Columbia
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#133
Expected Predictive Rating+5.1#100
Pace70.9#149
Improvement+0.3#154

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#137
First Shot+0.1#173
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#112
Layup/Dunks+1.5#117
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#100
Freethrows-3.5#340
Improvement+0.4#140

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#142
First Shot-0.5#188
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#98
Layups/Dunks-3.2#293
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#196
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#71
Freethrows-0.4#210
Improvement-0.1#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.8% 21.4% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.7 13.3
.500 or above 98.4% 99.8% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.2% 88.1% 81.8%
Conference Champion 19.4% 24.6% 18.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 1.5% 3.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.8% 21.4% 16.8%
Second Round1.3% 2.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 21.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 35 - 7
Quad 414 - 218 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 336 @New Haven W 71-53 81%     1 - 0 +10.2 +1.4 +10.0
  Mon, Nov 10 6 @Connecticut L 62-89 3%     1 - 1 -2.9 +4.8 -9.1
  Thu, Nov 13 303 Umass Lowell W 86-72 87%     2 - 1 +3.5 +8.4 -4.8
  Tue, Nov 18 288 Boston University W 54-49 86%     3 - 1 -4.9 -17.9 +13.9
  Fri, Nov 21 308 @Lehigh W 82-67 75%     4 - 1 +9.5 +8.8 +1.0
  Sun, Nov 23 293 Longwood W 95-70 86%     5 - 1 +14.8 +13.7 +0.3
  Wed, Nov 26 301 @Fairfield W 106-77 72%     6 - 1 +24.6 +29.3 -5.2
  Wed, Dec 3 115 Hofstra W 72-70 55%     7 - 1 +2.4 +3.9 -1.4
  Sat, Dec 6 306 Albany W 93-65 88%     8 - 1 +16.8 +16.1 +1.1
  Tue, Dec 9 239 @Stony Brook L 73-77 OT 62%     8 - 2 -5.4 -8.5 +3.6
  Sun, Dec 21 80 @California L 71-79 22%    
  Sun, Dec 28 343 @North Florida W 86-76 83%    
  Mon, Jan 5 162 @Cornell L 84-85 46%    
  Sat, Jan 10 200 Harvard W 75-68 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 222 @Brown W 70-68 59%    
  Mon, Jan 19 78 @Yale L 74-83 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 208 @Dartmouth W 78-76 56%    
  Fri, Jan 30 254 Penn W 83-73 82%    
  Sat, Jan 31 257 Princeton W 76-66 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 162 Cornell W 87-82 67%    
  Fri, Feb 13 254 @Penn W 80-76 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 257 @Princeton W 73-69 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 208 Dartmouth W 81-73 76%    
  Fri, Feb 27 222 Brown W 73-65 78%    
  Sat, Feb 28 78 Yale L 77-80 41%    
  Sat, Mar 7 200 @Harvard W 72-71 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 3.9 6.4 5.5 2.2 0.4 19.4 1st
2nd 0.4 4.2 10.6 11.0 5.6 1.0 32.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.0 8.9 5.7 1.1 0.0 19.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 6.0 2.9 0.3 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.3 1.9 0.1 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.5 0.1 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.2 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.4 4.9 8.5 12.4 16.1 17.5 16.0 12.0 6.5 2.2 0.4 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
13-1 100.0% 2.2    2.0 0.2
12-2 84.3% 5.5    4.0 1.4
11-3 53.5% 6.4    3.4 2.8 0.2
10-4 24.5% 3.9    1.2 2.0 0.7 0.0
9-5 5.4% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 19.4% 19.4 11.2 6.8 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.4% 50.8% 50.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
13-1 2.2% 41.8% 41.8% 12.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3
12-2 6.5% 36.4% 36.4% 12.6 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.1
11-3 12.0% 30.2% 30.2% 12.9 0.0 1.1 1.8 0.7 0.0 8.4
10-4 16.0% 25.7% 25.7% 13.2 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.2 0.2 11.9
9-5 17.5% 20.0% 20.0% 13.5 0.3 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 14.0
8-6 16.1% 14.3% 14.3% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 13.8
7-7 12.4% 5.7% 5.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.7
6-8 8.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
5-9 4.9% 4.9
4-10 2.4% 2.4
3-11 0.8% 0.8
2-12 0.2% 0.2
1-13 0.1% 0.1
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.8% 17.8% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.6 7.6 5.0 1.2 0.0 82.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.4 6.7 3.3 13.3 70.0 6.7