Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#252
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#240
Pace85.5#2
Improvement-0.7#226

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#228
First Shot-2.6#244
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#141
Layup/Dunks-5.5#338
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#23
Freethrows+0.2#167
Improvement+2.7#27

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#280
First Shot-3.2#287
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#197
Layups/Dunks-1.6#244
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#242
Freethrows-1.2#265
Improvement-3.4#354
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 4.0% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 5.5% 22.6% 5.3%
.500 or above in Conference 26.3% 44.5% 26.1%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 11.9% 3.8% 12.1%
First Four0.2% 1.1% 0.2%
First Round0.8% 4.0% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 1.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 33 - 75 - 13
Quad 46 - 711 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 36 @USC L 64-94 4%     0 - 1 -14.4 -11.9 +2.1
  Sat, Nov 8 123 @Seattle W 73-71 15%     1 - 1 +7.9 -1.6 +9.4
  Wed, Nov 12 70 @Colorado St. L 79-93 7%     1 - 2 -3.0 +2.0 -4.0
  Fri, Nov 14 204 @Montana L 82-90 30%     1 - 3 -7.9 -3.2 -3.6
  Thu, Nov 20 119 @Utah W 92-85 15%     2 - 3 +13.0 +5.4 +6.4
  Mon, Nov 24 271 @Northern Arizona L 87-93 41%     2 - 4 -8.9 +3.2 -11.4
  Tue, Nov 25 213 Southeast Missouri St. L 68-84 43%     2 - 5 -19.4 -9.8 -8.6
  Thu, Dec 4 267 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94-91 40%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +0.2 +2.9 -3.2
  Sat, Dec 6 265 UC Riverside L 84-88 63%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -12.7 +4.3 -17.0
  Tue, Dec 16 169 Montana St. L 80-83 44%     3 - 7 -6.8 +3.9 -10.6
  Fri, Dec 19 30 @UCLA L 69-91 2%    
  Sun, Dec 21 168 Idaho L 82-83 45%    
  Thu, Jan 1 85 UC San Diego L 79-88 20%    
  Sat, Jan 3 276 @Long Beach St. L 80-82 43%    
  Thu, Jan 8 217 @Cal St. Northridge L 86-91 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 197 UC Davis W 81-80 50%    
  Thu, Jan 15 110 Hawaii L 76-82 30%    
  Thu, Jan 22 159 @UC Santa Barbara L 78-86 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 267 Cal St. Fullerton W 92-89 63%    
  Thu, Jan 29 312 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 84-83 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 265 @UC Riverside L 80-83 41%    
  Thu, Feb 5 217 Cal St. Northridge W 89-88 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 197 @UC Davis L 78-84 30%    
  Thu, Feb 12 121 UC Irvine L 75-80 32%    
  Sat, Feb 14 159 UC Santa Barbara L 81-83 41%    
  Fri, Feb 20 110 @Hawaii L 73-85 14%    
  Thu, Feb 26 276 Long Beach St. W 83-79 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 85 @UC San Diego L 76-91 9%    
  Thu, Mar 5 121 @UC Irvine L 72-83 16%    
  Sat, Mar 7 312 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87-80 72%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.1 2.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 6.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.2 4.5 3.5 0.9 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.4 3.1 5.9 4.0 0.8 0.0 14.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.2 7.0 4.5 0.8 0.0 16.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.6 3.7 0.7 0.0 14.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.0 6.2 3.9 0.7 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.7 4.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.9 2.6 5.4 9.2 12.6 14.6 14.8 13.4 10.5 7.3 4.5 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 59.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 25.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 16.3% 16.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.5% 16.1% 16.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-6 1.1% 11.8% 11.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
13-7 2.2% 5.5% 5.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.1
12-8 4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.3
11-9 7.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.3
10-10 10.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.4
9-11 13.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.4
8-12 14.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.7
7-13 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.6
6-14 12.6% 12.6
5-15 9.2% 9.2
4-16 5.4% 5.4
3-17 2.6% 2.6
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%