Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#254
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#281
Pace70.6#126
Improvement-2.9#300

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#239
First Shot-0.3#186
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#317
Layup/Dunks-4.5#326
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#57
Freethrows+1.0#96
Improvement-3.4#341

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#253
First Shot-1.5#230
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#266
Layups/Dunks-3.2#291
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#114
Freethrows+2.2#43
Improvement+0.5#160
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 4.6% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 19.0% 23.7% 6.1%
.500 or above in Conference 41.0% 48.4% 20.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.2% 8.6%
First Four3.0% 3.3% 2.3%
First Round2.6% 3.0% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maine (Away) - 73.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 62 - 10
Quad 411 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 154   @ Massachusetts L 60-77 22%     0 - 1 -14.0 -19.1 +5.8
  Nov 19, 2021 312   Western Carolina W 91-75 64%     1 - 1 +7.3 +8.2 -1.5
  Nov 20, 2021 187   @ Longwood L 55-82 27%     1 - 2 -25.5 -13.0 -14.3
  Nov 23, 2021 330   American W 98-67 80%     2 - 2 +17.3 +20.4 -2.3
  Nov 27, 2021 139   @ Pittsburgh W 87-77 20%     3 - 2 +14.1 +16.9 -2.9
  Dec 01, 2021 337   Columbia W 98-60 81%     4 - 2 +23.8 +10.3 +10.8
  Dec 05, 2021 146   @ Delaware L 60-70 21%     4 - 3 -6.5 -14.7 +8.4
  Dec 08, 2021 155   @ Georgetown L 71-100 22%     4 - 4 -26.0 -10.4 -12.1
  Dec 13, 2021 144   @ Princeton L 77-89 21%     4 - 5 -8.4 +0.1 -8.1
  Dec 16, 2021 175   UNC Greensboro L 51-62 43%     4 - 6 -14.0 -12.6 -3.0
  Jan 08, 2022 262   Umass Lowell L 64-66 61%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -9.8 -10.1 +0.3
  Jan 12, 2022 305   @ NJIT W 76-56 53%     5 - 7 1 - 1 +14.2 +8.2 +7.5
  Jan 15, 2022 79   Vermont L 69-86 18%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -12.3 -2.0 -10.2
  Jan 17, 2022 224   @ Stony Brook L 51-65 33%     5 - 9 1 - 3 -14.4 -19.7 +4.5
  Jan 19, 2022 255   Albany L 54-66 60%     5 - 10 1 - 4 -19.5 -13.2 -7.5
  Jan 22, 2022 349   @ Maine W 70-63 74%    
  Jan 26, 2022 305   NJIT W 71-65 72%    
  Jan 29, 2022 310   @ Binghamton W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 02, 2022 255   @ Albany L 65-67 39%    
  Feb 05, 2022 230   New Hampshire W 67-66 56%    
  Feb 09, 2022 278   Hartford W 75-71 67%    
  Feb 12, 2022 262   @ Umass Lowell L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 14, 2022 230   @ New Hampshire L 64-68 34%    
  Feb 16, 2022 224   Stony Brook W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 19, 2022 79   @ Vermont L 62-77 8%    
  Feb 23, 2022 278   @ Hartford L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 349   Maine W 72-60 88%    
  Mar 01, 2022 310   Binghamton W 74-68 72%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 3.5 2.2 0.5 0.1 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.6 6.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 2.9 8.5 3.6 0.3 0.0 15.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 8.6 4.8 0.4 15.2 5th
6th 0.5 6.0 6.7 0.6 0.0 13.9 6th
7th 0.3 3.6 7.3 1.4 0.0 12.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.5 5.6 2.1 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 2.2 0.1 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.7 6.6 11.9 16.9 19.9 17.7 12.6 7.3 2.8 0.6 0.1 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 35.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 17.8% 17.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.6% 14.0% 14.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
12-6 2.8% 11.9% 11.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.5
11-7 7.3% 8.0% 8.0% 15.9 0.1 0.5 6.7
10-8 12.6% 6.2% 6.2% 15.9 0.1 0.7 11.8
9-9 17.7% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9 16.8
8-10 19.9% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.7 19.3
7-11 16.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.5 16.3
6-12 11.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.7
5-13 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.6
4-14 2.7% 2.7
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.7 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%