Iowa
Big Ten
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#37
Expected Predictive Rating+9.5#60
Pace80.1#10
Improvement-1.5#308

Offense
Total Offense+9.9#10
First Shot+10.3#7
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#195
Layup/Dunks+6.0#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#236
Freethrows+4.1#22
Improvement-1.9#337

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#127
First Shot+1.3#128
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#159
Layups/Dunks-4.0#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#69
Freethrows+1.3#106
Improvement+0.4#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 8.2% 8.4% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 19.1% 19.4% 6.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.8% 55.3% 31.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.8% 52.3% 28.2%
Average Seed 7.5 7.5 8.5
.500 or above 85.7% 86.2% 61.1%
.500 or above in Conference 66.3% 66.7% 49.0%
Conference Champion 4.4% 4.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 2.3% 7.0%
First Four6.0% 6.0% 5.3%
First Round52.0% 52.4% 29.3%
Second Round30.8% 31.1% 15.5%
Sweet Sixteen12.1% 12.3% 5.4%
Elite Eight5.0% 5.0% 1.7%
Final Four2.0% 2.0% 0.2%
Championship Game0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 34 - 113 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 256   North Dakota W 110-68 96%     1 - 0 +33.9 +17.5 +10.7
  Nov 10, 2023 330   Alabama St. W 98-67 98%     2 - 0 +17.6 +13.6 +2.0
  Nov 14, 2023 15   @ Creighton L 84-92 25%     2 - 1 +10.5 +13.9 -2.9
  Nov 17, 2023 213   Arkansas St. W 88-74 93%     3 - 1 +8.5 +4.1 +3.1
  Nov 23, 2023 24   Oklahoma L 67-79 44%     3 - 2 +1.1 +0.5 +0.7
  Nov 24, 2023 74   Seton Hall W 85-72 67%     4 - 2 +20.2 +15.0 +4.9
  Nov 29, 2023 298   North Florida W 95-73 98%    
  Dec 04, 2023 1   @ Purdue L 75-87 12%    
  Dec 07, 2023 33   @ Iowa St. L 76-80 36%    
  Dec 10, 2023 55   Michigan W 86-81 68%    
  Dec 16, 2023 338   Florida A&M W 87-64 98%    
  Dec 20, 2023 280   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 104-83 97%    
  Dec 29, 2023 165   Northern Illinois W 96-81 91%    
  Jan 02, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 06, 2024 54   Rutgers W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 12, 2024 52   Nebraska W 85-80 66%    
  Jan 15, 2024 128   @ Minnesota W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 20, 2024 1   Purdue L 78-84 27%    
  Jan 24, 2024 59   Maryland W 77-71 69%    
  Jan 26, 2024 55   @ Michigan L 83-84 46%    
  Jan 30, 2024 68   @ Indiana W 82-81 52%    
  Feb 02, 2024 27   Ohio St. W 82-80 56%    
  Feb 07, 2024 90   @ Penn St. W 86-83 61%    
  Feb 11, 2024 128   Minnesota W 85-73 85%    
  Feb 13, 2024 59   @ Maryland L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 17, 2024 35   Wisconsin W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 19, 2024 17   @ Michigan St. L 72-79 28%    
  Feb 24, 2024 31   @ Illinois L 80-84 36%    
  Feb 27, 2024 90   Penn St. W 89-80 79%    
  Mar 02, 2024 62   @ Northwestern W 77-76 50%    
  Mar 10, 2024 31   Illinois W 83-81 56%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.9 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.5 4.2 1.0 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.4 1.2 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.7 4.5 1.5 0.2 9.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.8 0.6 0.0 5.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.9 0.1 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.9 6.1 9.0 10.7 12.3 12.6 12.3 10.2 8.1 5.4 3.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
18-2 91.9% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 66.5% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 41.5% 1.4    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 18.1% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 16.6% 83.4% 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 2.7 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.3% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 3.7 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.4% 99.9% 13.2% 86.7% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 8.1% 98.2% 8.4% 89.8% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
13-7 10.2% 94.2% 8.7% 85.4% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.6 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.6 93.6%
12-8 12.3% 84.6% 6.9% 77.7% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 2.7 2.6 1.7 0.6 0.0 1.9 83.4%
11-9 12.6% 67.5% 5.6% 61.9% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.2 2.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 4.1 65.6%
10-10 12.3% 41.2% 4.3% 36.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.2 38.6%
9-11 10.7% 15.8% 3.8% 12.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 9.0 12.5%
8-12 9.0% 5.1% 3.4% 1.7% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.5 1.8%
7-13 6.1% 2.5% 2.4% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.0 0.1%
6-14 3.9% 3.2% 3.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.8
5-15 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-16 1.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 54.8% 6.2% 48.6% 7.5 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.0 5.1 5.9 7.2 7.4 7.2 7.0 5.2 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 45.2 51.8%