Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#17
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#105
Pace63.1#323
Improvement+2.4#21

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#33
First Shot+4.9#61
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#108
Layup/Dunks+6.2#21
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#335
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement+2.5#12

Defense
Total Defense+8.9#9
First Shot+10.4#4
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#285
Layups/Dunks+9.8#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#131
Freethrows-0.7#235
Improvement-0.1#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%
#1 Seed 4.4% 4.4% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 11.0% 11.0% 1.3%
Top 4 Seed 28.7% 28.8% 12.7%
Top 6 Seed 48.0% 48.1% 25.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.6% 81.8% 55.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.9% 79.1% 51.3%
Average Seed 5.8 5.8 6.8
.500 or above 94.6% 94.7% 76.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 91.2% 77.0%
Conference Champion 18.3% 18.3% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 3.7%
First Four3.7% 3.7% 4.7%
First Round80.2% 80.3% 53.3%
Second Round58.9% 59.0% 35.7%
Sweet Sixteen32.2% 32.2% 20.3%
Elite Eight16.7% 16.7% 10.0%
Final Four8.0% 8.1% 6.0%
Championship Game3.8% 3.8% 3.0%
National Champion1.7% 1.7% 2.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 27 - 212 - 9
Quad 35 - 116 - 10
Quad 45 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 67   James Madison L 76-79 OT 83%     0 - 1 +2.0 -8.5 +11.0
  Nov 09, 2023 339   Southern Indiana W 74-51 99%     1 - 1 +8.2 -5.0 +13.5
  Nov 14, 2023 7   Duke L 65-74 39%     1 - 2 +8.9 +2.2 +6.5
  Nov 17, 2023 50   Butler W 74-54 78%     2 - 2 +27.0 +11.4 +17.4
  Nov 19, 2023 291   Alcorn St. W 81-49 98%     3 - 2 +22.0 +5.9 +17.9
  Nov 23, 2023 2   Arizona L 68-74 34%     3 - 3 +13.4 +6.0 +7.2
  Nov 28, 2023 318   Georgia Southern W 81-54 99%    
  Dec 05, 2023 35   Wisconsin W 67-61 71%    
  Dec 10, 2023 52   @ Nebraska W 70-68 58%    
  Dec 16, 2023 13   Baylor L 73-74 48%    
  Dec 18, 2023 134   Oakland W 77-61 93%    
  Dec 21, 2023 258   Stony Brook W 74-51 98%    
  Dec 30, 2023 99   Indiana St. W 79-65 89%    
  Jan 04, 2024 90   Penn St. W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 07, 2024 62   @ Northwestern W 65-61 63%    
  Jan 11, 2024 31   @ Illinois L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 14, 2024 54   Rutgers W 66-57 78%    
  Jan 18, 2024 128   Minnesota W 73-58 92%    
  Jan 21, 2024 59   @ Maryland W 63-60 61%    
  Jan 26, 2024 35   @ Wisconsin W 64-63 50%    
  Jan 30, 2024 55   Michigan W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 03, 2024 59   Maryland W 66-57 79%    
  Feb 06, 2024 128   @ Minnesota W 70-61 80%    
  Feb 10, 2024 31   Illinois W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 14, 2024 90   @ Penn St. W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 17, 2024 55   @ Michigan W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 19, 2024 37   Iowa W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 25, 2024 27   Ohio St. W 70-65 68%    
  Mar 02, 2024 1   @ Purdue L 63-72 22%    
  Mar 06, 2024 62   Northwestern W 68-58 80%    
  Mar 10, 2024 68   @ Indiana W 69-65 64%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.2 5.2 3.8 1.9 0.3 18.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.9 8.1 5.9 2.9 0.7 0.1 25.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 5.7 6.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.3 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.2 3.2 1.0 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 2.8 0.9 0.1 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.0 1.0 0.1 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.1 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.0 5.7 8.6 10.6 13.2 14.0 13.4 10.6 8.1 4.5 1.9 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 97.4% 1.9    1.6 0.3
18-2 83.7% 3.8    3.0 0.8 0.0
17-3 63.7% 5.2    3.2 1.9 0.1
16-4 39.3% 4.2    2.0 1.9 0.3 0.0
15-5 16.2% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.3% 18.3 10.9 6.1 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 32.5% 67.5% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.9% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.5% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 2.0 1.6 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 8.1% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 2.7 1.1 2.6 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.6% 100.0% 18.1% 81.8% 3.8 0.2 1.2 3.0 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.4% 99.6% 14.9% 84.7% 5.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.2 3.8 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
14-6 14.0% 98.6% 12.2% 86.4% 6.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.8 3.6 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.4%
13-7 13.2% 93.1% 10.4% 82.7% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.2 3.1 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 92.2%
12-8 10.6% 83.8% 9.3% 74.6% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.3 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.0 1.7 82.2%
11-9 8.6% 60.1% 7.0% 53.1% 9.7 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.1 3.4 57.1%
10-10 5.7% 34.5% 7.1% 27.4% 10.6 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.7 29.5%
9-11 4.0% 10.0% 3.6% 6.4% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.6 6.6%
8-12 2.4% 4.7% 4.5% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.3%
7-13 1.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 81.6% 12.8% 68.8% 5.8 4.4 6.6 8.2 9.5 9.5 9.8 9.5 8.4 6.5 5.1 3.5 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 18.4 78.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 67.0 30.7 2.3