Wagner
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#300
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#186
Pace56.8#363
Improvement+0.3#168

Offense
Total Offense-8.2#357
First Shot-7.2#346
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#230
Layup/Dunks-4.3#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#251
Freethrows-2.5#305
Improvement+1.2#87

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#144
First Shot-2.8#267
After Offensive Rebounds+3.6#11
Layups/Dunks-0.1#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#272
Freethrows-2.2#307
Improvement-1.0#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.9% 22.1% 15.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 71.1% 79.0% 56.2%
.500 or above in Conference 82.1% 85.3% 76.1%
Conference Champion 26.3% 29.5% 20.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.3% 4.2%
First Four13.1% 13.5% 12.4%
First Round12.3% 14.5% 8.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Away) - 65.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 415 - 715 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 58   @ Rutgers L 52-75 4%     0 - 1 -10.5 -13.4 +2.4
  Nov 13, 2024 20   @ St. John's L 45-66 2%     0 - 2 -3.5 -15.3 +10.0
  Nov 16, 2024 116   @ Seton Hall L 28-54 11%     0 - 3 -20.0 -27.0 -1.1
  Nov 19, 2024 268   @ Boston University W 60-58 34%     1 - 3 -1.0 -3.2 +2.5
  Nov 26, 2024 98   @ Georgetown L 41-66 8%     1 - 4 -16.6 -21.0 +0.4
  Dec 04, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 65-52 92%     2 - 4 -9.8 -1.2 -5.6
  Dec 08, 2024 358   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 63-59 65%    
  Dec 14, 2024 347   @ NJIT W 60-58 57%    
  Dec 18, 2024 313   Manhattan W 65-61 64%    
  Jan 03, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 66-56 82%    
  Jan 05, 2025 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 71-64 75%    
  Jan 10, 2025 240   @ Central Connecticut St. L 55-61 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 361   Mercyhurst W 62-52 83%    
  Jan 20, 2025 339   St. Francis (PA) W 65-59 72%    
  Jan 24, 2025 361   @ Mercyhurst W 59-55 66%    
  Jan 26, 2025 339   @ St. Francis (PA) W 62-61 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 336   @ Stonehill L 59-60 49%    
  Feb 01, 2025 334   Le Moyne W 64-58 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 342   LIU Brooklyn W 64-57 74%    
  Feb 08, 2025 341   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 13, 2025 334   @ Le Moyne L 61-62 49%    
  Feb 20, 2025 336   Stonehill W 62-56 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. W 63-59 63%    
  Feb 27, 2025 342   @ LIU Brooklyn W 61-60 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 240   Central Connecticut St. W 58-57 50%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.9 6.9 7.0 4.9 2.3 0.4 26.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 6.2 8.4 5.2 1.5 0.2 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.9 6.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.5 4.8 1.3 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.0 0.9 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 3.2 0.9 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.9 7.8 10.8 13.1 14.8 14.7 12.4 8.6 5.0 2.3 0.4 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-1 100.0% 2.3    2.2 0.1
14-2 96.7% 4.9    4.4 0.5
13-3 82.1% 7.0    5.1 1.8 0.1
12-4 55.8% 6.9    3.7 2.8 0.4 0.0
11-5 26.7% 3.9    1.2 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 5.7% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 26.3% 26.3 17.1 7.3 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.4% 50.0% 50.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-1 2.3% 47.2% 47.2% 14.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.2
14-2 5.0% 42.3% 42.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 2.9
13-3 8.6% 35.0% 35.0% 15.8 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.6
12-4 12.4% 28.9% 28.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.3 8.8
11-5 14.7% 23.0% 23.0% 16.0 0.1 3.3 11.3
10-6 14.8% 17.5% 17.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6 12.3
9-7 13.1% 14.0% 14.0% 16.0 0.0 1.8 11.3
8-8 10.8% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 1.1 9.7
7-9 7.8% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.6 7.2
6-10 4.9% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.3 4.7
5-11 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 2.7
4-12 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-13 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.9% 19.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 16.7 80.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.6 4.1 46.9 34.7 12.2 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%