Chattanooga
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#88
Expected Predictive Rating+10.2#55
Pace58.8#353
Improvement+0.2#163

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#61
First Shot+1.1#149
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#21
Layup/Dunks+1.7#118
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#178
Freethrows-0.8#236
Improvement-0.4#219

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#129
First Shot+3.2#81
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#287
Layups/Dunks+1.5#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#53
Freethrows+2.4#52
Improvement+0.6#122
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.0% 37.3% 27.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.1% 6.2% 1.7%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 12.4
.500 or above 98.8% 99.4% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 96.2% 92.6%
Conference Champion 45.3% 48.0% 35.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four2.1% 2.5% 0.9%
First Round33.9% 36.0% 26.9%
Second Round8.7% 9.8% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 2.8% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Away) - 77.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 23 - 23 - 3
Quad 38 - 411 - 7
Quad 412 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 137   @ Loyola Marymount W 75-64 54%     1 - 0 +16.0 +10.3 +6.9
  Nov 14, 2021 255   UNC Asheville W 75-45 90%     2 - 0 +22.2 +8.3 +17.5
  Nov 16, 2021 280   Tennessee Tech W 69-62 92%     3 - 0 -2.4 +3.1 -4.4
  Nov 20, 2021 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 56-54 37%     4 - 0 +11.3 +5.4 +6.3
  Nov 27, 2021 185   College of Charleston L 66-68 82%     4 - 1 -5.9 -7.6 +1.7
  Nov 30, 2021 280   @ Tennessee Tech W 82-65 81%     5 - 1 +13.6 +9.6 +4.4
  Dec 05, 2021 239   @ Lipscomb W 85-64 75%     6 - 1 +19.9 +13.9 +7.2
  Dec 08, 2021 255   @ UNC Asheville W 70-62 77%    
  Dec 15, 2021 57   @ Belmont L 68-73 31%    
  Dec 18, 2021 94   @ Murray St. L 63-66 40%    
  Dec 22, 2021 190   Middle Tennessee W 71-61 82%    
  Dec 30, 2021 131   East Tennessee St. W 67-60 73%    
  Jan 01, 2022 177   @ Mercer W 68-65 63%    
  Jan 05, 2022 124   @ Wofford W 66-65 50%    
  Jan 08, 2022 238   The Citadel W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 12, 2022 296   @ Western Carolina W 76-65 83%    
  Jan 15, 2022 110   Furman W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 20, 2022 174   @ UNC Greensboro W 62-59 62%    
  Jan 22, 2022 227   @ VMI W 71-65 72%    
  Jan 26, 2022 124   Wofford W 69-63 71%    
  Jan 29, 2022 238   @ The Citadel W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 02, 2022 243   @ Samford W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 05, 2022 177   Mercer W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 09, 2022 296   Western Carolina W 79-62 93%    
  Feb 12, 2022 110   @ Furman L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 17, 2022 174   UNC Greensboro W 65-56 79%    
  Feb 19, 2022 227   VMI W 74-62 86%    
  Feb 23, 2022 131   @ East Tennessee St. W 64-63 52%    
  Feb 26, 2022 243   Samford W 79-66 88%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 5.2 10.4 12.0 9.8 5.0 1.5 45.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.8 7.7 5.2 1.6 0.2 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.7 5.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.3 1.0 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.3 7.0 10.2 13.2 14.9 15.9 13.5 10.0 5.0 1.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 100.0% 5.0    4.9 0.0
16-2 98.1% 9.8    9.1 0.6 0.0
15-3 88.4% 12.0    9.6 2.3 0.1
14-4 65.7% 10.4    6.2 3.7 0.6 0.0
13-5 34.7% 5.2    1.9 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 10.5% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.3% 45.3 33.4 9.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 87.4% 63.9% 23.5% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 65.2%
17-1 5.0% 74.3% 55.4% 18.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.3 42.5%
16-2 10.0% 60.1% 48.5% 11.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.0 22.6%
15-3 13.5% 48.1% 43.1% 5.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.3 1.1 0.1 7.0 8.8%
14-4 15.9% 37.8% 36.1% 1.7% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.9 2.6%
13-5 14.9% 31.0% 30.4% 0.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 10.3 0.9%
12-6 13.2% 24.7% 24.6% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 10.0 0.1%
11-7 10.2% 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 8.2 0.0%
10-8 7.0% 13.6% 13.6% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.0
9-9 4.3% 10.9% 10.9% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.8
8-10 2.5% 8.8% 8.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3
7-11 1.2% 5.7% 5.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 35.0% 31.5% 3.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.2 2.2 5.5 12.7 8.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 65.0 5.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.2 5.8 8.3 17.5 27.5 25.0 10.0 3.3 1.7 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 95.5% 7.2 9.1 4.5 18.2 22.7 13.6 18.2 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 83.9% 8.0 6.5 3.2 6.5 16.1 3.2 32.3 12.9 3.2