Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -7.9 295
Results Rating -9.4 311
Consistency 0.16 202
Pace 67.3 213
Improvement +2.7 89

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 231 C D- B- D+ C-
Defense D 322 C- D F+ D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 342 C 58% 164 -4.3 324
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 225 B 43% 57 +0.8 132
Three Pointers 49% 31 C- 32% 246 +3.0 82
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 251 C -0.1 167
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 190
Second Chance F 20.6% 360 B- 1.10 83 D- 0.23 345
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.8% 113
Other Turnovers B- 6.5% 95
Turnovers B- 15.3% 95
Freethrows D 0.26 311 B 76% 56 D+ 0.20 257
Total Offense C- -2.3 231

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 182 C 11.0% 181
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 273 B+ 2.3% 17
Three Pointers B- 88% 98 C 1.0% 212
Total C+ 57% 146 B 4.3% 44


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 198 C 59% 196 -0.1 174
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 284 B- 36% 100 -1.6 59
Three Pointers 45% 68 D+ 36% 274 +3.2 316
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 243 C- +1.1 227
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 230
Second Chance D+ 32.2% 267 D- 1.15 335 D 0.37 315
Turnovers from Steals D- 7.2% 330
Other Turnovers D- 5.9% 342
Turnovers F+ 13.1% 352
Freethrows D 0.35 303 C 72% 174 D 0.25 298
Total Defense D -5.6 322

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 165 D+ 9.0% 247
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 221 D- 1.5% 345
Three Pointers C- 86% 245 C- 0.7% 205
Total C- 58% 252 D 4.0% 305

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 155 17.6 239
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 242 0.20 292
Consistency 0.14 324 0.12 176
Improvement +3.7 32 -1.1 248

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 295 295 295
Results Rating Rank 312 311 311
Conference Record 7 - 11 7 - 11 7 - 11
Conference Finish 8 8 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 48 - 1210 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 30 @St. Mary's L 66 - 87 2% -12  1% 0 - 1 C- -3 C+ +3 B+ D- F D- -7 F A+ A
 Sat, Nov 8 105 @UNLV L 69 - 101 8% -11  3% 0 - 2 F -24 D+ -3 B- F C F -23 F+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 255 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73 - 91 29% -13  1% 0 - 3 F -20 C- -2 D F B F -18 F+ F F
 Wed, Nov 19 356 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 66 68% +8  92% 1 - 3 C -1 D -5 F+ C+ C+ B +4 A+ F F
 Sat, Nov 22 343 North Alabama W 71 - 57 78% +6  69% 2 - 3 C- -2 C- -1 C- B F C+ +1 D+ C B-
 Sun, Nov 30 183 Tennessee St. L 64 - 70 36% -8  0% 2 - 4 D -10 F+ -10 F D+ A+ C -1 A- F+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 231 Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 74 48% +1  53% 2 - 5 D -11 C- -2 B+ C- D+ F+ -10 D- F C
 Sat, Dec 13 39 Auburn L 78 - 92 3% -7  0% 2 - 6 C -0 B- +5 C+ D A+ D -6 F+ F A
 Wed, Dec 17 282 @Bellarmine L 64 - 79 36% +1  61% 2 - 7 F -19 F -20 F F A C -0 C B- B-
 Sun, Dec 21 311 @Alabama A&M W 73 - 66 44% +4  78% 3 - 7 C +1 C +1 C+ D- B+ C+ +1 B- D F+
