Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.5 324
Expected Predictive Rating -11.8 337
Pace 64.5 292
Improvement -3.4 309

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 288 D+ C+ D D+ C-
Defense D- 334 D+ C- D- F+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 176 F+ 49% 352 -3.3 292
2 Pt. Jumpers 46% 82 C+ 39% 134 +1.4 102
Three Pointers 38% 240 C+ 34% 151 -1.2 225
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 234 D+ -2.7 277
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 278
Second Chance C+ 32.1% 131 C+ 1.05 140 C+ 0.34 115
Turnovers D 19.2% 320
Freethrows D+ 0.28 274 D+ 70% 267 D+ 0.19 293
Total Offense D+ -4.4 288

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 276 D 13.2% 306
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 260 B 3.0% 56
Three Pointers C 84% 202 B- 0.6% 107
Total D+ 51% 289 C- 6.1% 229

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 42 C+ 57% 150 +2.8 278
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 290 D+ 40% 263 -0.9 115
Three Pointers 39% 247 F+ 38% 347 +1.5 260
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 320 D+ +2.4 270
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.09 288
Second Chance C 30.3% 168 D+ 1.09 270 C- 0.33 230
Turnovers D- 14.0% 332
Freethrows F+ 0.38 341 C- 73% 218 F+ 0.27 342
Total Defense D- -6.0 334

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 278 D 7.0% 328
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 248 D+ 3.1% 294
Three Pointers C- 85% 211 F+ -0.4% 364
Total D+ 60% 267 D- 3.5% 331

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 281 16.6 63
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 326 0.21 320
Improvement -2.2 #297 -1.2 #259

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 340 325 307
Conference Record 5 - 11 7 - 9 8 - 8
Conference Finish 9 8 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 25% 46% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 8% 1% 17%
First Four6% 7% 5%
First Round3% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Away) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 410 - 1110 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 48 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 103 2% -12  1% 0 - 1 F+ -15 C- -2 D+ C D F -11 C- F D
 Fri, Nov 7 56 @Seton Hall L 61 - 68 2% -3  23% 0 - 2 B- +6 C+ +2 A A- F B- +3 B- C- C+
 Tue, Nov 11 158 @Fordham L 61 - 63 11% +2  56% 0 - 3 C +1 C +1 D- A C- C +0 B C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 232 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 71 OT 18% +1  51% 0 - 4 C- -2 F -11 F C+ F A +9 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 74 @Georgetown L 75 - 92 3% -11  10% 0 - 5 D+ -6 C- -1 C+ C F D+ -4 C- C- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 321 @Manhattan W 103 - 101 OT 38% -8  6% 1 - 5 D+ -5 A- +11 A+ B- D- F -16 F+ F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 107 @Maryland L 63 - 89 6% -9  9% 1 - 6 F -19 F -13 F F F D -5 B C F
