Vermont
America East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#79
Expected Predictive Rating+7.0#84
Pace65.2#283
Improvement+4.0#33

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#83
First Shot+4.3#56
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#246
Layup/Dunks+2.7#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#56
Freethrows+0.1#169
Improvement+6.5#1

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#77
First Shot+1.8#116
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#45
Layups/Dunks-0.5#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#132
Freethrows+2.6#25
Improvement-2.4#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.3% 68.7% 61.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 98.9% 99.1% 95.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round68.2% 68.7% 61.1%
Second Round16.2% 16.6% 10.4%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 5.0% 2.8%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.0% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hartford (Home) - 94.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 26 - 5
Quad 420 - 126 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 101   @ Northern Iowa W 71-57 49%     1 - 0 +21.5 -0.9 +22.2
  Nov 13, 2021 70   @ Maryland L 57-68 38%     1 - 1 -0.8 -5.7 +4.0
  Nov 19, 2021 134   Yale W 61-53 77%     2 - 1 +7.5 -7.4 +15.6
  Nov 22, 2021 105   Oakland L 61-63 60%     2 - 2 +2.5 -8.2 +10.6
  Nov 23, 2021 270   Evansville W 58-49 89%     3 - 2 +3.0 -12.1 +15.8
  Nov 24, 2021 185   Appalachian St. W 65-63 78%     4 - 2 +1.1 +3.8 -2.4
  Nov 27, 2021 175   @ UNC Greensboro L 51-54 69%     4 - 3 -1.0 -6.0 +4.3
  Dec 01, 2021 243   Dartmouth W 83-65 90%     5 - 3 +11.0 +15.1 -2.7
  Dec 07, 2021 44   @ Providence L 58-68 29%     5 - 4 +2.8 -2.6 +4.6
  Dec 10, 2021 181   @ Brown W 70-65 70%     6 - 4 +6.8 +1.2 +5.7
  Dec 22, 2021 129   Colgate W 78-68 76%     7 - 4 +10.0 +2.8 +7.2
  Jan 06, 2022 230   New Hampshire W 82-68 89%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +8.0 +15.6 -5.7
  Jan 12, 2022 224   Stony Brook W 98-65 88%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +27.6 +30.7 +0.0
  Jan 15, 2022 254   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 86-69 82%     10 - 4 3 - 0 +14.6 +11.1 +3.3
  Jan 19, 2022 305   @ NJIT W 83-57 88%     11 - 4 4 - 0 +20.2 +10.8 +9.8
  Jan 22, 2022 278   Hartford W 78-62 94%    
  Jan 26, 2022 224   @ Stony Brook W 73-65 75%    
  Jan 29, 2022 349   Maine W 76-52 99%    
  Jan 31, 2022 255   Albany W 71-56 92%    
  Feb 02, 2022 305   NJIT W 74-56 96%    
  Feb 05, 2022 262   @ Umass Lowell W 72-62 81%    
  Feb 09, 2022 310   Binghamton W 77-59 96%    
  Feb 12, 2022 255   @ Albany W 69-59 80%    
  Feb 14, 2022 278   @ Hartford W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 16, 2022 230   @ New Hampshire W 68-60 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 254   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-62 92%    
  Feb 23, 2022 310   @ Binghamton W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 26, 2022 262   Umass Lowell W 75-60 92%    
  Mar 01, 2022 349   @ Maine W 73-54 96%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.2 13.9 24.8 31.5 21.6 98.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.0 5.4 13.9 24.8 31.5 21.6 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 21.6    21.6
17-1 100.0% 31.5    31.5
16-2 100.0% 24.8    24.7 0.1
15-3 99.4% 13.9    13.3 0.5
14-4 96.5% 5.2    4.4 0.8 0.0
13-5 82.2% 1.7    1.1 0.6 0.0
12-6 55.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 6.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 98.9% 98.9 96.7 2.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 21.6% 76.0% 75.7% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.4 3.6 6.4 2.7 0.1 5.2 1.4%
17-1 31.5% 72.6% 72.6% 12.8 0.3 7.2 13.1 2.3 8.6
16-2 24.8% 65.6% 65.6% 13.2 0.0 1.9 9.8 4.3 0.2 8.5
15-3 13.9% 60.5% 60.5% 13.5 0.3 4.0 3.8 0.3 5.5
14-4 5.4% 57.9% 57.9% 13.8 0.0 0.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 2.3
13-5 2.0% 46.4% 46.4% 14.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1
12-6 0.5% 32.3% 32.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.2% 29.9% 29.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.1% 40.0% 40.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 68.3% 68.2% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.4 3.9 15.9 30.7 13.1 1.1 0.0 31.7 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 16.3% 100.0% 11.3 0.2 1.3 2.1 3.0 6.7 8.7 21.9 39.1 16.2 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 2.5% 12.0 0.4 1.5 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0% 0.3% 12.0 0.3