 Thu, Jan 1 297 @UNC Greensboro L 72 - 77 39% -1  35% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D -10 D -6 B- F C D+ -5 D- F B
 Sat, Jan 3 359 @VMI L 71 - 79 72% -8  0% 3 - 9 0 - 2 F -22 F -13 F F+ D+ F+ -9 F D+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 182 Furman L 67 - 78 36% -5  29% 3 - 10 0 - 3 F+ -15 F+ -9 C- F+ D- D- -7 C F D-
 Sat, Jan 10 207 Samford W 88 - 79 40% +14  98% 4 - 10 1 - 3 C+ +4 B- +4 C F+ A+ C -1 D A- D-
 Wed, Jan 14 243 @Wofford W 76 - 67 28% -2  26% 5 - 10 2 - 3 B- +7 C- -2 B+ F C+ A +9 B A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 225 @Western Carolina W 90 - 82 25% -3  33% 6 - 10 3 - 3 B- +7 A+ +19 A+ C+ A F -11 F B- F
 Wed, Jan 21 165 East Tennessee St. L 66 - 67 32% -2  19% 6 - 11 3 - 4 C- -4 F+ -8 C+ F D B +4 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 207 @Samford L 64 - 75 21% -1  37% 6 - 12 3 - 5 D -10 D -5 C- D- B D- -7 B- C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 243 Wofford L 55 - 81 50% -13  10% 6 - 13 3 - 6 F -34 F -24 F F C F -12 D+ D- F
 Sun, Feb 1 182 @Furman L 70 - 75 18% -12  3% 6 - 14 3 - 7 C- -3 C +0 D- A- D D+ -4 C- F C-
 Thu, Feb 5 189 Mercer W 79 - 75 38% -1  32% 7 - 14 4 - 7 C -1 D+ -3 A+ F F B- +3 A+ C D
 Sat, Feb 7 341 The Citadel L 71 - 78 77% -2  11% 7 - 15 4 - 8 F -23 F -11 F C D- F -11 F F F
 Wed, Feb 11 165 @East Tennessee St. L 61 - 73 15% -4  6% 7 - 16 4 - 9 D -9 F+ -10 F D+ A- C -0 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 225 Western Carolina L 76 - 81 45% -10  1% 7 - 17 4 - 10 D- -12 D+ -3 C B A- F+ -8 C+ F D
 Thu, Feb 19 189 @Mercer W 94 - 90 19% +2  67% 8 - 17 5 - 10 B- +5 A+ +24 A+ B A F -19 F D+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 341 @The Citadel W 93 - 72 56% +18  95% 9 - 17 6 - 10 B +11 B+ +9 A+ C- F B- +2 B+ D+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 297 UNC Greensboro L 80 - 85 62% -7  0% 9 - 18 6 - 11 F+ -16 F -11 D- F+ C+ D+ -5 D+ B D-
 Sat, Feb 28 359 VMI W 86 - 79 87% +6  93% 10 - 18 7 - 11 D- -13 B+ +8 C C- A+ F -20 F+ F F
 Fri, Mar 6 341 The Citadel L 85 - 88 67% -1  46% 10 - 19 F+ -16 A- +11 B+ D A- F -27 F D+ F
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -8 C- -2 C C C- D -6 C- B D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C B C- C 31% 34% 49% C- C F B- D- B- D B D+ D C B- D+ C- 38% 17% 45% C- C- D+ D- D F+ D C D
1.05 58% 43% 32% 0 0 1.01 21% 1.1 .23 15% .26 76% .20 1.17 59% 36% 36% +1 0 1.05 32% 1.2 .37 13% .35 72% .19
Nov
7		 St. Mary's C+ A- B+ D+ A- 29% 29% 42% D- B+ D+ F D- F A+ A A+ D- C F F F 40% 23% 37% B- F A+ B+ A+ A F F F
0.98 64% 43% 30% +1 -2 1.00 19% 0.7 .13 19% .35 79% .28 1.29 59% 60% 50% +14 0 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 21% .54 93% .51
Nov
8		 UNLV D+ A+ A+ F+ B 29% 21% 50% D+ B- F B F C F A D- F F D+ C F 41% 18% 41% C- F+ F F F F F D F
1.02 71% 50% 29% +3 -1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 18% .27 80% .21 1.49 80% 44% 35% +11 0 1.24 52% 1.4 .71 12% .62 73% .45
Nov
15		 Florida Gulf Coast C- D D- D F+ 42% 6% 52% A- D F F F B A+ D A+ F F F C+ F 34% 28% 38% C F+ F F F F C+ F D
1.06 52% 33% 31% -5 +2 0.96 21% 0.7 .15 14% .51 70% .35 1.32 70% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.4 .55 12% .25 87% .21
Nov
19		 South Carolina St. D B+ F+ F+ D- 30% 21% 49% F F+ D- A+ C+ C+ A+ D+ A+ B F A+ A+ A+ 16% 37% 47% A A+ C- F F F F B+ F