 Wed, Dec 17 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 64 71% +6  94% 2 - 6 C- -2 C+ +3 D A A+ D+ -4 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 351 @Chicago St. W 79 - 72 51% +4  93% 3 - 6 1 - 0 C- -4 B- +5 D- B+ A+ F+ -8 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 345 Stonehill L 60 - 69 69% -2  35% 3 - 7 1 - 1 F -25 F+ -8 D- B- F F -18 F C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 355 St. Francis (PA) L 69 - 71 75% +1  49% 3 - 8 1 - 2 F -20 F -11 F C+ D F+ -9 D D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 301 Mercyhurst L 69 - 70 52% +1  57% 3 - 9 1 - 3 D- -12 D -4 C- B- C- D- -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 325 @New Haven L 74 - 80 39% -8  0% 3 - 10 1 - 4 D- -14 A- +10 A A F F -25 F A F+
 Mon, Jan 19 329 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 61 - 68 41% -4  3% 3 - 11 1 - 5 F+ -15 D -6 F C B- F -11 D- F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 296 @Le Moyne L 67 - 69 29% +2  65% 3 - 12 1 - 6 D+ -7 C +0 A- D+ F D- -7 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 292 Central Connecticut St. L 55 - 62 50% -2  29% 3 - 13 1 - 7 F+ -17 F -18 F C- C+ C -0 C B- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 72 OT 64% +1  56% 4 - 13 2 - 7 D -11 D -5 F C+ B D -6 F A+ D
 Thu, Feb 5 296 Le Moyne W 79 - 78 51% +1  46% 5 - 13 3 - 7 D -10 C +1 A- B+ F F -11 F B- C+
 Sat, Feb 7 292 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 84 28% -9  2% 5 - 14 3 - 8 F -21 D- -8 F B- C- F -15 F F D+
 Thu, Feb 12 214 LIU Brooklyn L 57 - 67 33% -1  31% 5 - 15 3 - 9 F+ -16 F -20 F+ F F B +4 B B+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 345 @Stonehill W 68 - 57 47% +4  62% 6 - 15 4 - 9 C +1 C- -2 F A D+ B +4 A+ F C
 Mon, Feb 16 214 @LIU Brooklyn L 65 - 83 16% -7  20% 6 - 16 4 - 10 F -18 C- -2 C+ D- F F -18 F C D-
 Thu, Feb 19 301 @Mercyhurst W 83 - 80 OT 30% +4  70% 7 - 16 5 - 10 C- -2 C+ +2 D+ B F+ D+ -4 D C+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 77 - 76 55%
 Thu, Feb 26 325 New Haven W 67 - 64 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 351 Chicago St. W 75 - 69 72%
Totals 9 - 17 7 - 11 -10 D+ -4 C- D+ C- D- -6 C+ D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ F+ C+ C+ D+ 39% 46% 38% C- D+ C+ C+ C+ D D+ D+ D+ D- C+ D+ F+ D+ 44% 17% 39% D D+ C D+ C- D- F+ C- F+
1.02 49% 39% 34% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.1 .34 19% .28 70% .19 1.17 57% 40% 38% +2 +1 1.09 30% 1.1 .33 14% .38 73% .20
Nov
3		 Virginia Commonwealth C- F C- A+ D+ 48% 21% 31% C+ D+ B- D C D A+ C A F C- A+ C- C 47% 2% 51% F C- F+ F F D F A- D
0.97 36% 36% 44% -6 +1 0.90 33% 0.9 .29 20% .39 71% .28 1.35 62% 0% 36% +2 +3 1.13 41% 1.5 .62 13% .47 68% .32
Nov
7		 Seton Hall C+ F A+ A+ A+ 33% 14% 53% C+ A C+ A+ A- F F F F B- D+ A+ B B 46% 17% 37% D B- F A+ C- C+ F A+ C+
0.95 29% 50% 48% +3 0 1.09 31% 1.2 .38 31% .27 42% .11 1.05 62% 13% 29% -5 +1 0.93 50% 0.8 .38 17% .45 50% .22
