Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 #262
Expected Predictive Rating -10.2 #320
Pace 66.3 #265
Improvement -0.5 #206

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #208 C- C- F B D+
Defense #305 D D+ F C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #346 1.14 #205 -5.2 #326
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #185 0.83 #90 +0.6 #146
Three Pointers 50% #33 0.92 #274 +2.3 #108
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #237 -2.2 #238
Freethrows 15.9 #262 75% #119 11.9 #227
Second Chance 18.5% #364 1.17 #52 0.22 #349
Turnovers 15.1% #86
Total Offense -1.8 #208

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #299 1.32 #335 -0.1 #185
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #204 0.74 #162 +0.4 #162
Three Pointers 46% #51 1.07 #261 -4.1 #322
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #292 -3.8 #293
Freethrows 19.4 #286 72% #173 14.1 #281
Second Chance 34.5% #309 1.21 #332 0.42 #342
Turnovers 15.8% #232
Total Defense -4.1 #305

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #257 -0.4% #129
Shot Type Make % Effect -3.3% #225 7.9% #311
Possession Length 17.8 #226 18.0 #285
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #283 0.18 #191
Improvement -2.6 #330 +2.1 #59

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.6% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 8.0% 14.2% 3.9%
.500 or above in Conference 32.8% 47.7% 22.9%
Conference Champion 1.2% 2.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 3.3% 9.0%
First Four2.4% 2.6% 2.2%
First Round2.8% 3.7% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 72 - 10
Quad 410 - 911 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 42 @St. Mary's L 66-87 4%     -11.9   0 - 1 -5.6 +3.8 -10.3
  Sat, Nov 8 125 @UNLV L 69-101 15%     -10.7   0 - 2 -26.6 +1.2 -28.8
  Sat, Nov 15 172 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73-91 23%     -13.0   0 - 3 -16.0 -0.2 -16.0
  Wed, Nov 19 359 @South Carolina St. W 78-66 72%     7.9   1 - 3 +0.0 -1.4 +1.0
  Sat, Nov 22 288 North Alabama W 71-57 66%     5.6   2 - 3 +3.8 +6.2 -0.2
  Sun, Nov 30 229 Tennessee St. L 64-70 54%     -7.6   2 - 4 -12.8 -6.4 -6.9
  Sat, Dec 6 216 Southeast Missouri St. L 70-74 52%     0.6   2 - 5 -10.3 -0.5 -10.0
  Sat, Dec 13 29 Auburn L 78-92 4%     -6.8   2 - 6 +0.4 +9.1 -8.7
  Wed, Dec 17 291 @Bellarmine L 64-79 44%     1.3   2 - 7 -19.2 -13.1 -6.6
  Sun, Dec 21 307 @Alabama A&M W 73-66 47%     4.3   3 - 7 +1.8 +4.7 -2.3
  Thu, Jan 1 279 @UNC Greensboro L 72-77 41%     -1.2   3 - 8 0 - 1 -8.6 -1.1 -7.7
  Sat, Jan 3 335 @VMI L 71-79 57%     -8.2   3 - 9 0 - 2 -15.8 -6.5 -9.4
  Wed, Jan 7 156 Furman L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 227 Samford W 75-74 53%    
  Wed, Jan 14 221 @Wofford L 71-76 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 285 @Western Carolina L 74-76 44%    
  Wed, Jan 21 131 East Tennessee St. L 70-75 33%    
  Sat, Jan 24 227 @Samford L 72-77 32%    
  Thu, Jan 29 221 Wofford W 74-73 52%    
  Sun, Feb 1 156 @Furman L 68-77 21%    
  Thu, Feb 5 173 Mercer L 75-77 44%    
  Sat, Feb 7 358 The Citadel W 78-66 86%    
  Wed, Feb 11 131 @East Tennessee St. L 67-78 16%    
  Sat, Feb 14 285 Western Carolina W 77-73 64%    
  Thu, Feb 19 173 @Mercer L 72-80 24%    
  Sat, Feb 21 358 @The Citadel W 75-69 69%    
  Thu, Feb 26 279 UNC Greensboro W 76-72 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 335 VMI W 79-71 76%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 2.7 0.9 0.1 5.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 4.2 1.6 0.1 7.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 6.0 3.0 0.2 11.4 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 7.0 4.7 0.5 0.0 15.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.7 7.9 5.9 0.8 0.0 18.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 5.0 8.2 5.4 1.0 0.0 21.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.6 4.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 5.9 10.4 14.3 16.6 16.1 13.4 9.5 5.6 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 94.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 74.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 43.5% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 10.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 20.0% 20.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3
13-5 1.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
12-6 2.8% 14.2% 14.2% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.4
11-7 5.6% 8.9% 8.9% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.1
10-8 9.5% 6.2% 6.2% 15.9 0.1 0.5 8.9
9-9 13.4% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8 12.6
8-10 16.1% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.5 15.7
7-11 16.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 16.2
6-12 14.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 14.1
5-13 10.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.3
4-14 5.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.9
3-15 2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.9
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.0 96.3 0.0%