1.08 69% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.98 31% 1.5 .46 17% .58 71% .41 0.91 75% 5% 25% -16 -4 0.63 30% 2.0 .60 14% .54 62% .34
Nov
22		 North Alabama C- C+ A+ D+ C 27% 15% 58% D C- A- D+ B F C+ D C- C+ D A C+ D 36% 19% 45% B- D+ C C+ C B- D A+ B-
1.18 62% 57% 32% +2 0 1.06 42% 1.1 .45 20% .29 71% .21 0.94 60% 25% 32% -3 0 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 20% .35 53% .19
Nov
30		 Tennessee St. F+ F+ F F F 35% 4% 62% B- F F A+ D+ A+ F A+ F+ C A A B- A 43% 26% 30% D- A- A- F F+ F C+ F D-
0.98 50% 0% 28% -10 +2 0.87 17% 1.7 .28 11% .24 86% .21 1.07 48% 29% 31% -8 0 0.85 26% 1.6 .41 12% .26 93% .24
Dec
6		 Southeast Missouri St. C- C- A A+ B+ 48% 22% 30% C+ B+ F A+ C- D+ F C+ F F+ D+ B+ F+ F+ 35% 19% 46% C+ D- D- F F C A+ A+ A+
1.06 55% 50% 43% +5 +1 1.13 16% 1.8 .28 18% .31 76% .24 1.12 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 17% .16 56% .09
Dec
13		 Auburn B- F A+ B B- 33% 31% 35% D- C+ F A+ D A+ B- A+ A D F F F+ F 16% 26% 58% A+ F+ F D+ F A F D+ F
1.11 44% 53% 37% +2 -2 1.02 13% 1.8 .22 9% .31 85% .27 1.31 86% 55% 40% +14 -2 1.26 47% 1.1 .53 19% .65 78% .51
Dec
17		 Bellarmine F A+ B F F 7% 16% 77% F+ F F F F A F+ A- D C C- A+ F C- 39% 12% 49% C+ C D A+ B- B- F F F
0.94 100% 44% 23% -9 -2 0.81 24% 0.9 .22 10% .25 80% .20 1.17 63% 17% 42% +5 +1 1.14 24% 0.9 .21 18% .39 86% .34
Dec
21		 Alabama A&M C D+ C A C+ 33% 17% 50% C- C+ F A+ D- B+ D- D D- C+ C+ B+ A B+ 43% 20% 37% F+ B- B- F D F+ F+ C- F+
1.14 56% 38% 42% +5 0 1.13 16% 1.6 .25 13% .29 69% .20 1.04 52% 30% 28% -8 0 0.88 23% 1.3 .31 13% .41 74% .30
Jan
1		 UNC Greensboro D A+ A+ D+ B- 25% 15% 60% C B- F F F C F F F D+ C- F B+ D 40% 19% 40% D- D- F B F B F B- F
1.07 79% 63% 33% +8 0 1.18 16% 0.4 .06 13% .16 56% .09 1.15 59% 63% 29% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.9 .38 18% .56 68% .38
Jan
3		 VMI F C F F F 33% 27% 41% D F F A+ F+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F D C- F 24% 11% 65% C+ F F B D+ C+ F C- F
1.02 63% 31% 25% -6 -1 0.88 21% 1.4 .29 17% .42 83% .35 1.14 73% 40% 33% +3 0 1.09 33% 0.8 .28 17% .50 72% .36
Jan
7		 Furman F+ F F A C- 27% 18% 55% C- C- D F F+ D- F B+ F D- B A+ F C+ 45% 8% 47% D- C C- F F D- D- F+ F+
0.98 40% 30% 40% -1 0 0.98 26% 0.7 .18 17% .14 75% .11 1.14 55% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 31% 1.4 .44 16% .35 75% .26
Jan
10		 Samford B- D+ C+ B+ C- 50% 20% 30% A C F A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C F A+ B- D+ 42% 17% 42% D- D A+ D- A- D- F A F
1.20 53% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 9% 2.0 .18 4% .34 92% .31 1.08 77% 11% 32% +2 +1 1.08 14% 1.2 .17 11% .55 61% .34
Jan
14		 Wofford C- C A+ A A- 38% 14% 48% C- B+ F F F C+ C+ D C A A- A+ C- B 35% 17% 48% B- B A- A+ A+ F F A- D
1.10 58% 57% 42% +8 +1 1.20 14% 0.8 .10 15% .32 74% .24 0.97 47% 22% 35% -6 0 0.91 23% 0.3 .08 10% .40 64% .26
Jan
17		 Western Carolina A+ B- F A+ A+ 32% 8% 60% B A+ D- A+ C+ A C+ A+ A+ F A F F F 40% 23% 37% C+ F D- A B- F D- A+ C-
1.38 63% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 21% 1.4 .29 11% .33 95% .31 1.26 43% 67% 42% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.8 .32 9% .36 62% .22
Jan
21		 East Tennessee St. F+ D A+ C C 41% 6% 53% B+ C+ F F F D F A+ D B B+ D+ A+ A+ 52% 13% 35% F A+ F F F D+ A+ C+ A+
