Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#262
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#230
Pace71.4#103
Improvement-4.9#350

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#304
First Shot-2.0#249
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#331
Layup/Dunks-1.5#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#253
Freethrows-2.0#309
Improvement-2.9#327

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#187
First Shot+0.7#158
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#291
Layups/Dunks+1.5#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#311
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#76
Freethrows-1.5#283
Improvement-2.0#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 4.4% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 38.8% 59.3% 29.1%
.500 or above in Conference 29.9% 49.5% 20.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 1.1% 4.9%
First Four1.2% 1.4% 1.2%
First Round2.4% 3.7% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Hampshire (Away) - 32.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 31 - 42 - 7
Quad 411 - 713 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 72   @ Dayton W 59-58 8%     1 - 0 +11.0 +1.5 +9.7
  Nov 16, 2021 46   Oklahoma St. L 58-80 8%     1 - 1 -12.0 -7.5 -3.8
  Nov 17, 2021 343   Central Connecticut St. W 77-53 77%     2 - 1 +11.1 +1.8 +10.5
  Nov 19, 2021 271   @ George Washington W 67-56 43%     3 - 1 +7.4 -10.0 +16.8
  Nov 24, 2021 154   @ Massachusetts L 81-92 21%     3 - 2 -8.0 -0.6 -6.7
  Dec 01, 2021 181   Brown L 63-73 42%     3 - 3 -13.3 -12.3 -0.5
  Dec 04, 2021 289   @ Merrimack W 61-57 49%     4 - 3 -1.0 -7.4 +6.6
  Dec 08, 2021 198   @ Boston University L 62-72 27%     4 - 4 -9.0 -12.4 +3.5
  Dec 19, 2021 284   Sacred Heart W 70-62 66%     5 - 4 -1.7 -5.6 +4.4
  Jan 02, 2022 310   @ Binghamton L 63-68 53%     5 - 5 0 - 1 -11.1 -8.7 -2.8
  Jan 06, 2022 305   NJIT L 72-77 70%     5 - 6 0 - 2 -15.8 -3.6 -12.2
  Jan 08, 2022 254   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 66-64 39%     6 - 6 1 - 2 -0.4 -7.6 +7.2
  Jan 12, 2022 255   @ Albany L 47-57 39%     6 - 7 1 - 3 -12.5 -20.4 +7.3
  Jan 19, 2022 349   Maine W 71-62 86%     7 - 7 2 - 3 -7.9 -6.0 -1.7
  Jan 22, 2022 230   @ New Hampshire L 63-67 32%    
  Jan 26, 2022 255   Albany W 65-63 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 278   @ Hartford L 70-71 43%    
  Feb 02, 2022 349   @ Maine W 68-61 72%    
  Feb 05, 2022 79   Vermont L 62-72 19%    
  Feb 09, 2022 224   @ Stony Brook L 68-73 30%    
  Feb 12, 2022 254   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 16, 2022 305   @ NJIT W 67-66 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 310   Binghamton W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 23, 2022 224   Stony Brook W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 26, 2022 79   @ Vermont L 60-75 8%    
  Mar 01, 2022 230   New Hampshire W 65-64 54%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 7 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 4.9 1.6 0.2 9.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.6 7.4 2.3 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 8.3 4.1 0.2 14.3 5th
6th 0.7 7.2 6.9 0.6 15.5 6th
7th 0.5 5.0 8.4 1.3 0.0 15.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.9 7.5 2.5 0.0 14.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.1 5.2 2.2 0.1 11.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.1 9.8 15.5 20.0 19.4 15.2 9.2 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 54.5% 0.0    0.0
13-5 12.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 9.2% 9.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.2% 8.2% 8.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
11-7 4.1% 8.5% 8.5% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.8
10-8 9.2% 7.8% 7.8% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 8.4
9-9 15.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.1 0.6 14.5
8-10 19.4% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.1 0.7 18.6
7-11 20.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 19.7
6-12 15.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.4
5-13 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.8
4-14 4.1% 4.1
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%