Chattanooga
Southern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#164
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#210
Pace66.4#234
Improvement-1.1#306

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#79
First Shot+2.5#89
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#118
Layup/Dunks-4.2#335
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.7#1
Freethrows+1.1#98
Improvement-0.8#303

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#271
First Shot-3.3#290
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#161
Layups/Dunks+0.0#182
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#305
Freethrows-0.3#217
Improvement-0.3#236
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 9.6% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 53.0% 68.1% 30.6%
.500 or above in Conference 53.0% 68.1% 30.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four3.2% 2.4% 4.4%
First Round7.8% 8.8% 6.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Away) - 59.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 48 - 514 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 83   @ College of Charleston L 78-85 19%     0 - 1 +2.3 +3.6 -0.8
  Nov 15, 2022 95   @ Mississippi L 58-70 24%     0 - 2 -4.3 -5.3 +0.1
  Nov 23, 2022 194   Lipscomb L 66-72 66%     0 - 3 -10.0 -7.7 -2.4
  Nov 26, 2022 159   Murray St. W 69-66 60%     1 - 3 +0.6 -1.5 +2.4
  Nov 30, 2022 303   @ Tennessee Tech W 81-74 69%     2 - 3 +2.0 +5.4 -3.3
  Dec 03, 2022 192   @ Gardner-Webb W 82-71 45%     3 - 3 +12.5 +10.6 +1.5
  Dec 06, 2022 214   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 88-76 69%     4 - 3 +7.0 +14.1 -7.0
  Dec 15, 2022 121   @ Middle Tennessee W 82-73 31%     5 - 3 +14.4 +18.2 -3.3
  Dec 18, 2022 128   Belmont L 79-83 OT 52%     5 - 4 -4.4 +1.9 -6.3
  Dec 21, 2022 103   @ Georgia L 65-72 26%     5 - 5 +0.0 -0.8 +0.4
  Dec 29, 2022 301   @ The Citadel L 68-76 69%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -13.0 -3.0 -10.6
  Dec 31, 2022 228   @ Mercer W 80-51 52%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +28.6 +11.2 +18.8
  Jan 04, 2023 138   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-73 34%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -7.6 -2.9 -5.1
  Jan 07, 2023 335   VMI W 85-78 89%     7 - 7 2 - 2 -6.2 +6.9 -12.9
  Jan 11, 2023 260   Western Carolina W 95-76 78%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +10.9 +20.5 -8.9
  Jan 14, 2023 145   @ Samford L 74-75 35%     8 - 8 3 - 3 +3.1 +4.8 -1.8
  Jan 18, 2023 87   Furman L 69-77 39%     8 - 9 3 - 4 -5.0 -4.1 -1.0
  Jan 21, 2023 223   East Tennessee St. L 62-78 71%     8 - 10 3 - 5 -21.7 -13.7 -7.6
  Jan 25, 2023 215   Wofford L 80-85 69%     8 - 11 3 - 6 -10.0 +2.6 -12.6
  Jan 28, 2023 223   @ East Tennessee St. W 73-64 52%     9 - 11 4 - 6 +8.8 +8.7 +1.0
  Feb 01, 2023 87   @ Furman L 58-79 21%     9 - 12 4 - 7 -12.5 -11.6 -1.6
  Feb 04, 2023 260   @ Western Carolina W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 08, 2023 301   The Citadel W 79-68 85%    
  Feb 11, 2023 228   Mercer W 73-67 72%    
  Feb 15, 2023 335   @ VMI W 78-70 76%    
  Feb 18, 2023 138   UNC Greensboro W 66-65 56%    
  Feb 22, 2023 145   Samford W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 25, 2023 215   @ Wofford L 72-73 48%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 1.5 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 15.9 16.5 3.7 38.2 4th
5th 0.4 10.1 11.1 1.2 0.0 22.8 5th
6th 0.0 3.4 10.4 1.8 0.0 15.6 6th
7th 0.6 7.1 3.0 0.1 10.7 7th
8th 0.2 2.8 3.9 0.2 7.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.3 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 1.1 5.1 15.0 25.7 29.0 18.7 5.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 5.3% 14.4% 14.4% 14.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.5
10-8 18.7% 12.2% 12.2% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.1 16.4
9-9 29.0% 9.3% 9.3% 15.6 0.0 1.0 1.7 26.3
8-10 25.7% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.0 1.9 23.7
7-11 15.0% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9 14.1
6-12 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.3 4.9
5-13 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.1% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.9 91.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.3% 14.4% 14.2 1.2 8.6 4.6 0.0
Lose Out 0.1% 4.9% 16.0 4.9