Nov
11		 Fordham C F B+ B- D- 27% 29% 45% D+ D- A- A- A C- F F F C A+ F A- A- 48% 20% 33% D- B A+ F C- F F C- F
1.02 23% 43% 36% -6 -2 0.86 34% 1.2 .42 17% .12 50% .06 1.05 36% 67% 27% -8 +1 0.87 26% 1.3 .34 12% .40 71% .28
Nov
16		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F F A+ F F 50% 24% 26% C F C- B+ C+ F B- F+ C A B C A+ A+ 35% 27% 38% B- A+ F F F A+ F A- F
0.92 44% 54% 21% -8 0 0.87 27% 1.2 .32 20% .26 63% .16 0.94 53% 38% 17% -11 -1 0.77 32% 1.3 .42 24% .55 69% .38
Nov
22		 Georgetown C- C- C- B- C+ 37% 21% 42% B- C+ C- C C F B C+ B D+ C- B F+ D+ 42% 25% 33% C C- B+ F C- D+ F F F
1.00 53% 36% 36% -1 0 1.00 28% 1.0 .28 21% .32 74% .24 1.23 61% 36% 39% +3 0 1.07 29% 1.4 .40 12% .43 89% .38
Nov
26		 Manhattan A- B- A A+ A+ 60% 12% 29% A A+ A F+ B- D- A+ C- A+ F A+ F F F+ 37% 23% 40% C F+ F D- F F+ F C+ F
1.33 65% 50% 60% +16 +3 1.40 48% 0.9 .45 18% .42 74% .31 1.30 33% 54% 48% +3 0 1.07 36% 1.2 .43 12% .51 77% .39
Dec
2		 Maryland F F+ B F F 33% 23% 44% D+ F D+ F F F B- A+ A D C A+ A+ A- 50% 12% 38% F B F+ A- C F F C+ F
0.85 47% 42% 26% -8 -1 0.85 24% 0.7 .16 24% .32 83% .27 1.20 58% 17% 25% -8 +2 0.90 42% 0.9 .38 11% .68 71% .49
Dec
17		 Maryland Eastern Shore C+ F+ A- D+ D 34% 19% 47% C- D D- A+ A A+ A+ F B+ D+ F F B F 42% 20% 38% D- F B- A+ A+ C D- A D+
1.20 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 26% 2.0 .51 8% .47 61% .28 0.98 68% 67% 29% +8 0 1.18 27% 0.3 .07 23% .28 64% .18
Jan
2		 Chicago St. B- F C- A+ D- 45% 23% 32% D D- C+ A B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F+ A+ A F B- 47% 26% 26% F C C- A- B- F F F F
1.23 48% 36% 47% +1 0 1.04 36% 1.3 .48 12% .54 73% .39 1.12 36% 29% 50% -7 0 0.89 30% 0.8 .23 8% .46 85% .39
Jan
4		 Stonehill F+ F D+ A D- 52% 24% 24% C+ D- B C+ B- F F A+ D+ F B+ F F F 47% 17% 36% D F C- C C- F F B+ F
0.98 42% 33% 42% -7 +1 0.90 32% 1.1 .35 16% .18 100% .18 1.13 45% 50% 41% 0 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 13% .36 63% .23
Jan
8		 St. Francis (PA) F A+ F F F 35% 26% 39% F+ F A- F C+ D C F D F+ D C- C+ D 40% 17% 44% F+ D C- F+ D D+ F F F
1.06 88% 17% 22% -2 -1 0.96 42% 1.0 .42 20% .37 63% .23 1.09 63% 38% 33% +2 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 17% .35 84% .30
Jan
10		 Mercyhurst D F A+ A+ D+ 53% 8% 39% A- C- D+ A B- C- F+ F F D- C D F F+ 51% 22% 27% F F A+ A+ A+ F F F F
1.07 35% 50% 47% -4 +3 1.00 31% 1.3 .38 19% .30 56% .17 1.08 56% 45% 38% +2 +1 1.08 4% 0.0 .00 8% .35 81% .28
Jan
17		 New Haven A- A- B+ A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% D+ A A+ F A F F D F F F A+ F F 28% 15% 57% C- F C+ A+ A F+ C- F F
1.22 69% 44% 45% +12 0 1.27 50% 0.9 .46 28% .16 71% .11 1.32 69% 14% 58% +20 0 1.41 21% 0.4 .08 15% .27 93% .25
Jan
19		 Fairleigh Dickinson D D+ C- D- F 36% 36% 29% F F F A+ C B- D+ A+ B- F A+ F F F 19% 44% 36% A+ D- F F F A+ F F+ F
1.05 56% 38% 31% -2 -2 0.93 19% 1.4 .27 14% .32 88% .28 1.17 43% 50% 38% +5 -4 1.03 41% 1.1 .45 24% .57 76% .43
Jan
