North Central (Indpls)
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #16
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #7
Noblesville Regional Rank #4
Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional Rank #4
Most Likely Finish 8th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.5%
Top 10 at State Finals 6.9%
Advance to State Finals 23.0%
Advance to Semi-State 90.9%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.




Season Rating Zionsville Early Bird (4k) Marion Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Ben Davis Invitational RH Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Marion County Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional
Date 8/24 9/7 9/14 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/12
Team Rating 326 294 307 352 736 321 366 335 481
Team Adjusted Rating 294 297 347 326 299 338 335 371
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Zionsville Early Bird (4k) Marion Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Ben Davis Invitational RH Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Marion County Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional
Alex Frey 12 15:40 15:36 15:26 15:37 15:40 15:53 15:56 16:20
81  Howard Hendricks 12 16:35 16:28 16:35 16:40 16:11 16:53 16:33
206  Nate Killeen 9 16:59 16:35 17:14 16:59 17:08
274  Jon Petersen 11 17:10 17:14 17:00 17:10 17:16 17:04 17:09 17:13
280  Aaron Broderick 11 17:11 17:07 17:07 17:04 17:08 17:29
461  Hayden Monk 10 17:33 17:43 17:35 17:32 17:21 17:31 17:28
463  Sawyer Husain 10 17:33 17:42 17:41 17:13 17:14 17:20 18:09 17:33
478  Xavier Guarneros 9 17:34 17:14 17:03 17:59 18:00 17:15 18:06
534  Andrew Charbonneau 9 17:39 17:38 17:42 17:37 17:37 17:45
603  Dominik Hickman 11 17:46 17:57 17:27 17:57 18:02 17:42
648  Woodrow Murray 11 17:50 17:53 17:47 17:48 18:04 17:29 18:10
706  Gabe Chambers 10 17:54 17:40 18:09 17:48 17:31 18:00 18:07
917  Henry Deryke 10 18:12 18:07 18:25 18:08
945  Jack Strabala 10 18:15 18:23 18:33 18:15 17:58
1,046  Nick Davis 12 18:22 18:44 18:12 18:16 18:25
1,294  Henry Leffler 9 18:40 18:41 18:44 18:50 18:41 18:38 18:27
1,313  Robert Fitzgerald 10 18:41 18:43 18:36 18:48 18:42
1,359  David Lamb 12 18:45 18:50 18:51 18:44
1,374  CJ Brizzi 11 18:45 18:37 18:54 19:01 18:41
1,381  Brooks Hillenbrand 11 18:46 18:44 18:13 19:22 18:50
1,583  Jaiden Gray 9 19:00 19:54 19:03 18:51 19:03 18:45 18:51
Daniel Scherrer 10 19:06 19:14 18:56 18:56 19:10 19:21
Brody Friend 9 19:19 19:28 19:44 19:18 19:34 19:03 18:52
Grady Hadar 9 19:21 19:37 20:08 19:18 18:55 19:14 19:14




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 23.0% 12.2 322 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.4 2.1 1.6 2.3 2.6 3.4 2.1 2.3 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1
Semi-State 90.9% 7.6 207 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.1 7.1 11.2 19.4 20.5 15.7 7.3 2.9 1.7 0.4 0.2
Regionals 100% 4.5 124 0.1 2.1 8.4 36.1 44.3 7.8 1.4 0.1
Sectionals 100% 2.0 60 8.2 84.3 7.1 0.5



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alex Frey 100% 5.1 7.2 9.9 12.2 10.6 9.3 8.0 7.3 6.6 5.4 3.7 4.1 2.5 3.0 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 100.0% 100.0%
Howard Hendricks 32.4% 63.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 12.2% 20.6%
Nate Killeen 23.0% 116.0 0.0% 0.3%
Jon Petersen 23.0% 138.1 0.0% 0.0%
Aaron Broderick 23.0% 141.6 0.0% 0.0%
Hayden Monk 23.0% 176.9 0.0% 0.0%
Sawyer Husain 23.0% 177.2 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alex Frey 100% 1.9 27.3 24.1 16.6 9.7 7.1 6.1 2.6 2.0 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0% 100.0%
Howard Hendricks 98.8% 32.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.7 2.6 3.6 4.0 86.3% 97.3%
Nate Killeen 91.1% 62.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.7% 42.9%
Jon Petersen 90.9% 81.8 0.0% 13.0%
Aaron Broderick 90.9% 82.8 0.0% 12.5%
Hayden Monk 90.9% 116.2 0.0% 0.3%
Sawyer Husain 90.9% 116.7 0.0% 0.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alex Frey 100% 1.5 34.1 31.1 16.2 9.3 5.0 3.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Howard Hendricks 100% 15.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.3 5.8 5.9 7.2 7.3 6.6 6.4 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.3 4.6 4.7 3.2 3.8 2.8 2.3 100.0%
Nate Killeen 100% 33.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4 100.0%
Jon Petersen 100% 42.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 100.0%
Aaron Broderick 100% 42.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 100.0%
Hayden Monk 100% 58.3 0.1 99.2%
Sawyer Husain 100% 58.4 99.4%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Alex Frey 1.2 41.0 53.9 4.8 0.4
Howard Hendricks 5.9 1.5 6.8 21.0 22.4 14.6 10.0 7.4 5.0 4.7 2.2 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2
Nate Killeen 13.8 0.1 1.0 2.5 4.5 4.4 5.4 6.8 8.9 8.2 10.7 10.6 9.5 7.6 7.0 4.7 3.7 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.2
Jon Petersen 18.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 2.9 4.1 3.5 6.8 7.9 10.6 11.4 10.2 9.6 7.9 6.9 5.2 3.5 2.2
Aaron Broderick 18.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.3 2.5 4.1 4.4 4.6 7.3 9.8 10.8 10.7 9.6 9.2 6.6 5.5 3.8 2.8
Hayden Monk 27.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.2 2.0 3.7 5.2 5.4 7.3 6.7
Sawyer Husain 26.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.8 3.7 5.0 5.9 7.0 9.4