Chattanooga
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#200
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#193
Pace67.7#220
Improvement+1.1#118

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#155
First Shot+2.2#115
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#261
Layup/Dunks+2.8#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#65
Freethrows-1.5#267
Improvement+1.5#71

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#257
First Shot-3.9#302
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#88
Layups/Dunks+0.5#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#326
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#252
Freethrows-0.1#203
Improvement-0.4#219
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 8.2% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 57.1% 70.1% 44.7%
.500 or above in Conference 62.5% 68.4% 56.9%
Conference Champion 7.0% 8.8% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.6% 2.9%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round6.6% 8.1% 5.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 48.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 74 - 12
Quad 412 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 106   @ USC L 51-77 20%     0 - 1 -18.9 -15.5 -4.9
  Nov 07, 2024 42   @ St. Mary's L 74-86 8%     0 - 2 +2.3 +15.4 -14.3
  Nov 11, 2024 238   @ Austin Peay L 61-67 47%     0 - 3 -7.2 -5.8 -1.9
  Nov 14, 2024 266   Morehead St. W 76-62 75%     1 - 3 +5.1 -2.2 +7.0
  Nov 17, 2024 295   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 87-82 58%     2 - 3 +1.1 +3.8 -3.4
  Nov 25, 2024 318   Tennessee St. W 85-78 83%     3 - 3 -4.9 -1.0 -4.5
  Nov 27, 2024 176   Bryant W 84-76 58%     4 - 3 +4.2 +11.2 -6.9
  Dec 03, 2024 105   Lipscomb L 62-80 39%     4 - 4 -16.9 -7.4 -10.3
  Dec 12, 2024 243   @ Evansville L 73-74 49%    
  Dec 15, 2024 360   Alabama A&M W 83-67 93%    
  Dec 21, 2024 39   @ Indiana L 68-85 6%    
  Jan 01, 2025 232   @ Mercer L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 325   @ The Citadel W 71-67 66%    
  Jan 09, 2025 160   UNC Greensboro W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 11, 2025 346   VMI W 80-67 89%    
  Jan 15, 2025 142   Wofford W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 18, 2025 119   @ Furman L 68-75 25%    
  Jan 22, 2025 121   Samford L 83-84 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 135   @ East Tennessee St. L 70-76 28%    
  Jan 29, 2025 263   @ Western Carolina W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 232   Mercer W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 05, 2025 142   @ Wofford L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 08, 2025 119   Furman L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 12, 2025 121   @ Samford L 80-87 25%    
  Feb 15, 2025 135   East Tennessee St. L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 263   Western Carolina W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 325   The Citadel W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 27, 2025 160   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-72 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 346   @ VMI W 77-70 74%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.5 4.4 1.2 0.1 11.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.3 5.1 1.4 0.1 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.8 5.6 1.4 0.1 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.0 5.5 1.5 0.1 15.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.3 4.3 1.1 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.1 7.0 10.1 12.9 14.1 13.8 12.1 9.7 6.5 3.6 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.2% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 89.4% 1.5    1.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 61.6% 2.2    1.1 1.0 0.2
13-5 26.7% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.5% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 3.7 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 44.6% 44.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.8% 25.6% 25.6% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-3 1.7% 26.1% 26.1% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-4 3.6% 19.2% 19.2% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 2.9
13-5 6.5% 16.9% 16.9% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 5.4
12-6 9.7% 11.4% 11.4% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 8.6
11-7 12.1% 9.2% 9.2% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 11.0
10-8 13.8% 6.3% 6.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 12.9
9-9 14.1% 3.8% 3.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 13.5
8-10 12.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.1 0.2 12.5
7-11 10.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.9
6-12 7.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.9
5-13 4.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.1
4-14 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.3 1.0 93.2 0.0%