Carmel
Boys - Girls
2017 - 2018 - 2019
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State Rank #2
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #1
Noblesville Regional Rank #1
Noblesville Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 1st place at State Finals
State Champion 46.5%
Top 5 at State Finals 95.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 99.6%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Hamilton County Marion Invitational BC Eagle Classic Riverview Health Flashrock Invite Metro Interscholastic Conference Nike Valley Twilight Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/28 9/1 9/8 9/15 9/22 9/29 10/6 10/13 10/20 10/27
Team Rating 174 158 336 182 150 214 185 282 224 204 174
Team Adjusted Rating 158 194 182 142 194 185 192 186 180 174
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Hamilton County Marion Invitational BC Eagle Classic Riverview Health Flashrock Invite Metro Interscholastic Conference Nike Valley Twilight Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
24  Calvin Bates 12 16:05 16:17 16:18 15:55 16:19 16:03 16:16 16:13 15:58
37  Grant Moon 11 16:15 16:03 16:09 16:09 16:25 16:25 16:17 16:14 16:11
46  Patrick Campbell 12 16:18 15:57 16:37 16:05 16:14 16:15 16:24 16:07 16:54
57  Will Murphy 11 16:21 16:25 16:12 16:15 16:21 16:19 16:28 16:29 16:21
63  Ben Johnson 11 16:24 17:16 17:00 16:14 16:50 17:32 16:17
88  Cam Harless 12 16:33 16:29 16:43 16:48 16:32 16:30 16:23 16:47 16:34
106  Thomas Gastineau 12 16:39 16:21 16:57 16:38 17:01 16:38 16:30 16:37 16:55 16:38
131  Samuel Stage 12 16:46 16:38 16:45 16:52 16:36 16:43 16:54 16:40 16:58
169  Brett Ploss 12 16:54 16:40 16:51 16:52 17:00 17:07 16:45
253  Nick Schuster 11 17:06 17:12 17:54 16:46 17:01 17:08
261  Ben Myers 11 17:07 18:04 17:28 16:57 17:02 16:55
263  Brendan Mudd 12 17:08 16:50 17:20 16:42 17:01 17:11
265  Kurt Stephens 11 17:08 17:20 17:27 16:43 17:06 17:17
269  Jack Salzmann 12 17:08 17:04 16:59 17:15
276  Will Anderson 10 17:09 17:01 17:03 17:17 17:12 17:05 17:12
279  Jake Fisher 10 17:09 16:47 16:53 17:03 17:23 17:18
296  Bing Hudson 10 17:12 17:07 17:14 17:20 17:11 17:26 17:01 17:11
327  Sam Hooton 11 17:16 17:25 17:14 17:17 17:14
353  Caleb Leinheiser 11 17:20 17:25 17:21 17:18 17:21
400  Alec Wrobleski 10 17:26 17:37 17:22 17:24 17:29 17:29
467  Nate Enfield 12 17:35 17:48 17:15 17:19 17:42 17:50
495  Austin Throckmorton 11 17:38 17:38
501  Eli Konow 11 17:38 17:05 17:46 18:00 17:39 17:25
518  Charlie Schuman 9 17:40 18:09 17:26 17:42 18:06 17:32
525  Owen Booth 11 17:41 17:46 17:40 17:34 17:47 17:40
561  Adi Friedman 11 17:44 17:27 18:25 17:29 17:36 17:47
566  Ben Baines 12 17:44 17:22 18:01 17:16 17:50 17:47
575  Brady Firenze 12 17:45 16:55 16:55 18:01 17:55
602  Jake Green 12 17:48 17:41 17:48 17:52 17:44
650  Nate Seketa 10 17:52 17:55 17:37 17:47 18:10
657  Owen Urtel 10 17:53 17:47 17:42 17:58 17:56 17:54
690  Tyler Young 10 17:56 18:19 17:38 17:57 17:58
721  Miles Simmons 10 17:59 17:56 17:38 17:47 18:30 18:00
735  Sean Reimer 12 18:00 17:57 18:02
741  Austin Howse 12 18:01 17:54 18:16 17:43 17:53 18:17
773  James Gastineau 10 18:03 17:49 17:56 18:12 18:04 18:02
819  Ike Manlick 12 18:07 17:22 18:32 17:36 17:34 19:31
827  Alex Nakeeb 12 18:07 17:50 19:28 17:39 18:03
857  Chris Perry 12 18:09 18:11 18:18 17:52 18:17
887  Peyton Sandlin 11 18:11 18:16 17:46 18:27 18:05 18:26
890  Zane Snider 12 18:11 18:21 19:57 17:43 18:13 18:02
897  Drew Miller 10 18:12 17:50 18:00 19:11 18:06 18:06
921  Evan Rohan 12 18:14 17:55 20:32 18:01 18:13 18:02
952  Alex Wade 12 18:16 17:43 18:49 18:39 17:44 18:14
957  Will Campbell 10 18:17 17:51 18:13 18:47 18:08 18:15
988  Robert Kinney 12 18:19 18:13 18:39 18:14 18:21 18:13
1,049  Dan Schrader-Dobris 10 18:24 18:04 18:28 18:21
1,055  TK Shishikura 11 18:24 18:28 19:35 18:31 18:14 18:12
1,139  Ian Miller 9 18:30 18:28 18:40 18:45 18:18 18:30
1,192  Drew Thornton 9 18:34 17:49 19:08 17:54 18:23 19:04
1,202  Josh Koone 12 18:35 18:50 19:25 18:31 18:22
1,241  Ethan Welp 12 18:37 18:05 18:22 18:11 19:40
1,273  Connor Heagy 9 18:39 18:34 21:26 18:49 18:24 18:21
1,274  Trevor Johnson 11 18:39 18:56 18:48 18:27 18:45 18:40
1,295  Noah Bergsma 11 18:41 18:27 18:16 18:49 18:50
1,326  Aiden Ascioti 11 18:44 18:30 19:11 18:37 18:40
1,391  Josh Bubp 9 18:49 18:35 18:45 18:58 18:39 18:58
