Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#295
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#264
Pace68.7#210
Improvement-0.8#238

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#290
First Shot-6.9#352
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#43
Layup/Dunks-6.6#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#113
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#207
Freethrows-0.7#231
Improvement-0.1#183

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#262
First Shot-0.9#197
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#316
Layups/Dunks+0.2#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#134
Freethrows-3.3#345
Improvement-0.7#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 22.8% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.3 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 53.4% 66.1% 39.6%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 92.7% 80.3%
Conference Champion 30.0% 40.1% 19.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.5% 3.3%
First Four13.7% 14.7% 12.7%
First Round12.4% 15.3% 9.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 52.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 413 - 814 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 47 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74-103 4%     0 - 1 -14.9 +2.1 -14.7
  Fri, Nov 7 54 @Seton Hall L 61-68 4%     0 - 2 +5.5 +2.9 +2.1
  Tue, Nov 11 193 @Fordham L 61-63 22%     0 - 3 -1.1 +0.4 -1.8
  Sun, Nov 16 292 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70-71 OT 38%     0 - 4 -5.1 -11.2 +6.2
  Sat, Nov 22 99 @Georgetown L 75-92 8%     0 - 5 -8.6 +0.7 -8.3
  Wed, Nov 26 313 @Manhattan W 103-101 OT 45%     1 - 5 -3.8 +14.2 -18.2
  Tue, Dec 2 94 @Maryland L 63-89 8%     1 - 6 -17.1 -8.8 -6.9
  Wed, Dec 17 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-64 77%     2 - 6 -1.0 +5.1 -5.0
  Fri, Jan 2 336 @Chicago St. W 74-73 52%    
  Sun, Jan 4 338 Stonehill W 71-64 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 361 St. Francis (PA) W 78-67 85%    
  Sat, Jan 10 318 Mercyhurst W 70-65 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 340 @New Haven W 67-66 55%    
  Mon, Jan 19 357 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 76-72 66%    
  Fri, Jan 23 312 @Le Moyne L 76-77 46%    
  Sun, Jan 25 206 @LIU Brooklyn L 72-79 25%    
  Thu, Jan 29 278 Central Connecticut St. W 70-68 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 357 Fairleigh Dickinson W 79-69 83%    
  Thu, Feb 5 312 Le Moyne W 79-74 66%    
  Sat, Feb 7 278 @Central Connecticut St. L 67-71 37%    
  Thu, Feb 12 206 LIU Brooklyn L 75-76 46%    
  Sat, Feb 14 338 @Stonehill W 68-67 53%    
  Thu, Feb 19 318 @Mercyhurst L 67-68 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 361 @St. Francis (PA) W 75-70 69%    
  Thu, Feb 26 340 New Haven W 70-63 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 336 Chicago St. W 77-70 72%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.7 8.1 7.2 5.0 2.5 29.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 6.2 6.7 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.1 5.3 1.5 0.2 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.9 4.2 0.9 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.8 0.8 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 3.0 0.8 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.8 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.2 5.6 8.2 11.3 13.1 13.8 12.9 11.6 8.1 5.2 2.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 99.6% 2.5    2.5 0.0
15-1 97.6% 5.0    4.8 0.3 0.0
14-2 88.9% 7.2    5.8 1.5 0.0
13-3 69.4% 8.1    4.6 3.1 0.3 0.0
12-4 36.2% 4.7    1.5 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
11-5 9.9% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 29.0% 29.0 19.3 7.5 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.5% 46.0% 46.0% 15.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.4
15-1 5.2% 40.9% 40.9% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.1
14-2 8.1% 35.1% 35.1% 15.9 0.2 2.7 5.3
13-3 11.6% 30.7% 30.7% 16.0 0.1 3.5 8.0
12-4 12.9% 23.1% 23.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0 9.9
11-5 13.8% 17.7% 17.7% 16.0 0.0 2.4 11.4
10-6 13.1% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7 11.5
9-7 11.3% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.9 10.4
8-8 8.2% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.6 7.6
7-9 5.6% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.3 5.3
6-10 3.2% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.2 3.0
5-11 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-12 0.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-13 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 1.4 17.4 81.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.1 17.6 52.9 29.4