Northwestern
Big Ten
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#52
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#18
Pace62.1#339
Improvement+4.3#7

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#44
First Shot+4.3#68
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#102
Layup/Dunks+2.1#99
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#193
Freethrows+1.4#103
Improvement+2.8#11

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#71
First Shot+2.0#108
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#62
Layups/Dunks+7.4#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#342
Freethrows-0.6#224
Improvement+1.5#68
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.8% 5.9% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 14.8% 15.0% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.1% 51.5% 30.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.1% 49.6% 28.5%
Average Seed 7.8 7.8 9.2
.500 or above 88.4% 88.9% 67.3%
.500 or above in Conference 57.5% 57.8% 40.2%
Conference Champion 3.0% 3.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 3.5% 5.0%
First Four7.8% 7.8% 8.9%
First Round47.0% 47.5% 24.0%
Second Round24.4% 24.6% 11.8%
Sweet Sixteen8.2% 8.4% 1.8%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.1% 0.1%
Final Four1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 38 - 11
Quad 35 - 113 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 280   Binghamton W 72-61 95%     1 - 0 +1.6 -3.6 +5.5
  Nov 10, 2023 60   Dayton W 71-66 66%     2 - 0 +10.4 +14.8 -3.4
  Nov 14, 2023 302   Western Michigan W 63-59 96%     3 - 0 -6.7 -3.7 -2.3
  Nov 18, 2023 173   Rhode Island W 72-61 83%     4 - 0 +10.5 +8.1 +3.9
  Nov 19, 2023 27   Mississippi St. L 57-66 38%     4 - 1 +3.6 -0.8 +3.7
  Nov 27, 2023 160   Northern Illinois W 89-67 87%     5 - 1 +19.1 +18.0 +2.4
  Dec 01, 2023 1   Purdue W 92-88 OT 24%     6 - 1 1 - 0 +21.0 +16.0 +4.5
  Dec 10, 2023 323   Detroit Mercy W 80-59 98%    
  Dec 13, 2023 338   Chicago St. W 79-55 99%    
  Dec 16, 2023 192   @ DePaul W 74-66 77%    
  Dec 20, 2023 81   Arizona St. W 68-65 62%    
  Dec 29, 2023 262   Jackson St. W 79-61 95%    
  Jan 02, 2024 19   @ Illinois L 65-73 25%    
  Jan 07, 2024 16   Michigan St. L 63-66 41%    
  Jan 10, 2024 115   @ Penn St. W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 13, 2024 22   @ Wisconsin L 62-68 28%    
  Jan 17, 2024 66   Maryland W 67-62 66%    
  Jan 20, 2024 48   @ Nebraska L 68-72 38%    
  Jan 24, 2024 19   Illinois L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 27, 2024 26   Ohio St. L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 31, 2024 1   @ Purdue L 63-77 11%    
  Feb 03, 2024 112   @ Minnesota W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 07, 2024 48   Nebraska W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 11, 2024 115   Penn St. W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 15, 2024 63   @ Rutgers L 62-64 44%    
  Feb 18, 2024 64   @ Indiana L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 22, 2024 51   Michigan W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 28, 2024 66   @ Maryland L 64-65 44%    
  Mar 02, 2024 35   Iowa W 79-78 54%    
  Mar 06, 2024 16   @ Michigan St. L 60-69 22%    
  Mar 09, 2024 112   Minnesota W 72-63 78%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.9 2.5 0.7 0.1 7.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.5 0.7 0.1 9.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 4.1 3.9 0.9 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.6 3.5 5.0 1.3 0.1 10.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.9 5.5 2.1 0.2 11.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 4.6 3.3 0.4 10.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.7 3.3 0.5 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.3 5.4 8.2 10.7 12.4 13.8 13.0 10.7 8.3 5.6 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 99.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 79.1% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 51.3% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1
15-5 25.0% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
14-6 5.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.8% 100.0% 17.7% 82.3% 2.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.7% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 3.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.2% 99.7% 9.0% 90.7% 4.5 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 5.6% 99.5% 7.4% 92.1% 5.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 8.3% 96.5% 4.5% 92.0% 6.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.3 96.4%
12-8 10.7% 88.3% 5.0% 83.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.6 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.3 87.7%
11-9 13.0% 75.5% 4.2% 71.3% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.8 1.1 0.1 3.2 74.4%
10-10 13.8% 57.4% 3.8% 53.5% 9.9 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.2 2.1 0.1 5.9 55.7%
9-11 12.4% 25.9% 2.2% 23.7% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 0.3 9.2 24.2%
8-12 10.7% 7.2% 2.0% 5.2% 11.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.9 5.3%
7-13 8.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.0%
6-14 5.4% 2.2% 2.2% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.3
5-15 3.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.2
4-16 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.6
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 51.1% 3.9% 47.2% 7.8 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.8 3.6 5.3 6.6 7.0 7.5 8.3 6.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 48.9 49.1%