1,478  Daniel Musapatkia 10 18:54 18:54
Jackson Pasheliich 10 19:02 19:35 19:21 19:45 18:53 18:45
Lant Jenkins 12 19:03 19:20 19:20 18:55
JT Underhill 10 19:04 19:30 21:07 18:32 19:10 18:52
Leo Schneider 9 19:05 18:50 19:24 19:05 18:49 19:13
Tim Metken 12 19:08 19:22 19:03 19:14
Sam Eiteljorge 9 19:09 19:33 20:50 18:43 19:12 18:59
Suraj Chandramouli 10 19:13 19:47 18:48
Will Hurdle 12 19:17 19:10 20:34 19:14 19:15 19:01
Seigo Tomozawa 12 19:22 19:53 19:29 19:52 19:05
Ryan Abshire 11 19:37 18:50 20:06 20:09 19:25 19:26




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 2.2 143 46.5 24.4 14.3 6.6 3.3 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 100% 1.4 64 68.5 24.6 5.2 1.4 0.2 0.1
Regionals 100% 1.4 47 67.2 29.6 3.2 0.1
Sectionals 100% 1.0 24 99.4 0.6 0.1



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Calvin Bates 100% 26.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.7 2.5 3.4 2.6 2.5 3.1 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.1 94.1%
Grant Moon 100% 43.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 74.2%
Patrick Campbell 100% 49.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.2 67.9%
Will Murphy 100% 55.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 55.7%
Ben Johnson 100% 61.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 49.5%
Cam Harless 100% 81.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 20.5%
Thomas Gastineau 100% 93.6 9.9%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Calvin Bates 100% 6.8 1.6 9.3 12.2 11.9 8.5 8.7 7.3 5.9 6.1 4.8 4.1 3.2 2.9 2.6 1.8 1.6 2.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 100.0%
Grant Moon 100% 13.5 1.0 2.0 3.7 3.9 4.9 5.2 6.1 4.8 5.7 5.5 4.6 5.4 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.5 3.7 3.5 2.7 2.8 2.1 2.4 100.0%
Patrick Campbell 100% 16.2 0.2 1.0 1.6 3.1 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.6 5.8 4.7 4.0 4.1 4.7 3.7 4.1 4.0 3.0 2.8 1.8 100.0%
Will Murphy 100% 19.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 3.1 3.3 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.6 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.9 4.2 3.6 4.4 3.8 3.4 100.0%
Ben Johnson 100% 21.9 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.6 3.7 3.1 3.7 4.0 3.7 4.2 3.4 4.0 4.3 3.2 4.0 4.2 4.3 100.0%
Cam Harless 100% 30.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.1 99.9%
Thomas Gastineau 100% 36.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.6 1.4 2.2 99.6%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Calvin Bates 100% 4.3 2.4 22.8 20.4 16.2 11.7 8.9 6.4 4.6 2.3 2.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Grant Moon 100% 7.8 0.1 2.6 5.9 9.3 11.6 11.9 11.6 9.4 8.1 6.8 6.4 5.3 4.0 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 100.0%
Patrick Campbell 100% 8.9 0.1 1.0 3.5 5.9 8.5 10.2 10.8 10.7 10.9 8.2 7.9 6.2 4.1 3.7 2.7 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Will Murphy 100% 10.7 0.6 1.7 3.6 4.9 5.9 7.6 8.3 10.8 9.8 10.0 8.1 8.1 6.1 4.3 3.0 2.7 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 100.0%
Ben Johnson 100% 11.7 0.3 0.6 1.9 2.4 4.8 6.7 8.2 8.1 10.3 9.9 8.8 8.6 7.1 5.7 4.2 3.1 3.0 2.2 1.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 100.0%
Cam Harless 100% 16.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 3.4 3.3 5.4 7.4 8.3 8.0 9.2 8.2 6.8 6.8 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.6 2.8 1.8 100.0%
Thomas Gastineau 100% 18.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.0 2.4 3.1 4.4 5.2 7.9 8.8 9.3 7.0 7.1 6.5 6.4 4.9 4.0 3.7 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Calvin Bates 2.1 2.8 45.1 38.3 9.2 3.5 0.9 0.2
Grant Moon 3.8 0.3 5.7 19.2 31.3 22.2 13.2 6.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.1
Patrick Campbell 4.5 0.1 3.4 10.3 23.6 25.5 21.0 11.1 3.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Will Murphy 5.3 0.1 1.2 6.1 14.0 20.1 25.6 21.7 7.1 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Ben Johnson 6.0 0.4 2.6 8.8 15.3 24.0 30.0 11.5 4.0 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
Cam Harless 7.8 0.3 0.4 1.7 4.5 13.1 37.4 22.7 7.8 3.7 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Thomas Gastineau 8.7 0.1 0.3 1.0 4.9 17.9 35.3 15.0 7.3 5.5 3.4 3.0 2.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.3