23		 Le Moyne C B- A A A- 45% 16% 39% B- A- C+ F+ D+ F F+ F F D- A A+ B+ A+ 45% 14% 40% D A+ F D- F F F C F
1.10 60% 43% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.9 .30 20% .25 58% .14 1.13 47% 17% 29% -11 +1 0.83 38% 1.1 .44 13% .64 71% .45
Jan
29		 Central Connecticut St. F F A+ F F 40% 7% 53% B- F C- C C- C+ A+ F A C D A+ B+ B+ 43% 13% 43% F C A+ F B- D+ D- B- D
0.92 41% 67% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 12% .41 68% .28 1.03 65% 17% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 75% .24
Jan
31		 Fairleigh Dickinson D F F B F 46% 13% 40% B+ F C+ C+ C+ B B A+ A D B- F F F 52% 9% 39% F F A+ A+ A+ D A A+ A+
1.09 42% 29% 38% -6 +1 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 13% .39 83% .32 1.05 54% 60% 48% +8 +2 1.22 21% 0.4 .09 16% .19 36% .07
Feb
5		 Le Moyne C A B+ B- A 43% 22% 35% C A- D A+ B+ F B+ A- A F F+ F A- F 54% 15% 30% F+ F B C B- C+ D D D-
1.15 70% 40% 38% +7 0 1.17 27% 1.6 .42 20% .37 80% .29 1.14 68% 86% 29% +10 +2 1.26 21% 1.0 .21 20% .37 75% .28
Feb
7		 Central Connecticut St. D- F B+ F F 41% 20% 39% D+ F C- B+ B- C- C- F D F F A F F 36% 43% 21% B F D- F F D+ F C F
1.02 39% 45% 27% -10 0 0.82 31% 1.2 .36 14% .25 71% .18 1.28 87% 28% 56% +13 -3 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 15% .56 77% .43
Feb
12		 LIU Brooklyn F D C+ F F+ 38% 21% 40% D F+ F F F F B- F D- B D- C+ A+ A- 57% 17% 26% F B A+ C- B+ D F B- F
0.81 50% 40% 26% -7 0 0.87 24% 0.8 .19 24% .36 53% .19 0.95 65% 38% 8% -6 +2 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .45 62% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Stonehill C- C- F C+ F+ 36% 36% 28% F F A+ D- A D+ B A B+ B A+ C A A+ 36% 16% 48% C- A+ C- F F C D+ F D-
1.03 56% 17% 36% -8 -2 0.82 45% 0.9 .43 14% .32 78% .25 0.87 28% 38% 25% -17 0 0.68 28% 1.5 .41 21% .25 77% .19
Feb
16		 LIU Brooklyn C- C- F A+ B 41% 32% 27% F C+ A F D- F A+ F B F C F F F 49% 12% 39% F F C+ C- C D- B- D- C+
1.02 56% 29% 50% +3 -1 1.05 44% 0.6 .26 24% .45 59% .27 1.30 58% 67% 53% +14 +2 1.35 33% 1.0 .33 17% .25 69% .17
Feb
19		 Mercyhurst C+ F A+ A C+ 30% 36% 34% F D+ B- B- B F+ A+ A A+ D+ A D F D 33% 33% 33% C D D+ A- C+ F+ F A F
1.11 33% 50% 41% +1 -3 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 21% .51 80% .41 1.07 44% 44% 39% 0 -2 0.98 28% 0.9 .26 12% .41 63% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 2.5 2.5 5th
6th 1.2 13.5 14.7 6th
7th 2.0 20.4 8.4 30.8 7th
8th 1.2 21.1 21.6 0.7 44.5 8th
9th 2.8 3.0 0.1 5.8 9th
10th 1.5 0.0 1.5 10th
Total 5.4 26.1 43.2 25.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 25.3% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 1.9 23.3
7-9 43.2% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 2.8 40.4
6-10 26.1% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 1.4 24.8
5-11 5.4% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.2 5.2
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 16.0 93.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.5%
Lose Out 3.6%