Boston University
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.0 #286
Expected Predictive Rating -9.1 #309
Pace 60.4 #358
Improvement -1.3 #250

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #156 B- D+ C- D+ C+
Defense #351 D- C F+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #266 1.18 #149 -1.4 #236
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #267 0.81 #99 -1.2 #244
Three Pointers 48% #38 1.13 #43 +6.2 #21
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #74 +3.7 #74
Freethrows 0.29 #255 70% #257 0.20 #262
Second Chance 25.2% #321 1.02 #187 0.26 #294
Turnovers 18.2% #262
Total Offense +0.2 #156

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #139 1.16 #184 -1.1 #209
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.94 #361 -2.0 #324
Three Pointers 39% #246 1.23 #365 -3.1 #309
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #346 -6.2 #347
Freethrows 0.30 #158 73% #214 0.22 #158
Second Chance 30.9% #192 1.06 #238 0.33 #218
Turnovers 12.5% #358
Total Defense -7.2 #351

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #149 0.2% #180
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.5% #73 11.8% #354
Possession Length 19.2 #341 17.3 #192
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #357 0.15 #104
Improvement -2.3 #312 +1.0 #127

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.8% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.4% 3.3% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 32.8% 41.6% 12.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.0% 5.2% 20.9%
First Four5.3% 5.8% 4.1%
First Round3.5% 4.0% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 69.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 411 - 1113 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 256 @Northeastern W 76 - 75 OT 33% -2  1 - 0 -1 -6 D D+ D- +4 A C C
 Fri, Nov 7 63 @Northwestern L 52 - 76 5% -18  1 - 1 -12 -8 C+ F F -8 D- A- F+
 Wed, Nov 12 281 Brown W 90 - 77 61% +14  2 - 1 +3 +25 A+ A+ D+ -21 F+ F F
 Sat, Nov 15 200 Merrimack L 79 - 91 44% -10  2 - 2 -18 +12 A+ C A- -31 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 182 @Columbia L 49 - 54 21% -12  2 - 3 -4 -15 F D- A +11 B A+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 165 Harvard W 75 - 74 26% -2  3 - 3 +1 +9 A+ C F -8 F+ D+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 112 @Penn St. L 87 - 96 11% -12  3 - 4 -3 +23 A+ B- A -27 F F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 194 @Northern Kentucky L 65 - 74 23% +2  3 - 5 -8 +1 B D+ F -10 A F C
 Sat, Dec 6 320 @New Hampshire L 82 - 88 OT 49% +6  3 - 6 -13 +0 D+ B D+ -13 F C F
 Wed, Dec 10 345 Maine L 59 - 69 77% -7  3 - 7 -25 -9 F B- F -17 F A C
 Sat, Dec 13 228 @Dartmouth L 64 - 77 27% -9  3 - 8 -14 -5 D D C- -10 D- B+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 314 Umass Lowell W 88 - 76 69% +9  4 - 8 -0 +16 A+ A+ D- -15 F D D-
 Wed, Dec 31 180 @Navy L 77 - 82 20% -5  4 - 9 0 - 1 -3 +10 B F+ A+ -14 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 245 American L 62 - 64 53% -5  4 - 10 0 - 2 -10 -2 F B A+ -8 D- A D-
 Wed, Jan 7 309 @Lafayette W 83 - 67 46% +10  5 - 10 1 - 2 +10 +13 A D C+ -2 C- A F
 Sat, Jan 10 336 Army W 100 - 91 75% +8  6 - 10 2 - 2 -5 +21 A+ D+ D+ -26 F F+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 300 Lehigh L 91 - 93 OT 66% -6  6 - 11 2 - 3 -13 +6 A- F B -19 D- C F
 Sat, Jan 17 318 @Loyola Maryland L 57 - 74 48% -1  6 - 12 2 - 4 -24 -21 F F F -3 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 21 309 Lafayette W 77 - 73 OT 68% -2  7 - 12 3 - 4 -8 -3 B- F+ F -5 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 221 @Colgate L 79 - 80 OT 26% +3  7 - 13 3 - 5 -1 +2 B+ F D -3 D+ F+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 180 Navy L 50 - 58 39% +2  7 - 14 3 - 6 -12 -10 D C- F -4 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 315 @Bucknell L 97 - 103 2OT 48% -3  7 - 15 3 - 7 -12 +14 D+ B- A+ -25 F F+ F
 Mon, Feb 2 326 @Holy Cross W 72 - 64 51% +3  8 - 15 4 - 7 +1 +10 A+ F B -8 C+ F+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 318 Loyola Maryland W 77 - 71 70%
 Wed, Feb 11 336 @Army W 74 - 73 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 315 Bucknell W 74 - 69 70%
 Mon, Feb 16 221 Colgate L 73 - 74 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 300 @Lehigh L 70 - 72 43%
 Wed, Feb 25 326 Holy Cross W 73 - 67 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 245 @American L 69 - 74 30%
Totals 12 - 18 8 - 10 -7 +0 B- D+ C- -7 D- C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.3 2nd
3rd 1.4 3.6 0.9 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 10.7 4.7 0.2 17.4 4th
5th 0.9 12.2 8.4 0.6 22.1 5th
6th 0.0 6.3 11.1 1.0 0.0 18.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 10.8 2.7 0.0 14.9 7th
8th 0.2 5.4 5.1 0.1 10.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 4.6 0.5 6.3 9th
10th 0.5 1.7 0.9 0.0 3.1 10th
Total 0.6 3.0 12.2 23.5 28.0 21.5 9.4 1.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.9% 13.8% 13.8% 15.3 0.2 0.1 1.6
10-8 9.4% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0 8.3
9-9 21.5% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 1.9 19.6
8-10 28.0% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 1.6 26.4
7-11 23.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.8 22.7
6-12 12.2% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.4 11.8
5-13 3.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.0
4-14 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 16.0 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 15.3 73.1 26.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 0.3%