Avon
Boys - Girls
2017 - 2018 - 2019
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State Rank #18
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #6
Ben Davis Regional Rank #2
South Putnam Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 15th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 4.7%
Top 10 at State Finals 28.9%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating THSB State Preview Avon Invitational Hoosier Crossroads Conference Nike Valley Twilight South Putnam Sectional Ben Davis Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 9/1 9/15 9/22 9/29 10/6 10/13 10/20 10/27
Team Rating 319 279 292 410 594 437 333 288 381
Team Adjusted Rating 277 292 333 339 372 333 288 381
State RankRunnerSeason Rating THSB State Preview Avon Invitational Hoosier Crossroads Conference Nike Valley Twilight South Putnam Sectional Ben Davis Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
32  Ethan Goddard 12 16:09 16:00 16:08 16:07 16:24 16:14 16:07
74  Nathaniel Beeler 11 16:28 15:59 16:19 16:28 16:32 16:34 16:26 16:49
130  Ben Schmitt 12 16:46 16:54 16:48 16:56 17:51 17:04 16:34 17:10
231  William Sims 12 17:02 16:50 16:47 17:12 17:17 16:54 16:54 17:14
312  Justin Loh 11 17:15 17:20 17:03 17:18 17:06 17:30
356  Awet Hailu 11 17:20 17:33 17:29 17:23 17:23 17:40 17:02 17:21 17:14
426  Scout Bogan 12 17:29 17:17 17:13 17:22 17:33 18:10
555  Jake Shepherd 11 17:43 17:45 17:42 17:46 17:40
599  Andrew Wiggs 12 17:48 17:53 17:55 17:39 17:38 18:06
605  Kevin Rostam 10 17:48 17:34 17:56
647  Sam Crook 10 17:52 17:38 18:08 17:52 17:45
675  Griffin O'Neill 9 17:55 17:38 18:03 17:51 18:01
698  Bartosz Stoppel 12 17:57 17:50 17:52 18:15 17:52
738  Connor O'Neill 11 18:01 18:01 18:07 17:54
778  Ethan Maharas 11 18:03 18:45 17:57 17:08 18:19
783  Edwin Molina 11 18:03 17:56 18:17 17:40 18:02 18:23
1,237  Darian Rostam 10 18:37 18:04 18:57 18:38
1,335  Ibtihaj Butt 12 18:44 18:39 18:49
1,358  Ben Hochgesang 10 18:46 18:53 18:49 18:38 18:48
1,409  Cameron O'Mara 10 18:50 18:49
1,544  Thomas Hancock 10 18:59 19:07 19:18 18:54 18:46
Cameron Mothersead 12 19:01 18:54 19:16 18:48 19:06
Jack Bogan 10 19:09 19:47 19:23 18:55 18:57
Logan Shaffer 10 19:17 19:12 19:37 19:06 19:18
Aron Gebre 11 19:35 19:49 19:56 18:56
Landis Nemeth 12 20:22 18:37 20:20 21:28




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 13.4 342 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.3 3.2 4.1 4.7 5.7 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.7 7.1 7.3 6.8 6.7 7.0 6.1 4.9 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1
Semi-State 100% 6.0 190 0.1 1.0 6.5 13.7 21.3 20.7 16.6 10.7 5.7 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.1 67 16.2 58.9 20.2 4.7 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.2 33 75.2 24.9



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Goddard 100% 33.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.7 88.7%
Nathaniel Beeler 100% 70.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 32.7%
Ben Schmitt 100% 104.9 3.0%
William Sims 100% 134.9 0.0%
Justin Loh 100% 158.8 0.0%
Awet Hailu 100% 167.6 0.0%
Scout Bogan 100% 179.2 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Goddard 100% 9.4 0.8 4.3 7.9 7.4 7.4 7.4 6.7 6.1 5.5 5.2 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.7 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.1 100.0%
Nathaniel Beeler 100% 26.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.9 100.0%
Ben Schmitt 100% 43.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 99.8%
William Sims 100% 68.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.0%
Justin Loh 100% 90.8 74.1%
Awet Hailu 100% 99.4 58.0%
Scout Bogan 100% 110.6 31.6%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Goddard 100% 1.9 32.4 20.1 14.0 11.1 8.1 6.2 4.1 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Nathaniel Beeler 100% 7.4 0.3 3.0 4.8 5.9 8.2 9.9 12.6 13.4 14.2 12.1 7.8 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ben Schmitt 100% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 6.2 10.7 14.2 15.0 11.4 9.0 6.6 4.9 4.1 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 100.0%
William Sims 100% 18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.9 5.8 6.5 7.2 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.2 5.7 5.6 4.7 4.7 4.2 100.0%
Justin Loh 100% 26.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.7 3.3 3.4 3.8 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.5 100.0%
Awet Hailu 100% 30.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.5 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.9 100.0%
Scout Bogan 100% 34.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ethan Goddard 1.0 79.0 16.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nathaniel Beeler 2.6 1.4 30.7 31.3 20.1 11.7 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ben Schmitt 5.3 0.6 4.8 14.8 21.5 25.0 13.7 8.1 4.6 3.0 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
William Sims 8.9 0.0 0.6 2.6 7.1 13.5 14.3 12.7 11.4 10.0 8.5 7.5 5.1 4.0 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Justin Loh 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.5 5.1 6.5 7.5 9.3 11.1 11.5 12.6 12.3 9.1 4.9 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Awet Hailu 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.8 4.7 6.5 7.5 9.9 12.3 14.1 15.1 10.7 6.1 3.3 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
Scout Bogan 17.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.8 6.2 9.5 13.5 19.1 15.1 10.2 7.3 4.2 2.4 1.5 0.7