0.98 55% 67% 35% +1 +2 1.08 19% 0.5 .10 21% .21 91% .19 1.00 52% 43% 17% -12 +2 0.83 34% 1.4 .47 15% .19 73% .14
Jan
24		 Samford D F B C+ D+ 24% 20% 56% C+ C- F A+ D- B A F B D- A F B+ B+ 40% 4% 56% F B- C C- C- F F B+ F
1.03 45% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 15% 1.4 .21 11% .38 67% .25 1.21 47% 100% 30% -5 +2 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 6% .62 64% .40
Jan
29		 Wofford F D C- F F 35% 16% 49% D+ F D- F F C B- F D- F C+ A- D- C- 48% 13% 39% D D+ F A- D- F C- A- C+
0.83 53% 38% 21% -12 0 0.80 24% 0.7 .17 15% .34 58% .20 1.22 54% 29% 38% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.8 .34 9% .33 65% .22
Feb
1		 Furman C F B D- D 25% 22% 53% D D- B+ A- A- D B B+ B+ D+ B F D+ C- 50% 11% 39% D- C- B F F C- F F F
1.06 46% 45% 30% -5 -1 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 17% .29 75% .22 1.14 55% 60% 35% +1 +2 1.09 26% 1.6 .41 18% .39 76% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Mercer D+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 18% 47% C A+ F F F F A+ C- A+ B- A- A+ B A+ 37% 26% 37% C+ A+ F A+ C D F D F
1.09 81% 25% 48% +15 0 1.33 14% 0.7 .10 24% .45 76% .34 1.04 50% 18% 31% -10 -1 0.81 42% 0.8 .32 14% .69 77% .53
Feb
7		 The Citadel F C+ B+ F F 31% 20% 48% D- F D+ A- C D- F A- F F F D+ A F 40% 10% 50% F F A- F F F B F C-
1.04 65% 45% 27% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.2 .35 18% .14 75% .11 1.15 76% 40% 27% +2 +2 1.10 21% 1.8 .39 13% .22 85% .19
Feb
11		 East Tennessee St. F+ F F F+ F 37% 16% 47% C F F A+ D+ A- F A+ D- C A+ A+ B+ A+ 47% 17% 36% D+ A+ B D C+ F F C F
0.92 47% 25% 29% -9 +1 0.84 15% 1.6 .24 15% .21 83% .18 1.10 45% 25% 29% -11 +1 0.83 23% 1.2 .28 8% .57 74% .43
Feb
14		 Western Carolina D+ C A+ D- C 30% 25% 46% D C D- A+ B A- F A+ F F+ A D C C+ 35% 18% 47% C- C+ F D F D F F F
1.10 59% 64% 31% +4 -1 1.09 21% 1.7 .34 12% .10 100% .10 1.18 44% 44% 33% -4 0 0.94 47% 1.1 .53 15% .42 80% .34
Feb
19		 Mercer A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C- A+ C+ B+ B A B A- B+ F D F+ F F 35% 18% 47% D+ F A- F D+ F F A+ D+
1.45 72% 64% 48% +19 0 1.40 36% 1.1 .40 12% .30 82% .25 1.39 65% 44% 52% +16 0 1.35 27% 1.3 .36 9% .46 59% .27
Feb
21		 The Citadel B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 16% 54% D A+ F A+ C- F C+ A B B- B A+ B- A- 22% 11% 67% C B+ F A D+ F F A+ D-
1.29 80% 63% 48% +22 0 1.46 23% 1.4 .32 19% .29 76% .22 1.00 50% 0% 31% -9 0 0.83 38% 0.8 .29 12% .51 44% .22
Feb
26		 UNC Greensboro F D A+ D D- 22% 19% 59% D+ D- F C+ F+ C+ C A- B- D+ B- D+ D+ C- 36% 21% 43% D+ D+ B+ C+ B D- C- F D-
1.04 54% 55% 32% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.1 .22 13% .27 78% .21 1.11 52% 42% 36% 0 0 1.02 22% 1.0 .22 13% .37 80% .30
Feb
28		 VMI B+ A+ C- B+ C+ 25% 26% 49% F+ C F A+ C- A+ F C+ F F C- A+ D+ F+ 30% 4% 66% F+ F+ D+ F F F D- B+ D+
1.36 79% 40% 39% +9 -2 1.18 29% 1.3 .38 3% .13 75% .10 1.25 56% 0% 34% -2 +2 1.02 28% 1.5 .42 2% .34 67% .22
Mar
6		 The Citadel A- B+ A+ A+ A 38% 25% 38% F+ B+ F+ B D A- F A+ F+ F D+ F F F 42% 8% 51% F F C+ F D+ F B D B-
1.34 70% 54% 45% +15 -1 1.30 25% 1.1 .29 11% .18 80% .14 1.39 59% 75% 48% +14 +2 1.34 26% 1.1 .29 9% .23 69% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 100.0 100.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 100.0% 100.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%