Creighton
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.3 #58
Expected Predictive Rating +9.1 #66
Pace 67.2 #224
Improvement -3.5 #325

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #48 B C- B+ C- C
Defense #106 B- B- D+ A B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #317 1.38 #13 +0.4 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #285 0.79 #122 -1.6 #261
Three Pointers 51% #19 1.06 #115 +6.2 #22
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #51 +5.1 #51
Freethrows 0.27 #285 75% #86 0.21 #242
Second Chance 29.4% #218 1.00 #209 0.30 #220
Turnovers 14.0% #29
Total Offense +7.2 #48

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #176 1.10 #109 +0.9 #141
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #22 0.70 #79 -2.0 #320
Three Pointers 33% #351 1.00 #163 +4.1 #34
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #80 +3.1 #80
Freethrows 0.20 #3 69% #55 0.14 #3
Second Chance 27.8% #78 1.01 #162 0.28 #96
Turnovers 15.3% #275
Total Defense +2.1 #106

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #161 -1.8% #46
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.5% #47 -4.3% #89
Possession Length 17.4 #190 17.9 #290
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #41 0.10 #14
Improvement +1.2 #115 -4.7 #356

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 11.9% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.5% 9.6% 3.7%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 10.7
.500 or above 66.9% 81.5% 53.9%
.500 or above in Conference 64.1% 79.6% 50.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four4.6% 6.6% 2.9%
First Round6.1% 8.5% 4.0%
Second Round1.8% 2.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 47.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 10
Quad 24 - 56 - 14
Quad 36 - 212 - 16
Quad 45 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 287 South Dakota W 92 - 76 95% +12  1 - 0 +6 +8 F+ A+ D+ -3 C+ B+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 11 @Gonzaga L 63 - 90 11% -11  1 - 1 -4 -1 B- F+ F+ -2 D A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 337 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 45 98% +18  2 - 1 +25 +14 B+ B+ B+ +14 B+ A+ A-
 Wed, Nov 19 283 North Dakota W 75 - 60 95% +9  3 - 1 +5 +2 F A+ A- +5 B B+ D-
 Mon, Nov 24 47 Baylor L 74 - 81 41% -5  3 - 2 +5 +8 A- D+ D- -3 A+ F C
 Tue, Nov 25 4 Iowa St. L 60 - 78 12% -10  3 - 3 +4 +0 B+ F D +3 A+ F+ D-
 Thu, Nov 27 83 Oregon W 76 - 66 60% +6  4 - 3 +17 +9 C F A+ +8 A+ B D-
 Tue, Dec 2 249 Nicholls St. W 96 - 76 94% +15  5 - 3 +12 +22 A+ B- A- -10 F+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 14 @Nebraska L 50 - 71 13% -14  5 - 4 +1 -7 F+ C B- +5 A B C-
 Sat, Dec 13 92 Kansas St. L 76 - 83 73% -8  5 - 5 -4 +8 C+ D- A+ -13 B D+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 84 @Xavier W 98 - 57 49% +21  6 - 5 1 - 0 +51 +25 A+ D+ B- +24 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 95 Marquette W 84 - 63 74% +14  7 - 5 2 - 0 +24 +5 B- D+ A +17 A+ A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 22 209 Utah Tech W 92 - 69 92% +11  8 - 5 +17 +14 A+ F B- +2 C D A-
 Tue, Dec 30 66 Butler W 89 - 85 65% +7  9 - 5 3 - 0 +9 +14 A- A C+ -5 B+ B- C-
 Sun, Jan 4 53 @Seton Hall L 54 - 56 36% +5  9 - 6 3 - 1 +11 -2 D D+ A+ +13 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 32 @Villanova W 76 - 72 22% -2  10 - 6 4 - 1 +21 +20 A+ B+ A+ +2 A B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 18 St. John's L 73 - 90 31% -13  10 - 7 4 - 2 -2 +10 A+ F A+ -13 F A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 78 Georgetown W 86 - 83 OT 69% -1  11 - 7 5 - 2 +7 +22 A+ C- A+ -15 F F C-
 Fri, Jan 16 67 @Providence L 88 - 93 42% -1  11 - 8 5 - 3 +6 +9 D+ A- B -3 A F D+
 Wed, Jan 21 84 Xavier W 94 - 93 71% +1  12 - 8 6 - 3 +5 +20 A+ F+ A+ -15 F C C
 Tue, Jan 27 95 @Marquette L 62 - 86 52% -17  12 - 9 6 - 4 -15 -5 C F C -10 F B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 9 Connecticut L 58 - 85 21% -11  12 - 10 6 - 5 -9 +5 B- C+ A- -19 C F D-
 Wed, Feb 4 78 @Georgetown L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 53 Seton Hall W 70 - 68 58%
 Wed, Feb 11 94 @DePaul W 74 - 73 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 32 Villanova L 71 - 73 44%
 Wed, Feb 18 9 @Connecticut L 65 - 80 8%
 Sat, Feb 21 18 @St. John's L 74 - 85 15%
 Wed, Feb 25 94 DePaul W 77 - 70 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 67 Providence W 87 - 83 65%
 Wed, Mar 4 66 @Butler L 78 - 80 42%
Totals 16 - 15 10 - 10 +9 +7 B C- B+ +2 B- B- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.9 3.9 2.5 0.6 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 2.7 13.3 15.5 7.9 1.3 0.1 40.7 4th
5th 1.9 11.7 12.0 3.5 0.2 29.2 5th
6th 0.2 5.1 5.7 0.8 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.6 0.4 5.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 0.6 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.4 3.8 11.2 20.5 26.4 20.9 12.1 3.9 0.8 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 20.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.8% 61.3% 11.3% 50.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 56.3%
13-7 3.9% 49.0% 5.3% 43.7% 10.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.0 2.0 46.1%
12-8 12.1% 24.3% 4.1% 20.1% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 0.1 9.2 21.0%
11-9 20.9% 9.7% 2.8% 6.9% 10.8 0.1 0.3 1.5 0.1 18.9 7.1%
10-10 26.4% 2.9% 1.9% 1.1% 11.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 25.6 1.1%
9-11 20.5% 1.1% 1.1% 11.4 0.1 0.1 20.3
8-12 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 11.1
7-13 3.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.0 0.0 3.8
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.5% 2.2% 6.3% 10.6 91.5 6.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%