49   @ St. Mary's L 58-71 11%    
  Nov 08, 2025 96   @ UNLV L 67-74 26%    
  Nov 15, 2025 177   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 69-70 48%    
  Nov 19, 2025 324   @ South Carolina St. W 77-69 76%    
  Nov 22, 2025 197   North Alabama W 75-68 71%    
  Nov 30, 2025 251   Tennessee St. W 79-70 79%    
  Dec 06, 2025 238   Southeast Missouri St. W 76-68 78%    
  Dec 13, 2025 35   Auburn L 68-80 15%    
  Dec 17, 2025 328   @ Bellarmine W 78-70 76%    
  Dec 21, 2025 313   @ Alabama A&M W 79-72 72%    
  Jan 01, 2026 229   @ UNC Greensboro W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 03, 2026 284   @ VMI W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 07, 2026 165   Furman W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 10, 2026 182   Samford W 81-75 69%    
  Jan 14, 2026 231   @ Wofford W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 17, 2026 270   @ Western Carolina W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 21, 2026 148   East Tennessee St. W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 24, 2026 182   @ Samford L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 29, 2026 231   Wofford W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 01, 2026 165   @ Furman L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 05, 2026 242   Mercer W 79-70 76%    
  Feb 07, 2026 345   The Citadel W 77-61 90%    
  Feb 11, 2026 148   @ East Tennessee St. L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 14, 2026 270   Western Carolina W 79-69 80%    
  Feb 19, 2026 242   @ Mercer W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 21, 2026 345   @ The Citadel W 74-64 78%    
  Feb 26, 2026 229   UNC Greensboro W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 28, 2026 284   VMI W 78-67 82%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 7.0 8.3 7.0 4.1 1.5 32.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.9 6.5 4.1 1.7 0.2 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.8 4.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.3 3.7 1.0 0.1 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.5 2.7 0.6 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.3 7.5 9.4 10.6 11.9 12.4 11.5 10.0 7.3 4.1 1.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 100.0% 4.1    4.0 0.0
16-2 97.1% 7.0    6.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 83.0% 8.3    6.3 1.8 0.1
14-4 61.2% 7.0    3.9 2.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 29.2% 3.6    1.2 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 9.0% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.8% 32.8 23.6 7.1 1.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 73.7% 72.7% 1.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 3.6%
17-1 4.1% 59.2% 58.4% 0.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 1.7 2.1%
16-2 7.3% 50.4% 50.3% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.6 0.1%
15-3 10.0% 41.9% 41.9% 12.8 0.2 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.8
14-4 11.5% 36.5% 36.5% 13.3 0.0 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.3
13-5 12.4% 26.2% 26.2% 13.8 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 9.2
12-6 11.9% 18.3% 18.3% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 9.7
11-7 10.6% 14.3% 14.3% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 9.1
10-8 9.4% 10.9% 10.9% 16.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 8.4
9-9 7.5% 6.5% 6.5% 18.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 7.0
8-10 5.3% 5.0% 5.0% 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.0
7-11 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 18.4 0.0 0.1 3.6
6-12 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.5% 24.4% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 5.8 6.8 5.4 3.0 1.6 75.5 0.1%